Asked Sep 14, 10:14 AM EDT (morning session). GPT-6, Muse Spark 1.1, Gemini 1.5 Pro, Claude Opus 5, Grok 4.5 and DeepSeek V3 answered the same standard prompt independently. Window: from Sep 14, 10:14 AM EDT to Sep 15, 10:14 AM EDT, the same time one session later. Benchmark: SPY.
Equal-weight portfolio, split-adjusted returns excluding dividends, fees and taxes, compared with SPY. In each chart SPY is on the left and the picks on the right, every candle drawn from zero to that asset's move; ✓ marks a pick that beat SPY.
| Model | Beat SPY | Hit rate | Return | SPY | Alpha |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-6 | 2/5 | 40.00% | -0.46% | -0.36% | -0.11% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | 2/5 | 40.00% | -0.65% | -0.36% | -0.29% |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | 2/5 | 40.00% | -0.25% | -0.36% | 0.10% |
| Claude Opus 5 | 1/5 | 20.00% | -0.72% | -0.36% | -0.37% |
| Grok 4.5 | 3/5 | 60.00% | 1.04% | -0.36% | 1.39% |
| DeepSeek V3 | 2/5 | 40.00% | -4.88% | -0.36% | -4.53% |
GPT-6
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I favor continued rotation toward energy and defensive exposures through 2026-09-15T14:14:00.000Z. Monday's opening reports describe technology weakness and renewed oil pressure. [AP market report](https://apnews.com/article/0b44bfb43960c6ae850567c0c4e5003a). Retrieved ETF quotes precede the window's start, so their morning gains are evidence of rotation, not returns already earned in this experiment. SPY had recovered from its opening price by 10:09 ET, making a broader rebound the main counterargument. [SPY quote](https://stockanalysis.com/etf/spy/). Each selection has 20% weight; confidence estimates the probability of outperforming SPY over the exact requested window. These probabilities are subjective and uncalibrated. The September 15 Empire Manufacturing Survey is a potential catalyst. [New York Fed calendar](https://www.newyorkfed.org/regional-economy/calendar).
- XLE — confidence 62.0000%. Renewed oil-supply disruption offers the clearest immediate earnings catalyst among the sectors reviewed. Reuters reported a roughly 3% Brent increase Monday amid attacks affecting regional energy infrastructure. [Reuters report](https://www.brecorder.com/news/amp/40439374). XLE provides exposure to energy producers and related businesses. [Fund profile](https://www.ssga.com/us/en/individual/etfs/state-street-energy-select-sector-spdr-etf-xle). Its 09:53 ET snapshot showed a 0.94% gain, although it was below its opening price. I expect persistent supply uncertainty to support relative performance after the baseline. Risks: rapid repairs, diplomatic progress, oil-price reversal and an opening rally that has already priced in the news. [Quote](https://stockanalysis.com/etf/xle/).
Return: -0.68%; alpha: -0.32%. - XLP — confidence 60.0000%. Consumer staples provide exposure to relatively stable household demand while investors reassess technology risk. XLP's 09:53 ET snapshot showed a 1.38% gain and a price above its opening level, supporting a rotation thesis rather than merely an opening gap. I expect that preference to persist into Tuesday morning. [Quote](https://stockanalysis.com/etf/xlp/), [fund profile](https://www.ssga.com/us/en/individual/etfs/state-street-consumer-staples-select-sector-spdr-etf-xlp). Risks: the defensive move could reverse as technology recovers; higher transport and packaging costs can also pressure staples margins. The pre-window advance does not count toward forecast performance.
Return: -0.96%; alpha: -0.60%. - XLV — confidence 58.0000%. Health care offers another source of earnings demand less directly tied to AI investment. XLV was up 1.20% in its 09:58 ET snapshot, indicating early investor preference despite broader technology weakness. My inference is that this relative resilience can continue over the remaining session and overnight. [Quote](https://stockanalysis.com/etf/xlv/), [fund profile](https://www.ssga.com/us/en/individual/etfs/state-street-health-care-select-sector-spdr-etf-xlv). Risks: the snapshot was below XLV's opening price, suggesting some fading demand. Drug-pricing headlines, insurer developments or a broad growth-stock rebound could overwhelm the defensive thesis.
Return: -0.21%; alpha: 0.14%. - RSP — confidence 57.0000%. Equal weighting reduces the influence of the largest technology companies compared with SPY. AP reported more S&P 500 constituents rising than falling shortly after the open despite the index declining; RSP's 09:52 ET snapshot was positive by 0.12%. This supports a forecast of continued broader-market resilience relative to capitalization-weighted SPY. [AP breadth report](https://apnews.com/article/0b44bfb43960c6ae850567c0c4e5003a), [RSP quote and description](https://stockanalysis.com/etf/rsp/). Risks: a megacap rebound would reverse the advantage, while spreading economic weakness could hurt RSP's cyclical constituents. These snapshots are not synchronized baseline prices.
Return: -0.47%; alpha: -0.11%. - SGOV — confidence 55.0000%. This selection expresses a modest expectation that SPY declines from the requested baseline. SGOV holds very short-term Treasury exposure; its issuer reports effective duration of 0.10 years as of September 11, supporting an expectation of limited price movement. A nearly flat traded-price return could therefore outperform falling equities. [Issuer profile](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/314116/ishares-0-3-month-treasury-bond-etf). Risks: even a modest SPY rebound would likely defeat this thesis, and spreads or small premium changes matter over one session. No dividend return is assumed; the latest reported ex-dividend date was September 1. [Distribution history](https://stockanalysis.com/etf/sgov/).
Return: 0.00%; alpha: 0.36%.
Muse Spark 1.1
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Sep 14 morning: Brent crude spiked to $106.69 up 1.99% and $109.36 up 4.55% per Trading Economics and financefeeds updates, with WTI $102 up 1.95%. Pipeline shock narrative into Fed week (Sep 15-16 FOMC) dominates. Morning Market Brief Sep 14 notes yields high (4.86% cited) and energy leading, XLE gained 0.83% Wednesday and poised to extend. Zacks Sep 14 growth list flags BP as Rank #1 with 32.4% earnings estimate increase. Fed hike odds near 86% per bestcanadianstocks piece and 58-66% elsewhere, pressuring growth vs SPY while energy outperforms. For 1 trading session starting Sep 14 14:14 UTC, energy beta should beat SPY.
- XLE — confidence 74.0000%. Energy Select Sector SPDR directly captures Brent spike. Source Trading Economics: Brent rose to $109.36 up 4.55% Sep 14 and $106.69 up 1.99%. Marketframework notes XLE gained 0.83% Wednesday on crude above $100 and remains poised to extend, with ExxonMobil up >1% premarket. In Fed-hike fear tape where SPY faces multiple compression, XLE's commodity correlation provides relative strength. Risks: oil reversal if Hormuz talks resume, profit-taking after 20% monthly rise, and broad market selloff dragging all sectors.
Return: -0.68%; alpha: -0.32%. - XOM — confidence 71.0000%. ExxonMobil largest SPY energy weight and premarket leader per marketframework: advanced >1% premarket on crude >$100. Benefits from WTI $102 and Brent $106-109. High liquidity, low duration vs SPY tech. Positive earnings revisions in oil patch. Thesis for 1-day outperformance: direct leverage to spot price move already observable at window open. Risks: crude intraday reversal, higher rates pressuring overall market including XOM, and overbought after weekly gain 8.65% for Brent to $104.61 per Data Talk.
Return: -0.22%; alpha: 0.14%. - CVX — confidence 69.0000%. Chevron second mega-cap oil, similarly leveraged to Brent $106-109 spike. Zacks sector rotation note Sep 3 highlighted CVX as top energy pick for September alongside JPM and UNH when rates and oil shape month. With Brent up 62% YoY and 20% past month, CVX cash flow improves intraday. Likely to outperform SPY if energy leads. Risks: operational issues, refining margin squeeze, and geopolitical de-escalation hitting crude.
Return: -0.44%; alpha: -0.08%. - BP — confidence 66.0000%. BP flagged as Zacks Rank #1 Strong Buy on Sep 14 Best Growth Stocks list with consensus estimate for current year earnings up 32.4% over last 60 days and Growth Score B. International exposure to Brent provides torque to $106-109 print. Positive estimate momentum gives extra alpha vs SPY for next session. Risks: UK windfall tax headlines, FX GBP/USD volatility, and lag vs US peers if US oil lags Brent.
Return: 0.18%; alpha: 0.54%. - VLO — confidence 64.0000%. Valero Energy refining play with strong momentum: 56.82% 12-week change per Zacks Best Energy Sep 2026 screen, forward PE 9.3 and EPS growth 287%. Refining margins widen when crude rallies and product tight, supporting intraday outperformance vs SPY which is weighed by high-yield pressure. Higher beta version of energy trade for 1-day. Risks: crack spread collapse if crude spike not passed through, inventory build headline, and high volatility causing sharp reversals.
Return: -2.08%; alpha: -1.72%.
Gemini 1.5 Pro
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The market is currently entering a defensive, risk-off posture driven by a confluence of macroeconomic and geopolitical headwinds. The S&P 500 is under pressure as surging oil prices—stoked by fresh drone strikes in Saudi Arabia and attacks in the Strait of Hormuz—feed directly into the inflation narrative. With Friday's hotter CPI report pushing the probability of a 25-basis-point FOMC rate hike this week to roughly 85%, rising bond yields are triggering a sharp rotation out of high-beta AI and semiconductor stocks. In this environment, commodity-linked equities, defense contractors, and select software names with idiosyncratic catalysts are strongly positioned to outperform the broader benchmark over the next trading session.
- USO — confidence 85.0000%. Thesis: Brent crude is jumping toward $106 a barrel following weekend attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and a drone strike temporarily shutting down Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline. As a direct oil tracker, USO provides immediate exposure to the commodity's supply-shock premium, offering a strong, non-correlated hedge against the broader SPY decline. Risks: A sudden de-escalation in Middle Eastern hostilities or a rapid, unexpected restoration of the Saudi pipeline could cause a swift reversal in the geopolitical risk premium currently priced into crude oil.
Return: -0.24%; alpha: 0.11%. - XLE — confidence 80.0000%. Thesis: Energy is the clearest sector outperformer in the current tape. Driven by the high probability of a Fed rate hike and the Middle East oil shock, capital is rotating out of growth and tech into energy value. XLE provides diversified, blue-chip exposure to this rotation and will benefit directly from expanding cash flows tied to the spike in crude prices. Risks: A surprisingly hawkish tone from the Fed on Wednesday could drive the US Dollar sharply higher earlier than expected, which historically acts as a headwind for dollar-denominated commodities and the broader energy sector.
Return: -0.68%; alpha: -0.32%. - CRWD — confidence 75.0000%. Thesis: Amid a broad tech selloff triggered by frontier AI safety concerns and industry warnings, CrowdStrike is demonstrating relative strength, climbing in early trading after CEO George Kurtz positioned the cybersecurity sector as the necessary foundation to making AI development safer. This idiosyncratic, defensive tech narrative should help it outpace the tech-heavy SPY. Risks: If the broader market correction deepens significantly ahead of the FOMC meeting, high-beta software stocks like CRWD could eventually succumb to the macro selling pressure regardless of their individual news cycles.
Return: 2.33%; alpha: 2.69%. - LMT — confidence 75.0000%. Thesis: With escalating hostilities in the Middle East, including Houthi forces capturing the strategic island of Perim, prime defense contractors traditionally catch a safe-haven bid. Lockheed Martin's defensive profile, unassailable government contracts, and consistent cash flows make it an ideal candidate to outperform the S&P 500 during periods of sudden geopolitical de-risking. Risks: Defense stocks can be slow-moving and may underperform if the broader market quickly digests the geopolitical news and pivots entirely back to trading the FOMC interest rate narrative.
Return: -0.59%; alpha: -0.23%. - VLO — confidence 70.0000%. Thesis: Valero benefits from the structural tailwind of surging crude prices and the resulting strength in refining margins. Furthermore, high-profile backing from Michael Burry, who recently confirmed keeping a sizable position running on a dividend reinvestment program, provides a strong sentiment floor and robust retail interest for the stock in a volatile tape. Risks: Refining margins (crack spreads) do not always move in perfect lockstep with raw crude prices; if crude spikes too fast without a corresponding, immediate increase in refined product pricing, margins could temporarily compress.
Return: -2.08%; alpha: -1.72%.
Claude Opus 5
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The window opens into an unusually clean dispersion day. Two shocks hit over the weekend and both cut against SPY's composition. First, an AI-safety shock: Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei published an essay on Saturday calling for the industry to slow the pace of frontier model development, and OpenAI's Sam Altman and xAI's Elon Musk publicly agreed, with Altman suggesting OpenAI's IPO might be delayed to focus on safety (Reuters via investing.com, CNBC, WSJ via investrade.com). The semiconductor and AI complex sold off globally: Nvidia fell more than 2% premarket, Marvell dropped 7.59%, QQQ was down 1.45% premarket, and SK Hynix and Samsung fell in Asia, with Samsung down 4.05% (finance.yahoo.com, thestreet.com). Second, an energy shock: Saudi Arabia shut a key pipeline that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz, pushing Brent up roughly 3% to $107.65 and WTI futures up 4.30% (investrade.com, finance.yahoo.com). The resulting tape at the open shows the Nasdaq Composite down 0.9% to 1.17%, the S&P 500 down 0.5% to 0.75%, the Dow down only 0.21% to 0.3%, and the Russell 2000 actually up 0.45% (cnbc.com, thestreet.com). That spread is the entire thesis: SPY carries roughly a third of its weight in the mega-cap technology names being de-rated, so almost any construction that underweights them and overweights real assets should beat it over one session. The FOMC decision lands Wednesday 16 September, outside this window, so Tuesday morning remains pre-event with rate-hike odds near 88% on CME data. The shared risk across these picks is timing: the window opened at 10:14 ET with much of the energy move and the AI selloff already in the price, so an intraday mean-reversion or a headline walking back either shock would leave these positions chasing a move that has already happened.
- XLE — confidence 66.0000%. Thesis: the most direct and lowest-variance expression of the live catalyst. Saudi Arabia shutting a pipeline that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz removes one of the few remaining workarounds to a strait that has already seen transits collapse, and it pushed Brent roughly 3% higher to $107.65 with WTI futures up 4.30% at the open (investrade.com, finance.yahoo.com Monday live blog). Supply-disruption headlines of this specific type tend to trend through the US session rather than fade, because the physical constraint is verifiable and repricing happens across the futures curve rather than in a single print. Energy is also the sector with the least exposure to the AI de-rating driving the rest of the tape, so it gains on an absolute basis while SPY's largest weights fall. Risks: the window opened after the gap, so a meaningful part of the move is already captured and XLE could fade intraday. Roughly 40% of the fund sits in Exxon and Chevron, which lag spot crude on sharp upside moves. Any Saudi statement that the shutdown is brief or technical, or renewed reporting on the Iran shipping talks the Financial Times has described, would unwind the premium quickly; the 11 March precedent saw Brent fall more than 9% in a session on intervention headlines. A broad risk-off cascade that drags every sector down would also compress the relative edge. Source: investrade.com/morning-preview-september-14-2026/, finance.yahoo.com/markets/live/stock-market-today-monday-september-14-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-080559558.html
Return: -0.68%; alpha: -0.32%. - XOP — confidence 62.0000%. Thesis: the high-beta version of rank 1. Exploration and production companies carry the steepest earnings leverage to the crude price because their revenue moves one-for-one with the barrel while costs are largely fixed in the short run, so on days when crude gaps 3% to 4% the E&P complex typically outpaces the integrated majors that dominate XLE. XOP is equal-weighted across a broad list of producers rather than concentrated in two supermajors, which is what gives it the higher sensitivity. With Brent at $107.65 after the pipeline shutdown and the EIA's September Short-Term Energy Outlook already assuming Middle East export constraints persist into 2027, forward curve support is not purely headline-driven. Risks: the same leverage works in reverse, and XOP falls harder than XLE on any de-escalation or intraday crude fade. Smaller-capitalisation producers carry balance-sheet sensitivity to Treasury yields, which are at 52-week highs going into Wednesday's FOMC, so a hawkish pre-positioning move on Tuesday morning could offset part of the commodity gain. Single-name concentration is lower than a stock pick but higher than XLE, and the fund is more volatile than the benchmark in both directions, meaning it can underperform SPY simply by being caught in a broad-market drawdown. Source: investrade.com/morning-preview-september-14-2026/, www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/global_oil.php
Return: -0.63%; alpha: -0.27%. - RSP — confidence 59.0000%. Thesis: the cleanest structural bet against SPY's problem rather than a bet on any particular sector. RSP holds the same S&P 500 constituents at equal weight, so it carries roughly 0.2% in Nvidia instead of the several percent SPY carries, and the mega-cap technology block that is being repriced today shrinks from about a third of the index to a small fraction. The evidence is already visible in the tape: the Dow is down only 0.21% to 0.3% and the Russell 2000 is up 0.45% while the Nasdaq Composite falls 0.9% to 1.17% and the S&P 500 falls 0.5% to 0.75% (cnbc.com, thestreet.com). When the decline is led by the index's heaviest weights, equal weighting mechanically outperforms. This is a high-hit-rate, low-magnitude position, which is why it sits in the middle of the ranking rather than at the top. Risks: the outperformance is small in absolute terms and can be erased by a single afternoon reversal in Nvidia or the other mega-caps, which have repeatedly bought back early AI-scare selloffs this year. RSP also has a higher weight in rate-sensitive mid-caps and financials, so it is more exposed than SPY to a yield spike ahead of Wednesday's decision. If the AI warnings are read as regulatory noise rather than a capex signal, the dispersion closes within hours. Source: www.cnbc.com/2026/09/13/stock-futures-today-live-updates.html, www.thestreet.com/stock-market-today/stock-market-today-dow-jones-sp-500-nasdaq-updates-sept-14-2026
Return: -0.47%; alpha: -0.11%. - ITA — confidence 56.0000%. Thesis: the same geopolitical headline read through a different lens. A Saudi decision to shut a Hormuz-bypass pipeline is an escalation rather than a routine outage, and it follows Houthi strikes on Saudi energy facilities and an Iran conflict that reporting suggests may extend for years. Aerospace and defence names are bid on escalation headlines because the implied duration of the conflict, not the daily oil price, drives procurement and munitions replenishment expectations. Critically for this window, the sector carries no exposure to the AI capex narrative being repriced today, so it should hold or gain while SPY's technology block falls. Risks: this is partially the same trade as ranks 1 and 2, so the diversification it appears to offer is smaller than it looks; a de-escalation headline hits all three at once. Defence trades at elevated multiples after a long run and its beta to a broad risk-off session is close to one, so the most likely way this fails is not a decline but simply tracking SPY rather than beating it. Appropriations and continuing-resolution headlines are an unpredictable single-session risk, and the sector often lags on the first day of a shock before catching a bid later in the week. Source: investrade.com/morning-preview-september-14-2026/, www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-13/us-stock-futures-fall-on-ai-warning-oil-gains-markets-wrap
Return: -1.63%; alpha: -1.27%. - XLV — confidence 54.0000%. Thesis: the deliberate hedge in the basket, and the only pick that does not depend on the Middle East premium holding. Health care has essentially no AI capex exposure and a beta near 0.8, which is the combination that outperforms on a session led lower by mega-cap technology; the same pattern was visible in past AI-driven drawdowns, where defensive sectors held while the Nasdaq fell multiple percent. It also has the lightest exposure among major sectors to a crude spike working as a consumer tax, and it is one of the areas Schwab's research group has flagged as benefiting from operational efficiency and biotechnology gains rather than from the rate or commodity cycle. If the oil move fades intraday and the other four positions give back their gains, this is the one that should still be flat to positive against SPY. Risks: XLV is roughly a 10% weight inside SPY itself, so even a correct call yields modest relative outperformance, which is why it ranks last. Drug-pricing and policy headlines are idiosyncratic and unpredictable over a single session. The clearest failure mode is a sharp afternoon recovery in the mega-caps, in which case defensives lag badly and this position underperforms outright while the market closes higher. Source: www.schwab.com/learn/story/stock-sector-outlook, www.cnbc.com/2026/09/13/stock-futures-today-live-updates.html
Return: -0.21%; alpha: 0.14%.
Grok 4.5
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US equities opened lower on Monday with Nasdaq and S&P futures pressured by AI-sector jitters after Anthropic and OpenAI executives called for slower AI development, plus rising oil prices and elevated Fed hike odds ahead of the September 16 FOMC decision. Semiconductor and AI-hardware names are weak while cybersecurity, software, and energy show relative strength. SPY is trading lower in the session; the short 1-day window favors names already displaying intraday resilience or direct benefit from higher oil.
- CRWD — confidence 62.0000%. CrowdStrike is outperforming in premarket and early trade as cybersecurity names benefit from heightened focus on AI-related security risks following weekend commentary from Anthropic and OpenAI. Relative strength versus the broader tech complex and SPY is already visible. Primary risk is a broad risk-off cascade if the AI sell-off deepens or if yields spike further ahead of the Fed.
Return: 2.33%; alpha: 2.69%. - PANW — confidence 60.0000%. Palo Alto Networks is similarly bid on the AI-security theme and has shown early-session gains while semiconductor and hardware peers decline. It offers a liquid way to capture defensive tech rotation within the 1-day window. Risk is profit-taking or correlation with the wider market if SPY accelerates lower.
Return: 2.48%; alpha: 2.83%. - CVX — confidence 58.0000%. Chevron benefits directly from the sharp rise in oil prices (WTI and Brent both higher on geopolitical supply concerns). Energy is one of the few sectors showing positive relative performance while the broad market is under pressure. Risk is a sudden reversal in crude if risk sentiment stabilizes or if equities stage a broad rebound.
Return: -0.44%; alpha: -0.08%. - CRM — confidence 55.0000%. Salesforce has posted notable gains amid the software relative strength that is offsetting some of the AI-hardware weakness. It provides exposure to enterprise software demand that is less directly tied to the semiconductor sell-off. Risk is that any intensification of the broader tech sell-off pulls software names lower as well.
Return: 1.49%; alpha: 1.85%. - XLE — confidence 53.0000%. The Energy Select Sector SPDR offers diversified exposure to the oil-price tailwind that is supporting energy stocks while SPY is lower. It is a liquid vehicle for capturing the sector’s relative outperformance on the day. Risk is a sharp drop in crude prices or a broad equity rebound that reduces the relative edge.
Return: -0.68%; alpha: -0.32%.
DeepSeek V3
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US equities are under pressure on September 14, 2026, as AI safety warnings from Anthropic, OpenAI, and xAI leaders triggered a sharp selloff in semiconductor and AI infrastructure names, with Nasdaq-100 futures down over 1.5%. Brent crude climbed above $108 amid Middle East supply disruptions, while the Fed's rate hike decision looms on Wednesday. The market is risk-averse, but idiosyncratic catalysts in defense, biotech, and cybersecurity are creating strong relative winners.
- ELMT — confidence 90.0000%. Elmet Group surged over 46% in premarket trading after announcing a $450 million committed investment from the US Department of War to expand domestic tungsten manufacturing, along with a separate contract worth up to $2 billion from the Defense Logistics Agency to supply tungsten for the National Defense Stockpile. This is a direct national security catalyst with hard government funding, making the move highly credible and likely to sustain through the session despite broader market weakness. Risks include profit-taking after an outsized premarket gain and execution risk on the manufacturing expansion.
Return: -9.31%; alpha: -8.95%. - RUM — confidence 85.0000%. Rumble (RUM Group) jumped as much as 28% in premarket trading after The Information reported that Anthropic entered into a $13.7 billion, six-year computing contract with the company. Rumble had previously disclosed a $13.7 billion contract in an August securities filing but did not identify the customer, so this confirmation from a major AI player validates the deal. The stock is a direct beneficiary of AI infrastructure demand despite the broader AI slowdown narrative. Risks include the controversial political associations of the company and the possibility of the deal being repriced or delayed.
Return: -8.29%; alpha: -7.93%. - SRRK — confidence 80.0000%. Scholar Rock surged 9.1% in premarket trading after receiving FDA approval for Isembyld (apitegromab) as the first and only muscle-targeted treatment for spinal muscular atrophy in adults and children aged two and older. The approval came weeks earlier than expected, and analysts at BMO and Truist highlight the broad label and differentiated efficacy, with peak sales estimates reaching $2.3 billion. Biotech catalysts are largely immune to macro AI worries, giving this stock a strong idiosyncratic driver. Risks include the drug's pricing announcement and potential profit-taking after the premarket jump.
Return: -11.91%; alpha: -11.56%. - CRWD — confidence 75.0000%. CrowdStrike advanced 5.4% in premarket trading as cybersecurity stocks broadly rallied on increased AI safety concerns. The warnings from AI leaders about the risks of rapid AI development are driving demand for cybersecurity solutions as enterprises seek to safeguard against AI-related threats. CrowdStrike is a high-quality software name with recurring revenue and is benefiting from a rotation out of hardware chip stocks into software. Risks include the broader tech selloff dragging down software names and the stock giving back gains if the AI safety narrative fades.
Return: 2.33%; alpha: 2.69%. - NOW — confidence 70.0000%. ServiceNow rose 3.5% in premarket trading as software stocks moved higher on the view that slower AI development could ease disruption concerns for enterprise software companies. ServiceNow is a leading workflow automation platform with strong AI integration, and the rotation into software from semiconductors is providing a tailwind. The stock is a relative safe haven within tech during the AI selloff. Risks include the broader market decline accelerating and pulling software lower, as well as the stock's high valuation leaving it vulnerable to a reversal.
Return: 2.76%; alpha: 3.12%.
How models have done in AI Picked
ForecastNest's own settled AI Picked runs at this horizon, up to and including this one. Members' own research is not counted. Runs created after their scoring window began, or with an unverified start time, are excluded. The chart is the average alpha over SPY per run: how much the model's five equally weighted picks beat or trailed the benchmark. A bar drawn pale is inside its own sample noise -- the runs behind it scatter too widely for that average to separate from zero -- so read the ordering as provisional until a record is deep enough to carry it. The table below adds how many of the picks beat SPY, which is a steadier measure on a short record because it counts five picks a run rather than one portfolio.
Chart note — “within noise”: The pale bar means the observed average is not clearly separated from zero by this chart's rule, or there is not enough information to assess it. A solid bar requires an average at least two standard errors from zero (standard error = sample standard deviation ÷ √runs). Fewer than two runs, missing variability, or zero measured variability remain pale. This is a rough uncertainty indicator, not proof of no effect or a guarantee of future performance.
| Model | Runs | Avg picks that beat SPY | Avg alpha vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-6 | 1 | 40.00% | -0.11% |
| Kimi | 1 | 20.00% | -0.70% |
| Gemini 3 Pro | 1 | 40.00% | -0.88% |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | 4 | 45.00% | -0.96% |
| Grok 4.5 | 5 | 24.00% | -1.77% |
| GPT-5.6 Sol | 4 | 30.00% | -1.84% |
| Claude Opus 5 | 4 | 15.00% | -1.89% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | 4 | 15.00% | -2.56% |
| DeepSeek | 4 | 35.00% | -2.99% |
View settlement prices
| Symbol | Start | End | Source | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BP | 46.77000000 | 46.85500000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BP/history/ | |
| CRM | 252.88000000 | 256.65000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CRM/history/ | |
| CRWD | 230.93500000 | 236.31500000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CRWD/history/ | |
| CVX | 216.42000000 | 215.47500000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CVX/history/ | |
| ELMT | 22.11920000 | 20.06010000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ELMT/history/ | |
| ITA | 216.78510000 | 213.25000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ITA/history/ | |
| LMT | 529.23000000 | 526.10500000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/LMT/history/ | |
| NOW | 137.68460000 | 141.48500000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NOW/history/ | |
| PANW | 364.97370000 | 374.01510000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PANW/history/ | |
| RSP | 214.95000000 | 213.94000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/RSP/history/ | |
| RUM | 8.38500000 | 7.69000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/RUM/history/ | |
| SGOV | 100.53000000 | 100.53500000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SGOV/history/ | |
| SPY | 760.64000000 | 757.93000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY/history/ | |
| SRRK | 54.57000000 | 48.07000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SRRK/history/ | |
| USO | 159.79000000 | 159.40000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/USO/history/ | |
| VLO | 399.27000000 | 390.97000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/VLO/history/ | |
| XLE | 65.90500000 | 65.46000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XLE/history/ | |
| XLP | 84.45000000 | 83.64000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XLP/history/ | |
| XLV | 167.14500000 | 166.79000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XLV/history/ | |
| XOM | 168.22000000 | 167.85000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XOM/history/ | |
| XOP | 199.13000000 | 197.88000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XOP/history/ |
Standard prompt stock-selection-v7, SHA-256 056a02cf2e1476a19add1e92c751f7c0f7d98a9e522b0e4878bcd5ce8a0230ff. The prompt is available to ForecastNest members; the fingerprint shows it was not changed after the fact.
Calculation: equal-weight-alpha-v1.