This is ForecastNest’s 1 day forecast for SPY, created 2026-09-01 02:27 UTC. The window closed 2026-09-01 20:00 UTC, when SPY closed at $761.64, down 0.7% from $766.95 when the forecast was made. It traded between $759.48 and $764.67 along the way (-1.0% to -0.3%).
Prediction window: Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.
Prediction time: 2026-09-01 02:27 UTC (8/31/2026, 10:27:04 PM EDT).
Valid until: 2026-09-01 20:00 UTC (9/1/2026, 4:00:00 PM EDT). Target session: 2026-09-01 (New York); Session close. Lead time to expiry: 17.55 elapsed hours. Timing: Overnight. Based on stored prediction time, not verified model execution time.
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2 of the 5 models called a direction, and 2 of those calls were right. Each model is also asked to find the price it was forecasting from when it answers, shown as the dashed line inside its box in the picture below. Every model found it accurately.
Below are the details.
| Model | Range | Move | Confidence | Price it found | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ChatGPT — GPT-5 | $761.00–$771.50 | -0.9% to +0.5% | 70% | $767.57 | 82.8 | right |
| Gemini — Pro | $762.50–$771.50 | -0.6% to +0.6% | 70% | $767.05 | 54.2 | no call |
| Grok | $759.50–$773.00 | -0.9% to +0.9% | 45% | $766.21 | 53.7 | no call |
| DeepSeek | $755.00–$780.00 | -1.6% to +1.7% | 48% | $767.05 | 53.0 | no call |
| Claude — Opus | $757.00–$773.50 | -1.3% to +0.8% | 47% | $767.05 | 80.3 | right |
How these models have done on SPY over 1 day
This forecast is settled and is included in the statistics below. The remaining records are forecasts created before 2026-09-01 02:27 UTC. Only settled directional calls count toward accuracy.
| Model | Asked | Still open | No call | Called up | Called down | Right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ChatGPT — GPT-5 | 2 | — | 0 | — | 2 · 2 right | 100% (2/2) |
| Claude — Opus | 2 | — | 0 | — | 2 · 2 right | 100% (2/2) |
| DeepSeek | 2 | — | 1 | — | 1 · 1 right | 100% (1/1) |
| Gemini — Pro | 2 | — | 2 | — | — | — |
| Grok | 2 | — | 2 | — | — | — |
Every published SPY forecast these models made over 1 day before this question was asked, on 2026-09-01 02:27 UTC, plus this settled forecast. Forecasts created after this question are excluded. Results reflect the settlements available when this article is generated. A day-ahead call and a week-ahead one are counted separately — they are different questions. Only settled forecasts are graded, so open + no call + up + down adds up to asked. “No call” is a range too centred on the price to be pointing anywhere. Accuracy counts only forecasts that have settled, and the count behind it is shown beside it — a single right call is not a 100% record.
What each model said
ChatGPT — GPT-5
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) Market regime: SPY closed August 31 at $767.05, down 0.30%, after trading between $764.72 and $768.00. The latest available overnight quote was $767.57 at 7:41 p.m. EDT, so the forecast is anchored to the current overnight price rather than the regular-session close. ([StockAnalysis.com][1])
(2) Technical synthesis: Short-term momentum remains mildly negative. SPY has declined from its August 13 record-area close of $777.88 to $767.05, while the August 31 session failed to recover above $768.00. The $764-$765 zone is the immediate downside support area; a sustained move back above $769-$771 would indicate that the recent weakness is being absorbed. ([StockAnalysis.com][1])
(3) Price range: I estimate a one-day range of $761.00-$771.50. The lower bound allows for a retest of the recent $762.04-$763.47 lows with additional volatility, while the upper bound allows a recovery toward the August 27-28 area around $771-$772. The range is intentionally tilted slightly downward because the latest session closed near its lower half and the macro backdrop remains risk-sensitive. ([StockAnalysis.com][1])
(4) Catalysts: The immediate backdrop remains dominated by oil, geopolitics and Federal Reserve expectations. Reuters reported that the S&P 500 fell 0.33% on August 31 as Brent crude rose above $90 and the 10-year Treasury yield reached 4.75%; markets were pricing more than a 65% chance of a September Fed rate hike. Tuesday also begins a week containing important manufacturing and labor-market data, with JOLTS scheduled at 10:00 a.m. ET and the August employment report due Friday. ([Reuters][2])
(5) Counter-argument: The strongest counter-argument is that the broader equity trend remains resilient. SPY is still close to its August record, and the August 31 decline was modest despite the sharp rise in oil and Treasury yields. A stabilization or decline in oil prices, easing geopolitical headlines, or softer economic data that reduces rate-hike expectations could quickly push SPY back toward $770-$772. The bearish short-term view would be weakened if SPY reclaims and holds the $769-$771 region. ([AP News][3])
(6) Confidence: Confidence is 70% because the immediate evidence is moderately aligned toward downside: the latest regular session declined, oil remained above $90, Treasury yields were elevated, and rate-hike expectations increased. Confidence is not higher because SPY remains in a strong longer-term uptrend and the overnight quote of $767.57 is only modestly below Monday's close, leaving substantial scope for a Tuesday reversal. The 7-day signal is therefore neutral, while the 30-day signal remains mildly bullish. ([Reuters][2])
Gemini — Pro
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) Data sourced from Google Finance and Investing.com confirms SPY ended the August 31, 2026 session at $767.05. The ETF drifted slightly lower on the day, respecting a tight intraday range with a low of $764.72 and a high of $767.99.
(2) The current market regime is characterized by high-level chop and consolidation. After peaking near $779 in mid-August, SPY has spent the last two weeks digesting gains and establishing a trading range, closing August with mild end-of-month distribution.
(3) The price range of $762.50-$771.50 assumes typical 1-day volatility for the index ETF. The downside level ($762.50) respects the established support structure from late August, while the upside target ($771.50) brackets the recent local highs before overhead supply steps in.
(4) The primary catalyst inside this 24-hour window will be the start of a new trading month and the release of key macroeconomic data, notably the ISM Manufacturing PMI, which typically dictates early-session momentum on the first business day of September.
(5) The strongest counter-argument to this range-bound forecast is the potential for a severe macro surprise. If Tuesday's manufacturing data drastically misses expectations and reignites recession fears, the $762 support could fail immediately, triggering a mechanical momentum sell-off.
(6) My confidence is 70%. Broad market ETFs usually respect recent volatility boundaries over a single session, but the first trading day of September historically carries elevated institutional reallocation risk that can stretch technical ranges.
Grok
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Monday 31 Aug 2026 close was $766.21 (down ~0.41% from Friday’s $769.35), day range $764.72-$767.62, volume ~14M, per FT.com, Investing.com, CNBC, Yahoo Finance and MarketWatch data dated 31 Aug. Prior closes: 28 Aug $769.35, 27 Aug $771.10. 52-week range $629.28-$779.37. ATR recently near $6 from prior technical snapshots.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: Broad equity ETF near recent highs after a solid August gain, but ending the month with mild weakness. Monday’s decline reflected geopolitical tension (US-Iran strikes and oil rebound) plus elevated September rate-hike odds following Fed Chair Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks (TipRanks, Barron’s 31 Aug). Regime remains constructive longer-term but data- and event-sensitive near-term, with tech/AI leadership still dominant yet vulnerable to yields and energy prices.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to the $766.21 Monday close. Recent daily ranges and ATR of ~$5-6 support a typical 1-day swing of roughly ±0.8-1%. Lower bound near $759.50 allows for extension of the Monday low plus potential data-driven downside; upper bound near $773 covers a rebound toward the 20-day area and prior-session highs. Range is modestly wider on the downside given the geopolitical and rate backdrop.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: Tuesday 1 Sep features JOLTS job openings (July data, 10:00 AM ET) and ISM Manufacturing PMI (August, 10:00 AM ET) per FedRateCalc, BLS schedule and Finance Calendar. These labor and activity reports will be the primary near-term drivers ahead of Friday’s payrolls; no other major equity-specific catalysts are scheduled for the 1-day window.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: Stronger-than-expected ISM or JOLTS data combined with a risk-on open could push SPY above $773 and invalidate the neutral stance; weaker data or further oil/geopolitical escalation could drive a break below $759.50. Sustained trade outside the stated range on volume would overturn the forecast.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Single-day index forecasts remain noise-dominated even with scheduled data; live quotes confirm the Monday close but the dual 10 AM releases introduce binary risk, while residual geopolitical and rate-hike uncertainty keep directional conviction moderate rather than high.
DeepSeek
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) What I found, and where: Current price sourced from Stats Edge Evening Note as of September 1, 2026 close: $767.05, down -0.30% from the prior session, with volume of 38.5M matching the 20-day average of 38.7M. Multiple sources on August 31, 2026 quoted SPY in the $764.83-$769.35 range: Futunn showed $765.54 during trading; GuruFocus articles cited $764.83, $766.12, $767.05, and $769.35. The 52-week range stands at $630.35 to $777.88, with the ETF currently trading approximately 1% off its all-time high. Average true range (14 days) is $5.04.
(2) Current market regime as I read it: The market is digesting hawkish signals from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh following his Jackson Hole speech on August 28, where he opened the door to potential rate hikes. The CME FedWatch tool shows the probability of a 25-basis-point September rate hike has surged to 63.9%, up from 41.4% the prior week. President Trump acknowledged these signals on August 31, stating Warsh 'will do what he has to do'. Meanwhile, Citadel Securities reports retail dip-buying is at its weakest monthly pace since 2019, with net buying on down days running at about half the historical average. The S&P 500 has been range-bound for months, with a brief breakout to all-time highs in early August that failed to sustain follow-through. Rising 10-year Treasury yields at 4.67% are pressuring equities.
(3) Price range justification: Upper bound $780.00 - this sits just above the 52-week high of $777.88 and represents a ~1.7% move from current levels, consistent with the 14-day ATR of $5.04 scaled for a one-day forecast. A break above $777.88 would signal a retest of all-time highs and potentially reignite breakout momentum. The DeMark pivot high for August 31 was set at $772.32, providing an intermediate resistance level. Lower bound $755.00 - this is ~1.6% below current and sits below the key $760 support level identified by technicians, where the August breakout is expected to be tested; a break below $760 could expose the 50-day moving average near $754. The range is asymmetric: more room above ($12.95) than below ($12.05), reflecting the lack of strong directional conviction but acknowledging the modest bearish tilt given the hawkish Fed repricing.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: Tuesday, September 1 features a packed economic calendar: the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index at 10:00 AM ET, July Construction Spending, and July JOLTS job openings. Eurozone CPI data is also due. Fed Governor Barr is scheduled to speak at 21:05 GMT. The ISM Manufacturing data is particularly consequential: a strong reading could reinforce rate-hike fears, while a weak print might ease those concerns. Additionally, the massive $9.6 trillion September options expiration looms, with $6.2 trillion tied to quarterly expiration alone, which could alter dealer hedging dynamics and increase volatility.
(5) Strongest counter-argument and what would invalidate: The strongest counter-argument is the 'Turnaround Tuesday' calendar effect noted by traders - the index often snaps back after early-week weakness. If dip-buyers return despite the slowdown noted by Citadel, or if the ISM Manufacturing data comes in weak enough to suggest the Fed won't need to hike, SPY could reclaim $770 and challenge $772.32. My mild bearish 1-day view would be invalidated if SPY closes above $772.32 (the DeMark pivot high), which would signal renewed buying momentum. Conversely, if the ISM data surprises to the upside, reinforcing rate-hike expectations, the downside toward $760 or lower could accelerate.
(6) Why confidence is 48%: This is a low-confidence forecast in a market that has been range-bound for months with no clear directional catalyst. The hawkish Fed repricing provides a modest bearish tilt, but the 'Turnaround Tuesday' effect and the possibility of a weak ISM print that relieves rate concerns create meaningful upside risk. The 1-day window means noise dominates, and with the 14-day ATR of $5.04, a ~$12 range is appropriate but not highly predictive. 48% reflects the genuine balance of forces: slightly more weight to the bearish case given valuation premiums (~13-14% above GF Value) and rising rate expectations, but insufficient conviction to call it BEARISH.
Claude — Opus
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) What I found, and where: The window opens 2026-09-01 02:27 UTC - 10:27 PM ET Monday - so Monday's regular session is complete and only overnight futures trade between my data and the window start. StockAnalysis.com quotes SPY at $767.05 as of Aug 31, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT, down $2.30 (-0.30%) from Friday's $769.35, on 38.8M shares, with a day range of $764.72-$768.00 and a 52-week range of $629.28-$779.37; the 8:00 PM EDT after-hours print was $767.51 (+0.06%). Note the shape of that bar: the high of $768.00 sits below Friday's close, so SPY gapped down on the Iran news and never traded green, yet finished within $0.95 of its session high in a range of only $3.28 (0.43%). On the index side, The Motley Fool's Aug 31 wrap has the S&P 500 at 7,686.14 (-0.33%), Dow 53,186 (-0.70%) and Nasdaq 26,371 (-0.12%), with the 10-year Treasury at 4.76% (+4bp); Trading Economics puts the S&P at 7,690.55 for the same -0.33% and adds that August finished with the S&P +2.6% and the Nasdaq 100 +4.2%. Oil reporting conflicts and I will flag it rather than paper over it: Investing.com (Aug 31, 03:58 ET) has Brent +4.74% at $90.31 and WTI +2.25% at $85.23, Trading Economics has WTI at $85.41 (+2.41%) for Aug 31, while the Motley Fool wrap says WTI climbed above $90 - I read the $90 handle as Brent, with WTI in the mid-$85s. The decisive macro number is rates: Investing.com reports September rate-*hike* odds for the Sept 16 FOMC jumping from roughly 35% to about 60% after Warsh's Jackson Hole remarks, and Yahoo Finance puts the same move at 40% to 62%. Tuesday's calendar, per Investing.com, brings S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (consensus 53.2, prior 53.2), ISM Manufacturing PMI (consensus 55.2, prior 55.6), JOLTS job openings (consensus 7.330M, prior 7.359M), construction spending and Fed Vice Chair remarks. I am declaring this live with one caveat stated plainly: my newest print is the 8:00 PM EDT after-hours quote, about two and a half hours before the baseline, with no SPY trading in between.
(2) Market regime: The driver has changed identity over four sessions. Through August this was an AI-led melt-up; it is now a market repricing a Federal Reserve that may raise rates, with oil supplying the inflation impulse that makes the hike credible. Warsh's Jackson Hole framing - inflation "running too hot," per Yahoo Finance - moved hike odds by more than twenty points in two sessions, and the curve confirmed it with the 10-year at 4.76%. Layered on top is a Gulf conflict that is structural rather than novel: the Hormuz crisis has run since early 2026 with a US naval blockade in place, and Sunday's strike on Iranian launchers at Larak Island was, per The National, the first US strike in a month. That distinction matters for how I read Monday. A kinetic escalation astride the world's most important oil chokepoint, with Brent through $90, produced a 0.33% index decline and a 0.43% intraday range - this market's headline sensitivity to Iran is largely spent, because it has been living with the crisis for eight months. What it is not desensitised to is the Fed. Monday's internals show it: the Dow fell 0.70% against the Nasdaq's 0.12%, and Trading Economics notes Alphabet -2.26%, Microsoft -1.20% and Amazon -2.50% while Nvidia rose 1.49% on a $3.5B MediaTek stake, with energy and consumer defensives the only sectors bid. That is a market rotating on rates and oil, not fleeing risk. The most important tell is that Monday closed near its high after gapping down - absorption, which is a genuine change of character from Friday's close-at-the-low.
(3) Price range: Anchored to $767.05. Monday's realised range was unusually tight at 0.43%, but Tuesday carries scheduled data that Monday did not, so I am sizing off a roughly 1.0% daily sigma - consistent with a VIX in the mid-to-high teens after two down sessions and a geopolitical escalation, up from the 14.45 Schwab reported pre-Warsh on Friday. The band is $757.00 to $773.50, or -1.31% down and +0.84% up, with deliberate room below. The upper bound sits above Monday's high of $768.00 and above Friday's close of $769.35, both of which are now overhead references the market has failed to reclaim, and stops short of Friday's $775.30 high. The lower bound is roughly 1.3 sigma down; Monday's low of $764.72 is the first reference beneath the anchor and is less than 0.3% away, offering almost nothing as support, and below it there is no recent shelf until the mid-to-high $750s.
(4) Catalysts in the window: Tuesday Sept 1 is the first genuinely data-heavy session of the week. ISM Manufacturing at 55.2 consensus versus 55.6 prior and JOLTS at 7.330M versus 7.359M both land mid-morning, alongside S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, construction spending and Fed Vice Chair remarks (Investing.com). The asymmetry is unusual and worth naming: with hike odds at ~60%, a strong ISM is now an equity negative rather than a positive, because it validates the tightening the market is being forced to price. A soft print does the reverse. Beyond the calendar, Iran/Hormuz headlines can arrive at any hour and transmit through crude, and it is the first trading day of September - a month The Motley Fool's Aug 31 piece explicitly flags for historical underperformance, though the first session of a month also tends to attract systematic and retirement inflows that cut the other way. Friday's August payrolls report is the week's dominant event but sits outside this window.
(5) Counter-argument and invalidation: The strongest case against the bearish tilt is Monday's tape itself. Handed a US military strike near Hormuz, Brent above $90, a 20-point jump in hike odds and rising yields, the index lost a third of a percent, traded a 0.43% range, and closed near its high with after-hours slightly positive. That is not a market breaking; it is one absorbing. SPY sits only 1.6% below its 52-week high, August closed +2.6%, and the AI complex found an independent bid Monday via Nvidia. If ISM comes in below 55.2 and JOLTS softens, the hike narrative loosens immediately and the mechanical response is higher equities - which is why I have kept the short horizons at NEUTRAL rather than manufacturing a direction into a two-sided print. My call is invalidated by SPY reclaiming and holding above $769.35, which would mark the Warsh repricing as absorbed within two sessions, and more decisively by a move back through $775. It is also invalidated by any Gulf de-escalation that takes Brent back below $85, since the oil-to-inflation-to-hike chain is the spine of my reasoning. Conversely, a break of $764.72 on expanding volume would say the absorption failed.
(6) Confidence: 47%. Lower than the 52% I would have assigned on Sunday night, and lower deliberately, because the setup has become more balanced rather than less. The directional case rests on things that are real but slow - hike odds at ~60% and still climbing, Brent through $90, the 10-year at 4.76%, September seasonality, and two consecutive down closes with no bounce attempt. Against that sit a resilient close, a market demonstrably desensitised to Hormuz headlines, start-of-month flows, and a data slate whose outcome I cannot forecast and which could resolve the day in either direction within minutes of 10am. Single-session index direction is dominated by flow I cannot observe even without an ISM print in the middle of it. I have set 1h and 4h to NEUTRAL because at 10:27 PM ET with futures roughly flat I have no honest edge on the overnight, and reserved the tilt for the daily and longer horizons where the rate repricing actually operates. My confidence in the range holding is considerably higher than in the direction - a band of roughly -1.3% to +0.8% should contain the session unless ISM surprises hard or the Gulf escalates inside the window.
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