This is ForecastNest’s 1 day forecast for SOXL, created 2026-09-05 02:22 UTC. The window closed 2026-09-08 20:00 UTC, when SOXL closed at $123.37, up 5.0% from $117.52 when the forecast was made. It traded between $121.60 and $127.54 along the way (+3.5% to +8.5%).
Prediction window: Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.
Prediction time: 2026-09-05 02:22 UTC (9/4/2026, 10:22:09 PM EDT).
Valid until: 2026-09-08 20:00 UTC (9/8/2026, 4:00:00 PM EDT). Target session: 2026-09-08 (New York); Session close. Lead time to expiry: 89.63 elapsed hours. Timing: Overnight. Based on stored prediction time, not verified model execution time.
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5 of the 5 models called a direction, and 3 of those calls were right. Each model is also asked to find the price it was forecasting from when it answers, shown as the dashed line inside its box in the picture below. All models except Gemini 1.5 Pro and DeepSeek-R1 found it accurately.
Below are the details.
| Model | Range | Move | Confidence | Price it found | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Luna | $108.00–$126.50 | -7.7% to +8.1% | 77% | $117.05 | 81.9 | right |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | $110.50–$123.00 | -4.9% to +5.9% | 55% | $116.20 | 71.0 | right |
| Grok 4.5 | $105.00–$130.00 | -10.5% to +10.8% | 38% | $117.28 | 77.9 | right |
| DeepSeek-R1 | $115.00–$140.00 | -9.9% to +9.7% | 50% | $127.65 | 3.5 | wrong |
| claude-opus-5 (Claude Opus 5) | $106.00–$125.50 | -9.0% to +7.7% | 43% | $116.53 | 30.8 | wrong |
How these models have done on SOXL over 1 day
This forecast is settled and is included in the statistics below. The remaining records are forecasts created before 2026-09-05 02:22 UTC. Only settled directional calls count toward accuracy.
| Model | Asked | Still open | No call | Called up | Called down | Right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grok 4.5 | 7 | — | 0 | 6 · 5 right | 1 · 0 right | 71% (5/7) |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | 7 | — | 0 | 3 · 3 right | 4 · 1 right | 57% (4/7) |
| GPT-5.6 Luna | 7 | — | 1 | 2 · 1 right | 4 · 1 right | 33% (2/6) |
| claude-opus-5 (Claude Opus 5) | 6 | — | 0 | — | 6 · 1 right | 17% (1/6) |
| DeepSeek-R1 | 7 | — | 0 | 2 · 1 right | 5 · 0 right | 14% (1/7) |
Every published SOXL forecast these models made over 1 day before this question was asked, on 2026-09-05 02:22 UTC, plus this settled forecast. Forecasts created after this question are excluded. Results reflect the settlements available when this article is generated. A day-ahead call and a week-ahead one are counted separately — they are different questions. Only settled forecasts are graded, so open + no call + up + down adds up to asked. “No call” is a range too centred on the price to be pointing anywhere. Accuracy counts only forecasts that have settled, and the count behind it is shown beside it — a single right call is not a 100% record.
What each model said
GPT-5.6 Luna
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) Market regime: SOXL closed September 4 at $117.54, up 10.12% on the session. Investing.com recorded the latest available after-hours quote at $117.05 at 21:08 UTC, which is before the requested 22:22 UTC timestamp; because I could not verify a later quote, I classify the data as partial and use $117.05 as the most recent observable price. ChartExchange and FinancialContent also confirm that SOXL traded above $117 during the September 4 session. Sources: Investing.com, ChartExchange and FinancialContent. ([ng.investing.com](https://ng.investing.com/etfs/direxion-dly-semiconductor-bull-3x-technical?utm_source=chatgpt.com))
(2) Technical synthesis: The September 4 move materially improved short-term momentum. Investing.com's 20:00 GMT snapshot showed RSI(14) at 63.45, MACD at +1.77, and the 5-, 10-, 20- and 50-day moving averages all signaling buy; however, Stochastic and several other oscillators were already overbought, while the 200-day average remained around $123.38 and was still classified as sell. This combination favors continuation over the immediate short horizon but also raises the probability of a pullback near the $120-$124 area. Source: Investing.com. ([ng.investing.com](https://ng.investing.com/etfs/direxion-dly-semiconductor-bull-3x-technical?utm_source=chatgpt.com))
(3) Price range: I estimate a one-day trading range of $108.00-$126.50 from the $117.05 reference. The lower bound allows a retracement toward the September 3 close around $106.74 and the recent congestion near $108-$111, while the upper bound permits a continuation toward and slightly above the 200-day average near $123.38. The unusually large September 4 move and SOXL's 3x daily leverage justify a broad range. Sources: StockAnalysis and Investing.com. ([stockanalysis.com](https://stockanalysis.com/etf/soxl/history/?utm_source=chatgpt.com))
(4) Catalysts: Friday's U.S. employment report produced a major macro repricing: August payrolls increased by 162,000, unemployment held at 4.1%, and the probability of a September Fed rate hike rose materially. Despite that, semiconductor stocks showed exceptional relative strength: Reuters reported the semiconductor sector gained about 3.4%, while Investopedia reported the PHLX Semiconductor Index rose more than 3%. The next major macro catalysts are August PPI and CPI next week, followed by the Federal Reserve meeting on September 15-16. Sources: Reuters, Investopedia and the Federal Reserve calendar. ([reuters.com](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-1-2026-09-04/?utm_source=chatgpt.com))
(5) Counter-argument: The strongest bullish argument is sector leadership: semiconductor and memory stocks rallied sharply even while the S&P 500 declined, indicating that AI and chip-specific demand is currently overpowering some rate-related pressure. The strongest bearish argument is technical exhaustion after a 10% one-day SOXL surge, combined with the 200-day average near $123.38 and materially higher Treasury yields. A reversal in semiconductor leadership or a stronger-than-expected inflation signal would weaken the bullish interpretation quickly. Sources: Barron's, Reuters and Investing.com. ([barrons.com](https://www.barrons.com/livecoverage/stock-market-news-today-090426/card/chip-stocks-pop-despite-jobs-day-weakness-0Uyts5V9lRpJO9DFOCmF?utm_source=chatgpt.com))
(6) Confidence: Confidence is 77%. The short-term signals are bullish because momentum, relative strength and moving-average alignment improved dramatically on September 4. I avoid a stronger 1d or 7d call because the stock is entering a holiday-shortened period after an unusually large one-day advance, while the next inflation releases can quickly alter the rate environment. The 30d signal remains NEUTRAL because the macro backdrop is still divided between strong semiconductor demand and higher-rate/inflation pressure.
Gemini 1.5 Pro
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) Data retrieval and sources: I retrieved live historical price data indicating that SOXL closed at $116.20 on Friday, September 4, 2026, showing significant intra-day volatility with a low of $109.73 and a high of $117.86.
(2) Market regime: The asset is a 3X leveraged ETF, meaning its price action amplifies the underlying ICE Semiconductor Index. The recent historical data shows severe chop, with the ETF recovering from sub-$100 levels in late July but remaining highly sensitive to macroeconomic data and tech sector sentiment.
(3) Price range justification: Anchoring from the $116.20 close, I am placing the 1-day range between $110.50 and $123.00. Given the 3X leverage, a daily move of 5% to 6% is standard, and this range accommodates typical intraday swings without assuming a severe directional breakout.
(4) Scheduled catalysts: With the Friday non-farm payrolls data fully absorbed into the September 4 close, the primary driver for the next trading session will be weekend macro developments, foreign market opens on Monday, and any emergent news surrounding major semiconductor holdings like Nvidia or AMD.
(5) Counter-arguments and invalidation: The strongest counter-argument to a mild bullish drift is the inherent decay and compounding risk of a leveraged ETF in a choppy market. Any negative fundamental news for the tech sector over the weekend would quickly invalidate the call and push the asset below the $110 support level.
(6) Confidence assessment: My confidence is 55% because forecasting a 3X leveraged product over a single day is inherently precarious; its outsized exposure to gap opens and rapid technical reversals makes precision difficult.
Grok 4.5
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Friday 4 Sep 2026 close was $117.28 (up 9.87% from Thursday’s $106.74), day range $109.73-$118.18, volume ~63M, per MarketWatch, ChartExchange, Motley Fool, Robinhood and Stock Alarm Pro. After-hours held near $116.61-$116.86. Prior closes: 3 Sep $106.74, 2 Sep $106.35.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: Sharp rebound session for the 3x leveraged semiconductor ETF, reversing recent weakness with a near-10% gain. Elevated intraday volatility remains characteristic of the product’s extreme leverage and sensitivity to semiconductor moves.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to the $117.28 Friday close. Recent daily ranges of $8-15+ and 3x leverage imply potential 1-day moves of 8-12% or more. Lower bound near $105 allows for partial giveback of the rebound; upper bound near $130 covers extension of the strong session. Range is modestly wider on the upside reflecting momentum.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: Markets closed over the weekend; Monday session will reflect any overnight global or sector developments. No major semiconductor-specific events dominate the immediate next session.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: A sharp reversal or risk-off open could push SOXL below $105; continued risk appetite could drive a break above $130. Sustained trade outside the stated range on volume would overturn the mild bullish lean.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Live Friday close is confirmed and the session was strongly positive, yet 3x leveraged ETFs produce large path-dependent noise on single-day horizons; residual volatility and weekend gap risk keep conviction moderate-to-low.
DeepSeek-R1
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) Current price and data sources: At the forecast window start (2026-09-05 02:22 UTC), SOXL is in after-hours trading following the September 4 regular session. The regular session close was $128.32, up 13.79% on the day. After-hours trading shows $127.65, down 0.52% from the close. The intraday high reached $129.90, and the 52-week range is $25.60-$302.00. I have anchored my range to the after-hours quote of $127.65. Note that some sources show a closing price of $114.54 or $116.12, but I have used the $128.32 close and $127.65 after-hours quote as the most current available.
(2) Current market regime: SOXL is in a powerful recovery rally after a brutal decline. The ETF had fallen from approximately $150 to near $87, a decline of over 40%, triggering extreme oversold conditions and a strong technical rebound. The September 4 rally of 13.79% was driven by a 3%+ surge in the PHLX Semiconductor Index, with strength across memory chips and AI-related names. The ETF moved above its 200-day moving average of $108.42 during the session, a widely watched technical level that can signal improving intermediate-term price momentum. The 200-day moving average is often used to assess longer-term trend direction; when an ETF climbs back above that level after trading below it, market participants often view the shift as a sign that buying pressure is strengthening. JPMorgan data shows semiconductor ETFs saw net inflows of approximately $3.3 billion last week, with leveraged ETFs attracting about $800 million, of which roughly $600 million flowed into SOXL.
(3) Price range justification: I expect SOXL to trade between $115.00 and $140.00 over the next 1-day window. The lower bound of $115.00 is informed by the $117.86 intraday high from September 4 and the $116.12 recent trade level, with $115 representing a key support level above the 200-day moving average of $108.42. The upper bound of $140.00 is informed by the $150 level that acted as resistance before the recent decline and the $144.40-$148.78 range identified in recent price action. The range is asymmetric to the upside because the ETF is in a momentum-driven recovery with strong sector tailwinds and has just broken above a key technical level (the 200-day moving average), but the 3× leverage amplifies volatility in both directions.
(4) Scheduled catalysts inside the window: The immediate 1-day window (September 5) has no major U.S. economic data releases scheduled. However, the market will continue to digest the September 4 rally and its implications for semiconductor sector sentiment. Korean retail investors continue to be a dominant force, holding 27.1% of SOXL's market cap and driving $453 million in trading volume on September 1 alone. However, recent data shows Korean retail investors have shifted to net selling of SOXL, with net selling reaching $1.106 billion (approximately 1.4938 trillion Korean won), the largest net selling among all U.S. stocks. The Blue Ocean ATS suspended real-time quotes for SOXL to Korean brokerages on September 1 due to SEC volume limits, which may reduce after-hours liquidity and increase volatility.
(5) Strongest counter-argument: The rally could be a bear-market bounce within a broader downtrend. SOXL remains 57.7% below its 52-week high of $302.00, and the 50-day moving average sits well above the current price. The fund has a beta of 8.20 over 6 months, making it extremely sensitive to any market reversal. Technical analysis shows that on the 4-hour time frame, the trading signal is Sell, with 7 oscillators suggesting sell, 3 suggesting buy, and 2 neutral. Additionally, the shift from Korean retail buying to net selling could remove a key source of support. If semiconductor stocks give back today's gains or if broader market sentiment sours, SOXL could retest the $115 level or lower. A break below $115.00 would invalidate the bullish short-term view and flip the 1-day signal to bearish.
(6) Confidence rationale: My confidence is 50%, reflecting the extreme volatility of a 3× leveraged ETF and the mixed signals from technical indicators. The technical rebound is real and supported by sector strength and the breakout above the 200-day moving average, but the ETF's 3× leverage means any adverse move in the underlying semiconductor index will be amplified. The 1-day window is too short for fundamentals to matter; it will be driven by pre-market momentum, semiconductor index moves, and Korean retail flow dynamics. The shift from Korean retail buying to net selling adds a layer of uncertainty. I am more confident in the $115.00-$140.00 range than in the direction within it, and I acknowledge that a violent move in either direction is possible given the ETF's 8.20 beta and extreme volatility.
claude-opus-5 (Claude Opus 5)
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) What I found, and where: SOXL closed Friday September 4 at $117.28, up $10.54 or 9.87%, in a $109.73-$118.18 range on 63.5M shares - well above its recent volume pace. Extended-hours trading then faded it to $116.53 (-0.64%) with the last print timestamped 7:49pm EDT, roughly two and a half hours before this 02:22 UTC baseline and just ahead of the 8:00pm close of extended hours, so that is my anchor rather than the 4pm close (stockanalysis.com). The 52-week range is $23.98-$302.00, leaving SOXL about 61% below its own high even after a near-10% session.
(2) Current market regime: semiconductors are being bought against the macro rather than with it. August payrolls printed 162,000 versus forecasts near 65,000, pushing September rate-hike odds to 60.2% from 49.4% (247wallst.com), though TheStreet put the same pricing nearer 50% after Governor Waller's dovish remarks - treat the level as rising and contested. Front-end Treasury yields set 52-week highs intraday. Semis rallied anyway: SOXX +3% to $517.91, Intel +4% to $95.41, AMD +3% to $471.05, NVIDIA +2% to $232.37, while QQQ managed +0.02% and SPY closed down 0.39% (247wallst.com, stockanalysis.com). That is capital rotating specifically into semiconductors while the broad tape lags, anchored by NVIDIA revenue growth of 105.8% year over year and AMD at 50.1% with Data Center more than doubling.
(3) Price range justification: the governing fact is that nothing can trade inside this window. It runs Friday 10:22pm ET to Saturday 10:22pm ET - cash markets shut, extended hours finished at 8:00pm ET, and CME equity futures do not reopen until Sunday 6:00pm ET, after this window has already closed. Read at window close, SOXL is $116.53 and cannot be anything else. The band $106.00 to $125.50 is therefore sized for the next print that actually exists - Tuesday September 8, since Monday September 7 is a market holiday (financecalendar.com) - using SOXL's recent 6-8% daily sigma plus a three-day weekend gap allowance. It carries a deliberate mild downward tilt, about 9.0% of room below versus 7.7% above, reflecting extension after a 9.87% single session and the mechanical drag a 3x daily-reset product carries through high-realized-variance stretches.
(4) Catalysts inside the window: none. Saturday carries no scheduled releases and no market to price them into. The calendar resumes after this window expires: Monday September 7 is Labor Day with markets closed, Tuesday brings only NFIB Small Business Optimism and Consumer Credit, Thursday September 10 carries PPI and jobless claims at 8:30am ET, and Friday September 11 delivers August CPI at 8:30am ET (Kiplinger economic calendar). No bellwether semiconductor earnings fall inside the coming week either - Broadcom already reported September 3 - so the sector trades on macro repricing rather than company news.
(5) Strongest counter-argument and invalidation: on the near horizons there is nothing to argue about, since a closed market cannot move; the only real risk I carry there is mis-anchoring, if my $116.53 print is wrong. On the 7d call, Friday is direct evidence against me - the sector absorbed a hawkish payrolls surprise and rallied 3% at the index level regardless, which is continuation behavior, and Intel's 148% year-to-date run shows how much momentum capital is committed here. That call is invalidated if CPI prints at or below consensus and hike odds retreat, or if SOXL holds above Friday's $109.73 low through the first sessions of the week on continued inflows. It rests on positioning and event asymmetry, not on any deterioration in semiconductor fundamentals - there is none visible in the data I found.
(6) Confidence justification: 43%, blending two very different things. The 1h, 4h and 1d NEUTRAL signals are near-certain by construction rather than judgment - no session exists inside the window, so I would put very high confidence on an unchanged close. The 7d MILD BEARISH is much weaker, a modest mean-reversion-plus-binary-event skew made against a tape that just declined to sell off on hawkish news. The 30d NEUTRAL is a genuine abstention: the September 16 FOMC and weak September seasonality on one side, demonstrated rotation into the sector on the other, and I do not think four weeks of a 3x product resolves that cleanly enough to call.
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