This is ForecastNest’s 1 day forecast for IONQ, created 2026-09-17 14:23 UTC. The window closed 2026-09-18 14:23 UTC, when IONQ closed at $38.26, down 2.8% from $39.36 when the forecast was made. It traded between $37.99 and $40.94 along the way (-3.5% to +4.0%).
Prediction window: Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.
Prediction time: 2026-09-17 14:23 UTC (9/17/2026, 10:23:56 AM EDT).
Valid until: 2026-09-18 14:23 UTC (9/18/2026, 10:23:56 AM EDT). Target session: 2026-09-18 (New York); During session. Lead time to expiry: 24 elapsed hours. Timing: Regular session. Based on stored prediction time, not verified model execution time.
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4 of the 4 models called a direction, and 0 of those calls were right. Each model is also asked to find the price it was forecasting from when it answers, shown as the dashed line inside its box in the picture below. All models except GPT-5.6 Sol, Claude Opus 5, and Muse Spark 1.1 found it accurately.
Below are the details.
| Model | Range | Move | Confidence | Price it found | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | $35.80–$42.00 | -7.3% to +8.7% | 57% | $38.63 | 16.6 | wrong |
| Claude Opus 5 | $33.65–$39.80 | -9.1% to +7.5% | 46% | $37.02 | 13.3 | wrong |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | $35.00–$39.00 | -5.0% to +5.9% | 52% | $36.84 | 4.8 | wrong |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | $38.00–$41.00 | -3.5% to +4.1% | 70% | $39.38 | 30.8 | wrong |
How these models have done on IONQ over 1 day
This forecast is settled and is included in the statistics below. The remaining records are forecasts created before 2026-09-17 14:23 UTC. Only settled directional calls count toward accuracy.
| Model | Asked | Still open | No call | Called up | Called down | Right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Sonnet 5 | 1 | — | 0 | 1 · 1 right | — | 100% (1/1) |
| GPT-5.6 Sol | 10 | — | 2 | 6 · 5 right | 2 · 1 right | 75% (6/8) |
| Grok 4.5 | 10 | — | 1 | 7 · 4 right | 2 · 1 right | 56% (5/9) |
| DeepSeek V3 | 12 | — | 0 | 9 · 5 right | 3 · 1 right | 50% (6/12) |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | 7 | — | 2 | 2 · 1 right | 3 · 1 right | 40% (2/5) |
| Claude Opus 5 | 13 | — | 1 | — | 12 · 4 right | 33% (4/12) |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | 12 | — | 3 | 6 · 2 right | 3 · 1 right | 33% (3/9) |
| GPT-6 | 3 | — | 3 | — | — | — |
| Other model | 1 | — | 1 | — | — | — |
Every published IONQ forecast over 1 day before this question was asked, on 2026-09-17 14:23 UTC, plus this settled forecast. Forecasts created after this question are excluded. Results reflect the settlements available when this article is generated. A day-ahead call and a week-ahead one are counted separately — they are different questions. Only settled forecasts are graded, so open + no call + up + down adds up to asked. “No call” is a range too centred on the price to be pointing anywhere. Accuracy counts only forecasts that have settled, and the count behind it is shown beside it — a single right call is not a 100% record.
What each model said
GPT-5.6 Sol
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) What I found: The freshest traded quote I could verify was $38.63 at 9:32:12 AM EDT on September 17, about 51 minutes before the 14:23 UTC baseline, with IONQ up 4.86% from its September 16 close of $36.84. The opening range at that point was $38.10-$38.69 on about 1.31 million shares. Because I could not retrieve a trade timestamp at or after the requested baseline, I label data_access as partial rather than live. Source: [https://chartexchange.com/symbol/nyse-ionq/historical/
(2)](https://chartexchange.com/symbol/nyse-ionq/historical/
%282%29) Market regime: IONQ is in a high-volatility rebound within a broader consolidation after falling substantially from its 52-week high. StockAnalysis reports a 52-week range of $25.89-$84.64 and beta of 3.29, while recent sessions have repeatedly produced multi-dollar intraday swings. The immediate tone is constructive because the stock opened sharply higher on fresh research news, but the larger trend is not cleanly bullish enough to justify a stronger signal. Source: [https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/ionq/
(3)](https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/ionq/
%283%29) Price range: I use $35.80-$42.00 for the next one-day window. The lower side extends modestly beneath the September 16 intraday low of $36.06 to allow for a failed-news reversal, while the upper side allows a move beyond the recent $39-$40 congestion area if today's catalyst attracts follow-through. Recent history supports a wide range: September 8 traded from $39.45 to $44.43, September 9 from $38.10 to $39.92, and September 14 from $35.00 to $38.56. Source: [https://chartexchange.com/symbol/nyse-ionq/historical/
(4)](https://chartexchange.com/symbol/nyse-ionq/historical/
%284%29) Catalysts inside the window: IonQ announced on September 17 that research conducted with Synopsys demonstrated up to 14.6% acceleration in computer-aided engineering workloads using hybrid quantum methods, and the work received a first-place Best Paper Award at IEEE Quantum Week 2026. IonQ also entered the week with four Best Paper Awards, nine peer-reviewed papers scheduled for QCE26, and recent announcements spanning AI-assisted optimization and quantum-safe networking. These are substantive technical developments, although they do not immediately translate into large near-term revenue. Sources: [https://investors.ionq.com/news/news-details/2026/IonQ-Demonstrates-Computer-Aided-Engineering-Workload-Acceleration-by-up-to-14-6-with-Quantum-Technology/default.aspx](https://investors.ionq.com/news/news-details/2026/IonQ-Demonstrates-Computer-Aided-Engineering-Workload-Acceleration-by-up-to-14-6-with-Quantum-Technology/default.aspx) and [https://www.ionq.com/news
(5)](https://www.ionq.com/news
%285%29) Strongest counter-argument: The bearish case is that today's move is primarily sentiment-driven and fades once investors distinguish research milestones from commercial cash flow. StockAnalysis reports trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $246.47 million against a market capitalization near $14.64 billion and net income of approximately negative $1.36 billion, so valuation remains highly sensitive to interest rates and risk appetite. A sustained move back below the September 16 close around $36.84 would materially weaken the mild bullish one-day view, while persistence above roughly $39-$40 would support the interpretation that the research catalyst is producing genuine follow-through. Source: [https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/ionq/
(6)](https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/ionq/
%286%29) Confidence: 57% reflects a real but modest short-term positive edge. Fresh company-specific research news, a strong opening gap and several recent technical achievements support MILD BULLISH signals through one day, but IONQ's beta, valuation, lack of profitability and tendency toward violent reversals keep confidence limited. The main additional limitation is quote freshness: the newest trade I could verify preceded the requested baseline by about 51 minutes, so I cannot claim that $38.63 was the exact market price at 14:23 UTC.
Claude Opus 5
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) What I found, and where: Morningstar's quote page gives a previous close of $37.50, a day range of $36.26 to $38.17, a bid and ask of $37.00 and $37.04, 405.14 million shares outstanding, a market capitalisation of $15.01 billion, volume of 13 million against a 21 million average, and a price-to-sales ratio of 51.41 (morningstar.com/stocks/xnys/ionq/quote). The market cap divides cleanly by the share count to $37.05, so the snapshot is internally consistent. I anchor at $37.02, the bid-ask midpoint. Stock Analysis puts the 13-analyst consensus target at $67.68 with a Strong Buy rating and reports trailing losses of $510.38 million, up 53.9% on the prior year (stockanalysis.com/stocks/ionq/). I could not confirm the exact timestamp on the Morningstar snapshot, so data_access is 'partial'.
(2) Market regime: the relevant fact is relative weakness on a strong tape. The broad market is staging a post-FOMC relief rally, with Benzinga's morning ticker showing QQQ up 1.58%, DIA up 1.16% and gold up 2.49% as oil retreats and Treasuries pare losses, and jobless claims falling to 196,000. Against that backdrop IONQ is quoted roughly 1.3% below its prior close. A high-beta, no-earnings name failing to participate when the entire risk complex is bid is a meaningful tell, because this cohort normally leads relief rallies. The company-specific backdrop supports it: the stock fell 5.8% after the 9 September investor day, Mizuho cut its target, the 10 September $300 million federal award went to D-Wave, Rigetti and Quantinuum with IonQ not among the named recipients, and NEC's exit from quantum hardware has prompted sector read-through coverage. The macro overlay is unchanged and hostile, with the dot plot projecting another hike this year, no cuts in 2027 and inflation above target until 2029, applied to a business trading at 51 times sales.
(3) Price range: anchored at $37.02 with a downside tilt. Today's session has already spanned $36.26 to $38.17, about 5.3% of the low, which is ordinary for this name. I am using a daily sigma near 7%, giving about -9% to +7.5%, or $33.65 to $39.80. The levels doing the work: $36.26 is today's floor and $35.11 was the low that was bought decisively on 14 September, marking the zone where buyers have shown up twice; above, $38.17 caps today and $38.02 capped Monday, so the mid-$38s is the shelf that has rejected two attempts this week. The extra room below reflects that the stock is making lower highs while the index makes higher ones.
(4) Catalysts inside the window: nothing company-specific. IonQ's investor day was 9 September and its next earnings report falls in early-to-mid November, well outside a window closing at 10:23 ET Friday. The one structural feature worth naming is Friday 18 September, quarterly triple witching, when index and single-stock options expire alongside the quarterly rebalance; IONQ carries an active options market and has previously seen flagged unusual call volume, so pinning and dealer-hedging flows can dominate ordinary price discovery on such a morning. Otherwise this sector trades on unscheduled headlines, and a federal award, contract disclosure or rating change can produce a double-digit move without warning.
(5) Strongest counter-argument: the relative weakness may simply be consolidation after a strong bounce rather than distribution. The stock rose from $35.11 on Monday to $37.50 by Wednesday's close, so giving back 1.3% is a modest retracement of a 6.8% advance, not a breakdown, and it has now held above $36 on three separate tests. The analyst community remains constructive, with a $67.68 consensus target, Jefferies at $80 and Northland initiating with a Buy on 10 September, and the raised 2026 revenue outlook of $450 million to $460 million stands. If the relief rally broadens into the afternoon, this is exactly the kind of name that catches up late. A reclaim of $38.17 would invalidate the lean; a loss of $36.26 would confirm it.
(6) Why 46%: the anchor is the best I have had for this name, with a bid, ask, day range and share count that cross-check against the stated market capitalisation, though I cannot verify its timestamp. The confidence stays low because of the instrument rather than the data. This is a 7%-daily-sigma stock with no earnings, driven by headlines I cannot anticipate, heading into a triple-witching session where options mechanics rather than fundamentals often set the close. The directional signal I am relying on, underperformance on a strong tape, is real but is one day of evidence. A wide range and a modest lean at 46% is what that supports.
Muse Spark 1.1
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: MacroTrends reports latest close Sep 16 2026 $36.84 all-time high $82.09 Oct 13 2025 52-week high $84.64 129.8% above. Metamask tokenized Sep 17 $37.37 +0.45% 24h ago Sep 16 $37.20 week ago Sep 10 $38.21 -2.20% month ago Aug 18 $46.31 -19.30%. CoinGecko CAD Sep 17 Thursday CA$52.86 +0.21 +0.4% Sep 16 CA$52.07 +1.4%. Stockwatch Z:IONQ 00:12 EDT Sep 17 price $37.21 change -0.19 -0.5% volume 15.8M. Finnhub warrants IONQ.WS $27.72 open $26.99 high $27.72 low $26.99 previous close $25.23 + beta 3.359.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: Consolidation after quantum selloff. Barchart Sep 16 noted IONQ -8.47% vs QBTS -8.39% RGTI -8.60% QTUM -2.35% divergence after Q2 earnings. 1-month -19.3% per Metamask tokenized and -21.87% warrants per Finnhub 1-month. Fed hike Sep 16 12-0 to 3.75-4.00% per Cambridge adds pressure to high-beta unprofitable tech but tokenized +0.45% shows tentative bounce.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to $36.84 close Sep 16 per MacroTrends and $37.37 Sep 17 tokenized. Using day range $36.06-$37.65 per Stockwatch and $52.07-$52.86 CAD. Beta 3.35 implies daily sigma ~4% ~$1.5. Lower $35 -5% below captures fade if Warsh hawkish, upper $39 +5.9% captures bounce toward $38.21 week ago high. Symmetric because direction noisy post-Fed.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: Window Sep 17 14:23 UTC 24h covers post-FOMC digestion Sep 17-18. No IONQ earnings. Sector sympathy with QBTS RGTI and GraniteShares 2x IONL $12.415 per Finnhub will drive. Warsh remarks after hike eyed.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: Bull case: oversold bounce after -8.47% and tokenized +0.45% could extend to $39 if yields ease and QTUM recovers. Bear case: continuation toward $34 if hawkish guidance and quantum divergence persists. Invalidation: close above $39.50 or below $34.50 would negate neutral.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Confidence 52% reflects live close $36.84 Sep 16 per MacroTrends with corroborating $37.37 Sep 17 Metamask and CA$52.86 Sep 17 CoinGecko same day, but high beta and quantum-specific news add uncertainty. Labeling live because quote is Sep 16 close plus Sep 17 intraday after baseline.
Gemini 1.5 Pro
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) Data sources: I retrieved live market data showing IonQ (IONQ) trading at $39.38 as of 14:23 UTC on September 17, 2026. I also reviewed recent coverage from Webull and The Motley Fool regarding IonQ's September 8 Investor Day and updated revenue guidance.
(2) Market regime: The market is currently experiencing a broad risk-on relief rally following yesterday's FOMC interest rate decision. While the Fed hiked rates, the tech sector is strongly outperforming today as investors digest the economic outlook. As a high-beta growth stock, IonQ is catching this macroeconomic tailwind, further supported by lingering optimism from its recent SkyWater Technology acquisition.
(3) Price range justification: I project a 24-hour range of $38.00-$41.00. The stock has surged nearly 7% intraday, breaking well above yesterday's close of $36.84. Strong immediate support is now established around $38.00 to $38.30. With the current momentum, a retest of the September 8 post-Investor Day high near $40.34 to $41.00 is highly probable over the next session.
(4) Scheduled catalysts inside the window: There are no major company-specific catalysts expected within the immediate 24-hour window. Price action will largely be dictated by the continuation or fading of the broader market's post-Fed tech rally, as well as institutional repositioning.
(5) The strongest counter-argument: The rapid intraday surge of nearly 7% leaves the stock highly vulnerable to sudden profit-taking. If the broader market's post-FOMC relief rally loses steam, high-duration, speculative equities like IonQ could easily reverse course, slicing back through $38.00 and invalidating the short-term bullish bias.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: My confidence is 70%. The stock has clear upward momentum supported by both a favorable macroeconomic tape and strong fundamental updates from its recent Investor Day, though the inherent volatility of pre-profitability quantum computing stocks always warrants caution.
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