Sep 10, 2026 - 7 AI models pick stocks after market close. 2 models beat SPY

Excluded from performance statistics: the forecast was created after its scoring window began (look-ahead bias). Historical results below are retained for audit only.

Asked Sep 10, 8:38 PM EDT (after hours). Claude Opus 5, Gemini 1.5 Pro, Muse Spark 1.1, GPT-5.6 Sol, Kimi, Grok 4.5 and DeepSeek V3 answered the same standard prompt independently. Window: 2026-09-10 to 2026-09-11 (1 trading session). Benchmark: SPY.

Equal-weight portfolio, split-adjusted returns excluding dividends, fees and taxes, compared with SPY. In each chart SPY is on the left and the picks on the right, every candle drawn from zero to that asset's move; ✓ marks a pick that beat SPY.

Model	Beat SPY	Hit rate	Return	SPY	Alpha
Claude Opus 5	2/5	40.00%	16.46%	0.85%	15.60%
Gemini 1.5 Pro	1/5	20.00%	0.71%	0.85%	-0.14%
Muse Spark 1.1	2/5	40.00%	0.40%	0.85%	-0.45%
GPT-5.6 Sol	1/5	20.00%	-0.06%	0.85%	-0.91%
Kimi	3/5	60.00%	2.31%	0.85%	1.46%
Grok 4.5	1/5	20.00%	0.67%	0.85%	-0.18%
DeepSeek V3	0/5	0.00%	-0.75%	0.85%	-1.61%

Claude Opus 5

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Cautious and headline-driven. The S&P 500 fell 0.58% on Thursday to 7,591.70, its fourth straight decline. WTI crude closed above $102 (+6.7%) as the US-Iran war enters its seventh month, the 10-year Treasury yield touched about 4.90%, and fed funds futures price roughly a 71% chance of a rate hike at the Sept 16 FOMC. August CPI is released Friday before the open (consensus +0.4% m/m, 3.4% y/y), and index futures were roughly flat Thursday night. That makes SPY's one-day direction close to a coin flip with fat tails. The strategy is to favor names with hard, company-specific overnight catalysts that are already visible in after-hours prices: a cash takeover, two clean earnings beats, and two relief rallies. These carry a cushion over SPY that should survive most CPI outcomes.

1. ACVA — confidence 94.0000%. Thesis: After Thursday's close, Copart signed a definitive agreement to buy ACV Auctions for $10.50 per share in cash (about $1.9B), structured as a tender offer. The deal has no financing condition, both boards approved it unanimously, and holders of about 4.1% of shares signed tender support agreements. ACVA closed the regular session near $7.22 and traded around $10.32-10.38 after hours. Merger-arbitrage pricing should pin the stock just below the offer, implying roughly +42-44% versus the starting close, a gain SPY cannot plausibly match in one session. Risks: HSR/antitrust or other regulatory concerns could widen the arbitrage spread. A deal break or adverse legal headline overnight is very unlikely but would be catastrophic. The upside is capped near $10.50 unless a competing bid emerges; Stephens had earlier named Cox Auto and RB Global as possible buyers.
   Return: 44.18%; alpha: 43.33%.
2. ORCL — confidence 73.0000%. Thesis: Fiscal Q1 2027 was a clean beat. Adjusted EPS was $1.92 versus $1.74 expected, and revenue was $19.35B versus $19.14B. Cloud infrastructure revenue more than doubled, and remaining performance obligations reached $664B versus a StreetAccount consensus of about $630.6B. Oracle raised its FY27 outlook to at least $90B in revenue and $8.10 adjusted EPS. It also said more than $30B in new AI contracts will not change its capital-raising plan. The stock fell about 5.4% to $152.94 into the print, then rebounded roughly 6-7.5% after hours to about $162.50-164. Positioning had been bearish (heavy call selling, a large year-to-date drawdown), so short covering and analyst target reiterations could extend the gain. Risks: Oracle has reversed sharply after beats before, including a 10.8% drop after its Q2 FY26 report. Q1 capex was $28.5B, free cash flow was -$5.4B, and a $20B at-the-market equity sale was completed, so bears may fade the rally. A hot CPI print that lifts yields would weigh on long-duration AI infrastructure names.
   Return: -1.74%; alpha: -2.59%.
3. FEIM — confidence 70.0000%. Thesis: Frequency Electronics posted record fiscal Q1 revenue of $23.5M, up 70% year over year and 52% sequentially, against roughly $19.25M expected. EPS was $0.41, well above consensus, and operating margin exceeded 22%. Funded backlog hit a record $129M (+82% y/y) with a 1.76 book-to-bill ratio, and management said it is more confident of reaching at least $150M in annual revenue by fiscal 2029. Satellite, government and defense programs drove the growth. Shares jumped about 27-28% after hours to near $79, and a surprise of this size on backlog and margins typically supports a strong gap that holds most of its gain. Risks: after-hours volume was very thin (only thousands of shares), so the opening print could differ materially. Small-cap momentum names often see intraday profit-taking. A July equity offering adds supply from holders who may lock in gains. Even so, the stock only needs to finish above its starting close by more than SPY's return.
   Return: 42.40%; alpha: 41.55%.
4. CPRT — confidence 63.0000%. Thesis: Copart closed down about 4% ahead of its report, then rose about 8.6% after hours to around $33.40. The rally reflects two things: fiscal Q4 revenue of $1.152B edged past the LSEG consensus of about $1.14B, and the ACV acquisition. The ACV deal is funded with cash on hand, expected to be EPS-neutral in the first full year and accretive afterward, and extends Copart into dealer-to-dealer wholesale remarketing. Investors appear relieved that Copart chose a smaller, disciplined bolt-on rather than the far larger CCC Intelligent Solutions deal that had been reported to be under discussion. Given that the stock was down about 38% over the past year, sentiment was washed out. Risks: EPS of $0.35 missed the roughly $0.39 consensus, and net income fell 17.4% on broad cost pressure. The company gave no formal guidance. Once the deal headline is digested, the relief rally could partially fade during the regular session.
   Return: -2.60%; alpha: -3.45%.
5. RH — confidence 56.0000%. Thesis: RH reported adjusted Q2 EPS of $2.70 against consensus of roughly $0.39-0.42, with revenue of $922.2M versus about $915M on LSEG estimates. It guided Q4 revenue growth to 16.1-21.2%, helped by RH Estates and backlog reduction. The stock had fallen about 22-25% over the past month and closed Thursday at $134.02 (-3.8%). Shares rose as much as about 12% after the print and were about 7% higher near $143.47 after the call, leaving a meaningful cushion. Heavy bearish positioning makes further short covering plausible. Risks: this is the lowest-conviction pick. Much of the EPS beat came from a $55.1M tariff benefit rather than operations, and revenue missed some higher consensus figures (Benzinga cited about $936M). RH is highly rate-sensitive, so a hot CPI print that pushes yields up could hit housing-linked names. The stock also has a history of large, volatile moves after Gary Friedman's commentary, and the after-hours gain had already faded from its peak.
   Return: 0.04%; alpha: -0.82%.

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Gemini 1.5 Pro

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The broader market remains under intense pressure as the S&P 500 declined for a fourth consecutive day on September 10. Investors are navigating a complex landscape of surging oil prices, with Brent crude topping $100 amid a US-Iran war and Middle East supply disruptions. Additionally, Treasury yields have soared, with the 10-year yield hitting 52-week highs near 4.954%. All eyes are on Friday's pivotal US CPI report, which could cement expectations for further Fed tightening. Consequently, defensive sectors, energy names, and companies with strong earnings catalysts are heavily favored over the broader index.

1. ORCL — confidence 85.0000%. Oracle reported Q1 fiscal 2027 earnings after the market close on September 10, beating expectations on both top and bottom lines. Adjusted EPS came in at $1.92 against estimates of $1.75, while revenue hit $19.35 billion compared to the forecasted $19.13 billion. The stock surged over 9% in after-hours trading and is well-positioned to outperform SPY during the September 11 session. Risk: The broader market's weakness ahead of the CPI report could limit its intraday momentum.
   Return: -1.74%; alpha: -2.59%.
2. XOM — confidence 80.0000%. Escalating geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran have pushed Brent crude past $100 per barrel, driven by fears over the Strait of Hormuz closure. Exxon Mobil is a primary beneficiary of this supply disruption, having climbed 30% in 2026 amid similar conditions. It provides a strong defensive hedge against the broader market decline. Risk: A sudden de-escalation in the Middle East or a bearish US CPI report could compress energy stocks and trigger profit-taking.
   Return: 0.46%; alpha: -0.39%.
3. CVX — confidence 75.0000%. Like Exxon, Chevron stands to gain significantly from the recent surge in oil prices above $100 a barrel amid the US-Iran conflict. With a forward P/E ratio that is slightly more attractive than XOM (12.6x vs. 13.3x), Chevron presents strong value and upside potential. It serves as a reliable outperformer when tech and materials are dragging down SPY. Risk: Energy stocks are vulnerable to sudden macroeconomic shifts, such as Friday's CPI report reinforcing aggressive Fed rate hike bets.
   Return: 0.61%; alpha: -0.24%.
4. ELV — confidence 70.0000%. Elevance Health jumped 4.1% on September 10 after the company reaffirmed its full-year 2026 earnings and benefit expense guidance ahead of upcoming investor meetings. In a risk-off market environment grappling with 52-week high Treasury yields, this defensive healthcare stock offers stability and momentum. Risk: Regulatory pressures or a broad market sell-off triggered by hotter-than-expected inflation data could weigh on the stock.
   Return: 0.52%; alpha: -0.33%.
5. CHTR — confidence 65.0000%. Charter Communications rose 4.5% on September 10, benefiting from a technical rebound and positive market reactions to management's growth plans following a sharp recent selloff. The communication services sector was one of the only two sectors to advance on Thursday, making CHTR a solid relative strength play. Risk: High Treasury yields and potential hawkish Fed sentiment following Friday's CPI data could stifle growth-oriented recovery plays.
   Return: 3.71%; alpha: 2.85%.

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Muse Spark 1.1

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Market enters Sep 11 session with two major after-hours earnings beats (Adobe Q3 FY26 and Oracle Q1 FY27) and Apple iPhone 18 / first foldable iPhone Duo event from Sep 9 still driving momentum. Cleveland Fed nowcast for Aug CPI due Sep 11 points to +0.38% headline and +0.20% core, flat to soft vs July, which should support growth/mega-cap tech vs SPY. Earnings beat + raised guidance + AI cloud demand favors selective tech outperformance for 1 session.

1. ORCL — confidence 78.0000%. Oracle reported Q1 FY27 after close Sep 10: $19.35B revenue +29.6% YoY vs $19.13B consensus (+1.11% surprise) and EPS $1.92 vs $1.74 consensus (+10.35% surprise). Cloud $11.61B vs $11.5B est, Cloud Infrastructure $7.39B vs $7.22B est, Hardware +15.5% YoY. RPO momentum remains key AI infrastructure signal. Stock returned +5.5% past month vs S&P -1.4%. Overnight gap and AI capex narrative should drive beta-adjusted outperformance vs SPY on Sep 11. Risks: high expectations already, valuation pullback from Sep peak, any cautious call commentary on capex or margins could reverse after-hours gains.
   Return: -1.74%; alpha: -2.59%.
2. ADBE — confidence 74.0000%. Adobe reported record Q3 FY26 after close Sep 10: $6.76B revenue +13% YoY, non-GAAP EPS $6.13 up from $5.31, beating estimates, total ARR $27.5B, RPO $22.16B, $2.52B operating cash flow. Raised FY26 targets: revenue $26.576-26.626B and non-GAAP EPS $24.45-24.50, plus Q4 target $6.80-6.85B and EPS $6.30-6.35. CEO cited 1B+ MAU and AI innovation strength. Earnings beat in oversold software name typically produces 1-day momentum vs SPY. Risks: intra-day -2.1% before print shows profit-taking, guidance raise may be modest vs whisper, broader software multiple compression if CPI hot.
   Return: 1.37%; alpha: 0.51%.
3. AAPL — confidence 68.0000%. Apple held annual iPhone event Sep 9 announcing iPhone 18 Pro/Pro Max and first foldable iPhone Duo plus Watch Series 12, Watch Ultra 4 and AirPods 5. Event was Sep 9 10am PT, so Sep 11 is T+2, historically positive as pre-order sentiment and analyst upgrades arrive. Product cycle breadth supports ASP and services attach. Large SPY weight but idiosyncratic catalyst gives edge for 1-day outperformance if CPI benign and tech risk-on. Risks: sell-the-news after event, high base, supply chain or pricing concerns could cap upside.
   Return: 1.75%; alpha: 0.89%.
4. NVDA — confidence 65.0000%. Oracle cloud infrastructure beat $7.39B vs $7.22B and RPO growth narrative signals continued AI GPU demand, direct read-through to NVDA data center revenue. Oracle + Adobe AI commentary reinforces enterprise AI monetization. If CPI core prints ~0.20% as Cleveland Fed nowcasts, rate-sensitive mega-cap growth benefits most vs SPY. NVDA beta >1 amplifies upside in risk-on tape. Risks: crowded AI trade, any hawkish CPI surprise hurts high-multiple names first, Oracle capex sustainability questions could weigh on suppliers.
   Return: -0.03%; alpha: -0.88%.
5. MSFT — confidence 62.0000%. MSFT is second-order beneficiary of both Oracle cloud validation and Adobe AI productivity narrative. Azure competes but broader cloud growth lifts all, and OpenAI/Adobe partnership ecosystem supports sentiment. Defensive mega-cap growth with strong balance sheet tends to outperform SPY on mixed CPI days when investors rotate to quality growth. Risks: correlation to SPY high so alpha small, any Azure growth concerns from Oracle share gains could limit relative performance.
   Return: 0.65%; alpha: -0.20%.

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GPT-5.6 Sol

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The September 11 session is likely to remain unusually sensitive to inflation, Treasury yields and the Middle East oil shock. The S&P 500 has fallen for four consecutive sessions, Brent crude surged above $107 and the 10-year Treasury yield approached 5%. Friday's CPI report creates substantial index-level event risk, so the strongest relative-outperformance candidates are securities with company-specific positive catalysts or direct exposure to the energy-price shock rather than broad high-duration growth exposure.

1. ORCL — confidence 86.0000%. Oracle has the strongest fresh company-specific catalyst in the candidate set. After the September 10 close, fiscal Q1 adjusted EPS of $1.92 exceeded the roughly $1.74 consensus, revenue increased 30% to $19.3 billion, and cloud-infrastructure revenue surged 121% to $7.4 billion. The backlog reached roughly $664 billion and the shares were up about 7%-8% after hours. That positive earnings gap is already partly observable within the evaluation window, while the magnitude of the cloud acceleration gives the move a plausible continuation catalyst into the regular September 11 session. The principal risks are profit-taking after the initial gap, concern about roughly $90-$95 billion of annual capital spending, negative free cash flow, increasing debt and a hotter-than-expected CPI that causes another sharp selloff in technology valuations.
   Return: -1.74%; alpha: -2.59%.
2. XLE — confidence 78.0000%. Energy has become the clearest sector-level relative-strength trade as the Iran conflict disrupts crude supplies. Brent rose more than 6% on September 10 to about $107.63 and WTI advanced roughly 6.7% to $102.48, while the broad equity market declined. XLE had already been setting record highs and has dramatically outperformed SPY in 2026. If supply-risk premiums remain elevated through September 11, oil producers should continue receiving an earnings and cash-flow tailwind while high oil prices remain a headwind for much of the rest of the S&P 500. Risks are an abrupt geopolitical de-escalation, a reversal in crude after the sharp one-day surge, demand concerns from weak economic data, or profit-taking after the sector's substantial year-to-date advance.
   Return: 0.32%; alpha: -0.53%.
3. AAPL — confidence 72.0000%. Apple demonstrated unusually strong relative strength on September 10, gaining about 3.6% while the S&P 500 fell roughly 0.6%. Investors reacted positively to the iPhone 18 lineup and Apple's first foldable iPhone Duo, while analysts highlighted potentially significant adoption of Apple's entry into the foldable category. The combination of a fresh product catalyst, positive price action against a weak tape and potential follow-through from institutional reassessment makes Apple a stronger one-session relative candidate than most megacap technology stocks. Risks include the historically common post-launch fade in Apple shares, questions about demand for a $1,999 foldable device, margin pressure from component costs and a CPI-driven rise in yields that hits large-cap technology valuations broadly.
   Return: 1.75%; alpha: 0.89%.
4. CNQ — confidence 68.0000%. Canadian Natural Resources is a US-listed producer offering concentrated exposure to the current crude-price shock. The stock has already shown strong momentum in 2026, while Brent's move above $100 materially improves the near-term commodity-price environment for upstream producers. Unlike most S&P 500 companies, higher oil prices are directly supportive of CNQ's operating cash generation, making the shares a useful relative-performance candidate if the inflation and geopolitical pressures weighing on SPY continue. The main risks are substantial overlap with the XLE thesis, a sudden fall in crude prices following diplomatic developments, broader risk-off selling overwhelming the commodity benefit, and the possibility that much of the oil shock is already reflected in the stock.
   Return: -1.44%; alpha: -2.29%.
5. BIIB — confidence 60.0000%. Biogen provides a less macro-sensitive counterweight to the energy and technology selections. On September 10, BIIB gained 2.23% to $215.43 while the S&P 500 fell 0.58%, ending a three-session losing streak and leaving the stock less than 5% below its 52-week high. That positive relative-strength signal is notable during a session dominated by rising yields and inflation fears, conditions under which defensive healthcare exposure can outperform more rate-sensitive areas of the market. Risks are the absence of a comparably powerful overnight company-specific catalyst, below-average trading volume during the September 10 advance, normal biotechnology headline volatility and the possibility that a benign CPI reading triggers a broad risk-on rebound that favors higher-beta sectors instead.
   Return: 0.80%; alpha: -0.05%.

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Kimi

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The S&P 500 has declined for three straight sessions into the September 10 close as Brent crude surged above $100 (WTI near $104, +8% on the day) on escalating US-Iran conflict — US forces destroyed five Iranian tankers and Houthi allies struck Saudi energy facilities — while Treasury yields sit at 2023 highs. In this tape, leadership is concentrated in energy (best-performing sector, XLE +48% YTD) and in idiosyncratic catalyst names: Apple is riding post-'Surprise and Shine' event momentum after unveiling its first foldable iPhone and the iPhone 18 Pro line, and the Skyworks-Qorvo merger arb is repricing higher as China's SAMR review enters its final phase. Defensive healthcare is also attracting rotation. I favor equal-weight exposure to these four themes — Apple event momentum, energy via XLE, the SWKS/QRVO merger pair, and Elevance Health's defensive momentum — over the benchmark, while avoiding rate-sensitive tech semis (NVDA, INTC fell sharply on September 10) and fuel-cost-sensitive consumer and airline names.

1. AAPL — confidence 72.0000%. Thesis: Apple rallied +3.56% to $326.57 on September 10 with heavy volume (70M vs 54M average) following its September 9 'Surprise and Shine' keynote — new CEO John Ternus's first product launch — which unveiled the first foldable iPhone (iPhone Duo/Ultra, $2,000-$3,000) and iPhone 18 Pro models with the A20 Pro chip. Bank of America analysis shows AAPL has gained in the 60 days following iPhone reveal days 17 times since 2007, and post-event momentum typically extends over the following sessions as product details and pre-order commentary circulate. The foldable is a genuine new category with a multi-year upgrade-cycle narrative, and AAPL's mega-cap quality profile is attractive in a risk-off tape where the broad index is falling. Risks: the classic sell-the-news pullback after a hyped event; a lofty foldable price point could draw skeptical takes; broad-market weakness and rising yields could drag even strong names; China demand and tariff headlines remain an overhang.
   Return: 1.75%; alpha: 0.89%.
2. XLE — confidence 70.0000%. Thesis: Crude oil spiked roughly 8% on September 10 to about $104/bbl, the highest since May, as the US-Iran war escalated — the US military destroyed five Iranian tankers, Iran reported strikes on US warships and tankers in the Persian Gulf, Houthi allies hit Saudi energy facilities, Saudi production fell ~1.9M bpd in August, and tanker rates hit record highs amid Strait of Hormuz disruption. Energy is by far the best-performing sector (XLE +48% YTD vs SPY roughly flat-to-negative) and the conflict shows no sign of abating, with analysts warning it could drag on for years. XLE pulled back -0.58% on September 10 despite the oil spike (intraday profit-taking after touching a 52-week high of $66.41), setting up a catch-up move on September 11 if crude holds its surge; top holdings XOM (19.9%) and CVX (15.2%) are cash-flow machines leveraged to sustained $100+ oil. Risks: a sudden de-escalation headline or ceasefire could trigger a sharp oil pullback; OPEC+ supply response; demand destruction from high prices; energy equities can diverge from crude on any given day.
   Return: 0.32%; alpha: -0.53%.
3. SWKS — confidence 62.0000%. Thesis: SWKS surged +9.79% to $84.03 on September 10 on merger-arb repricing — CEO Phil Brace confirmed China's SAMR antitrust review of the Qorvo combination has advanced to phase three, the final stage, with management targeting a year-end close; over 90% of Qorvo's 2029 and 2031 notes were tendered in exchange offers (deadline extended to September 11), and the company lined up $2B of acquisition financing plus a $2B buyback. The stock is also an Apple RF-content supplier benefiting from the iPhone 18/foldable launch cycle, and Brace's fireside chat at the Goldman Sachs Communacopia conference on September 10 could generate fresh bullish headlines going into September 11. The move occurred on a day the SOX semiconductor index fell 2%, underscoring idiosyncratic strength. Risks: the merger is not guaranteed to close and any snag could unwind the arb premium quickly; BMO initiated coverage at Market Perform with a $70 target, below the current price; a Halper Sadeh shareholder-rights investigation adds headline risk; high beta to any broad tech selloff.
   Return: 5.14%; alpha: 4.29%.
4. ELV — confidence 58.0000%. Thesis: Elevance Health jumped +5.41% to $416.54 on September 10, leading the S&P 500 gainers, with the strongest momentum in the managed-care group. The company reported Q2 2026 results ahead of expectations in July, raised 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to at least $27.00, and guided to a return to at least 12% adjusted EPS growth in 2027 — a credible turnaround narrative in a defensive sector that attracts rotation when oil-driven inflation and rising yields pressure the broader market. The stock is up ~33% over the past year, carries a forward P/E of only ~13.6x, and 15 of 22 analysts rate it Buy with a median target of $457 (+13.7%). Healthcare is a classic outperformer during geopolitical-risk-off sessions. Risks: the +5.4% single-day move may invite profit-taking on September 11; the Q3 dividend record date (September 10) has passed, removing an incremental buyer; medical-cost trend and Medicare margin execution remain watch items; a relief rally in risk assets would reduce the defensive bid.
   Return: 0.52%; alpha: -0.33%.
5. QRVO — confidence 55.0000%. Thesis: Qorvo climbed +6.77% to $112.36 on September 10 alongside Skyworks on the same merger-arb repricing — the combined $22B RF leader is nearing the finish line with China's SAMR review in its final phase and a year-end close targeted; Qorvo shareholders are the acquisition target, so the stock is a cleaner expression of deal-completion odds plus any merger-spread compression. QRVO is also a key Apple RF supplier into the iPhone 18/foldable cycle, giving it a second idiosyncratic tailwind independent of the weak broader semiconductor tape (NVDA -2.4%, INTC -5.6% on September 10). Risks: highly correlated with SWKS, so the pair concentrates portfolio risk in a single deal; if regulators delay or block the merger, both names could gap down; no same-day company-specific catalyst beyond the shared merger story; semiconductor-sector weakness could eventually pull it lower despite the idiosyncratic story.
   Return: 3.82%; alpha: 2.97%.

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Grok 4.5

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Markets closed lower on September 10 amid surging oil prices above $100 on prolonged US-Iran conflict, hotter PPI, and rising Treasury yields that lifted Fed hike odds for next week to around 70%. CPI on September 11 is the key catalyst; energy-driven inflation risks favor relative strength in oil-linked names versus the broader market, while rate-sensitive growth areas remain vulnerable.

1. XLE — confidence 68.0000%. Energy Select Sector SPDR directly captures the oil price spike and supply disruption theme from the Iran war. With WTI and Brent elevated and CPI likely to reflect energy costs, the sector should outperform SPY on the day even if broader equities soften on rate fears. Risks include a sudden de-escalation headline or weaker-than-expected energy contribution in CPI that triggers profit-taking after recent gains.
   Return: 0.32%; alpha: -0.53%.
2. XOM — confidence 65.0000%. Exxon Mobil, the largest energy weight, benefits immediately from higher crude realizations and has shown relative resilience. Continued geopolitical premium in oil supports further outperformance versus SPY into the CPI print. Risks are a sharp oil reversal on any peace signals or broader equity risk-off that hits even defensive energy names.
   Return: 0.46%; alpha: -0.39%.
3. CVX — confidence 63.0000%. Chevron offers similar direct oil leverage with strong integrated operations and has participated in the recent energy rotation. Higher oil sustains cash-flow upside and relative strength into Friday's data. Risks include sector-wide profit-taking if CPI comes in softer on core components or if yields spike further and pressure the whole market.
   Return: 0.61%; alpha: -0.24%.
4. COP — confidence 60.0000%. ConocoPhillips provides pure upstream exposure that amplifies moves in crude prices. The ongoing Middle East supply concerns and elevated oil futures favor E&P names over the broader index for the one-day horizon. Risks center on oil volatility and any CPI outcome that shifts focus away from energy and toward rate-sensitive sectors.
   Return: 0.23%; alpha: -0.63%.
5. AAPL — confidence 55.0000%. Apple posted notable strength on September 10 following the foldable iPhone launch and may retain positive momentum as a large-cap quality name. In a mixed post-CPI tape it can still outperform SPY on product-cycle enthusiasm. Risks are high: a hot CPI could hit growth and tech multiples hard, reversing the prior day's gains.
   Return: 1.75%; alpha: 0.89%.

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DeepSeek V3

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The S&P 500 fell for a fourth straight session on Sept 10, pressured by Brent crude above $100, elevated Treasury yields and inflation anxiety. August CPI at 8:30 AM ET on Sept 11 is the dominant catalyst: consensus expects headline +0.4% m/m and core +0.2% m/m (2.4% y/y). A hot core print would cement September rate-hike odds and favor banks and energy, while an in-line or cool print could spark a relief rally in rate-sensitive growth. Stock-specific earnings and M&A catalysts should drive relative outperformance regardless of the CPI outcome.

1. ORCL — confidence 72.0000%. Oracle reported a strong fiscal Q1 beat after the Sept 10 close: adjusted EPS of $1.92 versus the $1.73 consensus and revenue of $19.3 billion versus $19.14 billion expected. The company added more than $30 billion in AI cloud contracts, lifting its backlog to $664 billion, and raised FY adjusted EPS guidance to $8.10. Shares rose about 4.6% in after-hours trading to $160.04. Risks: high-multiple technology names are rate-sensitive and could sell off if CPI surprises hot; the after-hours gain may partially fade at the open; AI-driven backlog growth remains dependent on continued hyperscaler spending.
   Return: -1.74%; alpha: -2.59%.
2. RH — confidence 68.0000%. RH reported Q2 adjusted EPS of $2.70, crushing the $0.39 consensus, on revenue of $922.2 million that also beat expectations. Shares rose roughly 6.5% after hours to $142.76. Short interest is extremely elevated at 26-32% of float, creating meaningful squeeze potential on a large fundamental beat. Risks: RH is a high-beta consumer discretionary name with housing-market exposure; a hot CPI print could pressure rate-sensitive retail; the after-hours move already prices in much of the beat, limiting incremental upside.
   Return: 0.04%; alpha: -0.82%.
3. CPRT — confidence 62.0000%. Copart announced a definitive agreement to acquire ACV Auctions for $10.50 per share in cash, an approximately $1.9 billion deal that expands its position across the vehicle remarketing ecosystem. Shares jumped about 8.65% after hours to $33.35 despite a Q4 EPS miss, as investors focused on the strategic expansion. Risks: the Q4 earnings miss and deal integration risk could weigh on sentiment; the after-hours pop may fade if the broad market sells off on a hot CPI; the acquisition is subject to regulatory approval.
   Return: -2.60%; alpha: -3.45%.
4. XLE — confidence 58.0000%. Brent crude surged above $109 per barrel after Iran-related disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, and energy is the best-performing S&P 500 sector year-to-date with a gain of roughly 48%. A hot CPI print would reinforce the inflation trade and support energy equities. Risks: energy stocks gapped up and faded during the Sept 10 session, suggesting selling pressure into strength; a cool CPI print or an oil price reversal would hurt the sector; the ETF is already extended after a large multi-month run.
   Return: 0.32%; alpha: -0.53%.
5. BAC — confidence 55.0000%. Bank of America is the most interest-rate-sensitive of the mega-cap banks, with management disclosing an approximately $3 billion annual net interest income boost per 100 basis points of rate increase. With markets pricing a roughly 60-70% probability of a September rate hike, a hot CPI print would widen net interest margins and favor bank shares. Risks: a cool CPI print would reduce rate-hike odds and pressure bank stocks; BAC slipped 0.18% on Sept 10 and could lag if the market rotates into growth on a soft inflation reading.
   Return: 0.21%; alpha: -0.64%.

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How models have done in AI Picked

ForecastNest's own settled AI Picked runs at this horizon, up to and including this one. Members' own research is not counted. Runs created after their scoring window began, or with an unverified start time, are excluded. The chart is the average alpha over SPY per run: how much the model's five equally weighted picks beat or trailed the benchmark. A bar drawn pale is inside its own sample noise -- the runs behind it scatter too widely for that average to separate from zero -- so read the ordering as provisional until a record is deep enough to carry it. The table below adds how many of the picks beat SPY, which is a steadier measure on a short record because it counts five picks a run rather than one portfolio.

Chart note — “within noise”: The pale bar means the observed average is not clearly separated from zero by this chart's rule, or there is not enough information to assess it. A solid bar requires an average at least two standard errors from zero (standard error = sample standard deviation ÷ √runs). Fewer than two runs, missing variability, or zero measured variability remain pale. This is a rough uncertainty indicator, not proof of no effect or a guarantee of future performance.

Model	Runs	Avg picks that beat SPY	Avg alpha vs SPY
Kimi	1	20.00%	-0.70%
GPT-5.6 Sol	2	30.00%	-0.80%
Gemini 3 Pro	1	40.00%	-0.88%
Grok 4.5	2	20.00%	-1.04%
Claude Opus 5	1	20.00%	-1.47%
Gemini 1.5 Pro	1	40.00%	-1.48%
DeepSeek	1	20.00%	-2.22%
Muse Spark 1.1	1	0.00%	-3.13%

View settlement prices

Symbol	Start	End	Source	Notes
AAPL	326.57000000	332.27000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/history/
ACVA	7.22000000	10.41000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ACVA/history/
ADBE	248.83000000	252.23000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ADBE/history/
BAC	62.56000000	62.69000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BAC/history/
BIIB	215.43000000	217.15000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BIIB/history/
CHTR	140.56000000	145.77000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CHTR/history/
CNQ	50.80000000	50.07000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CNQ/history/
COP	137.04000000	137.35000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/COP/history/
CPRT	30.75000000	29.95000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CPRT/history/
CVX	212.76000000	214.06000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CVX/history/
ELV	416.54000000	418.72000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ELV/history/
FEIM	62.06000000	88.37500000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FEIM/history/
MSFT	492.44000000	495.63000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history/
NVDA	218.36000000	218.29000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/history/
ORCL	152.94000000	150.28000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ORCL/history/
QRVO	112.36000000	116.65000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/QRVO/history/
RH	134.02000000	134.07000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/RH/history/
SPY	757.83000000	764.29000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY/history/
SWKS	84.03000000	88.35000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SWKS/history/
XLE	64.93000000	65.14000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XLE/history/
XOM	165.23000000	165.99000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XOM/history/

Standard prompt stock-selection-v7, SHA-256 47292ab848c2a88c2bdf2f106a6f662102350fb8b819c64de512c57dd50821ce. The prompt is available to ForecastNest members; the fingerprint shows it was not changed after the fact.

Calculation: equal-weight-alpha-v1.