This is ForecastNest’s 1 day forecast for CEG, created 2026-09-09 02:23 UTC. The window closed 2026-09-09 20:00 UTC, when CEG closed at $293.98, down 1.7% from $298.96 when the forecast was made. It traded between $292.75 and $298.01 along the way (-2.1% to -0.3%).
Prediction window: Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.
Prediction time: 2026-09-09 02:23 UTC (9/8/2026, 10:23:49 PM EDT).
Valid until: 2026-09-09 20:00 UTC (9/9/2026, 4:00:00 PM EDT). Target session: 2026-09-09 (New York); Session close. Lead time to expiry: 17.6 elapsed hours. Timing: Overnight. Based on stored prediction time, not verified model execution time.
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5 of the 6 models called a direction, and 1 of those calls were right. Each model is also asked to find the price it was forecasting from when it answers, shown as the dashed line inside its box in the picture below. All models except Gemini 1.5 Pro found it accurately.
Below are the details.
| Model | Range | Move | Confidence | Price it found | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | $292.00–$310.00 | -2.6% to +3.4% | 73% | $299.71 | 31.3 | wrong |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | $292.00–$307.00 | -2.4% to +2.7% | 58% | $299.05 | 30.6 | wrong |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | $299.00–$307.00 | -1.2% to +1.4% | 60% | $302.64 | 0.0 | wrong |
| Grok 4.5 | $288.00–$308.00 | -3.4% to +3.4% | 37% | $298.00 | 51.5 | no call |
| Deepseek | $290.00–$310.00 | -3.0% to +3.7% | 60% | $299.05 | 30.9 | wrong |
| claude-opus-5 | $287.00–$303.50 | -3.5% to +2.1% | 41% | $297.40 | 79.9 | right |
How these models have done on CEG over 1 day
This forecast is settled and is included in the statistics below. The remaining records are forecasts created before 2026-09-09 02:23 UTC. Only settled directional calls count toward accuracy.
| Model | Asked | Still open | No call | Called up | Called down | Right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grok 4.5 | 2 | — | 1 | 1 · 1 right | — | 100% (1/1) |
| claude-opus-5 | 2 | — | 1 | — | 1 · 1 right | 100% (1/1) |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | 2 | — | 0 | 2 · 1 right | — | 50% (1/2) |
| Deepseek | 3 | — | 0 | 3 · 1 right | — | 33% (1/3) |
| GPT-5.6 Sol | 3 | — | 1 | 1 · 0 right | 1 · 0 right | 0% (0/2) |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | 1 | — | 0 | 1 · 0 right | — | 0% (0/1) |
Every published CEG forecast these models made over 1 day before this question was asked, on 2026-09-09 02:23 UTC, plus this settled forecast. Forecasts created after this question are excluded. Results reflect the settlements available when this article is generated. A day-ahead call and a week-ahead one are counted separately — they are different questions. Only settled forecasts are graded, so open + no call + up + down adds up to asked. “No call” is a range too centred on the price to be pointing anywhere. Accuracy counts only forecasts that have settled, and the count behind it is shown beside it — a single right call is not a 100% record.
What each model said
GPT-5.6 Sol
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) Price and data: CEG closed the September 8 regular session at $299.05 according to FinancialContent, after trading between $296.63 and $305.80. Investing.com subsequently reported a latest after-hours price of $299.71. Because I could not verify an equity transaction timestamped at or after the requested 02:23 UTC window start, I classify data access as partial and use $299.71 as the latest available reference. Sources: FinancialContent and Investing.com.
(2) Market regime: CEG remains in a strong short-term uptrend despite giving back most of its September 8 intraday advance. Investing.com's September 8 technical snapshot showed RSI(14) at 70.59, MACD at +5.16, ADX at 50.75 and 11 of 12 tracked moving-average signals positive. Utilities also showed unusually strong relative strength: MarketWatch reported the sector gained 1.3% on September 8 while the broader market declined, with all 31 components of the Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF advancing and nuclear-power stocks among the leaders. Sources: Investing.com and MarketWatch.
(3) Price range: I estimate $292.00-$310.00 over the next day from the $299.71 reference. September 8 produced a $296.63-$305.80 range, while CEG has advanced from $280.31 on September 1 to roughly $299 now. The $290-$294 region contains recent moving-average and breakout support, while $305.80 is the immediate high that would have to be exceeded for momentum to extend toward $310. The range has slightly more upside than downside because trend strength remains positive, but the elevated RSI and September 8 intraday reversal argue against a strongly bullish skew. Sources: ChartExchange, FinancialContent and Investing.com.
(4) Catalysts: Nuclear-power sentiment received additional support on September 8 when NextEra Energy secured a U.S. Department of Energy loan of up to $1.9 billion to restart Iowa's Duane Arnold nuclear plant under a long-term Google power agreement. Reuters noted that this follows the $1 billion federal loan supporting Constellation's restart of the Crane Clean Energy Center, whose output is linked to Microsoft's data-center demand. There is no major scheduled CEG earnings event inside the one-day window; the next major macro releases are U.S. PPI on September 10 and CPI on September 11. Sources: Reuters and Constellation Energy.
(5) Counter-argument: The strongest bullish argument is the combination of utility-sector leadership, renewed nuclear-policy support and structural electricity demand from AI data centers. Constellation also raised 2026 adjusted operating earnings guidance to $11.50-$12.50 per share in August and disclosed another 920 MW of long-term clean-power agreements. The counter-argument is technical exhaustion: CEG briefly reached $305.80 on September 8 but finished near $299, while RSI is above 70. Rising Treasury yields and growing scrutiny of AI infrastructure financing could also pressure the valuation. Sources: Constellation Energy, Investing.com and Reuters.
(6) Confidence: Confidence is 73%. I assign MILD BULLISH rather than BULLISH because CEG has shown strong relative strength, positive trend indicators and favorable nuclear-sector momentum, but the stock is short-term overbought and failed to retain most of September 8's intraday gain. The 7d and 30d signals remain mildly bullish because the underlying nuclear and data-center power-demand thesis remains intact, while elevated yields, energy-market volatility and the approaching inflation releases prevent a higher-confidence directional call.
Muse Spark 1.1
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Finnhub shows CEG current price $299.05, open $303.998, high $305.8, low $296.63, previous close $298.96. MacroTrends confirms latest close Sep 08, 2026 is $299.05, all-time high $401.70 Oct 15, 2025. WallStreetZen shows $298.96 as of Sep 4, market cap $105.92B. Upstox shows $299.24 +0.11% last updated Sep 9 01:29 IST. 5-day +8.06%, 1-month +10.8% per Finnhub, YTD -15.35%.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: CEG is bouncing from summer lows $265-280 range noted in Barchart earnings preview Aug 5. Utilities were only green sector Sep 4 per earlier market wrap, supporting defensive nuclear leader. Nuclear/AI power demand narrative remains intact despite YTD underperformance.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored at $299.05, range $292-$307 skews slightly up ($7.95 upside vs $7.05 downside) for mild bullish 1-day. Upper bound $307 just above intraday high $305.8, lower bound $292 near prior support $296.63 low and 2% pullback. Daily ATR ~2.5% supports band. 5-day strength suggests momentum continuation.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: No earnings in 1-day window; board chairman transition announced Aug 5 per Barchart. Broader catalysts: oil/energy strength, AI data center power deals, and yield moves. Sep 9 session follows holiday and jobs-driven yield spike, but utilities showing relative strength.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: Higher yields from hot jobs report pressure utility valuations due to duration, and CEG already up 8% 5-day may face profit-taking. Invalidation is close below $292 with heavy volume and sector rotation out of defensives.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Confidence 58% moderate due to clear near-term momentum (+8% 5-day, +10.8% 1-month) and defensive bid, but tempered by YTD -15% downtrend from ATH $401.70 and rate sensitivity. Short-term signals align bullish but 7d/30d neutral.
Gemini 1.5 Pro
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) Sources and data: According to September 8, 2026 data from AAII, Constellation Energy (CEG) is trading near $302.64, up over 1% from its previous close. Recent commentary from Goldman Sachs on September 4 highlighted CEG as a prime beneficiary of the AI power demand trade.
(2) Market regime: The market is currently rewarding utilities and independent power producers that can provide reliable, clean baseload power to data centers. With AI infrastructure buildouts accelerating, companies like Constellation Energy are seeing renewed momentum, transitioning from traditional defensive plays to growth-oriented infrastructure assets.
(3) Price range justification: The projected range of $299.00-$307.00 anchors to the current $302.64 level. The stock has demonstrated solid relative strength recently, rebounding from August lows in the $260s. The range allows for standard daily volatility while maintaining a slight upward bias, supported by institutional accumulation.
(4) Scheduled catalysts: There are no major company-specific catalysts scheduled for the next 24 hours. Price action is expected to be driven by continued digestion of recent bullish analyst notes and broader macroeconomic flows into the utilities sector.
(5) Counter-argument and invalidation: The strongest counter-argument is that utilities remain sensitive to interest rate expectations. If upcoming macro data prompts a sudden spike in Treasury yields, yield-sensitive sectors could face abrupt selling pressure. A drop below the $298 level would invalidate the short-term bullish continuation thesis.
(6) Confidence assessment: I assign a 60% confidence level. While the secular tailwinds from AI energy demand are strong and the stock is showing positive momentum, forecasting a single trading day without a direct catalyst is inherently uncertain and subject to broader market noise.
Grok 4.5
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Live data from MarketWatch, Stocknear, FinanceCharts, Twelve Data and Investing.com show CEG closing at $299.05 on 8 September 2026 (essentially flat on the day) after trading a wide $296.63-$305.80 range. After-hours quotes settled near $297.40. The stock has risen sharply over the prior week from the mid-$270s.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: CEG has been in a short-term uptrend driven by nuclear and clean-energy positioning, but the broad equity market remains sensitive to elevated rate-hike odds after strong labor data. The name is trading with elevated single-stock volatility relative to the S&P 500, reflecting both sector rotation and company-specific flows.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored near $298, the one-day range of $288-$308 reflects recent daily swings of 3-5 percent plus a buffer for overnight gaps. Near-term support sits around the $290-$295 zone that marked the prior session low; resistance is clustered near the $305-$308 area that capped the 8 September high.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: No company-specific earnings or major corporate events fall inside the exact 24-hour window starting 02:23 UTC on 9 September. Macro data (PPI, CPI) and the mid-month FOMC sit outside the horizon, so the session is more likely to be driven by residual sector flows and any overnight equity or rates moves.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: A sharp risk-on open or renewed nuclear/clean-energy bid could push CEG back toward $305-$308 and invalidate the mild short-term caution. Conversely, a broader equity sell-off or rise in yields would favor the lower end of the range. The one-day call remains neutral because neither catalyst is confirmed inside the window.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Confidence is modest at 37 percent because a single equity-trading day for a high-beta name is dominated by noise and liquidity. Live price data are consistent across sources, yet the absence of a decisive catalyst and mixed multi-timeframe signals keep conviction limited.
Deepseek
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) Price discovery and sources: As of the September 9, 2026 window start, CEG is trading at approximately $299.05, based on the September 8 close reported by Yahoo Finance, Stock Analysis, and other sources. The stock experienced significant intraday volatility on September 8, ranging from a low of $296.63 to a high of $305.80, before settling near the open. In after-hours trading, the stock has shown marginal strength, edging up to around $299.30. The 52-week range is $228.63 to $412.70.
(2) Current market regime: CEG is in a strong fundamental uptrend driven by clean energy demand, particularly from data centers and AI. The company recently raised its full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $11.50-$12.50, up from $11.00-$12.00, citing commercial outperformance and the accretive Calpine acquisition. Analyst consensus is a "Buy" with an average projected level of $348.30, implying ~16% upside. However, the stock is coming off a volatile week, having rallied from ~$280 on September 2 to $299, a gain of nearly 7% in five sessions. This rapid move may invite short-term profit-taking.
(3) Price range justification: The 1-day forecast range of $290-$310 represents a ±3.3% band around the current price, reflecting the stock's elevated volatility (beta of 1.12-1.6). The lower bound of $290 is defined by the recent support level from September 3-4, where the stock found buyers near $284-$285 before reversing higher. A break below $290 would signal a loss of near-term momentum. The upper bound of $310 is just above the September 8 intraday high of $305.80 and aligns with the next psychological resistance level. The range is slightly asymmetric to the upside, reflecting the bullish fundamental backdrop and analyst targets, but the tight 24-hour window and recent run-up temper the magnitude.
(4) Catalysts inside the window: The immediate 24-hour window is light on company-specific events. The next major catalyst is the Q3 2026 earnings report, estimated for November 9, 2026. However, broader market sentiment-particularly regarding interest rates and the Federal Reserve's September meeting-will influence CEG, as utilities are sensitive to yield movements. Additionally, any news on nuclear contracting, data center power agreements, or Calpine integration milestones could move the stock.
(5) Strongest counter-argument and invalidation: The most compelling bearish case is that the stock is overextended in the short term. CEG has rallied from ~$269 on September 1 to $299, a gain of over 11% in just five trading days. This move may have been driven by short-covering or momentum chasing, leaving it vulnerable to a pullback if broader markets weaken. Rising Treasury yields could also pressure utility valuations. My mildly bullish view would be invalidated if CEG breaks below $296.63 (the September 8 low) on high volume, suggesting the buying pressure has exhausted. Conversely, a sustained move above $306 would confirm breakout strength toward the $310-$315 zone.
(6) Confidence assessment: Confidence is 60%, reflecting a constructive fundamental outlook tempered by short-term technical uncertainty. The raised guidance, strong analyst consensus, and structural tailwinds from AI-driven power demand support a bullish bias. However, the stock's recent rapid ascent, elevated volatility, and lack of immediate catalysts within the 24-hour window introduce meaningful downside risk. The range accounts for this two-sided risk while leaning slightly bullish on balance.
claude-opus-5
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) What I found, and where: CEG closed Tuesday September 8 at $299.05, up just 0.03%, but the shape of the session matters more than the change - it printed a high of $305.80 and a low of $296.63 on 3.83M shares, meaning it made a new local high and surrendered the entire move to close near the bottom of a 3.1% range. Extended hours took it lower still, to $297.40 at 7:59pm EDT, which is the last print before this 02:23 UTC baseline and my anchor (stockanalysis.com). Market cap is $105.96B and the 52-week range is $228.63-$412.70, leaving the stock roughly 28% below its high. The run into that rejection was steep: $274.77 on August 31 to $299.05 Tuesday, up 8.8% in six sessions, including a 4.88% day on September 4.
(2) Current market regime: the macro backdrop shifted hard over the long weekend. Brent traded at $99.46 as of September 9, a near seven-week high and up 13.38% in a month, after strikes near Iran's Kharg Island export hub and against the 400,000 barrel-per-day Jazan refinery, with Iran declaring a restricted maritime zone in the Strait of Hormuz (Trading Economics). Canada's retaliatory tariffs on US goods took effect Tuesday after negotiations collapsed, and Friday's 162,000 payrolls print had already pushed September hike expectations and Treasury yields higher (Yahoo Finance). SPY closed down 0.55% Tuesday near its own session low. For CEG the crosscurrents are real: higher gas and power prices are broadly supportive of merchant generation margins and its nuclear fleet carries no fuel-cost exposure, but rising rates are a genuine headwind for a capital-intensive generator, and the AI-power trade that drove the recent run is a momentum trade that just failed at a new high.
(3) Price range justification: the window covers one full cash session, Wednesday September 9, plus extended hours. CEG's realized daily ranges have been wide - 3.1% Tuesday, 5.5% on September 4, 4.6% on September 2 - so I am sizing off roughly 3.5-4.5%. From the $297.40 anchor that gives $287.00 to $303.50: about 3.5% of room below versus 2.05% above. The downward skew reflects the failed breakout specifically. A stock that trades to $305.80, closes at $299.05 and then drifts to $297.40 after hours has told you where the sellers are, and the upper bound sits deliberately below Tuesday's high because reclaiming it in the next session would itself invalidate the read.
(4) Scheduled catalysts inside the window: none that I could identify. Wednesday September 9 carries no noteworthy US economic releases and no bellwether earnings (FinancialJuice week-ahead, Kiplinger calendar), and I found no CEG-specific scheduled event - the company reported Q2 on August 6 and the data-center and Calpine headlines my searches surfaced are dated earlier in the year, not this week. I should also state plainly that I could not identify a news driver for Tuesday's intraday spike to $305.80, which means I am reading that reversal as positioning rather than as a reaction to something I can name. The week's heavyweight events fall outside this window: August PPI Thursday September 10 at 8:30am ET and August CPI Friday September 11 at 8:30am ET.
(5) Strongest counter-argument and invalidation: the bull case is that the energy shock is actually good for a merchant power generator - higher gas prices lift power prices, and a nuclear-heavy fleet capture that spread without paying for fuel - so CEG could decouple upward from a tape that is selling on oil, exactly as it decoupled on September 4 when it rose 4.88% on a day yields hit 52-week highs. My MILD BEARISH 1d is invalidated if CEG reclaims $305.80, or if it opens firm and holds above Tuesday's $296.63 low while the broad index is lower, which would show the AI-power bid absorbing the reversal. The 7d NEUTRAL is a deliberate abstention rather than a lean, because I do not think PPI and CPI resolve predictably for this name.
(6) Confidence justification: 41%. The one-day call rests on a specific and readable piece of evidence - a rejected new high with a close at the low end of the range and continued after-hours weakness - which is stronger than a pure macro inference, but it is a single session in a stock that has moved 3-5% daily and can gap on a single power-purchase headline. The 1h and 4h NEUTRAL signals are mechanical rather than analytical: extended hours ended at 8:00pm ET and nothing trades in those windows. The 30d MILD BULLISH rests on things I can point to - full-year 2026 adjusted operating earnings guidance of $11.50-$12.50 per share, 920 megawatts of newly contracted 15-to-20-year power purchase agreements for 2029-2032 delivery, the Crane Clean Energy Center restart slated for 2027 (Yahoo Finance, August 6) - against the offsetting risk of the September 16 FOMC.
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