This is ForecastNest’s 1 day forecast for IONQ, created 2026-09-02 12:44 UTC. The window closed 2026-09-03 20:00 UTC, when IONQ closed at $39.05, up 3.3% from $37.79 when the forecast was made. It traded between $36.79 and $39.78 along the way (-2.6% to +5.3%).
Prediction window: Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.
Prediction time: 2026-09-02 12:44 UTC (9/2/2026, 8:44:59 AM EDT).
Valid until: 2026-09-03 20:00 UTC (9/3/2026, 4:00:00 PM EDT). Target session: 2026-09-03 (New York); Session close. Lead time to expiry: 31.25 elapsed hours. Timing: Premarket. Based on stored prediction time, not verified model execution time.
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4 of the 5 models called a direction, and 3 of those calls were right. Each model is also asked to find the price it was forecasting from when it answers, shown as the dashed line inside its box in the picture below. Every model found it accurately.
Below are the details.
| Model | Range | Move | Confidence | Price it found | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Luna | $35.50–$40.25 | -6.0% to +6.5% | 77% | $37.78 | 82.0 | right |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | $36.20–$39.30 | -4.2% to +4.0% | 65% | $37.78 | 52.5 | no call |
| Grok 4.5 | $35.00–$40.50 | -6.9% to +7.7% | 40% | $37.60 | 78.4 | right |
| Claude Opus 4.6 | $35.00–$41.00 | -7.4% to +8.5% | 45% | $37.78 | 79.1 | right |
| claude-opus-5 | $34.70–$40.50 | -8.0% to +7.4% | 44% | $37.70 | 30.3 | wrong |
How these models have done on IONQ over 1 day
This forecast is settled and is included in the statistics below. The remaining records are forecasts created before 2026-09-02 12:44 UTC. Only settled directional calls count toward accuracy.
| Model | Asked | Still open | No call | Called up | Called down | Right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Luna | 4 | — | 1 | 3 · 3 right | — | 100% (3/3) |
| Grok 4.5 | 4 | — | 0 | 3 · 2 right | 1 · 0 right | 50% (2/4) |
| Claude Opus 4.6 | 4 | — | 0 | 3 · 2 right | 1 · 0 right | 50% (2/4) |
| claude-opus-5 | 4 | — | 0 | — | 4 · 1 right | 25% (1/4) |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | 3 | — | 1 | 1 · 0 right | 1 · 0 right | 0% (0/2) |
Every published IONQ forecast these models made over 1 day before this question was asked, on 2026-09-02 12:44 UTC, plus this settled forecast. Forecasts created after this question are excluded. Results reflect the settlements available when this article is generated. A day-ahead call and a week-ahead one are counted separately — they are different questions. Only settled forecasts are graded, so open + no call + up + down adds up to asked. “No call” is a range too centred on the price to be pointing anywhere. Accuracy counts only forecasts that have settled, and the count behind it is shown beside it — a single right call is not a 100% record.
What each model said
GPT-5.6 Luna
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) Price and market context: The latest available IONQ quote is $37.78, with FinancialContent reporting a September 2 last trade at 5:41 AM EDT and Investing.com showing the September 1 close at $37.78. I therefore use $37.78 as the current reference for the 12:44 UTC window. IONQ fell 3.66% on September 1 from $39.31, with an intraday low of $37.59. (Sources: FinancialContent; MarketBeat.) ([financialcontent.com](https://www.financialcontent.com/quote/NY%3AIONQ/historical?utm_source=chatgpt.com))
(2) Technical synthesis: Short-term momentum is clearly weak. MarketBeat records declines from $42.42 on August 27 to $39.20 on August 28 and then $37.78 on September 1, while the stock is down about 3.34% over five trading days. The sequence of lower closes and the break below $38 favors bearish short-term momentum, although the stock remains capable of large countertrend rebounds because of its high volatility. (Source: MarketBeat.) ([marketbeat.com](https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NYSE/IONQ/chart/?utm_source=chatgpt.com))
(3) Price range: I estimate a one-day range of $35.50-$40.25 from the $37.78 reference. The lower bound allows for another roughly 6% decline and is consistent with the recent $37.59 intraday low plus the unusually large daily swings seen in late August; the upper bound allows for a roughly 6.5% rebound toward the $40 area. This is deliberately asymmetric toward the downside because the immediate price structure is weak, rather than centering the range mechanically around the current quote. (Source: MarketBeat historical prices.) ([marketbeat.com](https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NYSE/IONQ/chart/?utm_source=chatgpt.com))
(4) Catalysts: There is no scheduled IonQ earnings release inside this one-day window; the company's official events calendar lists its next major company event as Investor Day on September 8 at 12:30 PM ET. Quantum World Congress, where IonQ is a platinum sponsor, is scheduled for September 23-25. Meanwhile, today's broader market backdrop is unfavorable for high-beta growth stocks: Reuters reports rising oil prices and Treasury yields amid U.S.-Iran tensions, while Nasdaq 100 futures were down 0.52% early Wednesday. (Sources: IonQ investor relations; Quantum World Congress; Reuters.) ([investors.ionq.com](https://investors.ionq.com/events-and-presentations/default.aspx?utm_source=chatgpt.com))
(5) Counter-argument: The strongest bullish counter-argument is IonQ's rapidly expanding operating story. Second-quarter revenue reached $80.1 million, and the SkyWater acquisition has created a more vertically integrated quantum platform; recent company-related research news also highlighted new quantum-chemistry and error-decoding work. The September 8 Investor Day is close enough that investors could begin positioning for new technology or commercial announcements. A strong sector-wide rebound or positive IonQ-specific announcement would invalidate the immediate bearish setup. (Sources: IonQ investor materials; The Quantum Insider.) ([thequantuminsider.com](https://thequantuminsider.com/2026/09/01/qc-ware-ionq-hybrid-quantum-chemistry-drug-discovery/?utm_source=chatgpt.com))
(6) Confidence: Confidence is 77% because the price trend, recent downside acceleration, and broader risk-off environment point in the same short-term direction. I keep confidence below 80% because IONQ is highly volatile and its valuation is driven partly by expectations around future quantum-computing milestones, making sudden rebounds common. The 7-day signal remains bearish because the stock faces a weak technical backdrop before the September 8 Investor Day, while the 30-day signal is neutral because that event and the September 23-25 Quantum World Congress could materially change sentiment. (Sources: MarketBeat; IonQ investor relations; Quantum World Congress.) ([investors.ionq.com](https://investors.ionq.com/events-and-presentations/default.aspx?utm_source=chatgpt.com))
Gemini 1.5 Pro
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) Data sourced from financial platforms including GuruFocus and StockInvest.us confirms that IONQ closed at $37.78 on Tuesday, September 1, 2026, dropping 3.89% on the day. The stock reached an intraday high of $39.25 and a low of $37.59 amidst a broader market pullback.
(2) The current market regime for this asset is characterized by a high-volatility short-term downtrend. Since peaking near $46.84 in mid-August, IONQ has been subjected to persistent selling pressure and is currently trading below its short-term moving averages, reflecting cautious sentiment and a near-term distribution phase.
(3) The price range of $36.20-$39.30 accounts for the stock's recent daily average volatility of approximately 5.7%. The downside boundary targets the accumulated volume support level near $35.92-$36.00, while the upside is capped by immediate overhead resistance around $39.31 (the previous day's close).
(4) Inside this 24-hour window, the primary catalyst will be early-September institutional portfolio repositioning and broader market beta following Tuesday's weak US manufacturing data. There are no scheduled company-specific earnings releases within the next 24 hours to independently override sector sentiment.
(5) The strongest counter-argument is that the stock is rapidly approaching an oversold technical state following its steep two-week correction. A broader market short-covering rally or an unexpected influx of tech dip-buyers could prompt a swift mean-reversion bounce toward the $40.00 psychological level, invalidating the near-term bearish bias.
(6) My confidence is 65%. While the prevailing technical trend clearly favors the downside, predicting a single-day directional move for a speculative, high-beta equity immediately following a multi-day decline carries inherent risks of unpredictable intraday whiplash.
Grok 4.5
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Tuesday 1 Sep 2026 close was $37.78 (down 3.89% from Monday’s $39.31), day range $37.59-$39.25, volume ~14M, per Yahoo Finance, StockAnalysis, Stocknear, Motley Fool and CNBC. Pre-market Wednesday 2 Sep quoted near $37.57-$37.67. 52-week range $25.89-$84.64.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: High-beta quantum-computing name continuing to soften after Monday’s modest rebound. Tuesday’s decline aligned with broader equity weakness and semiconductor pressure; pre-market remains slightly lower. Speculative growth stocks remain sensitive to risk sentiment and rate/geopolitical headlines.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to the ~$37.60 pre-market level (last close $37.78). Recent daily ranges of $1.5-$3+ and beta ~3.3 support potential 1-day moves of 5-8%. Lower bound near $35 allows for extension of the selloff; upper bound near $40.50 covers a rebound toward the prior close and recent highs. Range is modestly wider on the downside reflecting short-term momentum.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: No company-specific events or earnings for Wednesday 2 Sep. Broader market follow-through and any overnight macro or geopolitical developments remain the primary potential drivers; next earnings estimated early November.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: A sharp risk-on rebound in growth/tech could push IONQ above $40.50; accelerated selling or weaker risk appetite could drive a break below $35. Sustained trade outside the stated range would overturn the mild bearish lean.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Live Tuesday close and pre-market quotes confirm the recent direction, yet single-day forecasts for high-volatility speculative names remain noise-dominated; absence of stock-specific catalysts keeps conviction moderate.
Claude Opus 4.6
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) What I found, and where: Current price sourced from Yahoo Finance real-time data as of 2026-09-02 at 12:44 UTC (based on Sep 1 close and overnight/pre-market trading): $37.78, down -3.89% from the prior close of $39.31. Robinhood shows the stock trading at $37.70, with a daily range of $37.59-$39.25. Kraken shows pre-market at $37.15, -1.69%, while Longbridge reports quantum computing stocks weakening in pre-market with IONQ at $37.16. The 52-week range is $25.89-$84.64. Beta is elevated at 3.30. Average analyst projected level is $67.68 (Strong Buy consensus), though the stock is trading far below that.
(2) Current market regime as I read it: IonQ is in a sharp post-earnings pullback. The stock surged after record Q2 results (revenue +287% YoY to $80.1M) on Aug 5, but has since retraced heavily - down approximately 55% from its $84.64 52-week high. The stock is now trading below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, signaling technical weakness. Volume on Sep 1 was 14.16M, below the 18.24M average, suggesting selling pressure without panic. The pre-market weakness (-1.64% to -1.69%) indicates continued selling interest. Short interest remains elevated, creating potential for short squeezes but also reflecting skepticism. The broader quantum computing sector is under pressure, with peer stocks also declining in pre-market trading.
(3) Price range justification: Upper bound $41.00 - this sits above the Sep 1 high of $39.25 and represents a ~8.5% recovery move; a break above $41 would signal a potential reversal of the recent downtrend and a test of the $41.75 support-turned-resistance level cited by technical analysts. Lower bound $35.00 - this is ~7.4% below current and sits below the Sep 2 low of $37.59; a break below $37.59 would expose the next support zone around $35.00. The range is asymmetric: more room above ($3.22) than below ($2.78), reflecting a mild bearish 1-day view given the pre-market weakness and technical breakdown, but acknowledging that oversold conditions could attract dip-buyers. The 14-day ATR of ~$3.00 supports a ±8-10% 1-day range.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: The 1-day window (Sep 2) has no company-specific catalysts. However, the broader quantum computing sector is under pressure, and any macro or sector news could move the stock. The key upcoming catalyst is IonQ's Investor Day on September 8, 2026, where management is expected to provide details on SkyWater integration, the logical qubit roadmap, and updated production targets for the 'Tempo' and 'Nexus' platforms. This event is outside the 1-day window but may create anticipatory positioning. Additionally, IonQ's outstanding public warrants expire on September 30, 2026, creating a potential overhang as investors watch for dilution. No earnings or SEC filings are due in the next 24 hours (next earnings estimated Nov 4, 2026).
(5) Strongest counter-argument and what would invalidate: The strongest counter-argument is that the recent decline has overshot fundamentals. The company just reported record revenue (+287% YoY) and a drug-discovery partnership with QC Ware that achieved chemical-accuracy results within 4% of benchmark. Analyst consensus remains Strong Buy with a $67.68 target, implying ~79% upside from current levels. If dip-buyers step in at the $37.59 intraday low and the stock closes above $39.25 (the Sep 1 high), my mild bearish 1-day view would be invalidated. Conversely, if pre-market weakness accelerates and the stock breaks below $37.59 on volume, the downside toward $35.00 or lower could materialize quickly.
(6) Why confidence is 45%: This is a 1-day forecast for a high-beta (3.30), volatile quantum computing stock with no immediate catalyst. The pre-market weakness (-1.64% to -1.69%) and technical breakdown below key moving averages provide a modest bearish tilt. However, the stock is oversold, analyst sentiment remains bullish, and the upcoming Investor Day on Sept 8 could create early positioning. The 45% confidence reflects the genuine balance: the stock could continue its downtrend toward $35, or it could bounce off support given oversold conditions and strong fundamentals. I am not confident enough to call it BEARISH, hence MILD BEARISH for the 1-day signal, with neutral readings on shorter timeframes where noise dominates.
claude-opus-5
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) What I found, and where: The window opens 2026-09-02 12:44 UTC - 8:44 AM ET Wednesday - inside the US pre-market, so I am anchoring to a live pre-market mark rather than a stale close. StockAnalysis.com shows IONQ pre-market at $37.70, down 0.21%, timed Sep 2, 2026, 8:22 AM EDT, twenty-two minutes before the baseline. The prior close, same source, was $37.78 on Sep 1, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT, down $1.53 (-3.89%), day range $37.59-$39.25, volume 14.2M, market cap $15.01B, 52-week range $25.89-$84.64. Note the volume: 14.2M against a 20-day average near 19.4M and Monday's 38.7M, so Tuesday's decline came on thin participation. Peers fell in lockstep Tuesday - Rigetti $14.99 (-4.28%) and D-Wave $16.54 (-3.84%), both StockAnalysis.com quotes timed Sep 1, 4:00 PM EDT - and both are indicated softer pre-market at $14.70 (-1.93%, 6:15 AM) and $16.27 (-1.63%, 5:57 AM), though those prints are earlier and thinner than IONQ's. Macro at the baseline: TheStreet's Sept 2 pre-market piece puts the US 10-year at 4.814%, its highest since November 2023, inside a global bond selloff with UK, German, French and Japanese yields at multi-year or multi-decade highs; Yahoo Finance's Sept 2 blog has the 30-year at 5.27%, Brent above $95 after Trump threatened to strike Iran "much harder," VIX at 16.77, and futures at S&P -0.2%, Nasdaq-100 -0.5%. Charles Schwab's Sept 1 open note has September rate-hike odds at 66% on the CME FedWatch Tool, up from 40% a week earlier. The one genuinely new input: ADP's August report, released at 8:15 AM ET - before my anchor print - showed private payrolls up just 38,000, below expectations and the slowest pace since January, against July's 44,000 (PR Newswire, Fox Business, StockTitan). Company fundamentals are unchanged since Aug 7: Q2 revenue $80.05M (+287% YoY), FY guidance $280-290M, and roughly $3B in liquid assets, which The Motley Fool's Sept 1 piece confirms alongside a valuation of 52 times forward sales and a 53.7% drawdown from the 52-week high as of Aug 28.
(2) Market regime: Two forces are now pointed in opposite directions, which is the whole story of this window. The hostile one is the discount rate. A global bond selloff that has taken the US 10-year to a thirty-four-month high, with Brent above $95 and a reportedly closed Strait of Hormuz supplying the inflation impulse, is the single worst environment for a company valued at 52 times forward sales with no earnings - every dollar of its value sits in cash flows years out, and those are exactly what a rising long rate discounts hardest. That mechanism has done visible damage: IONQ has fallen in four of the last five sessions, from $42.46 to $37.70, and Tuesday's close at $37.78 sat within twenty cents of the session low. Structurally the name is now beneath every reference of the past week - Friday's $38.64 low and Monday's $38.43 low have both gone - and the entire basket broke together, roughly 4% across IonQ, Rigetti and D-Wave. The Motley Fool's Sept 1 study quantifies the sector's beta to exactly this kind of tape: across 23 sessions when the Nasdaq-100 fell at least 1.5%, quantum names underperformed about 74% of the time. The countervailing force arrived at 8:15 this morning. ADP at +38,000 is a soft print, and in this specific regime soft labor data has moved the hike question hard before - CNBC's Aug 7 headline had September hike odds "tumbling" after a July jobs miss. If odds retreat from 66%, the yield pressure crushing this name eases, and nothing in the market benefits more mechanically than the longest-duration asset in it. What complicates that clean story is stagflation: weak jobs alongside $95 Brent may not lower hike odds much at all, because Warsh's stated concern is inflation rather than growth. The honest reading of the tape is that the market had not resolved this either way by 8:22, with IONQ down two-tenths of a percent and index futures down two-tenths.
(3) Price range: Anchored to $37.70, and placed close to symmetrically on purpose, because I am declaring no directional view for the session. With a beta of 3.30 the one-day sigma here runs near 5%: Tuesday's realised range was 4.4% of the close, Monday's 5.4%, Friday's 8.4%. The band is $34.70 to $40.50, or -7.96% down and +7.43% up. The small residual downward tilt reflects the yield backdrop rather than any read on Wednesday's tape. The upper bound sits just beneath Monday's $40.55 high, which is the nearest genuine overhead reference and would require recovering both Tuesday's loss and the broken $38.43 shelf to reach; the 50-day average near $42.54 is far above and out of reach in a session. The lower bound sits well below Tuesday's $37.59 low, which is the only nearby support and is barely a tenth of a percent under the anchor - beneath it the chart is open until the mid-$34s.
(4) Catalysts in the window: The largest one has already fired. ADP landed at 8:15 AM, twenty-nine minutes before the window opened, so the window inherits its consequences rather than its surprise - and the first seven minutes of reaction were muted. What remains inside the window: factory and durable goods orders, the Fed's Beige Book in the afternoon, and Broadcom's fiscal Q3 report after the close, which matters here only as a read on risk appetite across speculative technology rather than as anything about IonQ. Nothing company-specific is scheduled - Q2 was reported Aug 7 and the next earnings event is not due until early November. Running underneath is the Gulf, where a warned-of US response could push crude further at any hour and feed straight back into the yield channel. Friday's August payrolls, the report that will actually settle whether ADP's weakness was signal, sits outside this window but will shape how much risk anyone carries into it.
(5) Counter-argument and invalidation: Since I am NEUTRAL on the day, both cases deserve stating. Against a bullish read: yields are at a thirty-four-month high and still rising, oil is escalating rather than fading, the stock closed Tuesday near its low, every recent support level has broken, peers are indicated lower, and a 52-times-forward-sales multiple has a long way it can compress before anything about the business changes. Against a bearish read: Tuesday's decline came on 27% below-average volume, which is drift on absent buyers rather than aggressive distribution; ADP was genuinely weak and the hike-odds market has proven responsive to labor misses in this cycle; IONQ is already down roughly 55% from its high with about $3B of cash and no financing need; it is holding materially better than Rigetti and D-Wave this morning; and short interest near 10.7% of float at under two days to cover is latent fuel for a relief move if yields turn. What resolves it: a reclaim of $38.43 and then $38.64 would say the ADP-driven rate relief is being expressed and would make my 7-day tilt wrong; a break of $37.59 on volume above Tuesday's 14.2M would say the low-volume drift has become real selling and would have justified a bearish daily call I chose not to make.
(6) Confidence: 44%. I have set the short horizons to NEUTRAL because the two governing forces genuinely cancel inside this window and I would rather abstain than manufacture a direction a 3.3-beta name will amplify either way. The macro squeeze is real, coherent, and still tightening; the freshest catalyst points the other way for precisely this kind of asset; the pre-market has resolved neither; and unlike some names this morning, IONQ is not gapping, so there is no fresh shock in the anchor to extrapolate from. The number is a little below what I would assign a diversified sector vehicle in the same spot, because a single name carries headline risk - a contract, an analyst action, a partnership - that an index averages away, and this one has repeatedly moved 6-10% on nothing but basket sentiment. The MILD BEARISH calls at 7 and 30 days rest on slower ground: Friday's payrolls, a Sept 16 FOMC the market still prices at roughly two-thirds odds of a hike, September seasonality, and a valuation that is the most rate-sensitive thing on the board while long rates make multi-decade highs globally - with the honest caveat that a second weak labor print on Friday could undercut that view. On the fields about me: the model identifier configured for this session is claude-opus-5, which is what I can state with certainty rather than guessing a marketing name - the model actually serving this turn can differ and I cannot verify it from inside. The timestamp is accurate to within a few minutes; the date is confirmed and my newest retrieved data is the 12:22 UTC pre-market print, but I have no precise wall clock, so treat it as approximate.
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