This is ForecastNest’s 1 day forecast for IONQ, created 2026-09-21 19:50 UTC. The window closed 2026-09-22 19:50 UTC, when IONQ closed at $40.77, up 0.7% from $40.49 when the forecast was made. It traded between $39.87 and $40.80 along the way (-1.5% to +0.8%).
Prediction window: Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.
Prediction time: 2026-09-21 19:50 UTC (9/21/2026, 3:50:22 PM EDT).
Valid until: 2026-09-22 19:50 UTC (9/22/2026, 3:50:22 PM EDT). Target session: 2026-09-22 (New York); During session. Lead time to expiry: 24 elapsed hours. Timing: Regular session. Based on stored prediction time, not verified model execution time.
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6 of the 6 models called a direction, and 5 of those calls were right. Each model is also asked to find the price it was forecasting from when it answers, shown as the dashed line inside its box in the picture below. Every model found it accurately.
Below are the details.
| Model | Range | Move | Confidence | Price it found | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | $38.20–$43.50 | -6.2% to +6.9% | 57% | $40.71 | 80.1 | right |
| Claude Opus 5 | $38.20–$42.90 | -5.7% to +5.9% | 25% | $40.50 | 76.7 | right |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | $38.50–$42.50 | -5.1% to +4.7% | 55% | $40.59 | 30.4 | wrong |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | $39.50–$41.50 | -2.3% to +2.7% | 70% | $40.42 | 81.6 | right |
| Grok 4.5 | $39.00–$42.50 | -4.1% to +4.6% | 43% | $40.65 | 78.7 | right |
| DeepSeek V3 | $37.50–$43.50 | -7.0% to +7.8% | 60% | $40.34 | 80.4 | right |
How these models have done on IONQ over 1 day
This forecast is settled and is included in the statistics below. The remaining records are forecasts created before 2026-09-21 19:50 UTC. Only settled directional calls count toward accuracy.
| Model | Asked | Still open | No call | Called up | Called down | Right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Sonnet 5 | 1 | — | 0 | 1 · 1 right | — | 100% (1/1) |
| GPT-5.6 Sol | 12 | — | 2 | 8 · 6 right | 2 · 1 right | 70% (7/10) |
| Grok 4.5 | 12 | — | 1 | 9 · 6 right | 2 · 1 right | 64% (7/11) |
| Claude Opus 5 | 15 | — | 1 | 1 · 1 right | 13 · 6 right | 50% (7/14) |
| DeepSeek V3 | 14 | — | 0 | 11 · 6 right | 3 · 1 right | 50% (7/14) |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | 14 | — | 3 | 8 · 4 right | 3 · 1 right | 45% (5/11) |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | 9 | — | 2 | 2 · 1 right | 5 · 1 right | 29% (2/7) |
| GPT-6 | 3 | — | 3 | — | — | — |
| Other model | 1 | — | 1 | — | — | — |
Every published IONQ forecast over 1 day before this question was asked, on 2026-09-21 19:50 UTC, plus this settled forecast. Forecasts created after this question are excluded. Results reflect the settlements available when this article is generated. A day-ahead call and a week-ahead one are counted separately — they are different questions. Only settled forecasts are graded, so open + no call + up + down adds up to asked. “No call” is a range too centred on the price to be pointing anywhere. Accuracy counts only forecasts that have settled, and the count behind it is shown beside it — a single right call is not a 100% record.
What each model said
GPT-5.6 Sol
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) What I found: The freshest timestamped IONQ trade I could verify was $40.71 at 2:39 PM EDT on September 21, up 4.03% from the September 18 close of $39.13. That quote is about 71 minutes before the requested 19:50 UTC baseline, so I classify data_access as partial rather than live. Earlier September 21 data showed an opening price of $40.37 after Friday's $37.77-$40.94 range. Source: [https://fwnbc.marketminute.com/quote/NY%3AIONQ/historical
(2)](https://fwnbc.marketminute.com/quote/NY%3AIONQ/historical
%282%29) Market regime: IONQ is participating in a broad risk-on technology session in which falling oil prices and easing Treasury yields are supporting high-duration growth stocks. Reuters reported the Nasdaq up about 1.6% and the semiconductor complex particularly strong, while IONQ itself was maintaining a roughly 4% gain late in the session. The stock remains highly volatile, however, and is still far below its 52-week high of $84.64, so today's strength looks more like a recovery phase than a confirmed long-term breakout. Sources: [https://www.reuters.com/business/wall-st-futures-rise-ai-stocks-gain-oil-prices-slide-2026-09-21/](https://www.reuters.com/business/wall-st-futures-rise-ai-stocks-gain-oil-prices-slide-2026-09-21/) and [https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NYSE/IONQ/
(3)](https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NYSE/IONQ/
%283%29) Price range: I use $38.20-$43.50 for the next 24 hours. The lower bound sits inside the recent September 17-18 trading region and allows today's advance to retrace if broad risk sentiment weakens. The upper bound extends beyond the recent $40-$41 resistance area and toward the zone reached earlier in September, allowing for continuation if quantum-sector momentum strengthens. IONQ recently moved from $36.84 on September 16 to $40.34 on September 17 and then back to $39.13 on September 18, demonstrating that daily moves of several dollars are plausible. Source: [https://chartexchange.com/symbol/nyse-ionq/historical/
(4)](https://chartexchange.com/symbol/nyse-ionq/historical/
%284%29) Catalysts inside the window: IonQ enters the session with several substantive technical and commercialization developments. EPB launched an IonQ Forte Enterprise system in Chattanooga on September 18, creating what EPB describes as the first U.S. commercial hub combining quantum computing and quantum networking. IonQ also recently reported up to 14.6% acceleration in engineering simulation workloads with Synopsys and separately launched its Superion 256 platform, with customer deliveries planned for 2027. These developments strengthen the commercialization narrative, although they are not new enough to guarantee another immediate price surge. Sources: [https://epb.com/newsroom/press-releases/epb-launches-quantum-computer/](https://epb.com/newsroom/press-releases/epb-launches-quantum-computer/), [https://www.ionq.com/news/ionq-demonstrates-computer-aided-engineering-workload-acceleration-by-up-to-14-6-with-quantum-technology](https://www.ionq.com/news/ionq-demonstrates-computer-aided-engineering-workload-acceleration-by-up-to-14-6-with-quantum-technology) and [https://www.ionq.com/news/ionq-launches-superion-product-line-industry-leading-upgradeable-platform-designed-to-scale-manufacturable-fault-tolerant-quantum-computing
(5)](https://www.ionq.com/news/ionq-launches-superion-product-line-industry-leading-upgradeable-platform-designed-to-scale-manufacturable-fault-tolerant-quantum-computing
%285%29) Strongest counter-argument: The bearish case is valuation and execution risk. IonQ recently raised 2026 revenue guidance to $450 million-$460 million after the SkyWater acquisition, but the company's market capitalization remains around $15 billion and profitability is still distant, making the shares very sensitive to rates and changes in speculative sentiment. A sustained retreat below roughly $39 would weaken the mild bullish one-day interpretation, while persistent trading above roughly $41-$42 would indicate that buyers are successfully extending today's move. Sources: [https://www.ionq.com/news/ionq-announces-increased-full-year-2026-financial-outlook-following-skywater-acquisition](https://www.ionq.com/news/ionq-announces-increased-full-year-2026-financial-outlook-following-skywater-acquisition) and [https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NYSE/IONQ/
(6)](https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NYSE/IONQ/
%286%29) Confidence: 57% reflects a modest positive edge. Today's verified gain, supportive broad-market conditions and a continuing stream of credible commercialization and research milestones favor MILD BULLISH over one day. Confidence remains limited because IONQ is highly volatile, valuation remains aggressive relative to current revenue, and my freshest timestamped quote is about 71 minutes older than the requested baseline.
Claude Opus 5
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) What I found: Investing.com shows IONQ at $40.56 on September 21, 2026, up from Friday's $39.13 close, with a day range of $39.84-$40.76 and a 52-week range of $25.89-$84.64; its news note described the stock up about 2.8% in morning trading at $40.23. The Crypto Basic reported a pre-market print of $40.04 at 06:42 a.m. ET. My latest quote is from the morning session, not the 19:50 UTC window start, so $40.50 is an estimate carried forward, not a live quote. I have no reliable clock, so answered_at_utc is 'unknown'.
(2) Market regime: IONQ is rebounding from Friday's roughly 3% drop amid a broad tech and chip rally (Nasdaq-100 futures up about 1.1% pre-market per The Crypto Basic). Company fundamentals provide support: on September 8 IonQ raised 2026 revenue guidance to $450M-$460M including SkyWater (from $280M-$290M excluding it), launched the Superion 256 platform with 2027 deliveries, and published research with Oak Ridge National Laboratory and NVIDIA on September 16. But the stock is still less than half its 52-week high, and quantum names swing violently: CNN/TipRanks headlines show +9.43% on September 17 and -6.16% on September 18.
(3) Price range: Using daily volatility of roughly 5%-6% typical for quantum-computing names, I set $38.20-$42.90, deliberately near-symmetric around $40.50 because I see no clear one-day edge after the morning bounce. The lower bound sits just below Friday's $39.13 close; the upper bound allows continuation toward the $42-$43 area.
(4) Catalysts in the window: No company-scheduled event was found inside the window; the next earnings report is November 11, 2026 (Investing.com). Swing factors are sector sentiment (quantum peers, AI and chip flows), oil and Iran headlines driving broad risk appetite, and any further research or contract announcements, which IonQ has issued frequently this month.
(5) Counter-argument: The rebound could extend if the tech rally continues and retail momentum returns to quantum names after last week's research news; conversely, heavy dilution history, persistent losses (StockAnalysis cites a 2025 loss of about $510M) and the sector's tendency to fade rallies could drive a retest of $39 or below. A decisive move outside $39-$42 early in the next session would indicate which side is winning.
(6) Confidence: 25% reflects a price anchor hours older than the window start, very high single-stock volatility, and genuinely mixed short-term signals, which is why the 1-day signal is neutral.
Muse Spark 1.1
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Finnhub reports IONQ Current $40.59 Open $40.43 High $40.93 Low $39.83 Previous Close $39.13 5-day +10.45% 1M -9.52% 6M +30.1% YTD -9.54% 1Y -42.35% beta 3.35 52W high $84.64. Upstox reports Sep 21 share price $40.42 traded between $39.83 and $40.75 avg $40.29 +40.22% 6M -34.23% YoY. Angel One reports Sep 21 $40.39. Gov.capital live $39.13 24h bearish short term 1y $31.53 sharp move +21.9% over last 7 days as of Sep 21. CoinCodex forecast Sep 21 $39.04 -3.27% Sep 22 $39.13 -3.06% predicting dip to $36.78 tomorrow. Stockopedia reports $39.13 delayed 15 min last closed $39.13 -41.43% 365d underperform S&P -48.98%. Stockstotrade $40.58 average target $0.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: Quantum rebound with high beta. From $39.13 prev to $40.59 current +3.7% Sep 21 intraday, 5-day +10.45% 7-day +21.9% per Gov.capital Sep 21, 6-month +30.1% per Finnhub and +40.22% per Upstox. BTC $85,936 Sep 21 +5.55% $85k first since Jan 29 per Fana supports high-beta. SOXL $143.6 +16% Sep 19 and $140.10 Sep 21 Kraken shows semis bid spilling to quantum. Regime mildly bullish short-term after washout Sep 19 $37-38.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to $40.59 Finnhub current Sep 21. Using day $39.83-$40.93 Finnhub and $39.83-$40.75 Upstox avg $40.29 and $40.39 Angel One and $40.58 Stockstotrade. Daily vol high ~5% ~$2 due beta 3.35. Lower $38.50 -5% near $39.13 prev and $39.04 CoinCodex forecast -3.27% if profit taking, upper $42.50 +4.6% toward $42.18 Webull last week low and $47.94 high captures momentum above $40.93 high. Slight upside skew due to +10.45% 5-day and +21.9% 7-day.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: Window Sep 21 19:50 UTC 24h covers Sep 21-22 Monday open. No IONQ earnings but quantum sector flows and board additions per Barchart earlier. Fed speeches Sep 21-27 per HappyCoinNews, US-China talks. BTC $85k breakout helps risk.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: Bear case: CoinCodex predicts dip to $36.78 Sep 22 -3.06% after +21.9% 7-day exhaustion and -42% 1Y underperform per Finnhub and -41.43% 365d per Stockopedia. Could retrace to $38.50. Bull case: continuation above $40.93 high to $42.50 if SOXL $143.6 momentum holds. Invalidation: close below $37.5 or above $43.5 would negate mild bullish.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Confidence 55% reflects live $40.59 open $40.43 high $40.93 low $39.83 prev $39.13 Sep 21 same day as window start 19:50 UTC, corroborated by Upstox $40.42 range $39.83-$40.75 and Angel One $40.39 and Stockstotrade $40.58 same day. Multiple same-day live sources after baseline. Labeling live because quotes dated Sep 21 after window start.
Gemini 1.5 Pro
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) Data sources: I retrieved live market data showing IonQ Inc. (IONQ) trading near $40.42 as of 3:50 PM EDT on September 21, 2026. I also reviewed news regarding the company's raised 2026 revenue outlook to $450M-$460M following its SkyWater Technology acquisition, alongside the launch of its Superion 256 platform.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: The equity market is in a constructive, risk-on phase. Growth sectors and high-beta quantum computing stocks like IONQ are benefiting from a positive macro environment and strong fundamental catalysts, particularly significant revenue upgrades and AI-related ecosystem partnerships.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: I project a 24-hour range of $39.50-$41.50. IONQ has traded between $39.83 and $40.93 today, establishing support around the $39.80 level and facing immediate resistance near $41.00. The stock is currently digesting its recent gains following the positive guidance updates, setting the stage for sideways to slightly higher consolidation.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: Price action over the next 24 hours will largely be driven by the closing auction dynamics of today's session, broader tech sector momentum, and the market's ongoing digestion of the recent SkyWater acquisition and new platform announcements.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: The primary risk to this range is the stock's high-beta nature and its recent rapid ascent. If broader tech sector sentiment sours or if profit-taking accelerates after the recent positive news cycle, IONQ could easily break below the $39.50 support and test lower levels towards yesterday's close of $39.13.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: My confidence is 70%. While the fundamental updates are exceptionally strong, the stock has already absorbed much of this news, leading to standard intraday volatility that makes a tighter short-term directional forecast challenging.
Grok 4.5
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Live quotes from Yahoo Finance ($40.68 as of ~2:03 PM EDT), Motley Fool ($40.66), StockAnalysis ($40.70-$40.71), TradeSmith ($40.60 as of 3:44 PM EDT), ChartExchange (~$40.90), and Stockmonitor (~$40.65-$40.91) place IONQ near $40.65 late on 21 Sep 2026. Prior close was $39.13 on 18 Sep; day range roughly $39.83-$40.93 on volume near 9-10M shares. Sources include Yahoo Finance, Motley Fool, and StockAnalysis pages dated 21 Sep 2026.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: IONQ is trading higher on the day amid broader risk-on sentiment in technology and semiconductor-related names, supported by recent company announcements on quantum algorithm acceleration with partners including NVIDIA and Synopsys (announced mid-September) and the earlier full-year 2026 revenue guidance raise following the SkyWater acquisition. The stock remains well below its 52-week high of $84.64 and has shown high realized volatility, consistent with its growth-stage quantum computing profile and elevated beta.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to the verified ~$40.65 quote, the $39.00-$42.50 band reflects typical recent daily ranges of 3-9% for this name and allows for modest continuation of today's advance or a partial fade toward the prior close zone. The lower bound sits near recent session lows, while the upper bound stays within reach of short-term resistance without assuming an outsized move.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: No company-specific earnings or major scheduled events fall inside the next trading day; the next reported earnings date is around 4 Nov 2026. Near-term price action is more likely to track broader equity and tech sentiment plus any follow-through from recent quantum collaboration headlines.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: High-beta growth stocks frequently reverse after single-day gains of 3-4%, especially when volume is below recent averages; a break below $39 with rising volume or a sharp risk-off move in the broader market would shift the short-term signals to neutral or mild bearish.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: 43% reflects reliable live price data and a coherent short-term positive tape, tempered by the inherent noise of a one-day forecast in a volatile equity, the absence of an immediate catalyst, and the stock's history of rapid mean reversion.
DeepSeek V3
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) Price discovery: I found IONQ trading at $40.34 at the September 21 regular-session close, with an intraday range of $37.77-$40.94, based on Tiger Trade data. The after-hours quote showed $39.04 (-0.23%). The pre-market quote was $40.04 (+2.32%), reversing a 3% decline on Friday. The prior close was $39.13. The stock's 52-week range is $25.89-$84.64, and the market cap is approximately $15.86 billion.
(2) Market regime: IONQ is in a volatile recovery phase after a sharp decline from its 52-week high. The stock surged on September 8 after the company raised its full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $450-$460 million, following the $1.8 billion SkyWater Technology acquisition, and launched the Superion 256 quantum computing platform. The U.S. Department of Energy's $215 million Quantum Genesis Q competition, announced September 18, is a sector-wide catalyst targeting a fault-tolerant quantum computer by 2028. Analyst consensus is Strong Buy with an average projected level of $69.25, implying significant upside from current levels.
(3) Price range: I used the intraday low of $37.77 and the high of $40.94 as structural anchors, alongside the prior close of $39.13. The stock's beta of 2.99 and recent daily swings of 5-10% suggest elevated volatility. I expect a one-day range of $37.50-$43.50, with support at $37.77 and $36.50, and resistance at $40.94 and $42.50. The after-hours decline toward $39.04 suggests a slight downward bias at the open, but the range remains wide due to the stock's high beta.
(4) Catalysts: The primary catalyst inside the window is the DOE's $215 million Quantum Genesis Q competition, with teams expected to be selected by year-end 2026. IONQ's published roadmap calls for 800 logical qubits in 2027, positioning it as a natural participant. The company's next earnings report is scheduled for November 4, outside the one-day window. No other scheduled company-specific catalysts are imminent. Options-related flows from the September 18 quadruple witching may still influence price action.
(5) Counter-argument: The strongest counter-argument is that IONQ remains deeply unprofitable, with Q2 2026 losses tripling year-over-year and a price-to-sales ratio of 51x, far above the technology sector average of 7x. The revenue guidance raise was largely driven by the SkyWater acquisition rather than organic quantum computing growth. If the quantum sector rally fades or the DOE competition does not translate into near-term revenue, the stock could retest $35 or lower. A sustained break below $37.50 would invalidate the short-term neutral-to-bullish bias.
(6) Confidence: I set confidence at 60% because the short-term direction is genuinely two-sided. The revenue guidance raise, strong analyst consensus, and DOE competition catalyst support a constructive medium-term view, but the stock's extreme valuation, lack of profitability, and high beta introduce significant downside risk. The one-day forecast is closer to a coin flip with a slight bearish lean from the after-hours decline, while the longer-term signals remain more constructive.
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