Asked Sep 28, 10:05 AM EDT (morning session). Muse Spark 1.1, Gemini 1.5 Pro, Perplexity, Grok 4.5, Claude Opus 5.5 and GPT-6 answered the same standard prompt independently. Window: from Sep 28, 10:05 AM EDT to Sep 29, 10:05 AM EDT, the same time one session later. Benchmark: SPY.
Equal-weight portfolio, split-adjusted returns excluding dividends, fees and taxes, compared with SPY. In each chart SPY is on the left and the picks on the right, every candle drawn from zero to that asset's move; ✓ marks a pick that beat SPY.
| Model | Beat SPY | Hit rate | Return | SPY | Alpha |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muse Spark 1.1 | 0/5 | 0.00% | -1.33% | -0.37% | -0.96% |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | 0/5 | 0.00% | -1.40% | -0.37% | -1.03% |
| Perplexity | 2/5 | 40.00% | 0.86% | -0.37% | 1.23% |
| Grok 4.5 | 0/5 | 0.00% | -1.59% | -0.37% | -1.22% |
| Claude Opus 5.5 | 0/5 | 0.00% | -1.26% | -0.37% | -0.89% |
| GPT-6 | 1/5 | 20.00% | -0.16% | -0.37% | 0.20% |
Muse Spark 1.1
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S&P 500 closed week ending Sep 28 at 7743.41 +0.51% with pervasive bullish tilt (74% stocks positive). On Sep 28, futures were initially lower on US-Iran tensions and rising oil, but major index ETFs turned bullish by pre-market: SPY +0.54% at 771.35, DIA +0.94% leading. Oil bid supports energy, while AI momentum persists into Micron earnings Wednesday. PCE Sep 30 and payrolls Oct 2 are key catalysts, keeping volatility elevated.
- NVDA — confidence 72.0000%. Strongest 1-day momentum in megacap AI: intraday +2.78% to 231.345 vs SPY +0.54%, previous close 225.07. 5-day +4.08%, 1-month +6.34%. Market health check is Micron earnings Wed, lifting entire AI complex. NVDA is trading near May ATH 236.37 with low overhead. Thesis: continuation of AI bid into earnings week. Risk: high beta 1.09, profit-taking if yields spike on Trump-Xi summit news. Price is live intraday quote on Sep 28.
Return: -0.62%; alpha: -0.25%. - XOM — confidence 68.0000%. Oil catalyst: Stock futures falling as oil prices climbed amid renewed US-Iran tensions on Sep 28. XOM intraday +1.6137% to 163.18 vs SPY +0.54%, outperforming. YTD +35.6% and 1-year +42.87%. Energy is defensive hedge ahead of PCE and payrolls. Thesis: crude bid directly lifts XOM next session. Risk: reversal if tensions de-escalate, or SPY breadth rotates back to tech.
Return: -1.31%; alpha: -0.95%. - AAPL — confidence 62.0000%. Steady large-cap outperformer: closed Friday at 341.07, up 1.53%, indicated 340.68 premarket Sep 28. Current intraday 342.3 +0.36%. 5-day +1.84%, 1-month +7.07%, 50-day MA 321.56, 200-day 297.64, near ATH 345.34. Up 25.91% YTD with low volatility (0.33% last week). Thesis: flight to quality mega-cap if market choppy around Iran headlines, plus iPhone seasonal strength. Risk: high P/E 38.6 and crowded positioning at ATH.
Return: -2.63%; alpha: -2.26%. - PLTR — confidence 60.0000%. High-beta momentum leader: 5-day +6.11%, 7-day +6.77%, up 62.6% over last 3 months from 116.67. Current intraday 188.49 vs previous close 189.67, holding gains after Q2 earnings breakout around 125. Market cap 424B with strong retail flow. Thesis: momentum persistence and AI software beta > SPY for 1-day horizon. Risk: bearish 70% sentiment signal and high volatility, vulnerable to profit-taking.
Return: -1.26%; alpha: -0.90%. - MSFT — confidence 58.0000%. Rebound candidate: 7-day +4.53% (+22.39) despite Sep 28 intraday pullback -1.72% to 507.285 (open 505.47). Trading just under resistance with institutional money adding cautiously. 6-month +42.19%, 50-day 477.93. Thesis: oversold intraday dip recovers into close/next open, outperforming SPY as AI infrastructure name. Risk: rate-hike odds and 10-year yield pressure cited as headwind for QQQ/SPY.
Return: -0.81%; alpha: -0.44%.
Gemini 1.5 Pro
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The broader US market, represented by the SPY, is facing near-term headwinds from geopolitical tensions and mixed macro data. However, high-quality mega-cap tech stocks are demonstrating resilience, driven by AI hardware demand, strategic realignments, and robust cash flows, positioning them to outperform the benchmark over the next trading session.
- NVDA — confidence 85.0000%. Thesis: NVIDIA continues to dominate the AI infrastructure space with strong growth momentum and solid fundamentals. Technical and fundamental indicators keep it resilient even when broader markets dip. Risks: Vulnerable to broader macroeconomic tech-sector selloffs or unexpected supply chain constraints. Price is a delayed intraday quote as of the morning of September 28, 2026.
Return: -0.62%; alpha: -0.25%. - MSFT — confidence 80.0000%. Thesis: Microsoft's strategic positioning in AI software and robust financial health provide a strong buffer against market volatility. Its independence from major AI model developers is viewed favorably by analysts as a distinct advantage. Risks: Broader enterprise software spending slowdowns or valuation concerns. Price is a delayed intraday quote as of the morning of September 28, 2026.
Return: -0.81%; alpha: -0.44%. - AAPL — confidence 75.0000%. Thesis: Apple is maintaining steady intraday performance despite broader market pullbacks. Its strong hardware ecosystem and defensive characteristics often lead to benchmark outperformance during uncertain sessions. Risks: Headline risks related to recent legal verdicts or geopolitical supply chain issues. Price is a delayed intraday quote as of the morning of September 28, 2026.
Return: -2.63%; alpha: -2.26%. - TSLA — confidence 70.0000%. Thesis: Tesla's high beta and active retail participation can drive sharp intraday reversals. After an early morning dip, technical support levels may prompt a bounce that outperforms the flat-to-negative SPY. Risks: High volatility and sensitivity to interest rate expectations and EV demand headlines. Price is a delayed intraday quote as of the morning of September 28, 2026.
Return: -2.49%; alpha: -2.12%. - GOOGL — confidence 65.0000%. Thesis: Alphabet benefits from robust advertising revenues and continuous AI integration into its search engine. Despite a slight early morning drop, its attractive valuation relative to peers offers a good setup for a 1-day outperformance. Risks: Regulatory scrutiny and competitive threats in AI search. Price is a delayed intraday quote as of the morning of September 28, 2026.
Return: -0.47%; alpha: -0.10%.
Perplexity
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US equities closed higher on Friday with the S&P 500 up 0.5% and Nasdaq up 0.5%, supported by falling oil prices and optimism around US-China talks despite elevated Treasury yields. Technology and AI-related stocks led gains, with semiconductors and mega-cap software names showing relative strength into Monday's session. The 1-day horizon favors momentum names with near-term catalysts, strong institutional flows, and exposure to the ongoing AI infrastructure build-out.
- NVDA — confidence 78.0000%. Thesis: NVIDIA remains the core AI infrastructure play with dominant datacenter GPU share and strong pricing power. The stock closed at $225.07 on September 25, up 0.22%, and has shown resilience despite bond yield pressure. With OpenAI Developer Day scheduled for September 29, NVDA often sees pre-event momentum as AI ecosystem announcements drive speculative flows. Semiconductor sector strength and positive analyst commentary on AI safety and demand support near-term upside. Risks: Elevated valuation multiples, potential profit-taking after recent gains, and sensitivity to Treasury yield moves could limit upside if risk sentiment deteriorates.
Return: -0.62%; alpha: -0.25%. - META — confidence 75.0000%. Thesis: Meta Platforms closed at $751.66 on September 25, down 3.33% on the day but up over 30% in the past month driven by strong reception of its Muse AI agent. Analyst commentary highlights Meta's transition from AI laggard to leader, with personalized AI commerce seen as a major profit driver. The pullback offers a potential entry point ahead of continued AI monetization newsflow. Strong institutional ownership and AI narrative alignment support a bounce. Risks: Recent sharp gains increase vulnerability to rotation, ad spending concerns persist, and Reality Labs losses remain a drag on sentiment.
Return: -0.38%; alpha: -0.01%. - MSFT — confidence 72.0000%. Thesis: Microsoft closed at $516.17 on September 25, up 3.66%, leading mega-cap tech gains. The company's Copilot AI reboot focused on workplace use cases has been well-received, and Azure cloud growth remains a key driver. With earnings approaching in late October and continued enterprise AI adoption, MSFT offers a blend of stability and AI upside. The stock's relative strength into Monday's session positions it well for continuation. Risks: High valuation leaves little room for execution missteps, cloud growth deceleration fears, and regulatory overhangs could cap near-term upside.
Return: -0.81%; alpha: -0.44%. - AMD — confidence 68.0000%. Thesis: AMD closed at $630.63 on September 25, up 0.22%, hitting new records as semiconductors bounced on AI optimism. The company's MI300 AI accelerator lineup continues to gain traction against NVIDIA, and datacenter revenue growth remains strong. Semiconductor sector momentum and AI infrastructure spending tailwinds support near-term outperformance. Risks: Intense competition in AI chips, customer concentration risk, and potential multiple compression if growth expectations are not met could weigh on shares.
Return: 0.92%; alpha: 1.28%. - SOXL — confidence 65.0000%. Thesis: The Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X ETF (SOXL) closed at $151.45 on September 25, up 3.50%, offering leveraged exposure to the semiconductor sector. With AI-driven chip demand remaining robust and the sector showing relative strength, SOXL provides amplified upside if semiconductor momentum continues into Monday. The ETF's top holdings include NVDA, AMD, and AVGO, aligning with the AI infrastructure thesis. Risks: Leveraged ETFs decay over time and are highly sensitive to intraday volatility; a sector pullback would magnify losses. Suitable only for very short-term tactical exposure.
Return: 5.20%; alpha: 5.57%.
Grok 4.5
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US equities opened lower amid a sharp rebound in crude oil prices after the US rejected Iran's proposal on the Strait of Hormuz, pushing WTI above $96 and Brent near $108. The 10-year Treasury yield jumped to around 5.23%, heightening inflation and rate-hike concerns ahead of core PCE and the jobs report later in the week. Tech and growth names faced pressure while energy and related cyclicals showed relative strength. Breadth is mixed and volatility has edged higher; the session favors oil-levered names and any idiosyncratic positive catalysts over the broad market.
- NVDA — confidence 72.0000%. Nvidia announced a record $150 billion share-repurchase authorization and new AI-agent security tools, driving the stock higher in early trading while the broader market declined. Relative strength versus SPY is pronounced on a day when semiconductors are otherwise soft. Thesis: buyback support and AI narrative resilience should allow NVDA to finish the session well ahead of the index. Risks: any escalation in Middle East tensions or a sharp further rise in yields could still pressure high-multiple tech, and the move may fade into the close if oil keeps climbing.
Return: -0.62%; alpha: -0.25%. - XLE — confidence 68.0000%. The Energy Select Sector SPDR is the purest liquid expression of the oil-price spike that is the dominant macro driver today. With WTI up more than 4% and futures pointing to continued strength, XLE is trading higher while SPY is lower. Thesis: energy should remain the relative-strength leader for the remainder of the session. Risks: any sudden diplomatic breakthrough that sends oil lower, or broad risk-off selling that overwhelms sector gains.
Return: -1.45%; alpha: -1.08%. - XOM — confidence 65.0000%. Exxon Mobil is rising in tandem with crude as the largest integrated major with significant upstream leverage. Early gains of roughly 1.4% contrast with SPY’s decline. Thesis: high-quality balance sheet and direct oil beta should keep XOM outperforming the index for the day. Risks: profit-taking after recent energy strength or a rapid reversal in oil prices on any Iran-related headlines.
Return: -1.31%; alpha: -0.95%. - VLO — confidence 62.0000%. Valero, a leading independent refiner, benefits from elevated crude prices and refining margins that typically expand when oil spikes on supply concerns. The stock is higher while the market is lower. Thesis: refining leverage plus energy-sector momentum supports outperformance versus SPY today. Risks: refining crack spreads can lag or compress if product demand softens, and the stock is already extended after strong September gains.
Return: -1.89%; alpha: -1.52%. - OXY — confidence 60.0000%. Occidental Petroleum offers higher operational leverage to crude prices than the integrated majors and is trading higher in early dealings. Thesis: pure-play upstream exposure should allow OXY to outperform a soft SPY on the oil-driven session. Risks: higher beta means larger drawdowns if oil reverses, and the name has been more volatile than XOM or XLE recently.
Return: -2.66%; alpha: -2.29%.
Claude Opus 5.5
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Risk-off open on Monday. President Trump rejected Iran's seven-day truce proposal for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and Brent crude jumped back above $107 (WTI near $95-96). The 10-year Treasury yield is at a near two-decade high around 5.2%, gold and silver are sharply lower, and software and AI-chip names are weak after renewed AI-safety incidents at OpenAI. The S&P 500 is down roughly 0.5% early, with the Nasdaq underperforming. Tilt: an idiosyncratic catalyst in NVDA (record $150B buyback increase plus a new agent-safety platform) and oil-levered energy names that benefit from a sustained geopolitical risk premium. The key two-sided risk is that indirect US-Iran talks, which Trump expects to resume this week, could produce a headline that quickly unwinds the oil premium. PCE (Wednesday) and payrolls (Friday) fall outside or at the edge of this window.
- NVDA — confidence 60.0000%. Thesis: NVIDIA announced the largest buyback authorization increase on record (+$150B, $235B remaining through FY2028) alongside the Open Agent Safety Platform. The stock traded roughly 3% higher shortly after the open while the Nasdaq fell, which is a clear idiosyncratic bid against a weak tape. Reported forward P/E of about 16.5x, the lowest in a decade, supports dip-buying, and announcement-day strength on large buybacks often carries into the next session. Risks: the broader AI and semiconductor complex is under pressure from the OpenAI training pause and 'AI bubble' commentary, and AMD and Broadcom are slipping. Beta of about 2.2 means a deeper Nasdaq selloff could overwhelm the buyback effect, and some of the gap may fade intraday. Price note: reference_price is the last regular-session close (Sept 25), taken from the Yahoo quote page. I could not retrieve a clean live intraday print; reports put intraday trading around +3.4% (about $232).
Return: -0.62%; alpha: -0.25%. - XOM — confidence 57.0000%. Thesis: Trump's rejection of Iran's Hormuz proposal re-inflated the crude risk premium, with Brent up about 3-4% to around $107-108. Diesel is near record highs amid a global refinery shortage. As the largest XLE weight, Exxon has strong momentum and value scores, and integrated majors tend to outperform SPY on days when oil rises and yields hurt long-duration equities. Risks: Trump said talks resume this week, so any report of progress could reverse oil sharply, as happened on Friday and in late June. Exxon also has larger Middle East production exposure than Chevron, and a proposed US diesel export ban is a policy wildcard. Price note: reference_price is a pre-market quote from the morning of Sept 28 (Benzinga Pro data), not a regular-session print.
Return: -1.31%; alpha: -0.95%. - CVX — confidence 55.0000%. Thesis: HSBC raised its Chevron price target to $250 from $218 on Sept 25, citing high upstream sensitivity to oil and the lowest Middle East exposure among the five largest global majors. The stock has pulled back from its September peak near $217, leaving room to catch up as crude re-rates higher after the rejected truce. It was up about 1.5% pre-market alongside other majors. Risks: the same de-escalation headline risk as XOM; if Iranian oil returns, the war premium in Chevron's earnings could fade quickly. It is also highly correlated with XOM and XLE, which concentrates this basket. Price note: reference_price is the approximate price cited by Investing.com in its Sept 25 note, not a live quote; I could not retrieve a Sept 28 intraday print.
Return: -1.30%; alpha: -0.93%. - XLE — confidence 54.0000%. Thesis: this is a diversified way to capture the oil-shock rotation. Energy is the only clearly green sector this morning, while tech, metals and rate-sensitive groups fall. Pre-market gains were broad across producers (APA, OXY, SM) and services. With 10-year yields above 5% and inflation fears reviving Fed-hike bets, energy's low valuation and cash-flow leverage to $95+ WTI favor relative outperformance. Risks: a diplomatic breakthrough or a sharp crude reversal would hit the whole sector at once, and the ETF offers no protection against that single factor. Price note: I could not find a current Sept 28 quote or a recent close for XLE in my sources (the latest confirmed figures were from early-to-mid September), so reference_price is omitted.
Return: -1.45%; alpha: -1.08%. - APA — confidence 50.0000%. Thesis: APA is a higher-beta E&P that gains more than the majors per dollar of crude. It was up about 2.5% pre-market on the rejected Iran truce, and its US and non-Gulf production is unaffected by Hormuz disruption while it captures the price upside. It diversifies the energy sleeve toward pure upstream leverage. Risks: higher beta cuts both ways, so an oil reversal on renewed talks would hit APA harder than XOM or CVX. It is also more sensitive to broad risk-off and credit conditions as long yields hit multi-decade highs. Price note: I found only the percentage move (+2.5% pre-market, TheStreet Pro premarket movers list) and no verifiable price level, so reference_price is omitted.
Return: -1.61%; alpha: -1.25%.
GPT-6
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Rising oil prices amid stalled US–Iran talks favor energy shares, while higher yields and renewed AI safety concerns weigh on the broader market. The five equal-weight selections combine three energy producers with two stocks that have company-specific catalysts. The main portfolio risk is a rapid easing of oil supply concerns.
- XOM — confidence 62.0000%. The latest intraday quote checked was above the prior close. Higher crude prices and today's analyst target increase support relative performance against SPY. Renewed progress in US–Iran talks could quickly reverse the oil move.
Return: -1.31%; alpha: -0.95%. - CVX — confidence 60.0000%. The latest intraday quote checked showed a gain while SPY faced pressure. Higher oil prices and today's analyst target increase offer near-term support. A ceasefire breakthrough or falling crude prices would weaken the thesis.
Return: -1.30%; alpha: -0.93%. - IONQ — confidence 56.0000%. The latest intraday quote checked was higher, and Bank of America initiated Buy coverage today. That catalyst could sustain relative strength despite broader technology weakness. High volatility, valuation sensitivity, and a reversal of the morning gain are substantial risks.
Return: -5.61%; alpha: -5.25%. - COP — confidence 55.0000%. As an oil and gas producer, COP may benefit if the rebound in crude persists through the window; its latest intraday quote checked was above the prior close. Increased Middle East exports or renewed peace progress could push oil lower and erase that advantage.
Return: -2.05%; alpha: -1.68%. - KOD — confidence 51.0000%. Kodiak reported that both treatments met primary endpoints in its Phase 3 DAYBREAK trial, creating a strong company-specific catalyst. The latest intraday quote checked had already risen sharply, so profit-taking and uncertainty about eventual regulatory approval make this the riskiest selection.
Return: 9.46%; alpha: 9.82%.
How models have done in AI Picked
ForecastNest's own settled AI Picked runs at this horizon, up to and including this one. Members' own research is not counted. Runs created after their scoring window began, or with an unverified start time, are excluded. The chart is the average alpha over SPY per run: how much the model's five equally weighted picks beat or trailed the benchmark. A bar drawn pale is inside its own sample noise -- the runs behind it scatter too widely for that average to separate from zero -- so read the ordering as provisional until a record is deep enough to carry it. The table below adds how many of the picks beat SPY, which is a steadier measure on a short record because it counts five picks a run rather than one portfolio.
Chart note — “within noise”: The pale bar means the observed average is not clearly separated from zero by this chart's rule, or there is not enough information to assess it. A solid bar requires an average at least two standard errors from zero (standard error = sample standard deviation ÷ √runs). Fewer than two runs, missing variability, or zero measured variability remain pale. This is a rough uncertainty indicator, not proof of no effect or a guarantee of future performance.
| Model | Runs | Avg picks that beat SPY | Avg alpha vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kimi | 2 | 40.00% | +0.11% |
| GPT-6 | 5 | 24.00% | +0.08% |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | 13 | 43.08% | -0.16% |
| Claude Sonnet 4.5 | 1 | 60.00% | -0.38% |
| Grok 4.5 | 14 | 34.29% | -0.70% |
| DeepSeek | 13 | 47.69% | -0.71% |
| Gemini 3 Pro | 1 | 40.00% | -0.88% |
| GPT-5.6 Sol | 10 | 34.00% | -0.92% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | 14 | 30.00% | -1.00% |
| Claude Opus 5 | 12 | 35.00% | -1.03% |
| Perplexity | 2 | 30.00% | -1.54% |
| Claude Opus 5.5 | 2 | 0.00% | -2.16% |
View settlement prices
| Symbol | Start | End | Source | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | 342.08000000 | 333.10000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/history/ | |
| AMD | 613.04000000 | 618.65840000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMD/history/ | |
| APA | 43.08000000 | 42.38500000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/APA/history/ | |
| COP | 127.97000000 | 125.35000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/COP/history/ | |
| CVX | 207.69000000 | 205.00000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CVX/history/ | |
| GOOGL | 341.35000000 | 339.76000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOGL/history/ | |
| IONQ | 47.20000000 | 44.55000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IONQ/history/ | |
| KOD | 81.53500000 | 89.24500000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/KOD/history/ | |
| META | 723.97000000 | 721.21500000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/META/history/ | |
| MSFT | 508.28000000 | 504.17500000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history/ | |
| NVDA | 231.34000000 | 229.91500000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/history/ | |
| OXY | 57.01000000 | 55.49500000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/OXY/history/ | |
| PLTR | 188.79780000 | 186.41000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PLTR/history/ | |
| SOXL | 142.82610000 | 150.25500000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SOXL/history/ | |
| SPY | 767.72000000 | 764.90500000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY/history/ | |
| TSLA | 362.36000000 | 353.34000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/history/ | |
| VLO | 390.68500000 | 383.30000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/VLO/history/ | |
| XLE | 62.51500000 | 61.61000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XLE/history/ | |
| XOM | 163.14000000 | 160.99500000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XOM/history/ |
Standard prompt stock-selection-v8, SHA-256 172d5998190e5d55a9e41797f9dfceec6a821caf0a4a55841a0daa4e493aef4e. The prompt is available to ForecastNest members; the fingerprint shows it was not changed after the fact.
Calculation: equal-weight-alpha-v1.