This is ForecastNest’s 7 days forecast for SPY, created 2026-08-29 16:36 UTC. The window closed 2026-09-08 16:36 UTC, when SPY closed at $766.99, down 0.3% from $769.38 when the forecast was made. It traded between $759.48 and $774.03 along the way (-1.3% to +0.6%).
Prediction window: Existing Mode 1 horizon rules apply; the stored expiry is authoritative.
Prediction time: 2026-08-29 16:36 UTC (8/29/2026, 12:36:59 PM EDT).
Valid until: 2026-09-08 16:36 UTC (9/8/2026, 12:36:00 PM EDT). Target session: 2026-09-08 (New York); During session. Lead time to expiry: 239.98 elapsed hours. Timing: Weekend / holiday. Based on stored prediction time, not verified model execution time.
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5 of the 5 models called a direction, and 5 of those calls were right.
Below are the details.
| Model | Range | Move | Confidence | Price it found | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ChatGPT — GPT-5 | $744.00–$782.00 | -3.3% to +1.6% | 69% | — | 83.2 | right |
| Gemini — Pro | $750.00–$775.00 | -2.5% to +0.7% | 60% | — | 83.5 | right |
| DeepSeek | $752.00–$785.00 | -2.3% to +2.0% | 48% | — | 79.2 | right |
| Grok | $755.00–$782.00 | -1.9% to +1.6% | 28% | — | 77.3 | right |
| Claude — Opus | $746.30–$785.50 | -3.0% to +2.1% | 52% | — | 80.5 | right |
How these models have done on SPY over 7 days
This forecast is settled and is included in the statistics below. The remaining records are forecasts created before 2026-08-29 16:36 UTC. Only settled directional calls count toward accuracy.
| Model | Asked | Still open | No call | Called up | Called down | Right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ChatGPT — GPT-5 | 2 | — | 0 | — | 2 · 2 right | 100% (2/2) |
| DeepSeek | 2 | — | 0 | — | 2 · 2 right | 100% (2/2) |
| Gemini — Pro | 2 | — | 1 | — | 1 · 1 right | 100% (1/1) |
| Grok | 2 | — | 1 | — | 1 · 1 right | 100% (1/1) |
| Claude — Opus | 1 | — | 0 | — | 1 · 1 right | 100% (1/1) |
Every published SPY forecast these models made over 7 days before this question was asked, on 2026-08-29 16:36 UTC, plus this settled forecast. Forecasts created after this question are excluded. Results reflect the settlements available when this article is generated. A day-ahead call and a week-ahead one are counted separately — they are different questions. Only settled forecasts are graded, so open + no call + up + down adds up to asked. “No call” is a range too centred on the price to be pointing anywhere. Accuracy counts only forecasts that have settled, and the count behind it is shown beside it — a single right call is not a 100% record.
What each model said
ChatGPT — GPT-5
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) What I found: Live information through August 28 shows SPY finishing the week under pressure after a late-week shift in rate expectations. The S&P 500 fell 0.25% on August 28 to 7,711.76, while the Nasdaq fell 0.52%; for the week, however, the S&P 500 still gained about 0.5%. AP reports the index remains up 12.7% year-to-date. ([AP News][1])
(2) Market regime: The market is best described as a long-term bullish trend entering a short-term rate-driven consolidation/correction. Nvidia's strong earnings initially supported technology stocks, but that momentum was interrupted by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole message. Reuters reports that market-implied September rate-hike probability rose from 35.4% to 55.7%, while Treasury yields and the dollar rose and technology stocks underperformed. ([Reuters][2]) This makes the seven-day setup less favorable even though the underlying equity trend remains constructive.
(3) Price range: I anchor strictly to the supplied $769.38 baseline. The forecast range of $744-$782 gives substantially more downside room than upside room, reflecting the new rate-policy risk without assuming a major market breakdown. The lower portion corresponds to a roughly 3.3% decline from the baseline, while the upper bound allows roughly 1.6% upside. The asymmetry reflects my expectation that near-term rallies face resistance from higher yields, whereas a renewed rise in yields could produce a faster repricing of large-cap growth valuations. The actual SPY quote is consistent with the high-$760s area, so there is no material baseline discrepancy requiring adjustment.
(4) Catalysts: The most important catalyst already inside the window is the market's reaction to Warsh's Jackson Hole speech. The next seven days also include the transition into September and a series of U.S. labor and economic indicators that can alter expectations for the September FOMC meeting. The key issue is whether incoming inflation and employment data reinforce or reverse the market's newly increased probability of a September rate increase. Treasury yields are particularly important: MarketWatch reports the 10-year yield reached about 4.73% on August 28 after rising for three consecutive sessions. ([MarketWatch][3])
(5) Counter-argument: The strongest bullish counter-argument is that the S&P 500's long-term trend remains intact and the recent rate shock may already be partly reflected in prices. The index still gained about 0.5% for the week and is up 12.7% year-to-date, while Thursday's Nvidia-led rally demonstrated that strong corporate earnings can temporarily overwhelm rate concerns. ([AP News][1]) If Treasury yields stabilize or retreat and incoming economic data reduce expectations for a September hike, the seven-day bearish bias could quickly weaken and SPY could revisit the upper part of the recent range. A sustained deterioration in the broader index accompanied by another sharp rise in yields would instead strengthen the downside scenario.
(6) Confidence: Confidence is 69%. The short-term bearish evidence is stronger than it was earlier in the week because the Fed has introduced a concrete rates-related headwind, Treasury yields have moved sharply higher, and technology leadership weakened on Friday. ([Reuters][2]) However, the S&P 500 remains in a strong longer-term trend and the seven-day window contains uncertain economic data, so I do not assign high confidence to a sustained decline. The resulting structure is mildly bearish for 4h, 1d and 7d, neutral for 30d because the monetary-policy direction remains unresolved, and mildly bullish for 180d because the broader earnings/equity trend has not yet been technically or fundamentally broken.
Gemini — Pro
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) What I found, and where: Using live Google Search data (Fidelity, The Eastern Herald) from August 28-29, 2026, SPY closed Friday at $769.35, nearly identical to the $769.38 baseline. News indicates that while tech earnings (notably Nvidia's $96.22 billion revenue) supported the market earlier in the week, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a hawkish speech at Jackson Hole on Friday, pushing September rate hike odds to 48%.
(2) Market regime: The market is in a highly concentrated, tech-led bull regime that is suddenly encountering severe macroeconomic friction. The top five mega-caps dictate the index's direction, but the regime is now transitioning to a more defensive posture as interest rate expectations are rapidly repriced higher.
(3) Price range justification: Measuring from the $769.38 baseline, I project a 7-day price range of $750.00-$775.00. This range captures typical weekly volatility of roughly 1.5% to 2.5%. The bounds are skewed to the downside to account for the immediate negative reaction to the Fed's hawkish pivot, as higher Treasury yields typically pressure mega-cap technology valuations.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts: Within this 7-day window entering early September, the most critical scheduled catalysts are the ISM Manufacturing index and the August US non-farm payrolls report. These macroeconomic data releases will be heavily scrutinized to confirm or challenge the likelihood of a September rate hike.
(5) Counter-argument: The strongest counter-argument to a bearish tilt is the relentless momentum of the AI infrastructure cycle and strong corporate earnings. If upcoming labor data is softer than expected, market participants may quickly dismiss the Jackson Hole rate hike fears, allowing mega-cap tech to resume its rally and potentially push SPY above the $775 level, invalidating the downside skew.
(6) Confidence: My confidence is 60%. While the hawkish shift in central bank messaging is a clear headwind for equities, attempting to forecast a 7-day window that bridges the volatile transition into September requires navigating the conflict between robust corporate fundamentals and tightening monetary conditions.
DeepSeek
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) What I found and where: As of the 16:36 UTC baseline on Aug 29, I retrieved live market data from multiple sources. SPY closed at $769.35 on Aug 28, down 0.23% on the day. In after-hours trading, SPY was quoted at $773.96, up 0.11%. The primary catalyst was Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech on Aug 28, where he stated that inflation progress remains limited and that forward guidance is "no longer appropriate". FedWatch data showed September rate-hike odds surged from ~34% to ~57% following the speech. SPY saw a $3.82 billion outflow on Aug 27, while QQQ attracted $3.67 billion in inflows-a rotation from broad S&P 500 into Nasdaq. VIX fell to 14.13, near its lowest level of the year.
(2) Current market regime: The regime is one of post-Fed digestion with a hawkish overhang-but the market's reaction has been remarkably muted. Despite rate-hike odds jumping to 57%, SPY fell only 0.23%, and VIX dropped to 14.13, suggesting the market had already priced in much of the hawkish tone. The 4-hour chart shows consolidation around the $757.74-$769.42 zone, with SPY testing a key trendline support from the April lows. The daily timeframe is mildly bearish as technology (XLK -1.23%) underperformed Consumer Staples (+1.62%), indicating defensive rotation. However, the 180-day remains bullish given SPY's strong year-to-date performance and the broader uptrend.
(3) Price range justification: The range $752-$785 is measured from the $769.38 baseline and is roughly symmetric, reflecting the absence of a clear directional edge over the next 7 days. The lower bound of $752 sits just below the 50-day EMA support near $753 and the key trendline support at $757.74-a break below would open the door to a deeper correction toward $745-$750. The upper bound of $785 sits just above the measured upside target of $784 and the recent high of $779.37 from Aug 13. SPY's 30-day implied volatility of ~12.6% implies a 1-week expected move of roughly ±2.5-3%, or ~$19-23; my range of $33 (4.3%) is wider to accommodate the leveraged reaction to the upcoming jobs report and potential Fed repricing.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: The primary catalyst is the August nonfarm payrolls report due September 4-this will be the critical test for whether the market's hawkish repricing is justified. Consensus expects +58,000 jobs added, with unemployment holding at 4.1%. A strong print could push rate-hike odds above 60% and pressure SPY toward the lower end of the range; a weak print could reverse the hawkish repricing and spark a relief rally. Also on the calendar: ISM manufacturing PMI (Sept 1), auto sales, and ongoing Jackson Hole follow-through. No major earnings are scheduled within the window.
(5) Strongest counter-argument and invalidation: The bullish case is that the market has already digested the hawkish Fed shift-VIX at 14.13 and SPY holding above key support suggest the bad news is priced in. The $7 billion+ in recent inflows into QQQ and the ongoing AI-driven earnings momentum provide a fundamental floor. The counter is that rate-hike odds near 60% are a headwind, SPY outflows ($3.82B on Aug 27) signal institutional caution, and the September FOMC meeting on Sept 15-16 looms large. The call would be invalidated if SPY breaks above $779 on strong volume (signaling the bull trend is intact) or below $752 (signaling that the hawkish repricing is accelerating into a correction).
(6) Confidence attribution: Confidence is 48%-below 50% because the 7-day window contains a binary jobs report whose outcome is unpredictable, and the technical setup is contradictory: a bullish catalyst (post-Fed resilience, low VIX) versus bearish signals (outflows, defensive rotation, hawkish Fed). The signals are mixed across timeframes: 4h is neutral, 1d is mildly bearish, 7d is neutral, and 180d remains bullish. I assign roughly equal weight to the bullish and bearish scenarios, hence the neutral signals and symmetric range. The low confidence reflects the genuine uncertainty around the jobs data and the market's ability to sustain current levels with rate-hike odds rising.
Grok
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: MarketWatch, Macroaxis, FRED and ADVFN confirm SPY closed Aug 28 at $769.35-$769.38 (day range $768.31-$775.30), matching the baseline. S&P 500 finished at 7,711.76. Coverage from MUFG Research, InvestmentNews, Realtor.com, NYT and Reuters shows Fed Chair Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks raised September rate-hike odds to roughly 55-60% on CME FedWatch, prompting a mild Friday decline after earlier Nvidia-driven strength.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: Weekend consolidation after a modest risk-off reaction to higher policy-rate probabilities. The broader tape remains in a higher-range chop near recent highs, with no decisive trend into the new week.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Range is measured from the $769.38 baseline and kept roughly balanced because the 7-day window lacks a clear directional edge. Typical recent daily ranges of $5-10 and weekly moves of 1-2% produce the stated bounds, allowing for ordinary post-event digestion without assuming a breakout.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: Early-week labor data (JOLTS around Sep 1) and the Friday Sep 4 employment report are the main scheduled releases; residual reaction to the Jackson Hole message and any shifting rate-hike probabilities will also influence price.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: A softer-than-expected jobs print could reverse the hawkish re-pricing and push the upper half of the range, while a hot number could extend the mild downside; either outcome outside the band would simply confirm event-driven noise dominating any baseline view.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Confidence is low because the short window is dominated by upcoming data and residual policy uncertainty rather than a sustained technical or fundamental edge; weekend pricing adds further ambiguity until the open.
Claude — Opus
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) What I found, and where: The baseline reconciles cleanly. Vista Partners' August 28 weekly summary and CNBC both put the S&P 500's Friday close at 7,711.76, down 0.25%, with the Dow at 53,559.99 (-0.02%), the Nasdaq Composite at 26,402.42 (-0.52%), the Russell 2000 at 2,973.09 (-1.37%) and VIX at 14.35. Applying the SPY/SPX ratio implied by Thursday's quote gives a Friday SPY close near $769, so the $769.38 baseline is Friday's close and I have no anchor dispute. The driver was Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first Jackson Hole keynote: Yahoo Finance and CNBC report he said inflation was running too high and that price stability would be the Fed's predominant focus, while explicitly declining to offer forward guidance. Market-implied odds of a 25bp September hike jumped to roughly 57% from about 35% the prior day (Yahoo), with CNBC citing Kalshi at 48% intraday. The 10-year yield rose 4bp to 4.72% and the 30-year 2bp to 5.21%.
(2) The current market regime as I read it: Two-sided and internally inconsistent, which is why my directional lean is mild rather than firm. The constructive leg is genuine - Nvidia's blowout and a strong earnings season carried all three indexes to a positive week despite Jackson Hole, Iran sanctions and 30-year yields above 5.2%, and VIX closing at 14.35 says nobody is frightened. The cautionary leg is that the rate path has actually shifted: a market that had been leaning toward no move is now near a coin flip on a September hike, and the Russell's -1.37% against a flat Dow is a textbook signal that higher-for-longer is being expressed first through the most rate-sensitive parts of the tape. Complacent volatility sitting on top of a repricing curve is an unstable pairing.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility I am using: With VIX at 14.35, one-week implied movement on the index is roughly 2%. Realized has been running hotter - the prior fortnight produced a 5.5% semiconductor drawdown, a 1%-plus down day on August 20 and a 1.5% Nasdaq day on August 27 - so I use a 1-sigma week of about 2.0-2.4% and widen the lower side for payroll risk. That gives $746.30-$785.50, roughly -3.0% and +2.1% from the baseline. The asymmetry is deliberate: implied volatility this low tends to understate downside gaps more than upside drift, and hike pricing near 57% has more room to move violently in one direction than the other. On the S&P, the 7,652.86 August 24 close marks the nearest area that has already absorbed heavy volume, while the week's high near 7,730 is what the market failed to hold on Friday.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: The window spans August 29 to September 5 and covers the full August 31-September 4 trading week - Labor Day falls on Monday, September 7 this year, so the week is not shortened. The dominant event is the August employment report on Friday, September 4, the first of two jobs prints before the September 16 FOMC and now the highest-leverage number on the calendar given where hike odds sit. ISM manufacturing and services land Tuesday and Thursday. Monday brings month-end rebalancing flow. Broadcom and Marvell results also fall in early September, extending the semiconductor earnings cluster that pre-Nvidia previews flagged as the sector's follow-through test.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate my call: The bull case is that Friday's decline was trivial - a quarter of a percent, on a week that finished green, with VIX actually falling 1.1% on the day - and that the market has now cleared both of its major overhangs, Nvidia and Jackson Hole, with the AI capex question answered emphatically. If early-September data runs cool on inflation and firm on growth, hike odds unwind and the index can make new highs, in which case my upper bound is too tight. My mild bearish read is invalidated by a soft August payroll print that pushes September hike odds back below 40%, or by the Russell recovering its Friday underperformance, which would indicate the rate repricing is being absorbed rather than spreading through the market. The tail risk in the other direction is a hot payroll number that takes hike odds toward 75% and forces a real volatility repricing off a 14 VIX base.
(6) Why my confidence is the number it is: 52% is deliberately close to a coin flip. The hawkish shift is documented and the direction of the rate repricing is unambiguous, and September carries genuine seasonal weakness, but a 0.25% down day inside an up week is thin evidence for a full week of decline, and the outcome hinges substantially on a jobs number that does not yet exist. On data access I have declared 'live': my sources are dated the evening of August 28, which is the most recent market state that exists, since the baseline falls on a Saturday with no trading in between - though the reader should note that nothing I retrieved literally postdates the 16:36 UTC baseline. The 30d MILD BEARISH rests on September seasonality colliding with a Fed that has just told the market it is not finished; the 180d MILD BULLISH rests on the earnings backdrop, with S&P 500 companies tracking roughly 50% quarterly earnings growth this season per Schwab's late-August update.
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