This is ForecastNest’s 1 day forecast for NVDA, created 2026-09-25 15:01 UTC. The window closed 2026-09-28 15:01 UTC, when NVDA closed at $229.25, up 2.2% from $224.39 when the forecast was made. It traded between $223.31 and $233.21 along the way (-0.5% to +3.9%).
Prediction window: Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.
Prediction time: 2026-09-25 15:01 UTC (9/25/2026, 11:01:18 AM EDT).
Valid until: 2026-09-28 15:01 UTC (9/28/2026, 11:01:18 AM EDT). Target session: 2026-09-28 (New York); During session. Lead time to expiry: 72 elapsed hours. Timing: Regular session. Based on stored prediction time, not verified model execution time.
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4 of the 7 models called a direction, and 2 of those calls were right. Each model is also asked to find the price it was forecasting from when it answers, shown as the dashed line inside its box in the picture below. Every model found it accurately.
Below are the details.
| Model | Range | Move | Confidence | Price it found | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | $220.50–$229.25 | -1.8% to +2.1% | 58% | $224.54 | 80.4 | right |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | $221.50–$227.00 | -1.4% to +1.1% | 42% | $224.61 | 11.2 | wrong |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | $221.00–$228.00 | -1.5% to +1.6% | 65% | $224.39 | 51.8 | no call |
| Perplexity | $222.00–$230.00 | -2.0% to +1.6% | 54% | $226.48 | 31.1 | wrong |
| Claude Opus 5.5 | $219.00–$232.50 | -3.0% to +3.0% | 52% | $225.67 | 52.3 | no call |
| Grok 4.5 | $218.00–$232.00 | -3.1% to +3.1% | 45% | $225.00 | 52.0 | no call |
| DeepSeek | $222.00–$232.00 | -1.6% to +2.8% | 62% | $225.64 | 82.1 | right |
How these models have done on NVDA over 1 day
This forecast is settled and is included in the statistics below. The remaining records are forecasts created before 2026-09-25 15:01 UTC. Only settled directional calls count toward accuracy.
| Model | Asked | Still open | No call | Called up | Called down | Right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muse Spark 1.1 | 7 | — | 1 | 2 · 2 right | 4 · 2 right | 67% (4/6) |
| GPT-5.6 Sol | 7 | — | 1 | 5 · 3 right | 1 · 0 right | 50% (3/6) |
| Claude Opus 5.5 | 6 | — | 2 | 3 · 2 right | 1 · 0 right | 50% (2/4) |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | 7 | — | 2 | 3 · 1 right | 2 · 1 right | 40% (2/5) |
| DeepSeek | 6 | — | 1 | 4 · 1 right | 1 · 0 right | 20% (1/5) |
| Grok 4.5 | 6 | — | 3 | 1 · 0 right | 2 · 0 right | 0% (0/3) |
| Perplexity | 1 | — | 0 | — | 1 · 0 right | 0% (0/1) |
| Claude Sonnet 4.5 | 1 | — | 0 | 1 · 0 right | — | 0% (0/1) |
Every published NVDA forecast over 1 day before this question was asked, on 2026-09-25 15:01 UTC, plus this settled forecast. Forecasts created after this question are excluded. Results reflect the settlements available when this article is generated. A day-ahead call and a week-ahead one are counted separately — they are different questions. Only settled forecasts are graded, so open + no call + up + down adds up to asked. “No call” is a range too centred on the price to be pointing anywhere. Accuracy counts only forecasts that have settled, and the count behind it is shown beside it — a single right call is not a 100% record.
What each model said
GPT-5.6 Sol
Result: right
View full reasoning
Heuristically extracted from AI response
Muse Spark 1.1
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Finnhub market data page shows Current Price 224.1901, Open 225.13, High 226.94, Low 223.13, Previous Close 224.58 on Sept 25 2026【7381103843133134875†L17-L23】. LiteFinance summary as of 25.09.2026 states NVDA is trading at $224.61, down -0.41% over past 24 hours【7381103843133134875†L27-L30】. MarketBeat snippet says NVDA opened at $224.58 on Friday【7381103843133134875†L77-L80】. FinBold AI note cites rally catalyzed by record Q2 FY27 earnings and Blackwell demand【8211374256599396030†L5-L8】.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: NVDA is in a high-beta consolidation below May ATH $236.37【7381103843133134875†L28-L31】 and near 52-week high $236.54, after topping at $234.76 on Sept 4 then two-session decline【7381103843133134875†L72-L76】. Underlying AI infrastructure demand remains strong with $500B+ Blackwell revenue visibility commentary and partnerships with Equinix, AWS, MediaTek【8211374256599396030†L12-L16】, but elevated expectations create sensitivity to deal headlines.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to $224.61 as of window start 2026-09-25 15:01 UTC. Using observed intraday range ~$223.13-$226.94 and beta 2.22【7381103843133134875†L17-L21】, typical 1-day realized ~1.5-2.5%. Set $221.50-$227.00 to give ~$3.1 downside vs $2.4 upside, reflecting mild bearish skew. Low $221.50 aligns with below recent low and 1% extension; high $227.00 caps near prior open/high and limits upside until WSJ overhang clears.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: No official earnings scheduled for Sept 25-26 window; next earnings already reported in late August. Intraday catalysts are headline-driven: WSJ report late Friday that Nvidia's proposed $100B OpenAI investment has stalled and is being restructured to a smaller tens-of-billions stake【8211374256599396030†L28-L33】 creates near-term overhang. Potential offset is continued deal flow speculation such as $12.9B Hugging Face acquisition chatter【8211374256599396030†L23-L26】 and analyst rating actions on Sept 21-24 reaffirming buy / strong-buy【8211374256599396030†L62-L66】.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: Bull case is that Blackwell demand and $500B visibility through 2026 plus partnership momentum outweigh OpenAI financing noise, pushing price back toward $230-$237.30 forecast for month-end【8211374256599396030†L7-L10】. Invalidation would be a firm denial of WSJ report, confirmation of AWS deal or large inference partnership expansion, or a broad Nasdaq rally lifting high-beta semis intraday above $227 on heavy volume.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Confidence 42% reflects live price retrieval but mixed headline signals within a 1-day horizon where direction is close to noise. Bearish tilt is driven by fresh Friday stalled-investment report into a market already pulling back from $234.76, yet strong fundamentals and recent upgrades limit conviction. Neutral 1h acknowledges intraday chop around $224.6, with mild bearish bias on 4h and 1d, while 7d and 30d remain constructive on Blackwell cycle.
Gemini 1.5 Pro
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) Data sourcing: I retrieved live market data for NVIDIA (NVDA) as of September 25, 2026. The stock is currently trading at $224.39, down slightly intraday but stabilizing near its previous close of $224.58 according to recent exchange data.
(2) Market regime: The stock is experiencing short-term consolidation after a run-up in late August. Over the past week, NVDA has established a trading range between $220 and $229, showing sideways price action with moderate volume. The broader tech sector is showing neutral momentum as the market digests recent gains.
(3) Price range: My 1-day forecast range is $221.00 to $228.00. Support is firm around $221, which held during the September 17-18 dips, while immediate resistance sits at $228, a level that capped rallies on September 22 and 23. Implied volatility appears standard for an inter-earnings period, suggesting tight range-bound trading.
(4) Catalysts: There are no major scheduled macro or company-specific catalysts expected within the next 24 hours. The price action will likely be driven by algorithmic trading flows, options positioning expirations, and broader index movements.
(5) Counter-argument: A sudden geopolitical headline or unexpected macroeconomic data release could spike volatility and break the current consolidation. A break below $218 or a surge past $230 on high volume would invalidate the neutral short-term outlook and signal a new directional trend.
(6) Confidence: My confidence is 65%. Forecasting a 1-day move without a clear catalyst is inherently noisy. However, the recent established technical range provides a reliable boundary for short-term price action, supporting a neutral stance.
Perplexity
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) Market regime: NVDA was quoted at $226.48 at 9:36 AM ET on September 25, 2026, versus a September 24 close of $224.58. The prior session ranged from $221.09 to $224.94, so the stock is opening above the previous close but remains close to its recent trading band. Source: CNN market quote, https://www.cnn.com/markets/stocks/NVDA; historical data source, https://www.perplexity.ai/finance/NVDA/historical-data.
(2) Technical synthesis: The immediate signal is mildly positive because price is above the prior close and has recovered from the previous session low. However, the one-day range and the absence of a confirmed breakout above recent highs support neutral readings over 4h and 1d rather than a strong directional call.
(3) Price range: The one-day range of $222-$230 is anchored to the live $226.48 quote, with the lower bound near the prior session’s $221.09 low and the upper bound above the prior session’s $224.94 high to allow for normal intraday expansion. This implies modest upside asymmetry, but not a high-conviction breakout forecast.
(4) Catalysts: Recent NVIDIA newsroom items include a September 24 collaboration with Palantir on sovereign AI supply chains and an announcement concerning expansion of the open-source CUDA-Q platform. NVIDIA also reported $96.2 billion in fiscal second-quarter revenue, up 106% year over year, according to the company’s newsroom archive. Sources: https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/latest and https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-announces-financial-results-for-fourth-quarter-fiscal-2026.
(5) Counter-argument: The strongest bearish case is that the opening gain fades after a weak prior session, especially if the stock fails to hold above $224.58 or revisits the $221 area. The mildly bullish view would be invalidated by a decisive break below the prior-session low; conversely, sustained trade above $230 would indicate stronger momentum than this forecast assumes.
(6) Confidence: Confidence is 54% because the live quote and recent range support a slight near-term upside bias, while the one-day horizon is highly sensitive to market-wide moves and headline volatility. The longer-horizon bullish signals reflect strong reported growth and favorable analyst commentary, including a reported forward P/E near 24 and sharply higher earnings expectations, but those factors have limited predictive power for a single trading day. Source: Zacks, https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/2995592/market-edge-highlights-mcdonalds-sandisk-and-nvidia.
Claude Opus 5.5
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) What I found: StockAnalysis.com (https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/nvda/) shows NVDA at $225.67 (+1.09, +0.49%) at 12:16 PM EDT (16:16 UTC) on September 25, 2026. The open was $225.13, the day's range $223.13-$226.94, and the prior close $224.58 (also confirmed by Yahoo Finance and Investing.com). That quote is about 75 minutes after the 15:01 UTC window start, so the price at the window start was likely within roughly a dollar of it; I could not retrieve a quote stamped exactly at 15:01 UTC. Other data points from StockAnalysis: 52-week range $164.27-$236.54, beta 2.22, trailing P/E about 28.4, forward P/E about 18.6, and an average of 61 analysts' targets at $327.70. Fiscal Q2 2027 revenue was $96.2B, up 106% year over year (Yahoo Finance summary).
(2) Market regime: The macro backdrop is hostile to long-duration growth. The Fed hiked 25bp on September 16 to 3.75-4.00%, and the 10-year Treasury yield reached about 5.11%, its highest since 2007 (Benzinga, StockAnalysis news). On September 23-24 that yield spike pushed NVDA down about 2% and ended a six-day winning streak (Invezz). Today, stock-specific and sector tailwinds are offsetting the rate pressure. Elon Musk said SpaceX plans to roughly double the number of advanced Nvidia chips at its Colossus 2 data center (Barron's, TipRanks). Chip stocks are rallying after the Akamai-Anthropic CPU deal and a BofA target raise on AMD, oil is easing, and NVDA executives attended the Trump-Xi state dinner, where AI was a central topic (CNBC). NVDA has lagged AMD and Intel in the CPU-led rally (Barron's), and Google TPU competition is a recurring overhang (Barron's). The stock is range-bound above support near $215 (FXEmpire, September 23) and below the 52-week high of $236.54.
(3) Price range: With a beta of about 2.2 and recent daily swings of 1.5-2.5% (for example -1.47% on September 23 and -0.41% on September 24 per Yahoo), I use a one-session one-sigma move of about 2.3% (roughly $5.20) and set the range at about 1.25 sigma, skewed modestly upward. The lower bound of $219.00 (-3.0%) sits just above the September 24 intraday low area of $221 and leaves room for a yield-driven flush toward $215 support. The upper bound of $232.50 (+3.0%) sits below the late-August/September high near $234.76 (Investing.com monthly high). The midpoint of about $225.75 is essentially at the current price, with a slight bias toward the upper half.
(4) Catalysts inside the window: The window runs from Friday through Monday's session. Scheduled: Monday's Dallas Fed manufacturing index (minor). Micron reports after the close on Tuesday, September 29, just outside the window, but pre-earnings AI-memory positioning can lift the complex on Monday. Unscheduled but likely: weekend headlines from the Trump-Xi summit wrap-up (chip export policy, AI dialogue), US-Iran and Strait of Hormuz developments that move oil and yields, and possible follow-through on SpaceX Colossus orders. A CNBC piece on September 22 flagged unusual NVDA options positioning ahead of two catalysts this month, which could amplify moves.
(5) Counter-argument and invalidation: The strongest bear case is rates. If the 10-year pushes further above 5.1% (TLT made a new record low this morning), mega-cap tech multiples compress, and NVDA fell more than 2% on exactly that driver this week. NVDA has also underperformed the CPU names, suggesting rotation within semiconductors away from GPUs toward CPU and memory plays, plus TPU competition worries. A decisive break below $221 (this week's lows) would invalidate the mild bullish call and open $215. A weekend geopolitical shock would also hit this high-beta name hard.
(6) Confidence: 52% reflects a genuinely thin directional edge. Positive factors are the stock-specific SpaceX demand headline, sector momentum, a forward P/E near 18.6 (described as the cheapest in a decade by TipRanks), and pre-Micron positioning. Against them are the strongest rates headwind since 2007 and weekend event risk. Over a single session the tilt is only modestly better than a coin flip, hence MILD rather than full BULLISH, a neutral 1-hour signal, and a range nearly centred on the current price with slightly more room above.
Grok 4.5
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Live quotes from CNBC ($225.51 at 12:09 PM EDT), TradeSmith ($225.28 earlier), Smart Investors Daily ($224.58 updated midday), Investing.com ($225.45), and others place NVDA near $224-$226 in the September 25, 2026 session after a prior close of $224.58. Day range roughly $223-$227. Sources include cnbc.com/quotes/NVDA, tradesmith.com, and investing.com.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: NVDA continues to trade as the core AI infrastructure beneficiary with strong recent earnings (Q2 revenue $96.2B, guidance for further growth and Vera Rubin ramp). Elevated Treasury yields near multi-year highs create valuation pressure on high-multiple growth names, producing a mixed near-term tape even as longer-term AI demand remains intact.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to the ~$225 midday quote. Recent daily ranges have been $4-$8; the $218-$232 band covers a typical volatility session plus modest directional drift or residual yield-driven fade into the weekend, without assuming an extreme move.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: No major company-specific events inside the 1-day window. Residual focus is on any further moves in yields, oil, or broader tech sentiment. Next formal earnings are later (November estimate). Weekend gap risk is the primary near-term uncertainty.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: A sharp further rise in yields or negative AI-capex headlines could drive a break below recent support near $220. Conversely, continued semiconductor leadership or positive financing/AI news would invalidate the neutral short-term stance and push toward the upper end of the range.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Confidence is moderate at 45% because a single session in a high-beta name is dominated by noise and macro rates. Longer-horizon signals lean constructive on AI fundamentals, but the 1-day outlook lacks a decisive catalyst and remains balanced.
DeepSeek
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) What I found: NVDA is trading at $225.64 in pre-market as of 7:08 AM EDT on September 25, 2026, per StockAnalysis.com, up 0.47% from the previous close of $224.58. The intraday range on September 24 was approximately $221.09-$224.90. The 50-day moving average is $215.62 and the 200-day is $199.28. RSI is 54.72. The stock is up roughly 26% over the past 52 weeks and remains below its 52-week high of $240.99. Key news includes Elon Musk stating that SpaceX plans to roughly double the number of advanced Nvidia chips at its Colossus 2 data center by year-end, with 110,000 GB200 and 440,000 GB300 chips currently in use and another 220,000 GB300 expected next week (Barron's, Business Insider). Nvidia also committed $1 billion to AI cloud infrastructure company Nscale as part of a $3.36 billion convertible financing round (ChainCatcher, TheBlockBeats). The Trump-Xi state dinner occurred on September 24 with Jensen Huang in attendance, but no concrete agreement on chip shipments was announced (Examiner, RTHK, NY Post).
(2) The current market regime is hawkish Fed policy with the 10-year Treasury yield above 5.17%, which pressures high-multiple growth stocks. However, the AI infrastructure trade remains the dominant theme, and Nvidia is the primary beneficiary. The S&P 500 is modestly higher on the session, and semiconductor names are leading pre-market gains. The market is rewarding concrete AI demand signals, and Musk's chip expansion comments provide a tangible near-term catalyst. The stock is rangebound between roughly $220 and $226 over the past several sessions, with no clear directional break.
(3) Price range justification: I am anchoring to the pre-market price of $225.64 and the recent intraday range of roughly $221-$225. NVDA has a beta of 2.09 and typically moves 1.5-2.5% per session. A one-day range of $222.00-$232.00 reflects roughly a 1.6% downside and 2.8% upside move. The lower bound accounts for the possibility that the Musk news is already priced in and profit-taking emerges. The upper bound reflects continued momentum from the chip-expansion narrative and the potential for analysts to raise estimates. The range is skewed to the upside because the news flow is positive and the stock is trading above its key moving averages.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: No scheduled earnings or macro events for Nvidia itself within the one-day window. The next confirmed earnings date is November 18, 2026, which is outside the window. The Musk chip-expansion comments are a live catalyst that could generate additional follow-through as analysts react. The Trump-Xi summit has concluded without a major chip agreement, which removes a potential upside catalyst but also removes uncertainty. There is no confirmed product launch or regulatory decision inside the window.
(5) The strongest counter-argument: The stock has already rallied significantly from its September lows and the Musk news is a headline rather than a signed contract. The Trump-Xi summit failed to produce a breakthrough on H200 chip shipments to China, which caps the upside from the China opportunity. Rising Treasury yields continue to pressure high-multiple growth names, and the stock is vulnerable to a broader market pullback. A close below $220 would invalidate the near-term bullish bias.
(6) Why confidence is 62%: The evidence for a mildly bullish bias is supported by live pre-market data, a clear positive catalyst from Musk's chip-expansion comments, strong analyst consensus (Strong Buy, average target $324), and the stock trading above its key moving averages. However, the absence of a major scheduled catalyst inside the window, the failure of the Trump-Xi summit to produce a chip deal, and the elevated yield environment introduce uncertainty. A confidence of 62% reflects a real directional conviction but acknowledges the risk of a pullback after a positive pre-market move.
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