Sep 29, 2026 - 7 AI models call event-driven stocks in the morning session. 1 model beat SPY over the window

Asked Sep 29, 10:14 AM EDT (morning session). ChatGPT, Muse Spark 1.1, Gemini 1.5 Pro, Perplexity, Grok 4.5, Claude Sonnet 5.5 and DeepSeek answered the same standard prompt independently. Window: from Sep 29, 10:14 AM EDT to Sep 30, 10:14 AM EDT, the same time one session later. Benchmark: SPY.

Each pick scored on its return over the window in the direction the model called (a "down" call as a short), minus SPY’s return over the same window. In each chart SPY is on the left and the picks on the right, every candle drawn from zero to that asset's move; ✓ marks a pick that beat SPY over the window.

Model	Correct	Hit rate	Return	SPY	Alpha vs SPY
ChatGPT	3/5	60.00%	0.90%	0.39%	0.50%
Muse Spark 1.1	2/5	40.00%	-1.65%	0.39%	-2.05%
Gemini 1.5 Pro	1/5	20.00%	-1.74%	0.39%	-2.13%
Perplexity	2/5	40.00%	-0.71%	0.39%	-1.11%
Grok 4.5	2/5	40.00%	-1.12%	0.39%	-1.52%
Claude Sonnet 5.5	1/5	20.00%	-2.40%	0.39%	-2.79%
DeepSeek	3/5	60.00%	-0.03%	0.39%	-0.42%

ChatGPT

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Company-specific catalysts offer clearer directional hypotheses than the broad market. These forecasts cover the full requested window ending 2026-09-30T14:14:00.000Z, excluding moves before the start. Large initial reactions increase reversal risk, so expected moves are incremental forecasts rather than repetitions of opening gaps. Retrieved intraday quotes have different timestamps and are not exact start-of-window prices. Confidence reflects subjective directional conviction, not calibrated probabilities.

1. FICO — confidence 63%. The announced mortgage-scoring competition threatens pricing power; continued investor reassessment could extend selling during this window. This is an inference, not an observed future earnings impact. The retrieved regular-session quote was $658.00 at 09:59 EDT, already down 21.75%; that decline is excluded from the forecast. Emotional liquidation may continue, but an oversold rebound or reassuring company response could sharply reverse it.
   Return: -8.03%; alpha: 7.63%.
2. KMX — confidence 61%. Reported adjusted EPS of $1.16 exceeded the $0.73 consensus, and planned repurchases strengthen the turnaround narrative. I expect further post-earnings buying, although lower profit per retail vehicle and financing-sensitive demand remain risks. The regular-session quote was $61.94 at 10:14 EDT. Its existing 9.52% daily gain is excluded. Emotional chasing could extend the rally, but profit-taking after the initial jump could overwhelm the earnings surprise.
   Return: -8.21%; alpha: -8.61%.
3. SMMT — confidence 56%. The announced $2 billion AstraZeneca investment and clinical collaboration support a financing-risk reduction thesis. The preferred-share conversion equivalent of $18.36 is above the retrieved $16.59 regular-session trade at 09:55 EDT, but is not a guaranteed common-stock floor. I expect partial recovery as investors assess the agreement. The retreat from the $18.91 opening price shows substantial selling pressure. Dilution, conditional closing, clinical uncertainty and another emotional reversal are material risks; earlier gains and losses are excluded.
   Return: 2.99%; alpha: 2.59%.
4. CCL — confidence 57%. Reported quarterly earnings exceeded expectations and management described record 2027 booking occupancy and pricing. I expect some further reassessment of demand strength. However, fourth-quarter EPS guidance below consensus and elevated fuel costs limit conviction. The regular-session quote was $24.71 at 09:59 EDT, already up 11.61%; that gain is excluded. Emotional continuation could support buying, while profit-taking and disappointing call commentary could reverse it.
   Return: 1.94%; alpha: 1.54%.
5. MU — confidence 55%. The officially scheduled earnings call provides a near-term focal point for positioning around AI-memory demand. I expect modest anticipatory buying before the window ends; this does not assume an earnings beat or exposure to the later results reaction. The retrieved regular-session quote was $1073.79 at 10:05 EDT. Earlier appreciation is excluded. Elevated expectations, pre-report de-risking and an emotional reversal in semiconductor sentiment could instead produce a decline.
   Return: -0.26%; alpha: -0.66%.

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Muse Spark 1.1

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Market is in quarter-end positioning with cruise and auto retail earnings beating today driving intraday momentum, while biotech PDUFA and Micron memory earnings tomorrow create high anticipation volatility into Sep 30 close. SPY likely muted vs single-name event gaps.

1. CCL — confidence 78%. Carnival reported Q3 FY2026 before open Sep 29: revenue $8.44B vs $8.35B est (1.1% beat), adjusted EPS $1.43 vs $1.35 est (5.9% beat), EBITDA $2.99B beat, and raised full-year adjusted EPS guidance to $2.24 midpoint. Stock already up 12.4% to $24.885 intraday on volume surge. Beat plus guide raise should sustain emotional continuation into next session as shorts cover and momentum chases. Risk: move already largely priced, cruise demand comments could reverse if macro fears. Price is intraday live Sep 29.
   Return: 1.94%; alpha: 1.54%.
2. KMX — confidence 72%. CarMax reported Q2 FY27 results Sep 29 morning: net revenues up 19.5% to $7.9B, combined used unit sales up 14.7%, adjusted EPS $1.16 vs consensus $0.72, beating by 59%. Announces resuming share repurchases Q3 FY27 and strategic update Nov 3. Intraday up 9.9% to $62.1456 showing strong reaction. Used-car pricing strength thesis validated. Risk: pullback after gap if market takes profit.
   Return: -8.21%; alpha: -8.61%.
3. SRRK — confidence 68%. Scholar Rock has PDUFA action date for apitegromab BLA for spinal muscular atrophy set for Sep 30, 2026. FDA accepted resubmission March 2026 after CRL related to third-party Catalent fill-finish OAI, not efficacy. Company said approval decision anticipated by Sep 30 and may be granted any time through Sep 30. Company has alternate fill-finish supply ready. Biotech binary into deadline typically sees run-up and volatility. Expect up on approval optimism. Risk: delay or CRL due to manufacturing.
   Return: 1.85%; alpha: 1.46%.
4. MU — confidence 65%. Micron Technology reports fiscal Q4 2026 after close Sep 30. Consensus EPS ~$31.49-$31.62 on revenue ~$50.9-$51.2B, up ~350% YoY, guidance $50B +/- $1B and $31 +/- $1. Stock up 275% YTD to ~1072, options pricing 11% move vs 8.14% average. Memory demand driven by AI. Pre-earnings run likely to continue into earnings anticipation during window, even though actual print is just after window end (after close Sep 30). Risk: high expectations, 【entity-Wells Fargo¦canonical_name=Wells Fargo】 cut price target to $1400 from $1525.
   Return: -0.26%; alpha: -0.66%.
5. JEF — confidence 60%. Jefferies Financial Group announced Q3 results Sep 29: reported $1.08 EPS beating consensus $1.00 by $0.08 per FiscalAI. Financial services earnings set tone for brokers. Stock at $47.825 intraday up slightly from $47.13 prior close, lagging beat suggests upside catch-up potential as investors digest beat. Risk: financials weak month -9.92%, macro headwinds.
   Return: -3.58%; alpha: -3.98%.

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Gemini 1.5 Pro

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The US equity market exhibits heightened sensitivity ahead of late-September macroeconomic data releases and major corporate earnings reports. Anticipation surrounding semiconductor demand, consumer discretionary trends, and enterprise software results is driving sector-specific momentum while macroeconomic caution keeps overall market volatility elevated.

1. MU — confidence 75%. Micron Technology is positioned for strong upward momentum heading into its fiscal Q4 earnings release, driven by robust AI-driven memory chip demand. Risks include elevated expectations and valuation multiples leaving little room for guidance disappointments.
   Return: -0.26%; alpha: -0.66%.
2. CCL — confidence 70%. Carnival Corporation reported strong Q3 results and raised its annual profit forecast on September 29, triggering heavy buying interest and positive momentum continuation. Risks involve broader consumer discretionary pressures and fuel cost fluctuations.
   Return: 1.94%; alpha: 1.54%.
3. JBL — confidence 68%. Jabil is anticipated to benefit from strong electronics manufacturing execution and cloud infrastructure demand ahead of its Q4 report. Risks include potential supply chain friction and tighter operating margins in commoditized segments.
   Return: -5.83%; alpha: -6.23%.
4. FDS — confidence 65%. FactSet Research Systems approaches its fiscal Q4 earnings report with expectations of steady recurring revenue growth and strong operational margins. Risks include client budget constraints and competitive pressures within financial analytics.
   Return: -0.98%; alpha: -1.38%.
5. CAG — confidence 62%. Conagra Brands is scheduled to report fiscal Q1 results, with investor focus centering on margin resilience and volume trends in packaged foods. Risks include persistent consumer value-seeking and inflationary input costs.
   Return: -3.56%; alpha: -3.95%.

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Perplexity

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US equities are positioning into a heavy earnings night with multiple high-profile prints scheduled for September 30. Anticipation is driving elevated implied volatility in several names, particularly in semiconductors and AI infrastructure where guidance will be scrutinized. The market is rewarding beats but punishing even modest misses or cautious outlooks, creating asymmetric event risk.

1. MU — confidence 78%. Micron reports fiscal Q4 2026 earnings after the close on September 30, well within the one-day window. Consensus expects EPS of ~$31.60–$32.30 on revenue near $52.2B, with heavy focus on AI-driven HBM demand and pricing trends. The stock closed at $1,053.98 on September 28 and was trading around $1,055–$1,070 intraday on September 29. A beat-and-raise scenario could push shares sharply higher, but any guide-down on memory pricing or AI capex caution risks a swift reversal. Directional bias is up given strong AI memory tailwinds and recent analyst target hikes (Baird to $1,520). Risk: macro slowdown or inventory concerns could trigger a post-earnings fade even on a beat.
   Return: -0.26%; alpha: -0.66%.
2. JBL — confidence 72%. Jabil reports fiscal Q4 2026 earnings before the open on September 30, directly inside the window. Consensus calls for EPS of ~$4.06–$4.10 on revenue near $9.7B, with AI infrastructure revenue guidance (previously $13.6B for FY26) a key focus. Shares closed at $316.74 on September 28 and were trading around $318–$322 intraday on September 29. A strong AI-driven beat and raised FY27 outlook could fuel a gap-up and sustained momentum; a miss or cautious AI commentary could reverse recent gains. Directional bias is up given AI tailwinds and analyst price targets averaging ~$430. Risk: any sign of AI demand peaking or margin pressure could spark a sharp selloff.
   Return: -5.83%; alpha: -6.23%.
3. CCL — confidence 65%. Carnival reported Q3 2026 earnings on the morning of September 29, posting EPS of $1.43 versus $1.35 expected and raising full-year adjusted net income guidance. Shares surged over 12% intraday on September 29 to around $24.99 from a prior close of $22.14. While the earnings print has already occurred, emotional continuation risk and short-covering can extend momentum into the next session. Directional bias is up for the window as the market digests the strong print and raised guidance. Risk: profit-taking after a large one-day move or broader travel-demand concerns could cap follow-through.
   Return: 1.94%; alpha: 1.54%.
4. FDS — confidence 60%. FactSet Research Systems is scheduled to report fiscal Q4 2026 earnings before the open on September 30. Consensus expects EPS of ~$4.35–$4.38 on revenue near $636M. Shares closed at $267.55 on September 28 and were trading around $267–$271 intraday on September 29. As a high-quality financial data provider, any beat with strong organic growth or margin expansion could drive a positive re-rating; a miss or soft guidance in a challenging macro could weigh. Directional bias is modestly up given resilient financials sector trends. Risk: valuation multiple compression if growth disappoints.
   Return: -0.98%; alpha: -1.38%.
5. CALM — confidence 55%. Cal-Maine Foods is scheduled to report fiscal Q1 2027 earnings before the open on September 30. Analysts project a loss of ~$0.71–$0.77 per share on revenue near $562–$586M, reflecting continued egg price normalization after avian-flu-driven highs. Shares were trading around $67.36 on September 29, near 52-week lows. A less-bad-than-feared print or signs of egg price stabilization could spark a short-covering rally; a deeper loss or weak outlook could extend the downtrend. Directional bias is down given the challenging fundamental backdrop and recent analyst target cuts. Risk: a surprise positive guide or M&A speculation could reverse the move.
   Return: -1.57%; alpha: 1.17%.

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Grok 4.5

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US equities opened firmer after Monday's yield-driven pullback as oil eased and tech stabilized. Near-term catalysts are concentrated in post-earnings follow-through for consumer and biotech names plus anticipation ahead of Micron's large AI-memory print tomorrow after the close. High implied moves and recent large beats raise both continuation and fade risks within a single session.

1. MU — confidence 68%. Micron reports fiscal Q4 after the close on 30 September with Street looking for roughly $31.6 EPS and $51B revenue on extreme YoY growth from AI DRAM/NAND pricing. The stock has already been volatile into the print; positive guidance or a beat would likely extend the session move higher from current levels, while any miss or softer outlook could reverse gains. Risks include elevated expectations after prior large beats and broader semiconductor sentiment.
   Return: -0.26%; alpha: -0.66%.
2. SMMT — confidence 72%. AstraZeneca announced a $2 billion convertible preferred equity investment at an effective ~$18.36 common-share price (premium to prior close) plus clinical collaboration on ivonescimab combinations. Shares jumped sharply in premarket and early trading; further positive flow or analyst upgrades could extend gains, while profit-taking after the large gap-up is the main risk.
   Return: 2.99%; alpha: 2.59%.
3. KMX — confidence 65%. CarMax reported a substantial Q2 fiscal 2027 beat (EPS $1.16 vs ~$0.73 consensus, revenue $7.88B vs ~$7.1B) with strong unit growth. Shares gapped higher and traded up ~7% early; continuation is possible on positive call commentary, but historical post-earnings fades and still-cautious analyst ratings raise risk of partial give-back into the next session.
   Return: -8.21%; alpha: -8.61%.
4. CCL — confidence 62%. Carnival posted a Q3 beat (adjusted EPS $1.43, revenue $8.44B) and shares rose double-digits early. Strong occupancy and bookings support further upside if guidance is constructive, yet fuel-cost sensitivity and recent target cuts create fade risk after the large move.
   Return: 1.94%; alpha: 1.54%.
5. CNXC — confidence 60%. Concentrix reports Q3 after the close today with elevated implied move (~20%). Recent results have been mixed and the stock is already weak; a miss or soft outlook could drive further downside into the next session, while a clean beat might produce a rebound. High options-implied volatility makes a sharp directional move probable.
   Return: 2.07%; alpha: -2.47%.

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Claude Sonnet 5.5

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Risk sentiment is fragile. Treasury yields are near two-decade highs, oil is elevated and Fed officials are reported to be losing patience on inflation. Single-name catalysts should matter more than index direction over this window. I favor picks where the numbers have already been reset lower or where an earnings catalyst sits just after the window, and I fade one company with an earnings print that looks likely to miss.

1. CNXC — confidence 55%. Concentrix (CNXC) is scheduled to report fiscal Q3 results after the close on Sept 29, so the gap at the Sept 30 open falls inside the window. The Q3 EPS consensus of about $2.81 sits above management's own guidance range of $2.65-$2.77 given in June, and the guidance was set after a full-year cut. That makes a modest miss or another cautious outlook more likely than a beat. Operating margins have compressed year over year, and the stock is already down about 4% today in a weak tape. Risks to this short: the stock is cheap (about 2x forward earnings) with a high dividend yield, so a strong cash-flow print, debt paydown or AI-services (iX Suite) momentum could trigger a sharp squeeze. Reference price is a real-time intraday quote from 9:42 AM EDT on Sept 29.
   Return: 2.07%; alpha: -2.47%.
2. CAG — confidence 50%. Conagra (CAG) is officially scheduled to report fiscal Q1 2027 results before the open on Sept 30, inside the window. Expectations are already reset low: EPS consensus is about $0.28-$0.31, down roughly 20% year over year, and management pre-signaled a weak quarter with a high-single-digit operating margin. CAG has beaten EPS by about 5% on average over the last four quarters, the stock is down about 14% year to date near $14, and options price roughly a 4.4% move. I expect a modest relief rally on a cleared bar. Risks: soft volumes, tariff and oil-related inflation of 5-6%, a further weak outlook, or a dividend or leverage concern (net debt is about 3.8x). Reference price omitted: sources gave only an approximate level of about $14, not a dated exact quote.
   Return: -3.56%; alpha: -3.95%.
3. CCL — confidence 45%. Carnival (CCL) reported fiscal Q3 results on Sept 29 before the open. Adjusted EPS was $1.43 versus about $1.35 expected, revenue was $8.44B, net yields were a record and beat guidance by over a point, full-year net income guidance was raised by more than $150M, and 2027 bookings were reported as strong. The stock jumped roughly 11-12% on the day. I expect modest post-earnings drift and analyst target raises, since the stock was down about 28% year to date and trades near 10-11x earnings. Risks: the gap has already captured much of the good news, high fuel prices and rising yields are headwinds, and profit-taking could fade part of the move. Reference price omitted: sources gave the pre-earnings level of about $22.25 and the percentage jump, but no exact current quote.
   Return: 1.94%; alpha: 1.54%.
4. MU — confidence 45%. Micron (MU) reports fiscal Q4 results after the close on Sept 30, which is after this window ends, so this is an anticipation trade. Consensus EPS is about $31.24-$31.52, and the Street is bullish: Baird raised its target to $1,520, JPMorgan expects an HBM shortage through 2028, and Morgan Stanley says conditions remain very good. The stock dipped about 2.6% on Sept 28 with the chip group, which leaves room for a pre-earnings rebound. Risks: it has more than tripled this year, some commentators expect a post-print pullback, higher yields and AI-chip risk-off pressure are hitting semis, and the actual result falls outside the window. The quote is the latest I found, and it may reflect the prior session rather than a live intraday print.
   Return: -0.26%; alpha: -0.66%.
5. FICO — confidence 35%. Fair Isaac (FICO) has already dropped about 20-25% today after the FHFA (Bill Pulte) said Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will move to a single pricing grid that includes VantageScore alongside FICO Classic, and Rocket Mortgage said it would default to VantageScore 4.0 in Q4. The stock is down roughly 60% year to date and hit a three-year low near $657 this morning. Call buying is at an extreme, and the move looks like an overshoot for a business whose implementation timeline is not yet specified. I expect a partial rebound over the window. Risks: this is a low-conviction mean-reversion call against strong momentum, and further regulatory news, TransUnion's extended 99-cent VantageScore pricing, or forced selling could drive continuation lower. Reference price is an intraday quote from a mid-morning Benzinga report, not an exact timestamped print.
   Return: -8.03%; alpha: -8.42%.

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DeepSeek

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The one-session window spanning 2026-09-29T14:14Z to 2026-09-30T14:14Z is dominated by a dense cluster of US earnings and regulatory catalysts. Micron's fiscal Q4 report after the 30 September close is the headline event, with options pricing an 8-9% implied move and AI-memory demand providing a strong tailwind for anticipation buying. Before the 30 September open, Conagra, Jabil and Cal-Maine all report, creating a compressed sequence of idiosyncratic outcomes in consumer staples, electronics manufacturing and food commodities. Nike does not report until 1 October after the close, but its stock enters the window at multi-year lows with heavily bearish positioning, and pre-earnings de-risking or short covering can generate a sharp move even before the print. The macro backdrop is tense: the 10-year Treasury yield is above 5.2%, Fed funds futures imply roughly a 70-75% probability of another rate hike in October, and Monday's session saw broad index declines. That raises the risk of earnings-related moves being amplified or reversed by macro flows. I favour event-driven idiosyncratic exposure over broad beta, with a mix of up and down calls across the five names.

1. MU — confidence 72%. Micron Technology reports fiscal Q4 2026 results after the market close on 30 September. This is the single largest scheduled catalyst in the window. The stock has rallied roughly 276% year-to-date on AI-driven high-bandwidth memory demand, and consensus expects adjusted EPS of approximately $31.45 on revenue near $50.9 billion, representing explosive year-over-year growth. The company has beaten the Zacks consensus estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, with an average surprise of 21.06%, and the most recent Earnings ESP is positive at +0.81%. Options traders are pricing an 8.62% post-earnings move, and the stock is already showing pre-earnings strength, gaining about 1.4% in the 29 September pre-market session on bullish positioning. The forecast covers the window from 29 September mid-session to 30 September mid-session. The actual earnings release occurs after the window ends, so the forecast is for the anticipation run-up, not the earnings reaction itself. Risks include a crowded long position, the possibility of profit-taking ahead of the print, rising Chinese DRAM supply as a medium-term competitive threat, and macro headwinds from elevated Treasury yields and October Fed hike expectations that could cap upside. The stock was trading at approximately $1,068.50 in the 29 September pre-market session, which is the reference price used here.
   Return: -0.26%; alpha: -0.66%.
2. CAG — confidence 68%. Conagra Brands reports fiscal Q1 2027 earnings before the market opens on 30 September, which falls squarely inside the target window. Consensus expects net sales of approximately $2.59 billion, roughly 1.8% below the prior-year period, and adjusted EPS of about $0.59, representing a year-over-year decline of roughly 20-28%. The stock has been under sustained pressure, down 11.4% year-to-date and trading near $14.16, with an average analyst price target of $14.41 offering minimal upside. Freight costs have been highlighted by analysts as a specific margin risk heading into the quarter, and the company has missed analyst estimates more than once in the recent past. The derivative market initially suggested only a modest move, but the combination of a low-bar guidance setup and elevated cost pressure creates asymmetric downside risk if the company misses or guides conservatively. A convincing beat on revenue or profitability could lift the shares, but the weight of evidence points to a negative reaction. Risks include the possibility that cost inflation is already priced in and the stock rallies on a relief beat, or that a dividend announcement cushions the downside. The reference price of $14.16 reflects the most recent regular-session close on 28 September.
   Return: -3.56%; alpha: 3.16%.
3. JBL — confidence 66%. Jabil reports fiscal Q4 2026 earnings before the market opens on 30 September, placing the catalyst inside the window. Consensus expects revenue of approximately $9.69 billion, up 16.78% year-over-year, and adjusted EPS of roughly $4.06, up 23.38% year-over-year. The company has demonstrated strong execution in recent quarters, with Q3 revenue of about $8.8 billion beating the midpoint of guidance, and management has raised full-year revenue expectations to approximately $35 billion with core diluted EPS near $12.70. The stock has gained about 5.3% over the past week and closed at $318.93 on 28 September, reflecting positive momentum into the print. The consensus EPS estimate of $3.86 from one source and $4.06 from another suggests some dispersion, but the pre-earnings drift and strong sector demand for electronics manufacturing services support an upside bias. Risks include the stock's high absolute price level making it sensitive to any guidance disappointment, the possibility that a strong quarter is already priced in after the recent run-up, and macro pressure from rising yields. The reference price of $318.93 is the most recent regular-session close.
   Return: -5.83%; alpha: -6.23%.
4. CALM — confidence 64%. Cal-Maine Foods reports fiscal Q1 2027 earnings before the market opens on 30 September, inside the target window. The setup is deeply negative: consensus expects a loss of approximately $0.47 per share on revenue of roughly $588 million, representing a year-over-year revenue decline of about 30% and a swing from profitability to loss. Egg prices have weakened significantly from the peak reached during last year's tight supply environment, and the company faces persistent cost pressure. The stock has been volatile, trading at $67.36 after fluctuating between $66.70 and $68.20 on 29 September, and the weak pricing environment is well documented. A miss on revenue or a wider-than-expected loss would likely accelerate downside. The stock has a high dividend yield of about 7.1%, which may provide some support, but the fundamental deterioration in egg pricing is the dominant factor. Risks include a short squeeze if the loss is narrower than feared, or a surprise improvement in egg pricing. The reference price of $67.36 reflects the most recent regular-session close.
   Return: -1.57%; alpha: 1.17%.
5. NKE — confidence 60%. Nike reports fiscal Q1 2027 earnings after the market close on 1 October, which is after the window ends, but the anticipation of weak results is a powerful force during the window. The stock is trading at approximately $36.39, down from a high of $180 in late 2021, and sentiment is extremely bearish. Bank of America downgraded the stock and cut its price target from $47 to $30. Multiple other downgrades and cautious initiations have occurred since the last earnings report in July. Consensus expects EPS of $0.44, a year-over-year decline of about 11%, on revenue of approximately $11.32 billion, down about 3%. While Jefferies has a more optimistic view, forecasting $0.48 EPS and $11.5 billion in revenue, the weight of analyst sentiment is negative, and the stock's persistent downtrend creates continuation risk. Pre-earnings de-risking and short covering can generate sharp moves in either direction, but the fundamental trajectory and analyst positioning favour downside. Risks include a short squeeze if positive pre-announcements or channel checks emerge, or if the Jefferies bull case gains traction. The reference price of $36.39 reflects the most recent regular-session close on 28 September.
   Return: -0.84%; alpha: 0.45%.

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How models have done in Event Gaps

ForecastNest's own settled Event Gaps runs at this horizon, up to and including this one. Members' own research is not counted. Event Gaps forecasts must have been created during regular US market hours to enter these statistics. Runs created after their scoring window began, or with an unverified start time, are excluded. The chart is the average alpha vs SPY per run. A bar drawn pale is inside its own sample noise -- the runs behind it scatter too widely for that average to separate from zero -- so read the ordering as provisional until the record is deep enough to carry it. The table below adds how many of the five picks beat SPY, which is a steadier measure on a short record because it counts several picks a run rather than one result.

Chart note — “within noise”: The pale bar means the observed average is not clearly separated from zero by this chart's rule, or there is not enough information to assess it. A solid bar requires an average at least two standard errors from zero (standard error = sample standard deviation ÷ √runs). Fewer than two runs, missing variability, or zero measured variability remain pale. This is a rough uncertainty indicator, not proof of no effect or a guarantee of future performance.

Model	Runs	Avg picks with positive alpha	Avg alpha vs SPY
DeepSeek	4	65.00%	+2.22%
Perplexity	3	40.00%	+1.31%
Muse Spark 1.1	4	60.00%	+1.26%
GPT-5.6 Sol	2	60.00%	+0.69%
Grok 4.5	4	55.00%	+0.53%
ChatGPT	1	60.00%	+0.50%
Gemini 1.5 Pro	3	53.33%	-0.01%
Claude Opus 5	1	40.00%	-0.25%
Gemini 3 Pro	1	40.00%	-0.27%
Claude Opus 5.5	2	40.00%	-0.32%
GPT-6	1	40.00%	-0.55%
Claude Sonnet 5.5	1	20.00%	-2.79%

View settlement prices

Symbol	Start	End	Source	Notes
CAG	14.20010000	13.69500000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CAG/history/
CALM	68.22000000	67.15000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CALM/history/
CCL	24.91240000	25.39500000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CCL/history/
CNXC	25.82500000	26.36000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CNXC/history/
FDS	268.60000000	265.95500000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FDS/history/
FICO	657.25000000	604.50000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FICO/history/
JBL	318.32000000	299.75000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/JBL/history/
JEF	47.46000000	45.76000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/JEF/history/
KMX	62.11000000	57.01000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/KMX/history/
MU	1072.60000000	1069.80500000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MU/history/
NKE	36.22970000	35.92500000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NKE/history/
SMMT	16.40000000	16.89000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SMMT/history/
SPY	765.10000000	768.12000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY/history/
SRRK	47.98000000	48.87000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SRRK/history/

Standard prompt event-gap-v10, SHA-256 cc5a8528a784e71303cda49a9b5e0483ed7affd339aa12603d5f25d73203e7f7. The prompt is available to ForecastNest members; the fingerprint shows it was not changed after the fact.

Calculation: event-gap-v3-window-direction.