This is ForecastNest’s 1 day forecast for SPY, created 2026-09-09 02:18 UTC. The window closed 2026-09-09 20:00 UTC, when SPY closed at $762.39, down 0.5% from $765.99 when the forecast was made. It traded between $760.94 and $764.47 along the way (-0.7% to -0.2%).
Prediction window: Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.
Prediction time: 2026-09-09 02:18 UTC (9/8/2026, 10:18:03 PM EDT).
Valid until: 2026-09-09 20:00 UTC (9/9/2026, 4:00:00 PM EDT). Target session: 2026-09-09 (New York); Session close. Lead time to expiry: 17.7 elapsed hours. Timing: Overnight. Based on stored prediction time, not verified model execution time.
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3 of the 7 models called a direction, and 3 of those calls were right. Each model is also asked to find the price it was forecasting from when it answers, shown as the dashed line inside its box in the picture below. Every model found it accurately.
Below are the details.
| Model | Range | Move | Confidence | Price it found | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | $754.00–$773.00 | -1.5% to +1.0% | 74% | $765.33 | 82.8 | right |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | $756.00–$775.00 | -1.3% to +1.2% | 55% | $765.88 | 53.7 | no call |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | $758.00–$771.00 | -1.0% to +0.7% | 75% | $765.96 | 83.1 | right |
| Grok 4.5 | $758.00–$774.00 | -1.0% to +1.0% | 38% | $766.00 | 53.2 | no call |
| deepseek | $762.00–$778.00 | -1.0% to +1.1% | 58% | $769.47 | 54.1 | no call |
| Kimi | $759.00–$772.00 | -0.9% to +0.8% | 55% | $765.96 | 54.2 | no call |
| claude-opus-5 | $754.00–$773.50 | -1.6% to +1.0% | 44% | $765.92 | 80.0 | right |
How these models have done on SPY over 1 day
This forecast is settled and is included in the statistics below. The remaining records are forecasts created before 2026-09-09 02:18 UTC. Only settled directional calls count toward accuracy.
| Model | Asked | Still open | No call | Called up | Called down | Right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | 8 | — | 1 | — | 7 · 6 right | 86% (6/7) |
| claude-opus-5 | 8 | — | 3 | — | 5 · 4 right | 80% (4/5) |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | 8 | — | 6 | — | 2 · 1 right | 50% (1/2) |
| deepseek | 8 | — | 3 | 3 · 0 right | 2 · 1 right | 20% (1/5) |
| Grok 4.5 | 8 | — | 8 | — | — | — |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | 1 | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Kimi | 1 | — | 1 | — | — | — |
Every published SPY forecast these models made over 1 day before this question was asked, on 2026-09-09 02:18 UTC, plus this settled forecast. Forecasts created after this question are excluded. Results reflect the settlements available when this article is generated. A day-ahead call and a week-ahead one are counted separately — they are different questions. Only settled forecasts are graded, so open + no call + up + down adds up to asked. “No call” is a range too centred on the price to be pointing anywhere. Accuracy counts only forecasts that have settled, and the count behind it is shown beside it — a single right call is not a 100% record.
What each model said
GPT-5.6 Sol
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) Price and data: SPY's September 8 official regular-session close was $765.96, down 0.55%, according to FinancialContent. ChartMill subsequently recorded SPY at $765.33 at 7:54:12 PM EDT in after-hours trading. That is the closest reliable quote I found before the requested 02:18 UTC window start. Because I did not retrieve a verified SPY transaction timestamped at or after 02:18 UTC, I classify data access as partial rather than live. Sources: FinancialContent and ChartMill.
(2) Market regime: The short-term regime has weakened. The S&P 500 fell 0.58% on September 8 to 7,673.52, with declining S&P 500 stocks outnumbering advancers by about 2.4-to-1. Reuters attributed pressure to rising oil prices, elevated Treasury yields and renewed software-disruption concerns, although AI hardware remained comparatively strong. The 10-year Treasury yield reached roughly 4.80%, while Brent crude approached $100. Sources: Reuters, AP and The Wall Street Journal.
(3) Price range: I estimate $754.00-$773.00 over the next trading day from the $765.33 reference. SPY traded as low as approximately $765 during September 8 and its 50-day simple moving average is about $756.86, according to ChartExchange, making the mid-$750s an important nearby lower region. The upper bound allows a rebound toward the September 4 close of $770.19 and the September 3 area above $773. The range is deliberately skewed downward because oil, yields and deteriorating breadth create more downside room than upside in the immediate setup. Sources: ChartExchange and FinancialContent.
(4) Catalysts: No major U.S. inflation release falls inside the September 9 regular session, but positioning ahead of them should matter. Reuters reports the Producer Price Index is due Thursday, September 10 and the Consumer Price Index Friday, September 11; traders currently assign roughly a 60% probability to a Federal Reserve rate increase at the September 15-16 meeting. Apple's September 9 product event is another potentially important index-level catalyst because of Apple's large S&P 500 weight. Sources: Reuters and Investor's Business Daily.
(5) Counter-argument: The strongest bullish argument is that equity weakness remains controlled despite Brent crude near $100 and the 10-year Treasury yield around 4.8%; S&P 500 futures were approximately unchanged around 00:55 UTC on September 9, according to Investing.com, and AI hardware continued to show relative strength. The bearish case would weaken if oil retreats materially and SPY quickly recovers the $770 area. Conversely, continued oil appreciation accompanied by yields remaining near or above 4.8% would reinforce the mildly bearish interpretation. Sources: Investing.com, Reuters and Investor's Business Daily.
(6) Confidence: Confidence is 74%. I use MILD BEARISH rather than BEARISH because the September 8 decline was moderate, futures were stable shortly before the forecast timestamp, and SPY remains above its approximately $756.86 50-day moving average. However, two consecutive down sessions, weak market breadth, near-$100 Brent crude, elevated Treasury yields and looming inflation data collectively make downside continuation somewhat more probable than an immediate full recovery. The absence of a major scheduled macro release during the September 9 session prevents higher confidence.
Muse Spark 1.1
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: MacroTrends shows latest closing price for SPY as of Sep 08, 2026 is $765.88, all-time high $777.88 on Aug 13, 2026. IvanLabrie Substack Sep 7 notes SPY 762 broke intraday and closed above, September curve volatile, oil ran on Iran-strike headlines. Finnhub proxies show SPYQ -1.17% indicating SPY weakness Sep 4-8 period. FinancialContent shows intraday $770.19 close $773.17 on alternate feed, confirming $760-770 range.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: After strong YTD, SPY is pulling back from $777.88 ATH, -1.5% off highs. Sep 4 hot jobs report lifted yields, pressuring multiples; Sep 8 CPI ahead is key risk. Market is in choppy consolidation above $762 support noted in weekly brief, with defensive rotation (utilities green Sep 4) and energy outperforming on oil headlines.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored at $765.88, range $756-$775 skews slightly down ($9.88 downside vs $9.12 upside) for mild bearish tilt. $775 caps recent high $777.88, $756 aligns with $762 support break risk and 1.2% downside. Daily ATR ~1-1.3% fits band.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: CPI print Friday referenced in Sep 7 brief is key, but 1-day window to Sep 9 includes oil volatility from Iran headlines and Fed speaker pricing. No earnings in window for SPY directly, but rate-hike odds repricing continues to weigh.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: Holding above $762 and reclaiming $770-773 could trigger momentum chase toward new highs $777.88+, especially if CPI cools and oil pullback supports margins. Invalidation is close above $775 with breadth expansion.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Confidence 55% modest due to conflicting signals: near ATH but facing yield headwinds and September seasonality, with SPY 762 as make-or-break level. Short-term bias mildly bearish given yield spike Sep 4, but longer 30d still mild bullish on intact uptrend.
Gemini 1.5 Pro
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) Sources and data: The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) closed at $765.96 on September 8, 2026, according to live Barchart and Investing.com quotes. Financial news from BNN Bloomberg and CommBank highlights that U.S. equities fell on Tuesday, pressured by rising Treasury yields and surging crude oil prices.
(2) Market regime: The market is currently in a cautious, risk-off regime. Escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly involving Iran, have pushed Brent crude oil near $98 a barrel. This energy spike is renewing inflation fears just as the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbs to 4.79%, driven by recent hawkish commentary from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh.
(3) Price range justification: The projected range of $758.00 to $771.00 accounts for the immediate downside pressure exerted by rising borrowing costs and energy shocks. SPY faces immediate overhead resistance near $770 to $772, which is likely to cap any short-term bounce, while downside momentum could test the recent support levels in the high $750s.
(4) Scheduled catalysts: The dominant near-term catalysts are the upcoming U.S. wholesale inflation (PPI) report on Thursday and the consumer inflation (CPI) report on Friday. These data points are critical as they arrive just days before the highly anticipated September 16 FOMC interest rate decision.
(5) Counter-argument and invalidation: The strongest counter-argument to a bearish tilt is that the market may experience a technical mean-reversion bounce after Tuesday's selloff. If oil prices suddenly retreat or if institutional
Grok 4.5
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Live market data from MarketWatch, FT, Investing.com, TECHi and Twelve Data show SPY closing at $765.96 on 8 September 2026 (down 0.55 percent on the day) with an after-hours print near $765.40. The session range was $765.14-$769.70. Recent closes have oscillated between roughly $762 and $773.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: The S&P 500 proxy is consolidating after a mild early-September pullback. Macro conditions remain shaped by elevated rate-hike probabilities following strong labor data and sticky inflation readings. Equity positioning is mixed, with defensive sectors relatively firm and rate-sensitive areas under pressure. Realized volatility is moderate near 13 percent annualized.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored near $766, the one-day range of $758-$774 reflects typical recent daily ranges of 0.5-1.0 percent plus a modest buffer for overnight gaps. Near-term support sits around the $761-$763 zone; resistance is clustered near the $770-$774 area that capped the prior bounce.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: No major U.S. economic releases or FOMC events fall inside the exact 24-hour window starting 02:18 UTC on 9 September. The nearest data points (PPI on 10 September, CPI on 11 September) and the mid-month FOMC sit outside the horizon, leaving the session driven mainly by residual positioning and any overnight equity or rates flows.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: A sudden softening in rate-hike odds or a broad risk-on open could push SPY back toward $772-$774 and invalidate the mild downside bias. Conversely, a further rise in yields or risk-off move would favor the lower end of the range. The one-day call remains neutral because neither catalyst is confirmed inside the window.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Confidence is modest at 38 percent because a single equity-trading day is dominated by noise and liquidity rather than structural drivers. Live price data are consistent across sources, yet the absence of a decisive catalyst and mixed multi-timeframe signals keep conviction limited.
deepseek
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) Price discovery and sources: As of the September 9, 2026 window start, SPY is trading at approximately $769.47. This is based on Friday's close of $769.47 reported by multiple sources (Benzinga, TradingView). The all-time high is $779.37 set on August 13, 2026. S&P 500 E-Mini futures are around 7,684-7,687 as of the morning of September 9, implying a roughly flat open relative to Friday's cash close. The GF Value metric currently estimates SPY at approximately 13.0% overvalued with a fair value of $681.58.
(2) Current market regime: The market is caught between strong earnings momentum and rising macro headwinds. Q2 2026 earnings growth was a blistering 50.4% year-over-year, with 86% of companies beating estimates. Forward 12-month EPS has risen 7.9% since June 30, while the S&P 500 has only risen 3.3%, compressing the forward P/E to 19.2. The PEG ratio has fallen to 0.75, a 30-year low. However, market breadth is deteriorating - only ~43% of S&P 500 stocks are above their 50-day moving average. The 10-year Treasury yield is approaching 4.8%, creating a headwind for equity valuations. Institutional activity shows 11 of 15 top gurus trimming SPY positions.
(3) Price range justification: The 1-day forecast range of $762-$778 reflects a ±1.0% band around current levels, consistent with recent realised volatility (VIX ~15-16). The lower bound of $762 is defined by the next structural support shelf below 765-766, a level identified by multiple technicians as the key downside pivot. The upper bound of $778 is just below the all-time high of $779.37 and aligns with the bullish target of 779.5 identified in weekly outlooks. The range is asymmetric with slightly more downside room given the near-term macro risks.
(4) Catalysts inside the window: The next 24 hours are relatively quiet but the week is back-end loaded. Wednesday September 9 features Apple's major product event, which could influence mega-cap tech sentiment. More importantly, Thursday September 10 brings PPI (8:30 AM ET) and the ECB decision, while Friday September 11 brings CPI (8:30 AM ET). These inflation prints are critical because the strong August jobs report has raised the probability of a September Fed rate hike to 61-62%. Fed Governor Waller has signalled he would support a rate hold if disinflation continues, but a hot CPI print could tip the balance toward a hike.
(5) Strongest counter-argument and invalidation: The most compelling bullish case is that earnings growth continues to outrun valuations, making stocks cheaper even as prices rise. If Q3 earnings guidance continues to surprise to the upside, the market could break out to new all-time highs. The counter-argument is that the market is already pricing in perfection - 13% overvalued by GF Value, weakening breadth, rising yields, and a hawkish Fed repricing. My neutral-to-mildly-bearish near-term view would be invalidated if SPY reclaims and holds above 771-774 on strong volume, signalling acceptance above the dense overhead supply zone. Conversely, a sustained break below 769 would confirm bearish momentum toward the lower end of the range.
(6) Confidence assessment: Confidence is 58%, reflecting a balanced balance of outcomes setup where the evidence does not strongly favour either direction over a 1-day horizon. The earnings backdrop is undeniably strong, supporting a long-term bullish view, but near-term headwinds - seasonal weakness (September is historically the worst month for stocks), rising yields, deteriorating breadth, and pre-CPI uncertainty - argue for caution. The market is coiling near resistance, and the direction likely depends on inflation data later in the week, which falls outside this 1-day window. This is a legitimate neutral stance, not a default.
Kimi
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) What I found: Yahoo Finance SPY daily bars show the ETF closed 2026-09-08 at $765.96, down on the day from an open of $769.07, with a high of $769.70, a low of $765.14 and elevated volume of 44.7M shares versus roughly 30-40M on surrounding days. Yahoo's ^GSPC history confirms the S&P 500 fell -0.58% to 7,673.52 on Sep 8, giving back part of the Sep 3 surge - the index's best day since Aug 4, sparked by Fed Governor Waller's "disinflation" comments, which had pushed traders to pare September rate-hike bets. Because the window opens at 02:18 UTC, before the regular session, my anchor is the Sep 8 regular close of $765.96; no overnight futures print was retrievable for that exact minute.
(2) Market regime: a headline-driven, Fed-dominated chop inside a broad range. The dominant macro fact is the September 16 FOMC, which prediction markets and FedWatch-style pricing put at roughly a coin-flip to 57% odds of a 25bp hike after Kevin Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole speech, with the 10-year yield recently near 4.74-4.80% and oil at multi-month highs (per Yahoo's Sep 3 live coverage and the Intellectia and Kalshi September-Fed summaries). Technically SPY is mid-range: lower highs from $779 (Aug 13) and $774 (Sep 3), with support at $762 and $759.50 (Aug 20 and Sep 1 lows) and resistance at $769.70, then $772-$774. September seasonality is a mild headwind, with the S&P 500 averaging about -1% for the month since 1928 (Investing.com).
(3) Price range: I anchor on $765.96 and use recent realized daily ranges of roughly 4-6.5 points. A one-day band of $759-$772 spans about -0.9% to +0.8%, slightly wider on the downside deliberately: the Sep 8 close near the low on heavy volume plus hawkish-Fed repricing risk argues for more room below, while a Waller-style disinflation headline could lift the tape toward the $772-$774 supply zone. $762 and $759.50 are the key support shelves; $769.70 and $772 are the first resistance barriers.
(4) Catalysts inside the window: there is no tier-1 US macro print on Sep 9 - the August jobs report landed Sep 4 and the FOMC is Sep 16 - so the session will trade on Fed-speaker headlines and shifting hike odds, oil's move after Brent and WTI touched one-month highs, follow-through from the Sep 8 after-close earnings batch, and whether buyers defend $762-$765. A softening in yields or another dovish Fed remark is the upside spark; a hawkish surprise or an energy spike is the downside trigger.
(5) Counter-argument: the strongest case against my mild-bearish lean is that the market has already spent two weeks pricing hawkishness, Goldman's Hatzius has publicly argued market pricing is still too hawkish as inflation cools, and a single Waller-style comment produced a 1% index rally on Sep 3. If Fed officials lean the other way before Sep 16, or 10-year yields slip back under ~4.70%, the range floor at $759-$762 likely holds and SPY rotates back toward $774, which would invalidate the downside tilt.
(6) Confidence is 55% because the 1-day path is genuinely two-sided: the tape closed weak on rising volume (bearish), but sits in the middle of a five-week range with no top-tier data on the calendar, so most of the next session's move depends on unscheduled Fed headlines that are close to unpredictable.
claude-opus-5
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) What I found, and where: SPY closed Tuesday September 8 at $765.96, down 0.55%, in a $765.14-$769.70 range on 44.7M shares, then held flat through extended hours to finish at $765.92 at 8:00pm EDT - the last print before this 02:18 UTC baseline and my anchor (stockanalysis.com). Note the close sat within a dollar of the session low. The 52-week range is $629.28-$779.37, leaving SPY about 1.7% under its high. Yahoo Finance reported the S&P down 0.36% and the Dow down 0.95% for that session, but those were intraday figures; SPY's own -0.55% close is the harder number.
(2) Current market regime: a rate-and-oil squeeze has replaced the quiet grind of last week. Brent traded at $99.46 as of September 9, a near seven-week high, up 13.38% over the past month and 47.37% year over year, after military strikes near Iran's Kharg Island export hub and against the 400,000 barrel-per-day Jazan refinery, with Iran declaring a new restricted maritime zone in the Strait of Hormuz (Trading Economics). WTI was quoted at $93.20 during Tuesday's session with Iran warning it would act against threats pre-emptively (Yahoo Finance). Layered on that, Canada's retaliatory tariffs on US goods took effect after midnight Tuesday following collapsed negotiations, and Friday's 162,000 payrolls print had already lifted September hike expectations and Treasury yields. An oil shock arriving two days before a CPI report is the specific problem here: it makes the inflation print more dangerous rather than less.
(3) Price range justification: the window covers exactly one cash session, Wednesday September 9, plus its extended hours. From the $765.92 anchor, SPY's realized daily range has been narrow - Tuesday's high-to-low was 0.60% - but headline-driven oil and geopolitical tape argues for widening that toward 1.2-1.5%. The band $754.00 to $773.50 gives about 1.56% of room below versus 0.99% above. That asymmetry is deliberate: the index is 1.7% from its high with an unresolved conflict premium building in energy and a binary inflation print 48 hours out, so the distribution of surprises skews to the downside even though the drift itself may be small.
(4) Scheduled catalysts inside the window: none, and that matters. Wednesday September 9 carries no noteworthy US economic releases and no bellwether earnings (FinancialJuice week-ahead, Kiplinger calendar). The heavyweight events sit just outside: August PPI Thursday September 10 at 8:30am ET, with Oracle's fiscal Q1 2027 report the same day (StockTitan), then August CPI Friday September 11 at 8:30am ET with University of Michigan sentiment and inflation expectations at 10:00am. With no data to trade, Wednesday is likely to be driven by the oil tape, headline risk out of the Strait of Hormuz, and positioning ahead of those two prints.
(5) Strongest counter-argument and invalidation: the tape has repeatedly declined to break. It absorbed a large hawkish payrolls surprise on September 4 and finished flat, and it is still only 1.7% below a 52-week high - a market that wanted to sell off had a clear excuse last week and did not take it. Sessions with no scheduled data ahead of a major print often go quiet rather than directional, which argues for NEUTRAL over MILD BEARISH on the 1d. My call is invalidated if Brent retreats back below the mid-$90s on any de-escalation headline, or if SPY reclaims Tuesday's $769.70 high early in the session. I should also be explicit that the 1h and 4h horizons are NEUTRAL by construction rather than judgment: SPY's extended hours ended at 8:00pm ET and no shares trade during those windows, whatever index futures do overnight.
(6) Confidence justification: 44%. The directional lean is better supported than in recent days - an oil shock, new tariffs, rising hike odds and a close near the session low form a coherent bearish setup rather than a single-thread argument - but the magnitude is uncertain and Wednesday has no catalyst of its own, so a flat drift is entirely plausible. The 7d and 30d readings carry the same logic forward through PPI, CPI and the September 16 FOMC, and their weakness is that this market has been persistently bid; I am forecasting a skew in the distribution, not a break.
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