This is ForecastNest’s 7 days forecast for SPY, created 2026-08-25 14:27 UTC. The window closed 2026-09-01 14:27 UTC, when SPY closed at $763.76, down 0.1% from $764.70 when the forecast was made. It traded between $761.17 and $775.30 along the way (-0.5% to +1.4%).
Prediction window: Existing Mode 1 horizon rules apply; the stored expiry is authoritative.
Prediction time: 2026-08-25 14:27 UTC (8/25/2026, 10:27:02 AM EDT).
Valid until: 2026-09-01 14:27 UTC (9/1/2026, 10:27:02 AM EDT). Target session: 2026-09-01 (New York); During session. Lead time to expiry: 168 elapsed hours. Timing: Regular session. Based on stored prediction time, not verified model execution time.
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2 of the 4 models called a direction, and 2 of those calls were right.
Below are the details.
| Model | Range | Move | Confidence | Price it found | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ChatGPT — GPT-5 | $744.00–$782.00 | -2.7% to +2.3% | 64% | — | 81.1 | right |
| DeepSeek | $745.00–$775.00 | -2.6% to +1.3% | 52% | — | 81.4 | right |
| Gemini — Pro | $748.00–$780.00 | -2.2% to +2.0% | 55% | — | 53.0 | no call |
| Grok | $748.00–$782.00 | -2.2% to +2.3% | 30% | — | 51.8 | no call |
How these models have done on SPY over 7 days
This forecast is settled and is included in the statistics below. The remaining records are forecasts created before 2026-08-25 14:27 UTC. Only settled directional calls count toward accuracy.
| Model | Asked | Still open | No call | Called up | Called down | Right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ChatGPT — GPT-5 | 1 | — | 0 | — | 1 · 1 right | 100% (1/1) |
| DeepSeek | 1 | — | 0 | — | 1 · 1 right | 100% (1/1) |
| Gemini — Pro | 1 | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Grok | 1 | — | 1 | — | — | — |
Every published SPY forecast these models made over 7 days before this question was asked, on 2026-08-25 14:27 UTC, plus this settled forecast. Forecasts created after this question are excluded. Results reflect the settlements available when this article is generated. A day-ahead call and a week-ahead one are counted separately — they are different questions. Only settled forecasts are graded, so open + no call + up + down adds up to asked. “No call” is a range too centred on the price to be pointing anywhere. Accuracy counts only forecasts that have settled, and the count behind it is shown beside it — a single right call is not a 100% record.
What each model said
ChatGPT — GPT-5
Result: right
View full reasoning
I retrieved current information dated August 25, 2026, so data_access is live. The supplied $765.08 baseline is close to the latest verified regular-session price: StatMuse reports SPY closed August 24 at $763.47, after trading between $762.08 and $765.22; August 21 closed at $765.72. ([StatMuse][1]) On August 25, U.S. equity futures turned higher, with Reuters reporting a broad technology rebound, lower Treasury yields, and gains in the S&P 500 as investors positioned for Nvidia's earnings and upcoming inflation data. ([Reuters][2]) The current regime therefore looks like a bullish long-term trend undergoing a short-term consolidation/correction rather than a confirmed breakdown. The S&P 500 had just fallen 1.4% for the prior week, ending a three-week winning streak, and then declined another 0.28% on August 24, according to Advisor Perspectives and TradingView/Barchart. ([Advisor Perspectives][3]) However, the index remains up about 11.8% year-to-date, according to AP's August 24 market summary, and 21 S&P 500 constituents were making new 52-week highs on August 25, suggesting that breadth has not collapsed. ([AP News][4]) For the seven-day horizon I give the highest weight to the recent SPY price structure and the broader equity regime, while treating technology/AI leadership and rates as the major cross-market inputs. The immediate price structure shows support around $762-$764, with the August 24 low at $762.08 and the August 21 close at $765.72; the recent August 17 high of $776.78 provides a natural first upside reference, while $778-$780 represents the upper portion of the recent trading range. ([StatMuse][1]) I therefore expect a modest upward bias but not a breakout call. The forecast range of $744-$782 is intentionally asymmetric around the $765.08 baseline: the downside is wider because the market has just experienced a volatility increase and several major binary catalysts are approaching, while the upside is constrained by the recent $776-$779 resistance zone. The lower bound around $744 also corresponds approximately to the late-July/early-August consolidation area visible in the recent SPY history, rather than assuming an unrestricted crash. ([StatMuse][1]) The dominant catalysts inside the seven-day window are unusually important. NVIDIA is scheduled to report fiscal Q2 results on Wednesday, August 26 at 5 p.m. ET, according to NVIDIA's official newsroom; because Nvidia is a major S&P 500 constituent and an important driver of AI-related sentiment, its results and guidance could materially move SPY through the technology sector. ([NVIDIA Newsroom][5]) The Bureau of Economic Analysis is also scheduled to release July Personal Income and Outlays, including the PCE inflation data, on August 26 at 8:30 a.m. EDT, together with the second estimate of Q2 GDP and corporate profits. ([Bureau of Economic Analysis][6]) Finally, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is scheduled to deliver keynote remarks at the 2026 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium on August 28, according to the Federal Reserve calendar. ([Federal Reserve][7]) These catalysts make the latter half of the forecast window substantially more volatile than the first half. The strongest counter-argument is that the market's recent weakness reflects a deeper valuation/rates correction rather than a temporary pause. Reuters notes that rising bond-market volatility and elevated yields have been pressuring equities, while the Nvidia result and Jackson Hole event are explicitly viewed as tests of the assumptions supporting the equity rally. ([Reuters][8]) A hotter-than-expected PCE reading, a hawkish Warsh message, or disappointing Nvidia guidance could push SPY decisively below $762 and make the $744-$750 region more likely. Conversely, a strong Nvidia report combined with benign inflation and lower yields would invalidate the cautious range and make a move toward or above $780 more probable. Confidence is 64% because the underlying trend and current breadth remain constructive, and Tuesday's live market tone has improved, but the seven-day window contains three unusually important catalysts whose outcomes cannot be inferred reliably in advance. I therefore favor MILD BULLISH rather than BULLISH: the evidence supports continuation of the broader uptrend and a rebound from the recent consolidation, but the balance of outcomes is too event-dependent to justify high conviction.
DeepSeek
Result: right
View full reasoning
(1) What I found and where: At the 14:27 UTC baseline, SPY was trading around $765.08. The regular session closed at 763.47, down 0.29%, with the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) down 1.00%. In pre-market activity on Aug 25, SPY was up 0.5% and QQQ up 1% as chip stocks recovered. Technical data as of the Aug 25 close shows SPY at 763.47, exactly at the 20-day EMA (763.55), with the 50-day EMA at 752.26 below and the 200-day EMA at 707.99 further down; RSI(14) at 40.5, and volume only 70% of the 20-day average. Key resistance is 767.81; a break and hold above that level would signal a short-term reversal. Support is in the 756-760 range. A dark pool print at 763.96 established a firm ceiling, making 764 the critical pivot for the week. (2) Current market regime: The S&P 500 is in a consolidation/confirmation phase following a pullback; the broader market has not yet confirmed a bottom. SPY is range-bound between 762 and 771.58, having reclaimed the 765.71 pivot. The higher-timeframe conviction is improving but still constructive rather than a breakout. Defensive sectors (Consumer Staples) led at +1.70% while Tech lagged at -1.78%, indicating a defensive rotation as markets await Nvidia earnings. The put/call ratio on SPY is 1.28 (537万 puts vs 420万 calls), showing index-level hedging. (3) Price range justification: The range $745-$775 is measured from the $765.08 baseline and is moderately asymmetric to the downside, reflecting the near-term bearish technical pressure and elevated uncertainty. The lower bound of $745 is ~2.6% below baseline and aligns with the 50-day EMA at $752.26 plus room for a deeper pullback if support at 756-760 fails. The upper bound of $775 is ~1.3% above baseline and sits just above the 771.58 range ceiling and the 773.82 shelf. This range captures the expected 7-day volatility: SPY's 30-day ATM implied volatility is around 12.6%, implying a 1-week expected move of roughly ±2.5-3%, or ~$19-23. The range of $30 (3.9%) is realistic given the consolidation regime and upcoming catalysts. (4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: Key events in the next 7 days include: (a) Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium (Aug 27-29)-Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's remarks will be closely watched for signals on rate policy; markets are pricing a 35% chance of a September rate hike; (b) PCE inflation data (before Wednesday open)-the Fed's preferred inflation gauge; (c) Nvidia earnings (Aug 27)-a major catalyst for tech and the broader market, given Nvidia's weight in the S&P 500 and its role as a bellwether for AI spending; (d) Consumer confidence and new-home sales data due later today. (5) Strongest counter-argument and invalidation: The strongest counter is that the market may rally if Jackson Hole signals a dovish pivot or if Nvidia delivers a strong beat and upbeat guidance. Fundstrat's Tom Lee has called for the S&P 500 to reach 8,000 by end of August, driven by strong earnings and AI investment. If SPY breaks and holds above 767.81 or clears the 771.58 range ceiling, the bullish case would gain traction and the call would be invalidated. Conversely, if SPY breaks below 756 support, the downside could accelerate toward 745 or lower. (6) Confidence attribution: Confidence is 52%-low but not extremely low-because the 7-day window contains multiple high-impact catalysts (Jackson Hole, PCE, Nvidia) whose outcomes are binary and unpredictable. The technical setup is neutral to mildly bearish: SPY is range-bound, RSI is subdued but not oversold, volume is light, and defensive positioning suggests caution. However, the bullish catalysts (potential Fed dovishness, Nvidia beat) could quickly reverse the bearish tone. The conflicting signals-bullish pre-market futures vs bearish close, improving higher-timeframe conviction vs stretched hourly-keep conviction low. I weight the near-term technical pressure and hedging activity more heavily than the speculative upside catalysts, but the uncertainty around the key events keeps confidence just above 50%.
Gemini — Pro
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) What I found and where: According to live market data retrieved from Fidelity (MT Newswires) and Investing.com for August 25, 2026, SPY is trading relatively flat near the $765-$766 level. A critical catalyst was identified via Pluang and Wall Street Horizon: Nvidia (NVDA) is scheduled to report fiscal Q2 2026 earnings on August 26 after market close, with towering revenue expectations of $92.2 billion. (2) Market regime: The current regime is a tense, choppy consolidation. The broader market is in a 'wait-and-see' mode, with mega-cap tech completely dictating directional momentum while bond yields exhibit occasional spikes on inflation fears. (3) Price range justification: Measuring from the $765.08 baseline, a 7-day range of $748.00 to $780.00 accounts for roughly ±2% of volatility. The upper bound tests the recent 52-week high of $779.37, which is achievable on a blowout NVDA report, while the $748 downside leaves room for a broad market pullback if tech falters. (4) Scheduled catalysts: The single largest catalyst within this window is Nvidia's earnings on August 26. Secondary macro data includes August consumer confidence, new-home sales, and typical end-of-month PCE inflation data. (5) Counter-argument: The strongest risk to a bullish bias is that Nvidia's forward guidance fails to exceed the astronomical expectations already priced in, triggering a 'sell the news' event that violently drags down the S&P 500's heavy tech weighting. Furthermore, if upcoming inflation data surprises to the upside, a spike in bond yields could compound the selloff. (6) Confidence is 55% because a 7-day forecast during this specific week relies almost entirely on the binary outcome of a single mega-cap tech earnings report, which carries extreme variance.
Grok
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) Retrieved quotes from TradeSmith, Investing.com, MarketWatch, Twelve Data, Finviz and others showing SPY closed Aug 24 at $763.47 (range 762.08-765.22), with Aug 25 session trading near $765-767 (e.g., ~$765.33-766.32 intraday/premarket indications); baseline $765.08 is consistent. Recent action: mild consolidation after peaking near $779 on Aug 13, with 30-day gain ~3%. News/catalysts from Reuters, TheStreet, Yahoo Finance, ThriveInMarkets, Morningstar/Dow Jones, Scotiabank calendar: US futures higher Tuesday on tech rebound (S&P futures +0.3-0.5%); key events this week include Consumer Confidence/New Home Sales (Tue), Core PCE/GDP/Durable Goods + Nvidia earnings (Wed), Jackson Hole Symposium with Fed Chair Warsh speech (Fri). ATR ~$6.4-6.7 (Finviz/WallStreetNumbers), 30-day historical vol ~13%. (2) Current regime is range-bound consolidation near recent highs with mild upward bias from positive futures and residual AI/earnings momentum, but elevated event risk from inflation data and Fed commentary keeps conviction limited. (3) Range measured from the $765.08 baseline and kept relatively balanced-to-slightly-upside to reflect typical weekly SPY moves (ATR-based ~1% daily swings compound to several points over 7 days) plus room for post-event volatility; lower bound near recent support zones and a 2% drawdown, upper near the prior high and modest extension. (4) Inside the 7-day window the dominant catalysts are Wednesday’s PCE print and Nvidia results plus Friday’s Jackson Hole speech; these can drive 1-2% swings either way depending on outcomes versus expectations (core PCE seen ~0.2% MoM/3.3% YoY). (5) Strongest counter-argument is a hotter-than-expected PCE or hawkish Warsh tone that pressures multiples and tech, potentially testing the lower bound; invalidation of neutral/mild bias would be a decisive break below ~$750 on volume or a clean reclaim/hold above $780. (6) Confidence is low at 30% because the 7-day path is event-driven with two-sided risk, recent price action is choppy rather than trending strongly, and data is partial (solid recent closes and calendars, current session quotes available but not exhaustive live tape).
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