Asked Sep 10, 2:41 PM EDT (midday). Grok 4.5, GPT-5.6 Sol and DeepSeek V3 answered the same standard prompt independently. Window: from Sep 10, 2:41 PM EDT to Sep 11, 2:41 PM EDT, the same time one session later. Benchmark: SPY.
Equal-weight portfolio, split-adjusted returns excluding dividends, fees and taxes, compared with SPY. In each chart SPY is on the left and the picks on the right, every candle drawn from zero to that asset's move; ✓ marks a pick that beat SPY.
| Model | Beat SPY | Hit rate | Return | SPY | Alpha |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grok 4.5 | 0/5 | 0.00% | -0.93% | 0.99% | -1.92% |
| GPT-5.6 Sol | 1/5 | 20.00% | 0.08% | 0.99% | -0.91% |
| DeepSeek V3 | 1/5 | 20.00% | -1.24% | 0.99% | -2.22% |
Grok 4.5
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Markets are under pressure from escalating Middle East tensions driving oil above $100, hotter PPI data, rising yields, and elevated odds of a Fed hike. Energy is the clear relative-strength sector while the broader market drifts lower ahead of CPI. Geopolitical risk and commodity momentum favor energy producers and related defense names over the next session.
- XLE — confidence 72.0000%. Energy Select Sector SPDR is the most direct liquid vehicle for the ongoing oil spike driven by Strait of Hormuz disruptions and Iran-related escalations. Sector has been the sole consistent outperformer while SPY declines. Thesis: continued crude strength or further geopolitical headlines support outperformance into the next session. Risks: sudden de-escalation news or a sharp risk-on reversal after CPI could trigger profit-taking.
Return: -0.15%; alpha: -1.14%. - XOP — confidence 68.0000%. SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF offers higher beta to crude prices than XLE and has shown stronger relative strength in the recent oil rally. E&P names benefit most immediately from sustained higher oil. Thesis: oil momentum and supply-fear premium persist through the CPI window. Risks: higher beta also means larger drawdowns if oil reverses or if broader equity selling intensifies.
Return: -0.50%; alpha: -1.49%. - XOM — confidence 65.0000%. ExxonMobil is the largest integrated major with direct leverage to rising crude realizations and refining margins. It has been a leader within energy on the recent up-move. Thesis: oil above $100 and geopolitical risk premium favor integrated majors with strong balance sheets. Risks: any unexpected progress toward de-escalation or a broader market sell-off could still pressure the stock.
Return: -0.03%; alpha: -1.02%. - AVAV — confidence 62.0000%. AeroVironment has demonstrated strong positive momentum today on defense and drone demand linked to heightened regional conflict. Pure-play exposure to tactical UAS and loitering munitions benefits from sustained geopolitical tension. Thesis: defense spending and operational demand remain elevated into the next session. Risks: high valuation and potential profit-taking after the sharp single-day move; any cooling of tensions would remove the catalyst.
Return: -4.21%; alpha: -5.20%. - CVX — confidence 60.0000%. Chevron provides complementary large-cap energy exposure with solid production and refining leverage to higher oil prices. It has participated in the sector's relative strength. Thesis: same oil and geopolitics tailwind as XOM but with slightly different geographic and downstream mix. Risks: similar to other energy names-oil reversal or risk-off equity market pressure could limit upside.
Return: 0.23%; alpha: -0.76%.
GPT-5.6 Sol
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The 1-session setup favors idiosyncratic catalysts and energy exposure over broad-market beta. SPY is under pressure from sharply higher Treasury yields, August producer inflation of 5.4% year over year, and oil above $100 as Middle East shipping disruptions intensify. The next major macro catalyst is Friday's U.S. CPI release, which falls inside the forecast window and creates substantial market-wide risk. Energy securities have a direct relative-benefit channel from sustained crude disruption, while ORCL has the strongest company-specific catalyst because its earnings report occurs after today's close and will be fully reflected before the window ends. META and AAPL provide relative-strength and product-catalyst exposure without relying solely on broad semiconductor beta.
- ORCL — confidence 72.0000%. Thesis: Oracle reports fiscal Q1 results after the September 10 close, making this the clearest discrete catalyst within the measurement window. Consensus expectations call for roughly $19.1 billion of revenue, about 28% year-over-year growth, while Oracle Cloud Infrastructure growth is expected to remain exceptionally strong as AI workloads expand. The stock has already fallen substantially from its prior peak, reducing the valuation hurdle compared with earlier in the AI infrastructure cycle. Oracle's roughly $638 billion backlog and rapidly expanding non-OpenAI backlog provide scope for an upside reaction if cloud capacity, backlog conversion, revenue guidance or AI demand exceeds expectations. The options market implies an unusually large post-earnings move, so even a moderately positive surprise could produce substantial SPY-relative performance before September 11 at 18:41 UTC. Risks: this is a binary earnings selection. Very high capital expenditure, negative free cash flow, rising debt, weaker cloud margins, capacity delays or disappointing guidance could cause a sharp decline. Friday CPI could also pressure long-duration technology valuations even after a good report.
Return: -2.59%; alpha: -3.58%. - XLE — confidence 76.0000%. Thesis: Energy has the strongest direct fundamental hedge against the macro shock currently hurting SPY. Brent crude surged to roughly $107 and WTI above $100 as attacks on shipping and disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea intensified. The disruption is geopolitical rather than merely demand-driven, increasing the probability that elevated crude prices persist through the short forecast window. Oil has risen more than 30% since early August, while OPEC output disruptions and renewed Chinese crude purchases reinforce tight physical-market conditions. XLE provides diversified exposure to U.S. energy producers and should have a better probability of outperforming SPY if oil remains near current levels or rises further. Risks: energy equities have occasionally failed to follow sharp same-day oil gains in 2026, suggesting some crude strength is already priced in. Any ceasefire, restoration of shipping flows, sudden oil reversal, or unexpectedly weak demand signal could quickly reduce the sector's relative advantage.
Return: -0.15%; alpha: -1.14%. - XOM — confidence 73.0000%. Thesis: Exxon Mobil offers concentrated large-cap upstream exposure to the same supply shock supporting crude prices, with less sensitivity than most growth stocks to rising Treasury yields. Brent near $107 and WTI above $100 materially improve near-term upstream economics, and escalating tanker attacks increase the chance that the oil risk premium remains elevated through September 11. Exxon also offers high liquidity and lower company-specific volatility than smaller exploration producers, which is useful for a one-session relative-performance experiment. If Friday CPI reinforces inflation concerns and weighs on SPY, an oil producer can still outperform because the inflation impulse is partly being generated by the commodity it sells. Risks: Exxon may lag crude during abrupt geopolitical spikes, especially if investors expect high oil prices to destroy demand or trigger policy intervention. A rapid de-escalation in the Middle East could remove the oil premium and cause immediate relative underperformance.
Return: -0.03%; alpha: -1.02%. - META — confidence 68.0000%. Thesis: Meta has strong recent relative momentum following the launch of Muse, its autonomous AI assistant capable of interacting with external applications. Shares gained more than 6% after the announcement while the broader market declined, demonstrating unusually strong event-driven relative demand. The product creates a potentially monetizable AI layer through free and paid subscription tiers and reinforces Meta's positioning beyond traditional advertising. Recent positive analyst attention to Meta's AI strategy adds support for continuation during a weak tape. The key attraction for this experiment is demonstrated relative strength: investors have recently bought META despite rising oil prices and Treasury yields that pressured most technology stocks. Risks: the initial move was already large and could mean the catalyst is substantially priced in. Muse has documented security and reliability concerns, and renewed attention to AI-agent regulation could reverse sentiment. A hotter-than-expected CPI report could also compress valuation multiples across megacap growth stocks.
Return: 0.44%; alpha: -0.55%. - AAPL — confidence 65.0000%. Thesis: Apple is showing notable relative strength immediately after its major September product launch. Shares were up roughly 3% on September 10 while both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were lower. The new $1,999 iPhone Duo represents Apple's first foldable smartphone and its largest form-factor change in years, while the iPhone 18 Pro, upgraded wearables and privacy-focused AI features broaden the product catalyst. Analysts expect Apple to capture a meaningful portion of the foldable-phone market, and higher device pricing could support revenue if demand proves resilient. For this short window, the combination of a fresh product cycle and confirmed positive relative price action makes AAPL more attractive than semiconductor names currently being hurt by rising yields. Risks: substantial price increases may weaken unit demand, particularly internationally, and the launch could turn into a sell-the-news event after today's gain. Higher rates and Friday CPI remain important market risks, while memory and storage cost inflation could pressure hardware margins.
Return: 2.72%; alpha: 1.73%.
DeepSeek V3
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US equities enter the 2026-09-11 session under pressure after a hot PPI print (wholesale inflation at 5.4%), Brent crude above $100, and 10-year Treasury yields at a three-year high near 4.92%. SPY closed at $762.40 on Sept 10, below its 50-day moving average and key support at $760.40, with breadth negative and small caps leading declines. The critical catalyst is the August CPI release at 8:30 AM ET on Sept 11; a hot core print could intensify rate-hike fears and extend the selloff, while a cool print could spark a relief bounce. In this environment, I favor stocks with strong idiosyncratic catalysts (analyst upgrades, earnings beats, M&A) and energy exposure as an inflation hedge. I expect energy, defensives, and select catalyst-driven names to outperform SPY over the one-session window.
- META — confidence 72.0000%. Thesis: JPMorgan upgraded Meta to Overweight from Neutral and raised its price target to $820 from $640, citing 'meaningful upside potential' as Meta rolls out its AI models and consumer AI agent product Muse. Muse reached #3 on the US App Store within two days of launch, with initial usage 10x the training-phase test group. This is a fresh, high-conviction analyst catalyst that can drive relative outperformance even in a weak tape. Meta had rallied 6.6% on Sept 9 and gave back only 0.7% on Sept 10 despite broad market weakness, showing relative resilience. Risks: A hot CPI print could pressure high-multiple mega-cap tech; Meta's AI infrastructure spending remains a margin overhang; the stock may already have priced in some of the upgrade.
Return: 0.44%; alpha: -0.55%. - AVAV — confidence 68.0000%. Thesis: AeroVironment reported a massive fiscal Q1 2027 earnings beat on Sept 9: adjusted EPS of $0.59 versus the $0.22 consensus (a 97% beat), with record revenue of $480.5 million (up 5.7% year over year). The drone manufacturer is benefiting from surging defense demand and its push into high-energy laser weapon systems (LOCUST). The stock gapped up over 5% on Sept 10 and was trading up roughly 7% intraday, showing strong momentum. Risks: AVAV is a high-beta defense name prone to sharp reversals; the stock had fallen 5.4% on Sept 9 before the earnings reaction, and valuation remains elevated at ~48x forward earnings; profit-taking after the gap could cap upside.
Return: -4.21%; alpha: -5.20%. - XLE — confidence 65.0000%. Thesis: Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF provides direct exposure to the strongest-performing S&P sector. Brent crude broke above $100 per barrel for the first time since July amid escalating Middle East tensions, including reports of Iran resuming ballistic missile manufacturing and attacks on tankers. Energy was the top S&P sector on Sept 10, gaining 1.5%, while the broad market fell 0.5%. In a hot-CPI environment, energy's inflation-hedge characteristics and strong earnings momentum (energy led 2026 sector returns at +11.8%) support relative outperformance. Risks: XLE reversed lower intraday on Sept 10, closing down 0.2% despite oil strength; oil prices are volatile and could retreat on demand-destruction concerns; a cool CPI print could rotate capital back into growth and away from energy.
Return: -0.15%; alpha: -1.14%. - SNPS — confidence 62.0000%. Thesis: Synopsys received a Wells Fargo upgrade to Overweight from Equal Weight on Sept 10, with the price target raised to $475 from $450. The analyst cited 'improving AI demand momentum' and expects the company's Sept 30 analyst day to provide a positive initial F2027 guide and a long-term model re-acceleration update. Morgan Stanley also upgraded SNPS to Buy on Sept 8 with a $500 target. The stock closed at $393.22 on Sept 9 and was up 0.3% on Sept 10, showing relative stability. Risks: Semiconductor design software is sensitive to rising yields and rate-hike expectations; SNPS trades at a high P/E of ~69x; a hot CPI print could pressure long-duration tech names.
Return: 1.25%; alpha: 0.26%. - CASY — confidence 58.0000%. Thesis: Casey's General Stores was upgraded by Raymond James to Outperform from Market Perform on Sept 10 with a $750 price target, citing an attractive entry point following a ~14% post-earnings pullback. As a convenience store and fuel retailer, CASY is a defensive consumer name with fuel-price leverage that could benefit from elevated oil prices. The stock was down 15% on Sept 9 after a fiscal Q1 earnings miss, creating a potential oversold bounce setup with a fresh analyst catalyst. Risks: The earnings miss and lowered guidance remain overhangs; valuation is still elevated relative to convenience-store peers; a broad market selloff on a hot CPI print could keep the stock under pressure despite the upgrade.
Return: -3.51%; alpha: -4.50%.
How models have done in AI Picked
ForecastNest's own settled AI Picked runs at this horizon, up to and including this one. Members' own research is not counted. Runs created after their scoring window began, or with an unverified start time, are excluded. The chart is the average alpha over SPY per run: how much the model's five equally weighted picks beat or trailed the benchmark. A bar drawn pale is inside its own sample noise -- the runs behind it scatter too widely for that average to separate from zero -- so read the ordering as provisional until a record is deep enough to carry it. The table below adds how many of the picks beat SPY, which is a steadier measure on a short record because it counts five picks a run rather than one portfolio.
Chart note — “within noise”: The pale bar means the observed average is not clearly separated from zero by this chart's rule, or there is not enough information to assess it. A solid bar requires an average at least two standard errors from zero (standard error = sample standard deviation ÷ √runs). Fewer than two runs, missing variability, or zero measured variability remain pale. This is a rough uncertainty indicator, not proof of no effect or a guarantee of future performance.
| Model | Runs | Avg picks that beat SPY | Avg alpha vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kimi | 1 | 20.00% | -0.70% |
| GPT-5.6 Sol | 2 | 30.00% | -0.80% |
| Gemini 3 Pro | 1 | 40.00% | -0.88% |
| Grok 4.5 | 2 | 20.00% | -1.04% |
| Claude Opus 5 | 1 | 20.00% | -1.47% |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | 1 | 40.00% | -1.48% |
| DeepSeek | 1 | 20.00% | -2.22% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | 1 | 0.00% | -3.13% |
View settlement prices
| Symbol | Start | End | Source | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | 324.20000000 | 333.02000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/history/ | |
| AVAV | 151.14000000 | 144.77500000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AVAV/history/ | |
| CASY | 635.54990000 | 613.26500000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CASY/history/ | |
| CVX | 213.13000000 | 213.61000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CVX/history/ | |
| META | 646.85000000 | 649.72000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/META/history/ | |
| ORCL | 155.31920000 | 151.30000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ORCL/history/ | |
| SNPS | 394.82500000 | 399.77000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SNPS/history/ | |
| SPY | 757.82000000 | 765.32000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY/history/ | |
| XLE | 65.12500000 | 65.02500000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XLE/history/ | |
| XOM | 165.34000000 | 165.29000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XOM/history/ | |
| XOP | 196.40000000 | 195.42500000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XOP/history/ |
Standard prompt stock-selection-v7, SHA-256 ab6b395e41c0b0c6737b010396279da8389136c18d1d62a5a95549339f503407. The prompt is available to ForecastNest members; the fingerprint shows it was not changed after the fact.
Calculation: equal-weight-alpha-v1.