This is ForecastNest’s 7 days forecast for SPY, created 2026-09-04 22:34 UTC. The window closed 2026-09-11 22:34 UTC, when SPY closed at $764.29, down 0.8% from $770.24 when the forecast was made. It traded between $756.64 and $769.69 along the way (-1.8% to -0.1%).
Prediction window: Existing Mode 1 horizon rules apply; the stored expiry is authoritative.
Prediction time: 2026-09-04 22:34 UTC (9/4/2026, 6:34:26 PM EDT).
Valid until: 2026-09-11 22:34 UTC (9/11/2026, 6:34:26 PM EDT). Target session: 2026-09-11 (New York); Stored expiry outside regular session. Lead time to expiry: 168 elapsed hours. Timing: After close. Based on stored prediction time, not verified model execution time.
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4 of the 5 models called a direction, and 3 of those calls were right. Each model is also asked to find the price it was forecasting from when it answers, shown as the dashed line inside its box in the picture below. Every model found it accurately.
Below are the details.
| Model | Range | Move | Confidence | Price it found | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Luna | $744.00–$789.00 | -3.7% to +2.1% | 78% | $772.65 | 83.7 | right |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | $760.00–$782.00 | -1.2% to +1.6% | 65% | $769.51 | 31.3 | wrong |
| Grok 4.5 | $750.00–$790.00 | -2.6% to +2.6% | 42% | $770.19 | 52.1 | no call |
| DeepSeek-R1 | $745.00–$785.00 | -3.2% to +2.0% | 55% | $769.85 | 81.2 | right |
| claude-opus-5 (Claude Opus 5) | $744.00–$786.00 | -3.3% to +2.2% | 41% | $769.24 | 79.6 | right |
How these models have done on SPY over 7 days
This forecast is settled and is included in the statistics below. The remaining records are forecasts created before 2026-09-04 22:34 UTC. Only settled directional calls count toward accuracy.
| Model | Asked | Still open | No call | Called up | Called down | Right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Luna | 3 | — | 0 | — | 3 · 3 right | 100% (3/3) |
| DeepSeek-R1 | 3 | — | 0 | — | 3 · 3 right | 100% (3/3) |
| claude-opus-5 (Claude Opus 5) | 2 | — | 0 | — | 2 · 2 right | 100% (2/2) |
| Grok 4.5 | 3 | — | 2 | — | 1 · 1 right | 100% (1/1) |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | 3 | — | 1 | 1 · 0 right | 1 · 1 right | 50% (1/2) |
Every published SPY forecast these models made over 7 days before this question was asked, on 2026-09-04 22:34 UTC, plus this settled forecast. Forecasts created after this question are excluded. Results reflect the settlements available when this article is generated. A day-ahead call and a week-ahead one are counted separately — they are different questions. Only settled forecasts are graded, so open + no call + up + down adds up to asked. “No call” is a range too centred on the price to be pointing anywhere. Accuracy counts only forecasts that have settled, and the count behind it is shown beside it — a single right call is not a 100% record.
What each model said
GPT-5.6 Luna
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) Market regime: SPY closed September 4 at $773.17 after opening at $772.01, reaching $775.08 before finishing lower; StockAnalysis then showed an after-hours price of $772.65 at 6:34 PM ET, exactly matching the requested 22:34 UTC window. The S&P 500 itself fell 0.38% on September 4 as stronger labor data pushed Treasury yields higher. Sources: StockAnalysis and Reuters. ([StockAnalysis.com][1])
(2) Technical synthesis: SPY remains close to its record area, but Friday's reversal after the employment report weakened near-term momentum. The September 3 close was $773.17 after a 1.05% gain, followed by a September 4 decline, creating a short-term rejection near the upper-$770s. The broader trend is still structurally positive, so the technical picture is best described as short-term corrective rather than a confirmed long-term breakdown. Source: StockAnalysis. ([StockAnalysis.com][1])
(3) Price range: For the next seven calendar days, with U.S. markets closed Monday for Labor Day, I estimate a tradable range of $744.00-$789.00. The lower side allows for a deeper correction toward the mid-$740s if rates and inflation expectations remain restrictive, while the upper side allows a recovery back through the recent record zone around $779.37 and modest extension above it. The width reflects the combination of elevated macro volatility and a market trading close to all-time highs. The September 4 S&P 500 close was 7,718.60, while SPY's 52-week high is $779.37. Sources: AP and StockAnalysis. ([AP News][2])
(4) Catalysts: The key near-term catalyst is the shift in Fed expectations after the August employment report: payrolls increased 162,000 versus expectations around 56,000, unemployment stayed at 4.1%, and markets raised the probability of a September rate hike toward roughly 60%. Next week, BLS is scheduled to release August PPI on September 10 and August CPI on September 11, immediately inside the seven-day forecast window. U.S. markets are closed September 7 for Labor Day. Sources: Reuters, BLS and NYSE. ([Reuters][3])
(5) Counter-argument: The strongest bullish case is that the economy is still expanding, unemployment is stable, wages are rising only 3.1% year over year, and SPY remains close to record territory. A benign CPI/PPI sequence could reverse the recent rise in rate expectations and restore the index's upward momentum. The bearish call would be weakened substantially by softer-than-expected inflation data and falling Treasury yields, while renewed oil or geopolitical inflation pressure would strengthen it. Source: Reuters. ([Reuters][3])
(6) Confidence: Confidence is 78%. The seven-day bearish signal is driven mainly by the post-jobs-report repricing toward tighter Federal Reserve policy and the unusually important CPI/PPI releases ahead. I retain only a mild bearish signal for 4h and 1d because SPY remains near its high rather than in a confirmed downtrend, while the 180d signal stays mildly bullish because the longer-term market structure remains constructive despite the near-term macro headwinds.
Gemini 1.5 Pro
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) Market research sourced from Google Finance and live exchange data confirms SPY closed the regular session at $770.19 on Friday, September 4, 2026, before settling at $769.51 in late after-hours trading. The ETF traded within an intraday range of $769.00 to $772.87.
(2) The current market regime reflects high-level consolidation near historic highs (52-week high of $779.37). Equities have demonstrated resilience following early-week volatility, establishing a clean retest and rebound off structural support near the $760-$765 zone.
(3) The 7-day price range of $760.00-$782.00 is anchored directly to option market implied volatility, which prices in a ±$8.61 (1.11%) expected move through September 11, 2026. The lower bound ($760.00) protects against a retest of the August breakout shelf, while the upper bound ($782.00) accommodates a potential push to new record highs.
(4) Key catalysts inside this 7-day window include upcoming U.S. inflation metrics (CPI/PPI releases) and macro positioning ahead of the mid-September FOMC interest rate decision.
(5) The primary counter-argument to a mild bullish bias is valuation friction (with trailing P/E near 23.1x) and potential headline risks in energy markets. A hotter-than-expected CPI reading next week could trigger institutional profit-taking, breaking $760 support and invalidating the call.
(6) Confidence is set at 65%. While intermediate structural trends remain intact above key moving averages, a 7-day forecast horizon containing major macro inflation releases introduces moderate binary event risk.
Grok 4.5
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Friday 4 Sep 2026 close was $770.19 (down 0.39% from Thursday’s $773.17), day range $769.00-$772.87, volume ~28-33M, per CNBC, Motley Fool, Investing.com and TECHi. After-hours held near $769.64-$769.85. Prior closes: 3 Sep $773.17, 2 Sep $765.16. 52-week range $629.28-$779.37.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: Mild pullback after Thursday’s rebound, with SPY consolidating near recent highs. Broader indices showed limited follow-through, reflecting a balanced risk environment without strong directional catalysts into the weekend.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to the $770.19 Friday close. Recent daily ranges of $4-8 and typical weekly moves of 1-3% support a 7-day window of roughly ±2.5-3%. Lower bound near $750 allows for a deeper consolidation or mild correction; upper bound near $790 covers a retest of the August highs around $779. Range is roughly balanced given the neutral short-term tone.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: No major high-impact U.S. data releases dominate the immediate 7-day horizon beyond routine economic prints. Residual market positioning, any geopolitical developments, and early September seasonality remain the primary potential drivers.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: A sharp risk-off move or weaker global cues could push SPY below $750; stronger risk appetite and positive data could drive a break above $790. Sustained trade outside the stated range would overturn the neutral near-term stance.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Live Friday close is confirmed and the market is consolidating near highs, yet 7-day forecasts remain subject to macro noise and event risk; moderate conviction is appropriate without strong directional catalysts.
DeepSeek-R1
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) Current price and data sources: At the forecast window start (2026-09-04 22:34 UTC), SPY closed the regular session at $769.85, down 0.43% on the day. The intraday range was $769.00-$772.87. After-hours trading shows $770.41, down $0.69 or -0.09%. The 52-week range is $629.28-$779.37. I have anchored my range to the regular session close of $769.85.
(2) Current market regime: SPY is trading just below its all-time high of $779.37 set on August 13, 2026. The broader uptrend remains intact-price is above the prior breakout zone near $756, and both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages continue sloping higher. However, short-term momentum has rolled over: daily MACD has turned negative and RSI has cooled into the mid-40s. The 4-hour and hourly signals are flashing sell. The August nonfarm payrolls report (+162,000 vs. +55,000 expected) pushed the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.78% and raised the probability of a September 16 Fed rate hike to 58-61%.
(3) Price range justification: I expect SPY to trade between $745 and $785 over the next 7-day window. The lower bound of $745 is informed by the 755-758 support zone identified as the level that launched last month's rally, with additional cushion for a potential overshoot if the Fed hawkish repricing intensifies. The upper bound of $785 is informed by the all-time high of $779.37 and the possibility of a relief rally if next week's CPI/PPI data come in soft. The range is asymmetric to the downside because the Fed rate-hike catalyst-now at 58-61% probability-represents a genuine near-term headwind, and September historically underperforms.
(4) Scheduled catalysts inside the window: The key catalysts over the next 7 days are: (a) the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) reports due next week, which will be the final inflation data before the September 15-16 FOMC meeting; (b) ongoing geopolitical risk from US-Iran strikes near the Strait of Hormuz, which has pushed Brent crude above $90 and WTI oil up over 3%; (c) Fed Governor Waller's recent dovish comments had temporarily reduced hike odds to 52% from 65%, but the jobs report reversed that move; and (d) Q2 earnings season is wrapping up with 86% of S&P 500 companies beating estimates and earnings growth tracking near +32%.
(5) Strongest counter-argument: The bullish case is that the S&P 500 is trading at 19.6 times forward earnings, cheaper than it was on June 30, and Q2 earnings growth of nearly 32% is well above the +23% projection. AI infrastructure stocks are expected to contribute nearly 60% of S&P 500 EPS growth. If next week's CPI/PPI data come in soft, Fed hike odds could fade quickly, triggering a rally back toward the $779.37 all-time high and potentially beyond. A break above $785 would invalidate my bearish 7-day view and flip the signal to bullish.
(6) Confidence rationale: My confidence is 55%, reflecting a market caught between a still-constructive longer-term structure (daily and weekly trends remain bullish) and a cluster of near-term headwinds (rising Fed hike odds, elevated oil prices, geopolitical risk, and weak September seasonals). The 7-day window includes two major inflation reports that will determine whether the Fed hikes on September 16. I am more confident in the $745-$785 range than in the precise path within it, and I acknowledge that a dovish CPI print could push SPY toward the upper end of the range while a hot print could drive it toward the lower end.
claude-opus-5 (Claude Opus 5)
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) What I found, and where: SPY closed Friday September 4 at $770.19, down 0.39% on the day, in a narrow $769.00-$772.87 range on ~32.7M shares, after a +1.05% session to $773.17 on September 3 (stockanalysis.com). The most recent print before this 22:34 UTC window start is the after-hours quote of $769.24 (-0.12%) timestamped 6:14pm EDT, roughly twenty minutes ahead of the baseline, and that is what I am anchoring to rather than the 4pm close. The 52-week range is $629.28-$779.37, putting SPY about 1.3% under its 52-week high (stockanalysis.com).
(2) Current market regime: this is a tightening-risk tape, not a growth-scare tape. August non-farm payrolls printed 162,000 against a consensus near 55,000 with unemployment steady at 4.1% (UPI, CNBC), and the reaction function is inverted from the usual - good labor news is equity-negative because it revives the hike debate. Front-end yields set 52-week highs intraday (2Y 4.374%, 5Y 4.545%, 10Y 4.78% per TheStreet), yet the index absorbed the surprise almost fully, with the S&P closing down only 0.08% and the Nasdaq up 0.12% as yields faded into the afternoon (Yahoo Finance). Odds of a September 16 hike sit near 50% after Governor Waller's dovish remarks pulled them back from higher levels (Yahoo Finance, TheStreet). Beneath the index, dispersion is violent - Lululemon -18%, Guidewire -22.2%, Fair Isaac -17.5% against Astera Labs +10% - which is a market repricing individual guidance hard while the aggregate barely moves.
(3) Price range justification: from the $769.24 anchor, note first that the window contains only four cash sessions - Monday September 7 is Labor Day and US equity markets are closed - so calendar time overstates trading time here. Recent daily ranges have been well under 1% (Friday's high-to-low was 0.50%), which over four sessions implies a ~1.8-2.0% one-sigma envelope; I am widening that to roughly 2.5-3.5% for the CPI print. The resulting band is $744.00 to $786.00, deliberately skewed lower: about 3.3% of room below versus 2.2% above, because SPY sits only 1.3% beneath its 52-week high of $779.37 and therefore has more distance to travel on a hawkish surprise than on a benign one. The upper bound still sits above that 52-week high, since a cool inflation print plausibly produces new highs.
(4) Catalysts inside the window: the August CPI report lands Thursday September 11 at 8:30am ET (BLS schedule via usinflationcalculator.com and financecalendar.com), roughly ten hours before this window expires, with PPI in the same stretch. Analysts quoted Friday framed CPI and PPI as decisive for the September 16 FOMC decision (Yahoo Finance). Weekly jobless claims on September 10 and any Fed speakers ahead of the pre-meeting blackout are secondary. Note the structural point: the hike decision itself falls on September 16, outside this window, so what trades inside the window is the repricing of that probability, not its resolution.
(5) Strongest counter-argument and invalidation: the bear case has been repeatedly wrong at exactly this juncture. Friday delivered a large hawkish surprise on payrolls, pushed front-end yields to 52-week highs, and the index still finished essentially flat - that is evidence of persistent bid, and a cool CPI on September 11 would likely release it into new highs, making my MILD BEARISH 7d call wrong quickly. The call is invalidated if CPI comes in at or below consensus and hike odds fall meaningfully below the current ~50%, or if SPY takes out $779.37 on volume before the print. It is also worth flagging that Friday's index reaction was reported inconsistently across sources (S&P -0.08% at the close versus -0.42% intraday), so the day's underlying tone is genuinely mixed rather than clean.
(6) Confidence justification: 41% reflects a real but modest directional lean. The skew comes from position rather than momentum - SPY is near its high with an unresolved hike debate and a binary inflation print inside the window, which is an asymmetric setup - but the same setup existed into Friday's jobs report and the tape absorbed it. The 4h and 1d horizons are NEUTRAL by construction, not judgment: cash markets are closed through the weekend and again for Labor Day, so there is nothing to forecast there. Longer-dated 180d MILD BULLISH rests on structural drift and the trailing 20.97% one-year total return rather than any view on the September meeting.
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