This is ForecastNest’s 1 day forecast for IONQ, created 2026-09-28 14:37 UTC. The window closed 2026-09-29 14:37 UTC, when IONQ closed at $44.13, down 6.0% from $46.97 when the forecast was made. It traded between $43.86 and $47.43 along the way (-6.6% to +1.0%).
Prediction window: Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.
Prediction time: 2026-09-28 14:37 UTC (9/28/2026, 10:37:45 AM EDT).
Valid until: 2026-09-29 14:37 UTC (9/29/2026, 10:37:45 AM EDT). Target session: 2026-09-29 (New York); During session. Lead time to expiry: 24 elapsed hours. Timing: Regular session. Based on stored prediction time, not verified model execution time.
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6 of the 6 models called a direction, and 0 of those calls were right. Each model is also asked to find the price it was forecasting from when it answers, shown as the dashed line inside its box in the picture below. None of the models found it accurately.
Below are the details.
| Model | Range | Move | Confidence | Price it found | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Perplexity | $43.80–$47.90 | -3.3% to +5.7% | 60% | $45.30 | 9.1 | wrong |
| Claude Opus 5.5 | $44.40–$51.20 | -6.7% to +7.6% | 32% | $47.59 | 8.0 | wrong |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | $44.00–$49.00 | -4.0% to +6.9% | 64% | $45.82 | 13.2 | wrong |
| Grok 4.5 | $43.50–$49.00 | -5.4% to +6.6% | 45% | $45.98 | 14.7 | wrong |
| DeepSeek | $43.50–$48.00 | -4.4% to +5.5% | 55% | $45.48 | 9.8 | wrong |
| Gemini 3 Pro | $44.50–$48.50 | -3.4% to +5.3% | 58% | $46.07 | 6.2 | wrong |
How these models have done on IONQ over 1 day
This forecast is settled and is included in the statistics below. The remaining records are forecasts created before 2026-09-28 14:37 UTC. Only settled directional calls count toward accuracy.
| Model | Asked | Still open | No call | Called up | Called down | Right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grok 4.5 | 9 | — | 1 | 7 · 4 right | 1 · 1 right | 63% (5/8) |
| Gemini 3 Pro | 12 | — | 2 | 7 · 4 right | 3 · 2 right | 60% (6/10) |
| Claude Opus 5.5 | 12 | — | 1 | 4 · 2 right | 7 · 4 right | 55% (6/11) |
| GPT-5.6 Sol | 8 | — | 0 | 7 · 3 right | 1 · 1 right | 50% (4/8) |
| DeepSeek | 10 | — | 0 | 8 · 3 right | 2 · 1 right | 40% (4/10) |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | 12 | — | 1 | 4 · 1 right | 7 · 2 right | 27% (3/11) |
| Perplexity | 2 | — | 0 | 1 · 0 right | 1 · 0 right | 0% (0/2) |
| GPT-6 | 3 | — | 3 | — | — | — |
| Claude Sonnet 4.5 | 1 | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Other model | 0 | — | 0 | — | — | — |
Every published IONQ forecast over 1 day before this question was asked, on 2026-09-28 14:37 UTC, plus this settled forecast. Forecasts created after this question are excluded. Results reflect the settlements available when this article is generated. A day-ahead call and a week-ahead one are counted separately — they are different questions. Only settled forecasts are graded, so open + no call + up + down adds up to asked. “No call” is a range too centred on the price to be pointing anywhere. Accuracy counts only forecasts that have settled, and the count behind it is shown beside it — a single right call is not a 100% record.
What each model said
Perplexity
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) Market regime: IonQ is trading near $45.30 as of September 28, 2026, up modestly from the prior close ($45.48 on September 25) after a volatile week driven by major catalysts. The stock surged 11-12% on September 23 following announcements of (a) a first-of-its-kind quantum computing deployment inside NVIDIA's Accelerated Quantum Research Center (NVAQC) and (b) a breakthrough in real-time quantum error correction (end-to-end decoder operating on standard CPU hardware, simulating 408 logical qubits). However, shares gave back ~2/3 of the initial gain, closing up only 4.42% on the day, reflecting profit-taking and skepticism about near-term commercialization. Bank of America initiated coverage with a Buy rating and $60 projected level on September 28, citing M&A-driven quantum roadmap gains and SkyWater foundry benefits, but shares fell 0.8% in pre-market trading. [Sources: Yahoo Finance, CNBC, SeekingAlpha, Techi, IonQ IR]
(2) Technical synthesis: On the 1-hour chart, IONQ is consolidating near $45.30 with mild bullish bias, suggesting a near-term test of resistance at $46-$47. The 4-hour and daily charts show a bullish structure: price is above key moving averages and has broken out of a multi-week consolidation zone (~$38-$42). Support is at $44 (prior consolidation top) and $42.50-$43 (September 23 gap-up level). A sustained break above $47 would open the path toward $50-$52 (next resistance), while a break below $42.50 could trigger a deeper correction toward $40-$38 (August consolidation). Options flow shows heavy open interest at the 45 strike (both calls and puts) for September 28 expiry, creating a magnet effect around this level. [Sources: Yahoo Finance, TradingKey, IonQ IR]
(3) Price range: The $43.80-$47.90 range reflects a mild bullish 1-day outlook. Upside potential is supported by BofA's $60 target, NVIDIA partnership momentum, and quantum error correction breakthrough. Downside risk is elevated by profit-taking after the 11% surge, high valuation (25.2x forward P/S vs. industry average 4.57x), and Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). Expected 1-day volatility is ~4-5% based on recent ATR and options implied volatility (~45% for weekly options). The range is asymmetric: more room above ($2.60) than below ($1.50) to reflect bullish catalysts, but with meaningful downside risk from valuation compression and profit-taking. [Sources: ChronicleJournal, Yahoo Finance, IonQ IR]
(4) Catalysts: No major scheduled catalysts within the 1-day window. Key drivers include: (a) BofA initiation with Buy rating and $60 target (bullish sentiment); (b) NVIDIA partnership (NVAQC deployment); (c) Quantum error correction breakthrough (technical validation); (d) Superion 256 platform orders (2027 delivery timeline); (e) IEEE QCE26 Best Paper Awards (research credibility). [Sources: SeekingAlpha, CNBC, IonQ IR, Quantum Zeitgeist]
(5) Counter-argument: The strongest bearish case is that profit-taking accelerates after the 11% surge, pushing IONQ below $42.50 toward $40-$38 (August consolidation). This would invalidate the mild bullish range and suggest the rally was a 'buy the rumor, sell the news' event. High valuation (25.2x forward P/S) leaves little room for execution missteps, and Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) reflects skepticism about near-term profitability. Conversely, a resolution of profit-taking and acceleration in institutional buying could propel IONQ above $47 toward $50-$52, confirming continuation of the uptrend. [Sources: Yahoo Finance, ChronicleJournal, IonQ IR]
(6) Confidence: 60% reflects moderate conviction in a mild bullish bias, but with meaningful uncertainty. The quantum computing narrative is strong (NVIDIA partnership, error correction breakthrough, BofA initiation), but high valuation and profit-taking create near-term volatility. Technical structure is bullish on the daily chart, but intraday mixed signals (pre-market weakness, Zacks Sell rating) warrant caution. Moderate confidence is appropriate for a 1-day forecast in a high-beta, news-driven stock. A higher-confidence call would require a decisive break above $47 or below $42.50 with follow-through. [Sources: Yahoo Finance, SeekingAlpha, IonQ IR]
Claude Opus 5.5
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) What I found: a 24/7 Wall St. quote widget shows IONQ at $47.59 (+4.63%). The same widget shows NVDA at $232.71 (+3.39%) and SPY at $767.56 (-0.49%), which match today's reported moves, so I read it as a Monday Sept 28 intraday quote. The exact timestamp is not shown, so it may be slightly off the 14:37 UTC window start. Earlier context: IONQ closed $40.74 before jumping about 10% to $45 on Sept 23 after a real-time quantum error-correction decoder demonstration (GuruFocus/Yahoo). It traded at $44.08 on Sept 24 (24/7 Wall St.) and dipped in premarket on Friday Sept 25 after a multi-day rebound (GuruFocus/Yahoo).
(2) Regime: IonQ is running on company-specific momentum against a risk-off tape. CNN/TipRanks list 'IonQ initiated with a Buy at BofA' at 5:45 a.m. ET today, which is the likely driver of today's gain. That adds to a week of positive news: the Florida International University Superion 256 contract (Sept 24), deployment at NVIDIA's Accelerated Quantum Research Center, and Wedbush's $75 target. The company raised FY2026 revenue guidance to $450-460M after the SkyWater acquisition (8-K, Sept 8). The macro backdrop is hostile to high-multiple growth: 10-year yields near 5.2%, oil up on Iran, and the Nasdaq down about 1%.
(3) Range: IONQ typically moves about 5-7% a day, so a 1-sigma one-day move is about ±$3. I set $44.40-51.20: about $3.20 below and $3.60 above, a mild upside tilt reflecting analyst-initiation momentum and a string of positive news. The lower bound sits near the Sept 23-24 breakout area of about $44-45; the upper bound would extend the rally toward the low $50s.
(4) Catalysts in the window: follow-through from BofA's initiation and possible additional analyst notes; quantum-sector sentiment, where D-Wave and Rigetti often move with IonQ; and macro headlines (US-Iran talks, yields) that drive high-beta growth names. No IonQ earnings fall inside the window.
(5) Counter-argument: the stock has rallied about 17% from $40.74 in four sessions. Friday's premarket showed profit-taking tendencies after gains, and a gap higher on an analyst initiation often fades intraday, especially with the Nasdaq weak and yields rising. Directors have sold under 10b5-1 plans in the mid-$50s (Form 4s, June 2026), and selling-stockholder resale registrations exist. The mild bullish call is invalidated by a slide back below about $45 (the Sept 23 breakout level) with sector weakness.
(6) Confidence: 32%. I have a same-day price but no confirmed timestamp. IonQ's volatility is very high relative to any edge from the BofA initiation, and the macro tape is working against the stock, so the directional tilt is modest.
Muse Spark 1.1
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Finnhub live quote Sep 28 shows IONQ $45.82 current, open $45.64 high $47.91 low $45.5 previous close $45.48 up. CoinCentral Sep 28 notes BofA initiated Buy with $60 target, stock near $45.48 up 1%. VMVirtualMachine Sep 27 reports three Superion 256 systems placed Sep 21-24 with SDT, NVIDIA Accelerated Quantum Research Center, and Florida International University.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: Quantum sector momentum strong. IONQ 5-day +17.1% and 1-month +16.89% and 6-month +66.56% per Finnhub, outperforming despite YTD +2.12% and 1-year -28.7% base. Sector tailwind from NVIDIA partnership and BofA coverage driving accumulation.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Recent daily range $45.5-$47.91 ~$2.4, ATR elevated due to quantum beta. Lower bound $44 near previous close support and 4% below current, upper bound $49 near BofA path and above intraday high, asymmetric bullish with more upside room reflecting catalyst momentum.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: Superion placements announcements and BofA initiation are fresh catalysts Sep 27-28. No earnings in 1-day window but quantum computing conference headlines likely. NVIDIA research center installation is high visibility.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: Bear case is high valuation at 5.4x EV/S on 2030 revenue per BofA and history of volatility, plus broader tech yield pressure could trigger profit taking after 17% 5-day run. Invalidation would be close below $44 with volume spike and break of $45.48 support.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: 64% based on live price confirmation, concrete near-term catalysts within 48 hours, and strong momentum metrics from Finnhub. Confidence not higher because quantum stocks are highly volatile and 1-day move is still noise-dominated despite bullish setup.
Grok 4.5
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Live quote from Yahoo Finance as of approximately 11:05 AM EDT on 28 Sep 2026 shows IONQ at $45.98, up $0.50 (+1.10%) from the prior close of $45.48 (25 Sep). Session range so far is $45.50-$47.91. Historical closes (Stocknear, TradeSmith, ChartExchange) confirm recent strength: 25 Sep $45.48, 24 Sep $44.98, 23 Sep $42.54 after a sharp move on news. Key catalysts from IonQ investor site, Motley Fool, TipRanks and Quantum Insider: 22 Sep announcement of industry-first end-to-end real-time quantum error-correction decoder running on a single CPU; 23 Sep confirmation of Superion 256 deployment at Nvidia’s Accelerated Quantum Research Center; additional partnerships (SDT in South Korea, Florida International University).
(2) The current market regime as you read it: Quantum-computing names are in a short-term positive momentum phase following the error-correction milestone and Nvidia collaboration. IONQ has climbed from the low-$40s earlier in the week and is holding gains intraday despite broad-market mixed conditions. Volume remains elevated relative to longer-term averages, consistent with speculative interest in the sector. The stock remains highly volatile and unprofitable on a GAAP basis, so price action is news- and sentiment-driven rather than fundamental.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to the live $45.98 print. Recent daily ranges have frequently exceeded $3-$5, and the stock has moved 10%+ on single news days. A one-day horizon therefore accommodates a pullback toward the mid-$43 area (near recent support) or an extension toward $48-$49 if buying continues. The wide band reflects the stock’s elevated beta and event-driven character.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: No earnings (next estimated early November) or major scheduled events fall inside the one-day window. Near-term drivers are residual follow-through from the error-correction and Nvidia announcements, any secondary analyst commentary, and overall risk appetite for speculative tech. Absence of fresh negative headlines supports a mild positive bias.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: High short interest and the stock’s history of sharp reversals after news spikes could produce a fade back below $44 even without negative news. A broader market risk-off move or profit-taking after the multi-day rally would invalidate the mild bullish tilt. The call remains only mildly bullish on the 1d horizon precisely because one-day moves in this name are frequently dominated by noise.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Positive technical momentum and clear recent catalysts support a mild directional lean, yet the stock’s extreme volatility, lack of near-term fundamental catalysts, and speculative nature keep confidence low at 45%. One-day forecasts for high-beta names of this type are inherently uncertain.
DeepSeek
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) What I found: IonQ is trading at $45.48 as of the latest available quote on September 28, 2026, up 1.11% from the prior close of $44.98. The stock opened at $44.70 and has traded in a range of $44.12-$46.55. The primary catalyst is Bank of America Securities initiating coverage with a Buy rating and a $60 projected level, announced Monday morning. BofA views IonQ as the largest public pure-play quantum company by revenue and highlights its semiconductor-enabled path to scaling qubit count. The stock also benefits from recent momentum: a partnership with NVIDIA to deploy its Superion 256 platform at NVIDIA’s Accelerated Quantum Research Center, a quantum error-correction breakthrough, and a deployment win with Florida International University.
(2) Market regime: Quantum computing stocks are in a high-volatility regime, with IonQ’s beta at 2.96. The stock has rallied 16.20% over the past week but remains well below its 52-week high of $84.48. The broader market is dealing with elevated Treasury yields, which pressures long-duration growth names, but the BofA initiation provides a company-specific tailwind that has so far outweighed macro headwinds. Short interest sits at roughly 10-22% of float depending on the data source, creating potential for sharp moves in either direction.
(3) Price range justification: I am using a $43.50-$48.00 range. The lower bound reflects the $44.12 intraday low and the $43-$44 area that acted as support during last week’s consolidation. The upper bound is set below the $48-$50 zone that capped prior rallies and above the $46.55 intraday high, allowing room for continued momentum from the analyst initiation. The stock’s daily range has averaged roughly $2.50-$3.00 recently, so a $4.50 range is consistent with current volatility.
(4) Catalysts: The BofA initiation is the dominant catalyst and is already public. No earnings are scheduled within the 1-day window; the next report is estimated for early November 2026. There are no major economic releases or Fed events inside the window that would specifically target quantum names. The main risk is that the analyst news is fully priced in by the close.
(5) Counter-argument: The strongest bear case is that IonQ has already rallied over 16% in a week and the BofA target of $60 is a 12-month view, not a next-day catalyst. Profit-taking after the morning pop is a real possibility, especially if the broader tech tape weakens. A close below $44 would invalidate the mild-bullish thesis and suggest the news was fully discounted. Conversely, a close above $47 would confirm that buyers are still in control.
(6) Confidence: I set confidence at 55% because the catalyst is substantive and verifiable, but the stock is extended after a strong weekly run and the 1-day horizon is dominated by noise. The high beta means the range could easily be breached in either direction, so the confidence reflects a modest edge rather than a strong conviction.
Gemini 3 Pro
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Live market quotes retrieved via financial data feeds place IonQ Inc. (IONQ) at $46.07 as of September 28, 2026, supported by fresh institutional attention including Bank of America's recent initiation with a Buy rating and a $60 projected level.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: The asset is experiencing strong momentum following recent catalysts, including a high-profile Nvidia deal, real-time error-correction decoder disclosures, and an upwardly revised 2026 revenue outlook to $450-$460 million incorporating the SkyWater acquisition.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Given elevated intraday volatility and a recent push toward resistance near $47.91, the 1-day range is bracketed between immediate support around $44.50 and upper resistance near $48.50, capturing the typical daily ATR for this high-beta equity.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: Near-term price action will likely be driven by continuation flows from the recent Bank of America initiation coverage and broader quantum sector momentum heading into the final stretch of Q3.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: The primary risk is a sharp mean-reversion fade following overbought conditions, given that high-multiple tech names often experience profit-taking after digesting major analyst coverage upgrades and partnership announcements.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Confidence is held at 58% to reflect strong underlying fundamental tailwinds and bullish analyst sentiment offset by the inherent volatility and short-term exhaustion risks typical of rapid multi-day advances.
Read this comparison on ForecastNest, where it stays up to date if a score is ever recomputed.
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