This is ForecastNest’s 1 day forecast for SPY, created 2026-09-01 23:06 UTC. The window closed 2026-09-02 20:00 UTC, when SPY closed at $765.14, up 0.5% from $761.64 when the forecast was made. It traded between $761.70 and $766.42 along the way (+0.0% to +0.6%).
Prediction window: Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.
Prediction time: 2026-09-01 23:06 UTC (9/1/2026, 7:06:27 PM EDT).
Valid until: 2026-09-02 20:00 UTC (9/2/2026, 4:00:00 PM EDT). Target session: 2026-09-02 (New York); Session close. Lead time to expiry: 20.89 elapsed hours. Timing: After close. Based on stored prediction time, not verified model execution time.
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2 of the 5 models called a direction, and 0 of those calls were right. Each model is also asked to find the price it was forecasting from when it answers, shown as the dashed line inside its box in the picture below. Every model found it accurately.
Below are the details.
| Model | Range | Move | Confidence | Price it found | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ChatGPT — GPT-5 | $754.00–$768.50 | -1.0% to +0.9% | 76% | $761.78 | 55.0 | no call |
| Gemini — Pro | $754.00–$767.50 | -1.0% to +0.8% | 65% | $761.78 | 31.4 | wrong |
| Grok | $754.00–$770.00 | -1.0% to +1.1% | 42% | $761.78 | 53.4 | no call |
| DeepSeek | $750.00–$775.00 | -1.5% to +1.7% | 48% | $761.78 | 53.0 | no call |
| Claude — Opus | $749.50–$768.50 | -1.6% to +0.9% | 53% | $761.60 | 32.4 | wrong |
How these models have done on SPY over 1 day
This forecast is settled and is included in the statistics below. The remaining records are forecasts created before 2026-09-01 23:06 UTC. Only settled directional calls count toward accuracy.
| Model | Asked | Still open | No call | Called up | Called down | Right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ChatGPT — GPT-5 | 3 | — | 1 | — | 2 · 2 right | 100% (2/2) |
| DeepSeek | 3 | — | 2 | — | 1 · 1 right | 100% (1/1) |
| Claude — Opus | 3 | — | 0 | — | 3 · 2 right | 67% (2/3) |
| Gemini — Pro | 3 | — | 2 | — | 1 · 0 right | 0% (0/1) |
| Grok | 3 | — | 3 | — | — | — |
Every published SPY forecast these models made over 1 day before this question was asked, on 2026-09-01 23:06 UTC, plus this settled forecast. Forecasts created after this question are excluded. Results reflect the settlements available when this article is generated. A day-ahead call and a week-ahead one are counted separately — they are different questions. Only settled forecasts are graded, so open + no call + up + down adds up to asked. “No call” is a range too centred on the price to be pointing anywhere. Accuracy counts only forecasts that have settled, and the count behind it is shown beside it — a single right call is not a 100% record.
What each model said
ChatGPT — GPT-5
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) Market regime: SPY closed September 1 at $761.90, down 0.67%, after a session that reached $764.67 and fell as low as $760.87. The latest after-hours data available shows roughly $761.78, making $761.78 the best current reference for the requested 23:06 UTC timestamp. ChartExchange records the September 1 close at $761.90 and after-hours trading near $761.85. ([ChartExchange][1])
(2) Technical synthesis: Short-term momentum has deteriorated materially. SPY has now moved from the August 13 record-area high of $779.37 to roughly $762, and September 1 produced another lower close while the Nasdaq fell about 1.0%. The ETF remains above its 50-day average of about $754.36 and well above its 200-day average of $710.27, so the longer-term trend is still constructive, but the immediate structure favors further consolidation or downside. ([ChartExchange][2])
(3) Price range: I estimate a one-day range of $754.00-$768.50 around $761.78. The lower boundary is near the current 50-day average and allows for continuation of the recent decline; the upper boundary permits a recovery toward the $768 area without requiring a full reversal of the September weakness. Options pricing before the September 1 session implied roughly a ±$5.46 one-day move, or about $760.39-$771.32, so my range is shifted downward to reflect the subsequent deterioration in the market. ([OptionsMovement][3])
(4) Catalysts: The dominant catalyst is the renewed U.S.-Iran conflict and its effect on crude oil and Treasury yields. Reuters reported that the S&P 500 fell 0.71% on September 1 while the 10-year Treasury yield reached 4.79%; futures markets were pricing about a 66% probability of a 25-basis-point September Fed hike. U.S. job openings also came in below expectations, while investors remain focused on the upcoming employment and inflation data for clues about monetary policy. ([Reuters][4])
(5) Counter-argument: The strongest counter-argument is the still-positive longer-term trend. SPY remains about 7% above its 200-day moving average and only about 2.2% below its August record, while the index retains substantial earnings and AI-growth support. A sharp decline in oil prices or easing geopolitical tensions could therefore produce a fast rebound toward $768-$772. The bearish short-term interpretation would be weakened if SPY quickly recovers the $768-$770 area. ([ChartExchange][2])
(6) Confidence: Confidence is 76% because the one-day evidence is unusually aligned: three consecutive weaker sessions, a fresh 0.67% decline, rising oil prices, a 4.79% 10-year Treasury yield, and increasing expectations of a September rate hike all pressure equity valuations. Confidence is not higher because SPY remains above its 50- and 200-day averages and geopolitical headlines can reverse rapidly. The 7-day signal is bearish because the macro pressure is likely to remain relevant through the employment-data window, while the 30-day signal is neutral because the longer-term technical trend remains positive but the policy and inflation backdrop has become materially less favorable. ([Reuters][4])
Gemini — Pro
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) Data sourced from Google Finance and Investing.com confirms SPY closed at $761.78 on Tuesday, September 1, 2026. The ETF declined 0.69% on the session, finishing near its intraday lows amid broad market weakness.
(2) The current market regime is decidedly risk-off, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and surging energy costs. Oil crossing above $90 per barrel has reignited inflation fears, sending the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.79% and heavily pressuring long-duration equities.
(3) The price range of $754.00-$767.50 assumes heightened volatility following a key technical test. The downside bound allows for a breakdown of the critical 758-762 support zone if selling accelerates, targeting the mid-750s structural lows. The upside target brackets Tuesday's previous close of $767.05 as immediate resistance.
(4) With the August ISM Manufacturing PMI already released on Tuesday (printing a slight miss at 54.6%), the primary scheduled catalyst inside this 24-hour window will be Wednesday's JOLTs job openings data and the market's continued reaction to the geopolitical situation in Iran.
(5) The strongest counter-argument to a bearish continuation is the technical proximity to major support. SPY is currently sitting precisely on its June breakout levels. If institutional buyers defend this zone and oil prices stabilize overnight, the ETF could execute a sharp mean-reversion bounce.
(6) My confidence is 65%. While the macroeconomic backdrop of rising yields and geopolitical stress heavily favors the downside, betting on an immediate breakdown through a major structural support level over a single session carries inherent reversal risks.
Grok
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Tuesday 1 Sep 2026 close was $761.78 (down 0.69% from Monday’s $767.05), day range $759.48-$764.67, volume ~34-36M, per CNBC, Yahoo Finance, Investing.com, GuruFocus and TipRanks quotes dated 1 Sep. After-hours held near $761.50-$761.80. Prior close 31 Aug $767.05.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: Soft session with SPY slipping lower amid residual geopolitical tension (US-Iran related oil pressure) and cautious rate expectations following recent Fed commentary. Broader indices followed a similar modest decline; no major surprise data shock but risk appetite remained restrained after the prior day’s pullback.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to the $761.78 Tuesday close. Recent daily ranges of roughly $5-8 and 14-day ATR near $6 support a 1-day window of about ±1%. Lower bound near $754 allows for extension of the day’s low plus modest gap risk; upper bound near $770 covers a rebound toward the prior close and short-term resistance. Range is modestly wider on the downside reflecting the mild downward momentum.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: No major U.S. economic releases scheduled for Wednesday 2 Sep that would typically move the broad market. Residual follow-through from Tuesday’s session and any overnight geopolitical or oil-price developments remain the primary potential drivers.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: A swift risk-on rebound or positive overnight news could push SPY above $770; further escalation in geopolitical risk or weaker global cues could drive a break below $754. Sustained trade outside the stated range would overturn the mild bearish tilt.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Live Tuesday close is confirmed and the session direction is clear, yet single-day forecasts remain noise-dominated in the absence of scheduled high-impact data; residual macro and geopolitical uncertainty keep conviction moderate.
DeepSeek
Result: no call
View full reasoning
(1) What I found, and where: Current price sourced from TradingView and GuruFocus as of September 1, 2026 close: $761.78, down -0.69% on the day, with volume of 39.58M vs 20-day average 38.7M. Intraday range was $5.19, with the session closing mid-range. The 52-week range is $630.35-$777.88, putting SPY about 1% off the all-time high. The 14-day ATR is $5.04. Earlier in the session, multiple sources quoted intraday prices around $762.75 and $761.72. All sources converge on a $761.50-$762.75 anchor.
(2) Current market regime as I read it: SPY is testing a critical support level at $760.40-$760.57 - the prior all-time high cleared at the start of August. The close at $761.78 sits right on the "breakout shelf", and the daily candle formed a doji, indicating indecision. Volume was average, and sellers failed to widen the range or expand volume - in volume-spread analysis terms, that signals an absence of supply, though not yet the presence of demand. The macro backdrop is hawkish: Fed Governor Barr stated Tuesday that if inflation doesn't moderate, the central bank "should act decisively to raise rates" in September, pushing market-implied odds of a September hike to 66% from just over 30% before Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole speech. E-mini S&P 500 futures fell -0.61% ahead of Tuesday's open. Additionally, U.S. Central Command launched military operations targeting Iran's IRGC on September 1, adding geopolitical uncertainty.
(3) Price range justification: Upper bound $775.00 - this sits below the 52-week high of $777.88 and above the $774.75 level cited by technicians as a near-term target on strength; reclaiming $766 (the 5-12 cloud) is the first requirement for upside. Lower bound $750.00 - this is ~1.5% below current levels and sits below the next technical shelf at $756.70 and $750, with $744.75 cited as a further downside zone. The range is asymmetric: more room below ($11.78) than above ($13.22), reflecting the mild bearish 1-day view given the hawkish Fed repricing, geopolitical tensions, and the fact that SPY closed the day testing a major support level without reclaiming higher ground.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: Tuesday September 1 featured a packed 10:00 AM ET data window including ISM Manufacturing, JOLTS Job Openings, Construction Spending, and the RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index. These reports arrived during the trading session and likely influenced price action. The broader week ahead includes ADP employment, ISM Services, and the critical August jobs report on Friday September 4, with Polymarket pricing a 27% chance of a negative jobs figure. These later catalysts are outside the 1-day window but may drive anticipatory positioning.
(5) Strongest counter-argument and what would invalidate: The strongest counter-argument is that Tuesday's close at $761.78 on the breakout shelf with a doji candle and average volume represents a successful retest of support - sellers lacked conviction, and a "Turnaround Tuesday" snap-back could follow Wednesday. Demand must show up on Wednesday with an up bar, wider spread than Tuesday, and closing in the upper third of the range on volume above 39.58M to confirm the bounce. My mild bearish 1-day view would be invalidated if SPY reclaims $766 (the 5-12 cloud), which would signal renewed buying momentum. Conversely, a break below Tuesday's low of $759.48 with expanding volume and a close on the lows would confirm a breakdown and accelerate downside toward $756.70 and $750.
(6) Why confidence is 48%: This is a 1-day forecast in a market that is testing a critical technical level with no clear resolution. The doji close, average volume, and absence of supply suggest indecision rather than conviction. The hawkish Fed repricing (66% September hike odds) and geopolitical risks provide a modest bearish tilt, but the support zone at $760 is strong, and dip-buyers could easily step in. The $5.04 ATR suggests a ~$5 daily range, but the leveraged nature of the 1-day window means noise dominates. 48% reflects the genuine balance: slightly more weight to the bearish case given the hawkish Fed and failure to rally off support, but insufficient conviction to call it BEARISH.
Claude — Opus
Result: wrong
View full reasoning
(1) What I found, and where - including one caveat on the price: The window opens 2026-09-01 23:06 UTC, 7:06 PM ET Tuesday, so Tuesday's session is complete. Two independent recaps give the same close: Vistap Global has the S&P 500 at 7,631.54 (-0.71%), Dow 52,767.59 (-0.79%), Nasdaq 26,099.77 (-1.03%), Russell 2000 2,918.93 (-1.27%) and VIX 16.40 (+9.93%); Alain Guillot's recap has the S&P at 7,631.47 (-0.7%) with the same Dow and Nasdaq. I must be straight about the SPY figure itself: my quote provider hit a fetch limit before I could pull a direct SPY print, so $761.60 is derived, not quoted - it is the S&P close of 7,631.5 multiplied by the SPY/SPX ratio of 0.099797 established from Monday's directly-quoted $767.05 against 7,686.14, and it cross-checks against applying -0.71% to Monday's close ($761.61). Treat it as accurate to roughly a dime, not a quoted tick. Everything else is directly sourced and dated Sept 1. Yields: the 10-year at 4.79%, its highest since January 2025, with the 30-year near 5.26% (Vistap Global, Alain Guillot). Oil: WTI closed above $90, up 5.6%, with Brent above $94 - Alain Guillot has Brent $94.65 (+4.6%) and WTI $90.22 (+5.2%) - after US strikes on Iranian targets and reports of attacks on tankers near the Strait of Hormuz, with Trump warning of a forthcoming response (Yahoo Finance's Sept 1 live blog). Data: ISM manufacturing stayed in expansion but new orders fell to 53.7 from July's 56.7 with respondents flagging higher input prices, and JOLTS job openings came in at 7.3 million, little changed, against a hiring rate that eased into what Vistap Global calls a "low-hire, low-fire" market. For reference, Yahoo's pre-open blog had S&P futures -0.57% and Nasdaq futures -1.02% with VIX at 15.79, so the session opened weak and closed weaker.
(2) Market regime: This has stopped being a one-day repricing and become a trend. Three consecutive declines - Friday -0.23%, Monday -0.30%, Tuesday -0.71% - each larger than the last, with volatility finally expanding: VIX has travelled from 14.45 on Friday morning, before Warsh spoke (Schwab), to 16.40. Breadth is deteriorating in an orderly, informative way: Russell -1.27% and Nasdaq -1.03% against the S&P's -0.71% says the longest-duration and lowest-quality exposures are being sold hardest, which is exactly what a rate shock looks like from the inside. The driver stack is now three-deep and mutually reinforcing. Rates: the 10-year at a twenty-month high is the transmission channel compressing multiples. Oil: WTI is roughly 9% above Friday's $82.68 (Schwab), and the escalation has widened from strikes on launchers to reported attacks on tankers, which is a step up the ladder rather than a repeat. And the data has turned genuinely awkward - ISM new orders dropping three points while input prices rise is a stagflationary combination that undercuts the growth case without giving the Fed room to relent. That mix is why energy was the only sector bid while technology led lower. What this is not, yet, is panic. A VIX of 16.4 and a drawdown of roughly 2.3% from the 52-week high of $779.37 describe a controlled institutional repricing, not a liquidation - which cuts both ways, since there is no capitulation low to bounce from either.
(3) Price range: Anchored to $761.60. VIX at 16.40 implies a one-day standard deviation near 1.03%, about $7.85 on SPY, and realised volatility has been running at or above that for three sessions. The band is $749.50 to $768.50 - roughly -1.59% down and +0.91% up, so materially more room below, deliberately. The upper bound sits just above Monday's $768.00 high, which is the nearest overhead reference and would require a full recovery of Tuesday's loss to reach; Friday's $769.35 close and $775.30 high sit beyond it and are not realistic inside one session from here. The lower bound sits near the round $750 handle at about 1.5 standard deviations down. There is no recent shelf between here and there - Tuesday broke decisively through Monday's $764.72 low, and the chart offers nothing until the low $750s, which is precisely why the downside bound is placed wider than the upside one.
(4) Catalysts in the window: Wednesday Sept 2 brings the ADP employment report at 8:15 AM ET, durable goods orders at 8:30, and the Fed's Beige Book in the afternoon (Schwab's calendar and TheRightTrader's week-ahead). The asymmetry that governed Tuesday has now partly inverted and is worth naming carefully: after an ISM new-orders drop to 53.7 and a JOLTS print showing hiring easing, a soft ADP would start to undercut the September hike narrative rather than reinforce it, and that would be equity-supportive - so Wednesday's data is genuinely two-sided in a way Tuesday's was not. The Beige Book's inflation language matters for the same reason. Running underneath the calendar is the Gulf, where a warned-of US response to the tanker attacks could arrive at any hour and push crude further; that channel has been unambiguously negative for equities all week. Friday's August payrolls report, with unemployment consensus at 4.0% against 4.1% prior, is the week's dominant event but falls outside this window.
(5) Counter-argument and invalidation: The strongest case against the bearish tilt is that three down days with the VIX only at 16 is a shallow, orderly pullback in a market 2.3% from its high, and those tend to find a bid on the fourth day rather than accelerate. More substantively, the very data that hurt Tuesday contains the seed of the reversal: falling new orders and easing hiring are disinflationary signals, and if Wednesday's ADP is weak the market can reprice hike odds downward, which would relieve the yield pressure that is doing most of the damage. The oil shock is also, historically, the most mean-reverting of the three drivers - Hormuz headlines have spiked and faded repeatedly through 2026, and a single de-escalation report takes crude and the inflation narrative with it. My call is invalidated by SPY reclaiming and holding above $768.00, which would say three sessions of selling were absorbed in one; it is also invalidated in substance by a soft ADP that pulls the 10-year back below 4.75%, since the yield channel is the spine of my reasoning. Conversely, a break of $755 on expanding volume with the VIX through 18 would say the orderly repricing has become something faster.
(6) Confidence: 53%. Higher than the 47% I assigned twenty-four hours ago, and higher for specific reasons rather than momentum of opinion. Yesterday the picture was balanced - a shock absorbed, a firm close, two-sided data ahead. Tonight the trend is established and accelerating across three sessions, volatility is expanding rather than compressing, breadth is deteriorating in a consistent pattern, the 10-year has broken to a twenty-month high, and both live shocks - oil and rates - are still intensifying rather than resolving. That is a coherent regime rather than a collection of headlines. It is not a higher number because the drawdown remains shallow, the VIX is nowhere near stress levels, Wednesday's data could genuinely flip the rate narrative supportive, and single-session index direction is dominated by flow I cannot observe. I have kept the 1-hour signal at NEUTRAL because at 7 PM ET, with no overnight print in hand, I have no honest edge on the next hour, and reserved the tilt for the horizons where the rate and oil channels actually operate. My confidence in the range holding is higher than in the direction - a band of roughly -1.6% to +0.9% should contain the session unless the Gulf escalates inside it or ADP surprises hard.
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