This is ForecastNest’s 7 days forecast for MSTR, created 2026-08-25 11:47 UTC. The window closed 2026-09-01 20:00 UTC, when MSTR closed at $124.91, up 1.8% from $122.68 when the forecast was made. It traded between $118.46 and $139.78 along the way (-3.4% to +13.9%).
Prediction window: Existing Mode 1 horizon rules apply; the stored expiry is authoritative.
Prediction time: 2026-08-25 11:47 UTC (8/25/2026, 7:47:32 AM EDT).
Valid until: 2026-09-01 20:00 UTC (9/1/2026, 4:00:00 PM EDT). Target session: 2026-09-01 (New York); Session close. Lead time to expiry: 176.21 elapsed hours. Timing: Premarket. Based on stored prediction time, not verified model execution time.
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5 of the 5 models called a direction, and 4 of those calls were right.
Below are the details.
| Model | Range | Move | Confidence | Price it found | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ChatGPT — GPT-5 | $112.00–$139.00 | -8.7% to +13.3% | 68% | — | 82.3 | right |
| Grok | $108.00–$145.00 | -12.0% to +18.2% | 32% | — | 78.7 | right |
| Gemini — Pro | $112.00–$142.00 | -8.7% to +15.7% | 60% | — | 82.0 | right |
| DeepSeek | $128.00–$142.00 | +4.3% to +15.7% | 60% | — | 84.7 | right |
| Claude — Opus | $103.00–$141.00 | -16.0% to +14.9% | 46% | — | 30.4 | wrong |
How these models have done on MSTR over 7 days
This forecast is settled and is included in the statistics below. The remaining records are forecasts created before 2026-08-25 11:47 UTC. Only settled directional calls count toward accuracy.
| Model | Asked | Still open | No call | Called up | Called down | Right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ChatGPT — GPT-5 | 1 | — | 0 | 1 · 1 right | — | 100% (1/1) |
| Grok | 1 | — | 0 | 1 · 1 right | — | 100% (1/1) |
| Gemini — Pro | 1 | — | 0 | 1 · 1 right | — | 100% (1/1) |
| DeepSeek | 1 | — | 0 | 1 · 1 right | — | 100% (1/1) |
| Claude — Opus | 1 | — | 0 | — | 1 · 0 right | 0% (0/1) |
Every published MSTR forecast these models made over 7 days before this question was asked, on 2026-08-25 11:47 UTC, plus this settled forecast. Forecasts created after this question are excluded. Results reflect the settlements available when this article is generated. A day-ahead call and a week-ahead one are counted separately — they are different questions. Only settled forecasts are graded, so open + no call + up + down adds up to asked. “No call” is a range too centred on the price to be pointing anywhere. Accuracy counts only forecasts that have settled, and the count behind it is shown beside it — a single right call is not a 100% record.
What each model said
ChatGPT — GPT-5
Result: right
View full reasoning
I retrieved current information dated August 25, 2026, so data_access is live. The supplied $122.65 baseline is essentially confirmed by current market data: Barchart/Raymond James shows MSTR closing August 24 at $122.63 after trading from $119.38 to $127.90 on 41.3 million shares, while StatMuse's extended-hours data shows $122.68 later in the evening. ([Raymond James][1]) The current regime is a high-beta crypto-equity rebound rather than a mature low-volatility uptrend. MSTR rose from $92.52 on August 18 to $122.63 on August 24, a roughly 33% five-session rebound, and Monday's volume was about 1.9 times the average cited by Barchart/SwingTradeBot. ([Raymond James][1]) Bitcoin is providing a strong macro tailwind: Reuters reports BTC moved above $80,000 on August 25 to a three-month high, with the rally attributed partly to a weaker dollar and expectations surrounding Treasury policy. ([Reuters][2]) The strongest near-term bullish factor is therefore not an isolated MSTR technical signal but the simultaneous BTC breakout and renewed crypto-equity momentum. Technical evidence also favors continuation over the next week: SwingTradeBot identifies support around $118.71, $114.78 and $110.19 and resistance around $127.23, $131.82 and $135.75; its August 24 reading also describes a pocket-pivot-type setup, although it notes overbought stochastic conditions. ([SwingTradeBot][3]) Another technical source puts RSI around 68 and describes MSTR as above its short-term moving averages, but also notes that the stock is extended above its upper Bollinger Band, creating mean-reversion risk. ([Maya][4]) I therefore expect the seven-day range to extend materially above the $122.65 baseline, but I also allow a substantial downside excursion to account for MSTR's unusually high volatility. The $127-$132 zone is the first important upside test; a sustained break could expose $135-$139. On the downside, $118-$115 is the first meaningful support zone, followed by approximately $110. The $112 lower bound therefore allows for a normal but sharp pullback without assuming that the current crypto rebound has failed. The range is intentionally skewed upward because BTC momentum is currently unusually strong and MSTR has historically amplified Bitcoin moves, but the width reflects the stock's recent 25%+ five-day swing and the possibility of violent reversals. A major fundamental development is Strategy's August 24 filing: the company sold 18,261,118 MSTR shares for approximately $2.01 billion net during August 17-23, did not buy or sell Bitcoin during that week, increased its USD reserve by $300 million to $5.1 billion, and established a new $1.59 billion USD Cash pool. ([The Block][5]) This is simultaneously bullish and bearish: the enlarged liquidity cushion reduces forced-sale/financing risk and gives Strategy substantial dry powder for future Bitcoin purchases, but issuing 18.26 million common shares creates dilution and demonstrates that MSTR's capital-raising engine remains central to the strategy. The company's own disclosure says the new cash pool can be used for Bitcoin acquisition, preferred dividends and interest, securities repurchases, and other treasury purposes. ([Decrypt][6]) The strongest counter-argument is that the recent rally has become extremely extended. MSTR rose more than 25% from the August 18 low to the August 24 close, Monday's intraday high reached $127.90, and technical data already flags overbought conditions. ([Raymond James][1]) A failure of BTC to hold the $80,000 area, combined with MSTR falling below roughly $118 and then $114-$115, would invalidate the near-term bullish continuation thesis and shift the seven-day expectation toward $100-$110. There is also a structural valuation/dilution risk: The Block reported that MSTR's enterprise mNAV had contracted sharply earlier in the year and that the company had increasingly emphasized liquidity and preferred-security management; the latest $2 billion common-stock issuance reinforces that this is not simply a leveraged Bitcoin holding. ([The Block][7]) Confidence is 68% because the major independent drivers currently align bullishly: Bitcoin has broken above $80,000, MSTR has broken upward from its August lows on heavy volume, short-term technical structure is positive, and Strategy has accumulated substantial liquidity. I do not use a higher confidence because the seven-day window follows an exceptionally fast 30%+ rebound, MSTR is technically stretched, and the company's continuing share issuance can cap upside through dilution. The 30-day signal is NEUTRAL because the immediate Bitcoin-led recovery is bullish but the larger capital-structure and valuation questions prevent a confident medium-term directional call. The 180-day signal is mildly bullish because Strategy's large BTC treasury and newly expanded cash resources preserve substantial upside exposure if the broader Bitcoin cycle continues, although that longer-horizon view is considerably less certain than the one-week setup.
Grok
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) Retrieved quotes from Upstox, MarketWatch, StockAnalysis, TradeSmith, and others showing Strategy Inc. (MSTR) closed Aug 24 at $122.63 (+2.83%, range 119.38-127.90 on high volume ~40M), with premarket Aug 25 near $122.00-122.11; baseline $122.65 aligns closely. Recent price action: sharp multi-day rally from lows near $92 on Aug 18 after prior weakness. Key news from The Block, CoinDesk, SEC 8-K summaries, Benzinga, and Decrypt (Aug 24): Strategy sold 18.26M shares for ~$2B net (ATM, Aug 17-23), made no BTC purchases/sales (holdings steady at 840,447 BTC, avg cost ~$75,385, now showing ~$2.4B paper profit as BTC rose), boosted USD Reserve to $5.1B and created new $1.59B USD Cash pool (total liquidity ~$6.7B), plus $136M STRC preferred repurchases. Bitcoin context from BusinessToday, Cryptonomist, CryptoRank, CoinMarketCap AI (Aug 25): BTC crossed $80k (first since May, +~25% weekly, driven by ETF inflows ~$1.92B last week, yield relief, short squeeze). Next earnings estimated late Oct (Zacks/Moomoo). (2) Current regime is high-beta momentum recovery tightly coupled to Bitcoin’s sharp rebound; MSTR acts as leveraged BTC proxy with added equity dilution risk from recent ATM activity and elevated realized volatility (daily ranges frequently 5-15%+). Short-term trend is upward after the Aug 18-24 surge, but the stock remains well below 52-week highs near $365 and is sensitive to any BTC mean-reversion. (3) Range measured from the $122.65 baseline and skewed mildly higher to reflect continued BTC strength while allowing for large drawdowns typical of the name. Lower bound near recent multi-day support and a potential 10-15% pullback; upper bound accommodates extension of the recent rally if BTC holds/advances further toward $85k+. Volatility profile (historical daily swings and beta >3) justifies a wide 7-day band without assuming extreme outcomes. (4) Inside the 7-day window: no scheduled earnings; primary catalysts are Bitcoin price action (macro/ETF flows, potential Jackson Hole or yield moves), any further Strategy capital-allocation updates, and broader risk sentiment. The fresh cash build provides flexibility but also signals a pause in aggressive BTC accumulation. (5) Strongest counter-argument is a rapid BTC pullback from overbought levels (daily RSI elevated near 84 in some reports) or renewed equity-market risk-off that hits high-beta names harder than spot BTC, potentially driving MSTR below the lower bound; invalidation of mild bullish would be sustained trade under ~$110 with deteriorating BTC correlation. Dilution from any additional ATM sales is an ongoing overhang. (6) Confidence is low at 32% because the 7-day outlook is dominated by Bitcoin volatility rather than company-specific edge, recent dilution adds uncertainty, and momentum can reverse quickly in either direction; data is partial (solid Aug 24 close and news, current premarket quotes, but no full live session tape for Aug 25 yet).
Gemini — Pro
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) What I found and where: According to live Google search data for August 25, 2026, MSTR is trading at approximately $121.89, very close to the $122.65 baseline. Bitcoin is trading around $79,200 USD based on Robinhood prediction markets for the same date. (2) Market regime: MSTR remains a high-beta proxy for Bitcoin. The current regime is relatively strong but consolidating, with BTC holding near $80,000 as investors position for late-summer macro developments. (3) Price range justification: MSTR exhibits extreme volatility, often moving 10-15% in a single week. Measuring from the $122.65 baseline, a range of $112.00 to $142.00 captures a potential 8-9% downside risk against a 15%+ upside skew, reflecting the underlying structural bull market in crypto assets. (4) Scheduled or likely catalysts: Over the next 7 days, broader macroeconomic data (such as late-August inflation or employment prints) and general BTC spot ETF inflows/outflows will serve as the primary drivers, as MSTR's corporate operations are secondary to its Bitcoin treasury. (5) Counter-argument: The strongest counter-argument is a sudden risk-off macroeconomic shock that triggers a sharp deleveraging in crypto. Because MSTR trades at a premium to its underlying Bitcoin holdings, a BTC pullback could cause MSTR's premium to collapse, invalidating the bullish skew and pushing the stock below $110. (6) Confidence: 60%, because while the medium-term trend for Bitcoin is bullish, forecasting a highly leveraged, volatile proxy like MSTR over a short 7-day window carries inherent noise and vulnerability to sudden crypto market swings.
DeepSeek
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) What I found and where: As of Aug 25, 2026, MSTR is trading at $122.63-$126.63, with the baseline $122.65 closely matching the $122.63 close from Aug 24. In pre-market/early trading on Aug 25, the stock is up ~0.9% to $123.75. Bitcoin has broken above $80,000 for the first time since May 2026, trading at ~$80,800 as of Aug 25 Asian session, up over 20% in the past week. On Aug 24, Strategy Inc filed an 8-K with the SEC disclosing it sold 18.26 million MSTR shares for ~$2.01 billion between Aug 17-23, established a new $1.59 billion 'USD Cash' liquidity pool, and increased its USD Reserve to $5.1 billion. Bitcoin holdings remain unchanged at 840,447 BTC (~4% of total supply), acquired at an average cost of $75,385 per BTC. (2) Current market regime: MSTR is in a strong short-term bullish regime driven by Bitcoin's explosive rally-BTC's 20%+ weekly gain has swung Strategy's BTC holdings from paper losses to ~$2.4 billion in unrealized profit. Technically, MSTR is trading well above its 7-day SMA ($113.79), 20-day SMA ($103.03), and 50-day SMA ($98.62), forming higher lows, higher highs, and higher closes. However, the stock remains in a clear long-term downtrend from its 52-week high of $456.37, with overhead supply near the $139.36 pivot level, so the regime is best described as a short-term bullish breakout within a longer-term bearish structure. (3) Price range justification: The range $128.00-$142.00 is measured from the $122.65 baseline and skewed upward, reflecting the bullish momentum from Bitcoin breaking $80K. The lower bound of $128.00 represents a ~4.4% gain from baseline-this is the first clear resistance level above the current price, as MSTR needs to clear $124.26 to open upside toward $130, and the upper Bollinger Band sits near $122.90. The upper bound of $142.00 (~15.8% gain) reflects the next major resistance at the $139.36 pivot level, which aligns with the high end of what a sustained Bitcoin rally and premium expansion could achieve within 7 days. ATR for MSTR is elevated at ~$6.40, implying daily moves of ~5%; over 7 days, a range of $14 (11.4%) is realistic given the 3x beta of 2.44 and the stock's historical volatility. The range is asymmetric to the upside because the catalyst (BTC breaking $80K) is live and gaining momentum, while downside is cushioned by the newly established $6.69 billion in total USD liquidity (USD Reserve + USD Cash) that signals management's readiness to deploy capital. (4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: The primary catalyst is Bitcoin's continued price action-if BTC sustains above $80K, MSTR's BTC holdings (~$65.8 billion) will continue to revalue higher, and the premium to NAV could expand. No MSTR earnings are scheduled within the 7-day window (next earnings not due until Q3 2026). However, the market is watching for any signal from Strategy on deploying the new $1.59 billion USD Cash pool for additional BTC purchases-such a move would be a significant bullish catalyst. Additionally, options expiration and end-of-month positioning could amplify volatility toward the end of the window. (5) Strongest counter-argument and invalidation: The strongest counter is that Bitcoin's rally may be driven by short covering rather than fundamental demand-some analysts note the move could be unsustainable-and a pullback toward $75K-$77K would quickly erase MSTR's paper profits and compress the premium. Additionally, MSTR's P/S ratio of 77.18x and negative EPS (-$97.21) make it extremely overvalued on traditional metrics, and the recent $2B share sale diluted existing shareholders. The call would be invalidated if Bitcoin breaks below $76,000 or if MSTR fails to hold above $119.00 support, as that would signal the breakout is failing and a mean reversion toward the middle Bollinger Band (~$103) is likely. (6) Confidence attribution: Confidence is 60%-moderate but not high-because while the Bitcoin catalyst is powerful and real (BTC up 20%+ in a week, breaking $80K for the first time in 3 months), MSTR's long-term downtrend, extreme valuation, and the risk of a Bitcoin pullback create meaningful uncertainty. The 7-day window is long enough for momentum to fade or reverse, and MSTR's 2.44 beta amplifies both upside and downside. The newly established USD Cash pool is a positive structural development, but its deployment is uncertain. I weight the short-term bullish momentum and Bitcoin breakout more heavily than the bearish long-term structure, but the conflicting signals keep confidence below 70%.
Claude — Opus
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) WHAT I FOUND AND WHERE. Quote reconciliation: Investing.com's MSTR page shows the stock at $119.25 as of Aug 24 with a day range of $115.80-$121.91 and a 52-week range of $81.81-$365.21. Investing.com separately reported (08/24/2026, 10:49 AM) that shares rose 4.7% Monday; Decrypt's Aug 24 piece carried MSTR +3.35% intraday with BTC at $79,094 (+2.18%). A Robinhood quote page shows an Aug 25 print of $122.60 in a $118.55-$127.90 range, which is consistent with the $122.65 baseline. So the baseline looks like Monday's close or early Tuesday premarket, and I have no anchor dispute. The substantive news is Strategy's 8-K filed Monday Aug 24, reported by Bloomberg (1:37 PM UTC), Decrypt and Investing.com: the company established 'USD Cash', a new $1.59B liquidity pool inside its Digital Credit Capital Framework usable to buy Bitcoin, pay preferred dividends, repurchase securities or repay debt. The same filing discloses that between Aug 17-23 Strategy sold 18,261,118 MSTR shares through its ATM for ~$2.01B net at an average of about $109.88 (versus $96.48 the prior week), used $136.4M to repurchase STRC preferred and $300M to top up the USD Reserve to $5.10B, and made no bitcoin purchases or sales - holdings unchanged at 840,447 BTC at an average cost of $75,385, roughly 4% of supply. Critically, Strategy's own FWP investor briefing dated Aug 23 (SEC EDGAR) states mNAV of 1.01x and $20.319B raised YTD through Aug 23. Next earnings is Nov 4, 2026 (Investing.com) - outside this window. Backdrop: Polymarket's event page notes BTC pushed past $75,000 on Aug 21 amid a White House regulatory meeting and Trump's CLARITY Act push, triggering over $1.25B in short liquidations, and traded near $77,700 on Aug 24 on renewed spot-ETF demand.
(2) REGIME. A deleveraging BTC-proxy whose premium has fully collapsed, inside a bitcoin market that has just turned higher. The single most important number I found is mNAV at 1.01x. For most of this company's history the equity traded at a large premium to net asset value, and that premium was the engine: issue stock above NAV, buy BTC, raise bitcoin-per-share. At parity that flywheel stops working - issuance is no longer accretive, it is close to a pure share-count increase. And yet issuance has accelerated, not stopped: $2.01B sold in a single week, roughly 18.3M shares against average daily volume of about 28-32M (Investing.com/Robinhood). That is a large, mechanical, price-insensitive seller standing over the tape every week. Simultaneously the fundamental floor has firmed: with BTC near $79,000 against a $75,385 average cost, the position is above water, net leverage is described as ~0%, and there is now $6.69B of USD assets ($5.10B Reserve + $1.59B Cash). So the setup is genuinely two-sided - improving asset backing and BTC momentum against relentless equity supply and a dead premium. That is why I read this as regime-ambiguous rather than trending.
(3) PRICE RANGE. MSTR's realized volatility is extreme: from a 52-week high of $365.21 to a low of $81.81, with the stock roughly doubling off the low and TipRanks noting a 22.08% rise in a recent stretch. Daily moves of 3-6% are routine (Monday alone was +3% to +4.7%), so a 7-day 1-sigma is comfortably in the 15-18% region. I set $103.00-$141.00, about -16% and +15% from the $122.65 baseline. The mild downward skew is deliberate but small: it reflects the ATM overhang and the fact that $109.88 was last week's average issuance price, meaning the company is a willing seller well below current levels and will likely keep printing into strength. On the upside, $141 sits above the recent high-water marks without assuming a BTC breakout. Reference levels I am using: the 52-week low at $81.81 as the structural floor (far outside this window), the ~$115-$118 area that has repeatedly caught the stock in recent sessions, and $109.88 as the level the company itself has been happy to sell at.
(4) CATALYSTS INSIDE THE WINDOW. The window runs Aug 25 to Sep 1. First, the weekly 8-K: Strategy has filed a BTC/ATM update every Monday (Aug 3, Aug 10, Aug 17, Aug 24 per EDGAR), so a further disclosure lands Monday Aug 31 - and the live question is whether the new $1.59B USD Cash pool gets deployed into bitcoin. Strategy has not bought BTC since June (Decrypt), so a resumption of buying would be a genuine narrative catalyst. Second, macro: Nvidia's fiscal Q2 on Wednesday Aug 26 after the close, core PCE, and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole Friday Aug 28 all sit inside the window and all transmit to MSTR through the risk-asset and long-end-yield channel. Third, month-end Aug 31 - worth noting because CryptoTimes flagged that MSTR has closed August red for four consecutive years (-16.8% in 2025, -18.0% in 2024, -18.4% in 2023, -19.1% in 2022). I do not weight seasonality heavily, but with only a few sessions left in the month it is a real, if weak, consideration. Fourth, BTC itself, which is the dominant driver and unforecastable over seven days.
(5) COUNTER-ARGUMENT AND INVALIDATION. The strongest case against my NEUTRAL is that bitcoin has clear upward momentum with a policy tailwind - a White House meeting with SEC Chair Atkins, the CLARITY Act push, $1.25B of shorts already liquidated and ETF inflows returning - and MSTR is a levered, high-beta expression of exactly that. If BTC runs from $79k toward $90k, MSTR does not go up 15%, it goes up 30%+ and my upper bound is badly wrong. There is also a specific bullish trigger: deployment of the $1.59B USD Cash into BTC, plus the $1.0B remaining MSTR repurchase authorization, would flip the company from net share issuer to net buyer, which is the single change that would most improve this setup. Conversely, my range fails downside if BTC retraces toward the $63-64k area where Strategy was selling coins earlier in August, since at 1.01x mNAV the equity has almost no premium cushion left to absorb it. Concretely: I would abandon NEUTRAL for bullish if the Aug 31 8-K shows meaningful BTC accumulation and a pause in ATM issuance; I would turn bearish if issuance runs above ~$2B again while mNAV slips below 1.0x, because sub-NAV issuance is straightforwardly dilutive and typically forces the discount wider.
(6) CONFIDENCE. 46% is low on purpose. My honest read is that the two dominant forces here are close to offsetting in magnitude and opposite in sign - BTC momentum up, equity supply relentless - and neither resolves inside seven days on any schedule I can see. Layer on the fact that MSTR's seven-day distribution is genuinely fat-tailed (this is a stock that has moved 20%+ in a week repeatedly this year), and any point estimate of direction would be false precision. I also cannot claim full currency: my substantive reporting and filings run through Aug 24, and the baseline is Aug 25 11:47 UTC, so I have not verified Tuesday's premarket tape or overnight BTC - hence 'partial' rather than 'live', and hence I would treat the Robinhood Aug 25 range with some caution. The 30d MILD BEARISH is my only directional call and rests on one durable structural fact rather than on price action: at ~1.01x mNAV, weekly multi-billion-dollar ATM issuance is no longer accretive and represents persistent supply. The 180d NEUTRAL is an explicit abstention - over that horizon MSTR is a leveraged bitcoin bet, and I have no defensible six-month view on bitcoin.
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