This is ForecastNest’s 1 day forecast for NVDA, created 2026-09-21 19:53 UTC. The window closed 2026-09-22 19:53 UTC, when NVDA closed at $229.84, up 1.1% from $227.26 when the forecast was made. It traded between $226.50 and $229.98 along the way (-0.3% to +1.2%).
Prediction window: Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.
Prediction time: 2026-09-21 19:53 UTC (9/21/2026, 3:53:38 PM EDT).
Valid until: 2026-09-22 19:53 UTC (9/22/2026, 3:53:38 PM EDT). Target session: 2026-09-22 (New York); During session. Lead time to expiry: 24 elapsed hours. Timing: Regular session. Based on stored prediction time, not verified model execution time.
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6 of the 6 models called a direction, and 3 of those calls were right. Each model is also asked to find the price it was forecasting from when it answers, shown as the dashed line inside its box in the picture below. All models except DeepSeek V3 found it accurately.
Below are the details.
| Model | Range | Move | Confidence | Price it found | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | $220.50–$234.50 | -2.8% to +3.3% | 61% | $226.92 | 80.7 | right |
| Claude Opus 5 | $219.50–$232.00 | -2.7% to +2.9% | 30% | $225.50 | 77.3 | right |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | $222.00–$232.00 | -2.4% to +2.0% | 60% | $227.41 | 30.8 | wrong |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | $222.00–$234.00 | -2.4% to +2.9% | 75% | $227.42 | 82.2 | right |
| Grok 4.5 | $222.00–$232.00 | -2.4% to +2.0% | 45% | $227.50 | 31.0 | wrong |
| DeepSeek V3 | $218.50–$229.50 | -1.7% to +3.3% | 58% | $222.27 | 37.2 | wrong |
How these models have done on NVDA over 1 day
This forecast is settled and is included in the statistics below. The remaining records are forecasts created before 2026-09-21 19:53 UTC. Only settled directional calls count toward accuracy.
| Model | Asked | Still open | No call | Called up | Called down | Right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Opus 5 | 4 | — | 0 | 3 · 2 right | 1 · 1 right | 75% (3/4) |
| GPT-5.6 Sol | 3 | — | 0 | 3 · 2 right | — | 67% (2/3) |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | 3 | — | 0 | 1 · 1 right | 2 · 1 right | 67% (2/3) |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | 3 | — | 0 | 2 · 1 right | 1 · 0 right | 33% (1/3) |
| DeepSeek V3 | 3 | — | 1 | 2 · 0 right | — | 0% (0/2) |
| Grok 4.5 | 2 | — | 1 | — | 1 · 0 right | 0% (0/1) |
Every published NVDA forecast over 1 day before this question was asked, on 2026-09-21 19:53 UTC, plus this settled forecast. Forecasts created after this question are excluded. Results reflect the settlements available when this article is generated. A day-ahead call and a week-ahead one are counted separately — they are different questions. Only settled forecasts are graded, so open + no call + up + down adds up to asked. “No call” is a range too centred on the price to be pointing anywhere. Accuracy counts only forecasts that have settled, and the count behind it is shown beside it — a single right call is not a 100% record.
What each model said
GPT-5.6 Sol
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) What I found: Investing.com's live NVDA page showed NVIDIA at $226.92 when retrieved after the 2026-09-21 19:53 UTC baseline, versus a September 18 close of $222.27, with today's range at $221.56-$227.15. StockAnalysis separately showed $226.28 at 12:59 PM EDT, confirming that NVIDIA was trading firmly above Friday's close during the session. Sources: [https://www.investing.com/equities/nvidia-corp](https://www.investing.com/equities/nvidia-corp) and [https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/nvda/history/
(2)](https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/nvda/history/
%282%29) Market regime: NVIDIA is participating in a broad semiconductor and AI-infrastructure rally. Reuters reported AMD up roughly 9.6%, Intel up about 13%, and the broader chip sector sharply higher as investors returned to AI-linked equities while oil prices and Treasury yields eased. NVIDIA itself was up roughly 2%-2.5% during Monday trading, extending a multi-session recovery from the September 14 selloff. Sources: [https://www.reuters.com/business/amd-becomes-latest-chipmaker-reach-1-trillion-valuation-ai-demand-2026-09-21/](https://www.reuters.com/business/amd-becomes-latest-chipmaker-reach-1-trillion-valuation-ai-demand-2026-09-21/) and [https://www.reuters.com/business/wall-st-futures-rise-ai-stocks-gain-oil-prices-slide-2026-09-21/
(3)](https://www.reuters.com/business/wall-st-futures-rise-ai-stocks-gain-oil-prices-slide-2026-09-21/
%283%29) Price range: I use $220.50-$234.50 for the next 24 hours. The lower bound sits near Friday's close and today's opening region, allowing most of Monday's gain to retrace if semiconductor momentum fades. The upper bound approaches NVIDIA's recent September highs without assuming an immediate break above its 52-week high of $236.54. Recent daily ranges have commonly spanned $4-$9, including $221.56-$227.15 today and $218.03-$222.73 on September 18. Sources: [https://www.investing.com/equities/nvidia-corp](https://www.investing.com/equities/nvidia-corp) and [https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/nvda/history/
(4)](https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/nvda/history/
%284%29) Catalysts inside the window: AI-compute demand remains the strongest fundamental driver. Reuters reported that Nebius recently raised rental prices for selected NVIDIA GPUs for the second time in three months because demand for compute capacity remains exceptionally strong. NVIDIA's August outlook also called for approximately 70% fiscal-2028 revenue growth and included plans with AWS to deploy two million additional GPUs in 2027 and 2028. Near-term sentiment may also respond to U.S.-China discussions involving AI and semiconductor access, which remain strategically important for NVIDIA. Sources: [https://www.reuters.com/technology/nebius-hikes-ai-cloud-prices-again-demand-computing-power-soars-2026-09-17/](https://www.reuters.com/technology/nebius-hikes-ai-cloud-prices-again-demand-computing-power-soars-2026-09-17/), [https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/nvidia-forecasts-quarterly-revenue-above-estimates-2026-08-26/](https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/nvidia-forecasts-quarterly-revenue-above-estimates-2026-08-26/) and [https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/us-china-meet-again-ai-safety-two-months-shenzhen-bessent-says-2026-09-21/
(5)](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/us-china-meet-again-ai-safety-two-months-shenzhen-bessent-says-2026-09-21/
%285%29) Strongest counter-argument: The bearish case is that Monday's semiconductor rally is already extended and that lower oil prices and easing yields have provided a large one-day valuation boost that could reverse quickly. Federal Reserve officials continue to warn that strong demand may be sustaining inflation, leaving further rate increases possible. NVIDIA also faces intensifying competition from AMD, custom hyperscaler accelerators and Chinese alternatives. A sustained move below roughly $222-$223 would weaken the mild bullish one-day view, while strength through roughly $230-$232 would indicate that the recovery is extending toward the recent highs. Sources: [https://www.reuters.com/business/feds-goolsbee-strong-demand-may-be-adding-us-inflation-no-ambiguity-how-fed-2026-09-21/](https://www.reuters.com/business/feds-goolsbee-strong-demand-may-be-adding-us-inflation-no-ambiguity-how-fed-2026-09-21/) and [https://www.reuters.com/business/amd-becomes-latest-chipmaker-reach-1-trillion-valuation-ai-demand-2026-09-21/
(6)](https://www.reuters.com/business/amd-becomes-latest-chipmaker-reach-1-trillion-valuation-ai-demand-2026-09-21/
%286%29) Confidence: 61% reflects a meaningful but not high-conviction positive edge. NVIDIA is trading near the top of today's range, semiconductor breadth is strong, AI-compute pricing remains firm and falling oil and bond yields are supportive for growth stocks. Confidence is capped because the sector has rallied quickly, NVIDIA is approaching prior resistance, and another move higher in Treasury yields or renewed AI-safety or regulatory concerns could reverse momentum within one session.
Claude Opus 5
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) What I found: Yahoo Finance showed NVDA at $225.31, up 1.37% (+$3.04), as of 12:11 p.m. EDT on September 21, 2026, against a Friday close of $222.27 (confirmed by CNBC's quote page). An Investing.com history page lists a September 21 range of $221.56-$227.67 with an open of $222.88, though that page's metadata makes its date less certain. The 52-week range is $164.27-$236.54 (CNBC). My latest quote is from about 16:11 UTC, roughly 3.7 hours before the 19:53 UTC window start, so $225.50 is an estimate carried forward, not a live quote. I have no reliable clock, so answered_at_utc is 'unknown'.
(2) Market regime: Chips are leading a risk-on Monday; TipRanks ran a same-day headline on Nvidia, AMD and Intel rising, alongside falling oil and 10-year yields back below 5%. Company-specific tailwinds from last week include CNBC reporting that Jensen Huang expects Nvidia to sell twice as many chips next year, and ABC News (via TipRanks) reporting the OpenAI and Nvidia CEOs will attend the Trump-Xi state dinner. Headwinds: the Fed's September 16 hike, NVDA still about 5% below its May high, AI-regulation headlines (California executive order), and CFO share sales of $7.65M reported September 18.
(3) Price range: With NVDA's beta around 2.2 (CNBC) and recent daily moves of 2%-3%, a one-day band of roughly $6 either side is reasonable. I set $219.50-$232.00, tilted slightly upward: the lower bound sits below Friday's $222.27 close and the morning low near $221.56, while the upper bound allows a push toward the $230-$234 area reached in early September (Trading Economics noted $230.48 on September 4) without reaching the $236.54 52-week high.
(4) Catalysts in the window: No Nvidia earnings in the window; CNBC lists the next report around November 20, 2026 (estimated). Swing factors are the Trump-Xi summit later this week and any related export-control headlines, oil and Iran news driving risk appetite, and yields near 5%.
(5) Counter-argument: Monday's gain may already price in the summit optimism; any hint that China access or export rules tighten, or a reversal in oil and yields, could quickly push NVDA back below $222. AI-regulation headlines and insider selling add supply. A close back below Friday's $222.27 would undercut the mild bullish 1-day lean.
(6) Confidence: 30% reflects a price anchor several hours old, a narrow directional edge, and headline-driven risk around US-China relations, all of which make a one-day call only marginally better than a coin flip.
Muse Spark 1.1
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Finnhub reports NVDA Current $227.405 Open $222.935 High $228.5 Low $221.56 Previous Close $222.27 Change +5.135 +2.3103% 5-day +4.18% 1M +5.91% 6M +31.68% YTD +21.93% 1Y +28.72% beta 2.22. Hexn reports Sep 21 18:00 current $227 forecast $227 Sep 22 +0.08% strong bullish 90% sentiment fear greed 65 neutral 23/7 green days 0.6% vol. Economies.com Sep 21 12:51 UTC reports Nvidia advanced intraday primary medium-term uptrend firmly in control following ascending trendline supporting bullish bias. Finimize closed Sep 21 16:30 ET. Financhill $211.14 score 54 above median 50 lower risk.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: Continued AI momentum. From $224.39 Sep 19 to $227.405 Sep 21 +1.3% and high $228.5 new. SOXL $143.6 +16% Sep 19 high $144 low $129.62 prev $123.67 and $140.10 Sep 21 Kraken range $129.63-$140.42 shows semis bid. BTC $85,936 Sep 21 +5.55% $85k first since Jan 29 per Fana supports risk. NVDA primary uptrend above EMA per Economies bullish bias intact.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to $227.405 Finnhub current Sep 21. Using day $221.56-$228.5 Finnhub and $227 Hexn forecast $227 Sep 22 +0.08%. Daily vol ~2% ~$4.5 due beta 2.22. Lower $222 near $221.56 low and $222.935 open -2.3% if profit taking, upper $232 +2% toward extension above $228.5 high captures momentum along ascending trendline per Economies. Slight upside skew due to +2.31% and bullish 90% sentiment per Hexn.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: Window Sep 21 19:53 UTC 24h covers Sep 21-22 Monday open. Polymarket What will NVDA hit week Sep 21 opened Sep 18 6pm ET. Fed speeches Sep 21-27 per HappyCoinNews, US-China negotiations, SOXL $140-143 momentum. No NVDA earnings in window.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: Bear case: +2.31% +4.18% 5-day overbought high $228.5 could retrace to $221.56 low $222 if semis fade, SOXL $139.19 FT 16:29 BST down from $143.6. Bull case: ascending trendline per Economies could squeeze to $232 above $228.5 high. Invalidation: close below $219 or above $234 would negate mild bullish.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Confidence 60% reflects live $227.405 open $222.935 high $228.5 low $221.56 prev $222.27 Sep 21 same day as window start 19:53 UTC, plus Hexn $227 Sep 21 18:00 and Economies bullish bias Sep 21 12:51 UTC same day. Multiple same-day live sources after baseline. Labeling live because quotes dated Sep 21 after window start.
Gemini 1.5 Pro
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) Data sources: I retrieved live market data showing NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) trading at $227.42 as of 3:50 PM EDT on September 21, 2026. I also reviewed today's news from The Motley Fool and Morningstar regarding CEO Jensen Huang's recent commentary and a new autonomous trucking partnership.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: The equity market is in a pronounced risk-on phase. Following last week's Federal Reserve rate decision, capital is aggressively rotating back into mega-cap technology and artificial intelligence leaders, pushing NVDA and the broader semiconductor index steadily higher.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: I project a 24-hour range of $222.00-$234.00. NVDA has exhibited strong intraday momentum, climbing over 2.3% to test the $228 level. Immediate support is firmly established around the $222.00 morning consolidation zone, while the $234.00 upper bound accommodates continued upward momentum as buyers chase the stock into Tuesday.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: Price action over the next 24 hours will be heavily influenced by the market's digestion of CEO Jensen Huang's recent remarks suggesting chip sales could double next year with the rollout of the new Vera Rubin architecture, alongside momentum from today's announced partnership with Einride.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: The primary risk to this bullish trajectory is the stock's elevated intraday velocity. If broader tech sentiment pauses on Tuesday or if short-term traders aggressively upside levels off today's highs, NVDA could easily reverse course and test the $222.00 support level.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: My confidence is 75%. The combination of an extremely favorable macroeconomic backdrop, undeniable fundamental strength cited by the CEO, and a clear technical breakout provides a high-probability setup for continued near-term strength.
Grok 4.5
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Live quotes from Yahoo Finance ($227.27 as of ~3:51 PM EDT), Motley Fool ($227.53), StockAnalysis ($227.51), CNBC (~$228), TradeSmith ($227.44), and MarketWatch (~$227.55) place NVDA near $227.50 late on 21 Sep 2026. Prior close was $222.27; day range approximately $221.56-$228.50 on volume near 70-80M shares. Sources are the respective quote pages dated 21 Sep 2026.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: NVDA is advancing on the day within a broader semiconductor and AI-related risk-on session, supported by positive comments from CEO Jensen Huang rejecting extreme AI doomsday scenarios and ongoing optimism around potential U.S.-China discussions that could affect AI chip demand. The stock trades near the upper end of its recent range but remains below the 52-week high of $236.54, with solid fundamental momentum from data-center AI infrastructure demand.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to the verified ~$227.50 quote, the $222-$232 band incorporates the session low as a realistic support pivot on any profit-taking and allows modest extension toward recent resistance levels. Typical recent daily ranges of 2-4% for NVDA support this width for a one-day horizon without assuming an outsized gap or reversal.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: No company earnings fall inside the next trading day; the next report is projected around mid-to-late November 2026 (sources including Yahoo Finance and earnings calendars list ~17-18 Nov). Near-term drivers are limited to broader market sentiment, semiconductor peer moves, and any further headlines related to AI policy or the anticipated Trump-Xi meeting.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: A sharp risk-off move in tech or profit-taking after today’s gain could push the stock back toward the prior close; a decisive break below $222 with volume would shift short-term signals to neutral or mild bearish and invalidate the mild upside bias.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: 45% reflects consistent live price confirmation across multiple sources and a coherent positive short-term tape, offset by the inherent noise of single-day equity forecasts, the absence of an immediate company-specific catalyst, and NVDA’s elevated beta that can amplify both upside and downside moves.
DeepSeek V3
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) Price discovery: I found NVDA trading at $222.27 as of September 21, 2026, based on a delayed NASDAQ quote from eToro. The day's range was $218.13-$222.68, and the 52-week range is $86.50-$240.99. Moomoo showed an intraday quote of $226.925 (+2.09%) at 1:19 p.m. ET, and Investing.com listed the close at $223.67 (-0.91%) with an after-hours print of $223.28. The stock has a beta of 2.09 and a market capitalization of $5.36 trillion.
(2) Market regime: NVDA is in a constructive recovery within a broader semiconductor rally. The stock reclaimed its key moving averages at $223.33 on September 21, and the 5-hour chart shows price hovering just below the $234.75 resistance level. The rally is supported by CEO Jensen Huang's CBS News interview, where he expressed confidence in AI demand and noted Nvidia could pay about $8 billion in U.S. taxes. Improving U.S.-China trade relations, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent describing talks as a "very successful engagement," are also lifting sentiment. However, the ADX reading of 17.29 signals weak trend conviction, and momentum is positive but fading.
(3) Price range: I used the intraday range of $218.13-$222.68 and the technical resistance at $234.75 as structural anchors. The $219-$222 zone is the value area, supported by a confluence of the 20/50 SMAs, the Ichimoku cloud, and key Fibonacci levels. Immediate resistance sits at $228, with the next major hurdle at $234.75. A close below $216.50 would shift the paradigm bearish. Given the elevated beta and the stock's recent volatility, I expect a one-day range of $218.50-$229.50, with a slight bearish lean because momentum oscillators are mixed and the stock is trading in a no-trade zone between $223 and $231.
(4) Catalysts: The primary catalyst inside the window is the continuation of the AI semiconductor rally driven by Jensen Huang's bullish commentary and improving U.S.-China trade ties. AMD's surge past a $1 trillion market cap and Intel's AUO Micro LED partnership are lifting the entire sector. There are no major company-specific scheduled events inside the 24-hour window; NVDA's next earnings report is scheduled for November 25, 2026.
(5) Counter-argument: The strongest counter-argument is that the rally is running on thin conviction. The ADX below 20 indicates weak trend strength, and the stock is trading just below the $234.75 resistance that has capped previous advances. If the breakout above $228 fails and price rotates back below the $219-$222 support zone, the bullish thesis would be invalidated. A close below $216.50 would signal a paradigm shift to bearish. Additionally, insider selling by CEO Jensen Huang and other executives, who sold nearly 150,000 shares combined, could weigh on sentiment.
(6) Confidence: I set confidence at 58% because the short-term direction is genuinely two-sided. The sector momentum, Huang's bullish comments, and improving trade relations support a constructive view, but weak ADX, fading momentum, and the stock's position in a no-trade zone introduce significant uncertainty. The one-day forecast has a slight bearish lean from the lack of trend conviction, but this is closer to a coin flip than a high-conviction call.
Read this comparison on ForecastNest, where it stays up to date if a score is ever recomputed.
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