This is ForecastNest’s 1 day forecast for MSFT, created 2026-09-25 15:19 UTC. The window closed 2026-09-28 15:19 UTC, when MSFT closed at $509.77, down 1.0% from $514.67 when the forecast was made. It traded between $502.22 and $519.40 along the way (-2.4% to +0.9%).
Prediction window: Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.
Prediction time: 2026-09-25 15:19 UTC (9/25/2026, 11:19:33 AM EDT).
Valid until: 2026-09-28 15:19 UTC (9/28/2026, 11:19:33 AM EDT). Target session: 2026-09-28 (New York); During session. Lead time to expiry: 72 elapsed hours. Timing: Regular session. Based on stored prediction time, not verified model execution time.
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5 of the 7 models called a direction, and 3 of those calls were right. Each model is also asked to find the price it was forecasting from when it answers, shown as the dashed line inside its box in the picture below. All models except GPT-5.6 Sol found it accurately.
Below are the details.
| Model | Range | Move | Confidence | Price it found | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | $488.00–$506.00 | -1.7% to +1.9% | 52% | $496.47 | 3.0 | wrong |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | $512.00–$518.00 | -0.5% to +0.7% | 75% | $514.64 | 51.6 | no call |
| Perplexity | $503.00–$518.00 | -1.6% to +1.3% | 53% | $511.36 | 80.2 | right |
| Grok 4.5 | $502.00–$525.00 | -2.3% to +2.1% | 45% | $514.00 | 52.4 | no call |
| Claude Opus 5.5 | $505.00–$526.00 | -2.2% to +1.9% | 50% | $516.40 | 79.7 | right |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | $498.00–$526.00 | -3.5% to +1.9% | 64% | $515.94 | 82.4 | right |
| DeepSeek | $505.00–$525.00 | -1.7% to +2.2% | 65% | $513.77 | 31.2 | wrong |
How these models have done on MSFT over 1 day
This forecast is settled and is included in the statistics below. The remaining records are forecasts created before 2026-09-25 15:19 UTC. Only settled directional calls count toward accuracy.
| Model | Asked | Still open | No call | Called up | Called down | Right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | 6 | — | 4 | 2 · 2 right | — | 100% (2/2) |
| Perplexity | 1 | — | 0 | — | 1 · 1 right | 100% (1/1) |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | 6 | — | 1 | 2 · 1 right | 3 · 2 right | 60% (3/5) |
| Grok 4.5 | 5 | — | 3 | 2 · 1 right | — | 50% (1/2) |
| DeepSeek | 5 | — | 0 | 4 · 1 right | 1 · 1 right | 40% (2/5) |
| Claude Opus 5.5 | 5 | — | 2 | 1 · 0 right | 2 · 1 right | 33% (1/3) |
| GPT-5.6 Sol | 6 | — | 1 | 4 · 0 right | 1 · 0 right | 0% (0/5) |
Every published MSFT forecast over 1 day before this question was asked, on 2026-09-25 15:19 UTC, plus this settled forecast. Forecasts created after this question are excluded. Results reflect the settlements available when this article is generated. A day-ahead call and a week-ahead one are counted separately — they are different questions. Only settled forecasts are graded, so open + no call + up + down adds up to asked. “No call” is a range too centred on the price to be pointing anywhere. Accuracy counts only forecasts that have settled, and the count behind it is shown beside it — a single right call is not a 100% record.
What each model said
GPT-5.6 Sol
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) What I found: The freshest MSFT price I could verify close to the requested September 25 window was Investing.com's pre-market quote of $496.47, following the September 24 regular-session close of $497.93. Yahoo Finance independently reports the September 24 close at $497.93, with that session trading from $491.22 to $498.90. Because I could not retrieve an exchange-timestamped regular-session trade at exactly 15:19 UTC, I classify data_access as partial and use $496.47 as the best verified near-window anchor rather than presenting it as an exact live trade. Sources: https://www.investing.com/equities/microsoft-corp-historical-data and https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/
(2) Market regime: MSFT is trading in a broad consolidation around $490-$510 after a strong multi-month advance. Recent closes were $501.61 on September 21, $498.00 on September 22, $500.59 on September 23 and $497.93 on September 24, showing repeated reversals rather than persistent momentum. The stock remains well above its late-August lows but has repeatedly struggled around $508-$510, so I read the immediate regime as neutral with a mild bearish tilt over several hours and a still-constructive longer-term backdrop. Sources: https://ca.investing.com/equities/microsoft-corp-historical-data and https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/MSFT/chart/
(3) Price range: The $488-$506 forecast envelope gives roughly 1.7% downside and 1.9% upside from $496.47, intentionally close to symmetric because the one-day directional evidence is weak. Recent sessions have commonly covered $7-$15 intraday ranges: September 22 traded $493.65-$508.50, September 23 traded $495.88-$509.44 and September 24 traded $491.22-$498.90. The $488-$491 area corresponds to repeatedly tested September support, while $505-$510 has recently acted as overhead resistance. Yahoo Finance reports a 5-year monthly beta of approximately 1.11. Sources: https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/ and https://ca.investing.com/equities/microsoft-corp-historical-data
(4) Catalysts inside the window: There is no Microsoft earnings release scheduled during this one-day forecast window; Investing.com lists the next earnings report for October 27, 2026. Near-term sentiment is instead tied to AI and cloud expectations. MarketWatch reported this week that Jefferies views Microsoft 365 and expanding Copilot monetization as an underappreciated AI growth driver, while Reuters reported continued competitive pressure in AI infrastructure and local computing as Apple promotes lower-cost alternatives to cloud-based AI workloads. Sources: https://ca.investing.com/equities/microsoft-corp and https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-is-the-most-underappreciated-driver-for-microsoft-according-to-one-analyst-f9a5e4eb and https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/with-new-macs-apple-aims-take-microsoft-nvidia-rush-lower-ai-costs-2026-09-22/
(5) Counter-argument and invalidation: The bullish counter-argument is that MSFT has repeatedly attracted demand near the low-$490s and remains supported by Azure, Microsoft 365 and Copilot growth expectations; a sustained move through roughly $505-$510 would show that buyers have regained short-term control. The bearish case strengthens if price breaks decisively below approximately $491, because that would remove support that held on September 18, September 21 and September 24 and could expose the late-August to early-September trading region below $490. Sources: https://ca.investing.com/equities/microsoft-corp-historical-data and https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/MSFT/chart/
(6) Confidence: 52% reflects the absence of a strong one-day directional edge. MSFT's recent sessions alternate between advances and declines, price remains near the middle of its September range, and there is no major scheduled company catalyst inside the forecast window. The longer-term AI and cloud thesis remains constructive, but the inability to verify an exact 15:19 UTC regular-session quote and the stock's recent range-bound behavior keep conviction low.
Gemini 1.5 Pro
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) Live pricing sourced via Google Search from NASDAQ and financial data platforms places MSFT at $514.64 as of 15:20 UTC on September 25, 2026. This reflects a +3.3% surge from the prior session's close of $497.93.
(2) The current market regime is highly momentum-driven and bullish. Buyers are aggressively rewarding Microsoft following a recent Stifel upgrade (Hold to Buy, $575 target) and today's launch of an upgraded Copilot assistant featuring new enterprise tools like "FinOps for AI."
(3) The 1-day price range of $512.00-$518.00 captures today's elevated volatility. The breakout above $510 establishes a new intraday support floor near $512, while near-term exhaustion and the $520 psychological level cap the immediate upside potential around $518.
(4) The primary driver over the next 24 hours is the ongoing digestion of the Copilot product launch and institutional positioning around the recently announced 8% dividend increase to $0.98 per share, both of which support structural bids.
(5) The main risk to this bullish view is Friday afternoon profit-taking. A rapid 3%+ intra-day rally often invites closing-bell de-risking; if broader tech indices fade, MSFT could easily retrace below the $510 level, invalidating the short-term upward bias.
(6) Confidence is 75%. While the fundamental catalysts and analyst upgrades provide a strong structural tailwind, projecting further upside on a Friday afternoon after a significant morning gap carries inherent execution risk.
Perplexity
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) Market regime: MSFT is trading near $511.36 around the requested 15:19 UTC window. Current-session data shows an opening price near $499.04, a low near $497.25, and a high near $513.67, with the stock up approximately 2.7% to 3.6% in available September 25 reporting.
(2) Technical synthesis: The session has produced a strong upside impulse from the prior close near $497.93, placing price above the recent $500 area and near the day's high. That momentum supports bullish 1h and 4h signals, but the size of the opening move also raises the probability of intraday consolidation or profit-taking rather than a uniformly higher close.
(3) Price range: I estimate a one-day range of $503-$518. The lower bound allows for a partial retracement toward the breakout area around $500-$505, while the upper bound extends modestly beyond the reported $513.67 session high if momentum persists. The range is wider than a normal quiet session because the observed intraday move is already unusually large.
(4) Catalysts: Microsoft has recently highlighted AI-ready cloud infrastructure in India, new security and AI-agent capabilities, and broader Copilot-related partner updates. The next estimated quarterly earnings date is October 28, 2026, outside the one-day window, so the immediate catalyst is more likely to be sector-wide AI sentiment or continued interpretation of Microsoft's cloud and AI execution than a scheduled company event.
(5) Counter-argument: The strongest downside case is that the September 25 surge is an opening gap or momentum overshoot that reverses toward the prior close, particularly if the broader technology complex weakens. A sustained move back below approximately $503 would weaken the immediate bullish interpretation; continued trade above $513.67 would instead support an extension toward the upper range boundary.
(6) Confidence: Confidence is 53% because current-session price data supports a clear short-term upside impulse, but the one-day horizon remains sensitive to gap retracement and broad technology-sector volatility. The 30d signal is neutral because the available evidence confirms strong recent momentum but does not establish that the move represents a durable medium-term trend change.
Grok 4.5
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Live quotes from CNBC, StockAnalysis, Motley Fool, TECHi and StockMonitor as of market hours 25 Sep 2026 show MSFT trading near $513-$516 (prev close $497.93, day range so far ~$497.25-$517.48, up ~3%). Technicals from TECHi, FXEmpire and Trendlyne indicate RSI ~54-62, price well above 20/50/200-day MAs (~$495-$475-$430), ATR ~$11. Recent news includes Stifel upgrade to Buy with $575 target citing Azure acceleration and Copilot traction (Sep 23), plus ongoing AI/cloud momentum from prior earnings.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: Constructive short-term momentum following a strong gap-up session. Longer-term structure remains bullish on Azure and AI monetization, with the stock recovering from earlier 2026 lag relative to peers. Near-term tape shows buyers in control after the upgrade-driven move.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to the live ~$514 print. ATR of ~$11 and the expanded daily range support a one-day band of roughly $502-$525. Downside room to the prior close/open zone near $498-$502; upside extension toward recent session highs and psychological $520-$525. The range is skewed slightly higher to reflect the positive momentum and MA alignment rather than pure symmetry.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: No company-specific events on 25-26 Sep. Next earnings estimated around 27-28 Oct. Near-term noise possible from broader market or follow-through on the Stifel upgrade and AI headlines, but nothing scheduled that is MSFT-specific within the 1-day window.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: Profit-taking after the sharp up-move or a broader tech risk-off could push price back through $505 toward the mid-$490s, flipping the short-term bias neutral-to-bearish. A decisive close above $520 on volume would reinforce continuation and invalidate a range-bound view.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: 45% reflects solid live price action and supportive technicals plus the fresh analyst upgrade, but one-day equity noise and the possibility of mean-reversion after a 3%+ gap keep conviction moderate rather than high.
Claude Opus 5.5
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) What I found, and where: StockAnalysis (https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/msft/forecast/) is stamped Sep 25, 2026, 10:56 AM EDT (14:56 UTC), with the market open. It gives an average target of $576.4, 11.61% above current, and a low target of $440, 14.80% below current. Both percentages back out the same price of about $516.4, which I use as current_price 23 minutes before the window start. TradingKey (https://www.tradingkey.com/news/market-movers/262186969-market-movers-msft-20260925) reports that MSFT opened up 3.21% on Sep 25. The prior session closed at 497.93, down 0.53% (CNN, https://www.cnn.com/markets/stocks/MSFT), after a 491.22-496.98 range and a 500.59 close on Sep 23 (CNBC, https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/MSFT; MacroTrends). So MSFT is up roughly 3.7% on the day. The data is dated inside the window, so data_access is live, although my exact 15:19 UTC print is inferred rather than quoted.
(2) Current market regime: Today's gap-up breaks MSFT out of a September consolidation. TradingView commentary (https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NASDAQ-MSFT/) described a symmetrical triangle between about 491 and 500. It flagged 513.73-517.78 as the key resistance band, with a daily close above 517.78 needed to confirm continuation. Price is now inside that band. TradingKey attributes the move to institutional optimism about AI and cloud, but I could not confirm a specific news trigger. The same article lists headwinds: capex above $50B in Q1 FY27, a 23.2% drop in quarterly free cash flow, a Sep 23 Windows 11 update breaking Always On VPN, and CFO Amy Hood selling about $43.3M of stock.
(3) Price range justification: TradingView lists daily volatility near 1.9%. I widen that for a gap day and for weekend exposure, since the window runs from Friday late morning to Monday late morning. The range $505.00-$526.00 is about -2.2% / +1.9% from $516.40, with a slight downside tilt on purpose. The upper bound sits just beyond the 517.78 one-month high (Investing.com history, https://www.investing.com/equities/microsoft-corp-historical-data) and allows a modest extension if the breakout holds. The lower bound allows a partial fade of today's gap, which is common when a move stalls at resistance. A full gap fill to about 498 is possible but lies outside my central range.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: Microsoft has no earnings in the window; the next report is Oct 27, 2026 (TradingView; CNBC shows 10/27/2026 as an estimate). Possible drivers are follow-through or fade of today's gap into the Friday close, quarter-end rebalancing before Sep 30, weekend AI and OpenAI-related headlines (CNBC notes recent Suleyman comments on OpenAI), and further reporting on the enterprise patch problems. I have not verified any macro release inside the window.
(5) Strongest counter-argument and invalidation: My neutral 1-day call could be wrong in either direction. If MSFT closes above 517.78 and holds, momentum and the Strong Buy consensus (55 analysts, $576.4 average target per StockAnalysis) could push it toward the mid-520s or higher within a day. If instead the unexplained gap-up fades on capex, free-cash-flow and insider-selling concerns, a slide back toward 500 is plausible. A sustained break outside 505-526 would invalidate the range.
(6) Why confidence is 50%: The range is about 1.1 sigma wide for a normal day, but today is not normal. Gap days have fatter tails, I could not verify what caused the jump, the window includes a weekend, and current_price is inferred from target percentages rather than a direct quote. The 7d and 30d signals are mildly bullish because price is breaking out of a month-long consolidation into the Oct 27 earnings run-up. Short horizons stay neutral because a gap sitting at resistance is roughly as likely to extend as to retrace.
Muse Spark 1.1
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Finnhub MSFT Sep 25 shows current 515.935, open 499.035, high 517.48, low 497.25, previous close 497.93, change +18.005 (+3.616%). MarketBeat Sep 25 notes MSFT opened at 497.93 Friday, 12-month low 349.20 high 553.72, 50-day MA 475.48, 200-day 425.54. American Market News Sep 25 notes Melius Research raised projected level from 595.00 to 625.00 on Sep 25, and average target 630.76 Moderate Buy per MarketBeat. Hexn Sep 25 06:00 notes MSFT at $498 with neutral 50% sentiment.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: Technology leading US sectors, XLK +0.82% strongest Sep 25, S&P 500 up 0.46% to 7666.60 per Morningstar. MSFT 5-day +5.23%, 1-month +4.93%, 6-month +39.05%, YTD +6.68% per Finnhub. Beta 1.06. AI hyperscaler thesis intact, Azure growth driving forward P/E reasonable at 28.2x per Finnhub. Market in risk-on with Russell 2000 outperforming, but inflation expectations rising to 4.6% 1-year could pressure multiples.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to live 515.935 high of day. Using intraday range 497.25-517.48 (20.23 range) and 3.6% daily move, implying elevated volatility. Lower bound 498.00 aligns with previous close 497.93 and open 499.035 gap support, upper bound 526.00 aligns with high 517.48 plus extension toward 52-week high 553.72 and analyst target 625. Range slightly skewed down (17.94 below vs 10.06 above) to account for profit-taking after +3.6% spike, but overall bullish bias due to target raise.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: No earnings in next 24h, Q2 already past. Catalyst is analyst action: Melius target raise to 625 on Sep 25 itself, likely to drive momentum into Sep 26 session. Also sector-wide AI infrastructure demand, and Microsoft behind data center proposal in Michigan per American Market News Sep 25, indicating capex expansion. No Fed meeting in window.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: Bear case is MSFT flat YTD per Motley Fool Sep 25 note, valuation at 28x earnings and overbought near high 517.48, with high 553.72 resistance. Rising yields (TLT -0.15% IEF -0.07% Sep 25) could compress growth multiples. If S&P pulls back after Monday bounce per CWS Review, MSFT could retest 497.93 previous close. Invalidation below 498 gap fill would signal reversal, above 526 would require strong follow-through volume.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Confidence 64% moderate-high based on live Finnhub intraday quote and contemporaneous analyst target raise Sep 25 from credible source Melius. Data access live, but 1-day direction after large +3.6% move is noisy, so not higher. Technicals show price above 50-day 475 and 200-day 425, supporting bullish trend.
DeepSeek
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) What I found: Microsoft is trading at $513.77 as of 10:21 ET on September 25, 2026, according to Dow Jones Market Data (source: Morningstar, https://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/202609253983/microsoft-on-track-for-highest-close-since-november-2025-data-talk). The stock is up $15.84 or 3.18% on the session, on pace for its highest close since November 4, 2025. The intraday high was $517.48, the highest level since August 28, 2026. The rally was driven by the company's biggest Copilot overhaul, which introduced new capabilities including a coding tool, an always-on AI agent called Autopilot, and FinOps for AI spend management (source: Livemint, https://www.livemint.com/market/stock-market-news/microsoft-jump-4-after-biggest-copilot-overhaul-stock-eyes-first-weekly-gain-in-four-weeks-11790347711410.html).
(2) The current market regime is hawkish Fed policy with the 10-year Treasury yield above 5.17%, which pressures high-multiple growth stocks. However, Microsoft is showing relative strength due to the AI product catalyst. The S&P 500 is modestly higher on the session, and Microsoft is the best performer in the Dow Jones Industrial Average today (source: Morningstar). The stock has been rangebound between roughly $487 and $507 for several weeks, and today's move represents a breakout above that range (source: Investing.com, https://in.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/microsoft-coils-in-487507-range-live-levels-93CH-5599962).
(3) Price range justification: I am anchoring to the current price of $513.77 and the intraday range of $505-$517.48. The stock has significant resistance around $518, which is the level it needs to break to continue the overall move (source: FX Empire via Yahoo Finance, https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/apple-microsoft-amazon-forecast-tech-131824012.html). On the downside, the breakout level around $507 would be the first support. A one-session range of $505.00-$525.00 reflects roughly a 1.7% downside and 2.2% upside move, consistent with the stock's recent volatility and the catalyst-driven momentum. The range is skewed slightly to the upside because the Copilot announcement is a substantive catalyst that could attract continued buying interest.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: No scheduled earnings or macro events for Microsoft itself within the one-day window. The next estimated earnings date is October 28, 2026 (source: StockAnalysis.com, https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/msft/). However, the Copilot rollout through the Frontier programme is ongoing and could generate additional positive news flow. There is no confirmed product launch or regulatory decision inside the window. The market will also be watching for any follow-through from the Stifel upgrade to Buy on September 22, with a $575 projected level (source: Nasdaq, https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/stifel-upgrades-microsoft-buy-hold).
(5) The strongest counter-argument: The stock has already gapped up significantly on the session, and the Copilot overhaul, while substantive, may not translate into immediate revenue acceleration. The stock remains rangebound on a longer timeframe, and the $518 resistance level has capped previous rallies. Rising Treasury yields continue to pressure equity valuations. If the broader market turns risk-off or if the yield spike continues, Microsoft could give back some of today's gains. A close below $507 would invalidate the near-term breakout thesis.
(6) Why confidence is 65%: The evidence for a mildly bullish bias is supported by live intraday data, a clear product catalyst, strong analyst consensus (Strong Buy, average target $576.40), and the stock's relative strength versus the broader market. However, the stock has already moved significantly, and the rangebound technical structure introduces uncertainty about whether the breakout will hold. A confidence of 65% reflects a real directional conviction but acknowledges the risk of a pullback after a large intraday move.
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