This is ForecastNest’s 1 day forecast for NVDA, created 2026-09-22 17:50 UTC. The window closed 2026-09-23 17:50 UTC, when NVDA closed at $225.20, down 1.6% from $228.87 when the forecast was made. It traded between $224.02 and $229.92 along the way (-2.1% to +0.5%).
Prediction window: Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.
Prediction time: 2026-09-22 17:50 UTC (9/22/2026, 1:50:27 PM EDT).
Valid until: 2026-09-23 17:50 UTC (9/23/2026, 1:50:27 PM EDT). Target session: 2026-09-23 (New York); During session. Lead time to expiry: 24 elapsed hours. Timing: Regular session. Based on stored prediction time, not verified model execution time.
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4 of the 6 models called a direction, and 1 of those calls were right. Each model is also asked to find the price it was forecasting from when it answers, shown as the dashed line inside its box in the picture below. All models except Claude Opus 5 found it accurately.
Below are the details.
| Model | Range | Move | Confidence | Price it found | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | $223.50–$236.50 | -2.7% to +3.0% | 60% | $229.68 | 30.5 | wrong |
| Claude Opus 5 | $211.00–$229.00 | -4.1% to +4.1% | 22% | $220.00 | 13.1 | no call |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | $224.00–$233.00 | -2.2% to +1.7% | 60% | $229.02 | 80.9 | right |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | $223.50–$236.00 | -2.5% to +3.0% | 70% | $229.15 | 30.9 | wrong |
| Grok 4.5 | $224.00–$233.00 | -2.1% to +1.9% | 44% | $228.70 | 52.6 | no call |
| Claude Sonnet 4.5 | $224.00–$234.00 | -2.0% to +2.4% | 55% | $228.50 | 31.0 | wrong |
How these models have done on NVDA over 1 day
This forecast is settled and is included in the statistics below. The remaining records are forecasts created before 2026-09-22 17:50 UTC. Only settled directional calls count toward accuracy.
| Model | Asked | Still open | No call | Called up | Called down | Right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Opus 5 | 5 | — | 1 | 3 · 2 right | 1 · 1 right | 75% (3/4) |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | 4 | — | 0 | 1 · 1 right | 3 · 2 right | 75% (3/4) |
| GPT-5.6 Sol | 4 | — | 0 | 4 · 2 right | — | 50% (2/4) |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | 4 | — | 0 | 3 · 1 right | 1 · 0 right | 25% (1/4) |
| DeepSeek V3 | 3 | — | 1 | 2 · 0 right | — | 0% (0/2) |
| Grok 4.5 | 3 | — | 2 | — | 1 · 0 right | 0% (0/1) |
| Claude Sonnet 4.5 | 1 | — | 0 | 1 · 0 right | — | 0% (0/1) |
Every published NVDA forecast over 1 day before this question was asked, on 2026-09-22 17:50 UTC, plus this settled forecast. Forecasts created after this question are excluded. Results reflect the settlements available when this article is generated. A day-ahead call and a week-ahead one are counted separately — they are different questions. Only settled forecasts are graded, so open + no call + up + down adds up to asked. “No call” is a range too centred on the price to be pointing anywhere. Accuracy counts only forecasts that have settled, and the count behind it is shown beside it — a single right call is not a 100% record.
What each model said
GPT-5.6 Sol
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) What I found: Investing.com showed NVIDIA at $229.68 with real-time data timestamped 13:21:53 EDT on September 22, up 1.01% from the prior close of $227.38. The session range was $226.50-$229.98, placing NVDA near the day's high. Because the retrieved quote is dated after the 17:50 UTC baseline, data_access is live. Source: https://www.investing.com/equities/nvidia-corp
(2) Market regime: NVIDIA remains in a constructive AI-led semiconductor regime. Reuters reported continued global enthusiasm for AI infrastructure, with semiconductor shares supported by strong Korean chip exports and renewed risk appetite as crude oil declined. NVIDIA is participating positively but less explosively than some recent semiconductor leaders, which reduces immediate mean-reversion risk. Sources: https://www.reuters.com/commentary/reuters-open-interest/global-markets-view-usa-2026-09-22/ and https://www.reuters.com/business/amd-becomes-latest-chipmaker-reach-1-trillion-valuation-ai-demand-2026-09-21/
(3) Price range: I use $223.50-$236.50 for the next 24 hours. The lower bound allows a retracement below today's $226.50 low toward the recent consolidation area if semiconductor momentum fades. The upper bound reaches NVIDIA's current 52-week high area around $236.54 without assuming a decisive breakout. Today's verified range is about $3.50 so far, while recent sessions have produced materially larger swings, supporting a wider one-day envelope. Source: https://www.investing.com/equities/nvidia-corp
(4) Catalysts inside the window: The strongest positive catalyst remains accelerating AI compute demand. Reuters reported that semiconductor exports from South Korea surged sharply in early September and that major technology companies continue expanding AI infrastructure. NVIDIA is also pursuing additional international data-center capacity, including announced expansion plans in Australia. The main macro catalysts are Treasury yields, oil prices and U.S.-China discussions around AI technology and semiconductor access. Sources: https://www.reuters.com/commentary/reuters-open-interest/global-markets-view-usa-2026-09-22/ and https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/nvidia-teams-up-with-australian-partners-build-ai-factory-capacity-2026-09-10/
(5) Strongest counter-argument: The bearish case is that NVIDIA is approaching its 52-week high after a fast sector recovery, while competition is intensifying. Reuters reported Alibaba unveiling a substantially more powerful in-house AI chip and Huawei continuing to expand its domestic AI-compute offerings, highlighting the strategic push to reduce reliance on NVIDIA in China. A sustained move below roughly $226 would weaken the mild bullish one-day view, while continued trading above roughly $230-$232 would strengthen the case for a test of the recent high. Sources: https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/alibaba-plans-ai-model-with-5-trillion-10-trillion-parameters-unveils-new-chip-2026-09-22/ and https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/chinas-huawei-launch-two-new-ai-chips-2027-2026-09-17/
(6) Confidence: 60% reflects a moderate positive edge. NVDA is trading near today's high, the semiconductor and AI backdrop remains constructive, and lower oil prices are supportive for growth valuations. Confidence is capped because the stock is close to its 52-week high, semiconductor leadership has already experienced a substantial multi-session rebound, and competition plus U.S.-China policy risk could quickly alter short-term sentiment.
Claude Opus 5
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) What I found: MacroTrends gives NVDA's September 18, 2026 close as $222.27, and Yahoo Finance references a roughly 2.3% move on September 21 (Vittarthi's recap puts Monday at +2.19%), implying a Monday close near $227. For Tuesday, September 22, Bloomberg published two pieces (10:45 and 14:08 UTC) saying Nvidia's forward multiple has fallen below 17 times next-twelve-month earnings, near its cheapest in more than a decade and half what it commanded in 2025, while TheStreet Pro describes a broad semiconductor sell-off and Perplexity's feed notes the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index down roughly 5% on AI-slowdown warnings. I could not retrieve an intraday NVDA quote at the 17:50 UTC window start, so $220 is an estimate (Monday's approximate close less a mid-single-digit-percent decline consistent with the sector move) rather than a live price. I have no reliable clock, so answered_at_utc is 'unknown'.
(2) Market regime: The AI trade is de-rating rather than breaking. Bloomberg's framing is that investors doubt Nvidia can sustain blockbuster growth even as fundamentals hold, and a Schwab Network post notes Nvidia has shed roughly $1 trillion in market value in under two months. Tuesday's trigger is calls from AI industry leaders for a slowdown in frontier model development plus Citigroup turning neutral on chipmaker equity risk; TipRanks also flags Huawei accelerating an AI chip launch. Offsetting that, Jensen Huang has said chip sales could double next year (Barron's), and he is reportedly attending the Trump-Xi state dinner.
(3) Price range: NVDA's recent daily swings run 2%-4% ($5-$9). I set $211-$229 around $220, tilted slightly lower to reflect the ongoing de-rating and the fresh negative catalyst. The lower bound allows continuation of the sell-off toward the low $210s; the upper bound allows a full recovery of Monday's gain area near $227-$229.
(4) Catalysts in the window: Flash PMIs and Meta Connect on September 23 (StockMarketWatch digest), where AI-capex commentary directly affects chip demand expectations; the Trump-Xi summit on September 24, carrying China export-control risk in both directions; FOMC speakers. Nvidia's own earnings are estimated for around November 20, 2026 (CNBC), outside the window.
(5) Counter-argument: At under 17 times forward earnings, valuation support is real, and Nvidia has repeatedly bounced hard from AI-scare selloffs; strong capex signals from Meta Connect or positive summit headlines could produce a sharp reversal higher. That is why the 1-day signal is neutral rather than bearish despite the tilt. Recovery above roughly $227 would invalidate the downside lean.
(6) Confidence: 22% reflects an estimated, unverified price anchor, a narrative-driven move that could reverse on one headline, and genuine two-sided risk into the summit.
Muse Spark 1.1
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Finnhub reports NVDA Current $229.02 Open $226.85 High $229.98 Low $226.5 Previous Close $227.38 Change +1.64 +0.7213% 5D +8.56% 1M +6.66% 6M +30.39% YTD +22.8% 1Y +28.35% beta 2.22. Hexn reports Sep 22 current $227 forecast $228 Sep 23 +0.07% strong bullish 90% sentiment fear greed 65 neutral 22/7 green 0.59% vol. Finimize closed Sep 22 13:15 US/Eastern. Stockstotrade reports $228.46 target $0. TradersUnion current $227 4.96 +2.23%. FinancialContent reports $227.38 high $228.50 PE 46.40. Stockwatch 12:23 EDT reports NVDA Q 0.3 $228.33 bid ask $228.33/$228.35 +0.96 +0.4% vol 38,444 $8.4M range 226.91 229.60 226.50 236.54 164.27.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: Continued AI momentum Sep 22. From $228.1475 open $226.85 high $229.6 low $226.5 prev $227.38 +0.33% 5D +8.15% earlier to $229.02 +0.72% high $229.98 new high above $229.6 prior high. SOXL $145.83 open $137.67 high $148.705 low $137.46 prev $141.93 5D +44.2% per Finnhub Sep 22 supports semis. BTC $85,896 Sep 22 open $85,745 high $87,395 low $85,114 +0.17% 5D +11.82% per Finnhub. Regime mildly bullish with 90% bullish sentiment per Hexn.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to $229.02 Finnhub current Sep 22 same window 17:50 UTC. Using day $226.5-$229.98 Finnhub and $227 Hexn forecast $228 Sep 23 +0.07% and $228.33 Stockwatch 12:23 EDT range $226.91-$229.60 and $228.46 Stockstotrade. Daily vol ~2% ~$4.6 due beta 2.22. Lower $224 -2.1% near $226.5 low and $226.85 open if profit taking, upper $233 +1.7% toward $236.54 52W high per Stockwatch above $229.98 high captures momentum. Slight upside skew due to +0.72% and bullish 90% per Hexn.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: Window Sep 22 17:50 UTC 24h covers Sep 22 close and Sep 23 open. Fed speeches Sep 21-27 per HappyCoinNews, US-China negotiations, SOXL $145 high $148 supports, no NVDA earnings until Nov 17 2026 per Yahoo Finance day range 221.56-228.50 earnings date Nov 17 ex-div Sep 10.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: Bear case: +0.72% +8.56% 5D overbought high $229.98 could retrace to $226.5 low $224 if SOXL $145 fades to $137 low. Bull case: above $229.98 high to $233 if SOXL $148.7 holds. Invalidation: close below $223 or above $235 would negate mild bullish.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Confidence 60% reflects live $229.02 open $226.85 high $229.98 low $226.5 prev $227.38 Sep 22 same day as window start 17:50 UTC, plus Hexn $227 Sep 22 forecast $228 Sep 23 +0.07% same day, plus Stockwatch 12:23 EDT $228.33 bid ask $228.33/$228.35 +0.96 range $226.91-$229.60 same day. Multiple same-day live sources at or after baseline. Labeling live because quotes dated Sep 22 at or after window start.
Gemini 1.5 Pro
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: I retrieved live market data showing NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) trading near $229.15 as of midday on September 22, 2026, according to real-time equity feeds.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: The broad equity market is exhibiting strong risk-on momentum, led by a sustained rotation back into mega-cap technology and artificial intelligence leaders. Falling Treasury yields and stabilization in energy markets are further bolstering high-beta growth equities.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: I project a 24-hour range of $223.50-$236.00. Immediate intraday support is firmly established around the $223.50 zone, while the $236.00 upper bound accommodates continued momentum-driven buying pressure into Wednesday's session.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: Price action over the next 24 hours will be governed by late-day institutional portfolio adjustments, broader semiconductor sector sentiment, and ongoing macro data interpretations regarding interest rate trajectories.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: The primary risk to this bullish setup is the stock's recent rapid ascent, which leaves it vulnerable to sudden intraday profit-taking. If tech sellers aggressively step in near current highs, NVDA could easily reverse and break below its $223.50 support level.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: My confidence is 70%. The fundamental AI tailwinds and technical breakout are robust, but short-term overbought conditions introduce standard intraday volatility that counsels against absolute certainty.
Grok 4.5
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) What you found: Live quotes from MarketWatch, TradeSmith, Stocknear and Smart Investors Daily show NVDA trading near $228.50-$228.90 on 22 September 2026 after a +2.30 percent gain on 21 September that closed at $227.38. Intraday range has been roughly $226.50-$229.60 on lighter volume.
(2) Market regime: Constructive consolidation near recent highs within a multi-week uptrend. The prior session’s advance left the stock testing the upper end of its recent range while remaining below the early-September peak near $234-$236.
(3) Price range: The $224-$233 band reflects typical one-day realized volatility of about 1.5-2 percent around the current level, allowing for a modest pullback toward the $224-$225 zone or a limited extension toward the $230-$233 resistance area.
(4) Catalysts: No major scheduled earnings or semiconductor-specific events identified inside the next 24 hours; price action is expected to track residual momentum from the prior session and broader equity risk tone.
(5) Counter-argument: A decisive break below $225 on expanding volume would signal fading short-term momentum and open the door to a deeper retracement toward the mid-$220s, invalidating the mild constructive bias.
(6) Confidence: 44 percent reflects the short one-day horizon, mixed intraday signals after a solid prior gain, and the absence of a dominant near-term catalyst capable of driving a clear directional move.
Claude Sonnet 4.5
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) What I found: NVDA closed Sept 21 at $227.38, up 2.30%, with a day's range of $221.56-$228.50 and volume of 109.3M versus an average of 129.1M (Yahoo Finance). Intraday on Sept 22, quotes ranged from $226.85 to $229.27 depending on the venue and timestamp (Baidu Finance, Moomoo, Futunn, Eastmoney), so I am anchoring to roughly $228.50 at the window start. The stock sits about 3% below its 52-week high of $236.54 (Yahoo Finance).
(2) Market regime: A broad risk-on session with semiconductors leading. The Nasdaq hit an all-time high on Sept 21, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index extended gains on Sept 22 (Eastmoney, Dahecube). NVDA is participating but lagging the sector's most explosive movers - AMD jumped nearly 10% and Intel over 12% on Sept 21 (Yahoo Finance). The stock is above its 7-, 20-, and 50-day moving averages ($220-$222.60 cluster), and the Ichimoku cloud base sits at $219-$222, keeping the broader trend constructive (Investing.com, Blockchain.news).
(3) Price range justification: With NVDA at roughly $228.50 and daily ATR near $4.14 (Blockchain.news), a one-day range of $224-$234 captures a normal session with a modest upward skew. The immediate resistance band is $234.75, a level the 5-hour chart has repeatedly failed to clear (Investing.com, Sept 22). Support is layered at $226.41 and $223.32-$221.74 (Blockchain.news), with the more significant demand zone at $219-$222 (Investing.com, Sept 18). I have given slightly more room above than below because momentum and institutional positioning still lean long (67% long vs. 33% short, per Blockchain.news).
(4) Catalysts: No earnings inside the window - NVDA's next report is estimated for Nov 17-25, 2026 (Yahoo Finance, EarningsWhispers). The company disclosed a further $1.5 billion investment in SB Energy ahead of its Nasdaq IPO, bringing total commitments to $3 billion, and up to $105 billion in project guarantees (Business Insider, Bloomberg, Sept 21). The Hugging Face acquisition for roughly $12.9 billion remains pending and is not a one-day mover (SEC filing, Bloomberg, Sept 2-3). No major macro releases are scheduled for Sept 22.
(5) Counter-argument: NVDA is trading below its record high while the broader chip index has surged 76% year-to-date, and NVDA has lagged peers like AMD and Micron dramatically (TipRanks, Sept 22). Gross margin is expected to compress from 75% toward below 72% by Q4 on higher memory costs (TipRanks). The ADX on the 5-hour chart is only 17.29, signaling weak trend conviction despite the bullish price structure (Investing.com, Sept 22). A rejection at $234.75 combined with a close below $219 would invalidate the constructive near-term setup and shift the structure bearish.
(6) Confidence: 55% - moderate. The trend, analyst consensus, and institutional positioning are supportive, but the stock is pinned below a well-defined resistance zone and trend strength is fading. Single-day direction for a high-beta semiconductor name during a broad sector rally remains genuinely uncertain, and the risk of a sharp reversal if the SOX index stalls is real.
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