This is ForecastNest’s 1 day forecast for IONQ, created 2026-09-18 14:57 UTC. The window closed 2026-09-21 14:57 UTC, when IONQ closed at $40.25, up 5.5% from $38.14 when the forecast was made. It traded between $37.77 and $40.77 along the way (-1.0% to +6.9%).
Prediction window: Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.
Prediction time: 2026-09-18 14:57 UTC (9/18/2026, 10:57:53 AM EDT).
Valid until: 2026-09-21 14:57 UTC (9/21/2026, 10:57:53 AM EDT). Target session: 2026-09-21 (New York); During session. Lead time to expiry: 72 elapsed hours. Timing: Regular session. Based on stored prediction time, not verified model execution time.
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6 of the 6 models called a direction, and 2 of those calls were right. Each model is also asked to find the price it was forecasting from when it answers, shown as the dashed line inside its box in the picture below. All models except GPT-5.6 Sol, Muse Spark 1.1, and DeepSeek V3 found it accurately.
Below are the details.
| Model | Range | Move | Confidence | Price it found | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | $36.20–$41.80 | -6.7% to +7.7% | 54% | $38.82 | 44.8 | wrong |
| Claude Opus 5 | $34.70–$40.80 | -9.0% to +7.0% | 47% | $38.12 | 31.1 | wrong |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | $37.00–$43.00 | -8.3% to +6.6% | 50% | $40.34 | 5.4 | wrong |
| Grok 4.5 | $36.00–$41.00 | -5.8% to +7.3% | 37% | $38.20 | 78.6 | right |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | $36.50–$40.50 | -4.0% to +6.5% | 65% | $38.02 | 82.2 | right |
| DeepSeek V3 | $38.50–$42.50 | -4.6% to +5.4% | 60% | $40.34 | 14.0 | wrong |
How these models have done on IONQ over 1 day
This forecast is settled and is included in the statistics below. The remaining records are forecasts created before 2026-09-18 14:57 UTC. Only settled directional calls count toward accuracy.
| Model | Asked | Still open | No call | Called up | Called down | Right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Sonnet 5 | 1 | — | 0 | 1 · 1 right | — | 100% (1/1) |
| GPT-5.6 Sol | 11 | — | 2 | 7 · 5 right | 2 · 1 right | 67% (6/9) |
| Grok 4.5 | 11 | — | 1 | 8 · 5 right | 2 · 1 right | 60% (6/10) |
| Claude Opus 5 | 14 | — | 1 | — | 13 · 6 right | 46% (6/13) |
| DeepSeek V3 | 13 | — | 0 | 10 · 5 right | 3 · 1 right | 46% (6/13) |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | 13 | — | 3 | 7 · 3 right | 3 · 1 right | 40% (4/10) |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | 8 | — | 2 | 2 · 1 right | 4 · 1 right | 33% (2/6) |
| GPT-6 | 3 | — | 3 | — | — | — |
| Other model | 1 | — | 1 | — | — | — |
Every published IONQ forecast over 1 day before this question was asked, on 2026-09-18 14:57 UTC, plus this settled forecast. Forecasts created after this question are excluded. Results reflect the settlements available when this article is generated. A day-ahead call and a week-ahead one are counted separately — they are different questions. Only settled forecasts are graded, so open + no call + up + down adds up to asked. “No call” is a range too centred on the price to be pointing anywhere. Accuracy counts only forecasts that have settled, and the count behind it is shown beside it — a single right call is not a 100% record.
What each model said
GPT-5.6 Sol
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) What I found: The freshest timestamped IONQ trade I could verify was $38.82 at 13:52 UTC on September 18, down 3.78% from the prior close, with an intraday range of $38.74-$40.94 at that point. Investing.com separately showed IONQ around $40.34 for September 18 but without a sufficiently precise trade timestamp for this baseline, so I use the explicitly timestamped $38.82 quote. Because that quote is about 65 minutes before the requested 14:57 UTC baseline, data_access is partial rather than live. Sources: [https://www.coinglass.com/stocks/IONQ](https://www.coinglass.com/stocks/IONQ) and [https://www.investing.com/equities/dmy-technology-group-iii
(2)](https://www.investing.com/equities/dmy-technology-group-iii
%282%29) Market regime: IONQ is digesting a very strong September 17 session, when the stock gained roughly 9.8%, while the broader environment remains difficult for high-duration, unprofitable technology stocks because the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is near 5%. Technology remains one of the stronger market sectors, but quantum-computing shares have historically been especially sensitive to changes in rates and speculative risk appetite. The combination of yesterday's surge and today's early decline argues against extending the bullish move mechanically. Sources: [https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NYSE/IONQ/chart/](https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NYSE/IONQ/chart/) and [https://www.reuters.com/commentary/reuters-open-interest/global-rates-reset-ai-angst-oils-long-haul-financial-week-five-charts-2026-09-18/
(3)](https://www.reuters.com/commentary/reuters-open-interest/global-rates-reset-ai-angst-oils-long-haul-financial-week-five-charts-2026-09-18/
%283%29) Price range: I use $36.20-$41.80 for the next one-day window. The lower bound allows a deeper retracement toward the recent mid-$30s consolidation if Friday's profit-taking continues, while the upper bound allows a retest of the September 17-18 highs if quantum-sector momentum revives. IONQ traded between $38.74 and $40.94 in the freshest September 18 session data I could verify, and its 52-week range remains extremely wide at roughly $25.89-$84.64, so several dollars of movement over one session is normal for this stock. Sources: [https://www.coinglass.com/stocks/IONQ](https://www.coinglass.com/stocks/IONQ) and [https://www.investing.com/equities/dmy-technology-group-iii
(4)](https://www.investing.com/equities/dmy-technology-group-iii
%284%29) Catalysts inside the window: The most important positive sector catalyst is the U.S. Department of Energy's new Quantum Genesis Q Competition, announced September 17, with up to $215 million in planned funding to accelerate development of fault-tolerant quantum computers with at least 100 logical qubits. IonQ also entered Friday with fresh company-specific research momentum: on September 17 it reported work with Synopsys showing up to 14.6% acceleration in large engineering simulation workloads, and it received four Best Paper Awards at IEEE Quantum Week. These are substantive technical developments, although neither guarantees material near-term revenue. Sources: [https://www.energy.gov/science/articles/doe-launches-competition-accelerate-development-worlds-first-fault-tolerant](https://www.energy.gov/science/articles/doe-launches-competition-accelerate-development-worlds-first-fault-tolerant) and [https://www.ionq.com/news/ionq-demonstrates-computer-aided-engineering-workload-acceleration-by-up-to-14-6-with-quantum-technology
(5)](https://www.ionq.com/news/ionq-demonstrates-computer-aided-engineering-workload-acceleration-by-up-to-14-6-with-quantum-technology
%285%29) Strongest counter-argument: The bullish case is that DOE funding momentum, multiple IEEE research awards and commercially oriented collaborations with Synopsys, NVIDIA and Oak Ridge National Laboratory create enough fresh interest for Friday's pullback to be temporary. The bearish case is that the September 17 rally already discounted much of that enthusiasm and that a company with a market capitalization above $15 billion and continuing losses is particularly vulnerable when Treasury yields are near 5%. A sustained recovery through roughly $40.50-$41.00 would weaken the immediate bearish interpretation, while a break below roughly $38 and then $36.50 would indicate that post-news profit-taking is becoming a larger retracement. Sources: [https://www.ionq.com/news](https://www.ionq.com/news) and [https://www.investing.com/equities/dmy-technology-group-iii
(6)](https://www.investing.com/equities/dmy-technology-group-iii
%286%29) Confidence: 54% reflects conflicting short- and medium-term signals. Today's verified price action is negative after a large prior-session gain, which supports MILD BEARISH over the next hour, but unusually strong quantum-sector policy support and IonQ's recent technical announcements argue against a confident one-day bearish call. I therefore keep the 1-day signal NEUTRAL while assigning MILD BULLISH to 7-day and 30-day horizons, with the main limitation being that my freshest timestamped trade predates the requested baseline by roughly one hour.
Claude Opus 5
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) What I found, and where: Robinhood reports that on 2026-09-18 IONQ moved within a range of $37.99 to $40.94 and currently trades at $38.12, which is 0.4% above the session low and 6.9% below the session peak, with a market capitalisation of $15.45 billion, a P/E of -8.87, and volume of 6.29 million against a 19.54 million average (robinhood.com/us/en/stocks/IONQ/). Morningstar gives Wednesday's close at $36.84 and a Thursday range of $38.09 to $40.00, so the stock rallied hard on Thursday and has extended and then reversed today (morningstar.com/stocks/xnys/ionq/quote). The 52-week range is $25.89 to $84.64. TradingView places the 200-day EMA near $45.18 and lists next earnings on 11 November 2026, with last-quarter revenue of $80.05 million against $66.47 million estimated. I anchor at $38.12; I cannot confirm the exact timestamp on that quote, so data_access is 'partial'.
(2) Market regime: a failed breakout in progress. The intraday shape is the dominant fact here. IONQ has travelled from $36.84 on Wednesday to $40.94 today, then given back essentially the entire advance within the session to sit barely above its own low. Round trips of that kind, where a stock prints the day's high early and closes near the bottom of the range, are a distribution signature rather than consolidation, and it is occurring while the broad tape is firm and Alphabet is up nearly 2%. The news flow has actually improved: IonQ cleared the final regulatory hurdle to close the SkyWater Technology acquisition, the Department of Energy is putting up to $215 million behind error-corrected quantum computing, and NEC's exit from quantum hardware removes a competitor. That good news being sold is what makes the reversal informative rather than random. Context for the medium term: the stock is down roughly 34% over three months and sits well below its 200-day EMA.
(3) Price range: anchored at $38.12 with a downside tilt. Today's realised range of $37.99 to $40.94 already spans 7.8% of the low, which is ordinary for this name. I am using a daily sigma near 7%, giving about -9% to +7%, or $34.70 to $40.80. The levels: $37.99 is today's floor with $36.84 Wednesday's close beneath it, and below that the $35.11 low bought decisively on 14 September marks where buyers last stepped in with conviction. Overhead, $40.94 has now failed and $40.00 capped Thursday, making the $40 area a clear ceiling that has rejected two attempts in two sessions. The extra room below reflects that a failed breakout usually resolves toward the prior base rather than sideways.
(4) Catalysts inside the window: no scheduled company events. Earnings are 11 November, far outside a window that effectively closes with Friday's 16:00 ET bell. The structural feature is September triple witching, with more than $1 trillion of notional expiring across equity options, index options and index futures; IONQ carries an active options market and has previously drawn flagged unusual call volume, so pinning and dealer hedging can set the close independent of fundamentals. Otherwise this sector moves on unscheduled headlines, and with DOE funding decisions and post-NEC consolidation in play, a double-digit move on news is always possible in either direction.
(5) Strongest counter-argument: a good deal of the decline is already inside my anchor, since the stock has fallen 6.9% from its high before this window opened, so I am forecasting continuation rather than the reversal itself. Short interest in this name has historically run in the mid-teens to low-twenties as a percentage of float, which makes snapbacks violent and makes leaning short into weakness uncomfortable. The fundamental news this week was genuinely positive, with the SkyWater clearance removing execution uncertainty around raised 2026 guidance of $450 million to $460 million, and last quarter's revenue beat consensus by roughly 20%. A reclaim of $40 would invalidate the lean; a loss of $37.99 would confirm it.
(6) Why 47%: the anchor is the strongest I have had for this name, a named intraday quote with a session range and a market capitalisation that cross-checks, and the intraday reversal is a real signal rather than an inference. What holds the confidence down is the instrument and the day. This is a 7%-daily-sigma stock with no earnings, a heavily shorted float, and headline sensitivity I cannot anticipate, heading into a triple-witching close where options mechanics frequently override price discovery. I am also updating my 30-day read from bearish to neutral, because the SkyWater clearance and the DOE programme are material changes rather than noise, and I would rather revise than defend a stale view.
Muse Spark 1.1
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: FinancialContent reports IONQ current $40.34 last trade Sep 17 2026 07:00 PM ET. MarketBeat Sep 15 close $37.07 open $37.54 high $38.17 low $36.26 vol 12.87M cap $14.12B and Sep 14 $37.54 +2.08% high $38.56 low $35.00 vol 18.19M cap $14.30B. Barchart reports IONQ $41.06 -8.47% with QBTS $18.68 -8.39% IBM $231.04 -1.97% Sep 18, and $37.64 -0.37% $38.04 -3.23%. Stockopedia reports $36.75 delayed 15 min -21.89% 365 days underperform S&P -32.83%. Stockwatch reports IONQ $39.30 +2.45 vol 5,788 33,407 day 38.32-39.40 high 84.64 low 25.90. Webull last week gain 6.98% 43.24 to 46.26 high 47.94 low 42.18 vol 93.9M and loss -7.78% 49.88 to 46.00 high 55.60 low 45.76 vol 74M.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: Quantum basket selling Sep 18 -8.5% IONQ RGTI -8.60% QBTS -8.39% QTUM -2.35% per Barchart, after Q2 divergence revenue per MarketBeat Aug 19. Fed hike Sep 16 12-0 to 3.75-4.00% hurts high-beta quantum. IONQ $40.34 Sep 17 vs $36.75 Stockopedia now +9% rebound but volatile. Regime neutral with bearish tilt near-term.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to $40.34 Sep 17 close. Using day $38.32-$39.40 Stockwatch and $36.26-$38.17 Sep 15 and $41.06 Barchart high. Beta high ~2.5 daily ~5% ~$2. Lower $37 near $37.07 Sep 15 close and $36.75 Stockopedia -8.2% if quantum selloff continues, upper $43 near $43.24-$47.94 last week high +6.5% if bounce. Slight downside skew due to -8.47% basket drop.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: Window Sep 18 14:57 UTC 24h covers quad witching. No IONQ earnings but board additions support next phases per Barchart. Quantum sector ETF flows and D-Wave bookings momentum per Barchart.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: Bull case: board additions and backlog growth could squeeze to $43 toward $47.94 high if BTC $80k risk-on. Bear case: continued quantum divergence and 2-year 4.348% could push to $37 toward $36.26 low. Invalidation: close below $35 or above $45 would negate neutral.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Confidence 50% reflects live $40.34 Sep 17 7pm ET after baseline with $39.30 Stockwatch real-time and $37.07-$37.54 MarketBeat same week but conflicting $41.06 -8.47% and $36.75 delayed prints, high vol. Labeling live because $40.34 dated Sep 17 7pm and $39.30 intraday Sep 18 after window start.
Grok 4.5
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Live quotes from Stocknear ($38.08), TradeSmith ($38.08), StockAnalysis ($38.10), MarketWatch ($38.13) and CoinGlass ($39.00) show IONQ trading near $38-$39 as of mid-morning September 18 2026 EDT, down roughly 5-5.6% from the prior close of $40.34. Day range so far is approximately $37.99-$40.94 after a strong +9.50% rebound session on September 17.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: IONQ remains a high-volatility quantum computing name trading well below its 52-week high of $84.64 but above the March 2026 low near $25.89. Recent action shows a multi-day bounce within a broader corrective phase, with sharp swings typical of speculative tech names.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to the observed ~$38.20 quote. Realized volatility near 93% annualized and recent daily ranges of $2-$4 support a one-day envelope of roughly ±5-7% around the current level, producing the $36-$41 band. The range is modestly skewed lower to reflect the intraday pullback while allowing room for a rebound toward the prior close.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: No major company-specific catalysts for the remaining session; residual flows tied to quantum computing sentiment and broader tech sector reaction remain the primary near-term drivers. Next earnings are estimated for early November.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: A decisive break above the recent $40-$41 resistance cluster on expanding volume would invalidate the mild short-term bias and open a retest of the $42-$44 area. Conversely, a sustained push below $37 would strengthen the pullback case beyond the neutral 1-day stance.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Confidence is low at 37% because the one-day horizon for a high-beta speculative stock is dominated by noise, quote dispersion is present across sources, and no high-conviction catalyst is present to override the mixed technical recovery picture.
Gemini 1.5 Pro
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) Data sources: I retrieved live market data showing IonQ Inc. (IONQ) trading at $38.02 as of 10:57 AM EDT on September 18, 2026, down from its previous close of $40.34.
(2) Market regime: The stock is currently undergoing a localized retracement after sharply surging earlier in the week following upbeat full-year revenue guidance and post-FOMC tech sector rotation. High-beta quantum computing equities remain exceptionally sensitive to short-term profit-taking after sharp rallies.
(3) Price range justification: I project a 24-hour range of $36.50-$40.50. Immediate intraday support sits near the $36.50 to $37.00 region, which aligns with prior consolidation levels, while overhead resistance clusters near the $40.30 to $40.50 mark following yesterday's highs.
(4) Scheduled catalysts inside the window: Price action over the next 24 hours will be dictated by standard Friday options expiration flows, late-week institutional rebalancing, and overall sentiment trends across speculative technology names.
(5) The strongest counter-argument: The primary risk to a neutral-to-soft consolidation is that speculative retail and institutional dip-buyers could aggressively step in around the $38 level, treating the morning pullback as a buying opportunity and sparking a rapid relief bounce back toward $40.50.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: My confidence is 65%. While IONQ's longer-term fundamental trajectory benefits from upwardly revised revenue forecasts, trading a high-beta quantum stock through a volatile options expiration session introduces significant intraday noise and uncertainty.
DeepSeek V3
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) Price discovery: I found IONQ trading at $40.34 at the September 17 close, up 9.50% on the session, based on Yahoo Finance and StockAnalysis.com. The day's range was $38.11-$40.78, with an intraday high of $40.78. The overnight session on the Blue Ocean ATS showed $40.05, down 0.72%, and Robinhood's pre-market quote showed $40.49, up 0.37%. The market cap is approximately $16.34 billion, and the 52-week range is $25.89-$84.64.
(2) Market regime: IONQ is in a sharp short-term recovery after a prolonged decline from its 52-week high. The stock surged 9.50% on September 17 following two research breakthroughs: one with Synopsys demonstrating up to 14.6% acceleration of computer-aided engineering workloads, and another with NVIDIA, ORNL, and the University of Tennessee showing an AI method that reduces quantum optimization trade-offs. The quantum computing sector is also benefiting from $300 million in U.S. CHIPS Act funding finalized on September 8, which catalyzed a broad rally across pure-play quantum names. However, IONQ remains well below its 52-week high of $84.64, and sentiment is still fragile.
(3) Price range: I used the September 17 intraday high of $40.78 and the pre-market level of $40.49 as the immediate anchors. The $40 level has shifted from resistance to support, while $42-$43 is the next psychological hurdle based on recent trading ranges. On the downside, $38-$38.50 is the first support shelf, with deeper support at $36.50 (prior close) and $35. I expect a one-day range of $38.50-$42.50, with volatility elevated due to the stock's high beta (3.30) and recent news momentum.
(4) Catalysts: The primary catalyst inside the window is the continuation of the quantum computing sector rally following the $300 million CHIPS Act funding and IONQ's recent research announcements with Synopsys and NVIDIA. There are no scheduled earnings or major company-specific events in the next 24 hours; the next earnings date is November 4, 2026. Quadruple witching on September 18 may introduce mechanical flows and elevated volume, but IONQ's options activity is less dominant than large-cap names.
(5) Counter-argument: The strongest counter-argument is that IONQ's rally is driven by speculative momentum rather than sustained fundamentals. The company reported a Q2 2026 adjusted loss of $0.33 per share, wider than the year-ago loss of $0.08, and GAAP operating expenses totaled $417.3 million, far exceeding revenue of $80.1 million. The $300 million government funding went to D-Wave, Rigetti, and Quantinuum, not IONQ directly. If the sector rally fades or profit-taking emerges after the 9.50% surge, IONQ could quickly retrace toward $38 or lower. A sustained break below $38 would invalidate the short-term bullish bias.
(6) Confidence: I set confidence at 60% because the short-term direction is genuinely two-sided. The research breakthroughs, sector funding momentum, and strong analyst consensus (Strong Buy, $69.25 target) support a constructive view, but the stock's high beta, lack of profitability, and the speculative nature of the quantum theme introduce significant downside risk. The one-day forecast is closer to a coin flip with a slight upward bias.
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