This is ForecastNest’s 7 days forecast for SOXL, created 2026-08-29 22:21 UTC. The window closed 2026-09-08 20:00 UTC, when SOXL closed at $766.99, down 0.3% from $769.38 when the forecast was made. It traded between $759.48 and $774.03 along the way (-1.3% to +0.6%).
Prediction window: Existing Mode 1 horizon rules apply; the stored expiry is authoritative.
Prediction time: 2026-08-29 22:21 UTC (8/29/2026, 6:21:22 PM EDT).
Valid until: 2026-09-08 20:00 UTC (9/8/2026, 4:00:00 PM EDT). Target session: 2026-09-08 (New York); Session close. Lead time to expiry: 237.64 elapsed hours. Timing: Weekend / holiday. Based on stored prediction time, not verified model execution time.
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5 of the 5 models called a direction, and 5 of those calls were right.
Below are the details.
| Model | Range | Move | Confidence | Price it found | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ChatGPT — GPT-5 | $98.00–$120.00 | -87.3% to -84.4% | 74% | — | 82.9 | right |
| Grok | $95.00–$125.00 | -87.7% to -83.8% | 30% | — | 78.3 | right |
| Claude — Opus | $90.50–$129.00 | -88.2% to -83.2% | 50% | — | 80.1 | right |
| DeepSeek | $115.00–$135.00 | -85.1% to -82.5% | 62% | — | 81.7 | right |
| Gemini — Pro | $98.00–$118.00 | -87.3% to -84.7% | 60% | — | 81.5 | right |
How these models have done on SOXL over 7 days
This forecast is settled and is included in the statistics below. The remaining records are forecasts created before 2026-08-29 22:21 UTC. Only settled directional calls count toward accuracy.
| Model | Asked | Still open | No call | Called up | Called down | Right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ChatGPT — GPT-5 | 1 | — | 0 | — | 1 · 1 right | 100% (1/1) |
| Grok | 1 | — | 0 | — | 1 · 1 right | 100% (1/1) |
| Claude — Opus | 1 | — | 0 | — | 1 · 1 right | 100% (1/1) |
| DeepSeek | 1 | — | 0 | — | 1 · 1 right | 100% (1/1) |
| Gemini — Pro | 1 | — | 0 | — | 1 · 1 right | 100% (1/1) |
Every published SOXL forecast these models made over 7 days before this question was asked, on 2026-08-29 22:21 UTC, plus this settled forecast. Forecasts created after this question are excluded. Results reflect the settlements available when this article is generated. A day-ahead call and a week-ahead one are counted separately — they are different questions. Only settled forecasts are graded, so open + no call + up + down adds up to asked. “No call” is a range too centred on the price to be pointing anywhere. Accuracy counts only forecasts that have settled, and the count behind it is shown beside it — a single right call is not a 100% record.
What each model said
ChatGPT — GPT-5
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) What I found: Live market data through August 29 confirms SOXL closed August 28 at exactly the supplied $111.34 baseline. Investing.com reports an August 28 open of $119.92, high of $121.20, low of $110.21, volume of 61.0M and a 9.52% decline; StockAnalysis independently reports the same $111.34 close and 52-week range of $23.80-$302.00.
(2) Market regime: The short-term regime has turned sharply bearish after a failed post-Nvidia rebound. SOXL gained 5.53% on August 27 to $123.05, but surrendered that entire move and more on August 28. This reversal is important because Nvidia's strong earnings had initially produced a broad semiconductor rally, yet semiconductor shares subsequently weakened as higher Treasury yields and renewed expectations for a September Fed hike pressured high-beta technology. Reuters reported Nvidia's strong outlook on August 27, while Friday reporting showed technology stocks declining after the Jackson Hole policy signal.
(3) Price range: I anchor strictly to $111.34. The immediate structure is unusually volatile: Friday's $110.21 low and $121.20 high produced an almost 10% intraday span, and SOXL's 3x daily leverage makes large follow-through moves plausible. I therefore use $98-$120 for the seven-day range, with substantially more downside room than upside. The $110-$111 area is the immediate reference from Friday's close/low; a sustained break could expose the psychologically important $100 area. The upper boundary near $120 represents a recovery toward Friday's opening zone rather than an assumption that the August 27 rebound will immediately resume. The range is intentionally broad because SOXL has demonstrated extreme volatility during the current semiconductor correction.
(4) Catalysts: The next major catalyst cluster is U.S. labor and economic data during August 31-September 4. Kiplinger identifies JOLTS on Tuesday, ADP and factory orders on Wednesday, weekly jobless claims and services data on Thursday, and the August nonfarm-payrolls report on Friday as the week's major releases. These releases matter for SOXL because the market is already highly sensitive to interest-rate expectations. The semiconductor sector also remains directly sensitive to whether the Nvidia-driven AI-capex thesis continues to broaden beyond Nvidia itself; the August 28 reaction suggests that strong Nvidia results alone did not eliminate broader sector risk. Reuters reported Nvidia's August 27 rally and gains across several chipmakers, but Friday's technology reversal shows how quickly that catalyst can be overwhelmed by rates.
(5) Counter-argument: The strongest bullish counter-argument is that Friday's collapse could be an unusually sharp post-rally reset rather than the beginning of another sustained semiconductor leg lower. SOXL still has substantial exposure to leading AI semiconductor companies, and recent reporting shows continued strong investor interest in leveraged semiconductor ETFs. A stabilization in Treasury yields, softer employment data, or renewed strength in Nvidia and the semiconductor index would invalidate much of the bearish seven-day thesis and could bring SOXL back toward $120 or above. Conversely, continued weakness below Friday's $110.21 low would strengthen the downside regime and make the lower portion of the range increasingly relevant.
(6) Confidence: Confidence is 74% because the immediate evidence is unusually one-sided: SOXL lost 9.52% in one session on very high volume, reversed the entire prior day's 5.53% gain, and finished near its session low. The broader semiconductor backdrop is also conflicted despite strong Nvidia fundamentals, while higher-rate expectations are particularly unfavorable for a highly leveraged technology ETF. I do not use a higher confidence because SOXL can reverse violently when semiconductor leadership returns, and the coming employment data could rapidly change the rate narrative. The 30-day signal is therefore NEUTRAL rather than bearish, while the 180-day signal remains mildly bullish because the longer-term AI/semiconductor demand thesis has not been fundamentally broken.
Grok
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: MarketWatch, YCharts, FT, Investing.com and ChartExchange confirm SOXL closed Aug 28 at $111.34 (exactly the baseline), down 9.52% on the day with a range of $110.21-$121.20 and volume near 61M. The sharp drop followed a prior rebound after Nvidia’s strong Q2 results and guidance (US News, Barron’s, Business Insider, NextWeb reports of revenue beat and ~70% FY growth outlook). After-hours held near the close.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: High-volatility mean-reversion within a leveraged semiconductor ETF after a multi-session whipsaw. Nvidia-driven strength earlier in the week gave way to Friday profit-taking and broader rate-sensitivity pressure, leaving the short-term tape choppy and two-sided.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Range is measured from the $111.34 baseline and skewed mildly lower to reflect the recent downside momentum and 3x leverage amplification. Recent daily ranges of $10+ and elevated historical/implied volatility (AlphaQuery, OptiView data showing triple-digit annualized levels) support a wide 7-day band that accommodates both a partial recovery toward the mid-120s and a further probe of the low-100s/upper-90s.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: Early September labor data (JOLTS and the Sep 4 employment report) plus residual digestion of Nvidia’s guidance and Fed policy pricing are the primary near-term drivers; no major semiconductor-specific earnings cluster is scheduled for the immediate 7 days.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: A sustained bid in semiconductor names or softer labor data that eases rate-hike fears could push the upper half of the range; a decisive break below the recent $110 low on volume would confirm further downside and move price outside the stated band.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Confidence is low because SOXL’s extreme daily volatility and leverage make 7-day direction highly sensitive to overnight flows and macro prints rather than a stable trend; the weekend gap risk and mixed post-earnings reaction further limit conviction.
Claude — Opus
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) What I found, and where: The baseline is exact. StockAnalysis shows SOXL closing Friday, August 28 at $111.34, down $11.71 or -9.52%, with an after-hours print of $111.51 at 4:49 PM EDT. Investing.com corroborates the prior close at $123.05 and gives a 52-week range of $23.80-$302.00, with its own technical summary reading Strong Sell. Finviz captured the stock at $112.43 (-8.63%) mid-session. The scale of that move matters: the Nasdaq Composite fell only 0.52% Friday to 26,402.42 and the S&P 500 0.25% to 7,711.76 (Vista Partners, CNBC), so a -9.52% day in a 3x semiconductor fund implies the underlying NYSE Semiconductor index dropped roughly 3.2% - six times the Nasdaq's decline. This was a sector-specific rout on an otherwise quiet tape. Context: StockAnalysis's SOXX news feed notes the iShares Semiconductor ETF has entered bear market territory, more than 20% below its June record high.
(2) The current market regime as I read it: Rolling distribution in a sector that has lost its bid, now colliding with a hawkish rate repricing. Two independent forces are pushing the same way. First, the semiconductor complex is in a genuine drawdown - Fortune documented SOX falling 21% in July, its worst month since October 2008, with intraday swings above 2% on all 22 sessions, and the group never recovered its June highs. Second, Friday added a macro layer: Yahoo Finance and CNBC report Fed Chair Kevin Warsh used his first Jackson Hole keynote to stress that inflation is too high and price stability is the predominant focus, pushing September hike odds from roughly 35% to about 57% and the 10-year yield up 4bp to 4.72%. Semis are the longest-duration equity exposure in the index, so a hawkish shift hits them hardest. The most damning detail is the sequence: Nvidia delivered a blowout on August 26, SOXL spiked to $124.88 intraday on the 27th, and the sector still ended the week at $111.34. A group that cannot hold a gain on its best possible news is being sold into strength.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility I am using: SOXL's realized volatility is extreme and I will not pretend otherwise. Recent weekly closes run $120.59 (Aug 21) to $111.34 (Aug 28), a -7.7% week that contained an intraweek high of $124.88 and a Friday low near $110 - roughly a 13% peak-to-trough swing. Single sessions of -9.5%, -7.3% (August 10, per StockAnalysis) and -15% (documented by FXOpen earlier this year) are all within the recent record. A 7-day 1-sigma of 17-20% is realistic, not conservative. I set $90.50-$129.00, about -18.7% below and +15.9% above the baseline. The skew reflects the directional lean rather than a view that a crash is imminent; the widths on both sides are deliberately large because narrow bounds on a 3x fund in this regime would be false precision. Structurally, the market has already lost the levels chart-watchers were citing in July - Yahoo Finance's Jared Blikre flagged roughly 11,950 on SOX and 535 on SOXX as the line bulls needed to hold, and the subsequent move into bear-market territory says those did not hold.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: The window spans August 29 to September 5, covering the full August 31-September 4 trading week; Labor Day falls on Monday, September 7 this year, so no session is lost. The dominant macro event is the August employment report on Friday, September 4 - the first of two jobs prints before the September 16 FOMC, and with hike odds near 57% it carries unusual leverage over exactly the duration-sensitive names SOXL holds. ISM manufacturing and services land Tuesday and Thursday. Sector-specific, Broadcom and Marvell results fall in early September, extending the earnings cluster; CNBC's August 19 piece on Marvell muscling in on Broadcom's key Google customer suggests those prints will be read competitively rather than as a rising tide. Monday brings month-end rebalancing.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate my call: A -9.52% session is itself the best argument against extending the move. Leveraged funds that gap this hard routinely produce violent snapback weeks on short covering alone, and the fundamental picture is not broken - Nvidia's guidance two days earlier was emphatic about AI demand through next year, and Morgan Stanley has characterised this drawdown as a mid-cycle reset rather than a top. If the August jobs report comes in soft enough to push hike odds back below 40%, the duration pressure lifts and semis are the highest-beta beneficiary; my upper bound would then be tested quickly. My mild bearish read is invalidated by the sector reclaiming its Thursday close area on improving breadth - specifically memory names like Micron and Sandisk turning higher, since memory has been the loudest stress point throughout this decline. The bearish tail is a hot payroll print landing on a sector already in a bear market, which is how the -15% single sessions have historically occurred.
(6) Why my confidence is the number it is: 50% is the honest number. The evidence for continued weakness is real and multi-source - bear-market status, a hawkish Fed, a failed reaction to the sector's best catalyst - but the counterweight is mechanical and equally real: after a 9.5% single-day decline, the short-horizon distribution for a 3x product is close to symmetric because bounces of that magnitude are as common as continuations. My lean rests on trend and macro rather than on any edge about next week's data. I have declared 'live' access: SOXL's Friday close and after-hours print, the index closes, and the Warsh coverage all postdate the last session, and the baseline falls on a Saturday with no trading in between - though nothing I retrieved literally postdates 22:21 UTC on August 29. The 180d NEUTRAL is deliberate: over that horizon the AI capex thesis is genuinely contested, and daily-rebalance decay means a 3x fund can lose ground even if the underlying index finishes flat, so I have no defensible directional view.
DeepSeek
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) What I found, and where: I accessed current news and price data, but live streaming quotes were not directly available. The baseline is $111.34 as of 2026-08-29 22:21 UTC. News from August 24-28 indicates SOXL closed at $111.16 on August 24 and $120.63 on August 29 , suggesting a recovery from recent lows. South Korean retail investors poured $798M into SOXL in the week ending August 27, making it their top overseas stock purchase . This follows nearly $70B in global inflows over July and August .
(2) Market regime: SOXL is in a recovery bounce after a brutal -60% drawdown from its $302 peak in June . The 52-week range is $85.73-$301.01 , so current levels sit near the lower third of that band. The regime is mean-reverting upward with strong retail flow support, but volatility remains elevated (ATR ~48-56 points) . Large institutional inflows and extreme bearish sentiment from the prior drawdown suggest a short-term oversold bounce is underway, but the longer-term trend is still neutral/consolidation.
(3) Price range justification: With 4h ATR ~$48-56 and 7-day horizon, I expect a rally continuation toward resistance, but capped by the daily EMA50 and MA50 near $225-$230 - not reachable in 7 days. From the $111.34 baseline, a 1x-1.5x daily ATR move over 7 days (~$50-$75) is plausible given reduced daily moves. Key near-term resistance is $120.63 (recent quote) and $128-$130 (previous support from July 24 ). Support is $111.16 (recent low) and $101.89-$106 (August 3-10 lows ). I skew the range upward to $115.00-$135.00, which reflects a continuation of the bounce to test the mid-August consolidation zone, but not a full retracement of the 60% loss within one week.
(4) Catalysts: No scheduled earnings or major macro data inside the 7-day window (Aug 30 - Sep 5). However, AI capex durability is the overarching narrative ; any hyperscaler announcement or commentary on spending would move the ETF. The heavy options put/call ratio of 22.68 for November suggests hedging is priced for downside in the fall, but that is outside our 7-day window. Retail flow momentum (Korean and global) is the most immediate catalyst - continued inflows could fuel the short squeeze.
(5) Counter-argument and invalidation: The strongest bearish risk is that the bounce is a dead-cat trap in a still-bearish daily trend. The daily and weekly EMAs are heavily stacked bearishly (MA50 at $226, MA100 at $231, MA200 at $248) , and the RSI(14) at 42 is still on a sell signal as of August 21 . If price fails to hold above $111 and breaks below $106, the bullish case is invalidated and a revisit to $85-$90 is probable. Daily reset decay also erodes holding value in choppy markets .
(6) Confidence rationale: 62% confidence reflects the strong short-term bullish flow and oversold technical bounce - which are quite concrete - against the still-bearish longer-term technical backdrop and lack of a fundamental catalyst. The price range is intentionally wide (17% top-to-bottom) to accommodate the high volatility, and I explicitly state that the upside scenario is more probable within the window. If price holds above $120 and volume persists, confidence would increase materially.
Gemini — Pro
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) What I found, and where: Live market data from BNN Bloomberg, Barchart, and The Motley Fool as of August 28-29, 2026, confirms SOXL closed Friday at $111.34 after dropping 9.5%. The broader semiconductor sector sold off aggressively following a hawkish Jackson Hole speech by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, which raised the probability of a September rate hike to nearly 60% and pushed the 10-year Treasury yield up to 4.70%.
(2) Market regime: The market is currently in a volatile, rates-driven tech pullback regime. Despite exceptional recent earnings from industry leaders like Nvidia, the semiconductor sector is facing severe profit-taking and multiple compression as investors rapidly de-risk and adjust to a tighter monetary policy outlook.
(3) Price range justification: Measuring from the $111.34 baseline, I project a 7-day range of $98.00-$118.00. As a 3x leveraged ETF, SOXL routinely experiences double-digit percentage weekly moves. The range is skewed to the downside to reflect the immediate technical damage from Friday's selloff and the seasonal volatility typical of equities entering early September.
(4) Scheduled catalysts: The dominant catalysts inside this 7-day window are the major early-month economic data releases, most notably the ISM Manufacturing Index and the August US non-farm payrolls report scheduled for Friday, September 4. These prints will dictate whether the market fully prices in Warsh's signaled rate hike.
(5) Counter-argument: The strongest risk to the bearish downside is the underlying fundamental strength of the AI infrastructure cycle. If the upcoming labor data comes in significantly softer than expected, the market could quickly dismiss the Jackson Hole rate fears, sparking a rapid 'buy-the-dip' reflex that invalidates the downward skew and pushes SOXL back above $118.
(6) Confidence: My confidence is 60%. While the macroeconomic headwinds and rising yields present a clear negative drag on high-beta tech assets, forecasting a leveraged 3x ETF across the traditionally volatile late-August to early-September transition carries inherent unpredictability.
Read this comparison on ForecastNest, where it stays up to date if a score is ever recomputed.
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