Sep 28, 2026 - 7 AI models call event-driven stocks in the morning session. 5 models beat SPY over the window

Asked Sep 28, 10:15 AM EDT (morning session). Perplexity, Gemini 1.5 Pro, Grok 4.5, Claude Opus 5.5, GPT-6, DeepSeek and Muse Spark 1.1 answered the same standard prompt independently. Window: from Sep 28, 10:15 AM EDT to Sep 29, 10:15 AM EDT, the same time one session later. Benchmark: SPY.

Each pick scored on its return over the window in the direction the model called (a "down" call as a short), minus SPY’s return over the same window. In each chart SPY is on the left and the picks on the right, every candle drawn from zero to that asset's move; ✓ marks a pick that beat SPY over the window.

Model	Correct	Hit rate	Return	SPY	Alpha vs SPY
Perplexity	2/5	40.00%	-0.24%	-0.27%	0.03%
Gemini 1.5 Pro	3/5	60.00%	0.36%	-0.27%	0.63%
Grok 4.5	4/5	80.00%	2.80%	-0.27%	3.07%
Claude Opus 5.5	3/5	60.00%	0.63%	-0.27%	0.91%
GPT-6	2/5	40.00%	-0.82%	-0.27%	-0.55%
DeepSeek	3/5	60.00%	3.24%	-0.27%	3.51%
Muse Spark 1.1	3/5	60.00%	-1.96%	-0.27%	-1.69%

Perplexity

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US equities closed higher on Friday with the S&P 500 up 0.5% and Nasdaq up 0.5%, supported by falling oil prices and optimism around US-China talks despite elevated Treasury yields. Technology and AI-related stocks led gains, with semiconductors and mega-cap software names showing relative strength into Monday's session. The 1-day horizon favors momentum names with near-term catalysts, strong institutional flows, and exposure to the ongoing AI infrastructure build-out.

1. KOD — confidence 82%. Thesis: Kodiak Sciences is reporting topline Phase 3 DAYBREAK results for Zenkuda and KSI-501 in wet AMD today (September 28) at 8:30 AM EDT. Positive data could validate its retina pipeline and drive significant re-rating given the company's precommercial status. The stock closed at $32.35 on September 25 and has shown high volatility around catalysts. Risks: Binary clinical readout risk—if data disappoints on efficacy or safety, shares could gap down sharply. The stock has already run up over 60% intraday on September 28 ahead of the readout, increasing emotional continuation and profit-taking risk post-announcement.
   Return: 3.69%; alpha: 3.96%.
2. SPCX — confidence 76%. Thesis: SpaceX is targeting its Starship Flight 14 launch for September 28, 2026, with a 75-minute window opening at 8:15 AM EDT (12:15 UTC). This is the first orbital flight attempt and first revenue-generating mission, deploying Starlink V3 satellites. A successful launch would be a major milestone, potentially driving shares higher. The stock closed at $148.68 on September 25 and has gained over 10% in the past year. Risks: Launch delays or failures remain possible given the experimental nature of Starship. Weather, regulatory, or technical issues could push the launch beyond the window, creating disappointment. The stock has already rallied into the event, increasing vulnerability to a 'sell the news' reaction.
   Return: -0.84%; alpha: -0.57%.
3. IDT — confidence 71%. Thesis: IDT Corporation is scheduled to report Q4 and full-year fiscal 2026 earnings on September 28, 2026 at 8:00 AM EDT. The company has shown consistent profitability with net income of $70.7 million for the first nine months of FY26. A strong print could reinforce fintech and communications growth narratives. The stock closed at $67.75 on September 25 and has traded in a $45–$72 range over the past year. Risks: Earnings miss or weak guidance could trigger a sharp pullback. The stock is down 1.49% intraday on September 28 ahead of the print, suggesting cautious sentiment. Post-earnings volatility is elevated for small-cap fintech names.
   Return: 8.38%; alpha: 8.65%.
4. MTN — confidence 68%. Thesis: Vail Resorts is scheduled to report fiscal Q4 2026 earnings after market close on September 28, 2026. Analysts expect an EPS loss of $5.23 on revenue of $275.6 million. As a ski resort operator, MTN's results provide early signals for the winter season and consumer discretionary spending. The stock closed at $136.11 on September 25, down 1.24% on the day. A beat or strong forward guidance could drive a gap-up on September 29. Risks: Seasonal business model creates high earnings volatility. Weak guidance or pass sales concerns could pressure shares. The stock has underperformed the broader market year-to-date, reflecting cyclical concerns.
   Return: -1.87%; alpha: -1.60%.
5. GNS — confidence 64%. Thesis: Genius Group is among the 12 companies reporting earnings on September 28, 2026, with results expected before market open. The micro-cap edtech name has shown high volatility around earnings prints. The stock closed at $0.1573 on September 25, up 1.48% on the day. A positive surprise or updated guidance could drive outsized percentage moves given the low share price and small market cap (~$30 million). Risks: Extreme volatility and liquidity risk—GNS is a speculative micro-cap with limited institutional ownership. Negative results could trigger a sharp decline. The stock has declined significantly over the past year, reflecting execution concerns in the edtech sector.
   Return: -10.56%; alpha: -10.28%.

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Gemini 1.5 Pro

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The US equity markets face headwinds from geopolitical tensions and elevated oil prices, but specific stock events and earnings continue to drive idiosyncratic price action in an otherwise range-bound tape.

1. RBLX — confidence 85%. Jefferies downgraded Roblox due to overly optimistic bookings estimates and margin pressures. The stock is already trading lower but continued institutional repricing through the close should add downward pressure as growth expectations are reset. The primary risk is a short-covering bounce if dip buyers step in at technical support levels. Price is a delayed intraday quote as of September 28.
   Return: -2.07%; alpha: 2.34%.
2. NVDA — confidence 80%. Nvidia's rollout of open-source tools to govern rogue AI agents reinforces its dominance not just in hardware but in the broader AI software and safety ecosystem. This catalyst is expected to invite sustained bid flow over the session. The risk is a sudden reversal in tech sentiment from broader macroeconomic concerns such as rising interest rates. Price is a delayed intraday quote as of September 28.
   Return: -0.58%; alpha: -0.31%.
3. PEP — confidence 75%. Deutsche Bank's downgrade highlights turnaround struggles in PepsiCo's core North American Foods segment. Given its high dividend payout ratio and shifting investor sentiment, the stock will likely experience ongoing pressure throughout the window as yield-seeking investors reassess the risks. A potential risk to this bearish thesis is defensive sector rotation if overall market volatility spikes. Price is a delayed intraday quote as of September 28.
   Return: -0.04%; alpha: 0.31%.
4. RLJ — confidence 70%. Following Raymond James downgrading RLJ Lodging Trust to Market Perform, institutional sentiment is cooling. Despite strong profitability metrics, the lack of financial strength makes the stock vulnerable in a high-rate environment, likely pushing shares lower during the window. A surprise uptick in broader REIT sentiment is the primary upside risk. Price is a delayed intraday quote as of September 28.
   Return: -0.81%; alpha: 1.08%.
5. COST — confidence 75%. Costco delivered a strong earnings beat for its fiscal fourth quarter, demonstrating resilient consumer demand and pricing power. Post-earnings momentum typically carries through the session as analysts digest the results and upgrade forward estimates. The main risk is intraday profit-taking if the broader consumer discretionary sector sells off. Price is a delayed intraday quote as of September 28.
   Return: -0.52%; alpha: -0.25%.

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Grok 4.5

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Equities opened lower on higher oil and yields after the US rejected an Iran proposal on the Strait of Hormuz. Energy is relatively firm while tech faces pressure except for idiosyncratic catalysts. Key scheduled events this week include Micron and Nike earnings plus macro data; today's focus is on companies with fresh or imminent catalysts that can drive sharp single-session moves independent of the broad market.

1. NVDA — confidence 70%. Nvidia announced a record $150 billion increase to its share-repurchase authorization, the largest such increase on record, lifting remaining capacity to $235 billion. The news is already lifting the stock against a softer market tape. Thesis: the capital-return signal and AI confidence narrative should support continued relative strength through the session. Risks: broader risk-off from oil/yields or profit-taking after the initial spike could limit the upside.
   Return: -0.58%; alpha: -0.31%.
2. JEF — confidence 62%. Jefferies reports fiscal Q3 results after the close today. Investment banks often show elevated volatility around earnings as trading and advisory revenues are scrutinized. Thesis: any beat or constructive commentary on deal activity could drive a sharp after-hours and next-session move higher. Risks: a miss or cautious outlook on capital markets activity could produce a downside gap; the window captures the immediate reaction.
   Return: 0.01%; alpha: 0.28%.
3. CCL — confidence 60%. Carnival reports Q3 results before the open on Tuesday. Cruise operators have shown large earnings reactions tied to booking trends and pricing power. Thesis: continued recovery in demand could produce a positive surprise and sharp upside into and through the window. Risks: any guidance disappointment on costs or yield could trigger a downside move; anticipation itself may drive pre-earnings volatility today.
   Return: 11.68%; alpha: 11.96%.
4. MU — confidence 58%. Micron reports fiscal Q4 results after the close on Wednesday, with options implying an ~8.6% move. Memory stocks often reprice on HBM and AI-related commentary well ahead of the print. Thesis: positioning and optimism around AI demand can drive upside in the current window even before results. Risks: any pre-earnings caution or sector weakness from higher yields could produce downside; the actual print occurs after the window.
   Return: 2.71%; alpha: 2.98%.
5. NKE — confidence 55%. Nike reports fiscal Q1 results after the close on Thursday. The stock has been under pressure and sits near multi-year lows; any sign of margin recovery or China stabilization is highly sensitive. Thesis: low expectations create asymmetric upside potential on any positive update, with anticipation able to move shares in the current window. Risks: continued soft guidance or inventory commentary could extend the downtrend; the print itself is after the window.
   Return: 0.18%; alpha: 0.45%.

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Claude Opus 5.5

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Risk-off Monday open. The S&P 500 is down about 0.5% and the Nasdaq underperforms after Trump rejected Iran's truce proposal (Brent near $107-108), the 10-year yield sits near 5.2%, and fresh AI-safety incidents weigh on software and chips. Against this tape, the most tradeable single-stock catalysts inside the window are: two after-close earnings reports tonight (Jefferies and Vail Resorts, both officially scheduled), NVIDIA's record buyback increase (observed this morning), Micron's pre-earnings positioning ahead of its confirmed Sept 30 report (outside the window, so anticipation only), and SpaceX's Starship Flight 14 (launched this morning, with the orbital phase still pending). Directional calls are made from the price at submission, not from the opening gap. Continuation risk is high in NVDA and SPCX, where part of the news is already priced.

1. MTN — confidence 55%. Thesis (down): Vail reports FY2026 Q4 after today's close. The setup skews negative. The Q4 EPS consensus has been drifting lower. Vail missed estimates in three of the last four quarters, including a miss on both EPS and revenue in the peak winter quarter. Reports flag mounting concerns over declining Epic Pass sales after a poor-snowfall season with lower skier visits. With consumer sentiment near historic lows and the dividend payout ratio around 171%, weak pass units or soft FY2027 guidance could trigger a gap down at tomorrow's open, inside the window. Expectations versus facts: all of this is anticipated, and no results have been reported yet. Risks: expectations are already low, and 13 analysts are neutral with a mean target about 6% above the current price. The $106M annualized cost-savings program, strong Australian pass growth or a dividend reaffirmation could produce a relief rally, and a clean beat would squeeze bears. Price note: reference_price is an intraday Sept 28 quote cited by Investing.com (Reuters) shortly before submission, not an exchange feed.
   Return: -1.87%; alpha: 2.14%.
2. NVDA — confidence 55%. Thesis (up): observed fact. This morning NVIDIA's board added $150B to its repurchase authorization, the largest increase on record, bringing the remaining authorization to $235B through FY2028. It also launched an open agent-safety platform aimed directly at the AI-containment incidents that are pressuring the sector. The stock traded roughly 3% higher near the open while the Nasdaq fell, showing idiosyncratic demand. Reported forward P/E of about 16.5x (a decade low) invites follow-through buying and analyst reiterations into tomorrow morning. I forecast only a modest further gain from the current, already-elevated level. Risks: emotional continuation may fade, since opening gaps on buyback news often partially retrace. The semiconductor group is under pressure (OpenAI training pause, SK Hynix and KOSPI weakness, AMD and Broadcom slipping), and beta of about 2.2 means a deeper Nasdaq selloff could drag NVDA lower despite the buyback. Price note: I could not retrieve a clean live intraday print, so reference_price is the last regular-session close (Sept 25) from the Yahoo quote page; reports put intraday trading around +3.4%.
   Return: -0.58%; alpha: -0.31%.
3. JEF — confidence 52%. Thesis (up): Jefferies reports fiscal Q3 (June-August) after today's close. Consensus is roughly $1.00 EPS on about $2.2B revenue. EPS estimates were revised up about 8% over the past month, consistent with a strong summer for IPOs and underwriting (including mega-IPO activity) and active trading desks in a volatile rate and oil tape. As an early bellwether for bank capital-markets revenue, a beat could lift the stock at tomorrow's open. Valuation support: GuruFocus flags a discount to its GF Value, and insiders have been net buyers. Expectations versus facts: estimate revisions are observed, while the results themselves are not yet reported. Risks: Jefferies missed in the prior quarter. It has elevated leverage (debt-to-equity around 3.5), and credit or private-credit marks or trading losses tied to the rate spike could disappoint. Higher estimates also raise the bar, so a merely in-line print could sell off. Price note: reference_price is the last close cited by GuruFocus (most recent regular session, Sept 25); I could not obtain a Sept 28 intraday quote.
   Return: 0.01%; alpha: 0.28%.
4. MU — confidence 50%. Thesis (up): Micron's confirmed FQ4 report on Sept 30 after the close falls outside this window, so the trade is pre-earnings anticipation. Consensus looks for record revenue of about $51B (+353% YoY). Wells Fargo ($1,525) and Citi ($1,300) raised targets last week, retail sentiment is strongly bullish, and traders are positioning for a possible new buyback. The stock has rebounded about 17% from its Sept 16 low to $1,082. Today's chip-wide dip on AI-safety headlines and SK Hynix weakness could be bought as positioning builds into the print. Risks: the rally has been extreme (+275% YTD) and the setup is crowded. The OpenAI training pause and 'chips with nowhere to go' narratives could deepen memory-stock selling. Solidigm IPO chatter and the KOSPI's 2.7% drop show that Asian memory peers are weak today, and pre-earnings de-risking is possible. Price note: reference_price is the Sept 25 close cited by TradingKey (most recent regular session); I found no Sept 28 intraday quote, though Stocktwits reported about a 1% overnight dip.
   Return: 2.71%; alpha: 2.98%.
5. SPCX — confidence 45%. Thesis (up): Starship Flight 14, the vehicle's first orbital attempt carrying 26 Starlink V3 satellites, launched this morning. The company's update (reported by GuruFocus) confirmed hot-staging with Raptor ignition, a controlled Super Heavy splashdown and a completed ascent burn, with the orbital phase planned later today. If orbit and satellite deployment are confirmed later in the session, the key Starlink-scaling milestone could push the stock through the $153-153.50 resistance flagged by analysts, and success headlines typically extend into the next morning. The stock is also about 27% below its 52-week high, leaving room for a relief move. Observed versus uncertain: launch and ascent occurred; orbital insertion and deployment are not yet confirmed. Risks: this is a binary outcome, so an anomaly in the orbital phase would likely cause a sharp drop. Sell-the-news, an approaching lockup expiry, recent insider sales (including by the President) and a price-to-sales multiple above 150x all cap the upside. Price note: reference_price is the Sept 28 pre-market quote reported by TheStreet, not a regular-session print.
   Return: -0.84%; alpha: -0.57%.

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GPT-6

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Company-specific news is driving unusually large moves in KOD and MDB, while Boeing faces renewed regulatory scrutiny. The forecasts below cover additional movement from the current window, not gains or losses already recorded today. Sharp emotional moves can continue longer than expected or reverse abruptly.

1. MDB — confidence 57%. The CEO departure and interim appointment have occurred. The intraday quote checked already reflects a steep decline; the forecast is for further weakness as investors reassess leadership immediately before tomorrow's officially scheduled Investor Day. Reaffirmed guidance and a rebound after the initial shock are major risks.
   Return: -1.17%; alpha: 1.44%.
2. KOD — confidence 52%. Positive Phase 3 results have occurred and were known before the window began. The intraday quote checked was already roughly 160% above the prior close. I expect some profit-taking from that level, but enthusiasm could continue and produce another sharp rise; this is a high-uncertainty reversal forecast.
   Return: 3.69%; alpha: -3.41%.
3. BA — confidence 56%. The reported 737 MAX software issue and FAA review are already public, and the intraday quote checked showed a sizable decline. Continued concern about certification or delivery delays could extend the loss. Boeing says existing pilot procedures address the scenario, so clarification from the FAA or airlines could reverse the reaction.
   Return: 0.77%; alpha: -0.50%.
4. MU — confidence 54%. Micron's earnings call is officially scheduled for September 30, after this forecast window. Its approach can still move the stock now: the intraday quote checked was lower amid weakness in AI-related shares, and I expect some further reduction in risk ahead of results. A recovery in semiconductor sentiment or optimistic earnings expectations could instead lift MU.
   Return: 2.71%; alpha: -2.44%.
5. BWXT — confidence 51%. BWXT's Investor Day is officially scheduled within the forecast window. Anticipation of management presentations or materials posted beforehand could lift the stock from the intraday quote checked. No new targets or contracts have been announced for the event, and disappointing presentations or broader market weakness could outweigh anticipation.
   Return: 1.91%; alpha: 2.19%.

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DeepSeek

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US equities are in a event-heavy stretch as Q3 earnings season begins and key regulatory decisions approach. Near-term volatility is likely concentrated in single names with scheduled catalysts, while the broader market digests mixed macro signals. Anticipation of several high-impact events within the next 24 hours could drive sharp moves in affected stocks, creating directional opportunities relative to SPY.

1. JEF — confidence 70%. Jefferies reports Q3 earnings after the close on September 28, 2026. The stock has a history of beating EPS estimates (38% of the time) and revenue estimates (75% of the time) over the past two years. With a dividend yield above 3% and a valuation near a three-year low, a positive surprise could drive upside. Risks include a year-over-year EPS decline expectation and potential market volatility affecting investment banking revenue. The reference price is the latest regular-session close.
   Return: 0.01%; alpha: 0.28%.
2. CCL — confidence 65%. Carnival reports fiscal Q3 2026 results before the market opens on September 29, 2026. The company has seen record customer deposits and robust booking levels, but analysts expect a year-over-year EPS decline and margin pressure from higher fuel costs. A beat on revenue or optimistic guidance could lift the stock. Risks include softer pricing and fuel headwinds that may weigh on results. The reference price is the latest regular-session close.
   Return: 11.68%; alpha: 11.96%.
3. KMX — confidence 60%. CarMax is set to report Q2 fiscal 2027 earnings before the market opens on September 29, 2026. Analysts expect EPS of around $0.66-$0.73, representing year-over-year growth. The used-car market has shown resilience, and a positive surprise could drive the stock higher. Risks include potential weakness in consumer demand and margin compression. The reference price is the latest regular-session close.
   Return: 7.92%; alpha: 8.19%.
4. SRRK — confidence 75%. Scholar Rock has a PDUFA action date of September 30, 2026, for its SMA therapy apitegromab. The FDA review is on track, and approval could come at any time through that date. Positive anticipation and a potential early approval could drive significant upside. Risks include a complete response letter or delayed decision, which could cause a sharp decline. The reference price is the latest regular-session close.
   Return: -1.61%; alpha: -1.34%.
5. TSLA — confidence 55%. Tesla is set to unveil its second-generation Roadster on October 1, 2026. Anticipation of the event, which may highlight SpaceX collaboration and advanced performance specs, could drive positive sentiment in the stock within the window. Risks include a sell-the-news reaction if the reveal disappoints or if broader EV sector weakness persists. The reference price is the latest regular-session close.
   Return: -1.81%; alpha: -1.53%.

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Muse Spark 1.1

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Market is in late-September window with light macro calendar on Monday Sep 28 and heavy micro catalysts on Tuesday Sep 29. Pre-market movers are acquisition-driven small caps, while large-cap focus is on scheduled Q3 earnings from investment bank Jefferies after close Monday and consumer-leisure names Carnival, CarMax, AAR and Concentrix on Tuesday. Anticipation and immediate reaction to these dated earnings should drive idiosyncratic gaps over the 1-day window, with SPY relatively flat.

1. JEF — confidence 72%. Jefferies is officially scheduled to release Q3 2026 results after market close on Monday Sep 28. This is an observed scheduled event. Price check: intraday quote $47.23 on Sep 28 from Finnhub, down 0.94%. Thesis: Jefferies is a leading indicator for Wall Street deal flow; expectations are for EPS ~$1.04 vs $1.05 prior year. With investment banking revenues volatile and stock down 23% YTD, a miss or weak commentary could trigger immediate after-hours and next-day selling. Forecast down 4% as anticipation unwinds into the print. Risk: strong trading or banking beat could cause sharp upside continuation.
   Return: 0.01%; alpha: 0.26%.
2. CCL — confidence 68%. Carnival Corp reports Q3 2026 before open Tuesday Sep 29, confirmed by multiple earnings calendars. Price check: $22.245 intraday Sep 28, down 27% YTD. Consensus EPS $1.35-1.36 on revenue $8.39B vs $1.43 last year, call at 10am ET. Thesis: cruise demand remains strong but fuel and cost concerns plus lowered price momentum (-10% 1-month) set up for disappointment. Expect downside gap if EPS misses or guidance softens. Risk: low valuation at 8.75x forward earnings could cause short squeeze on beat.
   Return: 11.68%; alpha: -11.41%.
3. KMX — confidence 65%. CarMax reports Q2 2027 before open Tuesday Sep 29, scheduled for 8am ET. Price check: $57.885 intraday Sep 28, up 49% YTD but off highs after 145 corporate job cuts reported Sep 21. Consensus EPS $0.721-0.725 on $6.95B revenue, down 44% vs prior quarter EPS $1.31. Thesis: used-car retailer faces rising rates and affordability squeeze; cost cuts signal margin pressure. Market positioned for weak EPS YoY, but even in-line may be sold due to high expectations into print. Forecast up 3.5% if cost discipline and beat viewed positively, as JPM raised target to $70. Risk: used car price deflation could crush gross profit per unit.
   Return: 7.92%; alpha: 8.19%.
4. AIR — confidence 62%. AAR Corp aerospace services reports Q1 2027 after close Tuesday Sep 29 at 5pm ET. Price check: $115.07 intraday Sep 28, down from $154 high, still +38% YTD. Consensus EPS $1.31-1.33 on $880M revenue. Thesis: strong MRO demand supports top line but stock's 50-day MA at $132 is well above current price, indicating momentum loss. A beat on last quarter (+$0.15) may be hard to repeat with supply chain constraints. Anticipation of print can lift stock modestly into close Sep 29; forecast up 3% on expectation of continued 23% revenue growth narrative. Risk: any miss triggers rapid de-rating given high beta 1.12.
   Return: -8.30%; alpha: -8.03%.
5. CNXC — confidence 60%. Concentrix reports Q3 2026 after close Tuesday Sep 29 at 5pm ET per guidance page. Price check: $24.93 intraday Sep 28, down 40% YTD and -10.5% over 5 days, trading near 52-week low $19.12. Consensus Q3 EPS $2.65-2.77 on FY guidance $10.83-11.18. Thesis: CX services firm has been de-rated on AI disruption fears and lowered outlooks; oversold bounce likely if results merely in-line and outlook maintained. Anticipation of cash preservation and high dividend yield 5.1% may support buying into print. Forecast up 4.5%. Risk: another guidance cut would accelerate decline.
   Return: 2.27%; alpha: 2.54%.

Full prediction and audit record

How models have done in Event Gaps

ForecastNest's own settled Event Gaps runs at this horizon, up to and including this one. Members' own research is not counted. Event Gaps forecasts must have been created during regular US market hours to enter these statistics. Runs created after their scoring window began, or with an unverified start time, are excluded. The chart is the average alpha vs SPY per run. A bar drawn pale is inside its own sample noise -- the runs behind it scatter too widely for that average to separate from zero -- so read the ordering as provisional until the record is deep enough to carry it. The table below adds how many of the five picks beat SPY, which is a steadier measure on a short record because it counts several picks a run rather than one result.

Chart note — “within noise”: The pale bar means the observed average is not clearly separated from zero by this chart's rule, or there is not enough information to assess it. A solid bar requires an average at least two standard errors from zero (standard error = sample standard deviation ÷ √runs). Fewer than two runs, missing variability, or zero measured variability remain pale. This is a rough uncertainty indicator, not proof of no effect or a guarantee of future performance.

Model	Runs	Avg picks with positive alpha	Avg alpha vs SPY
DeepSeek	3	66.67%	+3.10%
Perplexity	2	40.00%	+2.52%
Muse Spark 1.1	3	66.67%	+2.36%
Grok 4.5	3	60.00%	+1.22%
Gemini 1.5 Pro	2	70.00%	+1.06%
GPT-5.6 Sol	2	60.00%	+0.69%
Claude Opus 5	1	40.00%	-0.25%
Gemini 3 Pro	1	40.00%	-0.27%
Claude Opus 5.5	2	40.00%	-0.32%
GPT-6	1	40.00%	-0.55%

View settlement prices

Symbol	Start	End	Source	Notes
AIR	115.58000000	105.99000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AIR/history/
BA	188.89000000	190.35000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BA/history/
BWXT	136.37000000	138.98000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BWXT/history/
CCL	22.38000000	24.99500000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CCL/history/
CNXC	25.31000000	25.88500000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CNXC/history/
COST	924.30000000	919.48500000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/COST/history/
GNS	0.16200000	0.14490000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GNS/history/
IDT	67.39500000	73.04000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IDT/history/
JEF	47.51000000	47.51500000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/JEF/history/
KMX	57.39000000	61.93500000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/KMX/history/
KOD	83.56000000	86.64000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/KOD/history/
MDB	330.06000000	326.21010000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MDB/history/
MTN	138.36000000	135.77000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MTN/history/
MU	1046.34000000	1074.68000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MU/history/
NKE	36.13500000	36.20000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NKE/history/
NVDA	230.85000000	229.50500000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/history/
PEP	128.32000000	128.27000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PEP/history/
RBLX	42.80500000	41.92000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/RBLX/history/
RLJ	11.09000000	11.00000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/RLJ/history/
SPCX	146.94000000	145.71000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPCX/history/
SPY	767.25010000	765.16500000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY/history/
SRRK	48.76500000	47.98000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SRRK/history/
TSLA	361.04500000	354.52500000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/history/

Standard prompt event-gap-v10, SHA-256 28b70cc73fdcf01ce07829e207331d34d69f4bef7b22789d10b4e1140f1dc3fb. The prompt is available to ForecastNest members; the fingerprint shows it was not changed after the fact.

Calculation: event-gap-v3-window-direction.