This is ForecastNest’s 1 day forecast for NVDA, created 2026-09-25 15:10 UTC. The window closed 2026-09-28 15:10 UTC, when NVDA closed at $230.49, up 2.7% from $224.35 when the forecast was made. It traded between $223.31 and $233.21 along the way (-0.5% to +3.9%).
Prediction window: Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.
Prediction time: 2026-09-25 15:10 UTC (9/25/2026, 11:10:06 AM EDT).
Valid until: 2026-09-28 15:10 UTC (9/28/2026, 11:10:06 AM EDT). Target session: 2026-09-28 (New York); During session. Lead time to expiry: 72 elapsed hours. Timing: Regular session. Based on stored prediction time, not verified model execution time.
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4 of the 7 models called a direction, and 3 of those calls were right. Each model is also asked to find the price it was forecasting from when it answers, shown as the dashed line inside its box in the picture below. Every model found it accurately.
Below are the details.
| Model | Range | Move | Confidence | Price it found | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | $220.00–$231.00 | -2.0% to +2.9% | 57% | $224.54 | 81.0 | right |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | $221.00–$228.00 | -1.6% to +1.5% | 60% | $224.53 | 49.9 | no call |
| Perplexity | $220.00–$228.00 | -2.0% to +1.6% | 48% | $224.40 | 11.0 | wrong |
| Grok 4.5 | $220.00–$229.00 | -2.0% to +2.0% | 42% | $224.55 | 50.5 | no call |
| Claude Opus 5.5 | $218.50–$231.50 | -2.9% to +2.9% | 55% | $225.00 | 52.5 | no call |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | $221.50–$228.50 | -1.4% to +1.8% | 56% | $224.54 | 77.1 | right |
| DeepSeek | $222.00–$232.00 | -1.6% to +2.8% | 62% | $225.64 | 82.1 | right |
How these models have done on NVDA over 1 day
This forecast is settled and is included in the statistics below. The remaining records are forecasts created before 2026-09-25 15:10 UTC. Only settled directional calls count toward accuracy.
| Model | Asked | Still open | No call | Called up | Called down | Right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muse Spark 1.1 | 8 | — | 1 | 3 · 3 right | 4 · 2 right | 71% (5/7) |
| GPT-5.6 Sol | 8 | — | 1 | 6 · 4 right | 1 · 0 right | 57% (4/7) |
| Claude Opus 5.5 | 7 | — | 3 | 3 · 2 right | 1 · 0 right | 50% (2/4) |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | 8 | — | 3 | 3 · 1 right | 2 · 1 right | 40% (2/5) |
| DeepSeek | 7 | — | 1 | 5 · 2 right | 1 · 0 right | 33% (2/6) |
| Grok 4.5 | 7 | — | 4 | 1 · 0 right | 2 · 0 right | 0% (0/3) |
| Perplexity | 2 | — | 0 | — | 2 · 0 right | 0% (0/2) |
| Claude Sonnet 4.5 | 1 | — | 0 | 1 · 0 right | — | 0% (0/1) |
Every published NVDA forecast over 1 day before this question was asked, on 2026-09-25 15:10 UTC, plus this settled forecast. Forecasts created after this question are excluded. Results reflect the settlements available when this article is generated. A day-ahead call and a week-ahead one are counted separately — they are different questions. Only settled forecasts are graded, so open + no call + up + down adds up to asked. “No call” is a range too centred on the price to be pointing anywhere. Accuracy counts only forecasts that have settled, and the count behind it is shown beside it — a single right call is not a 100% record.
What each model said
GPT-5.6 Sol
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) What I found: StatMuse reported NVDA's latest price at approximately $224.54 on September 25, while Yahoo Finance showed the September 24 regular-session close at $224.58 after a $221.09-$224.94 range. I therefore use $224.54 as the best available price near the 15:10 UTC baseline, but label data access partial because the retrieved quote did not expose an exact 15:10 UTC timestamp. :chatgpt-content-reference{index=
Gemini 1.5 Pro
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) Live pricing sourced via Google Search from TradingView and NASDAQ data (https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NASDAQ-NVDA/) places NVDA at $224.53 as of 15:10 UTC on September 25, 2026. The stock has remained bound within a $215-$230 range throughout the latter half of the month.
(2) The current market regime reflects high-level consolidation. Tech equities are holding near recent highs, but buyers are showing mild exhaustion, preferring to range-trade rather than push for immediate breakouts without fresh fundamental data.
(3) The 1-day price range of $221.00-$228.00 is justified by recent intraday volatility. Support is well-established near $221, a level that has attracted buyers repeatedly this week, while overhead supply near $228 caps short-term upside momentum.
(4) There are no major scheduled catalysts within the immediate 24-hour window, particularly as the market moves into the weekend. Price action will likely be dictated by broader index flows and standard Friday afternoon positioning.
(5) The strongest counter-argument to this consolidation view is a sudden macro shock or weekend headline risk that could gap the stock below the $220 floor by Monday's open, invalidating the mild bullish stance.
(6) Confidence is set at 60% because single-day forecasts, especially those leading into a weekend close, are heavily subjected to random flow noise rather than structural fundamental shifts.
Perplexity
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) Market regime: NVDA is trading near $224.40 around the requested 15:10 UTC window, with available September 25 reporting placing the session range approximately between $221.09 and $224.94 or, on another feed, $223.13 and $226.94. The prior regular-session close was reported near $224.58, indicating a broadly flat-to-soft short-term tape rather than a decisive breakout.
(2) Technical synthesis: The stock remains in a structurally strong medium-term regime: NVIDIA had risen roughly 33% over the prior year, while recent reporting described revenue of $96.2 billion for fiscal second quarter 2027, up 106% year over year. However, the one-day signal is less clear because price is consolidating below the reported record area near $235.74 and intraday volatility has been two-sided.
(3) Price range: For the next one-day window, I estimate a likely trading envelope of $220-$228, centered slightly below the observed price because the immediate tape is soft and the stock is below its recent high. The lower bound represents a test of the recent $220 area; the upper bound allows for a rebound toward the $225-$227 region seen in current-session data.
(4) Catalysts: NVIDIA's latest reported quarterly results and forward-growth commentary remain the dominant fundamental backdrop. The company also announced recent strategic activity, including a collaboration with Palantir on sovereign AI supply chains, while its investor-relations calendar shows no major earnings release scheduled inside this one-day forecast window; the latest listed financial-community event was the September 10 Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference.
(5) Counter-argument: Continued AI infrastructure demand or a fresh positive company or sector headline could quickly push NVDA back toward $228 and potentially the prior high near $235.74. Conversely, a break below the recent $220 area, especially with broader technology weakness, would invalidate the mild short-term downside bias and widen the likely range lower.
(6) Confidence: Confidence is 48% because the medium-term fundamental trend is supportive, but the one-day horizon is dominated by noise, conflicting delayed/current quote feeds, and limited evidence of a scheduled catalyst exactly within the window. The neutral 1h and 1d signals reflect that uncertainty, while the mild bearish 4h view captures the immediate consolidation and mild weakness.
Grok 4.5
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Live quotes from StockAnalysis, CNBC, Yahoo Finance, Investing.com and others as of market open 25 Sep 2026 show NVDA near $224.50-$224.58 (prev close $224.58, day range so far ~$223.13-$226.94). Technicals from Stoxline, TECHi, FXEmpire and Trendlyne indicate RSI ~54-56, MACD positive but flattening, price above 20/50/200-day MAs ($221-$216-$199), support near $221-$217, resistance $227-$234. Recent news includes strong Q2 FY27 results (rev $96.2B, +106% YoY) with $108B Q3 guide and ~70% FY28 growth outlook (NVIDIA release 26 Aug), Vera Rubin production ramp, and ongoing AI demand commentary.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: Constructive consolidation after post-earnings gains. Broader AI infrastructure demand remains intact with supply constraints still cited as the limiter rather than demand saturation. Short-term tape is range-bound with balanced momentum; longer-term structure stays bullish on the multi-year AI factory buildout narrative.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to the live ~$224.55 print. ATR around $6 and recent daily ranges of $3-$8 support a one-day band of roughly $220-$229. Downside room to the 20-day MA / prior support zone near $221-$217; upside to recent highs and first resistance near $227-$230. The range is modestly skewed higher to reflect the mild positive bias from MA alignment and residual post-earnings momentum rather than pure symmetry.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: No major company-specific events on 25-26 Sep. Dividend payment is 1 Oct; next earnings estimated mid-to-late November. Near-term noise possible from broader market, China/trade headlines, or secondary AI commentary, but nothing scheduled that is NVDA-specific within the 1-day window.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: A sudden risk-off move in tech or negative AI/China headlines could push price through $220 support toward the mid-$210s, flipping the short-term bias. Equally, a sharp breakout above $230 on volume would invalidate the neutral-to-mild range view in favor of stronger upside continuation.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: 42% reflects solid live price and technical data but inherent one-day equity noise, absence of a decisive catalyst, and mixed short-term oscillator readings that leave direction close to a coin-flip outside the broader constructive backdrop.
Claude Opus 5.5
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) What I found, and where: Investing.com (https://www.investing.com/equities/nvidia-corp) has a snapshot dated Sep 25, 2026. It shows NVDA at 224.58 with a previous close of 224.58, a day range of 221.09-224.94, a pre-market print near 225.53, a 52-week range of 164.27-236.54, and the next earnings report on Nov 25, 2026. Yahoo Finance (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/history/) shows a Sep 23 close of 225.51, down 1.47%. Stocktwits (https://stocktwits.com/symbol/NVDA) shows roughly +0.7% on the day with market cap near $5.43T. MacroTrends (https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/NVDA/nvidia/stock-price-history) lists the all-time closing high at 235.20 on May 14, 2026. I could not get a quote stamped exactly at 15:10 UTC, so $225.00 is my best estimate of the mid-session price from these same-day snapshots. That is why data_access is partial.
(2) Current market regime: NVDA is range-bound in the low-to-mid 220s, about 4-5% below its 52-week high of 236.54. Investing.com's one-month history for 08/24-09/24 shows a range of 207.25-234.76 with an average near 220, so price sits slightly above the middle of its recent range. Fundamentals are strong: fiscal Q2 revenue was $96.2B, up 106% YoY, and Q3 guidance is about $108B (Investing.com and Yahoo Finance summaries). Near-term sentiment is mixed. CNN/TipRanks headlines mention a semiconductor pre-market slide on Sep 23, a director selling about $300M of stock, and Michael Burry adding to AI-related shorts (https://www.cnn.com/markets/stocks/NVDA).
(3) Price range justification: I assume roughly 38-45% annualized volatility, which gives a one-trading-day 1-sigma move of about 2.4-2.8%, or $5.5-6.3. The window runs from Friday late morning to the following Monday late morning, so it adds weekend gap risk to about one full session. The range $218.50-$231.50 is about -2.9% / +2.9% around $225. That is roughly symmetric on purpose, because I hold no one-day directional view. Reference levels: support near 221 (this week's intraday lows) and 207-210 (the one-month low); resistance near 229-230 and then 234.8-236.5 (the one-month and 52-week highs).
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: NVIDIA has no company-specific scheduled event; earnings are not until Nov 25, 2026 (Investing.com). The window includes Friday's remaining session, the weekend, and Monday's open. Drivers are therefore likely to be macro data, end-of-quarter window dressing and rebalancing into the Sep 30 quarter end, sector read-throughs from recent memory and semiconductor news, and any weekend headlines on export policy or AI capex. I have not verified a specific macro release inside the window.
(5) Strongest counter-argument and invalidation: The bull case is the combination of 100%+ revenue growth, 58 of 59 analysts rated Buy, and an average target near 327.70 (Investing.com), with quarter-end buying pushing price toward the 230s. A decisive break above about 230 would weaken the neutral read. The bear case is that semiconductor weakness earlier this week, insider selling, and prominent short positioning start a leg lower. A break below 221 would open a path to the mid-210s and invalidate the neutral view on the downside.
(6) Why confidence is 55%: The range is about 1.1-1.2 sigma wide, which by itself implies roughly a 70-75% chance of containing the outcome under normal conditions. I haircut that for three reasons: weekend gap risk, the heavy-tailed behaviour of a mega-cap AI bellwether in a headline-driven tape, and the uncertainty in my own current_price estimate, which was not captured at exactly 15:10 UTC. The direction signals are neutral through 7 days because the evidence does not support a short-horizon call. The 30-day signal is mildly bullish only because of the fundamental and consensus backdrop and the approach of pre-earnings positioning.
Muse Spark 1.1
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Finnhub real-time quote as of Sep 25 shows Current Price 224.54, Open 225.13, High 226.94, Low 223.13, Previous Close 224.58, change -0.04. LiteFinance snapshot as of 25.09.2026 reports NVDA trading at $224.61 with -0.41% over 24h. Finbold intraday quote $223.46 -0.50%. Consensus live price cluster $224.5-$224.6. Returns: 5-day +4.97%, 1-month +5.39%, YTD +20.4% from same Finnhub page.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: NVDA in a stabilizing uptrend after May all-time high $236.37, now ~5% below ATH, holding above $223 support intraday. High beta 2.22 indicates amplified market sensitivity but volume profile 156M on recent rally day suggests institutional accumulation despite insider Rule 10b5-1 sales reported by MarketBeat. Q2 13F flows mixed but net institutional buying (BIP Wealth +31.9%, R Squared +802.8%) offsets trims. No major index break, semiconductors leading.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Using today's range 223.13-226.94 = 1.7% true range and ATR proxy ~$4.5. Anchored at 224.54, setting lower bound at 221.50 (prior swing low and -1.35% below) and upper at 228.50 (above today's high, +1.76% above). Skew mildly bullish (+$3.96 up vs -$3.04 down) reflecting 5-day momentum +4.97% and close near flat, implying buyers defending dips. One-day move of ~1.5-2% is typical for NVDA even in low VIX.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: 1-day window ending Sep 26 15:10 UTC is Friday to Saturday market closed period, so only Friday afternoon US session remains. No NVDA earnings scheduled; earnings season is late October. Macro catalyst is US market close and options expiration flows on Friday. News feed shows only 13F filing updates and Needham Buy reiteration Sep 5, no product launch or regulatory headline dated Sep 25. Risk of end-of-week profit taking after +4.97% 5-day run.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: Bear case is intraday failure at 226.94 resistance with small negative change -0.0178% signaling exhaustion, plus pre-arranged insider selling (EVP Timothy Teter $6.8M) reported Sep 25 that could weigh on sentiment. If NVDA breaks below 223.13 low on rising volume or Nasdaq sells off, range shifts to $218-$223. Invalidation is a close below $221.50 or above $228.50 on heavy volume.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Confidence 56% reflects low directional edge over 1 day (noise dominates) but higher conviction on range containment given tight intraday spread and absence of scheduled catalyst. Data access is live (quotes dated Sep 25 2026), but limited news flow for next 24h reduces predictability. Hence MILD BULLISH not BULLISH for 1d, with modest width $7.00 to capture ~1.5x daily ATR.
DeepSeek
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) What I found: NVDA is trading at $225.64 in pre-market as of 7:08 AM EDT on September 25, 2026, per StockAnalysis.com, up 0.47% from the previous close of $224.58. The intraday range on September 24 was approximately $221.09-$224.90. The 50-day moving average is $215.62 and the 200-day is $199.28. RSI is 54.72. The stock is up roughly 26% over the past 52 weeks and remains below its 52-week high of $240.99. Key news includes Elon Musk stating that SpaceX plans to roughly double the number of advanced Nvidia chips at its Colossus 2 data center by year-end, with 110,000 GB200 and 440,000 GB300 chips currently in use and another 220,000 GB300 expected next week (Barron's, Business Insider). Nvidia also committed $1 billion to AI cloud infrastructure company Nscale as part of a $3.36 billion convertible financing round (ChainCatcher, TheBlockBeats). The Trump-Xi state dinner occurred on September 24 with Jensen Huang in attendance, but no concrete agreement on chip shipments was announced (Examiner, RTHK, NY Post).
(2) The current market regime is hawkish Fed policy with the 10-year Treasury yield above 5.17%, which pressures high-multiple growth stocks. However, the AI infrastructure trade remains the dominant theme, and Nvidia is the primary beneficiary. The S&P 500 is modestly higher on the session, and semiconductor names are leading pre-market gains. The market is rewarding concrete AI demand signals, and Musk's chip expansion comments provide a tangible near-term catalyst. The stock is rangebound between roughly $220 and $226 over the past several sessions, with no clear directional break.
(3) Price range justification: I am anchoring to the pre-market price of $225.64 and the recent intraday range of roughly $221-$225. NVDA has a beta of 2.09 and typically moves 1.5-2.5% per session. A one-day range of $222.00-$232.00 reflects roughly a 1.6% downside and 2.8% upside move. The lower bound accounts for the possibility that the Musk news is already priced in and profit-taking emerges. The upper bound reflects continued momentum from the chip-expansion narrative and the potential for analysts to raise estimates. The range is skewed to the upside because the news flow is positive and the stock is trading above its key moving averages.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: No scheduled earnings or macro events for Nvidia itself within the one-day window. The next confirmed earnings date is November 18, 2026, which is outside the window. The Musk chip-expansion comments are a live catalyst that could generate additional follow-through as analysts react. The Trump-Xi summit has concluded without a major chip agreement, which removes a potential upside catalyst but also removes uncertainty. There is no confirmed product launch or regulatory decision inside the window.
(5) The strongest counter-argument: The stock has already rallied significantly from its September lows and the Musk news is a headline rather than a signed contract. The Trump-Xi summit failed to produce a breakthrough on H200 chip shipments to China, which caps the upside from the China opportunity. Rising Treasury yields continue to pressure high-multiple growth names, and the stock is vulnerable to a broader market pullback. A close below $220 would invalidate the near-term bullish bias.
(6) Why confidence is 62%: The evidence for a mildly bullish bias is supported by live pre-market data, a clear positive catalyst from Musk's chip-expansion comments, strong analyst consensus (Strong Buy, average target $324), and the stock trading above its key moving averages. However, the absence of a major scheduled catalyst inside the window, the failure of the Trump-Xi summit to produce a chip deal, and the elevated yield environment introduce uncertainty. A confidence of 62% reflects a real directional conviction but acknowledges the risk of a pullback after a positive pre-market move.
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