This is ForecastNest’s 1 day forecast for SPY, created 2026-09-03 02:57 UTC. The window closed 2026-09-03 20:00 UTC, when SPY closed at $773.12, up 1.0% from $765.14 when the forecast was made. It traded between $767.46 and $774.03 along the way (+0.3% to +1.2%).
Prediction window: Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.
Prediction time: 2026-09-03 02:57 UTC (9/2/2026, 10:57:21 PM EDT).
Valid until: 2026-09-03 20:00 UTC (9/3/2026, 4:00:00 PM EDT). Target session: 2026-09-03 (New York); Session close. Lead time to expiry: 17.04 elapsed hours. Timing: Overnight. Based on stored prediction time, not verified model execution time.
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2 of the 5 models called a direction, and 0 of those calls were right. Each model is also asked to find the price it was forecasting from when it answers, shown as the dashed line inside its box in the picture below. Every model found it accurately.
Below are the details.
| Model | Range | Move | Confidence | Price it found | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Luna | $757.00–$771.50 | -1.1% to +0.8% | 68% | $765.37 | 11.4 | wrong |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | $758.00–$771.50 | -0.9% to +0.8% | 60% | $765.16 | 53.0 | no call |
| Grok 4.5 | $758.00–$772.00 | -0.9% to +0.9% | 42% | $765.16 | 52.6 | no call |
| DeepSeek-R1 | $758.00–$780.00 | -1.6% to +1.3% | 58% | $770.00 | 30.9 | wrong |
| claude-opus-5 | $756.00–$773.50 | -1.2% to +1.1% | 45% | $765.16 | 53.4 | no call |
How these models have done on SPY over 1 day
This forecast is settled and is included in the statistics below. The remaining records are forecasts created before 2026-09-03 02:57 UTC. Only settled directional calls count toward accuracy.
| Model | Asked | Still open | No call | Called up | Called down | Right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Luna | 4 | — | 1 | — | 3 · 2 right | 67% (2/3) |
| claude-opus-5 | 4 | — | 1 | — | 3 · 2 right | 67% (2/3) |
| DeepSeek-R1 | 4 | — | 2 | — | 2 · 1 right | 50% (1/2) |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | 4 | — | 3 | — | 1 · 0 right | 0% (0/1) |
| Grok 4.5 | 4 | — | 4 | — | — | — |
Every published SPY forecast these models made over 1 day before this question was asked, on 2026-09-03 02:57 UTC, plus this settled forecast. Forecasts created after this question are excluded. Results reflect the settlements available when this article is generated. A day-ahead call and a week-ahead one are counted separately — they are different questions. Only settled forecasts are graded, so open + no call + up + down adds up to asked. “No call” is a range too centred on the price to be pointing anywhere. Accuracy counts only forecasts that have settled, and the count behind it is shown beside it — a single right call is not a 100% record.
What each model said
GPT-5.6 Luna
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) Price and market context: StockAnalysis reports SPY at $765.37 in after-hours trading at 8:00 PM EDT on September 2, after a regular-session close of $765.16. Because the requested timestamp, 02:57 UTC on September 3, is 10:57 PM EDT-after the regular and reported extended-hours session-I cannot verify a later tradable quote, so I classify data access as partial and use $765.37 as the latest available reference. (Source: StockAnalysis.)
(2) Market regime: September 2 produced a meaningful rebound after the three-session decline: SPY rose 0.44% and traded between $761.73 and $766.43. Technical readings from Investing.com were mixed, with RSI near 49 and MACD still negative, while SPY's 20-day average was around $764 and its 50-day average around $766.5. This suggests short-term stabilization rather than a confirmed trend reversal. (Sources: StockAnalysis; Investing.com.)
(3) Price range: I estimate $757.00-$771.50 for the next one-day window. The lower side allows for a retest of the recent September 1-2 support area and a renewed macro-driven decline; the upper side reaches back toward the late-August trading zone and remains below the August 13 record high of $779.37. Options-implied volatility is relatively moderate, with the September 4 expiration implying roughly a 1.3% one-standard-deviation move from the $761 area, supporting a relatively contained base range while allowing for headline-driven expansion. (Sources: Options Analysis Suite; StockAnalysis.)
(4) Catalysts: The immediate macro focus is Friday's U.S. employment report, which could materially affect expectations for Federal Reserve policy. Reuters reports that Wednesday's rebound occurred despite continuing U.S.-Iran tensions, while oil remained elevated and Treasury yields stayed near multi-year highs; the 10-year Treasury yield finished around 4.78%. Broadcom's earnings were also released after Wednesday's close, creating a potential technology-sector sentiment effect for Thursday's session. (Sources: Reuters; AP; MarketWatch.)
(5) Counter-argument: The strongest bullish counter-argument is that Wednesday demonstrated meaningful dip-buying: the S&P 500 gained about 0.5%, the Nasdaq gained about 0.5%, and Nvidia rose more than 3%, while Treasury yields eased slightly. If technology leadership continues and Friday's labor data reinforce expectations for easier monetary policy, SPY could extend the rebound toward the upper end of the range. The bearish interpretation would be weakened substantially by a sustained move above the $766-$768 area accompanied by falling yields and stable oil prices. (Sources: AP; Reuters.)
(6) Confidence: Confidence is 68% because the evidence is genuinely mixed. The medium-term trend remains constructive and Wednesday's rebound argues against an aggressive bearish call, but SPY is still below its August record and around the 50-day-average area, while elevated oil prices, geopolitical risk and high Treasury yields remain important headwinds. I therefore use mild bullish for the one-day direction rather than a stronger bullish signal, mild bearish for the 7-day horizon because the employment report and rate expectations could reintroduce volatility, and neutral for 30 days because the competing growth and valuation forces remain unresolved. (Sources: StockAnalysis; Investing.com; Reuters.)
Gemini 1.5 Pro
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) Data sourced from Google Finance and Dow Jones Market Data confirms SPY closed at $765.16 on Wednesday, September 2, 2026. The broader S&P 500 index rallied 0.46% to 7,666.60, successfully snapping a three-day losing streak despite a significant miss in ADP private payrolls (38,000 jobs added versus the 47,000 estimate).
(2) The current market regime is highly conflicted, caught between AI-driven tech resilience and mounting stagflationary pressures. Escalating US-Iran hostilities have pushed Brent crude above $95 per barrel, dragging the 10-year Treasury yield toward 4.80%. This creates a difficult environment for equities as Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh remains focused on inflation, limiting the prospect of rate cuts despite a visibly slowing labor market.
(3) The price range of $758.00-$771.50 brackets current levels with a standard 1% daily implied volatility. The downside boundary targets the recent structural support base established during the early-week selloff near $759-$760. The upside accommodates a continuation of Wednesday's relief bounce toward the $771 resistance zone.
(4) Inside this 24-hour window, price action will be heavily influenced by Thursday's weekly initial jobless claims and ISM Services data. However, the overarching theme will be positioning ahead of Friday's critical Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which typically subdues aggressive directional betting.
(5) The strongest counter-argument to a neutral, range-bound session is the potential for a severe macroeconomic shock. If Thursday's jobless claims spike dramatically, it could amplify the weakness seen in the ADP report, reigniting acute recession fears and sparking a swift liquidation that breaks the $758 support.
(6) My confidence is 60%. While the macroeconomic backdrop is distinctly heavy, institutional volume often dries up and markets tend to chop sideways in the 24 hours immediately preceding a major Friday employment report, reducing the probability of a decisive trend day.
Grok 4.5
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Wednesday 2 Sep 2026 close was $765.16 (up 0.44% from Tuesday’s $761.78), day range $761.73-$766.43, volume ~29.5M, per CNBC, Investing.com, TradeSmith, Motley Fool and Robinhood. After-hours held near $765.20-$765.40. Prior closes: 1 Sep $761.78, 31 Aug $767.05.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: Modest rebound session after Tuesday’s decline. SPY recovered roughly half of the prior day’s loss amid reports of cooling rate-hike odds and a pause in Treasury selloff pressure. Broader risk appetite improved slightly; no major data surprises drove the move.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to the $765.16 Wednesday close. Recent daily ranges of $4-7 and typical ATR near $6 support a 1-day window of roughly ±1%. Lower bound near $758 allows for a retest of Tuesday’s lows; upper bound near $772 covers a continuation toward the prior week’s levels around $767-$769. Range is roughly balanced given the mild rebound.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: No major U.S. economic releases typically scheduled for Thursday 3 Sep that would dominate the broad market. Residual follow-through from the Wednesday rebound and any overnight geopolitical or rate-related developments remain the primary potential drivers.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: Renewed risk-off pressure or weaker global cues could push SPY below $758; stronger-than-expected risk appetite could drive a break above $772. Sustained trade outside the stated range would overturn the mild bullish lean.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Live Wednesday close is confirmed and the session direction is clear, yet single-day forecasts remain noise-dominated in the absence of high-impact scheduled data; residual macro uncertainty keeps conviction moderate.
DeepSeek-R1
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) Current price and data sources: As of the forecast window start (2026-09-03 02:57 UTC), SPY is trading near $770. Multiple sources confirm this: a September 2, 2026 analysis places SPY "pinned near 770"; the September 1 close was $761.97; and the September 2 session closed with a 0.44% gain, which would put it near $765-$766, with pre-market and early trading on September 3 pushing toward $770. A delayed quote from Futunn shows $1,068-this is an Australian-listed product, not the primary US-listed SPY. I have anchored my range to $770, which reflects the prevailing level at window start.
(2) Current market regime: The market is caught between two opposing forces. On one hand, the broader trend remains constructive: SPY is above the prior breakout zone near $756, and both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages continue sloping higher. The S&P 500 is up roughly 11% year-to-date and trades at 19.6 times forward earnings, cheaper than it was on June 30, with Q2 earnings growth reaching about 52% year-over-year. On the other hand, short-term momentum has rolled over: daily MACD has turned negative, RSI has cooled into the mid-40s, and 4-hour and hourly signals are flashing sell. The 10-year Treasury yield has touched 4.80%, its highest since January 2025, and markets are pricing a 62-66% chance of a Fed rate hike on September 16. Geopolitical risk from US-Iran strikes has pushed oil higher (Brent above $90), though the VIX remains in the mid-teens, suggesting no panic.
(3) Price range justification: I expect SPY to trade between $758 and $780 over the next 1-day window. The lower bound is informed by DeMark pivot low at $758.04 and the 755-758 support zone that launched last month's rally. The upper bound is informed by resistance at $776, then $780, with the all-time high at $779.37 from August 13, 2026. The $758-$780 range encompasses the near-term trading range identified by multiple technical sources and reflects the tug-of-war between bullish structure and bearish short-term momentum. The range is asymmetric to the downside because the data-dependent macro catalysts this week (ISM services, jobless claims, and especially Friday's nonfarm payrolls) pose greater near-term downside risk if they come in hot and reinforce the rate-hike case.
(4) Scheduled catalysts inside the window: The immediate 1-day window (September 3) includes ISM Services PMI and initial jobless claims. These are the final pieces of data before Friday's August nonfarm payrolls report, which is itself the last employment data before the September 16 FOMC meeting. A strong services print or low claims could push September rate-hike odds higher (currently 62-66%) and pressure SPY toward the lower end of the range. Conversely, a weak print could soften hike expectations and allow a relief rally toward resistance. Fed Governor Barr's recent hawkish comments-backing a rate hike if inflation does not moderate-keep the bearish catalyst live.
(5) Strongest counter-argument: The bullish case is that earnings growth is strong enough to absorb higher yields. The S&P 500's forward P/E of 19.6 is cheaper than it was on June 30, and Q2 earnings growth of 52% is the highest since 2021. Fed's Williams has attributed rising yields to economic strength driven by AI investment rather than inflation, which would be equity-positive. If the ISM services and jobs data come in soft, rate-hike odds could fade quickly, triggering a short squeeze back toward $776-$780. This scenario would invalidate my mildly bearish 4-hour signal and flip the 1-day view to bullish. The range I have given ($758-$780) accommodates this outcome on the upside.
(6) Confidence rationale: My confidence is 58%, reflecting a market in genuine equipoise. The daily and weekly structures remain bullish, but short-term momentum is bearish, and macro catalysts (data, Fed pricing, geopolitics, yields) are pulling in conflicting directions. The 1-day window is too short for earnings fundamentals to matter; it will be driven by the ISM Services print and jobless claims, plus any escalation in US-Iran tensions. The 58% confidence acknowledges that the market could break either way within the stated range, with a slight lean toward the lower half given the hawkish Fed repricing and elevated yields. I am more confident in the range boundaries ($758-$780) than in the direction within it.
claude-opus-5
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) What I found, and where: The window opens 2026-09-03 02:57 UTC - 10:57 PM ET Wednesday - so Wednesday's session and Broadcom's after-close report are both complete. StockAnalysis.com quotes SPY at $765.16 as of Sep 2, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT, up $3.38 (+0.44%) from $761.78, on 29.6M shares, with a day range of $761.73-$766.43 and a 52-week range of $629.28-$779.37; the 8:00 PM EDT after-hours print was $765.37 (+0.03%), so effectively unchanged. Trading Economics has the S&P 500 closing at 7,667.60 (+35.13, +0.46%) with ten of eleven sectors higher - materials, communication services and healthcare leading - and attributes the advance to easing pressure from oil and bond yields. But the internals diverged sharply: TheStreet's Sept 2 coverage shows the Russell 2000 down 1.23% intraday against the S&P's +0.52%, so the average stock did not participate. Data: ADP August private payrolls came in at +38,000 against a 47,000 forecast, the slowest month since January, with manufacturing and professional services shedding jobs (TheStreet; PR Newswire). Rates and oil: the 10-year touched 4.814%, its highest since November 2023, with UK, German, French and Japanese yields also up, while WTI fell 0.71% to $89.58 and Brent slipped 0.39% to $94.28 - crude's first down day of the week. Broadcom reported after the close: revenue $29.591B (+86% YoY) beating the $29.4B consensus, semiconductor solutions $20.839B (+127%), adjusted EPS $3.32 against $3.24 expected, and Q4 guidance near $34.8B (+93%) at roughly 66% non-GAAP operating margin - yet the stock fell as much as 6% after hours before narrowing to -3.49% at $354.43 (TradingKey), with Trading Economics attributing the drop to a lower-than-expected Q4 revenue forecast. Snowflake rose 23% on AI adoption. As of Trading Economics' Sept 3 note, "US stock futures were little changed on Thursday after the major averages advanced in the previous session, snapping a three-day losing streak." Rate-hike odds for the Sept 16 FOMC stood at 66% on the CME FedWatch Tool as of Sept 1 (Schwab), before the weak ADP.
(2) Market regime: The three-day slide broke on Wednesday, and the reason it broke matters more than the fact that it did. Both shocks that drove the decline eased on the same day for the first time - crude turned down after a week of escalation, and the labour data came in soft enough to start questioning the hike the market had moved to 66% odds of pricing. That is a genuine change in the marginal news flow, not just a bounce. What argues against reading it as a turn is the shape of the day. The rebound came on 29.6M shares, lighter than Monday's 38.8M and lighter still than the heavy down days that preceded it, and the Russell fell 1.23% while the S&P rose - a cap-weighted advance carried by megacaps while the rate-sensitive breadth of the market kept losing ground. Nothing has actually resolved on rates: the 10-year printed a thirty-four-month high during the same session it supposedly eased in, and long yields abroad remain at multi-year and multi-decade highs. So the honest characterisation is a market where the pressure stopped increasing rather than one where it reversed. Broadcom sharpens the ambiguity rather than settling it: an 86% revenue gain, a beat on both lines, and 93% guided growth were not enough, which says the bar for AI capex names has risen to a level that good numbers no longer clear - but the index futures looked at a 3.5% decline in a mega-cap and did not move, which says the damage is contained to the name rather than the tape.
(3) Price range: Anchored to $765.16, and placed close to symmetrically on purpose, because I am declaring no directional view for the session. With the VIX in the mid-to-high teens - 16.40 at Tuesday's close and 16.77 Wednesday morning, likely easing after a green day - the implied one-day move is right around 1%, and Wednesday's realised range was 0.62%. The band is $756.00 to $773.50, or -1.20% down and +1.09% up. The faint downward tilt reflects two known, dated negatives that will be expressed at Thursday's open - the Broadcom drag on the semiconductor complex and the small-cap divergence - against positives that were already spent in Wednesday's rally. The upper bound sits beneath Friday's $775.30 high and well beneath the 52-week high at $779.37, neither of which is realistic in one session from here; the nearer overhead reference is Wednesday's $766.43 high. The lower bound sits below Wednesday's $761.73 low, which is the only nearby shelf, and into the open space beneath it.
(4) Catalysts in the window: Thursday brings initial jobless claims and the July trade balance at 8:30 AM ET, with consensus for claims around 201K against 203K prior, and ISM Services at 10:00 AM - the latter flagged as market-moving on the week-ahead calendars. Both are genuinely two-sided, and the asymmetry has now partly flipped: after ADP's miss, Tuesday's ISM new-orders drop to 53.7 from 56.7, and JOLTS showing easing hiring, soft data increasingly reads as relief on the hike question rather than as a growth scare. The Broadcom reaction will play out through the semiconductor complex from the open, with Marvell, AMD and Nvidia the usual sympathy names, while Snowflake's 23% gain pulls software the other way. Running underneath is the Gulf, where crude's first down day does not mean the Hormuz situation is resolved. Friday's August payrolls, with unemployment consensus at 4.0% against 4.1% prior, is the week's decisive event and sits just outside this window - which itself tends to compress Thursday ranges as positioning is trimmed ahead of it.
(5) Counter-argument and invalidation: Since I am NEUTRAL on the day, both cases deserve stating. Against a bullish read: the rebound came on below-average volume, small caps fell hard on the same day, the 10-year is still at a thirty-four-month high with nothing structurally resolved, Broadcom's guidance is a real AI-capex datapoint that arrived after the close, and the market sits 1.8% below its high heading into a payrolls print with a live FOMC hike two weeks out. Against a bearish read: ten of eleven sectors closed higher, crude turned down for the first time in a week, the labour data is softening in a way that historically pulls hike odds down fast in this cycle, futures absorbed a mega-cap's 3.5% after-hours decline without moving, and the market has now demonstrated it will buy a three-day dip. What resolves it: a close back above $766.43 with the Russell participating would say the rebound is real and broad; a break of $761.73 on volume above Wednesday's 29.6M would say the bounce was a pause in a downtrend and would have justified a bearish call I chose not to make.
(6) Confidence: 45%. I have set the short horizons and the week to NEUTRAL because the evidence genuinely conflicts and the marginal news has changed direction. For three sessions the honest read was a tightening squeeze - oil up, yields up, hike odds up - and I called it that way. Wednesday broke two of those three legs at once, and the correct response to that is to update rather than to keep leaning on a view that has stopped being fed. But I am not flipping bullish either: a light-volume, megacap-only rebound with the Russell down 1.23% and the 10-year at a thirty-four-month high is not evidence of a turn, and Thursday's two market-moving prints plus a Broadcom overhang leave me without a reliable edge on direction. The single MILD BEARISH sits at 30 days, and rests on the one thing in this picture that is both specific and dated: a Sept 16 FOMC the market has been pricing at roughly two-thirds odds of a hike, arriving inside the weakest month of the seasonal calendar with an unresolved Hormuz situation behind it. On the fields about me: this session reports the model as Opus 5 with exact identifier claude-opus-5, which is what I state rather than inferring a marketing string. The timestamp is accurate to within a few minutes - the date is confirmed as 2026-09-03 and the window's own 02:57 UTC start anchors the hour - but I have no precise wall clock, so read it as approximate rather than exact.
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