This is ForecastNest’s 4 hours forecast for SOXL, created 2026-08-27 18:30 UTC. The window closed 2026-08-28 16:00 UTC, when SOXL closed at $113.51, down 5.1% from $119.59 when the forecast was made. It traded between $110.64 and $123.59 along the way (-7.5% to +3.3%).
Prediction window: Existing Mode 1 horizon rules apply; the stored expiry is authoritative.
Prediction time: 2026-08-27 18:30 UTC (8/27/2026, 2:30:28 PM EDT).
Valid until: 2026-08-28 16:00 UTC (8/28/2026, 12:00:00 PM EDT). Target session: 2026-08-28 (New York); During session. Lead time to expiry: 21.49 elapsed hours. Timing: Regular session. Based on stored prediction time, not verified model execution time.
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4 of the 5 models called a direction, and 2 of those calls were right.
Below are the details.
| Model | Range | Move | Confidence | Price it found | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ChatGPT — GPT-5 | $115.00–$130.00 | -3.8% to +8.7% | 72% | — | 13.2 | wrong |
| Gemini — Pro | $114.50–$122.50 | -4.3% to +2.4% | 50% | — | 79.3 | right |
| DeepSeek | $123.50–$132.00 | +3.3% to +10.4% | 65% | — | 37.1 | wrong |
| Claude — Opus | $114.20–$123.30 | -4.5% to +3.1% | 56% | — | 79.9 | right |
| Grok | $114.50–$124.50 | -4.3% to +4.1% | 42% | — | 50.3 | no call |
How these models have done on SOXL over 4 hours
This forecast is settled and is included in the statistics below. The remaining records are forecasts created before 2026-08-27 18:30 UTC. Only settled directional calls count toward accuracy.
| Model | Asked | Still open | No call | Called up | Called down | Right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gemini — Pro | 3 | — | 0 | — | 3 · 3 right | 100% (3/3) |
| Claude — Opus | 3 | — | 0 | — | 3 · 3 right | 100% (3/3) |
| Grok | 3 | — | 1 | — | 2 · 2 right | 100% (2/2) |
| DeepSeek | 3 | — | 0 | 1 · 0 right | 2 · 2 right | 67% (2/3) |
| ChatGPT — GPT-5 | 3 | — | 0 | 2 · 0 right | 1 · 1 right | 33% (1/3) |
Every published SOXL forecast these models made over 4 hours before this question was asked, on 2026-08-27 18:30 UTC, plus this settled forecast. Forecasts created after this question are excluded. Results reflect the settlements available when this article is generated. A day-ahead call and a week-ahead one are counted separately — they are different questions. Only settled forecasts are graded, so open + no call + up + down adds up to asked. “No call” is a range too centred on the price to be pointing anywhere. Accuracy counts only forecasts that have settled, and the count behind it is shown beside it — a single right call is not a 100% record.
What each model said
ChatGPT — GPT-5
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) What I found: The latest market data available on August 27 shows SOXL closed August 26 at $116.60, after trading from $112.53 to $117.39 on 39.92M shares; the August 25 close was $115.67. Investing.com reports a pre-market indication of $125.10, although the supplied $119.59 baseline remains the required forecast anchor. MarketBeat independently confirms the August 26 close and recent trading range. ([Investing.com][1])
(2) Market regime: The regime has shifted sharply from correction toward bullish rebound. The decisive catalyst is Nvidia's August 27 earnings reaction: Reuters reports Nvidia shares rising 6.8% after stronger-than-expected results and a forecast for roughly 70% revenue growth next fiscal year, triggering a broad semiconductor rally. Reuters also reports the Nasdaq up 1.19% and S&P 500 up 0.58% on August 27. ([Reuters][2]) This is particularly important for SOXL because its leveraged semiconductor exposure makes it highly sensitive to broad chip-sector momentum. The current regime is therefore bullish momentum/repricing, although the move is extended and vulnerable to profit-taking.
(3) Price range: I anchor the forecast strictly to $119.59. The recent verified SOXL range is exceptionally volatile: August 24 closed at $111.16 after a $106.00-$115.07 session, August 25 closed at $115.67, and August 26 closed at $116.60 after reaching $117.39. ([MarketBeat][3]) The current pre-market indication of $125.10 is already roughly 4.6% above the baseline, so the upside tail needs to be wider than it would be under ordinary conditions. I expect $115-$130 over the four-hour window, with the upper side deliberately expanded because Nvidia's surprise strength can produce rapid semiconductor-sector repricing. $115 is the principal downside boundary near the recent $112.53-$117.39 trading area, while $125-$130 represents a plausible continuation zone if the opening rally attracts additional momentum. I would not assume that the $130 area must be reached; it represents the upper end of a realistic high-volatility outcome.
(4) Catalysts: The primary catalyst is already active: Nvidia's earnings and forward outlook have substantially strengthened the AI/semiconductor narrative. Reuters reports that Nvidia's results generated a roughly $150 billion rally across AI-related chip stocks, while AP reports Nvidia up 8.9% and the Nasdaq up 1.4% during Thursday trading. ([Reuters][2]) The next major macro catalyst is Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech, which markets are watching for monetary-policy guidance. ([Reuters][4]) Because the forecast window is only four hours, the U.S. regular-session opening and immediate continuation/fade of the Nvidia-led semiconductor rally matter more than longer-term catalysts.
(5) Counter-argument and invalidation: The strongest bearish argument is that SOXL has already moved sharply from its August 24 low and that the current pre-market indication near $125 represents a rapid repricing. Profit-taking, a reversal in Nvidia after the initial earnings reaction, or a hawkish interpretation of Jackson Hole could quickly push SOXL back toward $115-$118. The bullish call would be weakened substantially if SOXL cannot hold roughly $115-$117 after the regular-session opening, while a decisive move back below the August 26 low of $112.53 would invalidate the immediate momentum thesis. Conversely, sustained trading above $125 with strong semiconductor breadth would strengthen the case for $130 or higher.
(6) Confidence: Confidence is 72% because the most important information for a four-hour SOXL forecast is unusually aligned: Nvidia delivered a major upside earnings surprise, semiconductor stocks are rallying broadly, Nasdaq futures and the Nasdaq index are strong, and SOXL itself has already begun repricing upward. ([Reuters][2]) I stop at 72% rather than using a very high figure because SOXL is a 3x daily leveraged ETF and its intraday volatility can overwhelm even a correct sector-direction call. The 4h and 1d signals are bullish because the immediate catalyst strongly favors continuation; 7d, 30d and 180d remain only mildly bullish because valuation, rates, policy uncertainty and the possibility of a post-earnings reversal create meaningful longer-horizon risks.
Gemini — Pro
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) What I found and where: As the baseline timestamp is set in August 2026, my real-time search tools could not retrieve corresponding forward-dated live market data. Therefore, this analysis is based on the structural mechanics of the ETF and historical late-August semiconductor sector behavior, marking data access as 'stale'.
(2) Market regime: SOXL is a 3x leveraged instrument tracking the ICE Semiconductor Index. Over a 4-hour intraday window spanning the afternoon trading session and into the market close, the regime is typically dominated by algorithmic rebalancing, intraday momentum, and day-trader positioning rather than fundamental shifts.
(3) Price range: Measuring from the $119.59 baseline, I project a range of $114.50-$122.50. A 3x leveraged ETF can easily experience 3-5% intraday swings. This range is skewed slightly to the downside to account for potential late-day profit-taking or risk-off fading into the daily close, which is common in high-beta tech instruments.
(4) Catalysts: Within this specific 4-hour window, the primary drivers will be the regular US market close (4:00 PM EDT / 20:00 UTC) and the mandatory daily rebalancing flows of leveraged ETFs. Any lingering volatility from late-August semiconductor earnings releases (typically Nvidia) will also heavily influence intraday swings.
(5) Counter-argument: The strongest counter-argument to a late-day fade is a sudden surge in broader Nasdaq or semiconductor risk appetite into the close. If institutional buyers step in to accumulate shares, it could spark a quick rally, pushing SOXL well above the $123 level and invalidating the downside skew.
(6) Confidence: My confidence is 50%. Forecasting a 3x leveraged asset over a 4-hour micro-timeframe is inherently subject to high variance and market noise, and lacking live order flow or current news data limits directional conviction.
DeepSeek
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) What I found and where: As of baseline (18:30 UTC on Aug 27), I retrieved live market data from multiple sources. WSJ shows SOXL at $130.00 as of the prior regular session close, with a 1-day range of $130.00-$143.45. However, the baseline of $119.59 is materially lower than the last quoted price-this reflects a sharp gap-down or stale print, but I anchor the range to the baseline per instructions. The key catalyst is Nvidia's Q2 FY2027 earnings, released after-hours on Aug 26: revenue hit $96.22B (up 106% YoY), beating consensus of $92.38B, with Q3 guidance of ~$108B vs ~$104B expected. SOXL soared 7.3% in after-hours trading immediately following the report. Korean retail investors have been massive buyers, net purchasing $2.33B of SOXL over the past month and holding ~30% of the ETF's total AUM. (2) Current market regime: The semiconductor sector is in a strong short-term bullish regime driven by Nvidia's blowout earnings and upbeat FY2028 revenue guidance (+70% vs 45% expected). Pre-market trading on Aug 27 shows semiconductor stocks broadly higher: NVDA +7%, MU +4%, SNDK +5%. However, the 4h chart faces resistance at the $125 level-price is "nailed to the 125 previous high threshold" and needs to break through for the next leg up. Longer-term, SOXL remains in a bearish structure, having collapsed 63% since June 22, 2026. (3) Price range justification: The range $123.50-$132.00 is measured from the $119.59 baseline and skewed upward, reflecting the bullish catalyst. The lower bound of $123.50 represents a ~3.3% gain from baseline-this is just below the $125 resistance level that needs to be cleared. The upper bound of $132.00 (~10.4% gain) reflects the potential for a continuation of the after-hours rally (SOXL was up 7.3% post-earnings) plus additional momentum from pre-market strength. Given SOXL's 3x leverage, a 3-4% move in the underlying semiconductor index can translate to 9-12% in SOXL, making this range realistic. The 4h ATR for SOXL is elevated given recent volatility, supporting a wide range. (4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: The primary catalyst is the regular session open at 13:30 UTC-the market's full reaction to Nvidia's earnings will play out over the next 4 hours. Pre-market indications are strongly positive, with Nasdaq futures up over 1%. No other major economic releases are scheduled within this 4-hour window (ends 22:30 UTC). (5) Strongest counter-argument and invalidation: The strongest risk is that the post-earnings rally may already be fully priced in, and profit-taking could emerge at the open, especially given the sharp 7.3% after-hours move. Additionally, the $125 resistance level is a known hurdle-if price fails to break and hold above it, a pullback toward $119-$120 is possible. The call would be invalidated if SOXL breaks below $119.00 on the 4h close, signaling that the bullish catalyst has been exhausted and sellers are in control. (6) Confidence attribution: Confidence is 65%-moderately high but not above 70%-because while the Nvidia catalyst is overwhelmingly positive and real, the 4-hour window is extremely short and SOXL's leveraged nature amplifies both upside and downside. The baseline of $119.59 is well below the prevailing market price (~$130 as of last close), creating anchor mismatch uncertainty. I weight the bullish catalyst and pre-market strength heavily, but the resistance at $125 and the risk of a 'sell the news' reaction keep confidence below 70%.
Claude — Opus
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) What I found, and where: Investing.com's SOXL page, dated Aug 27, shows the fund at $119.37 against a previous close of $116.60, with a day range of $117.69-$124.88 and a last premarket print of $123.31. That reconciles cleanly with the $119.59 baseline - no anchor dispute - but the shape matters more than the level: SOXL gapped up hard, tagged $124.88, and has since given back nearly the entire move, sitting close to the session low rather than the high. The driver was Nvidia's fiscal Q2 FY27 report Wednesday after the close. Kiplinger's live blog reports record data center revenue of $89.02 billion, up 116.6% year over year, on the Blackwell Ultra ramp, and CNBC's Thursday live blog has CFO Colette Kress guiding to 70% revenue growth for fiscal 2028, with NVDA up 7.4% premarket, Marvell +5.8%, Micron +4.5%, SMH +3.5% and SOXX +3%.
(2) The current market regime as I read it: A blowout catalyst that the sector is failing to hold - narrow, top-heavy strength rather than a broad risk-on impulse. The 24/7 Wall St. quote board as of Aug 27 tells the story: NVDA +9.12%, AVGO +3.62%, INTC +3.07%, but AMD -1.42% and MU -2.73%, with SOXX up only 1.22%. In other words, essentially the entire index gain is one name, while memory and AMD are outright red on the best possible news for the complex. Compare that with the premarket prints CNBC recorded - SOXX indicated +3%, Micron +4.5% - and the intraday fade is unmistakable. Note also that this comes after real damage: TradingView shows SOXL's NAV down 14.25% over the past month, and Monday's session gapped the fund down hard. A failed gap on the sector's defining catalyst, into a still-broken trend, is distribution behaviour, not a base.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility I am using: The window runs 18:30-22:30 UTC, which is the final 90 minutes of the cash session plus roughly two and a half hours of thin after-hours trade. The cash portion carries almost all the risk. Today's realized cash range is $117.69-$124.88, about 6.1% - wide even for a 3x product, and consistent with SOXL's roughly 3% hourly ATR in this regime. For 90 minutes of closing-bell trade I use about 2.5-3% of 1-sigma movement and widen modestly for month-end and pre-PCE flows. I set $114.20-$123.30, about -4.5% below and +3.1% above the baseline. The downward skew is deliberate: the upper bound sits below today's $124.88 high because reclaiming it would require the fade to fully reverse in the last hour on a day the sector has already rejected that level once, while the lower bound sits under $117.69 because a session low made mid-afternoon on fading breadth is more often revisited than defended.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: Very little that is scheduled - no tier-one US data lands in the final 90 minutes. What is live: the closing auction itself, which on a big-gap day frequently determines whether the fade completes or gets bought; month-end index and rebalancing flow, with Aug 31 two sessions away; and positioning ahead of Friday, when core PCE prints and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh speaks at Jackson Hole. The after-hours portion of my window is largely inert for SOXL - Investing.com shows an after-hours print of $124.74, but leveraged-ETF extended-hours liquidity is thin enough that I would not read direction into it. Broadcom and Marvell results land within days of Nvidia per pre-earnings previews, which is a 7-day consideration, not a today one.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate my call: The bull case is straightforward and serious - Nvidia's numbers and the 70% FY2028 growth guide are unambiguously good, and gap-fades on genuinely strong fundamental news often find a bid into the close as underweight funds buy the dip they were waiting for. If the last hour reclaims $122 and the close prints near the highs, my read is simply wrong, and a 3x product would clear my upper bound quickly. The specific invalidation: SOXL holding above the VWAP-ish $121 area through the final hour with SOXX breadth improving - particularly Micron and AMD turning green - would mark this as consolidation rather than distribution. My range also fails to the downside if the fade accelerates into the auction, since a 2% SOXX decline is a 6% SOXL decline and $114.20 offers no cushion against a disorderly close.
(6) Why my confidence is the number it is: 56% is modest and deliberately so. The evidence I have is genuinely current and the intraday pattern - gap to $124.88, fade to near $117.69, breadth carried by one stock - is a real, observable signal rather than an inference. What holds confidence down is that a 90-minute closing window is short, closing auctions are notoriously mean-reverting, and I am effectively betting that a fade continues rather than resolves, which historically is closer to 55/45 than to anything I would call an edge. My 1d, 7d and 30d NEUTRAL calls are honest abstentions: with the sector's biggest catalyst now behind us and Broadcom, Marvell, PCE and Jackson Hole ahead, the distribution of outcomes is wide and I have no defensible directional read. The 180d MILD BULLISH rests on the AI capex trend that Nvidia's guidance just reaffirmed, heavily tempered by the daily-rebalance decay that makes 3x instruments structurally poor holds through exactly this kind of high-volatility chop.
Grok
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Live quotes from CNBC, Zacks, ETF.com, ChartExchange and others show SOXL trading near $120-122 on 2026-08-27 (prior close ~$116.60, day range roughly $117.69-$124.88). Baseline $119.59 sits inside that band. Reuters/Politico (27 Aug) report Trump admin weighing broader semiconductor tariffs covering chips plus downstream products (servers, laptops); White House called it speculative. BofA (via Invezz 26 Aug) flagged another ~10% SOX downside risk from positioning. Korean retail net-bought >$890m SOXL in prior week (MK reports). Sector remains volatile after June peak near $302 and July-Aug drawdown.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: High-beta leveraged semiconductor exposure amid AI CapEx optimism colliding with tariff/geopolitical overhang and crowded long positioning. Daily ranges of 5-10%+ are common; 3x structure amplifies any SOX move. Near-term tape is choppy with mixed flows rather than a clean trend.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored at baseline $119.59. Recent realized volatility and day ranges support a ±4-5% band over the remaining session + after-hours (roughly $114.50-$124.50). Skew is modestly wider on the downside given fresh tariff headlines; upside limited by late-session mean-reversion risk in a leveraged product.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: No major scheduled earnings or data releases in the next 4 hours. The Politico tariff story is the live event risk; any official clarification or further reporting could move the group. After-hours liquidity is thinner, so gaps possible on any follow-through commentary.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: Strong Korean retail buying and residual AI narrative could keep the bid firm into the close, pushing above the upper bound. Invalidation would be a sharp SOX rebound on tariff denial or positive hyperscaler commentary, or conversely a faster sell-off if tariff details harden.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: 4-hour windows on 3x ETFs are dominated by noise and order-flow; live data confirms price and the tariff headline but offers limited edge on direction. Confidence is therefore modest and deliberately not higher.
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