This is ForecastNest’s 7 days forecast for IONQ, created 2026-09-04 22:43 UTC. The window closed 2026-09-11 22:43 UTC, when IONQ closed at $36.75, down 7.0% from $39.52 when the forecast was made. It traded between $36.33 and $44.43 along the way (-8.1% to +12.4%).
Prediction window: Existing Mode 1 horizon rules apply; the stored expiry is authoritative.
Prediction time: 2026-09-04 22:43 UTC (9/4/2026, 6:43:53 PM EDT).
Valid until: 2026-09-11 22:43 UTC (9/11/2026, 6:43:53 PM EDT). Target session: 2026-09-11 (New York); Stored expiry outside regular session. Lead time to expiry: 168 elapsed hours. Timing: After close. Based on stored prediction time, not verified model execution time.
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5 of the 5 models called a direction, and 1 of those calls were right. Each model is also asked to find the price it was forecasting from when it answers, shown as the dashed line inside its box in the picture below. Every model found it accurately.
Below are the details.
| Model | Range | Move | Confidence | Price it found | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Luna | $35.00–$45.50 | -12.1% to +14.2% | 79% | $39.83 | 30.8 | wrong |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | $35.00–$45.00 | -11.4% to +13.9% | 65% | $39.52 | 30.9 | wrong |
| Grok 4.5 | $35.00–$45.00 | -11.4% to +13.9% | 40% | $39.52 | 30.9 | wrong |
| DeepSeek-R1 | $36.50–$44.50 | -7.6% to +12.6% | 52% | $39.52 | 32.2 | wrong |
| claude-opus-5 (Claude Opus 5) | $34.30–$43.70 | -13.6% to +10.0% | 37% | $39.72 | 78.8 | right |
How these models have done on IONQ over 7 days
This forecast is settled and is included in the statistics below. The remaining records are forecasts created before 2026-09-04 22:43 UTC. Only settled directional calls count toward accuracy.
| Model | Asked | Still open | No call | Called up | Called down | Right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grok 4.5 | 2 | — | 0 | 2 · 1 right | — | 50% (1/2) |
| DeepSeek-R1 | 2 | — | 0 | 2 · 1 right | — | 50% (1/2) |
| claude-opus-5 (Claude Opus 5) | 2 | — | 0 | — | 2 · 1 right | 50% (1/2) |
| GPT-5.6 Luna | 2 | — | 0 | 1 · 0 right | 1 · 0 right | 0% (0/2) |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | 2 | — | 0 | 1 · 0 right | 1 · 0 right | 0% (0/2) |
Every published IONQ forecast these models made over 7 days before this question was asked, on 2026-09-04 22:43 UTC, plus this settled forecast. Forecasts created after this question are excluded. Results reflect the settlements available when this article is generated. A day-ahead call and a week-ahead one are counted separately — they are different questions. Only settled forecasts are graded, so open + no call + up + down adds up to asked. “No call” is a range too centred on the price to be pointing anywhere. Accuracy counts only forecasts that have settled, and the count behind it is shown beside it — a single right call is not a 100% record.
What each model said
GPT-5.6 Luna
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) Market regime: IONQ closed September 4 at $39.23 according to Investing.com, after trading between $38.87 and $39.68. Investing.com then showed an after-hours quote around $39.83, providing a current post-market reference for the requested window. September 3 had already produced a 3.67% gain to $39.02, so the stock enters the seven-day window with short-term momentum improving. Sources: Investing.com and ChartExchange. ([Investing.com][1])
(2) Technical synthesis: The short-term technical picture has turned constructive: Investing.com's September 4 snapshot showed RSI(14) at 55.2, positive short-term oscillators, and buy signals from the 5-, 10-, and 20-day averages. However, the 50-day average near $39.47 and 200-day average near $40.86 were still classified as sell levels, so IONQ is approaching a significant resistance band rather than emerging from a fully confirmed long-term uptrend. Source: Investing.com. ([Investing.com][2])
(3) Price range: For the seven-day window I estimate $35.00-$45.50. The lower bound allows a retracement toward the recent September 1-2 lows around $36.78-$37.64 if the event setup disappoints or risk appetite deteriorates; the upper bound allows a breakout through the $40.86 200-day average toward the recent $42.94-$45.46 trading area. The range is deliberately wide because IONQ has recently moved several percent per session and event-driven volatility is elevated. Sources: ChartExchange and Investing.com. ([ChartExchange][3])
(4) Catalysts: The dominant catalyst falls directly inside this forecast window: IonQ Investor Day is scheduled for September 8, 2026 at 12:30 PM ET, according to IonQ's official investor-relations calendar. Barron's reports that investors will focus on the strategic and financial implications of IonQ's $1.8 billion SkyWater acquisition and the company's broader quantum-computing ambitions. This makes the next few sessions unusually sensitive to management commentary and updated expectations. Sources: IonQ Investor Relations and Barron's. ([IonQ Investors][4])
(5) Counter-argument: The strongest bullish case is that IONQ has reclaimed the high-$39 area while the broader semiconductor and technology complex showed strong relative strength on September 4. The strongest bearish case is valuation and technical resistance: Investing.com shows the stock still below the 200-day average, while the company trades at a very high price-to-sales multiple and remains dependent on expectations of rapid future quantum commercialization. A disappointing Investor Day, weak forward guidance, or renewed pressure from higher interest rates would invalidate the bullish seven-day interpretation. Source: Investing.com and Barron's. ([Investing.com][2])
(6) Confidence: Confidence is 79%. The seven-day bullish signal is stronger than the one-day signal because the September 8 Investor Day provides a concrete catalyst that can overcome the current moving-average resistance. The stock's recent rebound, improving momentum indicators, and proximity to the $40.86 200-day average support a breakout scenario, but I retain a wide range and neutral 30-day signal because the same event can produce substantial two-sided volatility and the long-term technical trend has not fully turned positive.
Gemini 1.5 Pro
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) Data sourced from financial platforms including MarketBeat and live exchange feeds confirms IONQ closed the regular trading session at $39.52 on Friday, September 4, 2026, recovering slightly from an intraday low of $38.83.
(2) The current market regime for this asset is characterized by extreme volatility and a technical tug-of-war. Despite strong fundamental top-line growth (recently reporting 286% YoY revenue growth), the stock has struggled technically, recently flashing a bearish
Grok 4.5
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Friday 4 Sep 2026 close was $39.52 (up 1.28% from Thursday’s $39.02), day range $38.83-$39.73, volume ~12.8-13M, per Yahoo Finance, StockAnalysis, ChartExchange, MarketWatch and KTTC. After-hours held near $39.70-$39.75. Prior closes: 3 Sep $39.02, 2 Sep $37.64. 52-week range $25.89-$84.64.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: Continued modest rebound for the high-beta quantum-computing name, building on Thursday’s gain. Price action remains contained within a recent consolidation range while tracking broader risk appetite in speculative growth stocks.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to the $39.52 Friday close. Recent daily ranges of $1.5-$3+ and beta ~3.3 support potential weekly moves of 10-15%. Lower bound near $35 allows for a retest of early-September lows; upper bound near $45 covers extension toward late-August levels. Range is roughly balanced with a mild upside bias from the recent recovery.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: No company-specific earnings or major filings expected in the immediate 7-day horizon (next earnings estimated early November). Broader market direction and any quantum-sector news remain the primary potential drivers.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: A sharp risk-off move in growth/tech could push IONQ below $35; stronger continuation of the rebound could drive a break above $45. Sustained trade outside the stated range would overturn the mild bullish lean.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Live Friday close is confirmed and the short-term direction is constructive, yet high-volatility speculative names produce large noise over multi-day horizons; absence of stock-specific catalysts keeps conviction moderate.
DeepSeek-R1
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) Current price and data sources: At the forecast window start (2026-09-04 22:43 UTC), IONQ closed the regular session at $39.52, up 1.28% on the day. The intraday range was $38.85-$39.73, with after-hours trading showing $39.70, up 0.66%. Volume was 12.95 million shares, below the 24.67 million average, indicating lighter participation. The 52-week range is $25.89-$84.64, and the stock has a beta of 3.30, reflecting high volatility. I have anchored my range to the regular session close of $39.52.
(2) Current market regime: IONQ has been consolidating in the $37-$40 range since late August, recovering from its August 28 low of $38.64. The stock remains below its 50-day moving average of $41.66 and 200-day moving average of $43.52, indicating a medium-term downtrend. The RSI is neutral near 45, and short interest is elevated at 10.66% of shares outstanding. The company reported blockbuster Q2 revenue of $80.05 million, up 287% year-over-year, and raised 2026 revenue guidance to $280-$290 million from $260-$270 million. However, the adjusted EBITDA loss was $120.3 million due to SkyWater integration costs, and the company remains unprofitable with a negative P/E ratio.
(3) Price range justification: I expect IONQ to trade between $36.50 and $44.50 over the next 7-day window. The lower bound of $36.50 is informed by the August 3 low of $36.78, with additional cushion for potential downside if broader market sentiment sours. The upper bound of $44.50 is informed by the $43.33-$44.86 range from August 21-24 and the resistance near the 200-day moving average at $43.52. The range is asymmetric to the upside because the September 8 investor day is a significant catalyst that could trigger a rally if management delivers a compelling combined guidance following the SkyWater acquisition.
(4) Scheduled catalysts inside the window: The primary catalyst is the investor day on September 8 at the NYSE, where management is expected to provide a combined financial forecast following the $1.8 billion SkyWater acquisition. The company completed the acquisition in July, creating the only vertically integrated full-stack quantum platform company. The public warrants are scheduled to expire on September 30, 2026, which could create dilution concerns but is outside the 7-day window. Additionally, the Quantum World Congress from September 23-25 will feature IonQ's CEO, but that is beyond the forecast period. Broader market catalysts include Fed policy expectations and geopolitical risks, but the investor day is the dominant near-term driver.
(5) Strongest counter-argument: The bullish case is that IONQ is significantly undervalued relative to Wall Street consensus. Analysts maintain a "Moderate Buy" consensus with an average projected level of $69.92, implying substantial upside from current levels. The SkyWater acquisition gives IonQ control of its own semiconductor fabrication, potentially accelerating development of a 200,000-qubit system by approximately 12 months. A positive surprise at the investor day-such as a strong combined guidance or a major government contract-could trigger a sharp rally. Conversely, if the investor day fails to impress or if management provides disappointing guidance, the stock could retest the $36 support level or lower. A break below $36.50 would invalidate my bullish 7-day view.
(6) Confidence rationale: My confidence is 52%, reflecting a stock in a consolidation phase with a clear catalyst (September 8 investor day) but uncertain outcome. The 7-day window includes the investor day, which could easily move the stock 10-20% in either direction. The stock's beta of 3.30 means it is highly sensitive to broader market moves, creating additional two-way risk. I am confident in the $36.50-$44.50 range because it is anchored by well-defined support and resistance levels, but the exact path within that range depends on the investor day outcome and broader market sentiment. The 52% confidence acknowledges that the bullish case is supported by strong revenue growth and analyst targets, but the company remains unprofitable and faces execution risk with the SkyWater integration.
claude-opus-5 (Claude Opus 5)
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) What I found, and where: IONQ closed Friday September 4 at $39.52, up 1.28%, in a $38.83-$39.73 range on 13.0M shares, with an after-hours print of $39.72 (+0.51%) timestamped 5:58pm EDT - about 45 minutes ahead of this 22:43 UTC baseline, and the figure I am anchoring to (stockanalysis.com). Market cap is $15.70B and the 52-week range is $25.89-$84.64, leaving the stock roughly 53% below its 52-week high. The last ten sessions show violent chop with no net progress: $41.06 (Aug 24, -8.47%), $42.46 (Aug 27, +6.07%), $39.20 (Aug 28, -7.68%), $37.64 (Sep 2), then two green days into Friday. Daily moves of 4-8% in either direction are the norm here, and the whole stretch has traded a $37.64-$42.46 band.
(2) Current market regime: this is a hostile rate tape for long-duration, pre-profit equities, and quantum is the purest expression of that cohort. August payrolls printed 162,000 against forecasts near 55-65k with unemployment steady at 4.1% (UPI, CNBC), pushing September rate-hike odds up - reported at 60.2% from 49.4% by 247wallst.com, though TheStreet put the same pricing nearer 50% after Governor Waller's dovish remarks, so treat the level as rising and contested. Front-end Treasury yields set 52-week highs Friday (2Y 4.374%, 5Y 4.545% per TheStreet). Notably, capital rotated into established semiconductors on that print - SOXX +3%, Intel +4%, NVIDIA +2% (247wallst.com) - while IONQ managed only +1.28%, which is the tell: the bid is going to profitable AI infrastructure, not speculative quantum. Prior sector coverage has characterized quantum names as trading "like one crowded basket" with investors refocused on losses and cash burn (TipRanks).
(3) Price range justification: from the $39.72 anchor, the realized daily standard deviation across the last ten sessions is roughly 5%, and the window contains only four cash sessions - Monday September 7 is Labor Day and US markets are closed. Four sessions at that sigma gives about a 10% one-standard-deviation envelope, which I widen toward 12-13% for the inflation print. The band is $34.30 to $43.70: about 13.6% of room below versus 10.0% above. The downward skew reflects the rate-sensitivity asymmetry rather than any company-specific deterioration - a hot CPI hits a $15.7B market cap on ~$285M of guided revenue harder than it hits a profitable chipmaker, while a cool print mostly returns the stock to the top of the $37.64-$42.46 chop band it has occupied for two weeks.
(4) Catalysts inside the window: there is no IonQ-specific scheduled event. Q2 was reported August 6 - revenue about $80M, up 287% year over year and roughly 20% above Street, with full-year 2026 guidance raised to $280-290M from $260-270M and management reiterating at least 100% organic growth (Benzinga). The next earnings event is Q3 in November, outside this window. So what trades here is macro: August CPI on Thursday September 11 at 8:30am ET, roughly ten hours before the window closes, plus PPI in the same stretch (BLS schedule via usinflationcalculator.com), and weekly jobless claims September 10. Sector-sympathy moves from Rigetti or D-Wave headlines are the main idiosyncratic wildcard, since these names still trade as a correlated basket.
(5) Strongest counter-argument and invalidation: the fundamentals genuinely do not support a bearish structural read. A 287% revenue growth rate with raised guidance and international customers near 50% of revenue is not a deteriorating business, and the sell-side sits mostly above spot - Rosenblatt $100, Cantor $70, Needham $65, with JPMorgan the bear at $50 Neutral (Benzinga). IONQ has also closed higher two sessions running into this window. My MILD BEARISH 7d call is invalidated if CPI comes in at or below consensus and hike odds retreat, or if the stock clears the $42.46 August 27 high on expanding volume, either of which would confirm the basket is being re-accumulated rather than distributed. It is also fair to say the last ten sessions are better described as directionless than as a downtrend, so the lean is thin.
(6) Confidence justification: 37%, deliberately low. The directional case rests entirely on a rate-regime asymmetry and one binary data point, not on any change in the company, and the stock has spent two weeks proving it can move 6-8% in either direction on nothing in particular. The 4h and 1d horizons are NEUTRAL by construction rather than judgment - markets are closed through the weekend and again for Labor Day, so there is no session to forecast. The 30d NEUTRAL reflects real two-sidedness around the September 16 FOMC. The 180d MILD BULLISH rests on the revenue trajectory and raised guidance, with the honest caveat that a pre-profit name 53% below its 52-week high in a rising-rate tape is a fundamentally-driven call being made against the prevailing macro current.
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