This is ForecastNest’s 1 day forecast for IONQ, created 2026-09-23 18:58 UTC. The window closed 2026-09-24 18:58 UTC, when IONQ closed at $45.02, up 5.4% from $42.70 when the forecast was made. It traded between $41.28 and $45.66 along the way (-3.3% to +6.9%).
Prediction window: Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.
Prediction time: 2026-09-23 18:58 UTC (9/23/2026, 2:58:24 PM EDT).
Valid until: 2026-09-24 18:58 UTC (9/24/2026, 2:58:24 PM EDT). Target session: 2026-09-24 (New York); During session. Lead time to expiry: 24 elapsed hours. Timing: Regular session. Based on stored prediction time, not verified model execution time.
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5 of the 6 models called a direction, and 2 of those calls were right. Each model is also asked to find the price it was forecasting from when it answers, shown as the dashed line inside its box in the picture below. All models except DeepSeek found it accurately.
Below are the details.
| Model | Range | Move | Confidence | Price it found | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | $39.50–$46.50 | -7.8% to +8.5% | 55% | $42.85 | 79.8 | right |
| Claude Opus 5 | $39.50–$46.50 | -8.1% to +8.1% | 22% | $43.00 | 49.8 | no call |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | $40.50–$45.50 | -6.1% to +5.5% | 59% | $43.11 | 30.4 | wrong |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | $41.00–$44.50 | -4.2% to +3.9% | 65% | $42.81 | 10.3 | wrong |
| Grok 4 | $40.50–$46.50 | -5.5% to +8.5% | 42% | $42.85 | 79.8 | right |
| DeepSeek | $41.00–$49.00 | -9.2% to +8.6% | 62% | $45.13 | 5.3 | wrong |
How these models have done on IONQ over 1 day
This forecast is settled and is included in the statistics below. The remaining records are forecasts created before 2026-09-23 18:58 UTC. Only settled directional calls count toward accuracy.
| Model | Asked | Still open | No call | Called up | Called down | Right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Sonnet 4.5 | 2 | — | 1 | 1 · 1 right | — | 100% (1/1) |
| GPT-5.6 Sol | 14 | — | 2 | 10 · 8 right | 2 · 1 right | 75% (9/12) |
| Grok 4 | 14 | — | 1 | 11 · 8 right | 2 · 1 right | 69% (9/13) |
| Claude Opus 5 | 17 | — | 2 | 2 · 1 right | 13 · 6 right | 47% (7/15) |
| DeepSeek | 15 | — | 0 | 11 · 6 right | 4 · 1 right | 47% (7/15) |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | 16 | — | 4 | 8 · 4 right | 4 · 1 right | 42% (5/12) |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | 11 | — | 2 | 3 · 2 right | 6 · 1 right | 33% (3/9) |
| GPT-6 | 3 | — | 3 | — | — | — |
| Other model | 1 | — | 1 | — | — | — |
Every published IONQ forecast over 1 day before this question was asked, on 2026-09-23 18:58 UTC, plus this settled forecast. Forecasts created after this question are excluded. Results reflect the settlements available when this article is generated. A day-ahead call and a week-ahead one are counted separately — they are different questions. Only settled forecasts are graded, so open + no call + up + down adds up to asked. “No call” is a range too centred on the price to be pointing anywhere. Accuracy counts only forecasts that have settled, and the count behind it is shown beside it — a single right call is not a 100% record.
What each model said
GPT-5.6 Sol
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) What I found: StockAnalysis showed IONQ at $42.85 at 1:37 PM EDT on September 23, up 5.17% from the September 22 close of $40.74, after opening at $45.84 and trading between $41.63 and $46.05. Because that timestamp is about 81 minutes before the requested 18:58 UTC baseline, I classify data_access as partial rather than live. Source: https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/ionq/
(2) Market regime: IONQ is experiencing a company-specific catalyst rally inside an otherwise weaker growth-stock tape. The stock surged as much as roughly 12% in premarket trading after IonQ announced a real-time quantum error-correction decoder and later confirmed that its Superion 256 system will be the first on-premises quantum computer deployed at NVIDIA's Accelerated Quantum Research Center. However, the stock has already faded materially from its $46.05 intraday high while the broader market is under pressure from a U.S. 10-year Treasury yield above 5%. Sources: https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/movers/26/09/61945487/quantum-stocks-rally-ionq-real-time-error-correction, https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/movers/26/09/61947635/ionq-makes-first-on-premise-quantum-deployment-at-nvidia-research-center and https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-09-23/
(3) Price range: I use $39.50-$46.50 for the next 24 hours. The lower bound allows most of today's catalyst-driven advance to unwind toward the prior $40-$41 consolidation zone if profit-taking continues or rates remain elevated. The upper bound slightly exceeds today's $46.05 high, allowing for renewed momentum if investors re-engage with the NVIDIA deployment and error-correction announcements. The range is skewed somewhat downward from the verified $42.85 quote because the stock has already rejected the upper part of today's range. Source: https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/ionq/
(4) Catalysts inside the window: The two strongest company-specific catalysts are substantive. IonQ said its Superion 256 system will be installed at NVIDIA's Accelerated Quantum Research Center and directly connected to NVIDIA's GB200 NVL72 infrastructure through NVQLink and CUDA-Q. IonQ also announced what it describes as the industry's first end-to-end real-time quantum error-correction decoder running on a standard CPU. These developments reinforce IonQ's integration with NVIDIA and its fault-tolerant computing roadmap. Sources: https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/movers/26/09/61947635/ionq-makes-first-on-premise-quantum-deployment-at-nvidia-research-center and https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/movers/26/09/61945487/quantum-stocks-rally-ionq-real-time-error-correction
(5) Strongest counter-argument: The bullish case is that today's pullback from the premarket spike is ordinary digestion after a genuine technical and commercial milestone rather than failed momentum. IonQ also has a broader run of recent commercialization announcements, including its September 21 SDT partnership and September 17 engineering-simulation results. The bearish counterweight is valuation: StockAnalysis lists a market capitalization near $17 billion against trailing-12-month revenue of about $246 million, while higher Treasury yields increase pressure on long-duration speculative equities. A sustained recovery above roughly $45-$46 would weaken the short-term bearish interpretation, while a break below roughly $41 would suggest the catalyst rally is unwinding more deeply. Sources: https://www.ionq.com/news, https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/ionq/ and https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/global-markets-treasuries-analysis-2026-09-23/
(6) Confidence: 55% reflects strongly conflicting forces. The NVIDIA deployment, real-time error-correction announcement and broader quantum-sector sympathy are meaningful positives, supporting MILD BULLISH over seven days. Against that, IONQ has already retraced sharply from today's $46.05 high, the 10-year Treasury yield is above 5%, and speculative growth stocks are vulnerable to further rate-driven pressure. Those forces leave the one-day signal NEUTRAL and the one-hour signal MILD BEARISH.
Claude Opus 5
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) What I found: TheStreet's September 23, 2026 live blog lists IonQ (+5.89%) among the top midday winners, behind Securitize (+13.03%) and ahead of AAON (+5.49%). Morningstar showed IONQ closing Monday, September 21 at $40.51, and a GuruFocus piece on Yahoo Finance had it up about 0.3% early Tuesday after announcing a multi-year agreement with South Korea's SDT covering the Superion 256 system, a planned hybrid quantum-classical data center and a Gumi manufacturing site. Combining Monday's close, a roughly flat Tuesday and today's midday gain gives about $43, which is an estimate rather than an observed quote at the 18:58 UTC window start. I have no reliable clock, so answered_at_utc is 'unknown'.
(2) Market regime: IONQ is showing clear relative strength on a bad tape. Bloomberg reports stocks and bonds falling together as Brent topped $101, business activity grew at the fastest pace since 2021 and Governor Barr signalled more tightening; the 10-year hit its highest since 2007 and TheStreet notes the 5-year crossing 5%. Chipmakers are sinking, yet quantum names are being bid, suggesting the move is idiosyncratic (SDT deal, Superion 256 launch, raised 2026 revenue guidance of $450M-$460M from the September Investor Day) rather than beta-driven.
(3) Price range: With daily volatility of roughly 5%-7% for quantum names and a 6% move already in hand today, I set $39.50-$46.50, near-symmetric around $43. The lower bound sits below Monday's $40.51 close, which is the level a full fade would revisit; the upper bound allows continuation toward the mid-$40s.
(4) Catalysts in the window: No scheduled company event; next earnings are November 11, 2026 (Investing.com). Drivers are follow-through in quantum peers such as RGTI and QBTS, further Fed commentary after Barr, the Trump-Xi state visit in Washington, and any additional partnership announcements, of which IonQ has made several this month.
(5) Counter-argument: Rising real yields are historically the worst backdrop for a cash-burning, pre-profit story stock, and IONQ has repeatedly given back single-session gains of this size (+9.43% on September 17 was followed by -6.16% on September 18, per TipRanks via CNN). If the rates move extends, today's relative strength can evaporate quickly. A drop back below about $41 would undercut the constructive short-term read, which is why the 1-day call is neutral rather than bullish.
(6) Confidence: 22% reflects a derived rather than observed price anchor, very high single-stock volatility, and a conflict between strong company-level momentum and a hostile macro tape.
Muse Spark 1.1
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Finnhub reports IONQ Current $43.11 Open $45.84 High $46.05 Low $41.63 Previous Close $40.74 5D +16.36% 1M +4.99% 6M +31.83% YTD -3.92% 1Y -41.63% beta 3.34. ChartExchange reports Market Open Sep 23 12:14 PM EDT $42.71 +4.836% +1.97 vol 52,382,352 bid $42.71 ask $42.73 spread $0.02 Pre-market Sep 23 9:29 AM EDT $46.04 +13.009% +5.30 vol 2,094,163. WSNext reports Sep 22 close $40.74 rising 12.27% after-hours to $45.74 Sep 23 $45.62 intraday $45.07-$46.50 vol 4.76M vs avg 18.33M. Concord Monitor $42.76 +2.02 11:43 AM EDT Sep 23. SpaceDew $42.58 +4.5% -26.4% $16.5B 0/4 50 rev Sep 2026. Motley Fool current $42.75 +4.93% +$2.01. FinancialContent reports trading at $42.79 +4.9% decoder across circuits simulating up to 408 logical qubits and 31.5M quantum operations and Superion 256 first on-premise quantum at NVIDIA Accelerated Quantum Research Center linking GB200 NVL72 via NVQLink. ChartMill $42.69 -2.15% last session no dividend.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: Breakthrough continuation Sep 23. From $40.74 close Sep 22 to $43.11 +5.8% Sep 23 and $46.05 high +13% from prev close to pre-market $46.04 +13% per ChartExchange. Volume 52M vs avg 18.33M per WSNext shows high interest but WSNext reports 4.76M lower than avg 18.33M conflicting but high vol $52M per ChartExchange. Decoder 408 logical qubits 31.5M ops and Superion 256 at NVIDIA GB200 via NVQLink per FinancialContent substantive catalyst supports $42.58-$42.79 levels. NVDA $225.37 -1.52% Sep 23 per Finnhub weighs but IONQ decouples +4.9%.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to $43.11 Finnhub current Sep 23 same window 18:58 UTC. Using day $41.63-$46.05 Finnhub and $42.71 +4.836% ChartExchange market open Sep 23 12:14 EDT and $46.04 +13% pre-market Sep 23 9:29 EDT and $45.62 $45.07-$46.50 WSNext Sep 23 and $42.76 Concord Monitor 11:43 EDT and $42.58 SpaceDew and $42.75 Motley Fool and $42.79 FinancialContent +4.9% and $42.69 ChartMill. Daily vol ~4% ~$1.7 due beta 3.34. Lower $40.50 -6% near $40.74 prev close and $41.63 low if profit taking below $42.71 bid, upper $45.50 +5.5% toward $46.05 high and $46.04 pre-market and $45.74 after-hours per WSNext captures breakout to $45.62. Slight upside skew due to decoder catalyst and +5.8% and +13% pre-market.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: Window Sep 23 18:58 UTC 24h to Sep 24 18:58 covers Sep 23 close and Sep 24 open. Catalyst decoder 408 logical qubits 31.5M ops and Superion 256 NVIDIA GB200 NVQLink per FinancialContent Sep 23, acquisition SkyWater per Motley Fool, $18B BTC options expiry Friday per CoinDesk Sep 23, Fed speeches Sep 21-27.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: Bear case: +5.8% +13% pre-market overbought high $46.05 could retrace to $40.50 below $41.63 low if NVDA -1.52% drags quantum and volume 4.76M vs 18.33M per WSNext shows low conviction. Bull case: above $46.05 high to $45.50 toward $46.50 WSNext high if decoder traction. Invalidation: close below $40 or above $47 would negate mild bullish.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Confidence 59% reflects live $43.11 open $45.84 high $46.05 low $41.63 prev $40.74 Sep 23 same day as window start 18:58 UTC, plus ChartExchange $42.71 +4.836% Sep 23 12:14 EDT vol 52M bid $42.71 ask $42.73 and pre-market $46.04 +13% Sep 23 9:29 EDT vol 2M, plus WSNext $40.74 close Sep 22 +12.27% after-hours $45.74 Sep 23 $45.62 range $45.07-$46.50, plus Concord Monitor $42.76 11:43 EDT Sep 23 and SpaceDew $42.58 +4.5% and Motley Fool $42.75 +4.93% and FinancialContent $42.79 +4.9% decoder 408 qubits. Multiple same-day live sources at or after baseline. Labeling live because quotes dated Sep 23 at or after window start.
Gemini 1.5 Pro
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: I retrieved live market data showing IonQ Inc. (IONQ) trading near $42.81 as of 2:58 PM EDT on September 23, 2026, based on real-time financial search results.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: The equity is experiencing significant intraday volatility. Following a strong gap up at the open to $45.84 from the previous close of $40.74, the stock has pulled back and is currently digesting those early gains, reflecting a high-beta growth market environment prone to rapid momentum shifts.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: I project a 24-hour range of $41.00-$44.50. The stock is consolidating its morning surge; the $41.00 level serves as near-term support to protect against a full gap-fill, while $44.50 represents resistance as buyers attempt to reclaim the morning highs.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: Price action over the next 24 hours will likely be driven by late-session institutional portfolio adjustments, momentum-chasing day traders, and the broader technology sector's digestion of recent market gains.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: The primary risk to this consolidating outlook is the stock's elevated intraday volatility. A sudden shift to risk-off sentiment or aggressive profit-taking could force the stock to fully close its morning gap, dragging it well below the $41.00 support level.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: My confidence is 65%. While the asset has established a solid trading range today, the inherent volatility of early-stage quantum computing equities and the magnitude of today's initial gap introduce moderate uncertainty for a tight 24-hour forecast.
Grok 4
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Live quotes from StockAnalysis, WSJ, TradeSmith, Stockmonitor and others show IONQ trading near $42.70-$42.96 as of approximately 2:30-2:45 p.m. EDT on September 23, 2026 (examples include $42.70 at 2:45 p.m. and $42.96 at 2:48 p.m.). Previous close was $40.74. Day range has been roughly $41.63-$46.05 on elevated volume exceeding 60 million shares.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: Positive catalyst-driven session. IonQ announced an industry-first end-to-end real-time quantum error-correction decoder running on a single standard CPU (tested on circuits simulating up to 408 logical qubits) and separately confirmed its Superion 256 system will be the first quantum processor installed at Nvidia’s Accelerated Quantum Research Center (deployment targeted for 2027). These developments lifted the stock and broader quantum names intraday. The shares remain well below 2025-2026 highs near $84 and exhibit high beta.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to the ~$42.85 quote, the $40.50-$46.50 range reflects the stock’s elevated single-day volatility (today’s range already exceeded $4 and recent sessions have shown multi-dollar swings). Support aligns with the prior close and recent consolidation near $40-$41; resistance sits near the session high and psychological $46 area. The range is modestly asymmetric higher to allow for residual news momentum.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: No major scheduled corporate events in the immediate 24-hour period. Residual focus on any follow-up commentary regarding the error-correction results or Nvidia collaboration details. Broader tech and quantum sector sentiment may influence overnight trading.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: Profit-taking after the sharp gap-and-run could push the shares back toward or below $40.50 if the broader market weakens or if investors question the near-term commercial impact of the 2027 Nvidia deployment. A decisive break above $46.50 on continued volume would invalidate the contained range view.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: One-day direction after a news-driven gap is frequently noisy for high-beta quantum names. Live price and catalyst details provide a clear anchor, but the combination of elevated volatility, mixed longer-term technicals, and absence of further scheduled news keeps conviction in the low-40s percent range.
DeepSeek
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) What I found, and where: IONQ is trading at $45.13 as of midday September 23, up 10.78% on the day, with an intraday range of $39.87-$45.96 (eToro, Robinhood quotes). The move follows two catalysts announced in the last 24 hours: (a) IonQ demonstrated the industry's first end-to-end real-time quantum error decoder running on a standard CPU, enabling fault-tolerant computing across millions of operations without slowing execution (IonQ press release, September 22); and (b) IonQ's Superion 256 quantum computer will be the first QPU installed at Nvidia's Accelerated Quantum Research Center, directly linked to an NVIDIA GB200 NVL72 system (IonQ press release, September 23). Separately, IonQ raised its full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $450-460 million on September 8, a roughly 60% increase from its prior $280-290 million range, following the SkyWater acquisition.
(2) The current market regime: IONQ is in a powerful momentum regime, but one that is highly volatile. The stock opened at $40.74, briefly dipped to $39.87, then surged to $46.05 before settling near $45. The VWAP is overhead near $41.74 (KuCoin technical note), meaning the current price is well above the volume-weighted average - a sign of aggressive buying. The options market is extraordinarily active: 37,000 calls changed hands in the first half hour, eight times the average intraday volume, with the weekly 9/25 $45-strike call the most popular (Schaeffer's). The Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 60% sits in the bottom percentile of its annual range, meaning options are cheap relative to realized volatility. Short interest stands at 41.05 million shares, 10.4% of float, with less than two days to cover (Schaeffer's, MarketWatch).
(3) Price range justification: I am using $41-$49, with slightly more room above the current quote because the momentum and catalyst flow favor upside continuation. Support is at $41.74 (VWAP) and $39.87 (intraday low); a break below $41.74 would signal that buyers are losing control. Resistance is at $46.10 (the key level from the KuCoin technical note) and $49, which is roughly double the March 52-week low of $25.89 and a level Schaeffer's flagged as a potential short-squeeze target. The daily ATR for IONQ is approximately $3-4, so a $8 range over 24 hours is consistent with the stock's recent volatility. The 200-day moving average remains overhead as a longer-term cap.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: The Quantum World Congress 2026 runs September 23-25 in College Park, Maryland - IonQ's home base - and IonQ CEO Niccolo de Masi is a featured speaker. B. Riley reiterated Buy ratings on IONQ (and peers QBTS, RGTI) ahead of the conference, citing signs that US quantum policy may be shifting from research funding toward commercialization (TipRanks, September 22). Any positive policy announcements, contract wins, or partnership news during the conference would be an immediate catalyst. The September 25 weekly options expiry, with heavy open interest at the $45 strike, adds gamma-related volatility.
(5) The strongest counter-argument: The bearish case rests on valuation and the sustainability of the move. IonQ trades at roughly 52 times forward sales (Nasdaq, September 2026) and reported a Q2 EBITDA loss of $120.3 million, more than triple the year-ago loss (Yonhap Infomax). The rally has been driven partly by short covering and options speculation, not purely by fundamental demand. If the Quantum World Congress produces no new contract or policy news, or if the broader tech sell-off deepens, IONQ could give back a large portion of today's gains. A close below $41.74 (VWAP) would invalidate the bullish continuation thesis and open the door to $39.87 and potentially $37.
(6) Why confidence is 62%: The bullish case is supported by three concrete factors: (1) two substantive, verifiable catalysts announced in the last 24 hours (quantum error correction breakthrough and Nvidia partnership); (2) an active, time-bound catalyst window (Quantum World Congress, September 23-25); and (3) extremely aggressive call buying and cheap options pricing that could fuel a short squeeze. However, a 1-day horizon on a highly volatile quantum stock is inherently noisy, and the stock is already up over 10% on the day, which increases the risk of profit-taking. A confidence of 62% reflects a moderate directional edge, not a high-conviction call.
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