Asked Sep 24, 11:17 AM EDT (midday). GPT-5.6 Sol, Claude Opus 5, Muse Spark 1.1, Gemini 1.5 Pro, Grok 4.5 and DeepSeek answered the same standard prompt independently. Window: from Sep 24, 11:17 AM EDT to Sep 25, 11:17 AM EDT, the same time one session later. Benchmark: SPY.
Five direction-adjusted close-to-close returns; a down call reverses the sign. The score is the mean signed return, without subtracting the benchmark. In each chart SPY is on the left and the picks on the right, every candle drawn from zero to that asset's move; ✓ marks a pick that moved the way it was called.
| Model | Correct | Hit rate | Return | SPY | Directional return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | 1/5 | 20.00% | -26.34% | 0.67% | -26.34% |
| Claude Opus 5 | 3/5 | 60.00% | 0.47% | 0.67% | 0.47% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | 4/5 | 80.00% | 2.73% | 0.67% | 2.73% |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | 4/5 | 80.00% | 0.93% | 0.67% | 0.93% |
| Grok 4.5 | 4/5 | 80.00% | 0.63% | 0.67% | 0.63% |
| DeepSeek | 2/5 | 40.00% | -6.36% | 0.67% | -6.36% |
GPT-5.6 Sol
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The September 23 extreme-mover list was dominated by low-float and micro-cap dislocations rather than broad fundamental repricing. Several of the largest gainers were already reversing sharply during the September 24 session, while Jaguar Health was extending a collapse that followed an extraordinary prior-day speculative spike. I therefore favor reversal of the most weakly supported September 23 gains and continuation of JAGX's post-spike unwind. All five source-session closing prices were above $1, so none fails the experiment's exclusion rule even where market capitalization is below $1 billion.
- BENF down — confidence 86%. Beneficient rose 438.73% on September 23 after announcing a proposed strategy to eliminate approximately $130 million of contested HCLP debt, exchange former CEO-related preferred equity with about $850 million of liquidation preference for 162,132 Class A shares, and extinguish roughly $88 million of additional obligations. The catalyst is economically substantive because successful completion could remove major debt, governance and dilution overhangs, but it remains contingent on a consensual resolution rather than a completed transaction. The magnitude of the source-session move appears to have priced in substantial execution success immediately. By September 24 the stock was already reversing sharply; StockAnalysis showed a latest accessible intraday price of $1.38 and market capitalization of approximately $21.33 million. I therefore classify this as reversal with direction down. The principal risk is that Beneficient announces a definitive agreement materially resembling the proposed restructuring, which could reignite the repricing. Source-session catalyst: https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/09/23/3367391/0/en/beneficient-announces-strategy-to-eliminate-hclp-debt-and-heppner-equity-interests.html. Source-session price verification: https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/benf/history/.
Return: 33.59%; alpha: -34.26%. - WHLR down — confidence 84%. Wheeler REIT gained 190.91% on September 23, closing at $5.44 after trading as high as $8.71. I found no comparably large same-day fundamental catalyst. The closest verified corporate action was a one-for-nine reverse stock split effective September 21 plus associated charter amendments; StockSetups characterized the September 23 move as having low-float, technical gap-and-go characteristics rather than a clearly identified value-changing announcement. That makes the source-session rise predominantly speculative. By September 24 StockAnalysis showed WHLR around $3.10, already reversing more than 40%, with a current market capitalization around $265,930. Because the September 23 close was above $1, the experiment's exclusion rule does not remove it despite the tiny market cap. I expect continued normalization and classify the source-session gain as reversal with direction down. The principal risk is another low-float squeeze in which limited share availability overwhelms fundamentals. Source-session verification: https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/whlr/history/. Corporate-action filing: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1527541/000152754126000349/0001527541-26-000349-index.html.
Return: 48.09%; alpha: -48.76%. - ARTL down — confidence 80%. Artelo Biosciences rose 76.14% on September 23 after reporting additional nonclinical obesity findings for ART27.13 and filing a provisional patent application. In obese mice, ART27.13 produced about 20% weight loss as monotherapy and approximately 40% in combination with semaglutide, with additional reported effects on glucose tolerance and bone mineral density. The underlying scientific catalyst is substantive enough to justify reassessment of the program, but it remains preclinical obesity evidence rather than human efficacy data, making the magnitude of the one-session stock reaction highly speculative. By September 24 StockAnalysis showed ARTL near $4.81, down roughly one-third intraday, with market capitalization around $2.63 million. I therefore expect reversal relative to the September 23 gain and direction down. The main risk is renewed speculative buying around the obesity program or additional development guidance that accelerates a human obesity trial. Source-session catalyst: https://ir.artelobio.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/203/artelo-biosciences-files-new-provisional-patent-application. Source-session price verification: https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/artl/history/.
Return: -1.07%; alpha: 0.39%. - JAGX down — confidence 77%. Jaguar Health fell 74.14% on September 23, closing at $8.91 after an extraordinary September 22 surge that had taken the stock to $34.46. The preceding rally was initially associated with an FDA fiscal-year 2027 Prescription Drug User Fee Act waiver for Mytesi, which is a substantive regulatory-cost benefit, but the scale of the move was amplified by an extremely small post-reverse-split float. Benzinga attributed the September 23 collapse primarily to profit-taking and low-float volatility. The stock continued lower on September 24; StockAnalysis showed a latest accessible price near $7.00 and market capitalization around $2.41 million. Because the source-session move was negative, a continuation thesis requires direction down, which is my call. The main counter-risk is an oversold low-float rebound after two sessions of extreme selling or a new Mytesi regulatory/commercial announcement. Source-session price verification: https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/jagx/history/. Catalyst context: https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/movers/26/09/61948244/jaguar-health-stock-plunges-wednesday-whats-happening.
Return: 17.54%; alpha: -18.21%. - IPDN down — confidence 74%. Professional Diversity Network gained 38.97% on September 23 after already rising 16.07% on September 22. The recent move followed a one-for-30 reverse split effective September 14 and appears dominated by low-float momentum rather than a fresh September 23 operating catalyst. The company's latest identifiable business announcements predated the surge, including an August launch of PDN Intelligence and an August public offering, while contemporaneous market commentary described extreme post-split volatility and speculative momentum. By September 24 StockAnalysis showed IPDN near $3.60, down about one-third intraday, with market capitalization around $1.73 million. I therefore classify the September 23 gain as a reversal and direction down. The main risk is another low-float momentum squeeze; September 23 volume exceeded 25 million shares despite the company's very small share count. Source-session price verification: https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/ipdn/history/. Corporate-news chronology: https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/PROFESSIONAL-DIVERSITY-NE-41645712/news-press-releases/.
Return: 33.52%; alpha: -34.20%.
Claude Opus 5
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Source session is Wednesday 2026-09-23, a broad rate-driven decline: TheStreet reports over 72% of US issues fell as the 5-year Treasury yield crossed 5% for the first time since 2007 on strong PMI data, with the Russell 2000 (-1.60%) and Nasdaq (-1.11%) hardest hit and energy the only advancing S&P 500 sector. On Thursday 2026-09-24 the pressure has intensified: Bloomberg reports renewed bond volatility with 30-year yields at their highest since 2004, and CNBC has the Nasdaq down 0.8% and the Dow off 349 points, with Oracle down more than 5% after citing force majeure on a New Mexico data center. Oil fell Thursday, which may eventually relieve the inflation impulse, but the market is trading the yield move first. That favors continuation in rate-insensitive defensives and idiosyncratic winners, and fades in speculative small caps. Data caveats: TheStreet's percentages are midday prints rather than verified closes, and I could not retrieve live quotes or verified market caps for any pick, so reference_price and market_cap_usd are omitted throughout.
- IONQ up — confidence 50%. Catalyst (substantive): TheStreet lists IonQ up 5.89% at midday on September 23, the second-largest gainer, after the company announced development and testing of a real-time quantum error correction decoder running on a single standard CPU (shares were up 11.35% premarket). TheStreet separately published that Nvidia plans to install IonQ technology in a quantum-classical hybrid setup, which is a durable, multi-day narrative and the kind of validation that draws continued flows. Risks: rising real yields are the worst backdrop for a cash-burning pre-profit story, and IONQ has repeatedly given back single-session gains of this size. The 5.89% is a midday figure, not a verified close; price and market cap unverified.
Return: 5.98%; alpha: 5.30%. - MCD down — confidence 48%. Catalyst (substantive): CNBC reported McDonald's down more than 5% in midday trading on September 23, on pace for its worst day since April 2025 and its lowest level since October 2022, extending what would be a seventh straight weekly decline, the longest losing streak since August 2014. Persistent multi-week distribution in a megacap defensive rarely reverses in one session, and consumer-spending worries are being compounded by higher rates. Risks: a stock this oversold can bounce hard on any upgrade or traffic datapoint, and defensives can catch a bid if the equity selloff broadens. The roughly -5% is a midday figure described qualitatively by CNBC, not a verified close; price and market cap unverified.
Return: -1.84%; alpha: 1.17%. - SECZ down — confidence 40%. Catalyst (speculative): TheStreet's midday movers list is anchored by Securitize Corp at +13.03%, the day's largest gainer, but the blog names no company-specific catalyst. A double-digit move in a recently public, crypto-infrastructure-linked name without an identified driver typically mean-reverts, especially with 30-year yields at 2004 highs and risk appetite deteriorating further today. Risks: if a real catalyst (a partnership, index inclusion or tokenization mandate) drove the move, momentum could extend; low float names can squeeze. The 13.03% is a midday figure, the catalyst is unconfirmed, and price and market cap are unverified.
Return: -0.85%; alpha: 0.18%. - AAON down — confidence 38%. Catalyst (unidentified): TheStreet lists AAON up 5.49% at midday on September 23, third on the winners list, with no stated driver; the HVAC maker is often traded as a data-center cooling proxy. Two things argue for a fade: the move is unexplained, and Oracle's force majeure notice on a New Mexico data center today directly undercuts the data-center construction narrative while yields at 2004 highs pressure mid-cap industrials. Risks: if the gain reflected a contract or upgrade, it can extend; AAON has genuine backlog exposure that a single Oracle project does not define. The 5.49% is a midday figure; catalyst, price and market cap unverified.
Return: 6.27%; alpha: -6.95%. - DIS up — confidence 35%. Catalyst (substantive but small): TheStreet reports Disney up 0.31% at midday on September 23 amid Bloomberg-sourced chatter that it will raise Disney+ pricing by about 13% later this week, taking the service above $21 per month. Pricing power is a rational thing to own when inflation expectations are rising, and an actual announcement inside the window would be a fresh catalyst; Disney also held green on a day when 72% of issues fell, a relative-strength signal. Risks: this is a small move that barely qualifies as a mover, subscriber-churn concerns could turn the price hike into a negative, and consumer discretionary is exposed if the rate shock continues. The 0.31% is a midday figure; price and market cap unverified.
Return: -0.07%; alpha: -0.74%.
Muse Spark 1.1
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Sep 24 2026 15:17 UTC window to Sep 25 15:17. Finnhub live Sep 24: MSFT $492.835 open $495.07 high $495.68 low $491.22 prev $500.59 -1.54%, NVDA $222.1325 open $222.08 high $223.2299 low $221.09 prev $225.51 -1.49%, GOOG $335.3 open $333 high $336.27 low $332.81 prev $334.98 +0.09%, IONQ $41.99 open $41.57 high $43.43 low $41.28 prev $42.54 -1.30% but 5D +13.98%, SOXL $140.4033 open $138.47 high $143.475 low $136.9 prev $146.25 -3.99% 6M +155% YTD +234%. Top gainers >100B Sep 23 per TradingKey NASDAQ -1.13% SPX -0.75% Dow -0.68% Sep 23 10pm, monthly leaders Sep 2026 MGRT +2969% SNDK +2367% AXTI +1927% NUAI +1347% ERAS +905% per StockTitan. Source session Sep 23 previous_change_percent: GOOG -3.41% open $346.3 high $346.33 low $334.2 prev $347.41 per Finnhub Sep 23, NVDA -1.54% open $228.03 high $228.95 low $224.02 prev $228.87 per Finnhub Sep 23, MSFT +0.51% open $500.755 high $509.44 low $495.88 prev $498 per Finnhub Sep 23, IONQ +5.83% open $45.84 high $46.05 low $41.63 prev $40.74 per Finnhub Sep 23, SOXL -4.44% open $149.89 high $151 low $139.58 prev $151.95 per Finnhub Sep 23.
- GOOG up — confidence 70%. GOOG Sep 23 previous_change_percent -3.41% per Finnhub Sep 23 current $335.55 open $346.3 high $346.33 low $334.2 prev $347.41 change -11.86, Sep 24 live $335.3 open $333 high $336.27 low $332.81 prev $334.98 +0.09% Finnhub Sep 24, bounce from $334.2 low +0.3% to $335.3. Catalyst substantive AI search and decoder partnership NVIDIA GB200. Hypothesis reversal up from -3.41% fall to bounce. Direction up reversal. Reference latest Sep 24 intraday live.
Return: 1.92%; alpha: 1.25%. - NVDA up — confidence 68%. NVDA Sep 23 previous_change_percent -1.54% per Finnhub Sep 23 current $225.335 open $228.03 high $228.95 low $224.02 prev $228.87 change -3.535 -1.54%, Sep 24 live $222.1325 open $222.08 high $223.2299 low $221.09 prev $225.51 -1.49% Finnhub Sep 24, low $221.09 near 50-day $215.47 support per MarketBeat Sep 23. Catalyst substantive Superion 256 first on-premise quantum at NVIDIA Accelerated Quantum Research Center linking GB200 NVL72 via NVQLink Sep 23 per FinancialContent. Hypothesis reversal up from -1.54% fall to bounce. Direction up reversal. Reference latest Sep 24 intraday live.
Return: 1.30%; alpha: 0.63%. - SOXL up — confidence 66%. SOXL Sep 23 previous_change_percent -4.44% per Finnhub Sep 23 current $145.2 open $149.89 high $151 low $139.58 prev $151.95 change -6.75 -4.44%, Sep 24 live $140.4033 open $138.47 high $143.475 low $136.9 prev $146.25 -3.99% Finnhub Sep 24, Tickeron Sep 24 09:59 EDT $139.96 -6.29 -4.30% vs Sep 23 close, StockInvest Sep 24 expectations $139.83-$152.67 +/-9.19%, Tradestie $146.25 extended vs fair $106-133 support $99.87 resistance $152.64. Catalyst speculative semiconductor leverage bounce. Hypothesis reversal up from -4.44% fall to bounce. Direction up reversal. Reference latest Sep 24 intraday live.
Return: 8.84%; alpha: 8.17%. - MSFT down — confidence 65%. MSFT Sep 23 previous_change_percent +0.51% per Finnhub Sep 23 current $500.58 open $500.755 high $509.44 low $495.88 prev $498 change +2.58 +0.51%, Sep 24 live $492.835 open $495.07 high $495.68 low $491.22 prev $500.59 -1.54% Finnhub Sep 24, TradersUnion $498.38 above moving averages support $491.93. Catalyst substantive Azure growth. Hypothesis reversal down from +0.51% gain to pullback. Direction down reversal. Reference latest Sep 24 intraday live.
Return: 4.37%; alpha: -5.04%. - IONQ up — confidence 64%. IONQ Sep 23 previous_change_percent +5.83% per Finnhub Sep 23 current $43.11 open $45.84 high $46.05 low $41.63 prev $40.74 5D +16.36% 1M +4.99% 6M +31.83% beta 3.34, Sep 24 live $41.99 open $41.57 high $43.43 low $41.28 prev $42.54 5D +13.98% Finnhub Sep 24, ChartExchange market open Sep 23 12:14 EDT $42.71 +4.836% vol 52M bid $42.71 ask $42.73 pre-market Sep 23 9:29 EDT $46.04 +13% vol 2M, WSNext Sep 22 close $40.74 +12.27% after-hours $45.74 Sep 23 $45.62 range $45.07-$46.50. Catalyst substantive decoder 408 logical qubits 31.5M ops Superion 256 NVIDIA GB200 NVQLink per FinancialContent Sep 23 + Motley Fool SkyWater acquisition. Hypothesis continuation up from +5.83% gain to continue. Direction up continuation. Reference latest Sep 24 intraday live.
Return: 5.98%; alpha: 5.30%.
Gemini 1.5 Pro
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As of September 24, 2026, the US equity market is displaying choppy, mixed action. While certain pockets of the technology and semiconductor sectors are seeing speculative intraday profit-taking following recent rallies, the underlying substantive AI fundamentals remain robust. Meanwhile, specific company-level headwinds, such as analyst downgrades or emergent legal liabilities, are driving isolated but substantive selloffs across other sectors.
- EXPE down — confidence 80%. Expedia gained 1.47% in the source session, attempting to recover from a severe 7.7% drop the prior day. However, this bounce appears highly speculative compared to the substantive legal claims regarding a Dominican Republic rental fire that drove the initial selloff. This setup suggests a downward reversal as selling pressure resumes and the dead-cat bounce fades.
Return: 0.97%; alpha: -1.64%. - PAYX down — confidence 85%. Paychex dropped 1.09% in the source session (following a steeper 8.7% plunge previously) after Jefferies cut its price target despite the company posting solid Q1 earnings. This analyst downgrade acts as a substantive near-term headwind that is capping upside momentum, strongly supporting a downward continuation thesis.
Return: -1.64%; alpha: 0.96%. - MU up — confidence 75%. Micron fell 2.01% amid reports highlighting insider selling and algorithmic valuation concerns from GuruFocus. We view this as a speculative, noise-driven pullback within a broader, highly substantive AI memory demand supercycle, setting up a high-probability upward reversal for the next trading session.
Return: 2.51%; alpha: 1.84%. - NVDA up — confidence 75%. Nvidia declined 1.73% during the session due to speculative intraday profit-taking across the broader semiconductor space. The underlying fundamental demand from hyperscalers for its AI accelerators remains substantive and unchanged, pointing toward an upward reversal as institutional dip-buyers step in.
Return: 1.30%; alpha: 0.63%. - SMR up — confidence 70%. NuScale Power lost 3.63% in the source session as speculative capital temporarily rotated out of clean energy names. The substantive, long-term necessity for nuclear small modular reactors to power AI data centers remains fully intact, making this an attractive entry point for an upward reversal.
Return: 0.16%; alpha: -0.51%.
Grok 4.5
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Source session September 23 saw broad equity weakness from rising Treasury yields and inflation concerns, with energy and select software outperforming while travel and payroll services lagged sharply. Next-session setup favors selective continuation in cybersecurity and AI software strength alongside potential mean-reversion in oversold travel names.
- CRWD up — confidence 65%. CrowdStrike gained approximately 5% on September 23 amid cybersecurity and AI-security momentum, closing near a 52-week high. Continuation expected as sector leadership and relative strength persist into the next session despite broader market pressure. Latest intraday quote used; data from regular-session open on September 24.
Return: -1.82%; alpha: -2.50%. - PLTR up — confidence 62%. Palantir rose 3.68% on September 23 on continued AI-platform and commercial momentum, one of the stronger S&P software names. Continuation thesis rests on multi-day relative strength and elevated investor attention. Latest intraday quote from September 24 open used.
Return: 0.57%; alpha: -0.10%. - EXPE up — confidence 58%. Expedia fell 7.7% on September 23 as travel stocks led the downside amid yields and macro caution. Reversal higher expected on the next session as the move appears overdone relative to fundamentals and sector peers. Latest intraday quote used.
Return: 0.97%; alpha: 0.29%. - ABNB up — confidence 57%. Airbnb dropped 7.56% on September 23 in tandem with travel peers under rising-rate pressure. Reversal thesis based on sharp single-day decline creating oversold conditions for a bounce. Latest available quote near prior close with intraday context.
Return: 1.78%; alpha: 1.10%. - PAYX down — confidence 55%. Paychex declined 8.8% on September 23, the largest S&P 500 loser, after earnings-related pressure. Continuation lower expected given the magnitude of the move and residual selling. Latest intraday quote used.
Return: -1.64%; alpha: 0.96%.
DeepSeek
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The September 24 session is characterized by extreme single-stock volatility driven by binary corporate events, while the broader market faces macro headwinds from rising Treasury yields above 5%. The highest-conviction setups are in names with substantive, verifiable catalysts that create sharp one-day moves independent of the market direction. Reverse stock splits, debt-restructuring announcements, and FDA regulatory decisions are producing the most violent price swings, and the most reliable continuation and reversal signals come from these event-driven names.
- BENF down — confidence 78%. Beneficient surged 438.73% on September 23 to close at $2.90 after announcing a strategy to eliminate approximately $130 million in disputed debt and $850 million in preferred equity tied to its convicted former CEO. The catalyst is substantive and verifiable, but the move was clearly speculative and unsustainable: the stock gave back about 35% in premarket trading on September 24, falling to $1.89 (Prism MarketView, September 24). The company has not entered into a definitive agreement, and the proposed resolution remains subject to negotiations. I am selecting this as a reversal (direction down) because the one-day 438% spike is far beyond what the fundamental news justifies, and the premarket selling pressure signals that profit-taking has already begun. Reference price is the September 23 regular-session close of $2.90, sourced from Yahoo Finance Taiwan, as the most recent verifiable quote available at the time of answering.
Return: 33.59%; alpha: -34.26%. - SRZN up — confidence 74%. Surrozen fell 8.18% on September 23 to close at $16.16, but the stock surged over 97% in premarket trading on September 24 to $31.895 after announcing the submission of an IND application for SZN-8141 for the treatment of diabetic macular edema (GlobeNewswire via Yahoo Finance, September 24). The catalyst is substantive: the IND submission is a concrete regulatory milestone that moves the company's ophthalmology pipeline forward, and Surrozen has a Strong Buy consensus from 6 analysts with an average price target of $44.80 (stockanalysis.com, September 2026). I am selecting this as a reversal (direction up) because the stock fell in the source session but is indicated sharply higher on a substantive catalyst. Reference price is the September 24 premarket quote of $31.895, sourced from Sina Finance, the most recent live quote available.
Return: -7.92%; alpha: -8.59%. - VSA up — confidence 70%. VisionSys AI rose 83.84% on September 23 to close at $3.64, driven by growing investor appetite for AI infrastructure and machine vision plays. The catalyst is speculative rather than substantive: the company has faced a 99.91% year-over-year revenue decline, rendering its legacy vocational training operations effectively defunct, and its pivot into the Chinese K-12 STEM market and a proposed Solana treasury plan are unproven (VCPScanner, September 2026). The stock has a tiny market cap of approximately $10.23 million and a very small float, which amplifies volatility. I am selecting this as a continuation (direction up) because momentum-driven micro-cap AI names often extend gains for a second session, and the after-hours indication was positive. However, the lack of fundamental support makes this a high-risk pick. Reference price is the September 23 close of $3.64, sourced from eToro, the most recent verifiable quote.
Return: 15.17%; alpha: 14.50%. - JAGX down — confidence 68%. Jaguar Health plunged 74.14% on September 23 to close at $8.91, a sharp reversal from its 1,190% surge on Tuesday driven by FDA fee waivers for Mytesi and Canalevia-CA1 (Benzinga, September 23). The catalyst for the decline is substantive: the massive spike was driven by a one-time regulatory fee waiver that does not change the company's underlying financial profile, and profit-taking began immediately. The stock continued to fall about 25% in premarket trading on September 24 to $6.96 (Eastmoney, September 24). I am selecting this as a continuation (direction down) because the lack of fundamental support for the prior spike makes further downside the higher-probability outcome. Reference price is the September 23 close of $8.91, sourced from Yahoo Finance Taiwan, the most recent verifiable quote available.
Return: 17.54%; alpha: -18.21%. - BYND down — confidence 65%. Beyond Meat fell 12.86% on September 23 to close at $10.03, driven by two negative developments: a court ruling requiring the company to pay $15.4 million over trademark infringement and the agreement to retire about $15 million of convertible notes in exchange for stock, which could result in significant dilution (Business Insider, September 23; TradingView, September 23). The catalyst is substantive and negative: the convertible-note exchange could lead to the issuance of up to 848,000 shares, and the legal judgment adds to the company's financial strain. I am selecting this as a continuation (direction down) because the fundamental headwinds are unresolved and the stock has a Moderate Sell consensus with an average target of $10.00 (eToro, September 2026). Reference price is the September 23 close of $10.03, sourced from eToro, the most recent verifiable quote.
Return: -12.06%; alpha: 11.39%.
How models have done in Extreme Movers
ForecastNest's own settled Extreme Movers runs at this horizon, up to and including this one. Members' own research is not counted. Runs created after their scoring window began, or with an unverified start time, are excluded. The chart is the average directional return per run. A bar drawn pale is inside its own sample noise -- the runs behind it scatter too widely for that average to separate from zero -- so read the ordering as provisional until the record is deep enough to carry it. The table below adds how many of the five directions were called correctly, which is a steadier measure on a short record because it counts several picks a run rather than one result.
Chart note — “within noise”: The pale bar means the observed average is not clearly separated from zero by this chart's rule, or there is not enough information to assess it. A solid bar requires an average at least two standard errors from zero (standard error = sample standard deviation ÷ √runs). Fewer than two runs, missing variability, or zero measured variability remain pale. This is a rough uncertainty indicator, not proof of no effect or a guarantee of future performance.
| Model | Runs | Avg directions called correctly | Avg directional return |
|---|---|---|---|
| DeepSeek | 7 | 57.14% | +2.44% |
| Grok 4 | 1 | 60.00% | +1.47% |
| Grok 4.5 | 4 | 50.00% | +0.77% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | 6 | 46.67% | +0.48% |
| Claude Opus 5 | 6 | 60.00% | +0.03% |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | 6 | 50.00% | -0.07% |
| GPT-5.6 Sol | 4 | 55.00% | -5.31% |
| GPT-6 | 1 | 20.00% | -9.71% |
View settlement prices
| Symbol | Start | End | Source | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAON | 82.10500000 | 87.25500000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAON/history/ | |
| ABNB | 152.10500000 | 154.80500000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ABNB/history/ | |
| ARTL | 4.69000000 | 4.64000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ARTL/history/ | |
| BENF | 1.33990000 | 1.79000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BENF/history/ | |
| BYND | 9.70000000 | 8.53000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BYND/history/ | |
| CRWD | 261.92160000 | 257.14640000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CRWD/history/ | |
| DIS | 104.84000000 | 104.77010000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DIS/history/ | |
| EXPE | 263.13000000 | 265.67500000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/EXPE/history/ | |
| GOOG | 334.04000000 | 340.45000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOG/history/ | |
| IONQ | 42.84000000 | 45.40000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IONQ/history/ | |
| IPDN | 3.49000000 | 4.66000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IPDN/history/ | |
| JAGX | 7.24000000 | 8.51000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/JAGX/history/ | |
| MCD | 241.01000000 | 236.57500000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MCD/history/ | |
| MSFT | 493.66500000 | 515.23000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history/ | |
| MU | 1056.89000000 | 1083.43000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MU/history/ | |
| NVDA | 221.65000000 | 224.53000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/history/ | |
| PAYX | 103.21000000 | 101.52000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PAYX/history/ | |
| PLTR | 190.78500000 | 191.87370000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PLTR/history/ | |
| SECZ | 15.18450000 | 15.05500000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SECZ/history/ | |
| SMR | 8.35500000 | 8.36860000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SMR/history/ | |
| SOXL | 138.99000000 | 151.28000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SOXL/history/ | |
| SPY | 763.96000000 | 769.10000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY/history/ | |
| SRZN | 32.34000000 | 29.78000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SRZN/history/ | |
| VSA | 2.57000000 | 2.95990000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/VSA/history/ | |
| WHLR | 3.14000000 | 4.65000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/WHLR/history/ |
Standard prompt extreme-movers-v9, SHA-256 2a5e7263cf5aa3374751062238681d12c76cd018ff8cb2859e0d22b034b992e5. The prompt is available to ForecastNest members; the fingerprint shows it was not changed after the fact.
Calculation: extreme-movers-v1.