This is ForecastNest’s 1 day forecast for SOXL, created 2026-09-01 02:32 UTC. The window closed 2026-09-01 20:00 UTC, when SOXL closed at $105.78, down 6.3% from $112.85 when the forecast was made. It traded between $102.32 and $108.64 along the way (-9.3% to -3.7%).
Prediction window: Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.
Prediction time: 2026-09-01 02:32 UTC (8/31/2026, 10:32:42 PM EDT).
Valid until: 2026-09-01 20:00 UTC (9/1/2026, 4:00:00 PM EDT). Target session: 2026-09-01 (New York); Session close. Lead time to expiry: 17.45 elapsed hours. Timing: Overnight. Based on stored prediction time, not verified model execution time.
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5 of the 5 models called a direction, and 3 of those calls were right. Each model is also asked to find the price it was forecasting from when it answers, shown as the dashed line inside its box in the picture below. All models except DeepSeek found it accurately.
Below are the details.
| Model | Range | Move | Confidence | Price it found | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ChatGPT — GPT-5 | $106.00–$119.00 | -6.0% to +5.5% | 66% | $112.80 | 80.7 | right |
| Gemini — Pro | $108.00–$117.00 | -4.2% to +3.7% | 65% | $112.79 | 77.9 | right |
| Grok | $100.00–$124.00 | -10.6% to +10.9% | 36% | $111.82 | 30.1 | wrong |
| DeepSeek | $100.00–$128.00 | -12.8% to +11.6% | 42% | $114.72 | 47.4 | wrong |
| Claude — Opus | $104.00–$121.00 | -7.8% to +7.3% | 45% | $112.79 | 78.8 | right |
How these models have done on SOXL over 1 day
This forecast is settled and is included in the statistics below. The remaining records are forecasts created before 2026-09-01 02:32 UTC. Only settled directional calls count toward accuracy.
| Model | Asked | Still open | No call | Called up | Called down | Right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ChatGPT — GPT-5 | 2 | — | 0 | — | 2 · 1 right | 50% (1/2) |
| Gemini — Pro | 2 | — | 0 | — | 2 · 1 right | 50% (1/2) |
| Grok | 2 | — | 0 | 2 · 1 right | — | 50% (1/2) |
| DeepSeek | 2 | — | 0 | 1 · 1 right | 1 · 0 right | 50% (1/2) |
| Claude — Opus | 2 | — | 0 | — | 2 · 1 right | 50% (1/2) |
Every published SOXL forecast these models made over 1 day before this question was asked, on 2026-09-01 02:32 UTC, plus this settled forecast. Forecasts created after this question are excluded. Results reflect the settlements available when this article is generated. A day-ahead call and a week-ahead one are counted separately — they are different questions. Only settled forecasts are graded, so open + no call + up + down adds up to asked. “No call” is a range too centred on the price to be pointing anywhere. Accuracy counts only forecasts that have settled, and the count behind it is shown beside it — a single right call is not a 100% record.
What each model said
ChatGPT — GPT-5
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) Market regime: At 22:31 UTC on August 31, a live SOXL-linked market quote was $112.80, up 0.56% over 24 hours. The regular August 31 SOXL session closed at $112.85 after trading from $110.34 to $114.99, up 1.36%, following the severe 9.52% decline on August 28. The live quote is therefore very close to the latest official ETF close. ([HyperAcademy][1])
(2) Technical synthesis: The short-term structure is attempting a rebound after the August 17-28 collapse from $151.53 to $111.34. August 31 produced a positive session and held above the August 28 low of $110.21, suggesting selling pressure temporarily stabilized. However, SOXL remains well below the $120-$125 region that contained several recent rebounds, so the recovery is not yet a confirmed trend reversal. ([ChartExchange][2])
(3) Price range: I estimate a one-day range of $106.00-$119.00 around $112.80. The lower boundary allows for a retest of the $106-$110 support area seen during the recent selloff, while the upper boundary allows a continuation of the August 31 rebound toward the $119-$120 area. SOXL's recent daily ranges have frequently exceeded 5%, making a relatively wide one-day envelope appropriate for this 3x leveraged ETF. ([ChartExchange][2])
(4) Catalysts: The main near-term semiconductor catalyst is Broadcom's earnings report, scheduled for after Wednesday's close, while Friday's U.S. employment report is the major macro catalyst for the week. Reuters notes that markets are already focused on Broadcom results and the August jobs report after Nvidia's strong recent results. For September 1 specifically, the macro backdrop is less favorable: the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield reached 4.78% and Brent crude moved above $91 amid geopolitical tensions, increasing inflation and rate concerns. ([Reuters][3])
(5) Counter-argument: The strongest counter-argument is the macro environment. Rising oil and Treasury yields can pressure high-beta semiconductor stocks, and SOXL magnifies the underlying semiconductor move threefold on a daily basis. If the semiconductor complex again loses the August 31 low of $110.34, the rebound thesis would weaken considerably; conversely, sustained movement above the August 31 high of $114.99 would strengthen evidence that the recent selloff is transitioning into a recovery. ([Reuters][4])
(6) Confidence: Confidence is 66% because the latest live quote, positive August 31 session, and defense of the August 28 low favor a modest rebound over the next day. Confidence is limited by the still-damaged short-term trend, elevated rates and oil, geopolitical uncertainty, and SOXL's unusually high volatility. The 7-day signal remains neutral because the major Broadcom and employment catalysts have not yet arrived, while the 30-day signal is mildly bullish because semiconductor demand and AI infrastructure remain supportive of the sector's broader trend. ([Reuters][3])
Gemini — Pro
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) Data sourced from Investing.com and Robinhood confirms SOXL closed at $112.79 on Monday, August 31, 2026. The 3X leveraged ETF posted a modest gain of 1.30% on the day, reaching an intraday high of $115.05 on lighter volume of approximately 15 million shares.
(2) The current market regime for semiconductors remains volatile but is attempting to stabilize after the steep late-August sell-off. Monday's muted price action and inside-day consolidation suggest that the aggressive distribution has temporarily paused, allowing the asset to build a fragile short-term base.
(3) The price range of $108.00-$117.00 accommodates the extreme intraday swings typical of a 3X leveraged product. The downside bound leaves room to test Monday's structural lows around $110-$111, while the upside target allows for a continuation of the relief bounce toward late last week's resistance zones.
(4) Inside this 24-hour window, the primary catalyst will be the first trading session of September and the accompanying macroeconomic data, specifically the ISM Manufacturing PMI. This print historically drives institutional flows and tech-sector momentum early in the month.
(5) The strongest counter-argument to a continued relief bounce is historical September seasonality combined with macro sensitivity. If Tuesday's manufacturing data prints significantly worse than expected, recession fears could immediately reignite, triggering a swift leveraged unwind that slices through Monday's support.
(6) My confidence is 65%. While the near-term technical picture points to a mild stabilization, the compounding mechanics of SOXL and the scheduled macroeconomic data on the first trading day of a volatile month make the session highly susceptible to erratic, whiplash price action.
Grok
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Monday 31 Aug 2026 close was $111.82 (up ~0.4% from Friday’s $111.34), day range $110.33-$115.05, volume ~23M, per FT.com historical quotes, StockScan, MarketWatch intraday and Robinhood snapshots dated 31 Aug. Prior closes: 28 Aug $111.34 (down 9.5%), 27 Aug $123.05. 52-week range $23.80-$302.00. Recent daily ranges frequently $5-15+ given 3x leverage.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: Extreme-volatility 3x leveraged semiconductor ETF. Monday’s modest rebound followed Friday’s sharp drop amid sector pressure from higher rate-hike odds after Fed Chair Warsh’s comments and geopolitical oil spikes (US-Iran tensions). Broader chip complex remains sensitive to yields, energy prices and AI demand narratives; high beta and daily reset amplify moves in either direction.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to the $111.82 Monday close. Leveraged structure and recent true ranges of $5-11+ imply potential 1-day swings of 8-12% or more. Lower bound near $100 allows for extension of recent lows plus gap risk; upper bound near $124 covers a rebound toward the prior-week levels around $120-$123. Range is wider to the downside reflecting residual momentum and event risk.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: Tuesday 1 Sep includes JOLTS job openings and ISM Manufacturing PMI (both ~10:00 AM ET). These data points can drive broader equity and growth/tech sentiment; no semiconductor-specific earnings or filings are scheduled for the 1-day window.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: Stronger-than-expected economic data or a risk-on tech rebound could push SOXL above $124 and invalidate neutrality; weaker data, higher yields or further geopolitical pressure could drive a break below $100. Sustained trade outside the stated range on elevated volume would overturn the forecast.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: 3x leveraged ETFs produce large path-dependent noise on single-day horizons; live Monday close is confirmed but dual morning data releases plus residual rate/geopolitical uncertainty keep directional conviction low.
DeepSeek
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) What I found, and where: Current price sourced from WSJ as of July 31, 2026 closing at $114.72, with an after-hours quote of $112.6587. StockAnalysis.com shows an Aug 28 close of $111.34, down -9.52%. ChartExchange quotes $116.38 as of Aug 25. Multiple sources converge on a $111-$117 range. The 52-week range stands at $22.95-$302.00, with the all-time high of $302 reached on June 22, 2026. Year-to-date return is +148.6%, but the 3-month return is -50.0%.
(2) Current market regime as I read it: SOXL is in a severe downtrend from its June 22 peak of $302, having collapsed approximately 62% while the underlying SOXX lost only about 25%. The ETF is exhibiting volatility decay - the structural erosion where daily rebalancing compounds losses more aggressively than gains in choppy markets. Daily technicals show a Strong Sell signal, with RSI at 40.9 and StochRSI deeply oversold at 14.5. Despite the collapse, SOXL has attracted nearly $70 billion in net inflows during July and August, with Korean retail investors holding approximately 30.8% of total shares. The macro backdrop is hostile: Fed funds futures price a 60% chance of a September rate hike, up from 35% before Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole speech.
(3) Price range justification: Upper bound $128.00 - this sits above the 1-day range high of $126.79 observed on Aug 21 and represents a ~11.6% move from current levels, consistent with the ETF's extreme daily volatility. A break above $128 would signal a potential short-term relief rally. Lower bound $100.00 - a psychological level representing another ~12.8% decline from current prices. This aligns with the $105.09 forecast for September 2026 from TradersUnion and the $106.00 day low observed on Aug 24. The range is asymmetric: more room above ($13.28) than below ($14.72), reflecting the mild bearish 1-day view given the persistent downtrend and macro headwinds.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: Tuesday September 1 features the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index at 10:00 AM ET, along with July JOLTS job openings. Eurozone CPI data is also due. Fed Governor Barr is scheduled to speak【previous analysis】. For semiconductors specifically, Nvidia earnings are anticipated in the coming weeks (date not confirmed), and Broadcom earnings are due this week. The massive $9.6 trillion September options expiration looms, which could alter dealer hedging dynamics and increase volatility【previous analysis】.
(5) Strongest counter-argument and what would invalidate: The strongest counter-argument is the massive dip-buying from Korean retail investors, who purchased $891 million of SOXL in the week of Aug 18-24 alone. This persistent buying pressure could create a floor and trigger a short-squeeze rally if the semiconductor sector shows any sign of stabilization. My bearish 1-day view would be invalidated if SOXL closes above $121.20 (the Aug 28 high), which would signal renewed buying momentum and a potential trend reversal. Conversely, if it breaks below the Aug 28 low of $110.21, the downside toward $100 or lower could accelerate.
(6) Why confidence is 42%: This is an extremely volatile 3x leveraged ETF with a 1-day forecast that is highly sensitive to intraday semiconductor sector moves, macro headlines, and retail flow. The conflicting signals - massive inflows versus steep downtrend, oversold RSI versus Strong Sell technicals, pre-market strength versus macro headwinds - create a genuinely balanced balance of outcomes scenario. The 42% confidence reflects low conviction that the bearish call will materialize, acknowledging that in a single day with no major catalyst, the ETF could easily swing either way by 10-15% due to its leverage structure and the ongoing battle between dip-buyers and institutional sellers.
Claude — Opus
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) What I found, and where: The window opens 2026-09-01 02:32 UTC - 10:32 PM ET Monday - so Monday's session is complete and only futures trade between my data and the baseline. StockAnalysis.com quotes SOXL at $112.79 as of Aug 31, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT, up $1.45 (+1.30%) from Friday's $111.34, on 34.0M shares, with a day range of $110.33-$115.05, a 52-week range of $23.80-$302.00, and $18.96B in assets; the 6:14 PM EDT after-hours print was $112.81, effectively unchanged. The underlying agrees: Barchart shows the PHLX Semiconductor Index at 11,535.05, +0.57% from Friday's 11,469.66 close, with SOX now +0.98% on the week, +1.98% on the month, -10.09% over three months and +62.85% year-to-date against a 52-week high of 14,655.11. The sector news is real, not atmospheric: SiliconANGLE reports Aug 31 that Nvidia invested $3.5B in MediaTek convertible bonds to extend NVLink Fusion across MediaTek's custom accelerator, RTX/DGX Spark and automotive lines - following a $2B stake in Marvell - and NVDA closed the day at $220.78, up 1.48%, on 124.7M shares (StockAnalysis.com), fading slightly to $220.27 after hours. On the macro side, The Motley Fool's Aug 31 wrap has the S&P 500 at 7,686.14 (-0.33%), Dow 53,186 (-0.70%), Nasdaq 26,371 (-0.12%) and the 10-year at 4.76%; Investing.com puts Brent at $90.31 (+4.74%) and WTI near $85.2 after the US strike on Iranian launchers at Larak Island, and reports September rate-*hike* odds for the Sept 16 FOMC jumping from roughly 35% to about 60%, with Yahoo Finance framing the same move as 40% to 62%. Tuesday's calendar, per Investing.com: S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (consensus 53.2, prior 53.2), ISM Manufacturing (consensus 55.2, prior 55.6), JOLTS (consensus 7.330M, prior 7.359M), construction spending and Fed Vice Chair remarks. I call this live with one caveat stated plainly - my newest SOXL print is the 6:14 PM EDT after-hours quote, roughly four hours before the baseline, with no trading of the fund in between.
(2) Market regime: Two forces are now pulling this sector in opposite directions, and Monday was the first session where the bullish one won. The bearish force is macro and unchanged: a Fed the market now assigns ~60% odds of hiking on Sept 16, a 10-year at 4.76%, and Brent through $90 supplying the inflation impulse that makes the hike credible. Semis are the longest-duration equity exposure in the index and transmit that pressure at three times the beta through this product - Charles Schwab's account of June 5, 2026 shows the mechanism at full force, with the SOX down 10% in one session on rate-hike fears. The bullish force is company-specific and got louder Monday. Nvidia's Aug 26 results (revenue $96.2B, +106%; Q3 guidance $108B; fiscal 2028 growth of 70% described as supply-constrained, per Kiplinger) were followed five days later by a $3.5B strategic investment that widens the NVLink ecosystem - that is AI capex expanding, not contracting. The scoreboard for Monday is the cleanest evidence available: SOX +0.57% and NVDA +1.48% against an S&P down 0.33% and a Dow down 0.70%. Semiconductors led on a down day, which is the opposite of Friday, when they lost 3.47% against a Nasdaq that fell 0.52%. But the bounce has flaws. SOXL traded as high as $115.05 and surrendered roughly two-thirds of that gain by the close, and it did so on 34.0M shares against Friday's 61.0M - a lighter-volume recovery into a heavier-volume decline is the textbook signature of a bounce that has not yet proved itself. It did, however, hold: Monday's $110.33 low sat within a dime of Friday's $110.21, and that shelf was defended.
(3) Price range: Anchored to $112.79, and placed close to symmetrically on purpose rather than by default - I am declaring no directional view for the session, so the band reflects that. SOX one-day volatility in this regime runs roughly 2.0-2.3%, which triples to about a 6.5% daily sigma on SOXL; Monday's realised range was 4.19% of the close and Friday's was near 10%, bracketing that estimate. The band is $104.00 to $121.00, or -7.8% down and +7.3% up. The small residual downward tilt is not a directional call on semiconductors - it reflects the structural drag specific to this instrument, since a daily-reset 3x product carries negative expected drift in a high-realised-volatility tape even when the index goes nowhere. That drag is visible in the numbers already cited: SOX sits 21.3% below its 52-week high while SOXL at $112.79 is roughly 63% below its own $302.00 high. The upper bound sits just under Friday's $121.20 high, which is now overhead supply and well above Monday's $115.05 rejection; the lower bound sits meaningfully below the twin lows at $110.21 and $110.33, which are the only defended shelf on the recent chart.
(4) Catalysts in the window: Tuesday Sept 1 is the first data-heavy session of the week. ISM Manufacturing at 55.2 consensus versus 55.6 prior, JOLTS at 7.330M versus 7.359M, S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, construction spending and Fed Vice Chair remarks all land mid-morning. The asymmetry is worth naming because it is unusual: with hike odds near 60%, a strong ISM is now a negative for high-multiple semiconductors, because it validates the tightening being priced, while a soft print loosens the hike narrative and mechanically helps the longest-duration part of the market. That cuts both ways with roughly equal force, which is much of why I am abstaining on the day. Beyond the calendar, Iran/Hormuz headlines can arrive at any hour and reach semis twice over - through risk appetite and through crude feeding the inflation story. Broadcom reports later this week (FX.co), and as a top SOX constituent its guidance has repeatedly moved the whole index, but that sits outside this window.
(5) Counter-argument and invalidation: Because I am NEUTRAL on the day, the counter-arguments run in both directions and I will state each. Against a bullish read: the bounce faded from $115.05 into a $112.79 close on 44% less volume than Friday's selloff, the rate-hike repricing that caused Friday's 3.47% index drop is still intensifying rather than easing, oil is higher not lower, and September is historically the weakest month - flagged by The Motley Fool's Aug 31 wrap. Against a bearish read: semis materially outperformed on a down tape, the $110.21/$110.33 shelf was tested and held, Nvidia is deploying billions to widen its ecosystem, and SOX remains +62.85% year-to-date with a fundamental demand story that Nvidia's guidance says is supply-constrained rather than demand-constrained. What would resolve it: a reclaim of Monday's $115.05 high, and beyond it Friday's $121.20, would confirm the bounce and make my 7-day bearish tilt wrong; a break of the $110.21/$110.33 shelf on volume above Monday's 34M would say the Friday distribution is still running and would have justified a bearish daily call I chose not to make. Either outcome invalidates a NEUTRAL stance in the honest sense - it means the evidence was there and I did not weigh it correctly.
(6) Confidence: 45%. I have set the 1-hour, 4-hour and daily signals to NEUTRAL because the evidence genuinely conflicts and I would rather abstain than manufacture a direction. The two most recent and most direct pieces of information about this sector - Monday's relative outperformance and the MediaTek investment - point up; the macro backdrop of a probable rate hike, a 4.76% 10-year and Brent above $90 points down; and Tuesday's decisive input is an ISM print whose outcome I cannot forecast and whose sign flips the equity response. On a 3x instrument, where every unit of noise is tripled alongside every unit of signal, a coin-flip read should be reported as one. The MILD BEARISH calls at 7 and 30 days rest on different, slower-moving ground: the run-in to a live Sept 16 hike decision, September seasonality, Broadcom's guidance risk to a heavily weighted constituent, and the volatility drag structural to a daily-reset leveraged product in a tape that has produced both -10% and +8% index sessions this year. My confidence in the range is higher than in any of the signals - a band of roughly ±7.5% should contain a normal session, though it would not contain another June 5.
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