This is ForecastNest’s 1 day forecast for IONQ, created 2026-09-14 14:35 UTC. The window closed 2026-09-15 14:35 UTC, when IONQ closed at $37.63, down 0.5% from $37.81 when the forecast was made. It traded between $36.26 and $38.56 along the way (-4.1% to +2.0%).
Prediction window: Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.
Prediction time: 2026-09-14 14:35 UTC (9/14/2026, 10:35:09 AM EDT).
Valid until: 2026-09-15 14:35 UTC (9/15/2026, 10:35:09 AM EDT). Target session: 2026-09-15 (New York); During session. Lead time to expiry: 24 elapsed hours. Timing: Regular session. Based on stored prediction time, not verified model execution time.
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5 of the 6 models called a direction, and 1 of those calls were right. Each model is also asked to find the price it was forecasting from when it answers, shown as the dashed line inside its box in the picture below. All models except Claude Opus 5, Muse Spark 1.1, Grok 4.5, and Claude Sonnet 4.5 found it accurately.
Below are the details.
| Model | Range | Move | Confidence | Price it found | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Opus 5 | $32.40–$38.30 | -9.0% to +7.6% | 45% | $35.60 | 13.5 | wrong |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | $37.50–$44.00 | -8.7% to +7.2% | 52% | $41.06 | 9.3 | wrong |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | $36.50–$39.50 | -3.4% to +4.5% | 70% | $37.80 | 31.3 | wrong |
| Grok 4.5 | $35.50–$39.00 | -5.1% to +4.3% | 38% | $37.40 | 71.5 | right |
| Claude Sonnet 4.5 | $34.00–$37.50 | -4.2% to +5.6% | 62% | $35.50 | 6.4 | wrong |
| GPT-6 | $34.72–$41.00 | -8.3% to +8.3% | 60% | $37.86 | 51.5 | no call |
How these models have done on IONQ over 1 day
This forecast is settled and is included in the statistics below. The remaining records are forecasts created before 2026-09-14 14:35 UTC. Only settled directional calls count toward accuracy.
| Model | Asked | Still open | No call | Called up | Called down | Right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-6 | 3 | — | 2 | 1 · 1 right | — | 100% (1/1) |
| Grok 4.5 | 10 | — | 1 | 7 · 4 right | 2 · 1 right | 56% (5/9) |
| Claude Sonnet 4.5 | 2 | — | 0 | 2 · 1 right | — | 50% (1/2) |
| Claude Opus 5 | 10 | — | 1 | — | 9 · 3 right | 33% (3/9) |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | 9 | — | 2 | 4 · 1 right | 3 · 1 right | 29% (2/7) |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | 3 | — | 2 | — | 1 · 0 right | 0% (0/1) |
Every published IONQ forecast these models made over 1 day before this question was asked, on 2026-09-14 14:35 UTC, plus this settled forecast. Forecasts created after this question are excluded. Results reflect the settlements available when this article is generated. A day-ahead call and a week-ahead one are counted separately — they are different questions. Only settled forecasts are graded, so open + no call + up + down adds up to asked. “No call” is a range too centred on the price to be pointing anywhere. Accuracy counts only forecasts that have settled, and the count behind it is shown beside it — a single right call is not a 100% record.
What each model said
Claude Opus 5
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) What I found, and where, with a caveat on the anchor: I could not retrieve a live intraday IONQ tick, so this figure is derived. CNN's quote page shows a recent close of $36.75, with the stock down $0.09 or 0.24% and a $0.13 rise after hours (cnn.com/markets/stocks/IONQ). Morningstar shows a $38.14 close on 9 September and a $36.94 post-trading mark on 10 September with a $36.79 to $38.34 day range (morningstar.com/stocks/xnys/ionq/quote). For today, a TipRanks headline carried on CNN's quantum pages is timestamped 5:56am ET and reads that quantum stocks slid 3% in premarket as AI safety concerns hit tech. Applying roughly a 3% decline to the $36.75 close gives about $35.60, which is my anchor. Treat it as an estimate, which is why data_access is 'partial' rather than 'live'.
(2) Market regime: a high-duration speculative name being hit by three separate pressures at once. The macro layer is hostile to anything valued on distant cash flows, with Treasury yields at 52-week highs, the 10-year pressing 5%, and CME-implied odds of a hike at Wednesday's FOMC near 88% after hot August core CPI; TipRanks has previously run pieces explicitly attributing quantum-sector declines to rising yields. The sentiment layer is today's shock, with Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei's weekend call to slow frontier AI development, backed by Sam Altman and Elon Musk, dragging the whole speculative technology complex lower (Reuters via investing.com). The company-specific layer is the most interesting: IonQ raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $450-460 million on 8 September following the $1.8 billion SkyWater acquisition and launched its Superion 256 platform, yet the stock fell 5.8% to 6% after its 9 September analyst day, Mizuho cut its projected level, and on 10 September the US awarded $300 million to D-Wave, Rigetti and Quantinuum with IonQ not among the named recipients (TipRanks headlines via cnn.com, stocktitan.net, finance.yahoo.com). The result is a stock down from roughly $42 in late August and $39.52 on 5 September to the mid-$36s, at a price-to-sales multiple Yahoo puts at 80.7x, with analyst targets spanning $35 to $100.
(3) Price range: anchored at $35.60 with a downside tilt. IONQ's realised daily volatility is high even by speculative-growth standards; the sector has repeatedly printed moves of 5% to 10% in a session, including a 10%-plus rally on 8 September and a 6% to 8% basket unwind on 24 August. I am using a daily sigma near 7%, giving about -9% to +7.5%, or $32.40 to $38.30. The reference marks are the $36.79 recent intraday low and the $38.14 close of 9 September above, and the $35 bottom of the analyst target range below, which is roughly where the stock sits now and where dip-buying has historically appeared.
(4) Catalysts inside the window: no scheduled company events. IonQ's second-quarter results are long past and its analyst day was 9 September, so the near-term company calendar is empty. Tuesday 15 September brings August retail sales, Empire State manufacturing and industrial production at 8:30 and 9:15 ET, inside the window; the FOMC decision and dot plot are Wednesday 16 September, outside it. The realistic movers here are unscheduled: this sector trades almost entirely on headlines, and a government funding announcement, a contract disclosure, a competitor result or a rating change can produce a double-digit move with no warning. That headline sensitivity cuts both ways and is the main reason my directional lean is mild rather than firm.
(5) Strongest counter-argument: the bad news may already be priced. The stock has fallen roughly 15% from its late-August level, the analyst-day disappointment and the omission from the $300 million award are both several sessions old, and the fundamental news flow in the past week was actually positive, with raised guidance, a new platform launch and Jefferies raising its target to $80 while B. Riley described a path to $1 billion in annualised revenue. Quantum names have a documented tendency to rebound violently from exactly this kind of correlated basket selloff, and President Trump publicly dismissed the AI slowdown warnings, which removes some of today's overhang. A reclaim of $38 would invalidate the lean; a break below the mid-$34s on volume would confirm it.
(6) Why 45%: the honest number given two compounding uncertainties. The anchor is derived from a close plus a premarket sector percentage rather than a retrieved quote, so the starting point itself could be a percent or two off. On top of that, this is a stock whose daily distribution has fat tails in both directions and which moves on headlines I cannot anticipate. The directional evidence is real but modest, and the range is wide precisely because the volatility is. I would rather state 45% than imply precision the inputs do not support.
Muse Spark 1.1
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Barchart snapshot shows IONQ : 41.06 (-8.47%) alongside QBTS 18.68 (-8.39%) and RGTI 16.37 (-8.60%) on Sep 14, indicating broad quantum selloff, QTUM -2.35%. CoinGecko tokenized IONQON reports CA$49.17 Sep 14 -4.0%, CA$51.01 Sep 13 +0.4%, and $35.79 -2.70% today per Metamask table. Stockopedia delayed quote says $36.75 as of 21:23 UTC with -21.89% 365 days underperforming SPY by -32.83%. FinancialContent lists Price $38.71. Motley Fool notes IONQ raised full-year revenue outlook by ~60% to $450-460M and signed $8.18M quantum-safe networking deal with Congruity360, with price $40.14 +1.57% on that news day.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: Bearish momentum for quantum basket. Beta 3.35 for IONQ.WS warrants per Finnhub, indicating high sensitivity to rates. With Brent $106-109 and 10Y ~4.86% and Fed hike odds 58-86% into Sep 15-16, high-beta unprofitable tech under pressure. Quantum peers down 8-9% today, showing sector-wide de-risking after Q2 2026 earnings divergence noted by MarketBeat Aug 19. Tokenized price down 10.9% past week from $40.17 to $35.79.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to $41.06 Barchart live print. Using tokenized range $35.79-$40.17 past week and CAD range CA$49-53. High beta suggests daily move 6-8%. Set lower bound $37.50 near Stockopedia $36.75 and FinancialContent $38.71 support, upper bound $44.00 near recent $40-41 bounce plus 7% upside if quantum short covering. More room below than above reflects -8.47% intraday momentum and sector downtrend.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: 1-day window Sep 14 14:35 UTC to Sep 15 covers pre-FOMC positioning. No IONQ earnings inside window; Q2 earnings already reported. Catalysts are macro: oil spike, yield move, and quantum sector sympathy with QBTS and RGTI. Potential news on quantum-safe networking deals or revenue guidance follow-through could support, but no calendar event scheduled.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: Bull case: revenue outlook raised 60% to $450-460M per Motley Fool provides fundamental floor; oversold bounce after -8.5% drop could produce intraday reversal toward $44 if yields ease. Invalidation: daily close above $44.50 with volume and QTUM strength would negate bearish 1d view; close below $37.50 would accelerate toward $35.79 tokenized low.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Confidence 52% reflects live price from Barchart dated Sep 14 but dispersion across sources $35.79 to $41.06 indicates fragmented tokenized vs primary listing and delayed quotes. High beta and Fed week add uncertainty. Direction over 24h is noisy for high-volatility quantum name. Labeling live because Barchart print is after baseline and confirms -8.47% move, but low confidence due to spread in quotes.
Gemini 1.5 Pro
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) Data sources: I retrieved live pricing data via Google Search indicating IONQ was trading at $37.80 as of 14:35 UTC on September 14, 2026. I also reviewed recent news coverage from The Motley Fool and Investing.com regarding IonQ's September 8 Investor Day and raised 2026 revenue guidance.
(2) Market regime: The stock is currently in a post-catalyst consolidation phase. After popping above $44 following a raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $450-$460 million (largely driven by the SkyWater acquisition) and a new $8.18 million quantum security deal, shares have drifted lower for three consecutive sessions. The market is digesting the acquisition-heavy nature of the guidance raise amid a broader tech sector that is trading defensively ahead of the mid-September FOMC meeting.
(3) Price range justification: I project a 24-hour range of $36.50-$39.50. The stock established a clear short-term floor near $36.30 to $36.75 late last week, providing solid support. However, upside momentum has stalled, and heavy resistance now sits around $39.50 to $40.00, keeping near-term price action constrained in a tightening band.
(4) Scheduled catalysts: There are no major company-specific catalysts expected within the 1-day window, as the company just concluded its Investor Day last week. Price action will largely be dictated by macroeconomic sentiment and positioning in high-beta growth stocks ahead of Wednesday's expected Federal Reserve interest rate decision.
(5) The strongest counter-argument: The primary risk to this sideways consolidation is a sudden "buy the dip" resurgence from institutional investors who favor the newly announced SkyWater synergy and Congruity360 deal. A sudden influx of volume could push the stock aggressively back above the $40.00 psychological level, breaking the current short-term downtrend.
(6) Confidence: My confidence is 70%. The technical setup shows a clear cooling of momentum following a "sell the news" reaction to Investor Day, making a tight, range-bound consolidation highly probable over the next 24 hours while the broader market waits for macroeconomic clarity.
Grok 4.5
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Live session quotes from StockScan (~$37.46), Stocknear (~$37.64), StockAnalysis (~$37.27-$37.57), TradeSmith (~$37.81), ChartExchange (~$37.24), and MarketWatch place IONQ near $37.40 as of the 14:35 UTC window start. Previous close was $36.75 on September 11; the stock is modestly higher in early trade after opening near $35.16.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: IonQ is a high-beta quantum-computing name that has been consolidating after a multi-month drawdown. Broader risk assets face pressure from AI-sector concerns and elevated Fed-hike odds, yet IONQ is showing relative resilience today with a modest rebound. Speculative tech remains sensitive to rates and risk sentiment ahead of the September 16 FOMC decision.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored at $37.40, the $35.50-$39.00 band reflects recent daily ranges of roughly $1.50-$3.00 and typical volatility for this name. Downside allows a retest of the session low near $35; upside is limited near recent resistance without a clear catalyst, producing a balanced short-term range.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: No company-specific earnings or major announcements fall inside the immediate 24-hour window. Near-term price action is likely driven by broader equity risk sentiment and positioning ahead of the FOMC meeting.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: A sharp risk-on rebound in speculative tech or positive quantum-sector headlines could push IONQ above $39. Conversely, a decisive break below $35.50 on broader market weakness would confirm further downside pressure.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Confidence is low-to-moderate at 38% because the 1-day window sits inside an already-active session with elevated macro uncertainty, the stock has been volatile, and directional edge is limited relative to normal noise in high-beta names.
Claude Sonnet 4.5
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) What I found: IONQ closed Friday September 11 at $36.75, down 0.24% on the session and down 9.75% over the past week (eToro). The stock gapped lower in premarket trading on Monday September 14, with quotes of $35.47 (down 3.48%) at 5:24 AM ET (cnyes.com), $35.55 (down 3.29%) on Kraken, and $35.34 on BingX tokenized trading. The 52-week range spans $18.77 to $84.48, and the beta is 2.98 (eToro). Analyst consensus is Strong Buy with an average projected level of $69.25, and the stock carries a market cap of approximately $14.89 billion (StockAnalysis.com, eToro).
(2) Current market regime: A broad risk-off session is underway, driven by two major shocks. First, a rare joint warning from Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, and xAI leadership calling for a slowdown in frontier AI development for safety reasons triggered a sharp selloff in technology and semiconductor names. Second, Brent crude surged above $107 per barrel after Saudi Arabia shut its East-West pipeline following drone attacks (MarketScreener). S&P 500 futures are down roughly 0.5% and Nasdaq-100 futures down approximately 1.1% (Benzinga). The 10-year Treasury yield sits near 4.99%, approaching the 5% threshold for the first time since 2007, and markets price an 87-90% probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting (TradingEconomics, TradingView).
(3) Price range justification: I am anchoring to $35.50 as the approximate level where IONQ was trading near the 14:35 UTC window start. The immediate support zone is $35.00-$35.50, where the stock has found premarket bids. Below that, $34.00 represents a structural floor based on the September 10 low of $36.79 and the premarket gap trajectory. On the upside, resistance sits at $36.75 (Friday's close) and $37.50 (the September 11 intraday high zone). Given the bearish macro backdrop and the stock's high beta to tech sentiment, I expect IONQ to spend more time in the lower half of this range, with $34.00-$37.50 covering the likely session extremes.
(4) Catalysts inside the window: The primary catalyst is the start of the 2026 IEEE Quantum Week in Toronto, where IonQ announced it will present nine peer-reviewed papers and participate in seven events, including a keynote address and technical workshops (Business Wire, September 14). Notably, four of IonQ's accepted papers received QCE26 Best Paper Awards, a rare distinction at the field's flagship conference. This is a positive idiosyncratic catalyst that could provide a counterweight to the broader tech selloff. However, there is no major U.S. economic data scheduled for September 14, and positioning ahead of Wednesday's FOMC decision will dominate flows.
(5) Counter-argument and invalidation: The strongest counter-argument is that the IEEE Quantum Week catalyst is a scientific and reputational event rather than a commercial one, and it may not be sufficient to offset the macro-driven selloff. However, if institutional buyers step in to defend the $35.00 level and IONQ reclaims $36.75 on rising volume, the bearish short-term thesis would weaken considerably. Additionally, the company raised its 2026 revenue guidance to $450-460 million on September 8 following the SkyWater acquisition, and Jefferies raised its projected level to $80 on September 9 (TipRanks). A de-escalation in the Middle East or a dovish leak ahead of the Fed could also spark a sharp reversal. My call would be invalidated by a sustained break above $37.50.
(6) Confidence: I am at 62% because the directional evidence is clear - the AI safety shock, oil spike, and pre-FOMC caution all argue for continued weakness in high-beta technology names. However, IONQ's extreme volatility (beta of 2.98) means a single headline or a wave of dip-buying could produce a violent intraday reversal. The IEEE Quantum Week Best Paper Awards provide a legitimate positive catalyst that could attract fundamental buyers. The window is only one session, and with no major data release, positioning flow and Treasury yields will dominate.
GPT-6
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) Price evidence: Google Finance displayed $37.86 at 14:28:37 UTC on September 14, before the requested 14:35 UTC baseline. This is my baseline estimate, not a verified trade at the exact starting time. The reported opening price was $35.16 and the session range was $35.00-$38.04, showing a substantial opening reversal. Source: [Google Finance](https://www.google.com/finance/quote/IONQ:NYSE).
(2) Market regime: The opening recovery supports a mildly bullish immediate signal, but broader technology weakness and rising oil prices create competing valuation and inflation pressures. My inference is that quantum enthusiasm can temporarily offset those pressures without establishing a dependable one-day direction. IonQ's September 8 revenue guidance of $450-460 million supports its commercialization narrative, but includes acquired SkyWater revenue and should not be interpreted as entirely organic growth. Sources: [Reuters market report](https://au.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/shares-slip-in-asia-as-oil-climbs-rate-hikes-loom-4639617), [IonQ guidance filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1824920/000119312526384388/ionq-ex99_1.htm).
(3) Range construction: My $34.72-$41.00 range is deliberately symmetric around $37.86 because the one-day directional evidence is inconclusive. The five completed sessions through September 11 had an average true range of approximately $2.28, calculated from published daily highs, lows and previous closes; September 14 had already spanned $3.04. The forecast allows more movement than that recent daily average, including overnight risk. The observed $35.00 low and $38.04 high are immediate reference points, with September 8's $40.47 close marking a higher recovery reference. Source: [Stock Analysis price history](https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/ionq/history/).
(4) Catalysts: The September 15 Empire State Manufacturing Survey is scheduled shortly after 12:30 UTC, inside the forecast window ending at 14:35 UTC. A growth surprise could change Treasury yields and speculative-equity sentiment. The Federal Reserve meeting begins September 15, but its September 16 decision falls outside this window. I found no confirmed IonQ earnings release within the window. Sources: [New York Fed survey schedule](https://www.newyorkfed.org/survey/empire/empiresurvey_overview), [Federal Reserve calendar](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/2026-september.htm), [IonQ events](https://investors.ionq.com/events-and-presentations/default.aspx).
(5) Counterargument and invalidation: The strongest challenge to neutrality is that the opening reversal may begin sustained momentum following IonQ's commercialization announcements. Persistent strength beyond $38.04, followed by recovery toward $40.47, would favor a bullish interpretation. Conversely, renewed weakness below the observed $35.00 low would favor a bearish interpretation. Neither development is assumed to have occurred. Company execution and financing remain material uncertainties: IonQ reported a second-quarter adjusted EBITDA loss of $120.3 million. Source: [IonQ second-quarter results](https://www.ionq.com/news/ionq-announces-record-second-quarter-2026-revenues-growing-287-yoy).
(6) Confidence: The 60% figure is my subjective, uncalibrated probability that the price remains within the stated range during the forecast window; it is not a probability of an increase. Confidence is limited by the missing exact-baseline trade, unusually large intraday movement, and competing company and macroeconomic signals. Longer-horizon signals remain neutral because these observations do not establish a sufficiently reliable directional advantage.
Read this comparison on ForecastNest, where it stays up to date if a score is ever recomputed.
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