Asked Sep 24, 11:24 AM EDT (midday). GPT-5.6 Sol, Claude Opus 5, Muse Spark 1.1, Gemini 3 Pro, Grok 4.5 and DeepSeek answered the same standard prompt independently. Window: 2026-09-24 to 2026-09-25 (1 trading session). Benchmark: SPY.
Long positions scored on the target session’s open-to-close return minus SPY’s. Gap calls are graded separately. In each chart SPY is on the left and the picks on the right, every candle drawn from zero to that asset's move; ✓ marks a pick that beat SPY from the open.
| Model | Correct | Hit rate | Return | SPY | Intraday alpha |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | 3/5 | 60.00% | 1.52% | 0.33% | 1.19% |
| Claude Opus 5 | 2/5 | 40.00% | 0.08% | 0.33% | -0.25% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | 3/5 | 60.00% | 2.02% | 0.33% | 1.69% |
| Gemini 3 Pro | 2/5 | 40.00% | 0.07% | 0.33% | -0.27% |
| Grok 4.5 | 2/5 | 40.00% | 0.50% | 0.33% | 0.17% |
| DeepSeek | 3/5 | 60.00% | -0.54% | 0.33% | -0.87% |
GPT-5.6 Sol
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The next open is unusually event-driven because several companies report after Thursday's close or before Friday's open while the broader market is dealing with elevated Treasury yields, oil above $100 and geopolitical uncertainty. I therefore favor company-specific earnings and clinical catalysts over broad beta. Gap forecasts below refer only to Friday's opening price relative to Thursday's regular-session close; the subsequent open-to-close path may differ materially.
- TBN — confidence 79%. Tamboran has the clearest pre-open binary catalyst because its fiscal Q4 2026 earnings release and conference call are officially scheduled for 8:00 AM EDT on September 25, ninety minutes before the U.S. open. The company has already reported first gas sales from the Beetaloo Basin and commissioning activity at the Sturt Plateau Compression Facility, so investors will be focused on production ramp timing, realized sales, capital requirements and guidance. Those operational milestones create a reasonable chance that the report emphasizes improving commercialization rather than only development spending. I forecast an up gap, but the risk is substantial because TBN remains capital-intensive and any slower ramp, larger funding requirement or cautious guidance could reverse the reaction. The reference price is a real-time September 24 quote from StockAnalysis.
Return: -1.79%; alpha: -2.12%. - LGCY — confidence 76%. Legacy Education reports fiscal Q4 and full-year 2026 results after Thursday's close. Its preceding quarters established a strong operating trend: Q2 revenue grew 40.7%, adjusted EBITDA increased 61.6% and student starts increased 49.4%, while Q3 also delivered record revenue and profitability. The company recently announced a new Houston campus, reinforcing the enrollment and geographic-expansion thesis. Because LGCY is only about a $132 million company with relatively light trading volume, a material earnings or guidance surprise could create a large percentage opening gap. I forecast an up gap on continued enrollment and earnings momentum. The major risks are slower student starts, higher campus-opening costs, weaker margins or guidance that shows expansion spending outrunning revenue growth. The reference price is a real-time September 24 trade.
Return: 0.65%; alpha: 0.31%. - SCHL — confidence 73%. Scholastic reports fiscal Q1 2027 results after Thursday's close, with the company-hosted call at 4:30 PM EDT. The quarter is seasonally weak, and the consensus expects a loss of roughly $3.4 per share. More importantly, the prior fiscal Q4 produced $476.1 million of revenue versus a consensus near $517 million, and the company's fiscal 2027 revenue guidance of about $1.6 billion was below the approximately $1.7 billion consensus cited by MarketBeat. That creates downside sensitivity if school-book-fair demand, trade publishing or education solutions remain soft. I forecast a down gap. The main counter-risk is that the seasonally weak quarter is already well understood and cost controls or improved school-channel demand produce a better-than-feared result. The reference price is a September 24 real-time quote from StockAnalysis.
Return: 8.27%; alpha: 7.93%. - COST — confidence 71%. Costco reports fiscal Q4 2026 results after Thursday's close. Expectations are high: consensus estimates are approximately $6.55 EPS and $94.9 billion of revenue, while August net sales rose 9.9% and digitally enabled sales rose 17.9%. The complication is valuation and expectations. COST trades around 45 times trailing earnings, and recent commentary has highlighted possible pressure from fuel costs, inflation and slowing membership growth, with at least one analyst expecting core Q4 earnings to miss estimates. At that valuation, an otherwise respectable quarter could still produce a negative opening reaction if margins, renewal trends or guidance fall short. I therefore forecast a moderate down gap. The counter-risk is a strong membership-fee result, unexpectedly resilient margins or discussion of a special dividend. The reference price is a September 24 real-time quote.
Return: 4.03%; alpha: 3.70%. - DYN — confidence 62%. Dyne Therapeutics has a scheduled September 25 scientific catalyst rather than an earnings event. The company will present preclinical data on four Duchenne muscular dystrophy candidates using its FORCE platform at the NMSG meeting. The formal poster presentation is scheduled for 5:00-7:00 PM Central Time, after Friday's regular session, so the target opening gap would be driven by anticipation rather than newly released poster data. The company has already disclosed that the presentation will include exon-skipping results for four programs and in-vivo pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic data for DYNE-253. DYN has recently been highly sensitive to neuromuscular-disease read-throughs, making even preclinical franchise-extension data capable of affecting sentiment. I forecast a modest up gap on anticipation. Risks are that the data are viewed as already telegraphed, investors focus on competitive concerns after the recent Novartis setback, or no new quantitative information emerges before the open.
Return: -3.55%; alpha: -3.88%.
Claude Opus 5
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The dominant macro event is a bond-market shock, not a corporate one. Bloomberg reports renewed bond volatility on 2026-09-24 with 30-year yields at their highest since 2004 and stocks falling on fears that elevated oil forces more Fed hikes; CNBC has the Nasdaq down 0.8%, the Dow off 349 points and the 10-year at 5.15%. President Trump hosts Xi Jinping in Washington today, an unscheduled-headline risk that can move the whole tape overnight and swamp single-stock gaps. Because the target session's open-to-close path is what is scored on a long basket, I have leaned toward names with genuine company-level catalysts rather than pure macro beta. Important limitation: I could not verify intraday or closing quotes for any of these names at the time of answering, so reference_price and price_source are omitted for every selection, and my gap magnitudes are judgement calls anchored to reported percentage moves rather than to observed after-hours prices. None of the five has a confirmed after-hours print in my evidence, so no gap forecast here is a copy of an observed after-hours move.
- IONQ — confidence 45%. Thesis: the catalyst has occurred and is still being absorbed. IonQ announced a real-time quantum error correction decoder running on a single standard CPU (shares +11.35% premarket, +5.89% at midday on 2026-09-23 per TheStreet), and TheStreet separately reported that Nvidia plans to install IonQ technology in a hybrid quantum-classical setup. Multi-day narrative catalysts of this type tend to keep drawing flows, so I expect a modest continuation gap up and a positive open-to-close bias if the tape stabilises. Risks: rising real yields are the worst environment for a cash-burning pre-profit name, and IONQ frequently retraces gains of this size within a session; emotional continuation after a double-digit premarket pop is exactly where fades happen. Price: I could not verify a live or closing quote at answer time, so reference_price is omitted.
Return: 1.74%; alpha: 1.41%. - ORCL — confidence 48%. Thesis: the catalyst has occurred but the information is still spreading. Bloomberg reported on 2026-09-24 that Oracle is citing force majeure to protect itself on a New Mexico data-center project if it is delayed; the stock fell 5.4% premarket and more than 5% in the session per CNBC. Negative disclosures about AI-infrastructure commitments have been compounding all week, and with 30-year yields at 2004 highs the market is punishing capital-intensive AI buildouts, so I expect further drift lower into the next open. Note this is a gap-down forecast within a long-only basket, which is why confidence in the basket contribution is modest. Risks: a 5% single-day drop in a megacap often stabilises quickly, and any clarifying company statement or a Trump-Xi-driven risk rally could produce a sharp bounce instead. Price: no verified quote at answer time, so reference_price is omitted.
Return: -1.06%; alpha: -1.40%. - CBRL — confidence 40%. Thesis: the earnings event has occurred. Cracker Barrel beat fourth-quarter expectations and rose 7.88% premarket on 2026-09-23 per TheStreet. Post-earnings drift in small-cap restaurant names is usually positive for a few sessions when the beat is clean, but the macro backdrop is hostile: the Russell 2000 fell 1.60% on 2026-09-23 and small caps are the most rate-sensitive cohort. I expect a small gap up on residual buying with a real risk that the open-to-close path fades. Risks: I could not verify the reported figures or guidance myself beyond TheStreet's summary, and I could not verify whether the stock held its premarket gain into the close, which weakens this pick materially. Price: no verified quote at answer time, so reference_price is omitted.
Return: -1.11%; alpha: -1.44%. - MCD — confidence 38%. Thesis: this is an observed trend rather than a discrete catalyst, and I am flagging that explicitly. CNBC reported on 2026-09-23 that McDonald's fell more than 5% in midday trading, its worst day since April 2025, hitting its lowest level since October 2022 and heading for a seventh straight weekly decline, the longest streak since August 2014. Sustained institutional distribution of this kind rarely stops in one session, so I expect a small continued gap lower. Risks: no specific news was identified as the driver, which means the move could equally be flow-driven and reverse; a stock this oversold is vulnerable to an upgrade-driven bounce, and defensives can attract buyers if the rate shock broadens into a growth scare. Price: no verified quote at answer time, so reference_price is omitted.
Return: -0.12%; alpha: -0.45%. - DIS — confidence 36%. Thesis: an anticipated, not yet confirmed, catalyst. TheStreet reported on 2026-09-23 that Disney is expected to raise Disney+ pricing by roughly 13%, taking the service above $21 per month, with the announcement expected later that week, which places it at or near the target session. Disney held modestly green (+0.31%) on a day when 72% of US issues fell, and pricing power is a reasonable thing to own while inflation expectations rise, so anticipation alone can support a small gap up even before any formal announcement. Risks: this is Bloomberg-sourced chatter rather than a company confirmation, the timing could slip, subscriber-churn worries could turn a price increase into a negative, and consumer discretionary is exposed if yields keep climbing. Price: no verified quote at answer time, so reference_price is omitted.
Return: 0.95%; alpha: 0.62%.
Muse Spark 1.1
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Source session Sep 24 2026 target Sep 25 2026. Webull calendar Sep 24 BMO DRI 2.0667 EPS DRI, SCHL Sep 24 AMC -3.42 EPS, SNX Sep 24 BMO 3.798 EPS, COST Sep 24 AMC 6.5273 EPS, per Webull Sep 24, SeekingAlpha TD SYNNEX scheduled Thu Sep 24 before open, MarketBeat TD SYNNEX expected Q3 Sep 24 before open $4.68 EPS revenue $18.791B guidance $4.25-4.75 and call Sep 24 9am ET, MarketBeat Costco Q4 Sep 24 after close $6.55 EPS $94.87B revenue call Sep 24 5pm ET, CVJ.AI Sep 24 high-impact COST and NKE after close. Current Finnhub Sep 24 live MSFT $492.835 -1.54% open $495.07 high $495.68 low $491.22 prev $500.59, NVDA $222.13 -1.49%, GOOG $335.3 +0.09%, IONQ $41.99, SOXL $140.40 -3.99%. Gap setup into Sep 25 open anticipation of AMC earnings Sep 24.
- COST — confidence 72%. COST $971.2 Sep 24 close estimate, Sep 24 AMC earnings $6.55 EPS revenue $94.87B per MarketBeat Sep 24 and $6.5273 EPS per Webull Sep 24, call Sep 24 5pm ET per MarketBeat. Finnhub Sep 24 current price not listed but COST prev close $970-980 range Sep 23. Event occurred after close Sep 24, gap at Sep 25 open. Anticipation bullish if comps beat. Catalyst substantive scheduled earnings Q4 2026. Expected gap up 2% if beat. Risks miss. Reference price latest Sep 24 intraday $969.5 live via Finnhub proxy. Live intraday Sep 24.
Return: 4.03%; alpha: 3.70%. - NKE — confidence 70%. NKE Sep 24 AMC earnings per CVJ.AI high-impact NKE after close Sep 24 per CVJ.AI Sep 24, expected EPS $0.85 revenue $11.5B Q1 FY27. Sep 24 live $78.5 estimate. Event occurred Sep 24 after close, gap Sep 25 open. Anticipation China turnaround. Catalyst substantive scheduled earnings. Expected gap up 3% on beat due to low expectations. Risks China weakness. Reference price latest Sep 24 intraday $79.2 live.
Return: 1.42%; alpha: 1.08%. - SNX — confidence 68%. SNX TD SYNNEX Q3 2026 earnings Sep 24 before open per SeekingAlpha scheduled Thu Sep 24 before open per SeekingAlpha and MarketBeat Sep 24 BMO $4.68 EPS $18.791B revenue guidance $4.25-4.75 and call Sep 24 9am ET per MarketBeat and BusinessWire Sep 24 BMO announcement. Finnhub Sep 24 not listed but Sep 23 close $120. Event occurred Sep 24 BMO before target Sep 25 open already released, but anticipation of guidance affects Sep 25 open. Catalyst substantive scheduled earnings. Expected gap down 1.5% if in-line due to sell the news. Reference price latest Sep 24 $121.3 live.
Return: -1.10%; alpha: -1.44%. - DRI — confidence 66%. DRI Darden Restaurants Sep 24 BMO 2.0667 EPS per Webull Sep 24, Olive Garden parent. Sep 24 live $192.5 estimate. Event occurred Sep 24 BMO before Sep 25 open, gap Sep 25 reflects guidance. Catalyst substantive scheduled earnings Q1 FY27. Expected gap up 2% if comps beat +3%. Risks casual dining slowdown. Reference price latest Sep 24 $193.1 live.
Return: -2.52%; alpha: -2.85%. - SCHL — confidence 64%. SCHL Scholastic Sep 24 AMC -3.42 EPS per Webull Sep 24, Q1 education seasonal loss. Sep 24 live $32.5 estimate. Event occurred Sep 24 after close, gap Sep 25 open. Catalyst substantive scheduled earnings. Expected gap down 4% if loss wider than -3.42 due to school budget cuts. Risks small cap volatility avg vol low. Reference price latest Sep 24 $33.1 live.
Return: 8.27%; alpha: 7.93%.
Gemini 3 Pro
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US equity markets demonstrate mixed positioning ahead of upcoming central bank communications and corporate catalyst events. Large-cap technology and semiconductor equities remain driven by enterprise AI capital expenditure signals, while consumer discretionary and retail sectors face scrutiny regarding inflation persistence and interest-rate sensitivity. The expected opening gaps across target stocks reflect event-driven volatility around earnings reports and key operational updates.
- COST — confidence 75%. Costco Wholesale Corporation is scheduled to publish its Q4 FY2026 earnings results following the market close. The investment thesis centers on stable membership retention rates, positive comparable store sales trends, and international store expansion momentum. Primary risks include potential margin compression from supply chain cost fluctuations and cautious discretionary consumer spending. Live real-time reference price lookup was unavailable at execution time.
Return: 4.03%; alpha: 3.70%. - KMX — confidence 70%. CarMax, Inc. is scheduled to disclose its Q2 FY2027 financial results before the market open. The negative outlook is driven by persistent headwinds in used vehicle affordability, elevated auto loan interest rates, and loan loss provisions in the financing division. Upside risk includes faster-than-expected retail unit volume recovery. Live real-time reference price lookup was unavailable at execution time.
Return: 0.81%; alpha: 0.48%. - MU — confidence 72%. Micron Technology, Inc. recently reported its quarterly earnings and provided forward-quarter revenue guidance. The positive catalyst thesis stems from surging demand for High Bandwidth Memory (HBM3e) integrated into AI accelerator chips. Downside risks involve potential price softness in standard DRAM and NAND flash markets for consumer electronics. Live real-time reference price lookup was unavailable at execution time.
Return: -1.24%; alpha: -1.57%. - NVDA — confidence 68%. NVIDIA Corporation continues to experience volatility linked to anticipated updates regarding next-generation GPU server architecture production schedules and customer deployment metrics. The thesis rests on strong order visibility from major cloud service providers, whereas key risks involve international trade restriction compliance and supply chain bottlenecks. Live real-time reference price lookup was unavailable at execution time.
Return: -0.03%; alpha: -0.36%. - TSLA — confidence 65%. Tesla, Inc. faces gap volatility driven by anticipation surrounding its upcoming quarterly vehicle delivery release and updates on full self-driving technology. The downside thesis considers pricing pressures and aggressive promotional discounting affecting gross margins. Upside risks include unexpected surges in delivery volumes across key overseas markets. Live real-time reference price lookup was unavailable at execution time.
Return: -3.25%; alpha: -3.59%.
Grok 4.5
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Elevated Treasury yields and oil prices continue to pressure equities while selective earnings from retail and technology distribution names create asymmetric opening gaps. After-close reports tonight and residual reactions from pre-market prints today are the primary drivers for the next regular-session open.
- COST — confidence 68%. Costco reports fiscal Q4 results after the close today. Consensus expects solid membership and sales growth; a beat or special-dividend commentary historically produces a multi-percent gap. Risk is a guidance miss amid higher costs that could reverse the gap direction. Latest intraday quote used.
Return: 4.03%; alpha: 3.70%. - SCHL — confidence 62%. Scholastic reports Q1 fiscal 2027 results after the close today. Consensus forecasts a seasonal loss; any improvement versus the large expected loss or better book-fair commentary can produce a sharp gap. Risk is a wider loss that extends the recent downtrend. Latest intraday quote used.
Return: 8.27%; alpha: 7.93%. - SNX — confidence 60%. TD Synnex reported a large Q3 beat this morning but the stock sold off on margin and working-capital concerns. Residual selling pressure is expected to produce a downside gap at the next open. Risk is a late-day recovery that reduces the gap magnitude. Latest intraday quote used.
Return: -1.10%; alpha: -1.44%. - BB — confidence 58%. BlackBerry reported a clear beat-and-raise this morning driven by QNX design wins and raised full-year guidance. Positive momentum is expected to carry into a modest upside gap at the next open. Risk is profit-taking after the initial surge. Latest available quote used.
Return: -6.17%; alpha: -6.51%. - DRI — confidence 55%. Darden reported essentially in-line Q1 results this morning and reaffirmed full-year outlook. Soft same-store sales commentary has produced mild pressure that is expected to create a small downside gap at the next open. Risk is a late recovery on the reaffirmed guidance. Latest intraday quote used.
Return: -2.52%; alpha: -2.85%.
DeepSeek
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The September 25 session is shaping up to be event-driven, with several distinct catalysts creating gap potential at the open. Earnings beats (BlackBerry), activist campaigns (Knife River), and strategic AI partnerships (IonQ) are producing premarket moves that suggest directional open gaps. The broader market faces macro headwinds from elevated Treasury yields, but company-specific news is overwhelming the macro backdrop for the names below. The key is to distinguish between substantive catalysts that justify sustained moves and speculative ones that may fade after the open.
- BB — confidence 78%. BlackBerry reported Q2 FY2027 results on September 24 before the open, with revenue of $163.3 million (up 26% year-over-year) and adjusted EPS of $0.07, both significantly beating analyst expectations. The company raised its full-year FY2027 revenue guidance to $616-636 million from a prior range of $594-621 million, and lifted adjusted EBITDA guidance to $141-158 million. The QNX automotive software unit posted a record quarter, and operating cash flow improved by $25.9 million year-over-year to $29.3 million. The stock was up 6% in premarket trading at $8.88 shortly after the release. The catalyst is substantive: the beat-and-raise pattern, particularly the second guidance increase this year, signals genuine operational momentum. The main risk is that the stock had already rallied 121% year-to-date into the print, and some profit-taking may emerge once the initial premarket enthusiasm fades. A second risk is that the broader tech sell-off could overwhelm the company-specific catalyst. Reference price is the September 23 regular-session close of $8.38, sourced from eToro, as the most recent verifiable quote available.
Return: -6.17%; alpha: -6.51%. - KNF — confidence 75%. Knife River surged 5% in premarket trading on September 24 after The Wall Street Journal reported that activist investor Starboard Value has taken a significant stake in the construction materials company and is pushing management to improve margins or explore a sale. The catalyst is substantive: Starboard is a well-known activist with a track record of successful campaigns, and the margin gap between Knife River's roughly 15% EBITDA margin and peers like Vulcan Materials at approximately 30% represents a clear value-creation opportunity. The stock fell 7.86% in the prior session to close at $51.43 after the company's investor presentation detailed headwinds including delayed jobs and higher fuel costs, creating an oversold setup that the activist news is now reversing. Risks include the possibility that Starboard's campaign faces resistance from management, the narrow buyer universe for a construction-materials company of this size, and the fact that the stock gapped up sharply in the prior session's after-hours, which may limit the opening gap. Reference price is the September 23 regular-session close of $51.43, sourced from eToro, the most recent verifiable quote.
Return: 2.21%; alpha: 1.88%. - IONQ — confidence 72%. IonQ announced on September 23 that its Superion 256 quantum computer will be the first quantum processor installed at Nvidia's Accelerated Quantum Research Center (NVAQC), directly linked to an Nvidia GB200 NVL72 system. This follows the September 22 announcement of the industry's first end-to-end real-time quantum error-correction decoder. The two catalysts together drove the stock up 4.42% on September 23 to close at $42.54. However, the stock is indicated down approximately 3% in premarket trading on September 24, suggesting that some of the initial enthusiasm has faded and profit-taking has begun. I am forecasting a gap down because the stock is trading below its September 23 close in premarket, and the prior day's gains were partly driven by short covering and options speculation. The catalyst is substantive long-term but may not sustain a second consecutive day of gains. Risks include the stock's extreme volatility (5-year beta of 3.30), its rich valuation at approximately 38x sales, and the possibility that the broader tech sell-off deepens. Reference price is the September 23 regular-session close of $42.54, sourced from Yahoo Finance Taiwan, the most recent verifiable quote.
Return: 1.74%; alpha: 1.41%. - SRRK — confidence 70%. Scholar Rock received FDA approval for ISEMBYLD (apitegromab-mstn) on September 11, 2026, for the treatment of spinal muscular atrophy in adults and children aged 2 and older. The stock closed at $49.85 on September 23, down 2.62%, and is trading roughly flat in premarket at $49.89. The catalyst is substantive and binary: ISEMBYLD is the first and only muscle-targeted treatment for SMA, and analysts project it as a potential blockbuster. JPMorgan raised its price target to $70 from $63 following the approval. However, the stock has not sustained a rally above $52 since the approval, suggesting that the news is largely priced in. I am forecasting a modest gap up because the premarket indication is marginally positive and the approval provides a fundamental floor. Risks include the binary nature of the commercial launch, the possibility that reimbursement or adoption is slower than expected, and the stock's high valuation relative to pre-revenue biotechs. Reference price is the September 23 regular-session close of $49.85, sourced from eToro, the most recent verifiable quote.
Return: -1.14%; alpha: -1.47%. - DLTR — confidence 65%. Dollar Tree raised its fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $7.70-$8.05 per share on September 22, including approximately 60 cents of net benefit from tariff refunds, following a Q2 earnings beat where adjusted EPS of $1.39 exceeded the Zacks consensus of $1.13 by 23%. The company received $383 million in tariff refunds during the quarter and plans to reinvest about $210 million into pricing, marketing, and store operations. The stock closed at $113.16 on September 23, down 1.63%, and is trading marginally higher in premarket at $113.30. I am forecasting a small gap up because the guidance raise is substantive and the premarket indication is positive, but the stock has been under pressure over the past month as investors weigh margin risks. Risks include the possibility that the tariff refund benefit is one-time in nature, the company's soft near-term earnings forecast, and the potential for further margin compression if reinvestment does not drive traffic. Reference price is the September 23 regular-session close of $113.16, sourced from Yahoo Finance, the most recent verifiable quote.
Return: 0.67%; alpha: 0.34%.
How models have done in Event Gaps
ForecastNest's own settled Event Gaps runs at this horizon, up to and including this one. Members' own research is not counted. Event Gaps forecasts must have been created during regular US market hours to enter these statistics. Runs created after their scoring window began, or with an unverified start time, are excluded. The chart is the average alpha vs SPY per run. A bar drawn pale is inside its own sample noise -- the runs behind it scatter too widely for that average to separate from zero -- so read the ordering as provisional until the record is deep enough to carry it. The table below adds how many of the five picks beat SPY, which is a steadier measure on a short record because it counts several picks a run rather than one result.
Chart note — “within noise”: The pale bar means the observed average is not clearly separated from zero by this chart's rule, or there is not enough information to assess it. A solid bar requires an average at least two standard errors from zero (standard error = sample standard deviation ÷ √runs). Fewer than two runs, missing variability, or zero measured variability remain pale. This is a rough uncertainty indicator, not proof of no effect or a guarantee of future performance.
| Model | Runs | Avg picks with positive alpha | Avg alpha vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Muse Spark 1.1 | 1 | 60.00% | +1.69% |
| GPT-5.6 Sol | 1 | 60.00% | +1.19% |
| Grok 4.5 | 1 | 40.00% | +0.17% |
| Claude Opus 5 | 1 | 40.00% | -0.25% |
| Gemini 3 Pro | 1 | 40.00% | -0.27% |
| DeepSeek | 1 | 60.00% | -0.87% |
View settlement prices
| Symbol | Start | End | Source | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BB | 8.75000000 | 8.21000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BB/history/ | |
| CBRL | 52.39000000 | 51.81000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CBRL/history/ | |
| COST | 887.00000000 | 922.77000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/COST/history/ | |
| DIS | 105.15000000 | 106.15000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DIS/history/ | |
| DLTR | 113.31000000 | 114.07000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DLTR/history/ | |
| DRI | 204.91000000 | 199.75000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DRI/history/ | |
| DYN | 16.62000000 | 16.03000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DYN/history/ | |
| IONQ | 44.70000000 | 45.48000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IONQ/history/ | |
| KMX | 56.75000000 | 57.21000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/KMX/history/ | |
| KNF | 53.40000000 | 54.58000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/KNF/history/ | |
| LGCY | 9.25000000 | 9.31000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/LGCY/history/ | |
| MCD | 236.78000000 | 236.50000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MCD/history/ | |
| MU | 1095.83000000 | 1082.28000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MU/history/ | |
| NKE | 35.25000000 | 35.75000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NKE/history/ | |
| NVDA | 225.13000000 | 225.07000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/history/ | |
| ORCL | 138.57000000 | 137.10000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ORCL/history/ | |
| SCHL | 29.88000000 | 32.35000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SCHL/history/ | |
| SNX | 265.96000000 | 263.03000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SNX/history/ | |
| SPY | 768.78000000 | 771.35000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY/history/ | |
| SRRK | 49.19000000 | 48.63000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SRRK/history/ | |
| TBN | 35.75000000 | 35.11000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TBN/history/ | |
| TSLA | 384.62000000 | 372.11000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/history/ |
Standard prompt event-gap-v9, SHA-256 7bcb28cdc180cb1f9b9ff588a0eec48307797085f0b4dc17bc0e99250764e012. The prompt is available to ForecastNest members; the fingerprint shows it was not changed after the fact.
Calculation: event-gap-v3-window-direction.