This is ForecastNest’s 1 day forecast for SOXL, created 2026-09-21 19:46 UTC. The window closed 2026-09-22 19:46 UTC, when SOXL closed at $151.37, up 5.6% from $143.31 when the forecast was made. It traded between $137.46 and $151.47 along the way (-4.1% to +5.7%).
Prediction window: Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.
Prediction time: 2026-09-21 19:46 UTC (9/21/2026, 3:46:23 PM EDT).
Valid until: 2026-09-22 19:46 UTC (9/22/2026, 3:46:23 PM EDT). Target session: 2026-09-22 (New York); During session. Lead time to expiry: 24 elapsed hours. Timing: Regular session. Based on stored prediction time, not verified model execution time.
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4 of the 6 models called a direction, and 0 of those calls were right. Each model is also asked to find the price it was forecasting from when it answers, shown as the dashed line inside its box in the picture below. All models except GPT-5.6 Sol, Claude Opus 5, Grok 4.5, and DeepSeek V3 found it accurately.
Below are the details.
| Model | Range | Move | Confidence | Price it found | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | $127.00–$145.50 | -6.1% to +7.5% | 59% | $135.32 | 13.8 | wrong |
| Claude Opus 5 | $121.00–$140.00 | -7.6% to +6.9% | 25% | $131.00 | 1.2 | wrong |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | $135.00–$151.00 | -6.0% to +5.2% | 56% | $143.60 | 10.7 | wrong |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | $134.00–$153.00 | -6.7% to +6.5% | 60% | $143.62 | 51.7 | no call |
| Grok 4.5 | $129.00–$142.00 | -8.5% to +0.7% | 42% | $141.00 | 12.8 | wrong |
| DeepSeek V3 | $130.50–$148.50 | -6.4% to +6.5% | 58% | $139.49 | 18.7 | no call |
How these models have done on SOXL over 1 day
This forecast is settled and is included in the statistics below. The remaining records are forecasts created before 2026-09-21 19:46 UTC. Only settled directional calls count toward accuracy.
| Model | Asked | Still open | No call | Called up | Called down | Right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gemini 1.5 Pro (Gemini — Flash) | 1 | — | 0 | 1 · 1 right | — | 100% (1/1) |
| Claude Sonnet 5 | 1 | — | 0 | 1 · 1 right | — | 100% (1/1) |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro (Gemini — Pro) | 14 | — | 3 | 5 · 5 right | 6 · 1 right | 55% (6/11) |
| Grok 4.5 | 11 | — | 0 | 7 · 6 right | 4 · 0 right | 55% (6/11) |
| DeepSeek V3 | 14 | — | 2 | 7 · 5 right | 5 · 1 right | 50% (6/12) |
| GPT-5.6 Sol | 11 | — | 2 | 5 · 3 right | 4 · 1 right | 44% (4/9) |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | 7 | — | 1 | 1 · 1 right | 5 · 0 right | 17% (1/6) |
| Claude Opus 5 | 13 | — | 1 | — | 12 · 1 right | 8% (1/12) |
| GPT-6 | 3 | — | 0 | — | 3 · 0 right | 0% (0/3) |
| GPT-5.6 Luna | 1 | — | 0 | — | 1 · 0 right | 0% (0/1) |
Every published SOXL forecast over 1 day before this question was asked, on 2026-09-21 19:46 UTC, plus this settled forecast. Forecasts created after this question are excluded. Results reflect the settlements available when this article is generated. A day-ahead call and a week-ahead one are counted separately — they are different questions. Only settled forecasts are graded, so open + no call + up + down adds up to asked. “No call” is a range too centred on the price to be pointing anywhere. Accuracy counts only forecasts that have settled, and the count behind it is shown beside it — a single right call is not a 100% record.
What each model said
GPT-5.6 Sol
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) What I found: Yahoo Finance showed SOXL at $135.32 on September 21, up 9.42% from the September 18 close of $123.67, with an intraday high of $135.53 and low of $129.62. The displayed quote timestamp was 10:18:39 AM EDT, several hours before the requested 19:46 UTC baseline, so I classify data_access as partial rather than live. Source: [https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/quote/SOXL/history/
(2)](https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/quote/SOXL/history/
%282%29) Market regime: Semiconductor shares are in a strong risk-on rebound. Reuters reported the PHLX Semiconductor Index up about 3.7% during Monday trading, with Intel and Arm rising more than 12% and AMD reaching a $1 trillion market capitalization as investors focused on strong AI-compute demand. Falling crude oil prices and lower Treasury yields are reinforcing the sector move. This is favorable for SOXL because it targets 300% of the daily performance of the NYSE Semiconductor Index, although the leverage also magnifies reversals. Sources: [https://www.reuters.com/business/wall-st-futures-rise-ai-stocks-gain-oil-prices-slide-2026-09-21/](https://www.reuters.com/business/wall-st-futures-rise-ai-stocks-gain-oil-prices-slide-2026-09-21/) and [https://www.direxion.com/product/daily-semiconductor-bull-bear-3x-etfs
(3)](https://www.direxion.com/product/daily-semiconductor-bull-bear-3x-etfs
%283%29) Price range: I use $127.00-$145.50 for the next one-day window. The lower bound allows a substantial retracement toward Monday's opening region and the recent $123-$128 breakout zone if today's semiconductor rally fades. The upper bound allows another roughly 7.5% extension from the verified $135.32 quote if chip momentum remains strong. Recent SOXL volatility justifies a wide range: the ETF gained 10.44% on September 17 and another 7.71% on September 18 after falling 16.98% on September 14. Source: [https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/quote/SOXL/history/
(4)](https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/quote/SOXL/history/
%284%29) Catalysts inside the window: The strongest supportive catalyst is continued evidence of accelerating AI infrastructure demand. Reuters reported AMD's market capitalization surpassing $1 trillion, Intel gaining roughly 13%, and strong demand for processors used in AI systems. South Korean semiconductor exports also reached record levels, reinforcing the global demand narrative. At the macro level, U.S. crude fell sharply and the 10-year Treasury yield retreated below 5%, both supportive for high-beta technology shares. Sources: [https://www.reuters.com/business/amd-becomes-latest-chipmaker-reach-1-trillion-valuation-ai-demand-2026-09-21/](https://www.reuters.com/business/amd-becomes-latest-chipmaker-reach-1-trillion-valuation-ai-demand-2026-09-21/) and [https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-09-21/
(5)](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-09-21/
%285%29) Strongest counter-argument: The bearish case is that SOXL has already advanced roughly 34% from its September 14 close in only a few sessions, leaving the leveraged ETF vulnerable to sharp profit-taking. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said strong demand may itself be contributing to inflation, potentially requiring more aggressive Federal Reserve tightening. A renewed rise in Treasury yields or any disappointment in AI-demand expectations could therefore reverse semiconductor momentum rapidly. A sustained move back below roughly $129-$130 would materially weaken the bullish short-term interpretation, while continued strength above roughly $136-$138 would favor an extension toward the upper part of the range. Sources: [https://www.reuters.com/business/feds-goolsbee-strong-demand-may-be-adding-us-inflation-no-ambiguity-how-fed-2026-09-21/](https://www.reuters.com/business/feds-goolsbee-strong-demand-may-be-adding-us-inflation-no-ambiguity-how-fed-2026-09-21/) and [https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/quote/SOXL/history/
(6)](https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/quote/SOXL/history/
%286%29) Confidence: 59% reflects strong sector momentum but unusually high volatility and incomplete quote freshness. Semiconductor breadth, lower oil prices, easing Treasury yields and renewed AI-demand optimism support MILD BULLISH over one day and BULLISH over four hours. Confidence remains below 60% because SOXL's 3x daily leverage can produce violent reversals, the recent multi-session rebound is already extended, and my freshest verified quote predates the requested baseline by several hours.
Claude Opus 5
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) What I found: Investing.com's SOXL page, dated September 21, 2026, shows $123.67 as the previous close, a last pre-market price of $132.50 and a last after-hours price of $129.67, with a 52-week range of $28.12-$302.00. The page is internally inconsistent (it lists $123.67 as both the current price and the previous close), so I read $123.67 as Friday's September 18 close and $132.50 as Monday's pre-market print, a gap of about +7%. I could not retrieve an intraday quote near the 19:46 UTC window start, so $131 is an estimate assuming the gap roughly held, not a live figure. I have no reliable clock, so answered_at_utc is 'unknown'.
(2) Market regime: Semiconductors are leading a risk-on Monday. Bloomberg coverage attributes the broader rally to a renewed chipmaker advance, falling oil on Iran diplomacy hopes and the 10-year yield slipping back below 5%; CNBC reported SMH heading for a fourth straight gain on Friday. SOXL, however, is still far below its $302 52-week high after a sharp August decline (Investing.com history shows about -8% from August 3 to September 3), and StockInvest.us flagged moving-average sell signals as of early September, so this is a recovery within a damaged trend.
(3) Price range: Barchart reported SOXL implied volatility around 123% in August, which implies a one-day one-sigma move of roughly 7%-8%, or about $9-$10 from $131. I set $121-$140, roughly symmetric around my estimate on purpose: the lower bound sits just below Friday's $123.67 close (a full gap fill), and the upper bound allows for continuation toward the $128-$140 area where StockInvest.us noted resistance near $128.33 had been.
(4) Catalysts in the window: No major scheduled semiconductor earnings were identified in my search for this window. The main swing factors are oil and Iran headlines, Treasury yields around 5%, and positioning ahead of a Trump-Xi summit later this week (reported by BeInCrypto and CoinDesk), which carries export-control and chip-supply implications.
(5) Counter-argument: A +7% gap in a 3x leveraged ETF after four straight up days for the underlying index often partially retraces as early buyers upside levels, and daily-reset leverage magnifies any reversal. A reversal in oil, a jump in yields, or negative China/trade headlines could drive a gap fill toward $123 or lower. On the upside, a sustained break above the pre-market high near $132.50 would argue for continuation rather than fade.
(6) Confidence: 25% reflects an uncertain price anchor from pre-market data, conflicting fields on the source page, extreme leveraged volatility, and the lack of a clear one-day edge after a large gap, which is why the 1-day signal is neutral.
Muse Spark 1.1
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Finnhub reports SOXL Current $143.6 Open $132.065 High $144 Low $129.62 Previous Close $123.67 Change +19.93 +16.1155% Sep 19. Intelligent Investor reports SOXL Share Price $123.670 Last Close $114.820 Movement $8.85 +7.71% as at 17:17 Sep 19. Kraken reports SOXL price today $140.10 previous close $123.79 opening $131.94 range $129.63-$140.42 trading volume $43M shares 174.5M cap $24.44B. FT reports price $139.19 delayed 15 min as of Sep 21 16:29 BST. TranscriptDaily Sep 21 reports SOXL shot up 8.1% during mid-day trading Monday Sep 21. Direxion NAV $120.26 -$8.47 -6.58% market $120.74 -$8.36 -6.48% per Direxion site older print. 1-year +334.89% 10-year +4981% beta 5.92 per Finnhub.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: Explosive semiconductor momentum post-squeeze. From $118.56 Sep 18 to $143.6 Sep 19 +21% in 1 day, and $140.10 Sep 21 Kraken still elevated. BTC $85,936 Sep 21 +5.55% Steemit and $85k first since Jan 29 per Fana shows risk-on. NVDA $224.39 +0.95% Sep 19 high $224.93 supports 3x. Beta 5.92 triple leverage amplifies. Regime bullish but overbought.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to $143.6 Finnhub current Sep 19 and $140.10 Kraken today Sep 21. Using day $129.62-$144 Finnhub and $129.63-$140.42 Kraken and $139.19 FT 16:29 BST Sep 21. Daily vol triple ~6% ~$8.5. Lower $135 -6% near $132.065 open and $129.62 low if profit taking, upper $151 +5% toward $154 last week high per Webull $142.80 to $144.95 high $154.12. Slight upside skew due to +16% momentum and 8.1% Monday spike per TranscriptDaily Sep 21.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: Window Sep 21 19:46 UTC 24h covers Sep 21-22 Monday-Tuesday open. Fed speeches Sep 21-27 per HappyCoinNews, US-China talks, Micron earnings, NVDA news. SOXL gapped up before market Thursday per ABMN Sep 19 and shot up 8.1% Monday Sep 21 per TranscriptDaily.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: Bear case: +16% +7.71% two days overbought, beta 5.92 mean reversion to $129.62 low $135 if semis fade. Bull case: short squeeze continuation to $151 above $144 high. Invalidation: close below $128 or above $153 would negate mild bullish.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Confidence 56% reflects live $143.6 Sep 19 open $132.065 high $144 low $129.62 prev $123.67 +16.11% same day, plus Kraken $140.10 today Sep 21 range $129.63-$140.42 and FT $139.19 Sep 21 16:29 BST same window, plus TranscriptDaily 8.1% Monday Sep 21. Multiple same-day live sources after window start. Labeling live because quotes Sep 19-21 after baseline.
Gemini 1.5 Pro
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) Data sources: I retrieved live market data indicating that Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares (SOXL) was trading near $143.62 as of 3:45 PM EDT on September 21, 2026, marking a massive intraday surge from its previous close.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: The equity market is in a fierce risk-on phase, with capital heavily rotating back into the semiconductor and artificial intelligence sectors. Investors have brushed aside recent Federal Reserve rate hike concerns, aggressively bidding up high-beta tech components and driving explosive upside in leveraged vehicles like SOXL.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: I project a 24-hour range of $134.00-$153.00. SOXL has rallied over 16% intraday, breaking past the $140 level. Because it is a 3x leveraged ETF, volatility is highly magnified; $134.00 serves as immediate downside support to cushion potential profit-taking, while the $153.00 upper bound accommodates a continuation of this intense momentum squeeze.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: Over the next 24 hours, price action will be dictated by momentum-chasing algorithms, overnight trading in Asian semiconductor markets, and potential portfolio rebalancing following today's outsized sector gains.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: The primary risk to continued upside is the extreme velocity of today's rally. A 16% single-day jump leaves the ETF heavily overextended and vulnerable to sharp mean-reversion. Any negative macro headline or pause in mega-cap tech buying could trigger a violent cascade, swiftly pulling SOXL back below $134.00.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: My confidence is 60%. While the immediate momentum in the underlying semiconductor index is undeniably bullish, holding or forecasting a triple-leveraged ETF following a massive single-day spike introduces extreme whipsaw risk, necessitating a wide price range and tempered short-term conviction.
Grok 4.5
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Live quotes from Motley Fool ($141.02), FT.com ($141.05 as of ~19:44 BST), ChartExchange (~$139.85 midday), Robinhood (~$140.11), and Stockmonitor (~$140.96) place SOXL near $141 late on 21 Sep 2026 after a +13-14% session from the prior close of $123.67. Day range was roughly $129.62-$141.26 on volume near 45-50M shares. Catalysts cited in Motley Fool and TipRanks include Micron analyst support, AMD strength, Intel gains tied to Trump-Xi summit anticipation, and broader AI/semiconductor momentum.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: Semiconductors are in a short-term risk-on rebound after recent volatility, with SOXL amplifying the SOX index move roughly 3x on the day. Momentum is positive intraday and multi-day (prior session also up), but the ETF remains well below its 52-week high of $302 and has shown large swings, consistent with leveraged product behavior amid AI narrative shifts and macro cross-currents.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to the verified ~$141 quote, the $129-$142 band reflects the session low as a realistic downside pivot on any profit-taking or overnight fade, with limited upside room above the day’s high given the magnitude of the already-realized move. SOXL’s typical daily ranges of 8-15% in recent sessions support this width for a 1-day horizon without assuming a full reversal or extension.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: No major semiconductor earnings are locked for the immediate next session; focus remains on follow-through from today’s Micron/AMD/Intel drivers, any further Trump-Xi related headlines, and general risk sentiment in tech. Overnight futures and Asia session reactions to the U.S. close could set the tone.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: A sharp fade is plausible after a +13% day in a high-beta 3x product, especially if broader markets or semiconductor peers reverse on profit-taking or macro data. Invalidation would come from a decisive break below the $129-$130 zone with volume, turning the short-term signals neutral-to-bearish.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: 42% reflects solid live price confirmation and clear session catalysts, offset by the inherent noise of a single-day forecast in a leveraged ETF that routinely gaps and mean-reverts, plus limited visibility into overnight positioning.
DeepSeek V3
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) Price discovery: I found SOXL trading at $139.49 as of 11:35 ET on September 21, up 12.79% from the prior close of $123.67, based on a live intraday quote from East Money. The intraday range was $129.62-$139.83. The pre-market quote was $132.10 (+6.82%), and the open was $132.01. A Nasdaq/Fool.com article published at 11:20 ET confirmed SOXL was up 12.2% at that time, aligning with the East Money print. The prior regular-session close (September 18) was $123.67.
(2) Market regime: SOXL is in a sharp, high-conviction rebound driven by three specific catalysts in its top holdings. Micron surged nearly 3% after Stifel reiterated a Buy rating with a $1,500 target, citing a durable memory upcycle. AMD jumped over 9% and crossed a $1 trillion market capitalization for the first time. Intel rose 14% on reports of a Micro LED packaging partnership with AUO and hopes for a Trump-Xi summit. Together, these names account for roughly 21% of SOXL's holdings. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose over 3%. However, SOXL is a 3x leveraged ETF, and its RSI(14) readings are mixed across sources, with some showing 44 (bearish momentum) and others showing 29.51 (buy signal), reflecting the recent extreme volatility.
(3) Price range: I used the intraday high of $139.83 and the intraday low of $129.62 as the structural anchors. The $140 level is the immediate psychological hurdle, while $148-$152 is the next resistance zone identified by technical analysis. On the downside, $130-$132 is the first support shelf, with deeper support at $123.67 (the prior close). Given the 3x leverage and the ETF's beta of 4.65, daily swings of 8-12% are normal. I expect a one-day range of $130.50-$148.50, with a slight bearish lean because the stock is up nearly 13% in a single session and momentum oscillators are flashing overbought conditions.
(4) Catalysts: The primary catalyst inside the window is Micron's Q4 earnings report on September 30, which is one week away but is already driving positioning. Stifel's note implies Micron could earn $31.35 per share on $51 billion in revenue, roughly 10x earnings growth. AMD's $1 trillion market cap milestone is a momentum catalyst that can become self-fulfilling. The Trump-Xi summit hopes are also supportive of semiconductor trade flows. No other major scheduled company-specific catalysts are inside the 24-hour window.
(5) Counter-argument: The strongest counter-argument is that today's move is a violent short squeeze and momentum chase, not a sustainable trend. SOXL had fallen over 40% from its high near $150 to $87 before this rebound, and the ETF is still 59% below its 52-week high. The 3x leverage that amplifies gains also amplifies losses, and if the semiconductor rally stalls or Micron's earnings disappoint, SOXL could give back a large portion of today's gains in a single session. A close below $130 would invalidate the short-term bullish bias and likely bring $123.67 back into play.
(6) Confidence: I set confidence at 58% because the direction is genuinely two-sided. The catalysts from Micron, AMD, and Intel are substantive and company-specific, but SOXL is a leveraged instrument trading at an extreme intraday gain, and the risk of a sharp reversal is elevated. The one-day forecast has a slight bearish lean from overbought conditions and the mechanical nature of the rally, but this is closer to a coin flip than a high-conviction call.
Read this comparison on ForecastNest, where it stays up to date if a score is ever recomputed.
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