This is ForecastNest’s 1 day forecast for IONQ, created 2026-09-22 15:00 UTC. The window closed 2026-09-23 15:00 UTC, when IONQ closed at $43.32, up 8.0% from $40.10 when the forecast was made. It traded between $39.87 and $46.05 along the way (-0.6% to +14.8%).
Prediction window: Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.
Prediction time: 2026-09-22 15:00 UTC (9/22/2026, 11:00:13 AM EDT).
Valid until: 2026-09-23 15:00 UTC (9/23/2026, 11:00:13 AM EDT). Target session: 2026-09-23 (New York); During session. Lead time to expiry: 24 elapsed hours. Timing: Regular session. Based on stored prediction time, not verified model execution time.
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4 of the 6 models called a direction, and 3 of those calls were right. Each model is also asked to find the price it was forecasting from when it answers, shown as the dashed line inside its box in the picture below. All models except GPT-5.6 Sol, Claude Opus 5, and Gemini 2.5 Pro found it accurately.
Below are the details.
| Model | Range | Move | Confidence | Price it found | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | $38.20–$43.80 | -5.7% to +8.1% | 56% | $40.51 | 79.1 | right |
| Claude Opus 5 | $38.40–$43.50 | -5.9% to +6.6% | 25% | $40.80 | 44.1 | wrong |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | $38.50–$42.00 | -4.2% to +4.6% | 55% | $40.17 | 75.5 | right |
| Gemini 2.5 Pro | $11.80–$13.10 | -5.2% to +5.2% | 50% | $12.45 | 0.6 | no call |
| Grok 4.5 | $38.50–$42.00 | -4.2% to +4.5% | 40% | $40.20 | 73.8 | right |
| Claude Sonnet 4.5 | $39.00–$42.00 | -3.7% to +3.7% | 55% | $40.50 | 47.7 | no call |
How these models have done on IONQ over 1 day
This forecast is settled and is included in the statistics below. The remaining records are forecasts created before 2026-09-22 15:00 UTC. Only settled directional calls count toward accuracy.
| Model | Asked | Still open | No call | Called up | Called down | Right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Sonnet 4.5 | 2 | — | 1 | 1 · 1 right | — | 100% (1/1) |
| GPT-5.6 Sol | 13 | — | 2 | 9 · 7 right | 2 · 1 right | 73% (8/11) |
| Grok 4.5 | 13 | — | 1 | 10 · 7 right | 2 · 1 right | 67% (8/12) |
| DeepSeek V3 | 14 | — | 0 | 11 · 6 right | 3 · 1 right | 50% (7/14) |
| Claude Opus 5 | 16 | — | 1 | 2 · 1 right | 13 · 6 right | 47% (7/15) |
| Gemini 2.5 Pro | 15 | — | 4 | 8 · 4 right | 3 · 1 right | 45% (5/11) |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | 10 | — | 2 | 3 · 2 right | 5 · 1 right | 38% (3/8) |
| GPT-6 | 3 | — | 3 | — | — | — |
| Other model | 1 | — | 1 | — | — | — |
Every published IONQ forecast over 1 day before this question was asked, on 2026-09-22 15:00 UTC, plus this settled forecast. Forecasts created after this question are excluded. Results reflect the settlements available when this article is generated. A day-ahead call and a week-ahead one are counted separately — they are different questions. Only settled forecasts are graded, so open + no call + up + down adds up to asked. “No call” is a range too centred on the price to be pointing anywhere. Accuracy counts only forecasts that have settled, and the count behind it is shown beside it — a single right call is not a 100% record.
What each model said
GPT-5.6 Sol
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) What I found: Investing.com lists IONQ at $40.51 for September 22, with a prior regular-session range of $39.83-$40.93 and a September 21 close of $40.51. The page is current-dated but does not expose a verifiable September 22 trade timestamp, so I use $40.51 as the freshest quote I could confirm and classify data_access as partial rather than live. Sources: https://ca.investing.com/equities/dmy-technology-group-iii and https://www.investing.com/equities/dmy-technology-group-iii-historical-data
(2) Market regime: The near-term backdrop is mildly supportive for speculative growth stocks. The Nasdaq reached another intraday record on September 22 while oil prices and Treasury yields declined, which reduces some valuation pressure on long-duration technology companies. Quantum stocks remain highly volatile, however, and industry coverage continues to emphasize high cash burn and uncertain commercialization timelines. Sources: https://www.reuters.com/business/wall-st-futures-pause-after-ai-rally-focus-mideast-tensions-2026-09-22/ and https://www.investors.com/news/technology/quantum-computing-stocks-world-quantum-conference-2026/
(3) Price range: I use $38.20-$43.80 for the next 24 hours. IONQ traded between $37.77 and $40.94 on September 18 and between $39.83 and $40.93 on September 21, while earlier September sessions produced moves of roughly 5%-10%. The lower bound allows a reversal through recent support if growth-stock sentiment weakens, while the upper bound allows a renewed test of the early-September $43-$44 area if company-specific momentum strengthens. Source: https://ca.investing.com/equities/dmy-technology-group-iii-historical-data
(4) Catalysts inside the window: IonQ announced a multi-year strategic partnership with South Korea's SDT under which IonQ will supply a Superion 256 quantum computer and a silicon-vacancy quantum-memory module, with plans for system deployment, assembly and regional commercialization in South Korea. IonQ also recently reported up to 14.6% acceleration in engineering simulation workloads with Synopsys and raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $450 million-$460 million following the SkyWater acquisition. These are substantive commercialization and technology catalysts, although much of the information is already public and may be partly reflected in the stock. Sources: https://investors.ionq.com/news/news-details/2026/IonQ-and-SDT-Announce-the-First-Strategic-Partnership-to-Bring-Both-Advanced-Quantum-Computing-and-Quantum-Networking-to-the-Asia-Pacific-Region/default.aspx, https://www.ionq.com/news/ionq-demonstrates-computer-aided-engineering-workload-acceleration-by-up-to-14-6-with-quantum-technology and https://www.ionq.com/news/ionq-announces-increased-full-year-2026-financial-outlook-following-skywater-acquisition
(5) Strongest counter-argument: The bearish case is valuation and dilution risk. IonQ's market capitalization is roughly $16.1 billion despite still being in an early commercialization phase, and recent commentary highlights substantial historical share-count expansion and persistent cash burn. If the stock cannot sustain the $40 area despite favorable company news and a supportive technology tape, that would argue the positive catalysts are already priced in. A sustained move below roughly $39 would weaken the mild bullish one-day view, while strength above roughly $41-$42 would improve the continuation case. Sources: https://ca.investing.com/equities/dmy-technology-group-iii and https://www.tikr.com/blog/ionq-just-diluted-shareholders-by-71-heres-why-the-math-still-works-out
(6) Confidence: 56% reflects a modest positive edge. The SDT partnership, recent technical research results, higher 2026 revenue guidance and a supportive Nasdaq backdrop favor MILD BULLISH over one day. Confidence remains limited because quantum stocks are unusually volatile, valuation remains aggressive, sector commercialization risk is substantial, and I could not verify a timestamped September 22 IONQ trade at or after the requested 15:00 UTC baseline.
Claude Opus 5
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) What I found: Morningstar shows IONQ closed Monday, September 21, 2026 at $40.51 (delayed close as of 8:00 p.m.). A GuruFocus article on Yahoo Finance, published 8:25 a.m. EDT Tuesday, showed IONQ +0.31% and reported a multi-year agreement with South Korea's SDT to bring IonQ's Superion 256 system and silicon-vacancy quantum memory technology to the country, including a planned hybrid quantum-classical data center and a manufacturing and systems-integration site in Gumi. I have no intraday quote at the 15:00 UTC window start, so $40.80 is Monday's close plus a small news-driven gain, an estimate rather than a live price. I have no reliable clock, so answered_at_utc is 'unknown'.
(2) Market regime: IONQ is recovering from last week's whipsaw (+9.43% on September 17, -6.16% on September 18 per TipRanks via CNN) and gained about 3.5% Monday. Company momentum is positive: raised 2026 revenue guidance to $450M-$460M at its September Investor Day, a reported $2.1B cash position (Perplexity Finance summary), Superion 256 launched with 2027 deliveries, and now the SDT hardware deal. Offsetting this, TheStreet Pro describes a semiconductor sell-off Tuesday on AI-slowdown calls, though Perplexity's summary notes IonQ has previously held up against similar AI-slowdown tech weakness.
(3) Price range: With typical daily volatility of about 5%-6% for quantum names, I set $38.40-$43.50 around $40.80, tilted slightly upward to reflect fresh company-specific news and recent resilience. The lower bound sits below Monday's close and last week's $39 area; the upper bound allows an extension toward the $43 zone.
(4) Catalysts in the window: Follow-through on the SDT agreement, sector sentiment across quantum peers (RGTI, QBTS), FOMC speakers on Tuesday, and broader AI/tech risk appetite ahead of Meta Connect on September 23 and the Trump-Xi summit on September 24 (StockMarketWatch digest). The next earnings report is November 11, 2026 (Investing.com), outside the window.
(5) Counter-argument: Partnership headlines often produce only brief pops in IONQ, and a deepening AI-infrastructure sell-off could drag high-beta tech lower regardless of company news; valuation remains rich on forward sales, and the stock is down more than 50% from its all-time high, with repeated failed rallies. A drop back below about $39.50 would undercut the mild bullish lean.
(6) Confidence: 25% reflects an estimated price anchor, very high single-stock volatility, and a tug-of-war between positive company news and negative sector sentiment.
Muse Spark 1.1
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Finnhub reports IONQ Current $40.17 Open $40.51 High $40.8 Low $39.92 Previous Close $40.51 6M +21.32% YTD -10.47% 1Y -46.54% beta 3.35. Motley Fool Sep 22 reports Today's Change -0.85% -$0.34 Current $40.17 and IonQ boosted 2026 revenue expectations to $450-460B vs Q2 guidance $280-290M. FinancialContent reports current price $40.53 today's range $40.35-$44.21, Concord Monitor $40.51 open $40.51 close $40.51 high $40.51 low $40.51, SpaceDew $40.51 +3.5% -30% $15.9B 0/4 ARKX ROKT rev Sep 2026, Stockstotrade $40.39 target $0. SOXL $145.83 open $137.67 high $148.705 low $137.46 prev $141.93 per Finnhub Sep 22, NVDA $228.14 +0.33% per Finnhub Sep 22, GOOG $356.30 +1.54% per Finnhub Sep 22.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: Quantum rebound fading. From $40.51 open to $40.17 -0.85% intraday per Motley Fool Sep 22, high $40.8 low $39.92 range $0.88 volatility 2.2% vs beta 3.35. SOXL +44.2% 5D per Finnhub Sep 22 and NVDA +0.33% supports quantum but IONQ -0.85% underperforming SOXL +6.6% and NVDA. Revenue guidance boost $450-460M vs $280-290M per Motley Fool is substantive catalyst but priced. YTD -10.47% vs SOXL +246% per Finnhub shows lag.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to $40.17 Finnhub current Sep 22 same window 15:00 UTC. Using day $39.92-$40.8 Finnhub and $40.35-$44.21 FinancialContent and $40.51 Concord Monitor and $40.51 SpaceDew +3.5% and $40.39 Stockstotrade. Daily vol ~3.5% ~$1.4 due beta 3.35. Lower $38.50 -4.1% near $39.92 low if guidance priced and profit taking below $40.51 open, upper $42 -4.5% toward $44.21 high range and $42.80 last week high per earlier Webull captures guidance momentum above $40.8 high. Slight downside skew today but 1d mildly bullish due to guidance boost $450-460M vs $280-290M.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: Window Sep 22 15:00 UTC 24h to Sep 23 15:00 covers Sep 22 close and Sep 23 open. Catalyst guidance boost to $450-460M from $280-290M per Motley Fool Sep 22 substantive, Fed speeches Sep 21-27 per HappyCoinNews, no earnings in window but Q3 pre-release.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: Bear case: -0.85% intraday vs SOXL +44% 5D, YTD -10.47% 1Y -46.54% per Finnhub shows underperformance, could retrace to $38.50 below $39.92 low if guidance questioned $450B vs $450M typo. Bull case: guidance $450-460M vs $280-290M could squeeze to $42 above $40.8 high. Invalidation: close below $38 or above $43 would negate mild bullish.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Confidence 55% reflects live $40.17 open $40.51 high $40.8 low $39.92 prev $40.51 Sep 22 same day as window start 15:00 UTC, plus Motley Fool $40.17 -0.85% current Sep 22 and FinancialContent $40.53 range $40.35-$44.21 and $40.51 Concord Monitor and SpaceDew $40.51 +3.5%. Multiple same-day live sources after baseline. Labeling live because quotes dated Sep 22 at or after window start.
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Without live browsing tools accessible in this turn, estimated pricing is synthesized from general quarterly context for IonQ Inc. (IONQ) around mid-2026 levels, reflecting typical high-beta quantum computing volatility and recent capital market sentiment.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: Quantum computing equities remain highly speculative, trading largely on macro risk appetite and long-term milestone validation rather than near-term profitability, resulting in choppy consolidation phases.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: A band of approximately five percent in either direction captures standard daily intraday swings for high-beta tech names without assuming an outsized breakout or breakdown in a compressed 24-hour window.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: No immediate high-impact earnings releases or major technical breakthroughs are assumed within this precise one-day timeframe, leaving the asset driven primarily by broader tech sector tape action.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: An unexpected macro shock, sudden sector-wide institutional re-allocation into quantum stocks, or breaking corporate announcements regarding hardware milestones could easily expand volatility beyond the modeled range.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: A fifty percent confidence level explicitly mirrors a neutral directional outlook where short-term price action is dominated by random market noise rather than discernible directional momentum.
Grok 4.5
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) What you found: Live quotes from StockAnalysis, Benzinga, CoinGlass and Finviz show IONQ trading near $40.15-$40.25 on 22 September 2026 after a +3.5 percent gain on 21 September that closed at $40.51. Intraday range has been roughly $39.90-$40.80 on lighter-than-average volume.
(2) Market regime: Mild consolidation following the prior session’s advance. The stock remains in a multi-week range between the mid-$35s and low-$40s, with recent partnership news (SDT collaboration announced 21-22 September) providing limited immediate lift.
(3) Price range: The $38.50-$42.00 band reflects typical one-day volatility for IONQ of about 3-5 percent around the current level, allowing for a modest pullback toward recent support or a limited extension of the prior gain.
(4) Catalysts: No major scheduled earnings or macroeconomic events inside the next 24 hours; residual attention may linger around the newly announced multi-year SDT partnership in South Korea, though market reaction so far has been muted.
(5) Counter-argument: A break below $39.50 on rising volume would signal fading momentum and open the door to a deeper retracement toward the mid-$38s, invalidating any residual constructive bias from the prior session.
(6) Confidence: 40 percent reflects the short one-day horizon, mixed short-term signals after a modest prior gain, and the absence of a dominant near-term catalyst capable of driving a clear directional move.
Claude Sonnet 4.5
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) What I found: IONQ closed at $40.51 on Sept 21, up 3.53% on the day, with a 52-week range of $25.89-$84.64 and a beta of 2.98 (Robinhood, Yahoo Finance, eToro). Pre-market trading on Sept 22 showed the stock around $40.14-$40.17, down roughly 0.9% from the prior close (CNYES, Baidu Finance, Sohu). The company announced a multi-year strategic partnership with South Korea-based SDT, Inc. on Sept 22, supplying a Superion 256 quantum computer and silicon-vacancy quantum memory technology for deployment in South Korea (Marketscreener, TipRanks, The Quantum Insider).
(2) Market regime: Quantum computing stocks are in a news-driven, high-volatility recovery phase. IONQ has rallied 8.92% over the past week (eToro), but remains about 52% below its 52-week high of $84.64. The sector is benefiting from policy tailwinds: the U.S. Department of Energy is hosting a 'From Lab to Market' session at Quantum World Congress (Sept 23-25), and the Trump administration launched a $215M quantum competition (Benzinga). Analyst sentiment is broadly constructive, with a Strong Buy consensus and an average projected level near $67-$69 (StockAnalysis, MarketBeat).
(3) Price range justification: With IONQ at roughly $40.50 and a beta of 2.98, daily moves of 5-8% are common. The stock traded in a range of $39.84-$40.93 on Sept 21. I expect a session range of $39.00-$42.00, reflecting a mild upward skew. Key levels: $40.00 is a psychological support and roughly aligns with the pre-market price; $42.00 is a near-term resistance that capped the stock in mid-September. A break below $39.00 would signal sector-wide risk aversion, while a push above $42.00 would require a positive surprise from Quantum World Congress.
(4) Catalysts: The Quantum World Congress in College Park, Maryland (Sept 23-25) is the main scheduled catalyst, with IonQ as a platinum sponsor and CEO Niccolo de Masi featured (Quantum World Congress). B. Riley reiterated a Buy rating and $100 projected level ahead of the event, citing a potential shift in U.S. quantum policy from research funding toward commercialization (TipRanks). Wedbush reiterated an Outperform rating with a $75 projected level on Sept 22 (TradingView). No earnings are scheduled within the window.
(5) Counter-argument: The strongest bear case is that the SDT partnership and Quantum World Congress are already priced in after the recent 8.9% weekly rally, and that the stock's 51x price-to-sales ratio leaves little room for disappointment (Edgen). If the conference produces no concrete government funding or commercial contracts, IONQ could retrace toward $38.00 or lower. A broader sell-off in speculative technology stocks would also hit IONQ disproportionately given its high beta.
(6) Confidence: 55% - moderate. The catalyst pipeline is real but event outcomes are uncertain, and the stock's extreme volatility (beta 2.98) makes single-day forecasting unreliable. The sector momentum and analyst support provide a mild bullish tilt, but the risk of a 'sell the news' reaction after the recent rally keeps confidence from being higher.
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