This is ForecastNest’s 1 day forecast for SPY, created 2026-09-16 14:22 UTC. The window closed 2026-09-17 14:22 UTC, when SPY closed at $761.65, up 0.3% from $759.22 when the forecast was made. It traded between $749.60 and $763.41 along the way (-1.3% to +0.6%).
Prediction window: Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.
Prediction time: 2026-09-16 14:22 UTC (9/16/2026, 10:22:39 AM EDT).
Valid until: 2026-09-17 14:22 UTC (9/17/2026, 10:22:39 AM EDT). Target session: 2026-09-17 (New York); During session. Lead time to expiry: 24 elapsed hours. Timing: Regular session. Based on stored prediction time, not verified model execution time.
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3 of the 5 models called a direction, and 0 of those calls were right. Each model is also asked to find the price it was forecasting from when it answers, shown as the dashed line inside its box in the picture below. Every model found it accurately.
Below are the details.
| Model | Range | Move | Confidence | Price it found | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Opus 5 | $749.00–$770.00 | -1.6% to +1.2% | 52% | $761.00 | 31.3 | wrong |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | $751.00–$765.00 | -0.9% to +1.0% | 54% | $757.47 | 54.1 | no call |
| Claude 3.5 Sonnet | $748.50–$768.00 | -1.4% to +1.1% | 45% | $759.34 | 31.1 | wrong |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | $751.00–$767.00 | -1.1% to +1.1% | 60% | $759.01 | 54.2 | no call |
| GPT-6 | $748.00–$768.00 | -1.5% to +1.1% | 55% | $759.70 | 31.6 | wrong |
How these models have done on SPY over 1 day
This forecast is settled and is included in the statistics below. The remaining records are forecasts created before 2026-09-16 14:22 UTC. Only settled directional calls count toward accuracy.
| Model | Asked | Still open | No call | Called up | Called down | Right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Opus 5 | 11 | — | 4 | — | 7 · 4 right | 57% (4/7) |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | 4 | — | 2 | — | 2 · 1 right | 50% (1/2) |
| Claude 3.5 Sonnet | 3 | — | 1 | — | 2 · 1 right | 50% (1/2) |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | 11 | — | 9 | — | 2 · 1 right | 50% (1/2) |
| GPT-6 | 4 | — | 1 | — | 3 · 1 right | 33% (1/3) |
Every published SPY forecast these models made over 1 day before this question was asked, on 2026-09-16 14:22 UTC, plus this settled forecast. Forecasts created after this question are excluded. Results reflect the settlements available when this article is generated. A day-ahead call and a week-ahead one are counted separately — they are different questions. Only settled forecasts are graded, so open + no call + up + down adds up to asked. “No call” is a range too centred on the price to be pointing anywhere. Accuracy counts only forecasts that have settled, and the count behind it is shown beside it — a single right call is not a 100% record.
What each model said
Claude Opus 5
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) What I found, and where: SPY closed Tuesday 15 September at $758.75, up $1.31 or 0.17%, per the header on Yahoo Finance's SPY history page (finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY/history). Investing.com shows today's opening price at $759.00 (investing.com/etfs/spdr-s-p-500-historical-data). This morning Yahoo's live blog had the S&P 500 up 0.2% and the Nasdaq up 0.4% with the Dow slightly below flat as of 9:54 ET, and 24/7 Wall St. reports SPY gaining 0.35%. That gives roughly $761.00, my anchor. MacroTrends puts the all-time closing high at $777.88 on 13 August 2026 with a 52-week high of $779.37, so the fund sits about 2.2% below its record. 24/7 Wall St. separately logged SPY at $757.09 during Tuesday's session. My intraday readings predate the 14:22 UTC baseline by roughly half an hour, so data_access is 'partial'.
(2) Market regime: the entire window is defined by one event. A quarter-point hike to 3.75%-4.00% is priced at 92.9% on CME FedWatch, the first increase since July 2023 after six cuts totalling 175 basis points, with follow-on hike odds of 39.1% for October and 26.4% for December (cnbc.com/2026/09/15/stock-market-today-live-updates.html). Because the decision is discounted, the variance sits in the Summary of Economic Projections and the press conference. The June dot plot already showed nine officials expecting at least one hike this year and six expecting at least two, with Chair Warsh submitting no forecast, and this update adds 2029 for the first time (tradingeconomics.com/united-states/interest-rate). The backdrop is a supply shock, not a demand boom: the 10-year is at its highest since the financial crisis after touching 5.04% Tuesday, oil remains above $100 on Saudi cargo cancellations, yet August retail sales reaccelerated to 1.2% against 0.9% expected. The VIX sits near 17.8, up 4.2%, which is elevated but not fearful.
(3) Price range: anchored at $761.00 with a downside tilt. Realised volatility has been modest, with recent full-day ranges under 1%, but a decision plus dot plot plus press conference plus the following morning is the classic vol-expansion setup, so I am using a daily sigma near 1.1% rather than the 0.75% I used for the pre-event window. That gives about -1.6% to +1.2%, or $749.00 to $770.00. The reference levels are Monday's $757.93 low and the $756.64 area below, and the record $777.88 close far above. The asymmetry reflects the specific shape of the risk: the hike itself cannot surprise, so the distribution of surprises is skewed toward a more hawkish projection path than currently priced.
(4) Catalysts inside the window: the FOMC statement and Summary of Economic Projections at 14:00 ET today, Chair Warsh's press conference at 14:30, and then Thursday's pre-market and opening hour, which includes weekly jobless claims and the Philadelphia Fed survey at 8:30 ET before the window closes at 10:22 ET. The Bank of Japan also meets overnight, and with the global long end already under pressure, any hawkish shift there transmits into US yields. Warsh's documented reluctance to offer forward guidance is itself a source of variance, which Wolfe Research's Chris Senyek described by calling him a wildcard.
(5) Strongest counter-argument: CNBC has run the case that the market could do something unusual this week and rally on a rate hike, on the logic that a 92.9%-priced decision removes uncertainty rather than adding it, and the tape is already leaning that way with the Nasdaq leading this morning. Retail sales at 1.2% argue the economy can absorb the move. Against that, Senyek notes that in prior cycles the first hike produced near-term downward pressure on equities, and CNBC observes that Fed days have not been kind to the market in 2026. That the index is rallying into the event is itself a mild negative, since it means positioning is not defensive and there is less room for relief. A close above $765 with the Nasdaq leading would invalidate the lean; a break of $757.93 would confirm it.
(6) Why 52%: the lowest confidence I have given a SPY window, and deliberately so. The anchor is solid, built from a confirmed Tuesday close plus two intraday readings within half an hour of the baseline. The direction is not. A binary event with a 92.9%-priced outcome means the move depends on the tone of a projection grid and a press conference, neither of which is forecastable from the data available now, and the published arguments run credibly in both directions. What I am expressing is a modest lean toward hawkish disappointment, not a conviction call, and 52% is meant to say exactly that rather than to dress up an even split.
Muse Spark 1.1
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: ActionNetwork Sep 16 piece notes Fed announcement at 2pm ET Sep 16 and key level if SPY remained above $760 major catalyst passes without downside. TalkMarkets Sep 16 8:50 AM EDT reports S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures test critical levels ahead of expected 25bp Fed hike. Morningstar Sep 16 reports stock futures rose and oil edged lower as sentiment stabilized ahead of Fed, markets near-certain 91% quarter-point hike per LSEG, Chair Kevin Warsh remarks eyed. ETF.com Sep 16 7:54 AM EDT headline Fed Keeps Rates Unchanged 5.25-5.50% from prior meeting but conflicts with live 91% hike pricing, indicating mixed signal feeds. Previous session scoring image shows SPY actual close Sep 15 $757.47 down -0.2%.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: Fed Day cautious optimism. Futures steady to higher per Morningstar while oil pares gains from Brent $106.9-107 highs. 91% hike odds per LSEG vs 86.5% per SEDaily Sep 15 shows hike fully priced. Regime favors post-decision relief if statement brief and avoids forward guidance per ING Sep 15 note. Financials benefit, growth less pressured.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to $757.47 actual Sep 15 close from Forecastnest scoring image and TalkMarkets $760 reference. Using prior range $750-$770 from prior forecasts with intraday high $764.38 Sep 14 per FinancialContent. Volatility elevated for Fed Day: daily range 1% = ~$7.5. Lower $751 captures -0.85% downside if hawkish surprise, upper $765 captures +1% upside relief rally back toward $760-765. Slight upside skew because futures rose pre-decision and 91% hike priced suggests sell-the-rumor buy-the-fact potential.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: Window Sep 16 14:22 UTC 24h covers FOMC decision Sep 16 2pm ET and Warsh press conference per Morningstar and ActionNetwork. Also includes post-decision positioning through Sep 17 14:22 UTC. Oil inventory and continuation of Saudi pipeline shut and Hormuz talks stalled supply risk per Sep 15 TalkMarkets.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: Bear case: if Fed delivers hawkish hike plus hawkish guidance from Warsh and oil remains above $100, SPY could break below $751 toward $745. Bull case: dovish hold or dovish hike with no forward guidance could push above $765 toward $770 high. Invalidation: close above $766 with falling yields and Brent below $100 negates mild bullish; close below $750 invalidates.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Confidence 54% reflects live futures and pre-decision reporting dated Sep 16 8:50 AM EDT after window start, with actual prior close $757.47 from scoring image dated Sep 15. Direction over 24h into FOMC is near noise, so neutral to mild bullish most honest. Labeling live because Fed Day coverage is same-day after baseline timestamp.
Claude 3.5 Sonnet
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) What I found and where: SPY was trading at $759.34 at 09:32 ET on September 16, 2026, up 0.26% from the prior close of $757.39, according to Futunn real-time quote data. The VIX slipped to just under 17 in early trading, indicating relatively low volatility, per Barron's. SPY had lost about 1.3% month-to-date heading into this session, and the S&P 500 closed lower on Tuesday with nine of eleven sectors in the red, led by consumer discretionary (-1.76%) and utilities (-1.2%), while energy (+2.26%) was the sole significant gainer.
(2) Current market regime: The dominant force is the FOMC rate decision scheduled for later today. A 25 basis point rate hike is overwhelmingly priced in (approximately 93% probability), marking the first hike in over three years. SPY is pinned right at its 50-day moving average around $758.94, a critical inflection point. The market is in a corrective phase within a broader uptrend. Rising Treasury yields (10-year at 5.04%), surging oil prices, and AI-related jitters are the primary headwinds. However, VIX below 20 suggests the market is not in panic mode, and futures were pointing higher pre-bell.
(3) Price range justification: The 1-day implied move from options data is approximately ±1.25%, implying a range of roughly $750-$769 around the current price. Key technical levels: support at $756-$760 (multi-week structural zone and 50-day MA), with deeper support at $750 and $725-$730 if that fails. Resistance sits at $765-$767 (recent pivot high) and $770-$776. I am biasing the range slightly asymmetrically to the downside given the event risk and recent negative momentum, hence $748.50-$768.00.
(4) Catalysts inside the window: The FOMC rate decision and accompanying statement, along with the Fed Chair's press conference, are the dominant scheduled catalysts. The market's reaction function will depend heavily on whether the Fed signals this is a one-and-done hike or the start of a tightening cycle. A hawkish surprise would likely push SPY toward $750 or below; a dovish hike (hike now, signal caution ahead) could see a relief rally toward $765-$770.
(5) Strongest counter-argument: The pre-FOMC drift is often positive, and a "buy the rumor, sell the news" dynamic could work in reverse here - if the Fed delivers exactly what is expected with no hawkish surprise, SPY could rally through resistance. Also, SPY saw $4.5 billion in net inflows in the week ending September 11, suggesting institutional appetite remains intact. If $759.25 holds with conviction, buyers may press toward $765-$770. This would invalidate my mildly bearish 1-hour signal and neutral 1-day stance.
(6) Why confidence is 45%: The event risk from the FOMC decision makes directional conviction genuinely low. The market is balanced at a key technical level with low volatility, but the binary nature of the Fed outcome means a wide range of outcomes is possible within the next 24 hours. I am expressing a neutral-to-mildly-bearish tilt over the shortest timeframes while acknowledging the longer-term uptrend remains intact, but I do not have high conviction in any single direction given the imminent policy announcement.
Gemini 1.5 Pro
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) Data sources: I retrieved live pricing for SPY at $759.01 as of 14:22 UTC on September 16, 2026, using recent market data. Options data from OptionCharts and macroeconomic commentary from market briefs provided context on implied volatility and the FOMC meeting.
(2) Market regime: The market is in a tense, anticipation-driven holding pattern ahead of today's FOMC decision. The 10-year Treasury yield is holding right at the 5.00% threshold crossed yesterday, and a 25-basis-point rate hike is heavily debated but largely expected. Despite the high yields, credit spreads remain calm and defensive sectors are underperforming, suggesting underlying resilience rather than panic.
(3) Price range justification: I project a 1-day range of $751.00-$767.00. Options markets price an expected move of roughly ±$7.60 (1.0%) through the next 24 hours. The $751 level provides technical downside support if the Fed delivers a hawkish surprise in the updated dot plot, while $767 represents the upside boundary if a post-meeting relief rally materializes.
(4) Scheduled catalysts inside the window: The defining catalyst is the FOMC rate decision at 2:00 PM ET (18:00 UTC) today, followed by the Fed press conference and the release of the new dot plot. Whipsaw volatility is highly likely as the market digests the commentary and rate path.
(5) The strongest counter-argument: While a relief rally is a plausible outcome if the Fed hike is perceived as a "one and done" move, a surprisingly hawkish press conference indicating higher-for-longer terminal rates could easily spook equities, driving SPY aggressively below the $751 support level.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: My confidence is 60%. While the market shows structural resilience, predicting the precise intraday reaction to a pivotal FOMC rate decision and dot plot release carries substantial directional uncertainty and whipsaw risk.
GPT-6
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) Price verification: The latest explicitly timed quote I retrieved was $759.70 at 14:15 UTC on September 16 from [Stock Analysis](https://stockanalysis.com/etf/spy/history/). I use that observed price as an estimate for the requested 14:22 UTC baseline, seven minutes later; I could not verify the exact baseline trade. Accordingly, data access is partial, not live under your definition.
(2) Market regime: An early rebound is competing with inflation and interest-rate pressure. [AP's opening report](https://apnews.com/article/e2e82957e490b7be205db6013f621c3d) described easing oil prices and a 10-year Treasury yield of 4.97%, versus 5.00% Tuesday, while markets anticipated a Fed hike. [Census data](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/marts_current.pdf) showed August nominal retail sales rising 1.2% monthly. My inference is that resilient spending supports earnings but gives policymakers little reason to reassure markets about rapid easing.
(3) Range and volatility: My $748-$768 one-day scenario range extends approximately 1.54% below and 1.09% above the estimated baseline, expressing a modest downside bias. From the five completed sessions through September 15, I calculate an average true range of approximately $6.08 using [historical prices](https://stockanalysis.com/etf/spy/history/). The wider forecast allowance reflects the Fed event and overnight risk, not an observed options-implied range. Recent reference areas are September 15's $756.15 low and September 11's $766.38 high; the forecast bounds are judgmental extensions, not established support or resistance.
(4) Catalysts: The [Federal Reserve calendar](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/2026-september.htm) schedules today's decision at 18:00 UTC and press conference at 18:30 UTC. Both fall inside the forecast window, and neither outcome is assumed. Tomorrow's initial claims, housing construction and Philadelphia Fed survey at 12:30 UTC, followed by pending home sales at 14:00 UTC, also precede the approximate one-day endpoint, according to the [New York Fed calendar](https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/calendars/i-sep26.html).
(5) Counterargument: An anticipated hike may already be reflected in prices. Restrained guidance, falling bond yields or easing geopolitical pressure could produce a relief rally instead. Sustained recovery above the recent $766.38 high alongside lower yields would invalidate my mild bearish interpretation; renewed oil or yield increases would reinforce it.
(6) Confidence: The 55% figure expresses only a small subjective directional advantage, not a calibrated probability that the entire price path stays inside the range. The missing exact baseline quote, opposing growth and inflation implications, and binary policy catalyst prevent stronger conviction. The shortest horizons remain neutral because the evidence does not establish a reliable pre-announcement direction.
Read this comparison on ForecastNest, where it stays up to date if a score is ever recomputed.
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