This is ForecastNest’s 1 day forecast for SPY, created 2026-09-21 19:43 UTC. The window closed 2026-09-22 19:43 UTC, when SPY closed at $774.32, up 0.0% from $774.32 when the forecast was made. It traded between $772.57 and $775.14 along the way (-0.2% to +0.1%).
Prediction window: Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.
Prediction time: 2026-09-21 19:43 UTC (9/21/2026, 3:43:02 PM EDT).
Valid until: 2026-09-22 19:43 UTC (9/22/2026, 3:43:02 PM EDT). Target session: 2026-09-22 (New York); During session. Lead time to expiry: 24 elapsed hours. Timing: Regular session. Based on stored prediction time, not verified model execution time.
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2 of the 6 models called a direction, and 0 of those calls were right. Each model is also asked to find the price it was forecasting from when it answers, shown as the dashed line inside its box in the picture below. All models except Muse Spark 1.1 and Gemini 1.5 Pro found it accurately.
Below are the details.
| Model | Range | Move | Confidence | Price it found | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | $765.50–$780.50 | -0.9% to +1.1% | 58% | $772.37 | 54.2 | no call |
| Claude Opus 5 | $760.00–$774.00 | -0.9% to +0.9% | 35% | $767.00 | 52.9 | no call |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | $755.00–$770.00 | -0.9% to +1.1% | 54% | $761.62 | 36.6 | wrong |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | $760.00–$772.00 | -0.7% to +0.9% | 70% | $765.20 | 50.9 | wrong |
| Grok 4 | $768.00–$780.00 | -0.8% to +0.8% | 52% | $774.00 | 54.2 | no call |
| DeepSeek V3 | $768.50–$780.50 | -0.7% to +0.8% | 60% | $774.25 | 54.6 | no call |
How these models have done on SPY over 1 day
This forecast is settled and is included in the statistics below. The remaining records are forecasts created before 2026-09-21 19:43 UTC. Only settled directional calls count toward accuracy.
| Model | Asked | Still open | No call | Called up | Called down | Right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Sonnet 5 | 1 | — | 0 | — | 1 · 1 right | 100% (1/1) |
| GPT-5.6 Sol | 11 | — | 4 | — | 7 · 6 right | 86% (6/7) |
| Claude Opus 5 | 14 | — | 7 | — | 7 · 4 right | 57% (4/7) |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | 8 | — | 4 | 1 · 0 right | 3 · 2 right | 50% (2/4) |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | 14 | — | 10 | 1 · 0 right | 3 · 2 right | 50% (2/4) |
| GPT-6 | 3 | — | 0 | — | 3 · 1 right | 33% (1/3) |
| DeepSeek V3 | 14 | — | 6 | 4 · 1 right | 4 · 1 right | 25% (2/8) |
| Grok 4 | 11 | — | 11 | — | — | — |
| Kimi | 1 | — | 1 | — | — | — |
Every published SPY forecast over 1 day before this question was asked, on 2026-09-21 19:43 UTC, plus this settled forecast. Forecasts created after this question are excluded. Results reflect the settlements available when this article is generated. A day-ahead call and a week-ahead one are counted separately — they are different questions. Only settled forecasts are graded, so open + no call + up + down adds up to asked. “No call” is a range too centred on the price to be pointing anywhere. Accuracy counts only forecasts that have settled, and the count behind it is shown beside it — a single right call is not a 100% record.
What each model said
GPT-5.6 Sol
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) What I found: Investing.com showed SPY at $772.37 on September 21, up from the September 18 close of $761.69, with an intraday range of $766.03-$772.65. The requested 19:43 UTC baseline was still about three minutes in the future when I answered, so this quote necessarily predates the baseline and data_access is partial rather than live. Source: [https://www.investing.com/etfs/spdr-s-p-500
(2)](https://www.investing.com/etfs/spdr-s-p-500
%282%29) Market regime: The immediate regime is risk-on and technology-led. Reuters reported the S&P 500 up roughly 1.05% and the Nasdaq up about 1.62% during Monday trading as AI and semiconductor stocks rallied, crude oil fell more than 3%, and Treasury yields eased. Seven of eleven S&P 500 sectors were higher, so participation was broader than a single-stock technology squeeze, although communication services and technology remained the principal leaders. Source: [https://www.reuters.com/business/wall-st-futures-rise-ai-stocks-gain-oil-prices-slide-2026-09-21/
(3)](https://www.reuters.com/business/wall-st-futures-rise-ai-stocks-gain-oil-prices-slide-2026-09-21/
%283%29) Price range: I use $765.50-$780.50 for the next one-day window. The lower bound allows a substantial retracement toward Monday's opening region if today's rally fades, while the upper bound slightly exceeds SPY's recent 52-week high of $779.37. The September 21 intraday range had already expanded to roughly $6.60 by the time of my quote, and recent sessions have included significantly larger ranges during rate-driven volatility. Source: [https://www.investing.com/etfs/spdr-s-p-500
(4)](https://www.investing.com/etfs/spdr-s-p-500
%284%29) Catalysts inside the window: The strongest immediate supports are lower oil prices, easing Treasury yields and renewed confidence in AI infrastructure demand. Reuters reported crude down more than 3% and technology shares leading the market higher, while separate market data showed the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield retreating toward approximately 4.97% from levels above 5% last week. The main countervailing macro force is continued expectation that the Federal Reserve may tighten again because inflation remains elevated. Sources: [https://www.reuters.com/business/wall-st-futures-rise-ai-stocks-gain-oil-prices-slide-2026-09-21/](https://www.reuters.com/business/wall-st-futures-rise-ai-stocks-gain-oil-prices-slide-2026-09-21/) and [https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-09-21/
(5)](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-09-21/
%285%29) Strongest counter-argument: The bearish case is that SPY has already gained about 1.4% from Friday's close and is approaching its recent record zone near $779, leaving less room for upside without another catalyst. Today's leadership is also concentrated heavily in AI, semiconductor and communication-services stocks, so a reversal in that theme or a rebound in Treasury yields could quickly compress the index. A sustained return below roughly $767-$768 would weaken the short-term bullish interpretation, while continued strength above roughly $773-$775 would indicate that buyers are maintaining control near the highs. Sources: [https://www.investing.com/etfs/spdr-s-p-500](https://www.investing.com/etfs/spdr-s-p-500) and [https://www.reuters.com/business/wall-st-futures-rise-ai-stocks-gain-oil-prices-slide-2026-09-21/
(6)](https://www.reuters.com/business/wall-st-futures-rise-ai-stocks-gain-oil-prices-slide-2026-09-21/
%286%29) Confidence: 58% reflects positive momentum but limited forecasting edge after a large same-day move. Falling oil, easing yields, positive breadth and strong AI-sector leadership support MILD BULLISH over one day and BULLISH over four hours. Confidence remains below 60% because SPY is already close to its recent record, further Federal Reserve tightening remains possible, and the requested baseline had not yet occurred when this answer was generated.
Claude Opus 5
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) What I found: Investing.com shows SPY at $767.48 on September 21, 2026, with a previous close of $761.69, a day range of $766.03-$767.81 and a 52-week range of $629.28-$779.37. The narrow day range suggests that quote is from early in the session, not from the 19:43 UTC window start, so $767 is an estimate carried forward from an earlier intraday print rather than a live quote. Benzinga/Yahoo confirmed Friday's close at $761.69 (+0.13%) and S&P 500 futures up about 0.41% premarket. I have no reliable clock, so answered_at_utc is 'unknown'.
(2) Market regime: Risk-on but range-bound near highs. Monday's gains are driven by falling oil (Brent down a fourth straight session on Iran diplomacy hopes, per Bloomberg coverage), a 10-year yield slipping back below 5%, and a renewed chip rally. This comes after the Fed's 25bp hike on September 16 to 3.75%-4.00% (per StockAnalysis coverage), so the macro backdrop remains restrictive, and weekend Iran-US threats plus Houthi strikes on Riyadh (Benzinga) show geopolitical risk is still live.
(3) Price range: SPY's typical one-day move in this environment is roughly 0.8%-1.0%, or about $6-$8. I set $760-$774, slightly skewed higher: the lower bound sits just below Friday's close area and the $760.55 support level cited by StrongBuyAnalytics, while the upper bound stays below the 52-week high of $779.37. The mild upward skew reflects the oil and yield tailwind and trend persistence after a gap-up day.
(4) Catalysts in the window: StrongBuyAnalytics lists a light Monday macro calendar (Chicago Fed National Activity Index and a Goolsbee speech). Over the next session, the main swing factors are oil and Iran headlines, Treasury yields around the 5% mark, and positioning ahead of a Trump-Xi summit later this week reported by BeInCrypto and CoinDesk.
(5) Counter-argument: Gap-up days after geopolitically driven relief often fade if headlines reverse; the Fed has just resumed hiking, and a bounce in oil or a 10-year yield back above 5% could quickly erase Monday's gain. A move back below about $760 (Friday's close zone) would invalidate the mild bullish 1-day view.
(6) Confidence: 35% reflects that my price anchor is hours old, one-day index direction is close to a coin flip, and the directional tilt rests on macro drivers (oil, yields, geopolitics) that can reverse on a single headline.
Muse Spark 1.1
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: MacroTrends reports SPY latest close as of Sep 18 2026 is $761.69 all-time high $777.88 Aug 13 2026. Stockwatch reports Sep 18 SPY open $761.38 high $762.00 low $757.971 close $761.54 change -1.06 vol 65,395,118 trades 304,223. Block2Learn technical analysis reports last close $761.62 $0.37 below EMA 12 and $0.98 below EMA 26 sitting directly on averages. Mavefund weekly Sep 14-18 $SPY finished week down -0.3% with rotation. GuruFocus Aug 2026 reports current price $770.77 as of Aug analysis 12.5% overvalued. FinancialContent reports close $675.02 $687.57 etc older. SPYQ 2x long $197.38 open $197.38 high $197.38 low $197.38 prev $191.73 per Finnhub Sep 21.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: Consolidation post-Fed hike Sep 16 12-0 to 3.75-4.00% per Freedom969. BTC $85,936 Sep 21 first above $85k since Jan 29 per Fana, $85,846 +5.55% Steemit 20:49, $85k squeeze $648M shorts per Global-View shows risk-on but SPY -0.3% weekly lag. SPY $761.62 below EMA12/26 per Block2Learn not extended beneath, needs close above $766 for traction. Regime neutral.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to $761.62 Block2Learn last close Sep 18. Using day range $757.97-$762.00 Stockwatch and $761.69 MacroTrends and $770.77 GuruFocus current. Daily vol ~0.8% ~$6. Lower $755 near $757.97 low -0.8% if Fed officials hawkish Sep 21-27 per HappyCoinNews, upper $770 near $770.77 GuruFocus +1.1% toward $777.88 ATH captures rebound above EMA. Symmetric neutral because flat momentum and sitting on averages.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: Window Sep 21 19:43 UTC 24h covers Sep 21-22 Monday open. Events Sep 21-27 Fed officials speeches, fresh macro data, US stats, US-China negotiations per HappyCoinNews Sep 20. No SPY dividend in window. BTC $85k breakout may spill.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: Bull case: BTC $85k squeeze $648M and ETF $433M inflows per Global-View JustMarkets could lift SPY to $770 above $766 EMA breakout per Block2Learn. Bear case: hawkish Fed speeches could push to $755 below $757.97 low. Invalidation: close below $753 or above $772 would negate neutral.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Confidence 54% reflects live close $761.62 Sep 18 per Block2Learn and $761.69 MacroTrends and $761.54 Stockwatch Sep 18 same day, with day range $757.97-$762.00 vol 65M, but stale Sep 21 Sunday no live quote. Labeling live because Sep 18 close after Sep 16 hike and same week as window start, plus SPYQ $197.38 live Sep 21 corroborates.
Gemini 1.5 Pro
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) Data sources: I retrieved live market data indicating the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is trading near $765.20 as of 3:43 PM EDT on September 21, 2026. I also incorporated recent sector performance metrics showing heavy outperformance in mega-cap technology and semiconductor equities.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: The equity market is in a constructive, risk-on phase. Investors have largely moved past the Federal Reserve's recent 25-basis-point rate hike, shifting their focus toward resilient economic data and secular growth themes in artificial intelligence. This has sparked a steady capital rotation back into major index heavyweights, lifting the broader S&P 500.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: I project a 24-hour range of $760.00-$772.00. SPY has established strong intraday support near the $760.00 level following Friday's options expiration and weekend stabilization. Upside momentum is firming, making a push toward the $770.00 to $772.00 resistance band highly plausible if the tech-led bid continues into Tuesday's session.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: Price action over the next 24 hours will be driven by the closing auction dynamics of today's session, overnight Asian and European market sentiment, and any scheduled Tuesday morning macroeconomic releases or Federal Reserve speaker commentary.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: The primary risk to a continued grind higher is a sudden upward shock in the 10-year Treasury yield. If bond markets begin to price in a more aggressive "higher-for-longer" stance than equity markets currently expect, multiple compression in the tech sector could swiftly drag SPY back down through the $760.00 support level.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: My confidence is 70%. The underlying market breadth and structural momentum from tech mega-caps provide a robust foundation for near-term strength, though late-day trading mechanics and lingering interest rate sensitivities demand standard risk-management caution.
Grok 4
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Real-time and delayed quotes from TECHi, Stocknear, TradeSmith, MarketWatch and Investing.com as of 21 September 2026 show SPY trading near $773-$774 after an intraday advance from the prior close of $761.69. Session high printed around $774.62 on moderate volume with the index tracking S&P 500 gains led by AI and semiconductor names.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: Constructive risk-on tone. Equity indexes advanced on the day as AI-related stocks (including AMD and Meta) led, oil prices declined more than 2-3 %, and Treasury yields eased. Sentiment improved ahead of scheduled US-China discussions; the recent Fed rate hike appears absorbed without sustained selling pressure.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to the prevailing ~$774 level. Recent daily ranges have been $5-$12. The lower bound reflects possible profit-taking or a retest of the prior session close and $766-$768 support; the upper bound allows a modest extension toward the recent multi-week high near $775-$779 if momentum continues into the close and overnight.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: No major economic releases or Fed decisions fall inside the next 24 hours. Residual focus is on any late-session flow, futures positioning, and early commentary related to the upcoming Trump-Xi meeting later in the week. Liquidity is typical for a Monday session.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: A sudden rebound in oil prices, hawkish Fed-speak, or negative geopolitical headline could reverse today’s gains and push SPY back toward $765-$768. Conversely, an aggressive extension above $780 on thin volume would challenge the modest-continuation framing.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Short-term directional evidence is mildly positive after the AI-led rebound and supportive macro backdrop, yet one-day index moves remain subject to late-day positioning and overnight news risk. 52 % reflects limited conviction beyond the immediate momentum.
DeepSeek V3
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) Price discovery: I found SPY trading at $774.25 as of 15:23 ET on September 21, up 1.65% from the prior close of $761.69, based on a live intraday quote from Perplexity Finance. The day's range was $766.03-$774.62. An earlier LongPort quote showed the open at $766.25, and Investing.com listed the S&P 500 cash index at 7,760.21 (+1.44%). TradingView premarket notes flagged $766.67 before the open. Friday's regular session closed at $761.69 after a failed attempt to reclaim $762.57 on a closing basis.
(2) Market regime: SPY has staged a decisive breakout above the multi-session resistance shelf at $762.57-$765.52 that had capped price for three straight sessions. The move is driven by a confluence of positive catalysts: falling oil prices (Brent down 2% to $101.70 on reports of recovering Saudi supply), a rally in semiconductor shares (Intel up 5.4%, Micron and AMD each around 2% premarket), and constructive US-China trade talks ahead of Thursday's Trump-Xi summit. The bond market also rallied, with European debt leading gains after a six-week selloff. The VIX closed Friday at 14.81 and remains contained, with the S&P 500 sitting within half a percent of its 50-day moving average. The 10-year Treasury yield is back at 5.00%, a level that has historically capped equity upside.
(3) Price range: I used the premarket breakout level of $766.67 and the intraday high of $774.62 as structural anchors. The $765.52 level that was cleared overnight now serves as near-term support, with the $762.57 shelf below it as the structural floor. On the upside, the $775-$780 zone is the next major hurdle; TradingView analysis identifies $770.09 as the next charted level above, and a sustained hold above $770 would put the prior high of $779.37 back in play. The 52-week high is $779.37. With VIX at 14.81 and the week's expected move around 1.2% (7550-7750 on the cash index), the options market is pricing a narrower band than the one implied by today's sharp intraday move. I expect a one-day range of $768.50-$780.50, with slightly more room above than below because the breakout is fresh and momentum favors continuation.
(4) Catalysts: The primary catalyst inside the window is the ongoing US-China trade dialogue in New York, laying groundwork for Thursday's Trump-Xi summit. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described the discussions on AI, trade and investment as very successful, raising expectations that the current trade truce could be extended. Fed speakers are also active this week, with Goolsbee, Williams, Jefferson and Barkin all due to comment. On Wednesday, September flash PMI data for manufacturing and services will be released. Costco reports Q3 earnings. No single catalyst is expected to cause a dramatic move on Tuesday alone, but the cumulative news flow is supportive of risk assets.
(5) Counter-argument: The strongest counter-argument is that today's breakout occurred on a gap open that has not yet been confirmed by a close above the key level. The TradingView analysis explicitly warns that premarket is not a close, and three sessions of failed reclaims at $762.57 suggest genuine supply overhead. Morgan Stanley's Wilson team cautioned that US stocks risk a 7% drop if energy prices rise further or bond volatility intensifies. Wells Fargo cut its year-end S&P 500 target to 7,700 from 7,950, citing equity valuations, investor positioning and liquidity conditions. If SPY fades back below $765.52 and closes below $762.57, the breakout would be invalidated and price could rotate back toward $760.80. A sustained break below $758 would put $755 in play, with the major put wall at that level.
(6) Confidence: I set confidence at 60% because the direction is genuinely two-sided. The breakout above multi-session resistance, supportive AI demand narrative, and constructive US-China tone argue for continuation. But the move is driven by a gap open that has not been confirmed by a close, the 10-year yield at 5.00% is a structural headwind, and options positioning is not uniformly bullish. The one-day forecast has a mild upward bias from momentum and news flow, but this is closer to a coin flip than a high-conviction call.
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