This is ForecastNest’s 1 day forecast for MSTR, created 2026-09-06 19:30 UTC. The window closed 2026-09-08 20:00 UTC, when MSTR closed at $136.54, down 4.3% from $142.71 when the forecast was made. It traded between $135.38 and $139.31 along the way (-5.1% to -2.4%).
Prediction window: Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.
Prediction time: 2026-09-06 19:30 UTC (9/6/2026, 3:30:26 PM EDT).
Valid until: 2026-09-08 20:00 UTC (9/8/2026, 4:00:00 PM EDT). Target session: 2026-09-08 (New York); Session close. Lead time to expiry: 48.49 elapsed hours. Timing: Weekend / holiday. Based on stored prediction time, not verified model execution time.
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4 of the 5 models called a direction, and 3 of those calls were right. Each model is also asked to find the price it was forecasting from when it answers, shown as the dashed line inside its box in the picture below. All models except DeepSeek-R1 found it accurately.
Below are the details.
| Model | Range | Move | Confidence | Price it found | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | $128.00–$154.00 | -10.2% to +8.0% | 70% | $142.58 | 81.9 | right |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | $138.00–$147.00 | -3.2% to +3.1% | 85% | $142.58 | 51.9 | no call |
| Grok 4.5 | $130.00–$155.00 | -9.0% to +8.5% | 36% | $142.80 | 77.8 | right |
| DeepSeek-R1 | $130.00–$148.00 | -6.6% to +6.4% | 50% | $139.16 | 31.8 | wrong |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | $136.00–$148.50 | -4.8% to +4.0% | 53% | $142.80 | 80.0 | right |
How these models have done on MSTR over 1 day
This forecast is settled and is included in the statistics below. The remaining records are forecasts created before 2026-09-06 19:30 UTC. Only settled directional calls count toward accuracy.
| Model | Asked | Still open | No call | Called up | Called down | Right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | 1 | — | 0 | — | 1 · 1 right | 100% (1/1) |
| Grok 4.5 | 1 | — | 0 | — | 1 · 1 right | 100% (1/1) |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | 1 | — | 0 | — | 1 · 1 right | 100% (1/1) |
| DeepSeek-R1 | 1 | — | 0 | — | 1 · 0 right | 0% (0/1) |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | 1 | — | 1 | — | — | — |
Every published MSTR forecast these models made over 1 day before this question was asked, on 2026-09-06 19:30 UTC, plus this settled forecast. Forecasts created after this question are excluded. Results reflect the settlements available when this article is generated. A day-ahead call and a week-ahead one are counted separately — they are different questions. Only settled forecasts are graded, so open + no call + up + down adds up to asked. “No call” is a range too centred on the price to be pointing anywhere. Accuracy counts only forecasts that have settled, and the count behind it is shown beside it — a single right call is not a 100% record.
What each model said
GPT-5.6 Sol
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) Price and data: September 6 is Sunday, so MSTR is not trading at the requested timestamp. StockAnalysis reports the September 4 regular-session close at $142.80 and the latest after-hours price at $142.58 at 7:59 PM ET. Because that quote predates the requested timestamp, I use $142.58 as the latest verified equity price and classify data access as partial. StockAnalysis also shows the price data updated through September 6. Source: StockAnalysis. ([StockAnalysis.com][1])
(2) Market regime: MSTR enters the weekend after extraordinary volatility. Seeking Alpha reports that it surged almost 18% on September 3 to $144.82, while September 4 then produced a modest 1.39% decline to $142.80. The recent rally coincided with Bitcoin's recovery and renewed interest in crypto-sensitive equities, but Friday's stronger U.S. employment report pushed Treasury yields and expectations for tighter Federal Reserve policy higher. Sources: Seeking Alpha and Reuters. ([Seeking Alpha][2])
(3) Price range: I estimate $128.00-$154.00 for the next tradable one-day window. The $128 area corresponds roughly to the zone MSTR occupied before the September 3 surge, while $154 allows continuation above the recent $144-$145 region if Bitcoin strengthens further. The range is intentionally asymmetric to the downside because a large portion of the recent equity gain occurred very quickly and MSTR historically amplifies changes in Bitcoin sentiment.
(4) Catalysts: Bitcoin remains the dominant immediate variable. Strategy announced on August 31 that it had purchased 4,603 BTC for approximately $369.7 million at an average $80,318, taking total holdings to 845,050 BTC; the purchase was financed through common-stock issuance. Separately, Friday's 162,000 U.S. payroll gain increased expectations for a September Fed rate increase, creating a macro headwind for high-volatility assets. Sources: Barron's, Wall Street Journal and Reuters. ([Barron's][3])
(5) Counter-argument: The bullish case is that MSTR has demonstrated powerful momentum and Strategy has resumed Bitcoin accumulation after its earlier pause. The bearish case is that the September 3 rally was unusually large, Bitcoin remains volatile, and common-stock issuance used to finance Bitcoin purchases increases the share count; StockAnalysis reports shares outstanding are up 24.59% year over year. A sustained Bitcoin advance would weaken the bearish one-day interpretation, whereas renewed crypto weakness combined with rising Treasury yields would strengthen it. Sources: StockAnalysis, Barron's and Investopedia. ([StockAnalysis.com][1])
(6) Confidence: Confidence is 70%. I use MILD BEARISH for 1d because the stock is coming off an exceptionally sharp rally and Friday's macro environment became less favorable, but NEUTRAL for 1h and 4h because the equity market is closed and weekend Bitcoin movement can materially change Monday's opening conditions. The 7d and 30d signals remain mildly bullish because Bitcoin has recently recovered and Strategy has resumed accumulation, but MSTR's unusually high sensitivity to Bitcoin keeps forecast uncertainty substantial.
Gemini 1.5 Pro
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) Sourcing: Live search data from Investing.com and MarketBeat confirms MSTR closed Friday, September 4, 2026, at $142.80 on the NASDAQ, slipping to $142.58 in after-hours trading. Bitcoin, MSTR's primary treasury asset, is hovering near $79,900 this Sunday.
(2) Market regime: The stock is consolidating after a massive ~45% one-month rally. This surge was catalyzed by Strategy resuming its Bitcoin acquisitions (purchasing 4,603 BTC for ~$370M) and major ETF inflows, such as Fundstrat's GRNY ETF making MSTR its top holding. Friday saw mild profit-taking as Bitcoin faced resistance.
(3) Price range: I forecast a 1-day range of $138.00-$147.00. Because the primary NASDAQ exchange is closed on Monday, September 7, for the US Labor Day holiday, official volume will be zero. However, this range accounts for where MSTR proxy shares on European exchanges (like Boerse Frankfurt) or 24-hour retail brokerages could price the asset based on weekend crypto volatility.
(4) Catalysts: The immediate 24-hour window is defined by the US market holiday. Without traditional institutional equity trading, the only catalyst is Bitcoin's underlying weekend price action-specifically whether BTC can break the $80,500 resistance or if it slides back to the $78,500 support level.
(5) Counter-argument: The strongest risk to this range is a sharp weekend liquidation event in crypto markets. Because MSTR trades at a premium to its underlying Bitcoin holdings, a sudden drop in BTC could cause aggressive indicative gap-downs on alternative exchanges that breach the lower bound.
(6) Confidence: 85%. The US market holiday essentially freezes the primary ticker, locking in Friday's close for most venues and aggressively suppressing overall equity volatility, making a tight range highly probable.
Grok 4.5
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Friday 4 Sep 2026 close was $142.80 (down 1.39% from Thursday’s $144.82), day range $137.07-$144.40, volume ~26-27M, per StockAnalysis, MarketWatch, Motley Fool, Morningstar and FinanceCharts. After-hours held near $142.58. Markets remain closed over the weekend; this is the last official print. 52-week range $81.81-$365.21.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: Mild pullback after Thursday’s sharp rebound, with MSTR consolidating recent gains. As a high-beta Bitcoin proxy the stock continues to track crypto volatility and broader risk appetite in speculative names.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to the $142.80 Friday close. Recent daily ranges of $7-17 and elevated beta support a next-session window of roughly ±8-10%. Lower bound near $130 allows for a deeper giveback; upper bound near $155 covers extension of the prior rebound. Range is roughly balanced given the neutral close.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: Markets reopen Monday 7 Sep. Overnight Bitcoin price action, residual positioning or any crypto-related headlines will be the primary potential drivers. No company-specific earnings expected in the immediate next session.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: A sharp risk-off move in Bitcoin or broader markets could push MSTR below $130; stronger crypto momentum could drive a break above $155. Sustained trade outside the stated range would overturn the neutral near-term stance.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Live Friday close is confirmed, yet high-volatility Bitcoin-proxy names produce large noise on single-day horizons; weekend gap risk and crypto dependence keep conviction moderate-to-low.
DeepSeek-R1
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) Current price and data sources: At the forecast window start (2026-09-06 19:30 UTC), US equity markets are closed for the weekend. The most recent available quote is from September 6, 2026, with Strategy Inc. (MSTR) trading at $139.16, reflecting a -3.91% change over the last 24 hours and a 9.63% gain over the past week. The intraday range on September 6 was $135.22-$145.70, with the previous close at $144.82. The 52-week range is $79.91-$456.37, and the stock has a beta of 2.44, reflecting high volatility. I have anchored my range to $139.16, the most current available price.
(2) Current market regime: MSTR is in a volatile consolidation phase following a sharp rally. The stock surged 17.5% to $144.82 on September 4, driven by Bitcoin's breakthrough above $80,000 and Strategy's resumption of Bitcoin accumulation after a 10-week hiatus. However, the stock then gapped down 5.2% at the September 4 open, falling from $144.82 to $137.35 before recovering modestly, and continued to decline to $139.16 on September 6. The company purchased 4,603 BTC at an average price of $80,318, bringing its total Bitcoin holdings to 845,050 BTC. Bitcoin is currently trading near $80,000, having recovered from a low near $76,200. The stock's P/E ratio is -1.49 and EPS is -$97.21, reflecting significant non-cash Bitcoin impairment charges.
(3) Price range justification: I expect MSTR to trade between $130.00 and $148.00 over the next 1-day window (the next trading session on September 8, as September 7 is a US holiday). The lower bound of $130.00 is informed by the September 4 intraday low of $135.41 and the $137.07 low from September 4, with additional cushion for potential gap-down risk over the long weekend. The upper bound of $148.00 is informed by the September 4 high of $144.40-$145.70 and the $145 resistance level identified in technical analysis. The range is asymmetric to the downside because the stock's recent 5.2% gap-down and continued decline suggest selling pressure, and Bitcoin's ability to sustain above $80,000 is uncertain given the strong US jobs report that raised expectations of Fed rate hikes.
(4) Scheduled catalysts inside the window: The immediate 1-day window (September 6 to September 8) spans a long US holiday weekend, with markets closed on September 7 for Labor Day. No major company-specific earnings or announcements are scheduled for September 8; the next estimated earnings date is October 29, 2026. However, several catalysts are in play: (a) Bitcoin's price action over the weekend, as MSTR's stock is highly correlated with Bitcoin movements; (b) the upcoming CLARITY Act procedural vote scheduled for September 15 at 2:15 p.m. ET, which requires 60 votes to proceed; (c) B. Riley raised its projected level on MSTR to $175 from $155 on September 3, maintaining a Buy rating; and (d) Alliance Global Partners increased its rating to Strong-Buy on September 4.
(5) Strongest counter-argument: The bullish case is that MSTR is significantly undervalued relative to analyst targets. The consensus projected level is $274.57 with a Strong Buy consensus, and the 1-year forecast target is $225.93. The company's resumed Bitcoin accumulation and the upcoming CLARITY Act vote could provide positive catalysts. If Bitcoin sustains its hold above $80,000 or breaks higher, MSTR could rally sharply toward the $145-$148 resistance zone. Conversely, if Bitcoin retreats below $80,000 or if the CLARITY Act vote fails to advance, MSTR could retest the $130-$135 support level. A break below $130.00 would invalidate my neutral-to-bearish short-term view and suggest a move toward the $120 area.
(6) Confidence rationale: My confidence is 50%, reflecting a stock in a highly volatile consolidation phase with significant weekend gap risk. The 1-day window is effectively a gap-risk assessment, as the next trading session begins on September 8. The stock's beta of 2.44 and its strong correlation with Bitcoin create two-way risk. I am more confident in the $130.00-$148.00 range than in the precise path within it, and I acknowledge that a gap in either direction is possible depending on weekend developments in Bitcoin price, geopolitical events, and any unexpected regulatory or legislative news regarding the CLARITY Act.
Muse Spark 1.1
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Retrieved live quote Finnhub showing Strategy Inc Current Price 142.8 Open 137.35 High 144.4 Low 137.0675 Previous Close 144.82 Change -2.02, and Zacks Sep 4 2026 note confirming In the latest close session Strategy was down 1.39% at $142.80, and MacroTrends confirming latest closing price as of Sep 04 2026 is 142.80. Also newsflow from FXStreet, CoinDesk, The Block Sep 2026 showing Strategy holds 845,050 BTC acquired for ~$63.73B average $75,476, funded via ATM proceeds $602.8M, alternating weeks of no BTC purchases while building $3B USD reserve, and sales of 1,690 BTC for $108.6M to repurchase STRC preferred.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: MSTR in high-beta Bitcoin proxy regime with Beta 3.63, 52-week high $365.21 low $81.81, down ~61% from Nov 2024 high $473.83. Trading below prior close, underperforming broader market per Zacks. BTC trading around $63k per The Block note with $10.7B paper losses on holdings at current prices, pressuring mNAV toward 1.00. Capital allocation shift from BTC stacking to STRC buybacks ($635M) creating investor concern.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to $142.80. Intraday range Sep 4 ~$7.33 (5.3%) from $137.07 to $144.4 showing elevated volatility. For 1-day weekend horizon (next print Monday Sep 8), set $136.00 lower bound (~4.8% below) to cover retest of open $137.35 and prior week low area, $148.50 upper bound (~4% above) to cover previous close $144.82 resistance. Slight downside skew due to -1.39% close and pre-market weakness noted on STRC buyback news.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: No earnings in 1-day; weekend BTC spot movement is primary driver - BTC flat at $63k noted Monday after filing. Any SEC 8-K on ATM sales or BTC purchase will be Monday pre-market. No Fed events in window; focus remains on USD reserve build to $3B and whether Strategy resumes BTC buying vs preferred defense.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: Bull case is BTC rally above $81k-92k levels seen in prior purchase headlines providing leveraged upside to MSTR, as noted Barchart article where MSTR moves more sharply than Bitcoin. Invalidation would be BTC spiking >5% weekend pushing MSTR above $150, or conversely BTC drop below $60k triggering larger discount to NAV and push below $135.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: 53% - live price anchor is solid with multiple sources agreeing on $142.80, but 1-day direction for leveraged BTC proxy over weekend is dominated by crypto volatility which is unknowable. Recent mixed capital actions (BTC buy $370M then no buys) add uncertainty, hence low-medium confidence and NEUTRAL to MILD BEARISH tilt reflecting latest negative close.
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