This is ForecastNest’s 1 day forecast for SOXL, created 2026-09-18 14:55 UTC. The window closed 2026-09-21 14:55 UTC, when SOXL closed at $136.29, up 15.0% from $118.47 when the forecast was made. It traded between $116.68 and $137.12 along the way (-1.5% to +15.7%).
Prediction window: Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.
Prediction time: 2026-09-18 14:55 UTC (9/18/2026, 10:55:00 AM EDT).
Valid until: 2026-09-21 14:55 UTC (9/21/2026, 10:55:00 AM EDT). Target session: 2026-09-21 (New York); During session. Lead time to expiry: 72 elapsed hours. Timing: Regular session. Based on stored prediction time, not verified model execution time.
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5 of the 6 models called a direction, and 2 of those calls were right. Each model is also asked to find the price it was forecasting from when it answers, shown as the dashed line inside its box in the picture below. All models except Claude Opus 5 and DeepSeek V3 found it accurately.
Below are the details.
| Model | Range | Move | Confidence | Price it found | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | $111.50–$126.50 | -6.0% to +6.7% | 57% | $118.56 | 73.4 | right |
| Claude Opus 5 | $105.00–$125.90 | -9.5% to +8.5% | 40% | $116.00 | 5.0 | wrong |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | $112.00–$125.00 | -5.5% to +5.4% | 54% | $118.56 | 44.3 | no call |
| Grok 4.5 | $112.00–$125.00 | -5.6% to +5.3% | 38% | $118.70 | 10.3 | wrong |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | $112.00–$126.00 | -5.5% to +6.3% | 60% | $118.54 | 73.2 | right |
| DeepSeek V3 | $135.50–$145.50 | -3.4% to +3.7% | 60% | $140.25 | 4.4 | wrong |
How these models have done on SOXL over 1 day
This forecast is settled and is included in the statistics below. The remaining records are forecasts created before 2026-09-18 14:55 UTC. Only settled directional calls count toward accuracy.
| Model | Asked | Still open | No call | Called up | Called down | Right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gemini 1.5 Pro (Gemini — Flash) | 1 | — | 0 | 1 · 1 right | — | 100% (1/1) |
| Claude Sonnet 5 | 1 | — | 0 | 1 · 1 right | — | 100% (1/1) |
| Grok 4.5 | 10 | — | 0 | 7 · 6 right | 3 · 0 right | 60% (6/10) |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro (Gemini — Pro) | 13 | — | 2 | 5 · 5 right | 6 · 1 right | 55% (6/11) |
| DeepSeek V3 | 13 | — | 1 | 7 · 5 right | 5 · 1 right | 50% (6/12) |
| GPT-5.6 Sol | 10 | — | 2 | 4 · 3 right | 4 · 1 right | 50% (4/8) |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | 6 | — | 1 | 1 · 1 right | 4 · 0 right | 20% (1/5) |
| Claude Opus 5 | 12 | — | 1 | — | 11 · 1 right | 9% (1/11) |
| GPT-6 | 3 | — | 0 | — | 3 · 0 right | 0% (0/3) |
| GPT-5.6 Luna | 1 | — | 0 | — | 1 · 0 right | 0% (0/1) |
Every published SOXL forecast over 1 day before this question was asked, on 2026-09-18 14:55 UTC, plus this settled forecast. Forecasts created after this question are excluded. Results reflect the settlements available when this article is generated. A day-ahead call and a week-ahead one are counted separately — they are different questions. Only settled forecasts are graded, so open + no call + up + down adds up to asked. “No call” is a range too centred on the price to be pointing anywhere. Accuracy counts only forecasts that have settled, and the count behind it is shown beside it — a single right call is not a 100% record.
What each model said
GPT-5.6 Sol
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) What I found: The freshest SOXL regular-session quote I could verify was $118.56 at 9:53 AM EDT on September 18, up 3.26% from the September 17 close of $114.82. The session range at that timestamp was $116.86-$119.71. Because this quote predates the requested 14:55 UTC baseline by about one hour and I could not verify a newer trade, I classify data_access as partial rather than live. Sources: [https://raymondjames.websol.barchart.com/?1_selected=etfQuote&module=etfDetail®ion=US&symbol=SOXL](https://raymondjames.websol.barchart.com/?1_selected=etfQuote&module=etfDetail®ion=US&symbol=SOXL) and [https://stockanalysis.com/etf/soxl/history/
(2)](https://stockanalysis.com/etf/soxl/history/
%282%29) Market regime: Semiconductor shares are showing notable relative strength even while the broader U.S. market is under pressure from rising Treasury yields. MarketWatch reported the PHLX Semiconductor Index up about 1.3% on September 18, with Broadcom, Lam Research, Coherent and Lumentum among the stronger technology names, while Reuters reported the S&P 500 and Nasdaq slipping as the 10-year Treasury yield approached 5%. That divergence gives SOXL a short-term positive sector impulse, but the macro environment remains restrictive. Sources: [https://www.marketwatch.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-s-p-500-nasdaq-oil-prices-rise-saudi-arabia-reportedly-up-capacity-pipeline/card/tech-is-a-bright-spot-that-s-helping-support-the-broader-market-Op02Bp3bysBm0F2GjjKg](https://www.marketwatch.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-s-p-500-nasdaq-oil-prices-rise-saudi-arabia-reportedly-up-capacity-pipeline/card/tech-is-a-bright-spot-that-s-helping-support-the-broader-market-Op02Bp3bysBm0F2GjjKg) and [https://www.reuters.com/business/nasdaq-futures-lead-wall-st-gains-oil-retreat-eases-inflation-worries-2026-09-18/
(3)](https://www.reuters.com/business/nasdaq-futures-lead-wall-st-gains-oil-retreat-eases-inflation-worries-2026-09-18/
%283%29) Price range: I use $111.50-$126.50 for the next one-trading-day window. SOXL is a 3x daily leveraged semiconductor ETF, so ordinary semiconductor-index moves can create much larger percentage swings in the fund. Recent sessions demonstrate the scale: SOXL fell 16.98% on September 14, then gained 1.18%, 1.61% and 10.44% over the next three sessions. The upper bound allows continuation toward the September 8-11 region around $123-$125 and a modest overshoot, while the lower bound allows a substantial retracement of the rebound without assuming another full September 14-style shock. Source: [https://stockanalysis.com/etf/soxl/history/
(4)](https://stockanalysis.com/etf/soxl/history/
%284%29) Catalysts inside the window: The strongest positive catalyst is continued evidence that AI-related semiconductor demand remains robust. Reuters reported that GlobalFoundries and Marvell expanded production capacity for chips used in high-speed AI data-center optical connections, while ASML said demand has left its advanced EUV equipment effectively sold out through 2027. Memory markets also remain supply constrained, with Reuters reporting shortages expected to persist through 2027. Offsetting that demand evidence, Huawei says its own AI-chip systems are supply constrained as it increases competition with Nvidia in China. Sources: [https://www.reuters.com/business/globalfoundries-marvell-expand-chip-capacity-deal-ai-data-center-connectivity-2026-09-17/](https://www.reuters.com/business/globalfoundries-marvell-expand-chip-capacity-deal-ai-data-center-connectivity-2026-09-17/), [https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/asml-extends-chipmaking-dominance-customers-embrace-high-na-2026-09-14/](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/asml-extends-chipmaking-dominance-customers-embrace-high-na-2026-09-14/), [https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/smaller-phone-laptop-makers-dig-years-memory-scarcity-2026-09-16/](https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/smaller-phone-laptop-makers-dig-years-memory-scarcity-2026-09-16/) and [https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/chinas-huawei-launch-two-new-ai-chips-2027-2026-09-17/
(5)](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/chinas-huawei-launch-two-new-ai-chips-2027-2026-09-17/
%285%29) Strongest counter-argument: The bearish case is that SOXL has already rebounded roughly 17% from its September 14 close in only a few sessions, including a 10.44% jump on September 17, leaving it vulnerable to profit-taking. Reuters reported the 10-year Treasury yield near 4.996% on September 18, and higher discount rates can rapidly reverse high-beta semiconductor momentum. A move back below roughly $114-$115 would suggest the rebound is losing momentum, whereas sustained strength above approximately $120-$122 would indicate that the sector is reclaiming more of the September 14 breakdown. Sources: [https://www.reuters.com/business/nasdaq-futures-lead-wall-st-gains-oil-retreat-eases-inflation-worries-2026-09-18/](https://www.reuters.com/business/nasdaq-futures-lead-wall-st-gains-oil-retreat-eases-inflation-worries-2026-09-18/) and [https://stockanalysis.com/etf/soxl/history/
(6)](https://stockanalysis.com/etf/soxl/history/
%286%29) Confidence: 57% reflects a modest positive edge with unusually high path uncertainty. Semiconductor relative strength, improving AI-infrastructure sentiment and continuing memory and networking demand support MILD BULLISH through one day. Confidence remains limited because SOXL's 3x daily leverage magnifies reversals, Treasury yields are near 5%, the broad market is weak, and my freshest verified SOXL quote is roughly one hour older than the requested baseline.
Claude Opus 5
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) What I found, and where, and the anchor is the weak point again: Investing.com still reports SOXL at 103.97 with an identical previous close, which is Wednesday's level carried forward rather than a live print, and Direxion's own product page states NAV and market price information as of 16 September (investing.com/etfs/direxion-dly-semiconductor-bull-3x, direxion.com/product/daily-semiconductor-bull-bear-3x-etfs). So no source gives me a clean Thursday close. I derive one: Thursday was a powerful semiconductor session, with AMD up 6.20%, Micron up 5.32%, Broadcom up 2.54% and Nvidia up 2.59% per Yahoo's session data, implying an index gain near 3.5% and roughly 10.5% on a 3x fund, taking $103.97 to about $115. TradingView independently shows SOXL at 119.03 with a 24-hour gain of 10.44% and NAV at 114.87, which corroborates that magnitude (tradingview.com/symbols/AMEX-SOXL/). I report $116.00 as an estimate sitting between those readings; a $114 to $119 band is equally defensible, which is why data_access is 'partial'.
(2) Market regime: a violent four-session recovery inside a structurally decaying instrument. SOXL has travelled from $101.13 on 14 September, after Monday's 17% collapse on the AI-pacing essay, through a $98.62 to $106.68 range on Tuesday, a $103.97 close Wednesday, and roughly $115 Thursday, which is about 15% in four sessions. The drivers are real: CNBC reported CEO Jensen Huang seeing chip sales doubling next year, memory names rallied hard on shortage pricing, crude has fallen below $100 for the first time in weeks at $97.80, and Treasury yields eased after the Fed's hike. Working the other way is the fund's own mechanics, which this week illustrates perfectly: TradingView shows SOXL down 14.44% over the past month and down 4.88% over five days even after Thursday's surge, because a 3x daily reset compounds against the holder in a whipsaw tape regardless of where the index finishes.
(3) Price range: anchored at $116.00 and placed close to symmetric with a slight downward lean. This week's realised moves justify a very wide band: -17.0% Monday, an 8% intraday span Tuesday, roughly +10.5% Thursday. I am using a daily sigma near 8.5%, giving about -9.5% to +8.5%, or $105.00 to $125.90. The reference marks below are Wednesday's $103.97 close and Tuesday's $98.62 low; above, Friday 11 September's $121.82 is the level a full round trip would reach. The asymmetry is mechanical rather than directional, reflecting the daily-reset drag rather than a view that semiconductors fall.
(4) Catalysts inside the window: no semiconductor-specific events. Micron's fiscal fourth-quarter report falls in the week of 23 September, outside a window that effectively closes with Friday's 16:00 ET bell. The dominant feature is mechanical: September triple witching, with more than $1 trillion of notional in equity options, index options and index futures expiring simultaneously, arriving two days after the Fed and one day after the Bank of Japan raised its call rate to 1.25%. Barchart has logged SOXL implied volatility as high as 123%, so this is among the most heavily optioned leveraged ETFs in the market and dealer hedging into the final hour can dominate ordinary price discovery.
(5) Strongest counter-argument, cutting both ways, which is why I abstain on direction: the bullish case is that a CEO demand statement plus falling oil plus easing yields is a coherent, durable driver, and a 3x fund extends that hard, which is exactly what Thursday demonstrated. The bearish case is that roughly 15% of recovery already sits inside my anchor, so upside now requires fresh continuation rather than the rebound itself, and buying a leveraged product into an expiry after a four-day run is the worst moment on the calendar to do it. A push through $126 would say the trend has more in it; a slide back under $104 would say the rebound is done.
(6) Why 40%: the lowest number I have assigned to anything this week, and the anchor is the whole reason. It rests on a Wednesday close plus an applied index move, cross-checked against a TradingView reading that differs by about $3 from my estimate and by $4 from its own stated NAV. On a fund with roughly 8.5% daily sigma and a 3x daily reset that makes the intraday path matter as much as the endpoint, that starting uncertainty compounds. Add a triple-witching close set by expiring open interest rather than by fundamentals, and an explicit abstention on direction with a very wide band is the only honest answer.
Muse Spark 1.1
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Finnhub reports SOXL Current $118.56 Open $117.03 High $119.7088 Low $116.86 Previous Close $114.82 Change +3.74 +3.2573% Sep 18. 5-day +11.07% 1-month -18.21% 6-month +133.75% YTD +182.08% 1-year +304.64% 10-year +4352% beta 5.93. Barchart shows SOXL $140.25 +5.99% with SOXX $543.27 +2.02% and MRVL $218.72 +3.89% INTC $101.65 +1.84% same day. Webull last week $142.80 to $144.95 high $154.12 low $130 vol 244M. Motley Fool notes SOXL down 15% through 12:10 when holdings red.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: Strong rebound post-hike. SOXL +3.25% Sep 18 vs NVDA flat $219.19 and MSFT $491.54 -1.25%. Beta 5.93 triple semis. 5-day +11% shows momentum returning after -18% month. BTC $80,600 +4.73% and SPY $762.57 +1.1% Sep 17 support risk-on. Semis leading as yields stabilize.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to $118.56 live Sep 18. Using day range $116.86-$119.70 and previous close $114.82. Beta 5.93 implies daily ~7% ~$8. Lower $112 -5.5% toward $114.82 previous and $104.36 Motley Fool low if profit taking, upper $125 +5.4% toward $125.87 FinancialContent and $140.25 Barchart captures extension. Slight upside skew due to +3.25% momentum and +11% 5-day.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: Window Sep 18 14:55 UTC 24h covers quad witching close. No SOXL-specific earnings but Micron MU $993.5 +1.6% Sep 18 per Finnhub and NVDA news drive. SOXS bear $43.64 per OKX Sep 18 15:10 UTC+8 counterpart.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: Bear case: hawkish Warsh guiding more hikes 2-year 4.348% could push SOXL back to $114.82 or $112 if semis fade triple. Bull case: dovish hold and MU strength could squeeze to $125. Invalidation: close below $110 or above $128 would negate mild bullish.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Confidence 54% reflects live price $118.56 dated Sep 18 after baseline with high $119.70 low $116.86 open $117.03 same day and corroborating Barchart $140.25 +5.99% same day, but 3x leverage noisy. Labeling live because quote is same-day after window start.
Grok 4.5
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Live quotes from ChartExchange ($118.92), ETF.com ($118.84), MarketWatch ($118.71), FT ($118.53) and Investing.com ($118.70) show SOXL trading near $118-$119 as of mid-morning September 18 2026 EDT, up roughly 3.3-3.5% from the prior close of $114.82. Day range so far is approximately $116.86-$119.71 after a strong +10.44% rebound session on September 17.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: SOXL remains a high-volatility 3x leveraged semiconductor ETF trading well below its 52-week high of $302 but sharply recovered from mid-September lows near $100-$104. Recent action shows a multi-day bounce within a broader corrective phase after the June peak, driven by semiconductor sector swings.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to the observed ~$118.70 quote. As a 3x product, daily moves frequently exceed 5-10%; recent ranges of $3-$8 and elevated realized volatility support a one-day envelope of roughly ±5-6% around the current level, producing the $112-$125 band. The range is modestly skewed higher to reflect the ongoing rebound while allowing room for a fade of the morning gains.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: No major semiconductor-specific catalysts for the remaining session; residual flows tied to AI chip demand and broader market reaction to yields remain the primary near-term drivers. Leverage decay and daily rebalancing effects amplify any sector moves.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: A decisive break below the recent $116-$117 support cluster on rising volume would invalidate the mild short-term bias and open a retest of the $110-$112 area. Conversely, a sustained push through $120-$122 would strengthen the rebound case beyond the mild bullish stance.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Confidence is low at 38% because the one-day horizon for a 3x leveraged ETF is dominated by noise and compounding effects, quote dispersion is present, and no high-conviction catalyst is present to override the mixed technical recovery picture.
Gemini 1.5 Pro
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) Data sources: I retrieved live market data showing SOXL trading at $118.54 as of 10:55 AM EDT on September 18, 2026, based on NYSE ARCA intraday feeds.
(2) Market regime: The semiconductor sector is currently experiencing a mild risk-on recovery following earlier post-FOMC volatility. While macroeconomic rate concerns persist, strong underlying momentum in artificial intelligence chip demand continues to attract dip-buyers to high-beta leveraged technology ETFs.
(3) Price range justification: I project a 24-hour range of $112.00-$126.00. Given SOXL's 3x leverage factor, intraday swings are magnified; immediate support rests near the $112.00 mark, while upside resistance is projected around $126.00 should chip stocks extend their gains into the close.
(4) Scheduled catalysts inside the window: Price action over the next 24 hours will be dictated by standard Friday options expiration dynamics, semiconductor sector headline flow, and late-week portfolio repositioning by institutional investors.
(5) The strongest counter-argument: The primary risk to this mild bullish stance is that leveraged ETFs suffer heavily from decay and sudden sentiment reversals. If afternoon profit-taking accelerates across mega-cap tech, SOXL could experience a sharp downward cascade below its $112 support level.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: My confidence is 60%. While the morning price action shows constructive upward momentum, trading a triple-leveraged ETF through a Friday options expiration window introduces extreme volatility and binary risk.
DeepSeek V3
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) Price discovery: I found SOXL trading at $140.25 as of 18:44 ET on September 18, a gain of 5.99% from the prior close of $132.33, based on a live quote from Longbridge (web.lbkrs.com). The intraday range was $131.56-$143.92. An earlier Longport quote showed $144.95 at 19:59 ET, while Investing.com showed a close of $115.76, reflecting stale data. The prior session (Sept 17) close was $114.73, up 10.35%, per fnnews.com, and $103.97 per WEEX, indicating inconsistency across sources; I anchor to the Longbridge quote as the most recent regular-session print.
(2) Market regime: The semiconductor sector is in a sharp two-day recovery rally after a Fed rate hike scare and an AI-spending pullback. NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang's comments on September 17 that chip sales could double next year lifted the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) by 3.14%, with AMD up 6.36%, Intel up 7.67%, and Micron up 5.50%. SOXL, as a 3x leveraged ETF, amplifies these moves. However, today is quadruple witching, with roughly $7 trillion in options expiring, which can create violent mechanical flows and price pinning.
(3) Price range: I used the intraday low of $131.56 and the high of $143.92 as the structural anchors. The $140 level has transitioned from resistance to support, while $145-$148 is the next major upside hurdle per recent technical notes. On the downside, $135-$138 is the first support shelf, with deeper support at $130. Given the leverage and expiration noise, I expect a one-day range of $135.50-$145.50.
(4) Catalysts: The primary scheduled event is quadruple witching, which expires stock index futures, stock index options, individual stock options, and single stock futures simultaneously. This can produce heavy volume, temporary price pinning around large strikes, and sharp reversals. No other major company-specific catalysts are inside the window.
(5) Counter-argument: The strongest counter-argument is that SOXL has already run roughly 22% in two sessions, and the 3x leverage cuts both ways. If expiration flows turn negative and the semiconductor rally stalls, SOXL could give back a large portion of its gains quickly. A sustained break below $135 would invalidate the short-term bullish bias.
(6) Confidence: I set confidence at 60% because the direction is genuinely two-sided. The sector momentum and NVIDIA's bullish commentary support a constructive view, but quadruple witching introduces mechanical noise that can overwhelm fundamentals, and the ETF is at resistance rather than in a clear trend. The one-day forecast is closer to a coin flip than a high-conviction call.
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