This is ForecastNest’s 7 days forecast for SOXL, created 2026-09-04 22:39 UTC. The window closed 2026-09-11 22:39 UTC, when SOXL closed at $121.82, up 3.6% from $117.54 when the forecast was made. It traded between $113.55 and $128.48 along the way (-3.4% to +9.3%).
Prediction window: Existing Mode 1 horizon rules apply; the stored expiry is authoritative.
Prediction time: 2026-09-04 22:39 UTC (9/4/2026, 6:39:25 PM EDT).
Valid until: 2026-09-11 22:39 UTC (9/11/2026, 6:39:25 PM EDT). Target session: 2026-09-11 (New York); Stored expiry outside regular session. Lead time to expiry: 168 elapsed hours. Timing: After close. Based on stored prediction time, not verified model execution time.
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6 of the 6 models called a direction, and 3 of those calls were right. Each model is also asked to find the price it was forecasting from when it answers, shown as the dashed line inside its box in the picture below. All models except DeepSeek-R1 found it accurately.
Below are the details.
| Model | Range | Move | Confidence | Price it found | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Luna | $102.00–$130.00 | -12.9% to +11.1% | 78% | $117.05 | 30.7 | wrong |
| Grok 4.5 | $100.00–$140.00 | -14.7% to +19.4% | 40% | $117.28 | 79.0 | right |
| DeepSeek-R1 | $125.00–$175.00 | -17.5% to +15.5% | 48% | $151.53 | 0.4 | wrong |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro (Gemini — Flash) | $102.00–$132.00 | -12.7% to +13.0% | 60% | $116.78 | 80.1 | right |
| claude-opus-5 (Claude Opus 5) | $98.00–$130.00 | -16.1% to +11.3% | 38% | $116.77 | 31.6 | wrong |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro (Gemini — Pro) | $105.00–$135.00 | -10.1% to +15.6% | 65% | $116.78 | 82.1 | right |
How these models have done on SOXL over 7 days
This forecast is settled and is included in the statistics below. The remaining records are forecasts created before 2026-09-04 22:39 UTC. Only settled directional calls count toward accuracy.
| Model | Asked | Still open | No call | Called up | Called down | Right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grok 4.5 | 2 | — | 0 | 1 · 1 right | 1 · 1 right | 100% (2/2) |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro (Gemini — Pro) | 2 | — | 0 | 1 · 1 right | 1 · 1 right | 100% (2/2) |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro (Gemini — Flash) | 1 | — | 0 | 1 · 1 right | — | 100% (1/1) |
| GPT-5.6 Luna | 2 | — | 0 | — | 2 · 1 right | 50% (1/2) |
| DeepSeek-R1 | 2 | — | 0 | — | 2 · 1 right | 50% (1/2) |
| claude-opus-5 (Claude Opus 5) | 2 | — | 0 | — | 2 · 1 right | 50% (1/2) |
Every published SOXL forecast these models made over 7 days before this question was asked, on 2026-09-04 22:39 UTC, plus this settled forecast. Forecasts created after this question are excluded. Results reflect the settlements available when this article is generated. A day-ahead call and a week-ahead one are counted separately — they are different questions. Only settled forecasts are graded, so open + no call + up + down adds up to asked. “No call” is a range too centred on the price to be pointing anywhere. Accuracy counts only forecasts that have settled, and the count behind it is shown beside it — a single right call is not a 100% record.
What each model said
GPT-5.6 Luna
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) Market regime: SOXL closed September 4 at about $117.54, up roughly 10.1% on the day, after opening at $112.27 and trading between $112.27 and $117.49 according to Traders Union. Investing.com subsequently reported an after-hours quote of $117.05 at 21:08 UTC, but that was before the requested 22:39 UTC timestamp; therefore $117.05 is the best recent observable quote rather than an exact end-of-window print. Sources: Traders Union and Investing.com.
(2) Technical synthesis: The September 4 semiconductor rebound was exceptionally strong: Reuters reported semiconductor stocks gained about 3.4% even as the S&P 500 fell 0.38%, and Barron's reported the PHLX Semiconductor Index gained roughly 3%. SOXL therefore greatly outperformed the broad market during a session dominated by stronger-than-expected jobs data. Investing.com's latest technical snapshot also showed strong short-term momentum, while the daily and weekly trend classifications remained less constructive, indicating a powerful rebound inside a still-volatile larger trend. Sources: Reuters, Barron's and Investing.com.
(3) Price range: For the next seven days I estimate $102.00-$130.00. The lower boundary allows for a substantial retracement toward the September 3-4 breakout area if the semiconductor rally fades, while the upper boundary allows continuation of the current momentum toward the upper part of the recent multi-week range. SOXL's 3x daily structure and its recent $98.62-$117.49 move demonstrate that a much wider range than a normal ETF is appropriate. Source: Traders Union and historical SOXL data from StockAnalysis.
(4) Catalysts: The strongest immediate catalyst is the change in monetary-policy expectations after the August employment report: the U.S. economy added 162,000 jobs, well above consensus, and the probability of a September rate hike increased materially. Despite that headwind, semiconductor shares rallied strongly, suggesting sector-specific AI and memory demand is currently overpowering some macro pressure. The next major macro catalysts are the Federal Reserve meeting on September 15-16 and upcoming August inflation data. Sources: Reuters, AP and the Federal Reserve calendar.
(5) Counter-argument: The strongest bullish argument is the extraordinary relative strength of semiconductor stocks on September 4, with memory and AI-related names leading even while the broader indexes declined. The strongest bearish argument is that Treasury yields rose sharply after the jobs report, with the 10-year yield around 4.80%, which can pressure high-duration technology valuations; SOXL's leverage amplifies that risk. A reversal in the semiconductor index back toward its September 3 levels would materially weaken the bullish seven-day interpretation. Sources: Reuters and AP.
(6) Confidence: Confidence is 78%. The short-term bullish view is supported by the strongest evidence available: SOXL gained more than 10% in the September 4 session and semiconductors substantially outperformed the broader market. I keep the 30d signal NEUTRAL because higher yields, geopolitical energy risk and upcoming inflation/Fed events create meaningful uncertainty, while the 180d bias remains mildly bullish because AI-related semiconductor demand continues to support the sector's longer-term earnings backdrop.
Grok 4.5
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Friday 4 Sep 2026 close was $117.28 (up 9.87% from Thursday’s $106.74), day range $109.73-$118.18, volume ~63M, per MarketWatch, ChartExchange, Stock Alarm Pro, Robinhood and Investing.com. After-hours held near $116.78-$116.87. Prior closes: 3 Sep $106.74, 2 Sep $106.35.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: Strong rebound session for the 3x leveraged semiconductor ETF, reversing recent weakness with a near-10% gain. High intraday volatility persisted, consistent with the product’s extreme leverage and sensitivity to semiconductor sector moves.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to the $117.28 Friday close. Recent daily ranges of $8-15+ and 3x leverage imply potential weekly moves of 15-25% or more. Lower bound near $100 allows for a retest of the prior week’s lows; upper bound near $140 covers extension of the rebound toward earlier August levels. Range is wider on the upside reflecting the strong session momentum.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: No major semiconductor-specific earnings dominate the immediate 7-day horizon. Broader market direction, any sector news, and residual positioning after the sharp rebound remain the primary potential drivers.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: A sharp reversal or renewed risk-off in tech could push SOXL below $100; continued risk appetite could drive a break above $140. Sustained trade outside the stated range on volume would overturn the mild bullish lean.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Live Friday close is confirmed and the session was strongly positive, yet 3x leveraged ETFs produce large path-dependent noise over multi-day horizons; residual sector volatility and absence of stock-specific catalysts keep conviction moderate.
DeepSeek-R1
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) Current price and data sources: At the forecast window start (2026-09-04 22:39 UTC), SOXL closed the regular session at $151.53, up 4.54% on the day with volume of 36.76 million shares. The intraday range was approximately $130-$144 on a 1-day basis, while the 52-week range stands at $23.66-$302.00. After-hours trading shows $152.00, up 0.31%. I have anchored my range to the regular session close of $151.53, which is consistent with multiple sources including CNBC and Stockscan.io.
(2) Current market regime: SOXL is in a violent recovery rally from its September 3 low of $98.62, having surged over 53% in just two trading sessions. The September 4 rally of 4.54% was driven by a 3%+ surge in the PHLX Semiconductor Index, with strength across memory chips and AI-related names. The ETF remains 49.8% below its 52-week high of $302.00 set on June 21, 2026. Korean retail investors continue to be a dominant force, holding 27.1% of SOXL's ~$19.3 billion market cap ($5.24 billion) and driving $453 million in trading volume on September 1 alone. However, Blue Ocean ATS suspended real-time quotes for SOXL to Korean brokerages on September 1 due to SEC volume limits, which may reduce after-hours liquidity and increase volatility.
(3) Price range justification: I expect SOXL to trade between $125 and $175 over the next 7-day window. The lower bound of $125 is informed by the $130 intraday low from September 4 and the $128.32 level cited by other sources, with additional cushion for potential downside if the Fed hawkish repricing intensifies. The upper bound of $175 is informed by the recent rally momentum and the possibility of continued semiconductor strength if upcoming catalysts are favorable. The range is asymmetric-wider to the upside than the downside-because the ETF's extreme oversold condition from its 62.7% drawdown from the June peak creates the potential for a violent short-squeeze rally, while the 3× leverage amplifies moves in either direction.
(4) Scheduled catalysts inside the window: The key catalysts over the next 7 days are: (a) the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) reports due next week, which will be the final inflation data before the September 15-16 FOMC meeting-markets are pricing a 58-61% chance of a Fed rate hike on September 16; (b) the ongoing impact of Broadcom's September 2 earnings, which reported strong operating margins of 67.9%; (c) continued Korean retail flow dynamics, which have been a major intraday driver; and (d) geopolitical risk from US-Iran tensions and elevated oil prices, which could spark risk-off sentiment in speculative tech stocks.
(5) Strongest counter-argument: The bullish case is that SOXL is extremely oversold and due for a sustained mean-reversion rally. The ETF has attracted nearly $7 billion in net inflows over July-August despite the decline, and Goldman Sachs has raised its wafer fabrication equipment spending forecasts for 2026-2028. JPMorgan sees a summer buying opportunity in chip stocks. If next week's CPI/PPI data come in soft and Fed hike odds fade, SOXL's 3× leverage could produce a violent upside move toward $175-$200. A break above $175 would invalidate my bearish 7-day view and flip the signal to bullish.
(6) Confidence rationale: My confidence is 48%, reflecting the extreme volatility of a 3× leveraged ETF and the binary nature of the upcoming inflation data. The short-term rally is real and supported by sector strength, but the ETF remains 50% below its peak and faces resistance near the $170-$180 zone. The 7-day window includes two major inflation reports that will determine whether the Fed hikes on September 16. Korean retail flow dynamics and the Blue Ocean suspension add additional layers of uncertainty. I am more confident in the $125-$175 range than in the precise path within it, and I acknowledge that a violent move in either direction is possible given the ETF's 8.20 beta and extreme volatility.
Gemini 1.5 Pro (Gemini — Flash)
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) Data sourced from Google Finance and StockAnalysis.com confirms SOXL closed the regular trading session at $117.28 on Friday, September 4, 2026, surging 9.87% on strong volume. As of 22:35 UTC (18:35 EDT), after-hours trading settled near $116.78 following broad semiconductor accumulation.
(2) The market regime for semiconductor equities turned aggressively risk-on on Friday, breaking out of a week-long consolidation phase. After defending key support in the $98-$106 range earlier in the week, chip equities attracted significant institutional buying power.
(3) The 7-day price range of $102.00-$132.00 reflects the amplified beta and weekly volatility profile of a 3X leveraged ETF. The downside bound accommodates a potential retest of Friday's breakout level near $106-$102, while the upper bound targets key late-August supply overhead near $132.
(4) Inside this 7-day window, primary market catalysts include upcoming U.S. inflation data (CPI and PPI releases) and macro positioning ahead of the mid-September Federal Reserve policy meeting, both of which will dictate rate expectations for growth-heavy tech sectors.
(5) The strongest counter-argument to a continued bullish rally is profit-taking following Friday's massive ~10% gain, combined with volatility decay inherent to leveraged products. A macro headline surprise or hotter inflation reading could quickly prompt short-term traders to liquidate, dragging price back toward $102.
(6) Confidence is set at 60%. Although technical momentum clearly favors the bulls after Friday's strong breakout, 3X leveraged ETFs inherently carry wider outcome distributions and high sensitivity to macro news flow over a 7-day horizon.
claude-opus-5 (Claude Opus 5)
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) What I found, and where: SOXL closed Friday September 4 at $117.28, up $10.54 or 9.87% on the day, in a $109.73-$118.18 range on 63.2M shares - heavy volume against its recent pace. The last print before this 22:39 UTC baseline is the after-hours quote of $116.77 (-0.43%) timestamped 6:10pm EDT, about half an hour ahead of the window start, and that is my anchor rather than the 4pm close (stockanalysis.com). The 52-week range is $23.98-$302.00, leaving SOXL roughly 61% under its own 52-week high even after a near-10% session.
(2) Current market regime: semiconductors are being bought against the macro, not with it. August payrolls printed 162,000 versus forecasts near 65,000 and pushed September rate-hike odds to 60.2% from 49.4%, yet SOXX still rose 3% to $517.91, Intel gained 4% to $95.41, AMD 3% to $471.05 and NVIDIA 2% to $232.37 - described as capital rotating specifically into semis while the broader risk-on tape lagged, with QQQ essentially flat at +0.02% (247wallst.com). The broad index went the other way: SPY closed down 0.39% the same session. Underlying fundamentals are anchoring this - NVIDIA revenue growth of 105.8% year over year, AMD 50.1% with Data Center more than doubling (247wallst.com). One caveat on the macro figure: hike-odds reporting was inconsistent Friday, with TheStreet putting September hike pricing at roughly 50% after Waller's dovish comments against 247wallst.com's 60.2%, so treat the level as "rising and contested" rather than precise.
(3) Price range justification: from the $116.77 anchor, SOXL's recent effective daily sigma is in the 6-8% zone - Friday's high-to-low was 7.2% and Thursday's was 9.0% - and the window contains only four cash sessions, since Monday September 7 is Labor Day and US equity markets are closed. Four sessions at that sigma implies roughly a 13% one-standard-deviation envelope, which I widen toward 15-16% for the CPI print. The band is $98.00 to $130.00: about 16% of room below versus 11% above. The downward skew is deliberate and reflects three things - a 9.87% single-session advance that leaves near-term positioning stretched, a live inflation binary with hike odds already elevated, and the mechanical drag a 3x daily-reset product carries through high-realized-variance stretches.
(4) Catalysts inside the window: August CPI lands Thursday September 11 at 8:30am ET, roughly ten hours before this window closes, with PPI in the same stretch (BLS release schedule via usinflationcalculator.com). That is the dominant event, because it is the last major inflation input before the September 16 FOMC - a meeting that sits outside this window, so what trades here is the repricing of hike probability rather than its resolution. Secondary items are weekly jobless claims on September 10 and any pre-blackout Fed commentary. There is no scheduled bellwether semiconductor earnings release inside the window; Broadcom already reported on September 3.
(5) Strongest counter-argument and invalidation: Friday is direct evidence against my own call. The sector absorbed a hawkish payrolls surprise and rallied 3% at the index level anyway, which is exactly the behavior that precedes trend continuation rather than reversal, and Intel's 148% year-to-date run shows how much momentum capital is committed here. If that rotation persists, a benign CPI would likely send SOXL through $130 rather than toward $98. The MILD BEARISH 7d read is invalidated if CPI prints at or below consensus and hike odds retreat, or if SOXL holds above Friday's $109.73 low through the first two sessions of the week on continued sector inflows. It is worth stating plainly that this call rests on positioning and event asymmetry, not on any deterioration in semiconductor fundamentals - there is none visible in the data I found.
(6) Confidence justification: 38%, and low on purpose. The directional lean is modest and rests on mean-reversion after an outsized move plus an unresolved inflation print, both of which are probabilistic rather than structural, while Friday's tape actively argued the other way. The 4h and 1d horizons are NEUTRAL by construction, not judgment - cash markets are shut through the weekend and again for Labor Day, so there is no session to forecast. The 30d NEUTRAL reflects genuine two-sidedness: the September 16 hike decision and September seasonality against demonstrated rotation into the sector. The 180d MILD BULLISH rests on the underlying AI capex cycle, with the explicit caveat that a 3x daily-reset product does not compound the underlying's return cleanly - SOXL sitting 61% below its 52-week high while SOXX trades far closer to its own is that drag made visible.
Gemini 1.5 Pro (Gemini — Pro)
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) Data sourced from Robinhood and StockAnalysis confirms that SOXL closed the regular trading session at $117.28 on Friday, September 4, 2026, surging 9.87% on the day. As of 22:39 UTC, after-hours trading indicates the 3X leveraged ETF is hovering near $116.78.
(2) The market regime for semiconductor equities turned aggressively risk-on on Friday, breaking out of a short-term consolidation phase. After finding support near the $105-$110 range earlier in the week, chip equities attracted significant institutional buying power, signaling renewed confidence in technology growth prospects.
(3) The 7-day price range of $105.00-$135.00 reflects the amplified beta and high weekly volatility profile of a 3X leveraged ETF. The downside bound accommodates a potential retest of the recent breakout levels near $105, while the upper bound targets key supply overhead near $135 if bullish momentum continues to accelerate.
(4) Inside this 7-day window, primary market catalysts will include upcoming U.S. inflation data, such as CPI and PPI releases, and macroeconomic positioning ahead of the mid-September Federal Reserve policy meeting. These data points will heavily dictate rate expectations, which are critical for capital-intensive semiconductor firms.
(5) The strongest counter-argument to a continued bullish rally is profit-taking following Friday's massive near-10% surge, combined with the volatility decay inherent to leveraged products. A macro headline surprise or a hotter-than-expected inflation reading could quickly prompt short-term traders to liquidate, dragging the price back toward the $105 support zone.
(6) My confidence is 65%. Although technical momentum clearly favors the bulls following Friday's strong breakout, 3X leveraged ETFs inherently carry wider outcome distributions and extreme sensitivity to macroeconomic news flow over a multi-day horizon.
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