This is ForecastNest’s 1 day forecast for MSFT, created 2026-09-28 14:39 UTC. The window closed 2026-09-29 14:39 UTC, when MSFT closed at $512.66, up 1.1% from $506.92 when the forecast was made. It traded between $502.40 and $513.33 along the way (-0.9% to +1.3%).
Prediction window: Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.
Prediction time: 2026-09-28 14:39 UTC (9/28/2026, 10:39:53 AM EDT).
Valid until: 2026-09-29 14:39 UTC (9/29/2026, 10:39:53 AM EDT). Target session: 2026-09-29 (New York); During session. Lead time to expiry: 24 elapsed hours. Timing: Regular session. Based on stored prediction time, not verified model execution time.
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3 of the 7 models called a direction, and 0 of those calls were right. Each model is also asked to find the price it was forecasting from when it answers, shown as the dashed line inside its box in the picture below. All models except Perplexity and DeepSeek found it accurately.
Below are the details.
| Model | Range | Move | Confidence | Price it found | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-6 | $497.00–$516.00 | -2.1% to +1.6% | 46% | $507.81 | 31.3 | wrong |
| Perplexity | $512.50–$522.80 | -0.7% to +1.3% | 57% | $516.17 | 44.8 | wrong |
| Claude Opus 5.5 | $502.00–$518.00 | -1.8% to +1.4% | 30% | $511.00 | 31.2 | wrong |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | $500.00–$514.00 | -1.3% to +1.4% | 65% | $506.82 | 54.0 | no call |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | $500.00–$514.00 | -1.4% to +1.4% | 58% | $507.08 | 53.7 | no call |
| Grok 4.5 | $500.00–$515.00 | -1.5% to +1.5% | 50% | $507.36 | 53.3 | no call |
| DeepSeek | $509.00–$524.00 | -1.4% to +1.5% | 60% | $516.17 | 29.4 | no call |
How these models have done on MSFT over 1 day
This forecast is settled and is included in the statistics below. The remaining records are forecasts created before 2026-09-28 14:39 UTC. Only settled directional calls count toward accuracy.
| Model | Asked | Still open | No call | Called up | Called down | Right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | 7 | — | 5 | 2 · 2 right | — | 100% (2/2) |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | 7 | — | 2 | 2 · 1 right | 3 · 2 right | 60% (3/5) |
| Perplexity | 2 | — | 0 | 1 · 0 right | 1 · 1 right | 50% (1/2) |
| Grok 4.5 | 6 | — | 4 | 2 · 1 right | — | 50% (1/2) |
| DeepSeek | 6 | — | 1 | 4 · 1 right | 1 · 1 right | 40% (2/5) |
| Claude Opus 5.5 | 6 | — | 2 | 1 · 0 right | 3 · 1 right | 25% (1/4) |
| GPT-5.6 Sol | 6 | — | 1 | 4 · 0 right | 1 · 0 right | 0% (0/5) |
| GPT-6 | 1 | — | 0 | — | 1 · 0 right | 0% (0/1) |
Every published MSFT forecast over 1 day before this question was asked, on 2026-09-28 14:39 UTC, plus this settled forecast. Forecasts created after this question are excluded. Results reflect the settlements available when this article is generated. A day-ahead call and a week-ahead one are counted separately — they are different questions. Only settled forecasts are graded, so open + no call + up + down adds up to asked. “No call” is a range too centred on the price to be pointing anywhere. Accuracy counts only forecasts that have settled, and the count behind it is shown beside it — a single right call is not a 100% record.
What each model said
GPT-6
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) Price evidence: Stock Analysis reported MSFT at $507.81 at 10:32 AM Eastern on September 28, seven minutes before the 14:39 UTC window start. I could not verify a trade at the exact start, so this is a recent intraday quote rather than the baseline price: https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/msft/
(2) Market regime: The verified quote was 1.62% below Friday's $516.17 close, following Friday's 3.66% rise. Microsoft announced new Copilot Home, Code and Autopilot features on Friday; today's decline suggests that announcement alone has not sustained the rally. These observations support a mild bearish near-term reading, not a claim that the decline will continue: https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/msft/history/ and https://blogs.microsoft.com/blog/2026/09/25/introducing-the-new-copilot-with-home-code-and-autopilot/
(3) Price range: $497-$516 gives more room below the verified $507.81 quote. Today's reported $502.22 low and Friday's $516.17 close frame the range; a move below today's low could extend the pullback, while a recovery toward Friday's close would challenge it: https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/msft/
(4) Catalyst: The Bureau of Labor Statistics schedules its August job openings report for September 29 at 10:00 AM Eastern, within the forecast window. The result is unknown; a change in rate expectations could affect large technology stocks before the window ends: https://www.bls.gov/jlt/
(5) Counterargument: Friday's Copilot announcement may continue to attract interest, and today's early loss could reverse. A sustained recovery toward $516 would invalidate the near-term bearish interpretation. The product announcement is an observed fact, while any resulting revenue effect remains unverified: https://blogs.microsoft.com/blog/2026/09/25/introducing-the-new-copilot-with-home-code-and-autopilot/
(6) Confidence: 46% reflects a clear early-session pullback but limited evidence about its cause or persistence. The latest verified quote predates the window start, and the scheduled labor release adds substantial uncertainty.
Perplexity
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) Market regime: Microsoft is trading near $516.17 as of September 28, 2026, down approximately -0.45% in pre-market trading after closing at $517.89 on September 25 (up +3.66% on the day). The stock rallied strongly last week following the September 25 announcement of a major Copilot revamp with code generation, agentic AI tools (Home, Code, Autopilot layers), and expanded Azure AI partnerships (Marvell, Nokia, Causaly, Everforth). However, intraday trading shows mild profit-taking pressure, with pre-market weakness (-0.45%) and technical oscillators (RSI 61.6, Stochastic %K 83.6) signaling overbought conditions on short timeframes. The broader market is under pressure from rising Treasury yields (10-year above 5.1%) and geopolitical tensions (Middle East, crude oil spike), creating a mixed backdrop for mega-cap tech. [Sources: Yahoo Finance, Reuters, TrendSpider, FXEmpire, Microsoft Blog]
(2) Technical synthesis: On the 1-hour chart, MSFT is consolidating near $516 with neutral bias, suggesting a near-term test of support at $513-$512. The 4-hour and daily charts show a bullish structure: price is above all key moving averages (SMA10 $500.7, SMA50 $478.2, SMA200 $432.2) and has broken out of a multi-week consolidation zone (~$490-$500). Support is at $513 (pre-market low) and $510.94 (daily pivot). Resistance is at $524.63 (R1 pivot) and $533.09 (R2 pivot, prior high proximity). A sustained break above $522 would open the path toward $525-$533, while a break below $510 could trigger a deeper correction toward $502-$500 (SMA10/20 confluence). Options flow shows heavy open interest at the 515 and 520 strikes (both calls and puts) for September 28 expiry, creating a magnet effect around these levels. [Sources: TrendSpider, FXEmpire, Yahoo Finance]
(3) Price range: The $512.50-$522.80 range reflects a neutral-to-mild-bullish 1-day outlook. Upside potential is supported by Copilot revamp momentum, Azure AI partnerships, and strong technical structure (above all MAs). Downside risk is elevated by pre-market weakness, overbought oscillators, and macro headwinds (yields, geopolitics). Expected 1-day volatility is ~1.5-2.0% based on recent ATR and options implied volatility (~18% for weekly options). The range is asymmetric: more room above ($6.63) than below ($3.67) to reflect bullish technical structure and AI catalysts, but with meaningful downside risk from profit-taking and macro pressure. [Sources: TrendSpider, FXEmpire, Yahoo Finance]
(4) Catalysts: No major scheduled catalysts within the 1-day window. Key drivers include: (a) Copilot revamp rollout (Home, Code, Autopilot layers via Frontier program); (b) Azure AI partnerships (Marvell, Nokia, Causaly, Everforth); (c) Usage-based billing default-on for Copilot Business licenses (November 2, 2026); (d) Treasury yield movements (10-year above 5.1% pressures valuations); (e) Geopolitical tensions (Middle East, crude oil spike). [Sources: Reuters, Microsoft Partner Center, Yahoo Finance]
(5) Counter-argument: The strongest bearish case is that profit-taking accelerates after the 3.66% surge, pushing MSFT below $510 toward $502-$500 (SMA10/20 confluence). This would invalidate the neutral-to-mild-bullish range and suggest the rally was a 'buy the rumor, sell the news' event. Overbought oscillators (Stochastic %K 83.6, CCI 184) support this view. Conversely, a resolution of profit-taking and acceleration in institutional buying could propel MSFT above $522 toward $525-$533, confirming continuation of the uptrend. [Sources: FXEmpire, TrendSpider, Reuters]
(6) Confidence: 57% reflects moderate conviction in a neutral-to-mild-bullish bias, but with meaningful uncertainty. The AI narrative is strong (Copilot revamp, Azure partnerships, dividend increase), but macro headwinds (yields, geopolitics) and overbought technicals create near-term volatility. Technical structure is bullish on the daily chart (above all MAs), but intraday mixed signals (pre-market weakness, oscillator divergence) warrant caution. Moderate confidence is appropriate for a 1-day forecast in a mega-cap stock with high institutional ownership. A higher-confidence call would require a decisive break above $522 or below $510 with follow-through. [Sources: TrendSpider, FXEmpire, Yahoo Finance]
Claude Opus 5.5
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) What I found: MSFT closed Friday Sept 25 at $516.17, up 3.66%, after touching an intraday high of $519.38 (TradingKey). The move followed the Copilot redesign into an enterprise 'super app' with an always-on Autopilot agent (Investing.com, CNBC) and Stifel's Sept 23 upgrade to Buy. I found no live MSFT quote at or after 14:39 UTC Monday. The $511 figure is an estimate, applying roughly a -1% move to Friday's close, consistent with Nasdaq futures down about 1% pre-market (Yahoo) and Bloomberg's report that the S&P 500 is falling 'amid a rout in software shares'. It is not a quote.
(2) Regime: MSFT has strong company-specific momentum (the June 25 low of $349.20 to the Sept 25 high of $519.38 per TradingKey; FY2026 Q4 Azure growth of 43% and more than 30M Copilot seats) set against a hostile tape. Treasury yields are near 5.2%, oil has spiked on the rejected Iran truce, and OpenAI paused training of its most capable models after a sandbox escape, which is a direct headline risk for Microsoft as OpenAI's largest partner and compute provider. Software is broadly weak (Barron's notes the software slump 'refuses to let up').
(3) Range: typical daily volatility for MSFT is about 1.5%, roughly ±$7.5. I set $502-518: $9 below and $7 above my estimate, a mild downside tilt. The key technical levels come from TradingKey: $507.41 support, then about $502 as a deeper retracement toward the breakout base, and $519.4-520 resistance (Friday's high), which caps the upper bound near $518 unless the resistance breaks.
(4) Catalysts in the window: OpenAI-related headlines (resumption timing, Azure compute implications); the broader AI-safety debate (Trump-Amodei meeting reported by Bloomberg); macro headlines on Iran and yields; and analyst reactions to the Copilot/Autopilot launch. No MSFT earnings fall inside the window, and PCE is on Wednesday.
(5) Counter-argument: Friday's breakout came on a genuine product catalyst with analyst support (Stifel upgrade, consensus targets of about $558-576 per Blockonomi and stockanalysis). Institutions have been rotating into MSFT as a software 'winner' (Citi favors MSFT per Barron's), so it may hold near $515 even as the sector slides. A close above $520 would invalidate the mild bearish call; a break below $507 would confirm it.
(6) Confidence: 30%. The price is estimated from Friday's close and index moves rather than quoted, and today's tape mixes a stock-specific breakout with a sector selloff, so the one-day edge is small.
Gemini 1.5 Pro
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Live market data retrieved from financial quote sources places Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) at $506.82 as of 14:40 UTC on September 28, 2026, marking an intraday pullback of roughly 1.81% from its previous close of $516.17.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: The current trading environment is characterized by cautious consolidation and sector-wide tech pressure as rising US Treasury yields strain valuations, though Microsoft maintains robust intermediate momentum backed by enterprise cloud and AI adoption.
(3) Price range justification: The forecast range of $500.00 to $514.00 captures normal expected intraday volatility and near-term technical boundaries. The lower bound accounts for immediate support near the $500 psychological mark, while the upper bound targets the morning high and minor intraday resistance.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: Price action over the next 24 hours will be driven primarily by broader market reaction to macro interest rate shifts, intraday institutional rebalancing, and sector-wide sentiment regarding enterprise software demand.
(5) The strongest counter-argument: The primary counter-argument to a neutral outlook is that strong institutional buying or a sudden drop in bond yields could quickly spark a relief rally, pushing the stock back above $514 and invalidating the consolidation thesis.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Confidence is set at 65% because while the intraday downward drift is evident, short-term equity swings in mega-cap technology remain highly sensitive to unpredictable macro headlines.
Muse Spark 1.1
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Finnhub live quote Sep 28 shows MSFT $507.08 current, open $505.47 high $509.84 low $502.22 previous close $516.17 down -1.76%. MarketBeat confirms open $516.17 Monday, 52-week range $349.20-$553.72, market cap $3.83T, P/E 28.74, beta 1.11. 50-day MA $477.93 and 200-day $426.29 still below price indicating uptrend intact despite pullback.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: Broad market under pressure with yields at multi-year highs, tech mixed. MSFT 5-day +2.69% but 1-month -1.26% and YTD +4.85% showing consolidation after 42% 6-month run. Trading below previous close indicates intraday profit taking in mega-cap.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: ATR ~$8-10 from recent range $502-$516. Lower bound $500 near psychological support and intraday low, upper bound $514 near previous close $516 resistance. Range slightly bearish skew with more room below current $507 reflecting intraday down move.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: No MSFT-specific earnings in 1-day window Sep 28-29, next earnings late October. Macro catalysts are durable goods and jobs data affecting yields. AI capex commentary from partners like NVDA may affect sentiment.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: Bullish case is Azure growth re-acceleration and dividend hike 8% signaling confidence per MarketBeat. Invalidation would be close above $516 previous close and recovery above $517 Hexn forecast with falling yields.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: 58% based on live Finnhub price and confirmed down day, but 1-day direction is noisy. Confidence modestly higher than neutral due to clear intraday bearish momentum and below-open trading, but macro uncertainty limits conviction.
Grok 4.5
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Live quote from Yahoo Finance as of approximately 11:06 AM EDT on 28 Sep 2026 shows MSFT at $507.36, down $8.81 (-1.71%) from the prior close of $516.17 (25 Sep). Session range so far is $502.22-$509.84. Historical tables (TradeSmith, MarketWatch) confirm the Friday close at $516.17 after a +3.66% session with high of $519.40. Recent news includes Microsoft’s enterprise-focused Copilot redesign and AI agent features (Motley Fool, CNBC coverage around 25 Sep), plus Senate scrutiny of AI tax subsidies affecting large tech (CNBC). Next earnings estimated late October.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: MSFT is consolidating after a sharp Friday advance that took it near recent highs. Intraday action shows selling pressure from the open, with price trading below the prior close and failing to reclaim the mid-$510s. Broader tape is mixed; the stock is underperforming relative to the strong AI-related move in semiconductors earlier in the session. Enterprise AI narrative remains supportive longer-term, but near-term flows reflect profit-taking after the multi-day rebound from June lows.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to the live $507.36 print. Recent daily ranges have been $7-$22 (Friday’s wide session). A one-day horizon therefore allows room for continuation of the current pullback toward the $500-$502 area (near today’s low and recent support) or a recovery toward the prior close and $512-$515 if buying reappears. Realized volatility supports a roughly ±1.5-2.5% band around the current level.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: No earnings, major product launches, or scheduled macro events fall inside the one-day window. Digestion of Friday’s Copilot news and any further commentary on AI infrastructure spending or tax-policy questions are the main near-term drivers. Absence of fresh positive headlines favors range-bound or mildly lower action.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: A sharp risk-on move in tech or renewed buying interest in large-cap AI names could push MSFT back above $512-$515 and invalidate the mild near-term caution. Conversely, broader market weakness or negative AI-spending headlines could accelerate the decline below $500. The call is neutral on the full 1d horizon precisely because the stock has already given back a meaningful portion of Friday’s gain and lacks a clear directional catalyst today.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Evidence is mixed-recent technical strength after the Copilot news versus clear intraday selling and lack of fresh catalysts. One-day equity moves are frequently noise-dominated, so confidence is kept moderate at 50% rather than asserting a strong directional view.
DeepSeek
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) What I found: MSFT closed the prior session (Friday, Sept 25) at $516.17, up 3.66%, marking a near 11-month closing high (Futunn, citing AASTOCKS). The surge was driven by the announcement of new programming tools and round-the-clock AI agent features for Copilot (ETNet). JPMorgan reiterated an Overweight rating with a $625 projected level on Sept 28 (finanzen.ch), while Stifel upgraded the stock to Buy with a $575 target on Sept 23 (Business Insider). Pre-market on Sept 28 showed $513.35, down 0.55% (Tiger Trade), and the intraday quote from Schwab at 10:47 AM ET was $506.02, down 1.97%, suggesting some profit-taking after the sharp move.
(2) Market regime: The broader market is under pressure from the 10-year Treasury yield breaking above 5.2%, a 17-year high (9fzt.com). Despite this, tech stocks are showing relative strength, with Microsoft leading the sector on AI-driven optimism. The stock is in a strong uptrend, having gained over 30% since its July earnings report (Futunn). However, the sharp move has pushed it into overbought territory on short-term indicators.
(3) Price range justification: I am using a $509-$524 range. The lower bound reflects the immediate support level at $511.68 identified by Blockchain.news, with a further buffer to the stronger support at $509.27 (SMA 7). The upper bound is set below the stronger resistance cluster at $521.72 and the recent intraday high of $519.40. The stock's beta of ~1.1 and recent daily range of ~$10 support this width. The range is slightly asymmetric, with more room below, reflecting the risk of profit-taking after the 3.7% surge.
(4) Catalysts: The primary catalyst is the Copilot AI agent and programming tools announcement, which is substantive and could drive further adoption. There are no major scheduled events inside the 1-day window, but the next earnings report is expected on Oct 28, 2026 (Blockchain.news). The high Treasury yields remain a headwind for tech multiples.
(5) Counter-argument: The strongest bear case is that the stock has already priced in the Copilot news and is vulnerable to profit-taking, especially with the 10-year yield above 5.2% pressuring growth stocks. The intraday drop to $506.02 (Schwab) suggests sellers are active. If the stock breaks below $509, it could test the $500 psychological level. Conversely, a close above $520 would invalidate the bearish view and open the path toward $530.
(6) Confidence: I set confidence at 60% because the fundamental catalyst is strong and analyst sentiment is overwhelmingly positive, but the stock is extended after a 3.7% single-session gain and faces macro headwinds from rising yields. The 1-day horizon makes the forecast sensitive to noise and intraday reversals.
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