This is ForecastNest’s 1 day forecast for IONQ, created 2026-09-09 02:27 UTC. The window closed 2026-09-09 20:00 UTC, when IONQ closed at $38.13, down 5.8% from $40.47 when the forecast was made. It traded between $38.10 and $39.91 along the way (-5.9% to -1.4%).
Prediction window: Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.
Prediction time: 2026-09-09 02:27 UTC (9/8/2026, 10:27:36 PM EDT).
Valid until: 2026-09-09 20:00 UTC (9/9/2026, 4:00:00 PM EDT). Target session: 2026-09-09 (New York); Session close. Lead time to expiry: 17.54 elapsed hours. Timing: Overnight. Based on stored prediction time, not verified model execution time.
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4 of the 6 models called a direction, and 1 of those calls were right. Each model is also asked to find the price it was forecasting from when it answers, shown as the dashed line inside its box in the picture below. All models except claude-opus-5 found it accurately.
Below are the details.
| Model | Range | Move | Confidence | Price it found | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | $37.50–$43.50 | -7.3% to +7.5% | 72% | $40.46 | 52.2 | no call |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | $37.50–$43.50 | -7.3% to +7.5% | 60% | $40.47 | 51.6 | no call |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | $38.50–$43.00 | -4.9% to +6.3% | 70% | $40.47 | 11.2 | wrong |
| Grok 4.5 | $37.50–$43.00 | -6.7% to +7.0% | 35% | $40.20 | 30.2 | wrong |
| deepseek | $38.50–$44.50 | -4.9% to +10.0% | 55% | $40.47 | 12.9 | wrong |
| claude-opus-5 | $36.60–$42.50 | -8.6% to +6.2% | 43% | $40.03 | 73.1 | right |
How these models have done on IONQ over 1 day
This forecast is settled and is included in the statistics below. The remaining records are forecasts created before 2026-09-09 02:27 UTC. Only settled directional calls count toward accuracy.
| Model | Asked | Still open | No call | Called up | Called down | Right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | 8 | — | 2 | 5 · 5 right | 1 · 0 right | 83% (5/6) |
| Grok 4.5 | 8 | — | 1 | 6 · 4 right | 1 · 0 right | 57% (4/7) |
| deepseek | 8 | — | 0 | 6 · 4 right | 2 · 0 right | 50% (4/8) |
| claude-opus-5 | 8 | — | 1 | — | 7 · 2 right | 29% (2/7) |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | 7 | — | 2 | 3 · 1 right | 2 · 0 right | 20% (1/5) |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | 1 | — | 1 | — | — | — |
Every published IONQ forecast these models made over 1 day before this question was asked, on 2026-09-09 02:27 UTC, plus this settled forecast. Forecasts created after this question are excluded. Results reflect the settlements available when this article is generated. A day-ahead call and a week-ahead one are counted separately — they are different questions. Only settled forecasts are graded, so open + no call + up + down adds up to asked. “No call” is a range too centred on the price to be pointing anywhere. Accuracy counts only forecasts that have settled, and the count behind it is shown beside it — a single right call is not a 100% record.
What each model said
GPT-5.6 Sol
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) Price and data: The September 8 session was exceptionally volatile. IONQ opened near $42.32, reached $44.43 and ultimately closed around $39.60 according to StockAnalysis, versus $39.52 on September 4. StatMuse subsequently showed late after-hours trading around $40.46, while MarketScreener reported $40.16 at 18:07:44 ET. I use $40.46 as the closest available reference, but because I could not verify a transaction at or after exactly 02:27 UTC, data access is partial. Sources: StockAnalysis, StatMuse and MarketScreener.
(2) Market regime: IONQ experienced a classic event-driven spike followed by a major intraday reversal. Investor's Business Daily reported the shares up about 6% premarket after IonQ raised its 2026 revenue outlook, and the stock subsequently reached $44.43, but it surrendered the advance during and after Investor Day. Volume reached roughly 29 million shares according to StockAnalysis, more than twice September 4 volume. That combination of unusually high volume, a failed breakout and a close near the day's low makes the immediate 4h and 1d setup mildly bearish despite strong fundamental announcements. Sources: Investor's Business Daily and StockAnalysis.
(3) Price range: I estimate $37.50-$43.50 over the next day from the $40.46 reference. The September 8 intraday span of roughly $39.60-$44.43 demonstrates unusually high realized volatility, while recent closes before the event clustered around $37.64-$39.52. The lower bound allows a retracement toward that pre-event region; the upper bound allows a partial recovery without assuming an immediate retest of the $44.43 event-day high. The range is intentionally skewed slightly downward because the initial positive reaction failed to hold. Sources: StockAnalysis and Investing.com.
(4) Catalysts: IonQ delivered several material announcements on September 8. Its SEC-filed 8-K raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $450-$460 million following the SkyWater acquisition, versus the prior $280-$290 million outlook reported by Investor's Business Daily. IonQ also unveiled Superion 256, its sixth-generation quantum platform, with first chips already fabricated at SkyWater and customer deliveries planned for 2027. Barron's reported that the SkyWater combination could accelerate IonQ's longer-term system roadmap. These announcements remain fresh enough to drive follow-through or reassessment during September 9. Sources: IonQ Investor Relations, SEC, Investor's Business Daily and Barron's.
(5) Counter-argument: The strongest bullish argument is that the underlying Investor Day information was substantial rather than promotional alone: sharply higher consolidated revenue guidance, an integrated manufacturing strategy, Superion 256 hardware progress and expansion into networking and quantum security all strengthen IonQ's long-term narrative. The bearish counterpoint is the market's actual reaction: investors had the opportunity to evaluate those announcements and still drove the shares down from $44.43 toward $40. A recovery through roughly $42.50-$43.00 would weaken the short-term bearish interpretation, while renewed movement below the September 8 low would reinforce it. Sources: IonQ Investor Relations, SEC, Barron's and StockAnalysis.
(6) Confidence: Confidence is 72%. The 1d signal is MILD BEARISH because the failed event-driven breakout and heavy-volume reversal are meaningful short-term evidence, but I avoid BEARISH because after-hours pricing recovered from the regular-session low and the fundamental news itself was constructive. The 7d signal is NEUTRAL because post-event price discovery could remain unusually volatile. The 30d signal remains MILD BULLISH because the SkyWater integration, higher revenue outlook and Superion roadmap improve the longer-horizon fundamental narrative even though they do not eliminate valuation, execution and financing risks.
Muse Spark 1.1
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Finnhub shows IONQ current price $40.47, open $42.32, high $44.43, low $39.45, previous close $39.52. MacroTrends confirms latest close Sep 08, 2026 is $40.47, all-time high $82.09 Oct 13, 2025, 52-week high $84.64. MarketBeat notes IONQ gap up last $42.8380 volume 9.7M, raised 2026 revenue outlook to $450-460M with SkyWater acquisition from July 31. TipRanks notes Northland raised projected level to $70 from $55 Outperform citing investor day Sep 8 Broad Quantum Advantage.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: IONQ 5-day +3.24%, 1-month -8.91%, 6-month +13.27%, YTD -9.81% per Finnhub. Quantum cohort diverging per Barchart Aug 19: IONQ, Rigetti, D-Wave diverging after Q2 2026. High beta 3.35, $13B+ market cap at 50x sales needs triple-digit growth. Investor day Sep 8 is pivotal catalyst.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored at $40.47, range $37.5-$43.5 skews slightly up ($3.03 upside vs $2.97 downside) reflecting mild bullish investor day expectations. Upper $43.5 near recent intraday high $44.43 and gap up $42.84, lower $37.5 near previous close $39.52 support minus 5%. ATR ~6-8% supports ~$3 band.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: Investor day Sep 8 is primary catalyst, expected to strengthen Broad Quantum Advantage case per Northland. Heavy call buying noted Sep 8 afternoon +4.6% after target raise per FinancialContent. SkyWater integration updates likely.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: $254.7M operating loss through 6 months 2026, valuation stretched 50x revenue, and quantum peers down -8.5% same day per Barchart could drag IONQ if investor day underwhelms. Invalidation is close below $37.5 on high volume with lack of concrete revenue.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Confidence 60% moderate-high due to concrete catalyst (investor day) and target raise to $70 driving momentum, plus 3.24% 5-day uptrend. Tempered by high beta, YTD negative, and profitability concerns.
Gemini 1.5 Pro
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) Sources and data: IonQ (IONQ) closed at $40.47 on September 8, 2026, according to live Google Finance market data. Earlier that day, the company hosted its Investor Day and announced a raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $450 to $460 million following its recent SkyWater Technology acquisition, as reported by The Motley Fool and Business Wire.
(2) Market regime: The market regime for quantum computing is transitioning from purely speculative to fundamentally driven, fueled by commercial maturation and strategic M&A. IonQ's shift toward a full-stack foundry model is attracting growth-oriented capital, though the sector remains characterized by elevated intraday volatility and momentum-driven trading.
(3) Price range justification: The projected range of $38.50-$43.00 frames the extreme volatility observed during Tuesday's session. The stock surged above $44.00 on the opening bell before fading aggressively to close at $40.47. Strong near-term support sits around $38.50 to $39.00 (Monday's close), while the $43.00 level will now act as immediate overhead resistance.
(4) Scheduled catalysts: The dominant near-term catalysts will be the flow of Wall Street analyst notes, ratings changes, and projected level adjustments issued in response to Tuesday's Investor Day presentation and upward revenue revisions.
(5) Counter-argument and invalidation: The primary counter-argument to a bullish continuation is classic
Grok 4.5
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Live data from Stocknear, StockAnalysis, FinanceCharts, MarketWatch and TradeSmith show IONQ closing at $40.47 on 8 September 2026 (up 2.40 percent) after a wide intraday range of $39.45-$44.43. After-hours quotes settled near $40.02-$40.03. Volume was elevated at roughly 40 million shares.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: IONQ remains a high-volatility quantum-computing name that has pulled back from mid-summer highs near $48-$55 and is now consolidating in the high $30s to low $40s. Broader equity conditions are still shaped by elevated rate-hike odds after strong labor data, which tends to pressure speculative growth stocks. Single-stock realized volatility remains elevated.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored near $40.20, the one-day range of $37.50-$43.00 reflects recent daily swings of 5-12 percent plus a buffer for overnight gaps. Near-term support sits around the $37.50-$39.00 zone that marked prior session lows; resistance is clustered near the $42.50-$44.00 area that capped the 8 September high.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: No company-specific earnings or major corporate events fall inside the exact 24-hour window starting 02:27 UTC on 9 September. Macro data (PPI, CPI) and the mid-month FOMC sit outside the horizon, so the session is more likely to be driven by residual speculative flows and any overnight equity or rates moves.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: A sharp risk-on open or renewed quantum-computing sector bid could push IONQ back toward $42.50-$43.00 and invalidate the mild short-term caution. Conversely, a broader equity sell-off or rise in yields would favor the lower end of the range. The one-day call remains neutral because neither catalyst is confirmed inside the window.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Confidence is modest at 35 percent because a single trading day for a high-beta speculative name is dominated by noise and liquidity. Live price data are consistent across sources, yet the absence of a decisive catalyst and mixed multi-timeframe signals keep conviction limited.
deepseek
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) Price discovery and sources: As of the September 9, 2026 window start, IONQ is trading at approximately $40.47, based on the September 8 close reported by Yahoo Finance, Stock Analysis, and other sources. The stock experienced significant intraday volatility on September 8, ranging from a low of $39.45 to a high of $44.43, before settling near the open. In after-hours trading, the stock has edged slightly lower to around $40.36. The 52-week range is $25.89 to $84.64.
(2) Current market regime: IONQ is in a strong fundamental uptrend driven by multiple positive catalysts. On September 8, the company raised its full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $450-$460 million, up from a prior midpoint of $285 million, following the acquisition of SkyWater Technology. The company also debuted its sixth-generation quantum computing platform, IonQ Superion 256, and announced an $8.18 million quantum security deal. Analysts maintain a consensus rating of 'Strong Buy' with an average projected level of $67.68, implying ~67% upside. However, the stock is coming off a volatile session with a wide intraday range and remains below key moving averages (100-day SMA of $47.80 and 200-day SMA of $44.22), which could act as resistance.
(3) Price range justification: The 1-day forecast range of $38.50-$44.50 represents a ±7.4% band around the current price, reflecting the stock's elevated volatility (beta of 3.30). The lower bound of $38.50 is defined by the pre-market and early session support levels observed on September 8, just below the day's low of $39.45. A break below $38.50 would signal a loss of near-term momentum. The upper bound of $44.50 is just above the September 8 intraday high of $44.43 and aligns with the next psychological resistance level. The range is slightly asymmetric to the upside, reflecting the strong fundamental catalysts and analyst targets, but the tight 24-hour window and post-rally profit-taking temper the magnitude.
(4) Catalysts inside the window: The immediate 24-hour window is light on additional company-specific events following the busy September 8 Investor Day. However, the market will continue to digest the revenue guidance raise, Superion 256 launch, and quantum security deal. Broader market sentiment-particularly regarding interest rates and technology sector flows-will influence IONQ, as quantum computing stocks are sensitive to risk appetite. The next major earnings date is estimated for November 4, 2026.
(5) Strongest counter-argument and invalidation: The most compelling bearish case is that the stock is overextended in the short term and the rally may have been driven by news-driven momentum rather than fundamental buying. IONQ has rallied from ~$37 on September 4 to $40.47, a gain of over 9% in just two trading sessions. The stock remains deeply unprofitable (EPS TTM of -$3.87) with a high price-to-sales ratio. Rising Treasury yields could also pressure high-growth, loss-making technology names. My mildly bullish view would be invalidated if IONQ breaks below $39.45 (the September 8 low) on high volume, suggesting the buying pressure has exhausted. Conversely, a sustained move above $44.43 would confirm breakout strength toward the $45-$47 zone.
(6) Confidence assessment: Confidence is 55%, reflecting a constructive fundamental outlook tempered by short-term technical uncertainty. The raised guidance, new product launch, strong analyst consensus, and structural tailwinds from quantum computing demand support a bullish bias. However, the stock's extreme volatility, wide intraday range on September 8, lack of immediate catalysts within the 24-hour window, and the stock's position below key moving averages introduce meaningful downside risk. The range accounts for this two-sided risk while leaning slightly bullish on balance.
claude-opus-5
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) What I found, and where: IONQ closed Tuesday September 8 at $40.47, up 2.40%, but the range tells the real story - a high of $44.43 against a low of $39.45, a 12.6% swing, on 40.2M shares, roughly 73% above its three-month average (stockanalysis.com, Motley Fool). Extended hours took it lower still to $40.03 at 7:59pm EDT, the last print before this 02:27 UTC baseline and my anchor. The driver was IonQ's investor day: 2026 revenue guidance raised to $450-460 million from a prior midpoint near $285 million, following completion of the SkyWater Technology acquisition on July 31, plus an $8.18 million quantum-security agreement with Congruity360 and the claim that Q2 revenue of $80 million was roughly double all other quantum peers combined (Motley Fool). One source conflict to flag: 247wallst.com described the same event as a raise to $280-290 million, which is the pre-existing August 6 guidance rather than a raise, so I am treating the Motley Fool figures as correct. Market cap is $16.08B and the 52-week range is $25.89-$84.64, leaving the stock about 52% below its high.
(2) Current market regime: the price action matters more than the headline. A roughly 58% increase to full-year revenue guidance took the stock up 11% intraday and it surrendered nearly all of it, closing $3.96 off the high and then fading further after hours. That is distribution into strength on triple-normal volume, and there is a coherent reason for it - much of the raise is acquisition-driven rather than organic, since SkyWater is a semiconductor foundry whose revenue carries a very different quality and multiple than quantum compute revenue. Separately, the sector got a policy tailwind: the Commerce Department finalized CHIPS Act awards of $100 million each to Rigetti and D-Wave in exchange for minority non-controlling government equity stakes, lifting RGTI about 6% and QBTS about 5%, though both remain down 26% and 33% year to date (247wallst.com). The macro backdrop is hostile to this cohort: Brent at $99.46 near a seven-week high on Strait of Hormuz conflict (Trading Economics), Treasury yields higher after Friday's 162,000 payrolls print, and SPY down 0.55% Tuesday.
(3) Price range justification: the window covers one full cash session, Wednesday September 9, plus extended hours. Tuesday's 12.6% range is not a normal baseline - the prior ten sessions ran closer to 5% daily sigma - but post-event sessions typically stay elevated, so I am sizing off roughly 8-9%. From the $40.03 anchor that gives $36.60 to $42.50: about 8.6% of room below versus 6.2% above. The upper bound sits deliberately well beneath Tuesday's $44.43 high, because reclaiming that level would mean the market has decided to pay for the new guidance after all, which is the specific outcome this call is betting against.
(4) Scheduled catalysts inside the window: none. Wednesday September 9 carries no noteworthy US economic releases and no bellwether earnings (FinancialJuice week-ahead, Kiplinger calendar), and IonQ's own event has now passed - the next company milestone is Q3 results in November. What is likely to drive the session is continued digestion of the investor-day materials, sympathy flow from the CHIPS Act headlines still circulating through the quantum basket, and positioning ahead of the two prints that sit just outside this window: August PPI Thursday September 10 at 8:30am ET and August CPI Friday September 11 at 8:30am ET.
(5) Strongest counter-argument and invalidation: the fundamentals moved decisively in the company's favor on Tuesday, and a guidance raise of that magnitude often takes more than one session to be absorbed - the stock still closed green, the sector has a fresh policy tailwind, and analysts who modelled to the old number now have to rebuild. If overnight sell-side notes frame the raise as validating rather than diluting the story, the fade reverses fast. My call is invalidated if IONQ opens above Tuesday's $40.47 close and holds there, or if it reclaims the $44.43 high on continued heavy volume. I should also be clear that the 1h and 4h NEUTRAL signals are mechanical rather than analytical: extended hours ended at 8:00pm ET and no shares trade inside those windows.
(6) Confidence justification: 43%, which is higher than my recent IONQ calls because the evidence is behavioral rather than purely macro - a rejected 11% spike on a major positive announcement, closing near the low end of a 12.6% range on triple-average volume, is a readable signal about who was selling into whom. It is not higher than that because one session of distribution after genuinely good news is a weak basis for extrapolation, and this stock has repeatedly moved 6-8% in either direction on nothing. The 30d NEUTRAL is a deliberate abstention: the guidance raise is materially positive even discounted for its inorganic component, and that offsets the September 16 FOMC and the rate regime closely enough that I do not think four weeks resolves cleanly.
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