This is ForecastNest’s 1 day forecast for SOXL, created 2026-09-03 22:04 UTC. The window closed 2026-09-04 20:00 UTC, when SOXL closed at $117.52, up 10.0% from $106.82 when the forecast was made. It traded between $109.75 and $118.18 along the way (+2.7% to +10.6%).
Prediction window: Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.
Prediction time: 2026-09-03 22:04 UTC (9/3/2026, 6:04:59 PM EDT).
Valid until: 2026-09-04 20:00 UTC (9/4/2026, 4:00:00 PM EDT). Target session: 2026-09-04 (New York); Session close. Lead time to expiry: 21.92 elapsed hours. Timing: After close. Based on stored prediction time, not verified model execution time.
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3 of the 4 models called a direction, and 2 of those calls were right. Each model is also asked to find the price it was forecasting from when it answers, shown as the dashed line inside its box in the picture below. All models except DeepSeek-R1 found it accurately.
Below are the details.
| Model | Range | Move | Confidence | Price it found | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Luna | $99.00–$114.50 | -7.2% to +7.3% | 73% | $106.73 | 50.0 | no call |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | $95.00–$118.00 | -10.5% to +11.2% | 60% | $106.13 | 80.3 | right |
| Grok 4.5 | $97.00–$117.00 | -9.1% to +9.6% | 38% | $106.74 | 77.6 | right |
| DeepSeek-R1 | $133.00–$149.00 | -5.8% to +5.5% | 50% | $141.24 | 0.1 | wrong |
How these models have done on SOXL over 1 day
This forecast is settled and is included in the statistics below. The remaining records are forecasts created before 2026-09-03 22:04 UTC. Only settled directional calls count toward accuracy.
| Model | Asked | Still open | No call | Called up | Called down | Right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grok 4.5 | 5 | — | 0 | 4 · 3 right | 1 · 0 right | 60% (3/5) |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | 5 | — | 0 | 1 · 1 right | 4 · 1 right | 40% (2/5) |
| GPT-5.6 Luna | 5 | — | 1 | 1 · 0 right | 3 · 1 right | 25% (1/4) |
| DeepSeek-R1 | 5 | — | 0 | 2 · 1 right | 3 · 0 right | 20% (1/5) |
Every published SOXL forecast these models made over 1 day before this question was asked, on 2026-09-03 22:04 UTC, plus this settled forecast. Forecasts created after this question are excluded. Results reflect the settlements available when this article is generated. A day-ahead call and a week-ahead one are counted separately — they are different questions. Only settled forecasts are graded, so open + no call + up + down adds up to asked. “No call” is a range too centred on the price to be pointing anywhere. Accuracy counts only forecasts that have settled, and the count behind it is shown beside it — a single right call is not a 100% record.
What each model said
GPT-5.6 Luna
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) Market regime: SOXL closed the September 3 regular session at $106.81, up about 0.43%, after trading as low as $98.62 and as high as $107.49. Investing.com subsequently reported an after-hours price of $106.73 at 21:08 UTC, which is after the requested window start and therefore provides the live anchor. Source: Investing.com and StatMuse. ([Investing.com Nigeria][1])
(2) Technical synthesis: The rebound from the $98.62 intraday low was substantial, but the technical picture remains mixed. Investing.com shows short-term moving averages turning positive while the 50-day moving average remains around $111, and the daily technical summary remains Strong Sell; RSI is approximately 48, while MACD remains negative. SOXL's extreme leverage makes these conflicting signals especially sensitive to semiconductor-index moves. Source: Investing.com. ([Investing.com Nigeria][1])
(3) Price range: I estimate a one-day range of $99.00-$114.50 around the $106.73 reference price. The $99 area is anchored near today's sharp intraday low, while $111-$114.50 represents the next important recovery zone around the 50-day moving average and recent trading resistance. WallStreetNumbers reports an ATR around $14.21 and 10-day volatility around 80%, supporting a materially wider-than-normal range. ([Wall Street Numbers][2])
(4) Catalysts: The immediate catalyst is the August U.S. employment report due Friday, September 4, which can materially affect Treasury yields and high-beta technology shares. Semiconductor sentiment is also being shaped by Broadcom's earnings: Q3 revenue reached $29.59 billion and AI-semiconductor revenue $16.7 billion, but its Q4 revenue outlook disappointed investors and the shares fell sharply. Reuters reported that Nvidia rose while Broadcom declined following the results. Sources: Reuters, MarketWatch, and Investopedia. ([Reuters][3])
(5) Counter-argument: The strongest bullish argument is that semiconductor momentum can recover rapidly after a sharp washout, and today's SOXL session demonstrated that behavior by moving from below $99 to above $106. The strongest bearish argument is that Broadcom's post-earnings weakness indicates that very high AI expectations remain vulnerable to disappointment, while SOXL's 3x daily leverage magnifies moves in both directions. A renewed semiconductor-sector selloff would therefore invalidate the short-term constructive interpretation.
(6) Confidence: Confidence is 73%. The 4h signal is mildly bullish because today's recovery was strong and SOXL finished near the upper portion of its session range. I keep the 1d signal NEUTRAL because the stock remains below its 50-day average and the jobs report arrives immediately afterward; the 7d bias is mildly bearish because the broader technical structure remains damaged, while the 30d bias is mildly bullish because AI-chip demand remains a significant underlying semiconductor-sector driver.
Gemini 1.5 Pro
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) Data sourced from live financial market feeds confirms SOXL closed the regular trading session at $106.74 on Thursday, September 3, 2026, posting a modest gain. As of 22:04 UTC (18:04 EDT), the 3X leveraged ETF drifted slightly lower in after-hours trading, hovering near $106.13.
(2) The current market regime is characterized by low-conviction, pre-data consolidation. While the broader semiconductor sector managed a slight reprieve from early-week selling pressure, institutional participants are largely sitting on their hands, unwilling to commit heavy directional flow ahead of critical macroeconomic labor data.
(3) The price range of $95.00-$118.00 reflects the extreme structural volatility of a 3X leveraged product during a major macro event. The downside boundary allows for a rapid liquidation toward the mid-$90s support zone if selling resumes in earnest, while the upside target accommodates a leveraged short-covering squeeze.
(4) The dominant scheduled catalyst inside this 24-hour window is the release of the August US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday morning. This singular data point will heavily influence the Federal Reserve's near-term interest rate trajectory and drive immediate, high-volume directional flows in rate-sensitive tech and semiconductor equities.
(5) The strongest counter-argument to a neutral, range-bound forecast is the binary nature of the NFP report. If the data threads the needle with a
Grok 4.5
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Thursday 3 Sep 2026 close was $106.74 (up 0.37% from Wednesday’s $106.35), day range $98.62-$107.49, volume ~54M, per ChartMill, FT.com, Schwab and ChartExchange. After-hours held near $106.72. Prior closes: 2 Sep $106.35, 1 Sep $105.91.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: Modest positive close for the 3x leveraged semiconductor ETF amid a broader market rebound. Intraday volatility remained elevated with a wide range, consistent with the product’s high beta and recent swings in the semiconductor complex.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to the $106.74 Thursday close. Recent daily ranges of $6-15+ and extreme 3x leverage imply potential 1-day moves of 8-12% or more. Lower bound near $97 allows for a retest of the session low area; upper bound near $117 covers a stronger continuation. Range is modestly wider on the downside given residual sector pressure.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: No major semiconductor-specific events for Friday 4 Sep. Broader market follow-through from Thursday’s rebound and any overnight geopolitical or rate-related news remain the primary drivers for this high-beta product.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: Renewed risk-off pressure in tech/semis could push SOXL below $97; stronger risk appetite could drive a break above $117. Sustained trade outside the stated range on volume would overturn the mild bullish lean.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Live Thursday close is confirmed, yet 3x leveraged ETFs produce large path-dependent noise on single-day horizons; absence of stock-specific catalysts and recent sharp swings keep conviction moderate-to-low.
DeepSeek-R1
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) Current price and data sources: As of the forecast window start (2026-09-03 22:04 UTC), SOXL closed the regular session at $140.25 and was trading at $141.24 in after-hours, up approximately 0.70% from the close. The regular session saw a gain of 5.99% on the day, with a day range of $131.56-$143.92. Previous close was $132.33, and the 52-week range is $23.66-$302.00. I have anchored my range to $141.24, the after-hours quote as of window start. Note that pricing data varies across sources-another feed shows a close of $128.32 and after-hours of $127.65-but I have used the MSN Money quote as the most current and consistent with the 5.99% daily gain narrative.
(2) Current market regime: SOXL is in a sharp recovery rally after a brutal decline from its 52-week high of $302.00 set on June 21, 2026. The ETF had fallen from roughly $150 to near $87, a decline of over 40%, triggering extreme oversold conditions and a strong technical rebound. The September 3 rally of nearly 6% was driven by a 9% surge in the PHLX Semiconductor Index, with strength across memory chips, optical communications, and AI-related names. Samsung Electronics' semiconductor business reported Q2 profit growth of over 250x driven by AI chip demand, and UMC beat earnings estimates while raising capital spending to ~$5 billion. Korean retail investors continue to be a dominant force, holding 27.1% of SOXL's ~$19.3 billion market cap, with trading volume on September 1 reaching $453 million.
(3) Price range justification: I expect SOXL to trade between $133.00 and $149.00 over the next 1-day window. The lower bound of $133.00 is informed by the previous close of $132.33 and the $131.56 intraday low from September 3, with $130 acting as a psychological support level. The upper bound of $149.00 is informed by the $150 level that acted as resistance before the recent decline and the $149.63 resistance level identified by technical analysis. The range is asymmetric to the upside because the ETF is in a momentum-driven recovery with strong sector tailwinds, but the 3× leverage amplifies volatility in both directions.
(4) Scheduled catalysts inside the window: The immediate 1-day window (September 3 into September 4) includes the August nonfarm payrolls report due Friday morning, which is the last employment data before the September 16 FOMC meeting. Markets are pricing a 62-66% chance of a Fed rate hike on September 16. Additionally, Korean retail trading flows remain a significant intraday catalyst-on September 1 alone, Korean investors traded $453 million in SOXL, more than all other foreign stocks combined. The Blue Ocean ATS has suspended real-time quotes for SOXL to Korean brokerages as of September 1 due to SEC volume limits, which may reduce liquidity and increase volatility. Broadcom's earnings and commentary on semiconductor demand, reported on September 3, are also relevant.
(5) Strongest counter-argument: The rally could be a bear-market bounce within a broader downtrend. SOXL remains 53% below its 52-week high of $302.00, and the 50-day SMA sits at $197.31-far above the current price. The fund has a beta of 8.20 over 6 months, making it extremely sensitive to any market reversal. If the jobs report surprises to the upside and reinforces the hawkish Fed case, or if semiconductor stocks give back today's gains, SOXL could retest the $130 level or lower. A break below $133.00 would invalidate the bullish short-term view and flip the 1-day signal to bearish.
(6) Confidence rationale: My confidence is 50%, reflecting the extreme volatility of a 3× leveraged ETF and the binary nature of the upcoming jobs report. The technical rebound is real and supported by sector strength, but the ETF's 3× leverage means any adverse move in the underlying semiconductor index will be amplified. The 1-day window is too short for fundamentals to matter; it will be driven by the jobs data, Korean retail flow dynamics, and broader risk sentiment. I am more confident in the $133.00-$149.00 range than in the direction within it, and I acknowledge that a violent move in either direction is possible given the ETF's 8.20 beta and 30-day volatility.
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