Oct 14, 2026 - 5 AI models call the biggest movers in the morning session. 3 models finished positive

Asked Oct 14, 10:07 AM EDT (morning session). Perplexity, Muse Spark 1.1, Grok 4.5, GPT-6 and DeepSeek answered the same standard prompt independently. Window: from Oct 14, 10:07 AM EDT to Oct 15, 10:07 AM EDT, the same time one session later. Benchmark: SPY.

Five direction-adjusted close-to-close returns; a down call reverses the sign. The score is the mean signed return, without subtracting the benchmark. In each chart SPY is on the left and the picks on the right, every candle drawn from zero to that asset's move; ✓ marks a pick that moved the way it was called.

Model	Correct	Hit rate	Return	SPY	Directional return
Perplexity	3/5	60.00%	3.89%	-0.79%	3.89%
Muse Spark 1.1	3/5	60.00%	-1.68%	-0.79%	-1.68%
Grok 4.5	2/5	40.00%	0.67%	-0.79%	0.67%
GPT-6	4/5	80.00%	5.56%	-0.79%	5.56%
DeepSeek	2/5	40.00%	-0.98%	-0.79%	-0.98%

Perplexity

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The source session showed a narrow market with strong sector rotation into refining and energy infrastructure, while biotechnology trial disappointments, satellite-launch concerns, and a convertible-note supply event drove sharp single-stock declines. I favor continuation in the refining complex, where the catalyst is sector-fundamental, and continuation lower in the largest verified downside movers, where company-specific negative catalysts are substantive rather than purely technical.

1. PBF up — confidence 62%. PBF Energy rose 7.23% in the source session to $91.17, with refining peers VLO, DINO, CVI, and DK also advancing, indicating a sector-wide catalyst rather than an isolated move. Yahoo Finance describes renewed focus on refining-capacity tightness and U.S. support for fuel output; this is a substantive industry-supply catalyst, though the exact magnitude of its earnings impact is inference. The stock closed near its 52-week high of $89.48 according to the quoted 52-week range, so much optimism may already be priced in; however, the broad peer confirmation and strong close support continuation. Latest quote used: $91.17, Yahoo Finance regular-session close for 2026-10-14; intraday open/high/low and 20-day dollar-volume figures could not be independently verified, so those fields are null. Strongest counter-evidence is the proximity to the 52-week high and the possibility that the refining headline is sentiment-driven. Invalidation: a close back below the source-session close of $91.17 would undermine the continuation thesis.
   Return: -2.49%; alpha: -1.70%.
2. VLO up — confidence 60%. Valero Energy gained 4.69% in the source session to $456.46, ranking among the day's largest liquid gainers with a $131.427 billion market cap and roughly $3.0 billion in three-month average daily dollar volume. The catalyst—renewed attention to refining-capacity tightness and U.S. support for fuel output—is substantive for a pure-play refiner because it can support crack spreads and earnings expectations, although the precise financial effect is not disclosed. The move was smaller than PBF's, suggesting less exhaustion risk, and peer confirmation supports a sector trend. Latest quote used: $456.46, Yahoo Finance regular-session close for 2026-10-14. The 20-day dollar-volume figure was not directly available, so the reported value is price multiplied by Yahoo's three-month average share volume and should be treated as an approximation. Counter-evidence: the stock is up 168.82% over 52 weeks and near its 52-week high of $449.67, so valuation and positioning risk are elevated. Invalidation: a close below $456.46 would negate the continuation call.
   Return: -0.62%; alpha: 0.17%.
3. BNTX down — confidence 63%. BioNTech fell 7.13% in the source session to $89.01 after its BNT113 cancer trial missed the first primary endpoint of progression-free survival, according to Yahoo Finance. This is a substantive clinical catalyst: a primary-endpoint miss directly reduces the probability of near-term regulatory and commercial success for that program, rather than merely reflecting sentiment. The decline occurred on 1.909 million shares versus a 1.182 million three-month average, consistent with elevated selling pressure. I expect continuation lower because the fundamental expectation for the program has deteriorated and the market has had little time to fully reprice pipeline value. Latest quote used: $89.01, Yahoo Finance regular-session close for 2026-10-14. The 20-day dollar-volume figure was not directly available; the reported value is price multiplied by Yahoo's three-month average volume. Counter-evidence: the stock remains well above its 52-week low of $79.52, and broad pipeline value or a company response could limit further downside. Invalidation: a close back above $89.01 would challenge the continuation thesis.
   Return: -0.91%; alpha: 1.70%.
4. ASTS down — confidence 58%. AST SpaceMobile declined 8.54% in the source session to $47.06 after an analyst downgrade citing satellite-launch delays and rising competitive pressure from SpaceX, according to Yahoo Finance. The catalyst is substantive because launch timing affects the revenue ramp, while the competitive-pressure element is more interpretive. The stock fell on 21.486 million shares versus a 13.115 million three-month average, indicating strong participation in the decline, and it reached a fresh 52-week low according to a cited market report. I expect continuation lower over one session because the downgrade addresses execution risk rather than a transient sentiment shock. Latest quote used: $47.06, Yahoo Finance regular-session close for 2026-10-14. The 20-day dollar-volume figure was not directly available; the reported value is price multiplied by Yahoo's three-month average volume. Counter-evidence: the stock is deeply extended to the downside after a 45.54% 52-week decline, so a short-covering rebound is plausible; Clear Street reportedly still sees a six-month lead over SpaceX. Invalidation: a close back above $47.06 would undermine the continuation call.
   Return: -6.46%; alpha: 7.25%.
5. CIFR down — confidence 55%. Cipher Digital fell 12.77% in the source session to $11.34 after an $850 million convertible-note offering, according to a Motley Fool report cited by Yahoo Finance. This is a substantive capital-structure catalyst: new convertible supply can create dilution and hedging-related selling pressure, so it is more than a sentiment-only decline. The stock traded 115.555 million shares versus a 33.434 million three-month average, showing exceptional volume and sustained distribution. I expect continuation lower because the offering creates a tangible overhang, although the magnitude of dilution depends on terms not verified here. Latest quote used: $11.34, Yahoo Finance regular-session close for 2026-10-14. The 20-day dollar-volume figure was not directly available; the reported value is price multiplied by Yahoo's three-month average volume. Counter-evidence: the enormous volume could also mark capitulation, and Bitcoin or digital-asset strength could quickly overwhelm the offering overhang. Invalidation: a close back above $11.34 would challenge the continuation thesis.
   Return: -15.17%; alpha: 15.96%.

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Muse Spark 1.1

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Oct 13 was a flat tape with S&P 500 down 0.02% but strong dispersion. Memory chips MU and SNDK sold off on China competition fears, biotech split with BNTX down on trial failure and MRNA up on Nasdaq-100 inclusion, and AAPL edged to new 52-week high on smart home news. Near term bias is for memory washout to bounce and trial failure to linger.

1. BNTX down — confidence 72%. BNTX fell 7.13% on Oct 13 after AHEAD-MERIT Phase 2/3 BNT113 trial missed first primary PFS endpoint, disclosed as laggard. Catalyst is substantive negative for oncology pipeline. Market cap $22.36B as of Oct 13 close from stockanalysis, price $89.01 close, volume ~1M shares implies ~$90M dollar volume >$20M floor. With 52-week low $22 range, price still above $80 support. Continuation down expected as trial failure reprices pipeline. Latest price $89.01 is Oct 13 close per stockanalysis, delayed regular-session close, quote_time 2026-10-13T16:00:00-04:00. Observed reaction from prior close ~$95.84 to $89.01 is -7.13%. Further downside likely as analysts cut targets. Counter is oversold bounce after 7% drop. Invalidation above $96 prior close.
   Return: -0.91%; alpha: 1.70%.
2. MU up — confidence 65%. MU dropped 4.1% on Oct 13 to $948.27 range $929.03-$952.62 per Zacks report, fourth consecutive decline on China memory competition and Microsoft custom-chip concerns. Catalyst is sentiment-driven competitive fear, not Micron-specific earnings miss. Market cap >$100B easily passes $1B floor, price $953.19 close from CleaRank as of Oct 13, avg dollar volume multi-billion >$20M. Memory sector extended losses with SNDK also down. Reversal up expected as selloff looks extended and 20-day low near $920. Latest price $953.19 is Oct 13 close, prior close regular session, quote_time 2026-10-13T16:00:00-04:00, source CleaRank. Observed reaction -4.1% from ~$990 to ~$948. Partial bounce likely.
   Return: -6.86%; alpha: -6.07%.
3. MRNA up — confidence 60%. MRNA gained on Oct 13 with close $213.74 per Tickeron, up ~8% on week adding $4.2B market value on cancer-vaccine optimism and Nasdaq-100 inclusion per StockMonitor 08:01 Oct 13 report. Price $212.71 on Oct 14 per Midforex, market cap $85.8B as of Oct 13 per ad-hoc-news, price >$5, dollar volume >$20M. Substantive catalyst is index inclusion driving passive flows plus pipeline optimism. Continuation up expected as inclusion buying persists into Oct 14. Latest price $212.71 is Oct 14 early quote, delayed, quote_time 2026-10-14T09:00:00-04:00. Observed event-to-quote move from ~$205 pre-event to $212.71 is +3.7%. Momentum supports further.
   Return: 7.18%; alpha: 7.97%.
4. SNDK up — confidence 58%. SNDK fell 3.15% to $1581.82 on Oct 9 close per Kalkine, with Oct 13 trading near $1446.09 down 2.8% premarket per FX Leaders, extending memory chip weakness. No company-specific news, moving with sector. Market cap $212B as of Oct 13 per ad-hoc-news, price $1446, dollar volume >$20M. Catalyst is sentiment, not fundamentals. Reversal up expected after 37% fall from peak and washout. Latest price $1446.09 is Oct 13 premarket delayed, quote_time 2026-10-13T08:00:00-04:00. Observed move from $1581 to $1446 is -8.5% over two sessions. Bounce likely.
   Return: -9.90%; alpha: -9.11%.
5. AAPL up — confidence 55%. AAPL hit all-time intraday high $348.15 Oct 13 on new smart home accessories announcement per Barchart and JPMorgan raising target $340 to $360. Closed $345.79 vs prior $340.97 +1.41% per MarketBeat, qualifies as large-cap mover despite small percent due to $4.98T market cap and high dollar volume $2.6B (7.7M shares * $345). Catalyst is product lineup, substantive for services ecosystem but small revenue impact, largely sentiment. Continuation up expected as momentum above 50-day $323. Latest price $345.79 is Oct 13 close regular session, quote_time 2026-10-13T16:00:00-04:00. Observed move from $340.97 to $348.15 high is +2.1% intraday. Further upside possible.
   Return: 0.29%; alpha: 1.08%.

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Grok 4.5

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US equities opened mixed on October 14 after a mildly lower close on October 13 driven by bank earnings reactions, healthcare weakness and semiconductor pressure from overseas competition concerns. Energy names held relative strength while large-cap tech and financials showed selective selling. Liquidity remains adequate in mega-caps meeting the size and volume screens.

1. AMAT down — confidence 55%. Previous session closed down 6.69% on semiconductor equipment weakness tied to competitive DRAM concerns from Chinese producers. Latest quote ~$456 (intraday delayed, Oct 14 ~10:13 EDT, source stockanalysis.com) remains below prior close, reflecting continued pressure. Catalyst is sector sentiment rather than company-specific fundamentals change. Price history shows elevated volume on the decline supporting continuation of downside into the next close; counter-evidence is the long-term uptrend and strong balance sheet. Invalidation would be a close back above the Oct 13 high near $497. Avg dollar volume far exceeds $20M floor.
   Return: -7.64%; alpha: 8.43%.
2. JNJ down — confidence 58%. Closed down 5.73% on October 13 after Q3 results showed weaker medical-device sales despite EPS beat and raised guidance. Latest quote ~$251 (intraday, Oct 14 ~10:06 EDT, source chartexchange.com) shows modest recovery but remains well below prior close. Catalyst is substantive earnings detail rather than pure speculation. Volume spiked, supporting continuation of the post-earnings weakness into the next session. Counter-evidence is the guidance raise and defensive nature of the name. Invalidation is a sustained move back above the pre-earnings close near 264.
   Return: 3.36%; alpha: -2.57%.
3. VLO up — confidence 52%. Gained 4.69% on October 13 amid broader energy strength and refining margin optimism. Latest quote ~$454–461 range (intraday Oct 14, source stockanalysis.com) holds most of the prior-day advance. Catalyst is sector-level commodity and margin support rather than company-specific news. Elevated relative strength and volume support continuation higher. Counter-evidence is potential mean-reversion after a multi-month run. Invalidation would be a close below the October 12 close near 436.
   Return: -0.62%; alpha: 0.17%.
4. ORCL up — confidence 50%. Advanced 4.23% on October 13 on broader tech resilience and cloud demand optimism. Latest quote ~$133–143 (intraday Oct 14, source stockanalysis.com) shows some give-back but remains elevated versus prior sessions. Catalyst is largely sentiment around AI/cloud infrastructure. Volume was healthy; history supports continuation if sector holds. Counter-evidence is recent volatility and high valuation. Invalidation is a close below the October 12 level near 137.
   Return: -1.46%; alpha: -0.67%.
5. C down — confidence 54%. Dropped 5.60% on October 13 despite an earnings beat as investors focused on sequential declines in trading and investment-banking fees plus higher provisions. Latest quote ~$122 (intraday Oct 14, source stockanalysis.com) continues the weakness. Catalyst is substantive post-earnings detail on revenue quality. High volume supports continuation lower. Counter-evidence is the absolute EPS beat and capital strength. Invalidation is recovery above the pre-earnings close near 132.
   Return: -1.14%; alpha: 1.93%.

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GPT-6

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The October 13 source session featured sharp, company-specific moves alongside weaker technology and biotechnology sentiment and strength in US refiners. The October 14 US CPI release showed September headline inflation of 3.7% year over year, increasing interest-rate uncertainty. The five selections comprise three source-session decliners and two gainers. Forecasts favor continued weakness in CIFR and FUN, a reversal lower in PARR, continued strength in PBF, and a selective rebound in SNDX. The two refining stocks introduce correlated sector exposure. The scored window began October 14 at 10:07:44 EDT and ends October 15 at 10:07 EDT. Intraday observations are not substitutes for the authoritative starting prices, and no completed-window outcomes are assumed. The 20-session liquidity calculations use the arithmetic mean of daily closing price multiplied by daily share volume, with dollar results rounded downward. Completed-session OHLC statistics exclude October 14 trading. Primary screening sources: https://stocksetups.com/movers/nasdaq and https://stocksetups.com/movers/nyse. Inflation source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm.

1. CIFR down — confidence 74%. Ranked first for the forecast because an identified financing and dilution catalyst reinforces an established breakdown. CIFR was among the largest eligible Nasdaq decliners on October 13, falling 12.77%. On October 13, Cipher Digital disclosed a proposed $850 million zero-coupon convertible-note offering, potentially increasing to $1 billion, alongside plans to exchange existing convertible notes for common shares. This is a substantive capital-structure development rather than merely speculative sentiment. The completed-session price path was already deteriorating: October 7 closed at $14.56, October 8 at $13.50, October 9 at $13.52, October 12 at $13.00, and October 13 at $11.34. October 13 opened below the previous close, traded between $10.68 and $11.88, and recovered only partially from the session low. Its approximately 127.7 million shares of completed-session volume substantially exceeded the 20-session average of 38.18 million shares, indicating exceptionally active repricing without proving that sellers are exhausted. Latest verifiable quote: latest_price=10.48 USD; quote_time=2026-10-14T10:00:00-04:00; quote_type=regular-session; source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/cifr/. This quote predates the authoritative prediction time by approximately eight minutes. The October 14 opening price was $10.74, indicating additional weakness from the October 13 close. The October 12 close of $13.00 preceded the October 13 financing announcement; its change to the observed $10.48 quote is approximately -19.38%, although this includes broader trading influences and is not a pure event-effect estimate. The observed decline is already reflected in the reference price and is not counted as forecast profit. The remaining-window thesis is that financing uncertainty and the broken price structure produce additional selling. The strongest opposing evidence is the stock's substantial accumulated decline and potential value investors attracted by its data-center assets. A recovery above the verified October 13 high of $11.88 would undermine the bearish thesis. No synchronized quote at the authoritative window start was verified, so the elapsed-window return cannot be calculated. News: https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/why-is-cipher-digital-stock-sliding-today-93CH-4946548. Historical data: https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/cifr/history/.
   Return: -15.17%; alpha: 15.96%.
2. FUN down — confidence 69%. Six Flags was the largest percentage decliner on the October 13 NYSE mover list, with completed-session pricing indicating a 14.43% decline. The company suffered a serious reputational and operating setback following a fatal roller-coaster incident at Six Flags Over Georgia on October 12. Multiple rides were temporarily closed while investigations proceeded. The fatality and precautionary closures are verified events; the extent of future revenue, legal, insurance, and attendance effects remains uncertain. The stock closed October 7 at $11.63, October 8 and 9 at $11.41, October 12 at $11.92, and October 13 at $10.20. October 13 opened at $10.90, reached $11.26, fell to $9.80, and closed at $10.20. The lower close and a long upper wick indicate selling into attempted rebounds, while the recovery from $9.80 is meaningful counter-evidence. Completed-session volume of approximately 14.44 million shares was over four times the 20-session average. Latest verifiable quote: latest_price=9.65 USD; quote_time=2026-10-14T10:09:00-04:00; quote_type=regular-session; source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/fun/history/. The October 14 opening price was $9.96, and the later quote had fallen below October 13's $9.80 low. This observed weakness is not a prediction of a move still available. No reliable timestamped price immediately before the October 12 incident could be established; pre_event_price=null and event_to_quote_change_percent=null. The remaining-window thesis favors additional weakness while uncertainty persists over ride closures and passenger confidence. Counterarguments include a potentially excessive panic reaction and activist pressure for a strategic transaction. Reclaiming $11.26, the verified October 13 high, or a materially reassuring investigation and reopening announcement would weaken the bearish case. The October 13 market capitalization was approximately $1.04 billion, satisfying the screening requirement at the source-session close even though the October 14 quote implies a smaller current capitalization. Exact elapsed-window return is unavailable without a verified price at 10:07:44 EDT. News: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/six-flags-stock-slumps-near-52-week-lows-after-fatal-accident-3f938112 and https://people.com/six-flags-closes-9-rides-across-6-parks-after-fatal-incident-on-georgia-roller-coaster-12171686.
   Return: -11.65%; alpha: 12.44%.
3. PARR down — confidence 63%. Par Pacific appeared among the leading NYSE gainers on October 13, rising approximately 8.13%. Its fundamental backdrop is favorable: constrained international refining capacity and elevated refined-product margins have materially improved the earnings environment for US refiners. Par Pacific's previously reported second-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $571.3 million, versus $137.8 million a year earlier, supports the view that the sector strength has an economic basis. However, the October 13 rally also reflected expectations that strong margins will persist, and those expectations may already be substantially incorporated into the share price. The five completed closes were $86.12, $87.65, $81.89, $83.12, and $89.88. October 13 opened at $84.37, fell to $83.77, rallied to $90.17, and closed at $89.88 near its high. This closing position and a new 20-session high support bullish continuation, constituting important evidence against this reversal call. Latest verifiable quote: latest_price=87.95 USD; quote_time=2026-10-14T10:17:00-04:00; quote_type=regular-session; source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/parr/. The October 14 opening price was $90.42, above the previous close, but the subsequent observed quote fell below $89.88. The move from that morning's open to the latest quote is approximately -2.73%; this is observed, not forecast, and is not equivalent to a separately verified catalyst reaction. The early failure to maintain the opening advance motivates a short-horizon reversal call. The remaining forecast anticipates further weakness from the current quote as traders reassess an extended refiner rally. A sustained move above the verified October 13 high of $90.17 would undermine this view. No exact quote at the authoritative window start was verified, so elapsed-window performance is unknown. Sources: https://www.wsj.com/business/energy-oil/american-oil-refiners-are-printing-money-as-wars-shrink-global-energy-supplies-c9240231 and https://www.parpacific.com/press-releases/par-pacific-holdings-reports-second-quarter-2026-results.
   Return: -2.46%; alpha: 3.25%.
4. PBF up — confidence 58%. PBF Energy ranked among the leading eligible NYSE gainers on October 13 with a 7.23% increase. Rising refined-product margins, particularly for distillates, provide an economically substantive explanation for US refiner strength. BP's October 13 trading update independently confirmed exceptionally strong sector refining conditions, although BP's margins are not directly interchangeable with PBF's realized margins. PBF's completed-session closes were $83.68 on October 7, $89.34 on October 8, $84.27 on October 9, $85.02 on October 12, and $91.17 on October 13. The October 13 session opened at $85.87, briefly reached $85.32, and climbed to $91.53 before closing at $91.17. The close near the daily high and the breakout above the preceding 20-session range favor continuation, although rapid preceding gains also increase reversal risk. Latest verifiable quote: latest_price=90.25 USD; quote_time=2026-10-14T09:58:00-04:00; quote_type=regular-session; source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/pbf/history/. This quote predates the authoritative prediction time and is therefore not evidence of a realized return inside the scoring window. The October 14 partial-session snapshot showed open=$91.73, high_so_far=$92.46, low_so_far=$89.69, and cumulative_volume=474239 shares as of approximately 09:58 EDT; source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/pbf/history/. Relative intraday volume cannot be established without a same-time baseline. The opening gap was positive, but the later observed quote had fallen below the October 13 close. A distinct event-to-quote return is unavailable because the refining-margin catalyst developed over multiple sessions rather than at one verified announcement time. The forward thesis is that strong refining fundamentals can support recovery and another move higher over the remaining horizon. This is a lower-confidence continuation because early October 14 trading displayed profit-taking. Sustained trading below the previously established $89.34 closing level would weaken the forecast. News sources: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/bp-expects-significantly-higher-gas-trading-third-quarter-2026-10-13/ and https://www.tradingkey.com/news/market-movers/262214833-market-movers-pbf-20261013.
   Return: -2.49%; alpha: -1.70%.
5. SNDX up — confidence 54%. Syndax was among the largest eligible Nasdaq decliners on October 13, falling 15.71% after announcing that the MAXPIRe Phase 2 study of axatilimab in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis failed its primary endpoint. Management decided not to pursue further development for that indication. The failure is a substantive reduction in pipeline opportunity, not simply a change in sentiment. However, axatilimab's existing approved indication and Syndax's Revuforj franchise remain distinct from the failed pulmonary-fibrosis program. BofA Securities publicly characterized the selloff as potentially excessive because it attributed limited valuation to the unsuccessful indication, while lowering its target from $26 to $23. This provides a fundamental argument for a rebound independent of an oversold technical reading. Completed-session closes moved from $17.03 on October 7 to $16.90, $16.99, $16.55, and $13.95 on October 13. The October 13 session opened at $14.61, reached $14.74, fell to $13.49, and closed at $13.95. The negative gap and weak closing position argue against reversal, while recovery above the daily low is modest supportive evidence. Latest verifiable quote: latest_price=13.93 USD; quote_time=2026-10-14T10:11:00-04:00; quote_type=regular-session; source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/sndx/. The October 14 opening price was approximately $13.92, and the observed quote was near October 13's close. Because the trial results were announced after the October 12 regular session, the $16.55 October 12 close provides a pre-announcement reference. The observed change to $13.93 is approximately -15.83%, although this includes any other intervening market influences. Most of the initial event-driven repricing has therefore already occurred. The remaining-window forecast is for a limited rebound as investors distinguish the failed indication from the company's existing commercial franchises. The strongest contrary evidence is the permanent loss of an expansion opportunity and the continuing technical downtrend. A sustained decline below the verified October 13 low of $13.49 would invalidate the near-term stabilization thesis. No exact quote at the authoritative window start was verified. News: https://ca.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/why-is-syndax-pharmaceuticals-stock-sliding-today-93CH-4878262 and https://finance.yahoo.com/healthcare/articles/syndax-pharmaceuticals-selloff-ipf-trial-151208122.html.
   Return: 1.01%; alpha: 1.80%.

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DeepSeek

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US equities finished the Oct 13, 2026 source session mixed-to-lower: the Dow fell ~0.35%, the Nasdaq ~0.15% and the S&P 500 ~0.02%, with chip equipment and money-center banks hit hardest while refiners and energy rallied. Two dominant threads ran through the session: (1) a Q3 earnings-season opening that punished even several 'beat-and-raise' or 'beat' reporters (JNJ, C, DPZ) when a single segment or outlook disappointed, and (2) a semiconductor de-risking cascade after South Korea's KOSPI plunged 5.46% and Applied Materials declined to give an industry spending forecast. Into the Oct 14 target session I expect dispersion rather than a uniform risk-off tape: earnings-driven declines with weak closes (Citigroup) look most likely to extend, while oversold, catalyst-light mega-cap declines (Johnson & Johnson) and extended chip-equipment declines (Applied Materials) look most prone to mean-reversion bounces, and analyst-narrative-driven single-day pops (CDW) look most vulnerable to fading. All five selections clear the price >= $5, market cap >= $1B and 20-day average dollar volume >= $20M screens at the source-session close.

1. C down — confidence 65%. Citigroup closed the Oct 13 source session at $124.53, -5.60%, at the very bottom of its range (open $131.35, high $133.50, low $124.44), the weakest possible close and a high-volume distribution day (20.44M shares vs ~10.07M 20-day average). The catalyst is substantive and fundamental: Q3 2026 EPS and revenue beat, but investment-banking fees fell roughly 13% sequentially and management struck a cautious tone on the durability of the capital-markets recovery, prompting a surprise selloff on a headline beat. I read this as a genuine change to near-term business expectations (deal-fee momentum cooling), not pure sentiment, so the path of least resistance is continuation lower. Evidence supports continuation: a near-zero closing position within the day's range, volume roughly double the 20-day mean, and a break below the 20-session floor area. Counter-evidence is that the stock is not extended versus its 20-day range (low_20d $123.57 is only ~1% below the close) and valuation is not stretched, so an oversold bounce is possible. Live check: last trade $123.09 at 2026-10-14T14:46Z (Futunn, delayed intraday, ~1.2% below the Oct 13 close), confirming follow-through weakness; reference_price uses this delayed intraday quote rather than the Oct 13 close. Invalidation: a close back above the Oct 13 midpoint (~$128.97) or any credible announcement that the deal-fee slowdown is reversing would undermine the continuation thesis.
   Return: -1.14%; alpha: 1.93%.
2. JNJ up — confidence 57%. Johnson & Johnson fell 5.73% on Oct 13 to $248.61, its largest one-day drop since April 2025, on ~16.65M shares (about 2.3x the ~7.18M 20-day average). The catalyst is substantive but mixed: Q3 adjusted EPS beat, revenue rose ~6%, and full-year guidance was raised, yet the medtech division grew only ~2.5% and GAAP profit fell sharply on charges/impairments. I judge this a reversal (up) candidate because the market appears to have punished a diversified defensive that simultaneously raised guidance, and the selling looks sentiment/positioning-driven rather than a broad deterioration in business expectations. Price action supports at least a bounce: the stock gapped down, printed a low of $245.17 and closed at $248.61, roughly 31% up from the low (i.e., buyers appeared late), unlike C's close-at-the-low. Counter-evidence: the close was still in the lower third of the range, the name broke below its 100-day area, and medtech weakness is real. Live check: last trade $252.14 at 2026-10-14T15:19Z (Moomoo, regular-session intraday), ~1.4% above the Oct 13 close; reference_price uses this intraday quote. Invalidation: a close below the Oct 13 low ($245.17) on rising volume would signal that the medtech weakness is being repriced more deeply and would undermine the reversal-up thesis.
   Return: 3.36%; alpha: 4.15%.
3. AMAT up — confidence 55%. Applied Materials was the worst Nasdaq-100 performer on Oct 13, falling 6.69% to $464.24 on 10.93M shares (~1.7x the ~6.26M 20-day average). The catalyst is a mix of fact and sector sentiment: the company declined to provide an industry spending forecast at its investor day, and South Korea's KOSPI plunged 5.46%, triggering a broad semiconductor de-risking. I select it as a reversal (up) candidate because the move is now deeply extended — six consecutive down sessions and roughly -12.45% over the last five sessions, with the stock about 15% off its Oct 5 level — and because the trigger is largely external sector rotation rather than a company-specific estimate cut. Price action: the stock gapped down, printed a low of $452.81 and closed at $464.24, ~35% up from the low, showing intraday stabilization. Counter-evidence: the close was still well below the open ($485.40), the sector backdrop remains fragile, and a stock can keep falling after an extended run. Live check: last trade $458.72 at 2026-10-14T14:36Z (Moomoo, regular-session intraday), ~1.2% below the Oct 13 close; reference_price uses this intraday quote. Invalidation: a close below the Oct 13 low ($452.81) would confirm the breakdown rather than a bounce and would invalidate the reversal-up thesis.
   Return: -7.64%; alpha: -6.85%.
4. VLO up — confidence 54%. Valero Energy surged 4.69% on Oct 13 to $456.46, closing at ~96% of its daily range (open $440.00, high $457.20, low $438.20) and within a whisker of a new 20-day high, on 2.52M shares (below the ~3.58M 20-day average — a modest-volume breakout). The catalyst is an analyst action plus sector strength: Wells Fargo raised its price target to $485 from $389, and energy names rallied on firmer crude. I select it as a continuation (up) candidate because the close-at-the-high, the fresh 20-day high, and the improving macro-crack backdrop give the move follow-through potential, even though the primary catalyst is sell-side opinion rather than a hard fundamental change. Counter-evidence: the breakout came on below-average volume (a weaker signal), refining margins are volatile, and a post-target-hike pop frequently fades. Live check: last trade $459.32 (Marketscreener pre-market indication for Oct 14, ~0.6% above the Oct 13 close); reference_price uses this indication rather than the Oct 13 close. Invalidation: a close back below the Oct 13 open ($440.00), or a reversal of the crude/crack strength, would undermine the continuation-up thesis.
   Return: -0.62%; alpha: 0.17%.
5. CDW down — confidence 52%. CDW jumped 5.71% on Oct 13 to $151.97, closing at ~95% of its daily range (open $143.98, high $152.43, low $143.98) on 2.44M shares vs a ~1.48M 20-day average. The catalyst is largely narrative: a bullish Morgan Stanley call framing CDW as an enterprise AI/server play, reinforced by the completed acquisition of data/AI services firm Lovelytics. I select it as a reversal (down) candidate because the re-rating rests on sell-side framing rather than a verified change in near-term earnings power, the stock is now extended (~+12% over five sessions and near its 20-day high), and single-day analyst-driven pops in a low-beta IT distributor often fade. Price action nuance: despite the strong close, the stock was already giving back gains in after-hours (last trade $151.70, -0.18%) and is indicated lower on Oct 14 — a classic distribution signature. Counter-evidence: a 95%-of-range close on elevated volume is a genuinely strong momentum signal that can extend, and the AI-services acquisition is a real strategic positive. Live check: last trade $150.94 at 2026-10-14T15:45Z (Baidu Finance, regular-session intraday, ~0.7% below the Oct 13 close); reference_price uses this intraday quote. Invalidation: a close above the Oct 13 high ($152.43) would show the AI re-rating has legs and would undermine the reversal-down thesis.
   Return: 1.16%; alpha: -0.37%.

Full prediction and audit record

How models have done in Extreme Movers + OHLC

ForecastNest's own settled Extreme Movers + OHLC runs at this horizon, up to and including this one. Members' own research is not counted. Runs created after their scoring window began, or with an unverified start time, are excluded. The chart is the average directional return per run. A bar drawn pale is inside its own sample noise -- the runs behind it scatter too widely for that average to separate from zero -- so read the ordering as provisional until the record is deep enough to carry it. The table below adds how many of the five directions were called correctly, which is a steadier measure on a short record because it counts several picks a run rather than one result.

Chart note — “within noise”: The pale bar means the observed average is not clearly separated from zero by this chart's rule, or there is not enough information to assess it. A solid bar requires an average at least two standard errors from zero (standard error = sample standard deviation ÷ √runs). Fewer than two runs, missing variability, or zero measured variability remain pale. This is a rough uncertainty indicator, not proof of no effect or a guarantee of future performance.

Model	Runs	Avg directions called correctly	Avg directional return
GPT-6	3	73.33%	+2.00%
Perplexity	3	53.33%	+1.47%
Grok 4.5	2	60.00%	+0.95%
Gemini 1.5 Pro	2	67.50%	+0.38%
DeepSeek	3	46.67%	-0.52%
Muse Spark 1.1	3	46.67%	-1.08%
Grok 4	1	40.00%	-1.54%

View settlement prices

Symbol	Start	End	Source	Notes
AAPL	344.99500000	346.01000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/history/
AMAT	455.57500000	420.77000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMAT/history/
ASTS	43.47000000	40.66010000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ASTS/history/
BNTX	90.07000000	89.25000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BNTX/history/
C	121.96750000	120.58000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/C/history/
CDW	150.09000000	151.82500000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CDW/history/
CIFR	10.58600000	8.98020000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CIFR/history/
FUN	9.74000000	8.60500000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FUN/history/
JNJ	251.44250000	259.89000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/JNJ/history/
MRNA	213.67500000	229.01000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MRNA/history/
MU	942.53000000	877.85000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MU/history/
ORCL	133.22000000	131.27000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ORCL/history/
PARR	88.12010000	85.95000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PARR/history/
PBF	89.01750000	86.80000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PBF/history/
SNDK	1443.97300000	1300.99500000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SNDK/history/
SNDX	13.82000000	13.96000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SNDX/history/
SPY	773.07000000	766.96000000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY/history/
VLO	452.16000000	449.33500000	https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/VLO/history/

Standard prompt extreme-movers-v11+ohlc3, SHA-256 8dfe4b1f50657d897aa1212e46771e1a1dfa5e1885b8eedb6dfc31913fa36f81. The prompt is available to ForecastNest members; the fingerprint shows it was not changed after the fact.

Calculation: extreme-movers-ohlc-v1.