This is ForecastNest’s 1 day forecast for SOXL, created 2026-09-14 14:31 UTC. The window closed 2026-09-15 14:31 UTC, when SOXL closed at $104.11, up 0.9% from $103.21 when the forecast was made. It traded between $100.38 and $105.94 along the way (-2.7% to +2.6%).
Prediction window: Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.
Prediction time: 2026-09-14 14:31 UTC (9/14/2026, 10:31:43 AM EDT).
Valid until: 2026-09-15 14:31 UTC (9/15/2026, 10:31:43 AM EDT). Target session: 2026-09-15 (New York); During session. Lead time to expiry: 24 elapsed hours. Timing: Regular session. Based on stored prediction time, not verified model execution time.
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4 of the 6 models called a direction, and 0 of those calls were right. Each model is also asked to find the price it was forecasting from when it answers, shown as the dashed line inside its box in the picture below. All models except Claude Opus 5 and Claude Sonnet 4.5 found it accurately.
Below are the details.
| Model | Range | Move | Confidence | Price it found | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Opus 5 | $98.50–$121.00 | -11.3% to +9.0% | 45% | $111.00 | 5.1 | wrong |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | $92.00–$113.00 | -11.0% to +9.3% | 54% | $103.37 | 30.8 | wrong |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | $95.00–$112.00 | -8.2% to +8.2% | 65% | $103.50 | 51.8 | no call |
| Grok 4.5 | $95.00–$110.00 | -7.8% to +6.8% | 48% | $103.00 | 30.6 | wrong |
| Claude Sonnet 4.5 | $108.00–$116.00 | -3.5% to +3.7% | 65% | $111.91 | 5.6 | no call |
| GPT-6 | $90.00–$114.00 | -13.7% to +9.4% | 55% | $104.23 | 48.1 | wrong |
How these models have done on SOXL over 1 day
This forecast is settled and is included in the statistics below. The remaining records are forecasts created before 2026-09-14 14:31 UTC. Only settled directional calls count toward accuracy.
| Model | Asked | Still open | No call | Called up | Called down | Right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Sonnet 4.5 | 2 | — | 1 | 1 · 1 right | — | 100% (1/1) |
| Grok 4.5 | 9 | — | 0 | 7 · 6 right | 2 · 0 right | 67% (6/9) |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | 9 | — | 2 | 3 · 3 right | 4 · 1 right | 57% (4/7) |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | 2 | — | 0 | 1 · 1 right | 1 · 0 right | 50% (1/2) |
| Claude Opus 5 | 8 | — | 1 | — | 7 · 1 right | 14% (1/7) |
| GPT-6 | 1 | — | 0 | — | 1 · 0 right | 0% (0/1) |
Every published SOXL forecast these models made over 1 day before this question was asked, on 2026-09-14 14:31 UTC, plus this settled forecast. Forecasts created after this question are excluded. Results reflect the settlements available when this article is generated. A day-ahead call and a week-ahead one are counted separately — they are different questions. Only settled forecasts are graded, so open + no call + up + down adds up to asked. “No call” is a range too centred on the price to be pointing anywhere. Accuracy counts only forecasts that have settled, and the count behind it is shown beside it — a single right call is not a 100% record.
What each model said
Claude Opus 5
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) What I found, and where, and an important caveat: I could not retrieve a clean live SOXL tick and my anchor is derived rather than quoted. Investing.com's SOXL page gives a last price of 121.82 with a previous close of 115.76, which corresponds to Friday 11 September's close after a roughly 5.2% gain on the CPI-day rally (investing.com/etfs/direxion-dly-semiconductor-bull-3x). Several cached quote pages returned figures from earlier months that I have discarded as stale. For today's level I apply the observed semiconductor move to that close: Nvidia fell 2.4% premarket, Intel 5.6%, Marvell 6.3%, QQQ was down about 1.45% premarket, South Korea's Kospi fell 3.26% and SK Hynix 6%, with the Nasdaq Composite down 0.9% to 1.17% after the open (coindesk.com/markets/2026/09/14/bitcoin-climbs-to-usd78-000-as-crypto-sits-out-the-ai-selloff, thestreet.com, cnbc.com). A semiconductor index decline near 3% implies roughly 9% off a 3x fund, giving about $111. Treat that as an estimate, which is why data_access is 'partial'.
(2) Market regime: semiconductors are the epicentre of the shock, not a bystander. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei's weekend essay urging the industry to slow frontier model development, publicly backed by Sam Altman and Elon Musk, attacks the capital expenditure assumption that underwrites chip demand more directly than it attacks anything else in the market (Reuters via investing.com, WSJ via investrade.com). The selling spread across chips, optical, data centres, neo-clouds and power names. This lands on a sector already weakening: Morgan Stanley has flagged deteriorating DRAM demand with building inventory and pricing pressure and oversupply in NAND, and SOXX saw $393 million of outflows in the week to 7 September including $259 million in a single session, among its worst days since launch per Bloomberg (benzinga.com). The VIX is up 12.7% (A55Markets via cryptonews.com). Note also the structural point specific to this instrument: SOXL resets 3x exposure daily, so in a high-volatility, direction-changing tape it bleeds value relative to 3x the index's cumulative move.
(3) Price range: anchored at $111 with a downside skew. SOXL's realised daily volatility is extreme, and Barchart has previously logged its implied volatility above 120%; with a semiconductor index daily sigma of roughly 2.5% to 3% in a shock regime, the fund's daily sigma runs near 8% to 9%. I am using about -11% to +9%, giving $98.50 to $121.00, which covers roughly one standard deviation with extra room below. The reference levels are Friday's $121.82 close as the upper anchor, which would require a full round trip to reach, and the pre-CPI $115.76 close as the first overhead marker. The asymmetry reflects that the capex narrative damage is qualitative and not resolved by a single session.
(4) Catalysts inside the window: no semiconductor earnings. Micron's fiscal fourth-quarter report falls in the week of 23 September, outside this window. Monday's US calendar is effectively empty, so the rest of today is flow and headline driven. Tuesday 15 September brings August retail sales, Empire State manufacturing and industrial production at 8:30 and 9:15 ET, all inside the window, with Empire State carrying some read-through to hardware orders. The FOMC decision, dot plot and press conference are Wednesday 16 September, outside it. The live variable is commentary: further executive or regulatory statements on AI pacing, and any hyperscaler capex guidance, would move this faster than macro data.
(5) Strongest counter-argument: the market has bought every AI scare this year within a session or two, and President Trump publicly dismissed the warnings on competitiveness grounds, which removes the regulatory teeth. Tech is also splitting rather than collapsing, with software shares higher while hardware falls, and Rumble jumped 10.7% on a reported $13.7 billion compute agreement, which is evidence that datacentre demand is still being contracted rather than cancelled (coindesk.com live blog). The broader tape is orderly, with the Dow down under 0.3% and the Russell 2000 up 0.45%. Most of all, a large part of the decline printed before this window opened, so I am forecasting continuation rather than the shock. A recovery through $121.82 would invalidate the lean; a failure to hold the high $90s would confirm it.
(6) Why 45%: deliberately low, and the lowest I have assigned. The dominant source of error is not the direction but the anchor itself, which I computed from an observed index move rather than retrieved as a quote, so an error of two or three percent in my estimate of the semiconductor decline becomes six to nine percent in SOXL. Add a fund whose daily sigma is near 9% and whose 3x daily reset makes the path matter as much as the endpoint, and both the level and the range carry real uncertainty. Stating 45% is more useful here than a confident number I could not support.
Muse Spark 1.1
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Finnhub reports DIREX DAIL SEMI BU 3X ET-USD SOXL Current Price $103.3695, Open $101.53, High $105.3399, Low $99.87, Previous Close $121.82, Change -18.45 -15.14%. Stockmarketloop verified signal Sep 14 8:49 AM CDT shows $104.65 -14.10% with relative volume 0.4x and 20-session average 77.9M. Kraken delayed quote Sep 14 5:50AM shows $122.26 with previous close $115.71 and day range $117.88-$124.50. Bybit tokenized reports $101.96 Sep 14 with low $102.42 high $121.87. Stock Rover Sep 13 report shows $121.82 +5.23% Friday close, net assets $19,312M, 1-year +326.1%. IV Rank: 30-day implied vol 104.7% 1-year percentile 37 per apexvol Sep 14.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: Sharp bearish reversal for 3x semiconductor bull. After +326% YoY run and 189.8% increase per Marketbeat, SOXL is experiencing -14% intraday unwind Sep 14 morning. Beta 5.93 indicates extreme sensitivity to rates and semis. Macro headwinds: Brent $106-109 spike and 10Y near 4.86% and Fed hike odds 58-86% into Sep 15-16 FOMC hurting high-multiple semis, with bond yields and energy prices ratcheting higher per Morning Market Brief. Regime is risk-off rotation from growth to energy/financials.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to $103.37 Finnhub current. Using day range $99.87-$105.34 and previous close $121.82, with 3x leverage daily move ~3x SOXX. Implied vol 104.7% suggests daily sigma ~6-7% for 3x product. Lower bound $92 captures further breakdown toward $99.87 low extension and -20% from prior close if semis weakness accelerates, upper bound $113 captures bounce toward $105 high plus retracement to $115.71 previous close area. More room below than above? Actually symmetric slightly bearish: $92 (-11%) vs $113 (+9%) from $103.37, skewed down reflecting -14% momentum.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: 1-day window Sep 14 14:31 UTC covers Sep 15 regular session, first day of FOMC Sep 15-16. Semiconductor-specific catalysts: broad market tech selloff, NVDA/AMD moves, and yield moves. No SOXL distribution scheduled. Oil shock and Fed meeting start will drive risk appetite. Low relative volume 0.4x per stockmarketloop suggests potential volatility expansion in NY open.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: Bull case: oversold bounce after -14% drop could trigger short covering in semis, especially if yields ease or Fed dovish leak. SOXL 3x nature means snap-back rallies are violent; prior Friday +5.23% shows capacity for quick reversal. Invalidation: 4h close above $115.71 previous close with expanding volume and SOXX strength would negate bearish 1d view; close below $92 would extend downtrend toward $85.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Confidence 54% because live price confirmed Sep 14 morning from two sources after baseline, but direction over 24h for 3x leveraged product is extremely noisy with 104% IV. Fed week and oil spike add uncertainty. Honest moderate-low confidence appropriate, leaning bearish due to -15% intraday print and rate headwinds, but acknowledging high variance of 3x ETFs.
Gemini 1.5 Pro
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) Data sources: I accessed real-time market data via Google Search, placing SOXL at $103.50 as of 14:31 UTC on September 14, 2026, down roughly 15% from its previous close. I also sourced macroeconomic and sector context from Morningstar and Seeking Alpha.
(2) Market regime: The market is in a severe risk-off phase for technology. A sudden call by prominent AI leaders to temporarily slow advanced model development has triggered a harsh valuation reset for semiconductors. This is compounded by rising Treasury yields and surging oil prices ahead of the FOMC meeting.
(3) Price range: I project a 24-hour range of $95.00-$112.00. Given SOXL's 3x leverage, the heavy distribution phase could easily break the psychological $100 support level if panic persists. The upper bound accounts for a potential dead-cat bounce if intraday sellers become exhausted.
(4) Scheduled catalysts: The immediate 24-hour window will be driven by the market digesting the AI safety narrative and aggressive defensive repositioning ahead of the highly anticipated FOMC interest rate decision on September 15-16.
(5) The strongest counter-argument: The sharp 15% drop may be a knee-jerk overreaction. Any reassurance from mega-cap tech companies that AI infrastructure capex remains intact, or a sudden dip in Treasury yields, could trigger violent short-covering, pushing SOXL back above $115.
(6) Confidence: My confidence is 65%. While the fundamental narrative is heavily skewed to the downside today, 3x leveraged ETFs exhibit extreme volatility, making massive mean-reversion bounces a constant risk following steep intraday declines.
Grok 4.5
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Live session data from FT.com (~$102.53), ChartExchange (~$104.18), Investing.com (~$100-$103), MarketWatch premarket and early trade, Barchart (~$103.48), and related feeds place SOXL near $103 as of the 14:31 UTC window start. Previous close was $121.82 on September 11; the ETF is down roughly 15% on the day.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: SOXL is experiencing a sharp leveraged drawdown driven by the broader semiconductor and AI-related selloff following weekend commentary from Anthropic and OpenAI executives urging a slowdown in frontier AI development. Chip stocks and related 3x bull products are the clear session underperformers amid elevated Fed-hike odds and risk-off equity flows.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored at $103, the $95-$110 band reflects the elevated realized volatility typical of a 3x leveraged semiconductor product on a high-impact down day. Downside allows further extension of the intraday decline; upside is constrained near early-session recovery attempts without a clear catalyst for short-covering.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: No major semiconductor-specific earnings or data releases fall inside the immediate 24-hour window. Positioning ahead of the September 15-16 FOMC meeting and any further AI or chip-sector headlines will dominate near-term price action.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: A sharp short-covering bounce if AI concerns fade or if broader risk assets stabilize could push SOXL back above $110. A decisive break and hold below $95 would confirm deeper leveraged pressure beyond the stated range.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Confidence is moderate at 48% because the directional pressure from the AI/semiconductor selloff is clear and already reflected in price, yet 3x leveraged products can reverse sharply intraday and the 1-day window retains elevated noise around unresolved macro event risk.
Claude Sonnet 4.5
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) What I found: SOXL closed Friday September 11 at $115.76, down 8.03% on the session (Barchart). The ETF then gapped sharply lower in premarket trading on Monday September 14, with a premarket print of $102.94, down 15.5% from the prior close, according to Eastmoney. The opening bell saw a partial recovery to $112.30, with an intraday high of $115.05 and a low of $111.29. At 10:31 ET, SOXL was quoted at $111.91, up 0.51% from the premarket level but still well below Friday's close (lbkrs.com). The 52-week range spans $23.98 to $302.00, highlighting the extreme volatility of this 3x leveraged product (Barchart).
(2) Current market regime: A broad risk-off session is underway, driven by a rare joint warning from Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, and xAI leadership calling for a slowdown in frontier AI model development for safety reasons (MarketScreener, TipRanks). Altman confirmed OpenAI would not pursue an IPO in 2026. This triggered a global semiconductor selloff: Marvell Technology fell 8% premarket, Intel and Micron dropped 6%, Broadcom lost 3.9%, and Nvidia shed 2.5%. ASML fell 6% in Europe, and Asian chip giants SK Hynix and Samsung dropped 6.4% and 4.1% respectively. Compounding the pressure, Brent crude surged above $107 per barrel after Saudi Arabia shut its East-West pipeline following drone attacks, and the 10-year Treasury yield sits near 4.97% ahead of Wednesday's FOMC decision, where markets price an 88.5% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike (TipRanks).
(3) Price range justification: I am anchoring to $111.91, the SOXL level at the 10:31 ET window start. The immediate support zone is $111.29 (the session low) and $110.00 (a psychological round number). Below that, the premarket low of $102.62 represents a deeper floor if the selloff intensifies. On the upside, resistance sits at $115.05 (the session high) and $117.00 (a level that capped a prior bounce). The 1-hour ATR is elevated, reflecting the 3x leverage and the ongoing headline-driven volatility. Given the bearish macro backdrop and the unresolved AI safety narrative, I expect SOXL to spend more time in the lower half of this range, with $108-$116 covering the likely session extremes.
(4) Catalysts inside the window: The primary catalyst is the ongoing AI safety narrative and any follow-up headlines from AI lab executives or analysts reassessing semiconductor demand. The Middle East situation remains fluid, with any further escalation in the Strait of Hormuz or additional pipeline disruptions capable of spooking risk assets further. On the Fed front, no U.S. economic data is scheduled for September 14, but positioning ahead of Wednesday's FOMC decision will influence flows. There is no earnings release for SOXL's underlying holdings that would provide a positive counterweight.
(5) Counter-argument and invalidation: The strongest counter-argument is that the AI slowdown warnings may be a headline-driven overreaction rather than a fundamental shift in semiconductor demand. If institutional buyers step in to defend the $110 level and SOXL reclaims $115.05 on rising volume, the bearish short-term thesis would weaken considerably. Additionally, the AI safety calls could be interpreted as a medium-term positive for responsible AI development, potentially reducing regulatory risk. A de-escalation in the Middle East or a dovish leak ahead of the Fed could also spark a sharp reversal in oversold chip names. My call would be invalidated by a sustained break above $117.00.
(6) Confidence: I am at 65% because the directional evidence is clear - the AI safety shock, oil spike, and pre-FOMC caution all argue for continued weakness in leveraged semiconductor exposure. However, SOXL's extreme volatility means a single headline or a wave of dip-buying could produce a violent intraday reversal. The window is only one session, and with no major data release, positioning flow and Treasury yields will dominate. The bearish case is stronger than the bullish case, but the 3x leverage cuts both ways.
GPT-6
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) Price and access: Stock Analysis displayed SOXL at $104.23 on September 14 at 10:20 EDT, equivalent to 14:20 UTC, eleven minutes before the requested baseline. I use that retrieved quote as my estimate for 14:31 UTC, not a verified exact-minute price. The page reports a $101.53 open, $99.87-$104.98 session range and $121.82 previous close. No retrieved market observation was conclusively timestamped at or after the baseline, so access is partial. [SOXL quote](https://stockanalysis.com/etf/soxl/).
(2) Market regime: SOXL had rebounded from its opening low but remained approximately 14.4% below Friday's close. Reuters attributes semiconductor weakness to calls from leading AI executives for slower development, creating uncertainty around investment demand. My inference is a modest bearish bias after the rebound, rather than assuming the already-realized decline will repeat. [Reuters semiconductor report](https://au.investing.com/news/economy-news/ai-warnings-knock-nasdaq-futures-pressure-tech-stocks-4640035).
(3) Range justification: The $90-$114 range covers September 14 at 14:31 UTC through September 15 at 14:31 UTC, allowing approximately 13.65% downside and 9.37% upside. The five completed sessions through September 11 had an average absolute closing move of approximately 6.07%, calculated from the historical series; Monday's roughly 14.4% decline demonstrates a larger current shock. Direxion targets 300% of the NYSE Semiconductor Index's daily return. Because this intraday-to-intraday window crosses a daily reset, its return need not equal exactly three times the index's return over the same window. [Price history](https://stockanalysis.com/etf/soxl/history/), [Direxion mandate](https://www.direxion.com/product/daily-semiconductor-bull-bear-3x-etfs).
(4) Catalysts: The September 15 Empire State Manufacturing Survey is scheduled at or shortly after 08:30 ET, approximately 12:30 UTC, inside the window. AI-company statements, semiconductor demand commentary and oil-driven changes in rate expectations could also move the sector. The September 16 Fed decision falls outside this forecast, although positioning ahead of it matters. [New York Fed schedule](https://www.newyorkfed.org/survey/empire/empiresurvey_overview), [Fed calendar](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/2026-september.htm), [Reuters macro report](https://au.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/shares-slip-in-asia-as-oil-climbs-rate-hikes-loom-4639617).
(5) Counterargument: The opening collapse may have priced in an overly severe reduction in AI spending, and the rebound already shows demand returning. Sustained progress above the retrieved $104.98 session high would weaken the bearish interpretation; reassuring investment commentary could accelerate that recovery. A renewed break below $99.87 would instead support the downside scenario. These are observed reference levels, not trading instructions.
(6) Confidence: The 55% figure is my subjective probability that the entire window's traded-price path remains within the proposed range, not a calibrated statistical interval or the probability of a negative ending return. Delayed baseline data, unusually large opening repricing, daily leverage resets and overnight headline risk limit confidence. The bearish preference is modest because a sharp rebound is plausible after such a large decline.
Read this comparison on ForecastNest, where it stays up to date if a score is ever recomputed.
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