This is ForecastNest’s 1 day forecast for SPY, created 2026-09-25 15:22 UTC. The window closed 2026-09-28 15:22 UTC, when SPY closed at $765.09, down 0.4% from $768.53 when the forecast was made. It traded between $763.72 and $772.28 along the way (-0.6% to +0.5%).
Prediction window: Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.
Prediction time: 2026-09-25 15:22 UTC (9/25/2026, 11:22:06 AM EDT).
Valid until: 2026-09-28 15:22 UTC (9/28/2026, 11:22:06 AM EDT). Target session: 2026-09-28 (New York); During session. Lead time to expiry: 72 elapsed hours. Timing: Regular session. Based on stored prediction time, not verified model execution time.
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None of the 7 models called a direction. Each model is also asked to find the price it was forecasting from when it answers, shown as the dashed line inside its box in the picture below. Every model found it accurately.
Below are the details.
| Model | Range | Move | Confidence | Price it found | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | $762.00–$776.00 | -1.0% to +0.9% | 54% | $769.40 | 54.1 | no call |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | $766.00–$772.00 | -0.4% to +0.4% | 65% | $768.89 | 53.7 | no call |
| Perplexity | $763.00–$772.00 | -0.6% to +0.6% | 51% | $767.77 | 54.4 | no call |
| Grok 4.5 | $762.00–$775.00 | -0.8% to +0.8% | 42% | $768.50 | 53.6 | no call |
| Claude Opus 5.5 | $756.00–$778.50 | -1.5% to +1.4% | 55% | $767.40 | 53.5 | no call |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | $762.00–$777.00 | -1.0% to +0.9% | 58% | $769.96 | 54.2 | no call |
| DeepSeek | $762.00–$777.00 | -1.0% to +1.0% | 62% | $769.49 | 54.4 | no call |
How these models have done on SPY over 1 day
This forecast is settled and is included in the statistics below. The remaining records are forecasts created before 2026-09-25 15:22 UTC. Only settled directional calls count toward accuracy.
| Model | Asked | Still open | No call | Called up | Called down | Right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kimi | 1 | — | 0 | 1 · 1 right | — | 100% (1/1) |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | 10 | — | 6 | 1 · 0 right | 3 · 2 right | 50% (2/4) |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | 10 | — | 7 | 1 · 0 right | 2 · 1 right | 33% (1/3) |
| GPT-6 | 3 | — | 0 | — | 3 · 1 right | 33% (1/3) |
| DeepSeek | 9 | — | 5 | 1 · 1 right | 3 · 0 right | 25% (1/4) |
| Claude Opus 5.5 | 10 | — | 7 | — | 3 · 0 right | 0% (0/3) |
| GPT-5.6 Sol | 7 | — | 5 | 1 · 0 right | 1 · 0 right | 0% (0/2) |
| Claude Sonnet 4.5 | 1 | — | 0 | 1 · 0 right | — | 0% (0/1) |
| Grok 4.5 | 7 | — | 7 | — | — | — |
| Perplexity | 1 | — | 1 | — | — | — |
Every published SPY forecast over 1 day before this question was asked, on 2026-09-25 15:22 UTC, plus this settled forecast. Forecasts created after this question are excluded. Results reflect the settlements available when this article is generated. A day-ahead call and a week-ahead one are counted separately — they are different questions. Only settled forecasts are graded, so open + no call + up + down adds up to asked. “No call” is a range too centred on the price to be pointing anywhere. Accuracy counts only forecasts that have settled, and the count behind it is shown beside it — a single right call is not a 100% record.
What each model said
GPT-5.6 Sol
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) What I found: I could not retrieve a clean SPY trade timestamped exactly at the requested 2026-09-25 15:22 UTC baseline. Reuters reported at 9:59 a.m. ET that the S&P 500 was up 0.29% at 7,726.62; applying that same index move to SPY's verified September 24 close near $767.18 implies approximately $769.40, which I use as the best baseline estimate. A later Yahoo Finance quote showed SPY at $768.20 at 1:17 p.m. ET, confirming that the ETF remained near this area but had faded somewhat later in the session. Sources: https://www.reuters.com/business/wall-st-futures-gain-ai-enthusiasm-eases-worries-over-higher-oil-prices-yields-2026-09-25/ and https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY/history/
(2) Market regime: The index is near record territory but breadth is weak and leadership is concentrated. Reuters reported that eight of eleven S&P 500 sectors were declining around 9:59 a.m. ET even as the headline index gained 0.29%, largely because technology was up about 1%. Reuters also reported that nine of eleven S&P sectors were negative for September and the equal-weight index was down about 4% for the month, indicating that mega-cap strength is masking softer underlying participation. Sources: https://www.reuters.com/business/wall-st-futures-gain-ai-enthusiasm-eases-worries-over-higher-oil-prices-yields-2026-09-25/ and https://www.reuters.com/business/wall-st-week-ahead-jobs-report-inflation-data-test-us-rate-path-economic-2026-09-25/
(3) Price range: I use $762-$776 as the one-day envelope, giving modestly more downside than upside from the approximately $769.40 baseline because rising yields and narrowing breadth offset positive AI sentiment. SPY traded between $763.25 and $768.95 on September 24, $766.50 and $773.05 on September 23, and $772.57 and $775.14 on September 22. The $762-$764 area therefore represents nearby demonstrated support, while $773-$776 contains several recent highs and resistance tests. Sources: https://www.investing.com/etfs/spdr-s-p-500-historical-data and https://www.financecharts.com/etfs/SPY/summary/price
(4) Catalysts inside the window: The immediate macro drivers are Treasury yields, oil prices and Federal Reserve expectations rather than scheduled corporate events for the ETF itself. Reuters reported the 10-year Treasury yield near 5.1%, Brent crude above $100 per barrel and market-implied odds of at least a 25-basis-point Fed increase in October at about 64%. Fed policymakers including John Williams, Jeffrey Schmid and Beth Hammack were also scheduled to speak later September 25, creating potential headline volatility. Source: https://www.reuters.com/business/wall-st-futures-gain-ai-enthusiasm-eases-worries-over-higher-oil-prices-yields-2026-09-25/
(5) Counter-argument and invalidation: The strongest bullish counter-argument is persistent AI-driven demand for large-cap technology shares, which has repeatedly supported the capitalization-weighted S&P 500 despite weak breadth. Reuters reported technology leading the market on September 25 and global equity funds receiving their strongest inflows since early July. A sustained move above approximately $773-$775 would suggest that the market is overcoming rate and oil pressure; a break below approximately $763 would indicate that breadth deterioration and higher yields are exerting greater influence than my neutral base case assumes. Sources: https://www.reuters.com/business/wall-st-futures-gain-ai-enthusiasm-eases-worries-over-higher-oil-prices-yields-2026-09-25/ and https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-flows-graphic-2026-09-25/
(6) Confidence: 54% reflects weak directional conviction. Positive technology momentum, continued fund inflows and proximity to record highs are balanced by a 10-year Treasury yield above 5%, elevated oil prices, expectations for additional Fed tightening and deteriorating market breadth. I also could not retrieve an exact SPY trade at 15:22 UTC, so the baseline price is an index-linked estimate rather than an exchange-timestamped SPY print.
Gemini 1.5 Pro
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) Live pricing sourced via Google Search from TradingView (https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/AMEX-SPY/) and options data indicates SPY trading at $768.89 as of 15:20 UTC on September 25, 2026.
(2) The current market regime remains structurally bullish, supported by cooling inflation concerns and continued AI-driven momentum, which has pushed the broader market near all-time highs.
(3) The 1-day price range of $766.00-$772.00 is anchored to recent intraday volatility and options market expectations, where 0-DTE pricing implies an expected move of roughly ±$4.40.
(4) There are no major macroeconomic data prints scheduled for the remainder of the Friday session, leaving price action primarily dictated by intraday technical flows and institutional positioning ahead of the weekend.
(5) The primary counter-argument to short-term upside is Friday afternoon de-risking and profit-taking after the recent rally. Any sudden geopolitical headlines could trigger a rotation out of equities, breaking the $766 support floor.
(6) Confidence is set at 65% because while the macro trend is solid and options positioning is clearly defined, single-day forecasts on a Friday inherently carry execution risk due to weekend hedging and passive algorithmic flows.
Perplexity
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) Market regime: SPY is trading near $767.77 around the requested 15:22 UTC window. Available September 25 intraday data places the ETF near $767-$768, while the prior regular-session close was reported at $767.18 after a September 24 range of $763.25-$768.95.
(2) Technical synthesis: The broader index backdrop is constructive over longer horizons, with SPY reported up approximately 12.5% since the beginning of 2026 and the S&P 500 near record territory. The immediate tape is much less directional: price is near the prior close, and current reporting describes stocks as steady or only modestly higher as AI optimism offsets elevated oil prices and Treasury-yield concerns.
(3) Price range: I estimate a one-day range of $763-$772. The lower bound aligns with the prior session's low and sits near the lower edge of the options-implied expected move; the upper bound is below the reported expected-move ceiling of $774.21 but allows for a retest of the current session's high area. Options pricing for September 25 implied an expected move of approximately plus or minus $4.43 from the prior close, supporting a moderately wide but not extreme range.
(4) Catalysts: No SPY-specific scheduled corporate event applies because the ETF tracks the S&P 500. The key one-day drivers are macro and index-level: oil prices, Treasury yields, inflation expectations, Middle East developments, and continued concentration of performance in large technology and AI stocks. Reuters reported that AI optimism was offsetting concerns about high oil prices and rising yields, while later market coverage described the S&P 500 as little changed.
(5) Counter-argument: A renewed bond selloff or oil-price spike could push SPY through the recent $763 area and produce a downside extension below the forecast range. Conversely, a sustained move above the current-session area near $768-$769, supported by easing yields and continued technology strength, would invalidate the neutral near-term view and make a test of $772 or higher more plausible.
(6) Confidence: Confidence is 51% because the price is current and options-implied volatility provides a useful one-day framework, but the index is being pulled in opposite directions by strong technology leadership and macroeconomic risk. The neutral 1h and 1d signals reflect the narrow current-session movement; mildly bullish longer signals reflect the strong year-to-date trend rather than a firm prediction for the next trading day.
Grok 4.5
Result: no call
View full reasoning
Heuristically extracted from AI response
Claude Opus 5.5
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) What I found, and where: Investing.com (https://www.investing.com/etfs/spdr-s-p-500) has a snapshot dated Sep 25, 2026 with SPY at 767.38 against a previous close of 767.81. It shows an intraday range of 763.25-768.95, a pre-market print of 764.41, and a 52-week range of 629.28-779.37. FRED (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500) shows the S&P 500 closed at 7,704.13 on Sep 24. Bloomberg's live blog at 13:40 UTC Sep 25 (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-24/stock-market-today-dow-s-p-live-updates) reports stocks rebounding and the S&P 500 extending the week's advance. In that report, Brent fell to $105 on hopes of a Strait of Hormuz revival, Treasury yields eased from multi-decade highs, and a volatility gauge was on track for its biggest weekly jump in over a year. The Investing.com quote is intraday Sep 25, but I cannot confirm it was taken at exactly 15:22 UTC, so data_access is partial. I use $767.40 as current_price.
(2) Current market regime: The backdrop is macro-driven and jittery rather than trending. Oil near $100+ and Treasury yields at multi-decade highs have put Fed rate hikes on the table. Yahoo Finance (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY/history/) notes the Fed raised rates to 3.75%-4% and that oil is hovering around $100 with Middle East tensions unresolved. Even so, SPY sits only about 1.5% below its 52-week high of 779.37. Investing.com's Aug 25-Sep 25 history (https://www.investing.com/etfs/spdr-s-p-500-historical-data) shows a tight one-month range of 749.60-775.30 averaging 765.52. Price is near the middle of that range, and today it is flat to slightly lower despite the favourable oil and yield headlines.
(3) Price range justification: Realized volatility is elevated, with the volatility gauge posting its biggest weekly jump in more than a year (Bloomberg). I assume a daily 1-sigma move of about 1.0-1.2% for SPY, then widen for weekend risk from oil, geopolitics and rates, since the window runs from Friday late morning to Monday late morning. The range $756.00-$778.50 is about -1.5% / +1.4%, roughly symmetric on purpose because I have no directional view. The top sits just below the 52-week high of 779.37. The bottom is above the one-month low of 749.60 and allows a break of today's 763.25 intraday low.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: The main drivers I can identify are oil and Strait of Hormuz headlines, Treasury yield moves, and continued Fed commentary. Yahoo Finance notes a week heavy with Fed speakers and a state visit from Xi Jinping. Quarter-end rebalancing ahead of Sep 30 could add flows, and pension selling of equities after strong gains is a common pattern at quarter end. I have not verified a specific data release inside the window, and weekend geopolitical news is the largest unscheduled risk.
(5) Strongest counter-argument and invalidation: The bull case is that falling oil and yields ease the fear of Fed hikes and that SPY retests or exceeds the 779.37 high. A move above about 775 (the one-month high) would signal that. The bear case is that the volatility spike reflects real stress from multi-decade-high yields, oil above $100 and a hawkish Fed, and that a weekend oil shock breaks the one-month range lower. A move below about 760 and then 749.60 would signal that. A sustained move outside 756-778.5 would invalidate the range.
(6) Why confidence is 55%: The range is about 1.3 sigma wide under normal volatility, which would nominally contain about 80% of outcomes. I haircut that because volatility is rising sharply, the window includes a weekend with live geopolitical and oil risk, and my current_price is not stamped exactly at the window start. All horizons are neutral: a range-bound index facing opposing macro forces (easing oil versus hawkish rates) gives no reliable directional edge.
Muse Spark 1.1
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: SPY detailed data from FinancialContent shows price 769.96, open 766.25, 3M +25.57 (3.44%) as of Sep 25. Stocktwits SPY history shows Sep 24 close 769.11, Sep 23 774.61, Sep 22 774.72, Sep 21 765.35. Morningstar Data Talk reports S&P 500 rises 0.46% to 7666.60 on Sep 27 snapshot, off 1.70% from record 7798.99 Aug 13. FT Portfolios weekly Sep 25 shows S&P 500 6643.70 -0.3% weekly, indicating mixed reporting but FinancialContent 769.96 is most recent live quote. CWS Market Review Sep 25 notes S&P 500 bounced Monday then pulled back later in week, quiet stretch.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: US equities in choppy uptrend with small-caps outperforming. Russell 2000 +3.85% September per Hightower, S&P YTD +13.72%. Technology leading +0.82% Sep 25, financials flat, energy -0.26% per Kalkine. Inflation expectations up: 1-year 4.6% vs 4.0% prior per TradingView Sep 2026, 5-year 3.4% vs 3.3%. Yields uptick pressuring TLT -0.15% IEF -0.07% per CVJ.AI. Fed funds 3.50-3.75% restrictive, market debating hike. Regime is range-bound near highs, not trending strongly, with sector rotation underlying.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to live 769.96. Using recent daily range from Stocktwits ~765-774 (9 point range) and weekly -0.3% move. Lower bound 762.00 aligns with Sep 21 low 765.35 minus buffer and 50-day support, upper bound 777.00 aligns with Sep 23 high 774.61 plus extension toward record 7798 index equivalent ~779 SPY. Range nearly symmetric (7.96 below, 7.04 above) reflecting neutral directional view for 1-day, as evidence does not support strong direction.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: No major earnings for SPY basket in next 24h, but CPI preview aligning with expectations per CryptoBriefing suggesting Fed may hold. Jobs and ISM Services (51.8 vs 52.0) due per FT Portfolios calendar. E-mini S&P 500 futures flat -0.03% at 7764.75 per ScanX Sep 25, indicating lack of directional bias overnight. No Iran Strait rumor recurrence unless headline. Main catalyst is end-of-week positioning into Monday Sep 28 session.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: Bull case is SPY snapping 3-day losing streak per Morningstar, up 0.46% to 7666, could continue to challenge 7798 record high if inflation cools. Bear case is September seasonality average -1.1% win rate 44.2% per Forex.com, with 4 of last 10 Septembers down. Inflation re-acceleration to 3.1% forecast per FXStreet could trigger hawkish Fed repricing, pushing yields higher and pressuring multiples. Invalidation below 762 would signal breakdown of recent consolidation, above 777 would signal breakout toward ATH.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Confidence 58% moderate, reflecting live price retrieval Sep 25 but conflicting SPY levels across sources (659 to 769) and flat futures indicating noise. Neutral is honest for 1-day as market in quiet stretch per CWS. Longer-term bullish view supported by YTD +13.72% and profit growth on track for 25%+ per Motley Fool, but short-term direction indistinguishable from noise, hence NEUTRAL 1d.
DeepSeek
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) What I found: SPY is trading at $769.49 as of 08:57 ET on September 25, 2026, according to a market data post on X (source: https://x.com/terra_blueocean/status/2103473975854825671). The ETF is up $2.31 or 0.30% from the prior close. Futunn shows a similar quote of $767.36 at 10:21 ET with an intraday range of $766.29-$770.31. The 52-week range is approximately $626-$777. The 10-year Treasury yield is at 5.179% and the 30-year at 5.475%, both near multi-decade highs. VIX is at 15.16, down 3.25%. Oil prices are lower, with WTI at $92.72 and Brent at $104.98.
(2) The current market regime is hawkish Fed policy with rising Treasury yields, but equities are showing resilience. Analysts at Citi and Jefferies note that AI optimism and demand for AI infrastructure are supporting stocks despite the yield headwind (source: PAP Biznes, 2026-09-25). Bloomberg reported that US and Iranian negotiators are considering a staged agreement that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which could further ease oil prices. President Xi and President Trump reportedly reached agreement on several issues at a White House dinner, adding to positive geopolitical sentiment. The S&P 500 is on track for a 0.7% weekly gain.
(3) Price range justification: I am anchoring to the current price of $769.49 and the intraday range of $766.29-$770.31. SPY has been testing the 766-768 support zone, which has attracted buyers on previous occasions (source: Investing.com, 2026-09-24). The descending trendline from August's high is also in this area. A hold above 766 could lead to a bounce toward 773, which has been resistance. A break below 766 would open the door to 762 or lower. The range of $762.00-$777.00 reflects roughly a 1% downside and 1% upside move, consistent with SPY's recent daily volatility.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: No major scheduled earnings or macro events for SPY itself within the one-day window. However, the market is sensitive to any news flow from the US-Iran negotiations and the US-China summit follow-through. The August durable goods orders came in at 0.0% month-over-month versus -0.3% expected, and core orders at 0.3% versus 0.6% expected, a mixed reading. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment report is due later in the session. There is no confirmed product launch or regulatory decision inside the window.
(5) The strongest counter-argument: SPY is sitting on a critical technical support zone at 766-768, and a decisive break below could trigger a deeper correction toward 750. The 10-year yield above 5.17% is pressuring equity valuations, and the market breadth remains narrow. Barclays has warned that rising yields make equities a less obvious choice relative to bonds. If the Iran deal fails to materialize or oil prices spike again, risk appetite could deteriorate quickly. A close below 766 would invalidate the near-term bullish bias.
(6) Why confidence is 62%: The evidence for a mildly bullish bias is supported by live price data, positive pre-market sentiment, AI-driven optimism, and potential geopolitical de-escalation. However, the technical setup is precarious, with SPY testing key support, and the macro backdrop remains challenging. A confidence of 62% reflects genuine uncertainty over a single session, with the balance of evidence slightly favoring the upside but not enough to justify a strong directional call.
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