This is ForecastNest’s 1 day forecast for NVDA, created 2026-09-23 19:04 UTC. The window closed 2026-09-24 19:04 UTC, when NVDA closed at $224.00, down 0.5% from $225.16 when the forecast was made. It traded between $221.09 and $225.80 along the way (-1.8% to +0.3%).
Prediction window: Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.
Prediction time: 2026-09-23 19:04 UTC (9/23/2026, 3:04:46 PM EDT).
Valid until: 2026-09-24 19:04 UTC (9/24/2026, 3:04:46 PM EDT). Target session: 2026-09-24 (New York); During session. Lead time to expiry: 24 elapsed hours. Timing: Regular session. Based on stored prediction time, not verified model execution time.
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4 of the 6 models called a direction, and 1 of those calls were right. Each model is also asked to find the price it was forecasting from when it answers, shown as the dashed line inside its box in the picture below. All models except Claude Opus 5 found it accurately.
Below are the details.
| Model | Range | Move | Confidence | Price it found | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | $218.50–$232.50 | -3.1% to +3.1% | 60% | $225.54 | 52.7 | no call |
| Claude Opus 5 | $212.00–$227.00 | -3.5% to +3.3% | 28% | $219.74 | 32.0 | wrong |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | $221.00–$230.00 | -1.9% to +2.1% | 58% | $225.33 | 53.2 | no call |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | $221.00–$229.00 | -1.9% to +1.7% | 70% | $225.26 | 81.5 | right |
| Grok 4 | $222.00–$230.00 | -1.5% to +2.0% | 45% | $225.40 | 31.4 | wrong |
| DeepSeek | $218.00–$235.00 | -3.6% to +3.9% | 58% | $226.13 | 30.4 | wrong |
How these models have done on NVDA over 1 day
This forecast is settled and is included in the statistics below. The remaining records are forecasts created before 2026-09-23 19:04 UTC. Only settled directional calls count toward accuracy.
| Model | Asked | Still open | No call | Called up | Called down | Right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muse Spark 1.1 | 5 | — | 1 | 1 · 1 right | 3 · 2 right | 75% (3/4) |
| Claude Opus 5 | 6 | — | 1 | 3 · 2 right | 2 · 1 right | 60% (3/5) |
| GPT-5.6 Sol | 5 | — | 1 | 4 · 2 right | — | 50% (2/4) |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | 5 | — | 0 | 3 · 1 right | 2 · 1 right | 40% (2/5) |
| DeepSeek | 4 | — | 1 | 3 · 0 right | — | 0% (0/3) |
| Grok 4 | 4 | — | 2 | 1 · 0 right | 1 · 0 right | 0% (0/2) |
| Claude Sonnet 4.5 | 1 | — | 0 | 1 · 0 right | — | 0% (0/1) |
Every published NVDA forecast over 1 day before this question was asked, on 2026-09-23 19:04 UTC, plus this settled forecast. Forecasts created after this question are excluded. Results reflect the settlements available when this article is generated. A day-ahead call and a week-ahead one are counted separately — they are different questions. Only settled forecasts are graded, so open + no call + up + down adds up to asked. “No call” is a range too centred on the price to be pointing anywhere. Accuracy counts only forecasts that have settled, and the count behind it is shown beside it — a single right call is not a 100% record.
What each model said
GPT-5.6 Sol
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) What I found: Benzinga showed NVIDIA at $225.544 at 2:22 PM EDT on September 23, down roughly 1.5% from the prior close. ChartExchange independently showed NVDA near $226.05-$226.20 earlier in the session, also down more than 1%, confirming a weaker intraday tape. Because the freshest precisely timestamped quote I could verify was about 42 minutes before the requested 19:04 UTC baseline, I classify data_access as partial rather than live. Sources: https://www.benzinga.com/quote/NVDA and https://chartexchange.com/symbol/nasdaq-nvda/
(2) Market regime: The immediate regime is risk-off for high-duration technology and semiconductor shares. Reuters reported the Nasdaq down about 1.07% and the S&P 500 down about 0.65% as the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield reached its highest level since 2007 and oil prices rebounded. NVIDIA remains supported by strong structural AI demand, but today's decline shows that rising discount rates are temporarily outweighing that fundamental backdrop. Source: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/wall-st-futures-steady-with-focus-mideast-talks-us-china-summit-2026-09-23/
(3) Price range: I use $218.50-$232.50 for the next 24 hours. The lower bound allows another roughly 3% decline from the verified $225.54 quote toward the recent $218-$220 support zone if Treasury yields remain above 5% and semiconductor selling broadens. The upper bound allows a recovery toward the September 22-23 resistance region without assuming an immediate breakout above the recent $236.54 52-week high. Sources: https://www.benzinga.com/quote/NVDA and https://chartexchange.com/symbol/nasdaq-nvda/
(4) Catalysts inside the window: NVIDIA-specific fundamentals remain constructive. IonQ announced that its Superion 256 quantum computer will be installed at NVIDIA's Accelerated Quantum Research Center and integrated through NVQLink and CUDA-Q, reinforcing NVIDIA's position as infrastructure for hybrid quantum-AI research. More broadly, demand for AI compute remains strong, but hyperscaler financing requirements and AI-related corporate debt issuance are receiving greater scrutiny. Sources: https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/movers/26/09/61947635/ionq-makes-first-on-premise-quantum-deployment-at-nvidia-research-center and https://www.reuters.com/legal/transactional/corporate-bond-buyers-get-picky-with-flood-ai-debt-2026-09-22/
(5) Strongest counter-argument: The bullish case is that today's weakness is macro-driven rather than evidence of deteriorating NVIDIA demand. NVIDIA remains above its 50-day moving average near $215, and its core AI infrastructure franchise continues to benefit from hyperscaler, sovereign and enterprise investment. A sustained recovery above roughly $229-$231 would weaken the mild bearish one-day interpretation, while a break below roughly $222-$223 would suggest that rate-driven selling is becoming a deeper correction. Sources: https://chartexchange.com/symbol/nasdaq-nvda/ and https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/nvda/
(6) Confidence: 60% reflects a moderate short-term bearish edge. NVIDIA is already down during the session, the Nasdaq is weaker, Treasury yields are at multi-decade highs and higher discount rates disproportionately pressure high-growth technology valuations. Confidence is capped because NVIDIA's underlying AI demand remains strong, the stock is still above important medium-term technical levels, and my freshest precisely timestamped quote predates the requested baseline by about 42 minutes.
Claude Opus 5
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) What I found: InvestSmart shows NVDA at $219.74, down $5.27 (-2.34%) from today's open and about 1.01% above the $217.55 level of seven days ago, with a 2026 range of $164.28-$236.54. That is consistent with the broad chip weakness TheStreet and Bloomberg describe today, and with MacroTrends' $222.27 close for September 18 followed by Monday's roughly +2.2% move. I could not confirm the exact timestamp on that quote, so treat $219.74 as very close to but possibly not exactly the 19:04 UTC window level. I have no reliable clock, so answered_at_utc is 'unknown'.
(2) Market regime: A rates shock is driving a de-rating of AI-linked semis. Bloomberg reports stocks and bonds falling together as Brent topped $101 and flash data showed the fastest US business-activity growth since 2021, with Governor Michael Barr saying further tightening is likely; 10-year yields hit their highest since 2007 and TheStreet notes the 5-year crossing 5% for the first time since 2007. Bloomberg separately notes Nvidia's forward multiple has dropped below 17 times next-twelve-month earnings, near its cheapest in over a decade and about half its 2025 level, while a Schwab Network post says roughly $1 trillion of market value has been shed in under two months.
(3) Price range: NVDA's recent daily swings run 2%-4% ($5-$9). I set $212-$227 around $219.74, slightly skewed lower to reflect today's downtrend and the rates backdrop. The lower bound allows continuation toward the mid-$210s where the stock traded a week ago; the upper bound covers a full recovery of Monday's gain area.
(4) Catalysts in the window: Further Fed speakers after Barr's remarks; oil headlines following Trump's UN ultimatum to Iran; the Trump-Xi state visit in Washington, with Jensen Huang reportedly attending the state dinner, which makes China export-control headlines a live two-way risk. Nvidia's own earnings are estimated for around November 20, 2026 (CNBC), outside the window.
(5) Counter-argument: A sub-17x forward multiple on a company Huang says could sell twice as many chips next year is genuine valuation support, and Nvidia has repeatedly reversed AI-scare selloffs within a session or two; a constructive summit headline could spark a sharp bounce. That balance is why the 1-day call is neutral despite the intraday downtrend. Recovery above about $225 would negate the near-term downside tilt.
(6) Confidence: 28% reflects a price anchor whose exact timestamp I could not verify, a macro driver that has flipped twice this week, and genuine two-sided risk around the state visit.
Muse Spark 1.1
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Finnhub reports NVDA Current $225.335 Open $228.03 High $228.95 Low $224.02 Previous Close $228.87 Change -3.535 -1.5445% 5D +6.2% 1M +8.08% 6M +28.62% YTD +20.82% 1Y +27.33% beta 2.22. Finimize reports Closed Sep 23 14:00 US/Eastern. Hexn reports current $229 forecast $229 Sep 24 +0.07% strong bullish 90% sentiment fear greed 65 neutral 21/7 green 0.55% vol. MarketBeat reports NVDA opened $228.87 market cap $5.52T PE 28.93 PEG 1.76 beta 2.22 50-day $215.47 200-day $205.09. FinancialContent reports $227.38 high $228.50 PE 46.40 1Y +43.77 +23.84%. Yahoo Finance Bid $228.89 x 400 Earnings Nov 17 2026 Ex-div Sep 10 2026.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: Pullback Sep 23 after +6.2% 5D per Finnhub. From $228.87 prev to $225.335 -1.54% intraday low $224.02 -2.1% from prev. SOXL $145.2 -4.44% open $149.89 high $151 low $139.58 prev $151.95 per Finnhub Sep 23 shows semis weakness, GOOG $337.94 -2.72% per Finnhub Sep 23, BTC $83,870 -3.10% per Finnhub Sep 23. 50-day $215.47 support above $224 low per MarketBeat. Regime mildly bearish intraday but bullish weekly.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to $225.335 Finnhub current Sep 23 same window 19:04 UTC. Using day $224.02-$228.95 Finnhub and $229 Hexn current forecast $229 Sep 24 +0.07% and $227.38 FinancialContent high $228.50 and $228.87 open MarketBeat and $215.47 50-day per MarketBeat support. Daily vol ~2% ~$4.5 due beta 2.22. Lower $221 -1.9% near $224.02 low and $215.47 50-day + $224 support if $224 breaks, upper $230 +2% toward $228.95 high and $229 Hexn and $228.89 bid per Yahoo Finance captures bounce to $229. Slight downside skew today due to -1.54% intraday but 1d mildly bearish due to SOXL -4.44%.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: Window Sep 23 19:04 UTC 24h to Sep 24 19:04 covers Sep 23 close and Sep 24 open. Catalyst Superion 256 first on-premise quantum at NVIDIA Accelerated Quantum Research Center linking GB200 NVL72 via NVQLink per FinancialContent Sep 23, Fed speeches Sep 21-27 per HappyCoinNews, earnings Nov 17 2026 per Yahoo Finance.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: Bear case: -1.54% below $225 to $224 low could retrace to $221 below $224.02 if SOXL $139.58 low breaks. Bull case: above $228.95 high to $230 toward $229 Hexn if Superion catalyst lifts. Invalidation: close below $219 or above $232 would negate mild bearish.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Confidence 58% reflects live $225.335 open $228.03 high $228.95 low $224.02 prev $228.87 Sep 23 same day as window start 19:04 UTC, plus Finimize closed Sep 23 14:00 ET same day, plus Hexn $229 forecast $229 Sep 24 +0.07% bullish 90% same day Sep 23, plus MarketBeat open $228.87 cap $5.52T PE 28.93 PEG 1.76 beta 2.22 50-day $215.47 200-day $205.09 Sep 23. Multiple same-day live sources at or after baseline. Labeling live because quotes dated Sep 23 at or after window start.
Gemini 1.5 Pro
Result: right
View full reasoning
...
Grok 4
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Live quotes from TECHi ($225.37 as of 2:57 p.m. EDT), MarketWatch ($225.32 around 1:58 p.m.), TradeSmith, Stocknear and others show NVDA trading near $224.50-$225.60 in the afternoon of September 23, 2026. Previous close was $228.87. Day range has been approximately $224.02-$228.95 on moderate volume.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: Short-term consolidation after a multi-day advance. The stock remains near the upper end of its 52-week range amid continued strong AI data-center demand narrative, recent fiscal Q2 results showing $96.2 billion revenue, and forward commentary pointing to further growth. Broader semiconductor weakness and attention on upcoming geopolitical discussions have contributed to today’s modest pullback.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to the ~$225.40 quote, the $222-$230 range reflects typical one-day realized moves for NVDA (recent ATR and daily ranges often $4-$8). Support aligns with the session low and prior consolidation zones near $222-$224; resistance sits near the prior close and recent highs around $229-$230. The range is roughly symmetric given the absence of a dominant directional catalyst for the next session.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: No major corporate earnings or product launches in the immediate 24-hour period. Residual sensitivity to any updates related to China sales outlook, broader tech sentiment, or residual commentary around the Trump-Xi meeting context noted in recent coverage. Sector flows in semiconductors may influence overnight action.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: Renewed buying on AI infrastructure optimism or positive sector rotation could push the shares back above $230 quickly. Conversely, broader risk-off flows or further chip-sector selling could drive a test of $222 or lower. A decisive close outside the stated range on elevated volume would invalidate the near-term neutral stance.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: One-day equity moves after a modest down session in a high-profile name are frequently noise-dominated. Live price and recent session data provide a clear anchor, but mixed short-term technicals and lack of an immediate catalyst keep conviction in the mid-40s percent range.
DeepSeek
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) What I found, and where: NVDA was trading at $226.13 at 10:59 AM ET (14:59 UTC), down 1.20% on the day, per moomoo's real-time quote. The stock opened at $228.00 and had an intraday range of $225.02-$228.95. The prior session (September 22) closed at $228.87, up 0.66%, per Yahoo Finance. Options volume on September 22 was 2.16 million contracts, with calls at 69.74% of total volume (moomoo). The put/call ratio was 0.6, slightly above the typical 0.57, with a steepening put-call skew indicating increased demand for downside protection (Cboe data via TipRanks). Implied volatility (IV30) was 30.64, in the lowest 10% of observations over the past year, suggesting an expected daily move of $4.36 (Cboe/TipRanks).
(2) The current market regime: NVDA is in a consolidation phase within a broader uptrend. The stock has been trapped below $235 since mid-May and is currently testing the lower end of its recent range. The 5-hour chart shows price holding above the Ichimoku cloud with key support at $219-$222, but weak ADX (17.29) signals fading trend strength (Investing.com, September 22). The $222.27 dark-pool magnet identified by KuCoin (September 19) is the tape's center of gravity. A record high of $235.74 was set on May 14, and the stock has not closed at a record since - 87 trading days ago (Yahoo Finance, September 20).
(3) Price range justification: I am using $218-$235, with more room below the current quote. The $222.27 dark-pool magnet and the $219-$222 Ichimoku/SMA confluence zone are the first major support. Below that, the $215 structural low from early September provides deeper support (Fundstrat). On the upside, $228.10 is the upper Bollinger Band resistance where prior attempts have failed (Investing.com), and $234.75-$235.74 is the record-high resistance zone. With an expected daily move of $4.36 from options pricing, a $17 range over 24 hours is consistent with NVDA's typical volatility.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: The most significant near-term catalyst is the Trump-Xi summit in Washington on Thursday, September 24, with Jensen Huang expected to attend the White House state dinner. Investors are hoping the summit leads to an agreement unblocking chip shipments to China, with KeyBanc estimating Chinese tech giants would buy about 1.5 million H200 chips - nearly $30 billion in potential revenue (TipRanks, September 21). This catalyst falls immediately after the 1-day window but positioning ahead of it is already influencing price. Earnings are not due until November 17, 2026 (Yahoo Finance).
(5) The strongest counter-argument: The bullish case rests on the powerful AI demand narrative, with Jensen Huang stating NVDA expects to sell twice as many AI chips this year and Grace Blackwell shipments up 27% month-over-month (CNBC, September 17). The $30 billion China opportunity from the Trump-Xi summit is a massive potential catalyst, and the low implied volatility suggests options are cheap relative to realized moves. The counter-argument is that the stock has failed at $235 resistance for four months, the put-call skew is steepening (institutions are buying downside protection), and the broader tech sell-off on September 23 (Nasdaq down 1.21%) is creating sector-wide headwinds. A close below $222.27 would invalidate the bullish continuation thesis and open the door to $218 and potentially $215.
(6) Why confidence is 58%: The bearish intraday case is supported by the steepening put-call skew, the failure to hold above $228, and the broader tech sell-off. However, the massive China catalyst on Thursday, the historically low implied volatility, and the strong AI demand narrative create real two-way risk. A 1-day horizon on a mega-cap stock with a binary geopolitical catalyst immediately after the window is inherently noisy. A confidence of 58% reflects a modest directional edge, not a high-conviction call.
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