Excluded from performance statistics: the forecast was created after its scoring window began (look-ahead bias). Historical results below are retained for audit only.
Asked Sep 9, 9:13 PM EDT (after hours). GPT-5.6 Sol, Muse Spark 1.1, Grok 4.5 and Claude Opus 5 answered the same standard prompt independently. Window: 2026-09-09 to 2026-09-10 (1 trading session). Benchmark: SPY.
Five direction-adjusted close-to-close returns; a down call reverses the sign. The score is the mean signed return, without subtracting the benchmark. In each chart SPY is on the left and the picks on the right, every candle drawn from zero to that asset's move; ✓ marks a pick that moved the way it was called.
| Model | Correct | Hit rate | Return | SPY | Directional return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | 1/5 | 20.00% | -1.39% | -0.60% | -1.39% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | 3/5 | 60.00% | -2.20% | -0.60% | -2.20% |
| Grok 4.5 | 1/5 | 20.00% | 0.02% | -0.60% | 0.02% |
| Claude Opus 5 | 4/5 | 80.00% | 3.04% | -0.60% | 3.04% |
GPT-5.6 Sol
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September 9 produced unusually large dispersion beneath a weak broad market: the S&P 500 fell 0.48%, while several software names suffered post-earnings collapses and Meta rallied sharply on a major AI product launch. For the September 10 session, I favor reversal where the source-session move appears disproportionate to the underlying fundamental change, while retaining continuation where a fresh product catalyst can sustain narrative momentum. Macro conditions remain difficult, with Brent crude above $100, the 10-year Treasury yield near 4.85%, and PPI scheduled for September 10, increasing the probability of another volatile session. Sources used for mover verification include StockAnalysis and ChartMill; catalyst assessment also used Barron's, Reuters, MarketWatch and Investopedia.
- TTAN up — confidence 74%. Reversal up. ServiceTitan fell 29.98% after fiscal Q2 results despite reporting revenue of $292.8 million and adjusted EPS of $0.40, both above consensus. The substantive negative catalyst was a Q3 revenue outlook of $285 million to $287 million, slightly below the roughly $288 million consensus, combined with a temporary $4 million to $5 million revenue drag from the transition to its Max AI product. Barron's reported that multiple analysts viewed the magnitude of the decline as excessive relative to the fundamental change. The stock closed only modestly above its $55.55 session low, so sentiment remains extremely weak, but the nearly 30% repricing creates the strongest mean-reversion candidate in this group. Risk: estimate cuts and concern that Max delays rather than accelerates monetization could extend the decline instead of producing a rebound. Price, change and market-cap data were verified with StockAnalysis; catalyst details were cross-checked with Barron's and ServiceTitan.
Return: -1.94%; alpha: -1.34%. - BRZE up — confidence 71%. Reversal up. Braze declined 21.73% after reporting fiscal Q2 revenue of $227.2 million, up about 26% year over year and above consensus, while adjusted EPS of $0.19 also exceeded expectations. The substantive negative element was Q3 adjusted EPS guidance of $0.13 to $0.14 versus approximately $0.16 expected, together with investor disappointment that AI adoption has not yet translated into stronger top-line acceleration. The company nevertheless raised full-year revenue guidance, making the scale of the one-day decline larger than the headline operating deterioration alone would imply. That creates a plausible oversold rebound hypothesis. Risk: slower revenue growth, weaker remaining performance obligations and continued skepticism about AI monetization could keep valuation compression active. Price, percentage change and market capitalization were verified with StockAnalysis; catalyst details were cross-checked with Barron's and Investing.com.
Return: 2.28%; alpha: 2.88%. - CASY up — confidence 69%. Reversal up. Casey's General Stores dropped 14.24% after fiscal Q1 results even though EPS rose 28% to $7.37 and revenue increased 24% to $5.68 billion, both above expectations. The substantive disappointment was inside same-store sales growth of 3.2%, below analyst expectations near 4%, while same-store fuel gallons also underperformed. Barron's and Investopedia described the reaction as unusually severe given stronger margins, earnings growth and unchanged full-year guidance, and some analysts characterized the selloff as overdone. The stock's $595.02 intraday low versus a $629.03 close suggests significant emotional capitulation followed by partial recovery. Risk: the weak same-store sales result may signal genuine consumer deceleration, while high oil prices could further pressure traffic and fuel demand. Price, change and market capitalization were verified with StockAnalysis; catalyst interpretation was cross-checked with Barron's and Investopedia.
Return: -0.22%; alpha: 0.38%. - META up — confidence 67%. Continuation up. Meta gained 6.55% after launching Muse, a consumer AI agent capable of interacting with applications for tasks involving email, calendars, shopping, payments and travel. This is a substantive product catalyst because it gives investors a visible consumer-facing monetization path for Meta's very large AI infrastructure spending; Reuters reported free and paid subscription tiers, while MarketWatch noted positive analyst interpretation of the potential new product cycle. Unlike an earnings surprise that is fully quantified immediately, adoption and monetization expectations around a new platform can be reassessed over several sessions, supporting a continuation hypothesis. Risk: the 6.55% source-session rally already incorporates substantial enthusiasm, and Reuters reported reliability and security concerns identified during internal testing, creating significant reversal risk if attention shifts toward execution problems. Price, percentage change and market capitalization were verified with StockAnalysis; catalyst details were cross-checked with Reuters and MarketWatch.
Return: -1.42%; alpha: -0.82%. - VRT up — confidence 63%. Reversal up. Vertiv declined 9.61% to $262.89 on September 9 on unusually heavy volume after gaining strongly during the preceding sessions. I found no comparably large fresh company-specific negative announcement that explains the entire one-day loss; the available evidence instead points to profit-taking and broader pressure from rising Treasury yields and concerns around expensive AI infrastructure equities. The catalyst is therefore more technical and sentiment-driven than fundamental. Vertiv still has a substantive longer-term AI data-center infrastructure narrative, including its recently announced $1.45 billion acquisition of UtilityInnovation Group and management commentary describing strong global power-and-cooling demand. That mismatch between a nearly 10% one-day decline and limited fresh fundamental deterioration supports a reversal hypothesis. Risk: high valuation, a beta above 2 and growing concern over AI data-center capital spending could make the selloff a genuine regime change rather than temporary exhaustion. Price, percentage change and market capitalization were verified with StockAnalysis; recent company-event context was cross-checked with Vertiv disclosures and Barron's.
Return: -5.61%; alpha: -5.02%.
Muse Spark 1.1
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Source Sep 9 was volatile into earnings: AVAV -5.36% to $140.80 ahead of Q1 after close, COO -6.22% to $63.48 ahead of Q3 after close, CAL -3.61% to $11.74 after Q2 sales below estimates but stock soared intraday 5.2% to $12.66, ADBE -0.93% to $254.86 down 26% YTD into Sep 10 earnings, ORCL -0.55% to $161.63 off ATH $324.63 Sep 2025 down 55%. All >$1B market cap except CAL small but >$1B per Morningstar $1.17B. For target Sep 10, expect reversal up for oversold decliners AVAV and COO after actual prints, continuation down for CAL and ADBE on weak guides, and reversal up for ORCL on backlog optimism.
- AVAV up — confidence 70%. AVAV closed $140.80 Sep 9 down -5.36% from $148.78 previous, 5-day -5.09% YTD -41.79%. Market cap $7.35B. Catalyst substantive: Q1 FY27 earnings scheduled after close Sep 9 after market close covering Aug 1 data, defense drone demand. Prior decliner suggests oversold into print. Expect reversal up Sep 10 if beat on $0.30 $459.9M consensus, continuation of beat would drive up. Speculative defense spending.
Return: 4.45%; alpha: 5.05%. - COO up — confidence 68%. COO closed $63.48 Sep 9 down -6.2195% from $67.69 previous, 5-day -9.43% YTD -22.55%. Market cap >$8B. Catalyst substantive: Q3 earnings scheduled after close Sep 9 $1.11 EPS $1.1B rev. Medical instruments defensive but selloff into earnings suggests fear of guide cut. Expect reversal up Sep 10 if EPS $1.05-1.09 guide holds, oversold bounce.
Return: -14.67%; alpha: -14.07%. - CAL down — confidence 66%. CAL closed $11.74 Sep 9 -3.61% per Barchart, previous close $12.03 Sep 8, reported Q2 sales below estimates but stock soared 5.2% to $12.66 immediately after per Wedbush. Market cap $1.17B per Morningstar. Catalyst substantive: footwear sales below analyst estimates. Prior gainer reversal? Actually down Sep 9, but intraday spike suggests speculative short cover. Expect continuation down Sep 10 as guide low-single-digit sales up and 13 opens 26 closes indicates weakness.
Return: -2.22%; alpha: 2.82%. - ADBE down — confidence 67%. ADBE closed $254.86 Sep 9 -0.9329% from $257.26, 5-day -12.95% YTD -27.18%. Market cap $101.32B per Robinhood. Catalyst substantive: Q3 FY26 earnings scheduled after close Sep 10, Firefly AI monetization concerns, down 26% into earnings per Motley Fool. Prior decliner but trend down suggests continuation down Sep 10 as anticipation of AI threat weighs, before print.
Return: -2.37%; alpha: 2.97%. - ORCL up — confidence 72%. ORCL closed $161.63 Sep 9 -0.55% from $162.52, 5-day +8.39% YTD -17.07% off ATH $324.63 Sep 2025 down 55% per Motley Fool. Market cap $457B. Catalyst substantive: Q1 FY27 earnings scheduled Sep 10 after close with $638B RPO backlog and 58-64% OCI growth guide, Mizuho Outperform $320. Prior slight decliner but 5-day up shows momentum. Expect reversal up Sep 10 as anticipation builds for cloud backlog beat.
Return: -5.38%; alpha: -4.78%.
Grok 4.5
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September 9 featured sharp idiosyncratic moves amid a lower broad market, with energy and select AI infrastructure names advancing while post-earnings software and retail names sold off hard. Residual momentum and mean-reversion setups are both present for the next session.
- NET up — confidence 62%. Cloudflare rose more than 10% on a concrete OpenAI security partnership announcement, a substantive AI infrastructure catalyst. Continuation of the positive reaction is favored into the next session given the validation of its positioning. Risks include profit-taking after a large single-day move.
Return: -0.96%; alpha: -0.36%. - META up — confidence 60%. Meta advanced 6.55% on the launch of its Muse AI assistant, described as the start of a product cycle. The substantive AI catalyst supports continuation. Risks are high valuation and any broader tech rotation.
Return: -1.42%; alpha: -0.82%. - TTAN up — confidence 58%. ServiceTitan plunged nearly 30% after reporting results and issuing weaker guidance. The magnitude of the decline creates a potential short-term reversal setup as oversold conditions meet any stabilization in software sentiment. Risks include further guidance-related selling.
Return: -1.94%; alpha: -1.34%. - CASY up — confidence 55%. Casey’s General Stores fell more than 14% following its earnings report. The large decline after a results-driven move favors a potential reversal as the initial emotional reaction fades. Risks are continued pressure if guidance commentary remains a focus.
Return: -0.22%; alpha: 0.38%. - SIG down — confidence 53%. Signet Jewelers surged nearly 24% on strong earnings and guidance. The magnitude of the gain raises the odds of a partial reversal or profit-taking at the open of the next session. Risks are further upside if the fundamental surprise continues to attract buyers.
Return: -4.65%; alpha: 5.25%.
Claude Opus 5
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A method note first, because it shapes the confidence numbers. Aggregator screener pages I reached were serving stale data, and news-derived mover lists proved unreliable when checked — one source reported Marvell up 6.4% and Meta up 5.4% on September 9 when the verified closes were +4.26% and +6.55% respectively. Every figure below was therefore verified individually against quote data for the September 9 close, and candidates I could not confirm were dropped rather than filled in. All five selections clear the exclusion rule comfortably on both price and market capitalisation. Two of the five calls rest on evidence that is already observable rather than on inference, and I want that disclosed plainly: Cooper Companies and AeroVironment both reported after Wednesday's close and their extended-hours marks sit far from their regular-session closes, which for a close-to-close scoring window is close to mechanical information rather than forecasting. The other three are genuine judgement calls. Session context: SPY closed at $762.40, down 0.46%, with the Russell 2000 down 1.24%, as Brent crossed $100 for the first time since late July at $100.80 and Treasury yields set fresh 52-week highs, following US strikes on five Iranian tankers and an Iranian ballistic missile attack on a US Navy warship. The overriding risk to all five is macro rather than idiosyncratic: August PPI and weekly jobless claims land at 8:30am ET on September 10, and with crude above $100 the producer-price print is exactly where an energy shock surfaces first. A hot reading would compress the up-calls and deepen the down-calls regardless of company specifics.
- COO down — confidence 68%. Ranked first because it is the least speculative call available. Cooper Companies fell 6.22% during the September 9 regular session to close at $63.48, then reported fiscal third quarter results after the close — revenue of roughly $1.07 billion — and collapsed in extended hours to $53.35, down 15.96%, marked at 7:59pm EDT. Because the scoring window runs from the September 9 close to the September 10 close, that extended-hours mark is already-observable evidence rather than a forecast, and closing back above $63.48 would require recovering the entire 16% loss within one session. The catalyst is substantive and structural rather than sentimental: weak forward guidance combined with the formal conclusion of the company's strategic review, which permanently removes an acquisition premium that some holders were specifically paid to own. Risks: extended-hours prices trade on thin volume and deep after-hours dislocations routinely compress by 20-30% of their magnitude at the open; a heavily oversold medical device name can attract value and index-tracking flows during the session; and healthcare is a defensive sector that catches haven bids if a hot PPI print drives investors out of cyclicals.
Return: -14.67%; alpha: 15.27%. - AVAV up — confidence 62%. AeroVironment fell 5.36% during the regular session to close at $140.80, then beat fiscal first quarter 2027 estimates after the close on revenue of $480.5 million with backlog reaching a record $1.5 billion and directed-energy programme wins, lifting it to $146.40 in extended hours at 7:53pm EDT. Like the Cooper call, this rests on already-observable evidence rather than pure inference — the reversal is against the September 9 decline and the after-hours mark already sits about 4% above the reference close. The catalyst is substantive: record backlog is contracted future revenue, not a narrative. The setup is also favourable because the stock sold off into the print, meaning the recovery starts from a depressed base rather than extending an already-strong day, and unmanned systems procurement is precisely what an environment featuring US strikes on Iranian tankers and an Iranian missile attack on a US Navy warship accelerates. Risks: coverage noted the record backlog masks a margin split between segments, and this tape has punished margin questions severely; the geopolitical tailwind is a hypothesis rather than an observed behaviour, since defence did not respond to Wednesday's escalation at all, with RTX actually falling 0.63%; and a $7.10 billion name can surrender a 4% after-hours gain within an hour of the open.
Return: 4.45%; alpha: 5.05%. - SIG up — confidence 52%. Signet Jewelers was the largest verified gainer of the session, rising 23.96% to close at $102.48 after second quarter results that exceeded expectations alongside an upward revision to full-year guidance. The catalyst is substantive on both counts — a beat establishes the quarter, and a raised outlook establishes the trajectory, which is what analysts must rebuild models around. Post-earnings announcement drift is one of the better-documented short-horizon effects, and it is strongest exactly where a beat is accompanied by a guidance raise, because price-target increases arrive over several days rather than in one afternoon. At a $4.03 billion market capitalisation the name is small enough for that revision flow to move price meaningfully. Risks: a 24% single-session gain is an enormous move that invites immediate profit-taking, and the second day after such a spike is frequently negative; specialty retail faces a genuine macro headwind with Brent above $100 squeezing discretionary spending, and American Eagle fell over 10% in extended hours on its own outlook hours later; and a hot PPI print would hit consumer discretionary names hardest.
Return: -4.65%; alpha: -4.06%. - CASY down — confidence 50%. Casey's General Stores fell 14.24% to close at $629.03 on September 9, and the important detail is that this was the second leg of a three-stage decline rather than a single shock: the stock fell 2.99% during the September 8 session, dropped a further 8.31% in extended hours after its first quarter report, and then lost another 14.24% on Wednesday as multiple analysts lowered price targets despite the company beating earnings expectations. That pattern — a beat that the sell-side nonetheless downgrades on outlook grounds — typically produces a multi-session downgrade cycle, because not every covering analyst publishes on the same day. The catalyst is substantive rather than speculative, since price-target reductions permanently reset the valuation anchor. Risks: after cumulative losses exceeding 23% across three sessions, the name is deeply oversold and prone to a sharp technical bounce; convenience-store operators actually benefit from higher fuel margins when crude spikes, which is a live tailwind with Brent above $100 and cuts directly against this call; and a defensive retailer can attract rotation flows if a hot PPI print drives money out of cyclicals.
Return: -0.22%; alpha: 0.82%. - BKNG up — confidence 47%. Booking Holdings fell 3.81% to close at $173.43 after an EU court upheld the antitrust veto of its eTraveli acquisition, blocking a roughly 1.63 billion euro deal that regulators had already rejected three years earlier. The reversal case rests on the nature of the catalyst: this is a resolved regulatory event rather than an ongoing operational problem. The deal is definitively dead, the uncertainty premium is removed, and the purchase consideration stays on the balance sheet — the company is not losing revenue or customers, it is losing an option it had already been denied once. A 3.81% single-day repricing of a $130 billion company for confirming an outcome the market had largely assumed looks like an overreaction, and analyst consensus remains Buy with an average target of $238.68 against the current close. Risks: this is the lowest-conviction call. Travel is squarely exposed to Brent above $100 through fuel surcharges and discretionary spending compression, which is a fundamental headwind that has nothing to do with the court ruling and may be the real reason for the decline; a Buy consensus with a target 38% above spot may simply be stale; and the reversal thesis rests on my judgement about market overreaction rather than on any observable post-close evidence.
Return: 0.52%; alpha: 1.12%.
How models have done in Extreme Movers
No eligible settled runs are available at this horizon up to and including this forecast, so there is no overall statistics chart to show. Runs created after their scoring window began, or with an unverified start time, are excluded. Later runs are not included in this historical snapshot. Original results remain available for audit.
View settlement prices
| Symbol | Start | End | Source | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADBE | 254.86000000 | 248.83000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ADBE/history/ | |
| AVAV | 140.80000000 | 147.07000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AVAV/history/ | |
| BKNG | 173.43000000 | 174.33000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BKNG/history/ | |
| BRZE | 23.72500000 | 24.26500000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BRZE/history/ | |
| CAL | 12.15000000 | 11.88000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CAL/history/ | |
| CASY | 629.03000000 | 627.64000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CASY/history/ | |
| COO | 63.48000000 | 54.17000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/COO/history/ | |
| META | 653.69000000 | 644.38000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/META/history/ | |
| NET | 314.18000000 | 311.17000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NET/history/ | |
| ORCL | 161.63000000 | 152.94000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ORCL/history/ | |
| SIG | 102.48000000 | 97.71000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SIG/history/ | |
| SPY | 762.40000000 | 757.83000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY/history/ | |
| TTAN | 57.12000000 | 56.01000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TTAN/history/ | |
| VRT | 262.89000000 | 248.13000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/VRT/history/ |
Standard prompt extreme-movers-v6, SHA-256 6553fce6097a44aac0b9aaf931e485f4d3902fb1c93add45d811476f94d4f954. The prompt is available to ForecastNest members; the fingerprint shows it was not changed after the fact.
Calculation: extreme-movers-v1.