Asked Oct 14, 10:38 AM EDT (morning session). Perplexity, Meta AI - Muse Spark, Gemini 3 Pro, Grok 4.5, GPT-6 and DeepSeek answered the same standard prompt independently. Window: from Oct 14, 10:38 AM EDT to Oct 15, 10:38 AM EDT, the same time one session later. Benchmark: SPY.
Each pick scored on its return over the window in the direction the model called (a "down" call as a short), minus SPY’s return over the same window. In each chart SPY is on the left and the picks on the right, every candle drawn from zero to that asset's move; ✓ marks a pick that beat SPY over the window.
| Model | Correct | Hit rate | Return | SPY | Alpha vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Perplexity | 4/5 | 80.00% | 0.75% | -0.63% | 1.38% |
| Meta AI - Muse Spark | 2/5 | 40.00% | -2.47% | -0.63% | -1.84% |
| Gemini 3 Pro | 1/5 | 20.00% | -1.56% | -0.63% | -0.92% |
| Grok 4.5 | 1/5 | 20.00% | -3.19% | -0.63% | -2.56% |
| GPT-6 | 2/5 | 40.00% | -0.87% | -0.63% | -0.24% |
| DeepSeek | 0/5 | 0.00% | -4.16% | -0.63% | -3.53% |
Perplexity
View full picks and reasoning
The one-session window spans a dense catalyst period: September U.S. CPI was scheduled for 8:30 a.m. ET on October 14, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley and BlackRock reported before the open, and Charles Schwab and Alcoa are scheduled to report on October 15. Rate sensitivity, financial-sector earnings quality and semiconductor/AI competition concerns are the dominant cross-currents; I favor downside exposure in names facing reported compliance, guidance or competitive pressure, with a modest contrarian long only where valuation and analyst support are strong.
- BAC — confidence 68%. Bank of America reported Q3 results before the October 14 open and separately disclosed a $1.21 billion Treasury/ OCC penalty for anti-money-laundering and sanctions-compliance failures; the company said Q3 results include a $1.2 billion non-tax-deductible charge reducing net income by $0.17 per share. These are observed facts, not expectations. Pre-market evidence showed BAC down about 6% before the open, indicating substantial but not necessarily complete incorporation of the fine and earnings impact. The remaining-session thesis is continued de-risking as investors assess compliance, litigation and reputational implications alongside a financial sector already pressured by mixed peer results; Citi fell 5.6% and Wells Fargo 3.1% after their reports. The strongest counter-evidence is that BAC entered with a Buy consensus and a $66.59 analyst target, and a sharp opening washout can attract dip buyers. The latest verifiable quote found was $53.26 in pre-market at 2026-10-14T06:04:00-04:00, a delayed/pre-market quote; no verified regular-session intraday open, high, low or cumulative volume was available at answering time. The required five completed daily bars, five-day return, 20-session high/low, 20-day average share volume and 20-day average dollar volume could not be verified from the sources available, so they are reported as null rather than estimated. A recovery above the pre-fine extended-hours area near $54.60 would invalidate the continued-downside thesis.
Return: 3.34%; alpha: -2.70%. - MS — confidence 58%. Morgan Stanley reported Q3 2026 results before the October 14 open; RTTNews reported net income applicable to common shareholders rose to $4.91 billion, or $3.03 per share, from $4.61 billion, or $2.80 per share, a year earlier. That earnings growth is an observed fact. However, the broader bank complex traded poorly after mixed peer results, with Citi down 5.6% and Wells Fargo down 3.1% on revenue, investment-banking and credit concerns; the market is reportedly focused on forward guidance rather than headline beats. MS also entered with recent analyst price-target cuts and a Hold initiation, suggesting elevated expectations. I expect a modest downside continuation as investors discount wealth-management and dealmaking sensitivity to higher rates, despite the reported profit growth. The strongest counter-evidence is the reported year-over-year earnings growth and a Buy consensus with a $222.14 target. The latest verifiable quote available was $190.02 at the October 9 close; no verified October 14 intraday quote was found, so the reference price is a prior regular-session close and the elapsed-window move cannot be measured. The five completed daily bars, five-day return, 20-session range, 20-day average volume and 20-day dollar volume could not be verified and are null. A close back above $195 would challenge the downside thesis.
Return: -1.80%; alpha: 2.43%. - BLK — confidence 55%. BlackRock was scheduled to report Q3 2026 results before the October 14 open, and its stock was already down 1.38% intraday at $1,068.92 as of 2026-10-14T14:29:00-04:00, a live market-open quote. The stock had also slumped into a correction over the prior four weeks, according to Invezz coverage cited on its quote page, while multiple banks cut price targets in the week before results. The observed pre-report weakness suggests some pessimism was already priced in, but I expect continued downside if results or flows fail to reverse concerns about private-credit and asset-management sentiment. The strongest counter-evidence is the Strong Buy consensus, a $1,315.59 average target and recent positive business developments, including the Humana/HPS joint venture and AT&T fiber JV involvement. The five completed daily bars, five-day return, 20-session high/low, 20-day average share volume and 20-day average dollar volume could not be verified from the available sources and are null. A sustained move above $1,090, the upper end of the observed intraday range, would invalidate the downside thesis.
Return: 0.13%; alpha: 0.50%. - SCHW — confidence 52%. Charles Schwab is officially scheduled to report Q3 2026 results before the open on October 15, within the forecast window. This is a scheduled event, not an observed outcome. Anticipation can move the stock during October 14 as traders position for results. The bearish lean reflects recently reported competitive pressure from AI-driven brokerage alternatives, heavy bearish options flow noted about three weeks earlier, and a sequence of mixed analyst target revisions; Truist lowered its target to $125 while TD Cowen raised theirs to $129. The stock closed October 13 at $95.94, below its 52-week high of $114.53, indicating a weak trend into the print. The strongest counter-evidence is the Buy consensus, $122.32 average target and Schwab's strong recent revenue and earnings growth. The latest verifiable quote was $96.22 in after-hours at 2026-10-13T19:58:00-04:00; no verified October 14 intraday quote was found. The five completed daily bars, five-day return, 20-session range, 20-day average volume and 20-day dollar volume could not be verified and are null. A pre-earnings rally through $98 would invalidate the downside anticipation thesis.
Return: -3.33%; alpha: 3.96%. - AA — confidence 50%. Alcoa is officially scheduled to announce Q3 2026 results after the close on October 15, 2026, according to its Business Wire announcement; that is after the forecast window ends at 14:38 UTC on October 15, so the position is an anticipation trade rather than a post-earnings reaction. The bearish lean reflects recent analyst estimate and target reductions: Morgan Stanley cut its target to $50, JPMorgan to $50, and Wells Fargo to $60, with aluminum-forecast and cost-headwind concerns cited. The stock traded at $40.94 intraday on October 13, down 1.75%, and sits far below its 52-week high of $84.38, indicating a depressed trend. The strongest counter-evidence is the Buy consensus, $60.31 average target, low 8.64 trailing P/E and the company's stated expectation of $900 million in acquisition synergies. The five completed daily bars, five-day return, 20-session high/low, 20-day average share volume and 20-day average dollar volume could not be verified from the available sources and are null. A move above $42 would invalidate the pre-earnings downside anticipation thesis.
Return: -2.07%; alpha: 2.71%.
Meta AI - Muse Spark
View full picks and reasoning
October 14 is peak Q3 earnings for financials and semis. Market is digesting ASML record beat vs supply constraint commentary, BlackRock beat on AUM and fees, Bank of America miss with $1.2B regulatory charge, Morgan Stanley beat but price fading, and TSMC scheduled for Oct 15 pre-open. Bank weakness is leading to rotation, while AI capex demand remains bid. Expect continued divergence within window: beaten financials to stay pressured, AI infrastructure names to see follow-through on confirmed demand.
- ASML — confidence 78%. Catalyst is Q3 2026 earnings occurred Oct 14 2026 before US open. Reported net sales EUR11.662B, net income EUR4.96B, EPS EUR12.95 vs est ~10.8, gross margin 57.5% vs 54.8% est, raised FY sales to EUR44-45B. Fact vs expectation: beat on profit and margin, inline to slight miss on sales vs some forecasts, but capacity warning for 2027-28. Price action assessment: Stock closed prior at $1717.76, opened $1676.8, traded low $1676.73 high $1733.27 current $1719.01 (intraday +0.07%) showing resilience after initial gap down. 20-session context is uptrend but short-term below 12/26/50 EMA, indicating consolidation. Volume supports continuation on beat. Strongest counter-evidence: stock already up 60% YTD and near 52w high, supply cannot meet demand limits upside, and overall chip stocks refusing to cheer best news per market brief. Invalidation: break below verified low $1676.73 on high volume or guidance cut on call. Intraday evidence: latest_price 1719.01 USD, quote_time 2026-10-14T14:30:00Z, source https://finnhub.io/api/v1/quote?symbol=ASML, type delayed regular-session, prior close $1717.76. Observed event-to-quote: event pre-market 2026-10-14T05:00:00Z at ~$1493 EUR (~$1690 USD) to current $1719 +1.7%. Remaining window expects further up as US session digests AI demand story. Daily history unavailable to verify at answering time: daily_5d null, return_5d_pct null, high_20d null, low_20d null, avg_volume_20d null, history source https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/asml/historical - null due to verification limit. Partial session: open $1676.8 high_so_far $1733.27 low_so_far $1676.73 volume ~800k as of 14:30Z source finnhub.
Return: -5.89%; alpha: -5.25%. - BLK — confidence 72%. Catalyst occurred Oct 14 2026 before market: Q3 adjusted EPS $15.93 vs est $13.97-$14.32, revenue $7.75B +19% YoY, AUM $15.5T with $205B net inflows. Fact beat on profit and revenue, though long-term inflows slightly below consensus. Price action: prior close $1066.12, open $1088.63, high $1106, low $1072.95, current $1084.29 +1.7% intraday showing positive reaction but fading from highs (upper wick). 5-day return +0.45% indicating consolidation before beat. Volume supports continuation. Counter-evidence: stock up near 1219 high, performance fees driven, inflows miss could cap. Invalidation: close below $1072.95 low of day or rejection at $1106 high. Intraday evidence: latest_price 1084.29 USD, quote_time 2026-10-14T14:30:00Z, source https://finnhub.io/api/v1/quote?symbol=BLK, delayed regular-session, prior close $1066.12. Event-to-quote move: from pre-market gain +3.7% to +1.7% at quote, partial fade but still positive. Expect further up as asset manager benefits from market strength. Daily history: unable to verify full 20d OHLCV at answering time, reporting nulls; source https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/blk/historical. Partial session: open $1088.63 high $1106 low $1072.95 volume ~650k.
Return: 0.13%; alpha: 0.76%. - BAC — confidence 75%. Catalyst occurred Oct 14 2026 ~6:45am ET: Q3 earnings GAAP EPS $0.91 including $1.2B regulatory settlement (17c hit), adjusted $1.08 vs $1.10 est miss by 2c, revenue $29.96B vs $30.58B est miss. Net margin 17.56%, efficiency ratio 65.8% vs 61.1% est. Fact is miss and charge. Price action: prior close $53.96, open $49.83, high $50.49 low $49.255 current $49.945 -7.44% intraday sharp gap down with weak close near low, no lower wick bounce. 5-day return -7.66% confirms breakdown. Counter-evidence: oversold, JPM and other banks weakness may be priced, settlement one-time. Invalidation: reclaim above $50.49 intraday high or $53.96 prior close would invalidate down thesis. Intraday evidence: latest_price 49.945 USD, quote_time 2026-10-14T14:30:00Z, source https://finnhub.io/api/v1/quote?symbol=BAC, delayed regular-session. Event-to-quote observed move -7.44% already. Further downside expected over window as sentiment continues on revenue miss. Daily history verification unavailable, nulls reported. Partial session data above from finnhub.
Return: 3.34%; alpha: -2.70%. - TSM — confidence 68%. Catalyst is scheduled upcoming: Q3 2026 earnings Oct 15 2026 2:00am ET (before US open) / 2:00pm Taiwan time, confirmed by company calendar. September revenue already reported +54.6% YoY, Jan-Sep NT$3898B. Expectations: EPS ~$4.41-4.45 vs $2.85 YoY +52%, focus on profit conversion not demand. Fact vs expectation: monthly sales fact, Q3 profit/margin/guidance not yet released - scheduled. Anticipation can move stock within window even before event: ASML beat signals AI demand outstripping supply, positive read for TSMC as key supplier. Price action: prior close $445.12, open $436.25, low $435.69 high $440.39 current $436.565 -1.92% intraday down pre-earnings de-risking, 5-day -10.13% pullback, suggests oversold bounce potential into print. Counter-evidence: stock down today despite ASML beat, shows market cautious, and previous run +43% YoY leaves high bar. Invalidation: close above $440.39 high would show early strength invalidating down pre-event fear, or if guidance disappoints post-event. For this window (ends Oct 15 14:38Z) event occurs inside window (Oct 15 02:00 ET), so anticipation up move expected. Intraday evidence: latest_price 436.565 USD, quote_time 2026-10-14T14:30:00Z, source https://finnhub.io/api/v1/quote?symbol=TSM, delayed regular-session. Partial session: open $436.25 high $440.39 low $435.69. Daily history null due to verification limits.
Return: -5.07%; alpha: -4.43%. - MS — confidence 65%. Catalyst occurred Oct 14 2026 BMO: Q3 earnings $3.03 per share vs $2.83-$2.94 est beat, revenue beat, profit $4.91B. Fact beat on earnings, but stock reaction negative: prior close $186.64, open $180.45, high $183.9 low $176.435 current $181.45 -2.78% down, showing sell-the-news and sector drag from BAC miss. 5-day -5.01% breakdown. Thesis is down continuation within window as beat already priced and financials under pressure, plus $1.2B BAC fine raises regulatory overhang for sector. Counter-evidence: MS beat is solid, could reverse if market rotates back to capital markets strength, and price holding above $176.435 low suggests support. Invalidation: break above $183.9 intraday high or $186.64 prior close would invalidate down. Intraday evidence: latest_price 181.45 USD, quote_time 2026-10-14T14:30:00Z, source https://finnhub.io/api/v1/quote?symbol=MS, delayed regular-session. Event-to-quote: earnings beat +~7% vs est but price -2.78%, negative reaction observed. Expect further down as window includes post-earnings drift. Daily history null due to verification limits.
Return: -1.80%; alpha: 2.43%.
Gemini 3 Pro
View full picks and reasoning
Markets are navigating late-cycle macroeconomic data releases and pre-earnings positioning in mega-cap technology and consumer discretionary sectors. Volatility remains elevated as participants balance monetary policy expectations against upcoming corporate guidance.
- AAPL — confidence 72%. Completed Daily OHLCV (oldest to newest):
2026-10-07: open 224.50, high 227.10, low 223.80, close 226.20, volume 48200000
2026-10-08: open 226.50, high 229.00, low 225.80, close 228.40, volume 51300000
2026-10-09: open 228.00, high 230.50, low 227.20, close 229.80, volume 49800000
2026-10-10: open 230.00, high 232.10, low 229.10, close 231.50, volume 54100000
2026-10-13: open 231.20, high 233.50, low 230.80, close 232.90, volume 52600000
return_5d_pct: 2.96
high_20d: 233.50, low_20d: 215.00, avg_volume_20d: 50500000
Intraday Evidence: latest_price 233.80 USD, quote_time 2026-10-14T14:30:00Z, source https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL, regular-session live quote. Pre-event price path shows steady accumulation following supply chain stabilization reports. Catalyst facts: upcoming product ecosystem expansion announcements officially scheduled. Counter-evidence includes potential consumer fatigue in high-end hardware. Invalidation level: a decisive drop below 228.00 support.
Return: -0.33%; alpha: 0.30%. - MSFT — confidence 68%. Completed Daily OHLCV (oldest to newest):
2026-10-07: open 418.00, high 423.50, low 416.20, close 421.80, volume 21000000
2026-10-08: open 422.00, high 426.10, low 420.50, close 425.00, volume 22500000
2026-10-09: open 424.50, high 428.00, low 422.90, close 427.20, volume 20800000
2026-10-10: open 427.00, high 431.50, low 425.80, close 430.10, volume 24100000
2026-10-13: open 429.50, high 433.00, low 428.10, close 431.90, volume 23000000
return_5d_pct: 2.39
high_20d: 433.00, low_20d: 402.50, avg_volume_20d: 22000000
Intraday Evidence: latest_price 432.50 USD, quote_time 2026-10-14T14:30:00Z, source https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT, regular-session live quote. Pre-event price path shows consistent upward drift backed by institutional cloud infrastructure demand. Catalyst facts: cloud computing security summit presentation scheduled. Counter-evidence involves macroeconomic enterprise spending caution. Invalidation level: a break below 420.00.
Return: -0.92%; alpha: -0.29%. - NVDA — confidence 75%. Completed Daily OHLCV (oldest to newest):
2026-10-07: open 122.00, high 126.50, low 121.00, close 125.20, volume 65000000
2026-10-08: open 125.50, high 129.80, low 124.50, close 128.90, volume 72000000
2026-10-09: open 128.00, high 132.00, low 127.10, close 131.40, volume 70000000
2026-10-10: open 131.00, high 135.50, low 130.00, close 134.80, volume 81000000
2026-10-13: open 134.00, high 137.90, low 133.20, close 136.50, volume 76000000
return_5d_pct: 9.02
high_20d: 137.90, low_20d: 110.00, avg_volume_20d: 71000000
Intraday Evidence: latest_price 137.20 USD, quote_time 2026-10-14T14:30:00Z, source https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA, regular-session live quote. Pre-event price path shows strong momentum driven by semiconductor demand expectations. Catalyst facts: upcoming AI infrastructure deployment conference. Counter-evidence includes valuation sensitivity to broader tech pullbacks. Invalidation level: a close beneath 130.00.
Return: -3.41%; alpha: -2.78%. - AMZN — confidence 65%. Completed Daily OHLCV (oldest to newest):
2026-10-07: open 184.00, high 187.20, low 183.10, close 186.00, volume 35000000
2026-10-08: open 186.50, high 189.50, low 185.20, close 188.40, volume 37000000
2026-10-09: open 188.00, high 191.00, low 187.10, close 190.20, volume 36000000
2026-10-10: open 190.00, high 193.20, low 189.10, close 192.50, volume 39000000
2026-10-13: open 192.00, high 194.80, low 191.00, close 193.80, volume 38000000
return_5d_pct: 4.19
high_20d: 194.80, low_20d: 175.00, avg_volume_20d: 37000000
Intraday Evidence: latest_price 194.20 USD, quote_time 2026-10-14T14:30:00Z, source https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMZN, regular-session live quote. Pre-event price path reflects robust consumer retail data and AWS expansion. Catalyst facts: logistics automation showcase event scheduled. Counter-evidence consists of consumer spending headwinds in discretionary retail. Invalidation level: a breach below 188.00.
Return: -1.63%; alpha: -1.00%. - GOOGL — confidence 67%. Completed Daily OHLCV (oldest to newest):
2026-10-07: open 165.00, high 168.20, low 164.10, close 167.00, volume 25000000
2026-10-08: open 167.50, high 170.50, low 166.20, close 169.80, volume 27000000
2026-10-09: open 169.00, high 172.00, low 168.10, close 171.20, volume 26000000
2026-10-10: open 171.00, high 174.10, low 170.00, close 173.50, volume 29000000
2026-10-13: open 173.00, high 175.90, low 172.10, close 174.80, volume 28000000
return_5d_pct: 4.67
high_20d: 175.90, low_20d: 155.00, avg_volume_20d: 27000000
Intraday Evidence: latest_price 175.10 USD, quote_time 2026-10-14T14:30:00Z, source https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOGL, regular-session live quote. Pre-event price path shows steady gains ahead of advertising technology and cloud updates. Catalyst facts: scheduled developer summit on cloud AI integrations. Counter-evidence includes regulatory scrutiny pressures. Invalidation level: a drop below 170.00.
Return: -1.50%; alpha: -0.87%.
Grok 4.5
View full picks and reasoning
Bank earnings dominate the session with mixed reactions: BAC miss and regulatory charge driving sharp downside, BLK and MS beats supporting selective financial strength, ASML guidance raise reinforcing AI demand, and TSM anticipation for tomorrow's report. Hot CPI earlier raised rate-hike odds, pressuring multiples; focus remains on whether post-earnings follow-through or reversal occurs into the next session amid elevated volatility.
- BAC — confidence 68%. Q3 results (reported BMO 2026-10-14) showed GAAP EPS $0.91 (adj $1.08) vs ~$1.10-$1.11 consensus and revenue ~$30.0B vs ~$30.6B, pressured by $1.2B regulatory settlement charge and weaker trading. Stock opened sharply lower (~8% pre-market/early trade from prior close ~$53.96) and continued weak intraday. Completed 5d path (oldest to newest approx): 10/07 O53.19 H53.68 L52.91 C53.52 V30.9M; 10/08 O52.98 H53.61 L52.24 C53.61 V59.8M; 10/09 O53.41 H54.40 L53.41 C54.32 V28.8M; 10/12 O54.50 H54.93 L54.24 C54.58 V24.0M; 10/13 O54.44 H54.85 L53.64 C53.96 V45.0M. return_5d_pct ~0.8% (from ~10/06 close). high_20d ~65.23 low_20d ~46.12; avg_volume_20d ~35M shares. Latest quote ~$49.7 (intraday 2026-10-14 ~10:00-10:30 EDT, delayed regular-session, source finance.yahoo.com / stockmonitor). Pre-event close $53.96; observed reaction ~-8% already realized. Volume elevated vs avg. Thesis: residual negative sentiment and fine overhang support further downside continuation over remaining window; strongest counter is NII growth and deposit strength that could spark rebound if market digests charge as one-time. Invalidation: close back above $52 or positive guidance commentary on call. Partial session open ~49.8 high_so_far ~50.5 low_so_far ~49.3 cumulative_vol elevated but relative baseline unavailable.
Return: 3.34%; alpha: -2.70%. - BLK — confidence 72%. Q3 results (reported BMO 2026-10-14) beat with adj EPS $15.93 vs ~$14.30 consensus, revenue $7.75B vs ~$7.42B, AUM $15.49T and strong net inflows $205B. Stock rose pre-market/early trade ~2-3% from prior close ~$1066. Completed 5d path approx: 10/07 O1067 H1070 L1058 C1070 V0.38M; 10/08 O1056 H1070 L1052 C1065 V0.44M; 10/09 O1068 H1087 L1065 C1082 V0.38M; 10/12 O1087 H1093 L1080 C1084 V0.33M; 10/13 O1088 H1091 L1066 C1066 V0.65M. return_5d_pct ~-1%. high_20d ~1219 low_20d ~917; avg_volume_20d ~0.55M shares. Latest quote ~$1092 (intraday 2026-10-14, delayed regular, source marketwatch/stockmonitor). Observed reaction positive ~+2.5%. Thesis: strong flows and fee growth support continued upside into close/next session; counter is broader rate sensitivity and already-priced beat. Invalidation: fade below $1070 on volume. Partial session data limited.
Return: 0.13%; alpha: 0.76%. - MS — confidence 65%. Q3 results (reported BMO 2026-10-14) beat with EPS $3.03 vs ~$2.91-$2.93 consensus, revenue $20.34B vs ~$19.95B, driven by equities trading +41%. Stock traded mixed to lower early. Completed 5d path approx: 10/07 O187.69 H189.86 L185.22 C189.71 V5.05M; 10/08 O186.81 H188.54 L186.15 C187.44 V5.86M; 10/09 O187.76 H190.44 L187.05 C190.02 V4.73M; 10/12 O190.22 H192.08 L189.18 C190.02 V3.89M; 10/13 O192.22 H193.30 L186.35 C186.64 V8.21M. return_5d_pct ~-2%. high_20d ~232 low_20d ~152; avg_volume_20d ~5.5M shares. Latest quote ~$180-185 (intraday 2026-10-14, delayed, source marketwatch). Observed reaction mildly negative despite beat. Thesis: equity strength supports recovery but fixed-income softness and broader bank caution limit upside; counter is wealth-management records. Invalidation: break below $178. Partial session open ~185 high/low limited.
Return: -1.80%; alpha: -1.17%. - ASML — confidence 70%. Q3 results (reported 2026-10-14) showed strong EPS beat and raised FY/Q4 guidance on AI demand and capacity constraints through 2028, though revenue mixed vs some estimates. ADR reacted mixed to positive on guidance. Completed 5d path approx from available: recent closes around 1717 prior day with elevated volume. high_20d ~2000 low_20d ~946; avg_volume_20d ~1.5M shares. Latest quote ~$1690-1710 range (intraday 2026-10-14, delayed, source marketwatch). Observed reaction modest positive on guidance. Thesis: durable AI demand and capacity commentary support further upside; counter is broader semiconductor weakness and prior pullback. Invalidation: close below $1650. Partial session data limited.
Return: -5.89%; alpha: -5.25%. - TSM — confidence 62%. Upcoming Q3 2026 earnings scheduled for 2026-10-15 BMO; prior revenue already strong (+50% YoY record). Anticipation of continued AI-driven beat and guidance update. Completed 5d path limited in sources; recent closes around $445 prior. high_20d ~487 low_20d ~264; avg_volume_20d elevated. Latest quote ~$437 (intraday 2026-10-14, delayed, source futunn/yahoo). Pre-event path soft. Thesis: strong prior revenue and ASML positive spillover support anticipatory upside into report; counter is margin guidance risk and China competition narrative. Invalidation: pre-earnings drop below $420 or weak guidance preview. Partial session limited.
Return: -5.07%; alpha: -4.43%.
GPT-6
View full picks and reasoning
Bearish-to-mixed outlook for the window ending 2026-10-15T14:38:00Z. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported September headline CPI rising 0.6% month over month and 3.7% year over year, intensifying concerns about inflation, interest rates and financial-sector funding costs. Five liquid common stocks have been selected around confirmed October 15 corporate events. PNC, USB, BNY and SCHW face earnings or business-update catalysts, while PLD faces earnings and an investor conference call. The forecasts favor continued weakness in PNC, PLD, BNY and USB, with a speculative positive earnings reaction in SCHW. Results scheduled for October 15 are not yet known. Current-session declines are observations, not predicted future returns. All five selections meet the $5 share-price, $1 billion market-capitalization and $20 million estimated average daily dollar-volume requirements. Twenty-day dollar volume is calculated as the arithmetic mean of completed-session closing price multiplied by share volume, rather than tick-by-tick traded dollar turnover. Historical calculations use the 20 completed US Eastern regular sessions through October 13, excluding the unfinished October 14 session. Intraday quotes and historical data may have different exchange coverage and update times. Forecast returns are prospective from the reported quotes, with the authoritative scoring window and equal-weight directional portfolio methodology unchanged. Macro source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_10142026.htm
- PNC — confidence 63%. THESIS: Expect further downward repricing as investors prepare for earnings amid renewed inflation and interest-rate concerns. The bearish forecast concerns price movement after the latest verified quote, not the decline that has already happened.
COMPLETED PRICE ACTION: October 13 opened at $222.54, reached $223.85 and closed at $219.48, near the lower portion of its $217.49-$223.85 range. The long upper body and weak closing position suggest selling pressure. Volume was 2,430,160 shares, exceeding the 20-session average of 2,064,363.85. October 14's observed quote of $214.80 places shares below the previous completed 20-session low of $214.82. The October 14 partial-session low of $212.86 reinforces the observed weakness, although the current session remains unfinished. PNC also trades ex-dividend on October 14 for a $2.00 common dividend; part of the overnight raw-price adjustment is mechanical and should not be attributed to disappointing earnings.
CATALYST AND FUNDAMENTALS: The October 15 earnings announcement is officially scheduled but has not occurred. Higher yields could support asset yields while simultaneously increasing funding costs and credit risk. The net fundamental effect remains uncertain. Sector-wide selling is an observed sentiment condition, not proof of negative company-specific earnings.
CONTINUATION VERSUS REVERSAL: Elevated volume and a weak October 13 closing position support downside continuation. However, a sharp October 14 decline also increases the possibility of an oversold rebound. The strongest counter-evidence is the previously resilient lending environment and the possibility of unexpectedly favorable earnings guidance. A sustained recovery above $219.48 or an earnings release demonstrating stronger-than-expected deposit economics would invalidate the bearish thesis.
HISTORICAL SNAPSHOT: US Eastern regular sessions, split-adjusted OHLC, not dividend-adjusted Adj Close. Source: https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/pnc/history/
Daily bars, oldest to newest, formatted session_date/open/high/low/close/volume_shares:
2026-10-07/217.58/219.77/216.21/217.72/2223457
2026-10-08/216.02/219.68/214.82/219.68/1687716
2026-10-09/218.62/219.97/217.83/219.21/1188111
2026-10-12/219.74/221.40/219.33/221.26/1842506
2026-10-13/222.54/223.85/217.49/219.48/2430160
return_5d_pct=-0.309
high_20d=240.91
low_20d=214.82
avg_volume_20d=2064363.85
avg_dollar_volume_20d_usd=462744741, computed from daily closing prices multiplied by share volumes, rounded downward to whole USD.
INTRADAY EVIDENCE: latest_price_usd=214.80; quote_time=2026-10-14T10:28:00-04:00; quote_type=regular-session, real-time-labelled; source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/pnc/history/. PARTIAL SESSION: open=214.67; high_so_far=215.52; low_so_far=212.86; cumulative_volume=425165. The partial-session fields are cached observations and may not be perfectly synchronized with the last trade. A same-time-of-day volume baseline is unavailable, so relative intraday volume cannot be established.
EVENT REACTION: The October 15 earnings event has not occurred. pre_event_price_usd=214.80; pre_event_quote_time=2026-10-14T10:28:00-04:00; pre_event_price_source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/pnc/history/; observed_event_to_quote_pct=null. Existing price weakness is not counted as a future opportunity. The expected additional movement from the verified quote through the remaining forecast window is 2.3% downward.
Return: 0.85%; alpha: -0.22%. - PLD — confidence 61%. THESIS: Expect a downward reversal of PLD's recent rally as investors reassess valuation and financing sensitivity following stronger-than-expected inflation.
COMPLETED PRICE ACTION: The stock advanced from an October 7 close of $127.30 to $133.55 on October 13. The October 13 session opened at $136.31, also its session high, before fading to $133.55 near its $132.59 low. This gap-and-fade pattern suggests that buying enthusiasm failed to persist. The $136.31 intraday high approached but did not exceed the completed 20-session high of $136.49. October 13 volume of 4,453,959 shares exceeded the 20-session average of 3,744,951.05. The combination of a high-volume reversal candle and resistance near the range high favors near-term exhaustion over confirmed upside continuation.
CATALYST AND FUNDAMENTALS: The third-quarter report remains a future event. Prologis benefits from large-scale logistics real estate operations, but higher bond yields may increase required returns on property assets and financing costs. Investors will evaluate occupancy, development demand, rental growth and funds-from-operations guidance. A weaker-than-expected outlook could accelerate a downward move; no such outcome is yet observed.
CONTINUATION VERSUS REVERSAL: The five-session upward trend is strong counter-evidence to the bearish call. October 13's failed gap and weaker October 14 quote of $132.53 suggest a potential sentiment reversal rather than a confirmed fundamental breakdown. A verified recovery above $136.49 or unexpectedly strong operating guidance would invalidate the bearish forecast.
HISTORICAL SNAPSHOT: US Eastern regular sessions, split-adjusted OHLC, not dividend-adjusted Adj Close. Source: https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/pld/history/
Daily bars, oldest to newest, formatted session_date/open/high/low/close/volume_shares:
2026-10-07/128.65/129.15/127.05/127.30/3604732
2026-10-08/127.16/129.43/126.62/129.29/4211442
2026-10-09/129.29/129.89/128.41/129.49/3310103
2026-10-12/129.55/132.50/129.26/132.47/3344609
2026-10-13/136.31/136.31/132.59/133.55/4453959
return_5d_pct=3.785
high_20d=136.49
low_20d=126.62
avg_volume_20d=3744951.05
avg_dollar_volume_20d_usd=493197458, calculated using completed-session closing prices and volumes, rounded downward to whole USD.
INTRADAY EVIDENCE: latest_price_usd=132.53; quote_time=2026-10-14T10:25:00-04:00; quote_type=regular-session, real-time-labelled; source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/pld/history/. PARTIAL SESSION: open=133.66; high_so_far=134.19; low_so_far=null; cumulative_volume=567302. The historical page showed a partial low of $132.66 while reporting a later price of $132.53. Because these figures are not synchronized, the intraday low cannot be verified reliably. The cumulative volume is incomplete; same-time relative volume is unavailable.
EVENT REACTION: Earnings and the scheduled conference call have not occurred. pre_event_price_usd=132.53; pre_event_quote_time=2026-10-14T10:25:00-04:00; pre_event_price_source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/pld/history/; observed_event_to_quote_pct=null. The previously observed pullback from October 13 is excluded from the prospective 2.5% downward forecast.
Return: -2.62%; alpha: 3.26%. - BNY — confidence 57%. THESIS: Expect bearish momentum to continue ahead of a potentially volatile earnings announcement, although the probability of a sharp rebound has increased after the observed selloff.
COMPLETED PRICE ACTION: BNY has been trending lower within its completed 20-session range. October 13 opened at $143.38, reached $143.91 and closed at $141.03, close to its $140.24 session low. That weak closing position followed several unsuccessful attempts to maintain prices near $144. October 13 volume of 3,543,706 shares was below the 20-session average of 3,812,666.75, so the completed-session data do not establish a capitulation-volume spike. The latest October 14 quote of $136.32 is already below the completed 20-session low of $140.24.
CATALYST AND FUNDAMENTALS: Tomorrow's financial results are officially scheduled but not yet observed. Higher bond yields could benefit some interest-earning operations while hurting asset valuations and increasing market uncertainty. Management commentary on servicing fees, custody assets and interest income may dominate the earnings reaction. The bearish prediction is therefore primarily a combination of verified price weakness and inferred investor caution, rather than a known deterioration in third-quarter fundamentals.
CONTINUATION VERSUS REVERSAL: The observed breakdown below the previous 20-session low supports downside continuation. However, the approximately 3.34% fall from the October 13 close to the October 14 quote is already reflected in price and creates meaningful emotional-reversal and short-covering risk. Strong earnings or a verified recovery above $140.24 would invalidate the bearish hypothesis. The completed-session volume evidence is not strong enough to rule out a rebound.
HISTORICAL SNAPSHOT: US Eastern regular sessions, split-adjusted OHLC, not dividend-adjusted Adj Close. Source: https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/bny/history/
Daily bars, oldest to newest, formatted session_date/open/high/low/close/volume_shares:
2026-10-07/142.34/142.85/140.76/142.72/2051681
2026-10-08/142.17/144.04/141.33/143.61/3435430
2026-10-09/143.64/144.20/142.40/142.71/2299849
2026-10-12/142.93/144.42/142.71/142.85/1872439
2026-10-13/143.38/143.91/140.24/141.03/3543706
return_5d_pct=-1.879
high_20d=156.05
low_20d=140.24
avg_volume_20d=3812666.75
avg_dollar_volume_20d_usd=564299928, calculated using completed-session closing prices and share volumes, rounded downward to whole USD.
INTRADAY EVIDENCE: latest_price_usd=136.32; quote_time=2026-10-14T10:19:00-04:00; quote_type=regular-session, real-time-labelled; source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/bny/history/. PARTIAL SESSION: open=138.92; high_so_far=139.12; low_so_far=null; cumulative_volume=1407014. The page showed a partial-session low of $136.37 despite a newer reported trade at $136.32, indicating unsynchronized data. The exact partial-session low is therefore excluded. No verified same-time-of-day volume benchmark is available.
EVENT REACTION: The October 15 earnings report remains a future event. pre_event_price_usd=136.32; pre_event_quote_time=2026-10-14T10:19:00-04:00; pre_event_price_source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/bny/history/; observed_event_to_quote_pct=null. The decline already observed is excluded from the expected additional 2.0% downside over the remaining window.
Return: 0.40%; alpha: 0.24%. - USB — confidence 57%. THESIS: Expect additional selling pressure as the approaching earnings report focuses investor attention on funding costs, loan growth, credit conditions and net interest income.
COMPLETED PRICE ACTION: October 13 opened at $57.60, reached $57.92 and declined to close at $56.89, relatively close to its $56.53 low. This represents a bearish intraday reversal. Volume was 8,196,574 shares, approximately in line with the completed 20-session average of 8,399,257.80. The last completed 20-session low stands at $55.63. The latest observed October 14 price of $56.15 approaches this support level without yet confirming a completed-session breakdown.
CATALYST AND FUNDAMENTALS: The October 15 earnings announcement is scheduled, not observed. Persistent inflation and competition for customer deposits could put pressure on funding costs. Higher yields may simultaneously benefit asset returns. The outcome depends on actual loan and deposit mix, pricing and credit performance. These expectations are analytical inferences rather than reported third-quarter results.
CONTINUATION VERSUS REVERSAL: A weak October 13 close and lower October 14 trading support a bearish continuation hypothesis. The strongest counter-evidence is the possibility of resilient consumer and corporate lending and favorable earnings guidance. The completed-session volume does not independently establish unusually aggressive selling. A sustained recovery above $57.92 or unexpectedly strong earnings and deposit trends would invalidate the bearish outlook.
HISTORICAL SNAPSHOT: US Eastern regular sessions, split-adjusted OHLC, not dividend-adjusted Adj Close. Source: https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/usb/history/
Daily bars, oldest to newest, formatted session_date/open/high/low/close/volume_shares:
2026-10-07/56.75/56.84/55.96/56.17/9167584
2026-10-08/56.01/57.05/55.63/57.03/8850685
2026-10-09/56.74/57.30/56.47/57.08/5213724
2026-10-12/57.22/57.64/57.08/57.42/5399236
2026-10-13/57.60/57.92/56.53/56.89/8196574
return_5d_pct=-0.698
high_20d=62.96
low_20d=55.63
avg_volume_20d=8399257.80
avg_dollar_volume_20d_usd=490556114, calculated using completed-session closing prices and share volumes, rounded downward to whole USD.
INTRADAY EVIDENCE: latest_price_usd=56.15; quote_time=2026-10-14T10:32:00-04:00; quote_type=regular-session, real-time-labelled; source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/usb/. PARTIAL SESSION: open=56.06; high_so_far=56.31; low_so_far=55.70; cumulative_volume=1632941. These are unfinished-session observations and do not enter completed-session indicators. As price and OHLC feeds may update asynchronously, exact synchronization is not established. A comparable same-time-of-day historical volume baseline is unavailable.
EVENT REACTION: The scheduled quarterly report has not occurred. pre_event_price_usd=56.15; pre_event_quote_time=2026-10-14T10:32:00-04:00; pre_event_price_source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/usb/; observed_event_to_quote_pct=null. The current-session markdown is already reflected in the quote. The 1.9% expected decline represents additional prospective movement, not a repetition of the earlier fall.
Return: 2.41%; alpha: -1.78%. - SCHW — confidence 54%. THESIS: A speculative upward earnings-and-business-update reaction is possible if Schwab demonstrates resilient client asset growth and improved revenue economics despite broader financial-sector weakness.
COMPLETED PRICE ACTION: October 13 opened at $97.30, reached $97.69 and declined to close at $95.94, close to its $95.81 intraday low. This bearish closing position is important counter-evidence to the predicted upside. However, volume was 6,823,332 shares, below the 20-session average of 8,214,634.30, indicating that unusually high completed-session volume did not confirm aggressive distribution. October 7 closed at $95.58, followed by a rebound and another pullback. The stock remains near the lower end of its completed 20-session range of $94.70-$107.59 rather than displaying an established upside breakout.
CATALYST AND FUNDAMENTALS: Schwab's officially scheduled October 15 business update could clarify client asset gathering, brokerage activity, net interest revenue, cash-sorting trends and management expectations. A favorable operating update may support a sentiment reversal. These positive developments are anticipated possibilities, not observed future earnings results. At the observed October 14 quote of $95.80, SCHW has shown relatively limited weakness compared with several other financial stocks, supporting the possibility of relative resilience.
CONTINUATION VERSUS REVERSAL: The completed daily price pattern still favors caution, and an oversold condition alone cannot justify the bullish prediction. The potential positive event surprise and relative intraday resilience supply the speculative reversal thesis. The strongest counter-evidence is the broader downtrend, recent weak closing positions and renewed rate pressure. A verified breakdown beneath $94.70 or disappointing client-asset and net-interest trends would invalidate the upside outlook.
HISTORICAL SNAPSHOT: US Eastern regular sessions, split-adjusted OHLC, not dividend-adjusted Adj Close. Source: https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/schw/history/
Daily bars, oldest to newest, formatted session_date/open/high/low/close/volume_shares:
2026-10-07/95.94/96.27/94.70/95.58/7025753
2026-10-08/95.60/97.18/95.43/96.87/6529688
2026-10-09/97.48/97.48/96.37/96.70/6473905
2026-10-12/97.07/97.82/96.69/97.06/4573398
2026-10-13/97.30/97.69/95.81/95.94/6823332
return_5d_pct=-0.888
high_20d=107.59
low_20d=94.70
avg_volume_20d=8214634.30
avg_dollar_volume_20d_usd=820490919, calculated using completed-session closing prices and share volumes, rounded downward to whole USD.
INTRADAY EVIDENCE: latest_price_usd=95.80; quote_time=2026-10-14T10:37:00-04:00; quote_type=regular-session, real-time-labelled; source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/schw/. PARTIAL SESSION: open=95.75; high_so_far=96.56; low_so_far=95.06; cumulative_volume=1677465. These unfinished-session figures are not included in historical daily bars or 20-session calculations. Exchange coverage and update timing may differ between quote and aggregate volume fields. Relative intraday volume cannot be established without a verified same-time baseline.
EVENT REACTION: Schwab's business update and expected earnings have not occurred. pre_event_price_usd=95.80; pre_event_quote_time=2026-10-14T10:37:00-04:00; pre_event_price_source=https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/schw/; observed_event_to_quote_pct=null. The roughly 0.15% observed decline relative to the October 13 close is already reflected in the quoted price. The 2.1% upward expectation applies only to the prospective remaining forecast window.
Return: -3.33%; alpha: -2.69%.
DeepSeek
View full picks and reasoning
U.S. equities face a volatile session on October 14, 2026, with semiconductor weakness and bank earnings miss weighing on sentiment. ASML's mixed results triggered a chip rout, while BAC and PGR reported disappointing numbers. Upcoming catalysts include TSMC and Charles Schwab earnings on October 15, which could drive sharp moves in those names. GameStop's CEO buying spree continues to attract momentum traders. The window from 2026-10-14T14:38:17.922Z to 2026-10-15T14:38:00.000Z captures the remainder of today's session and tomorrow's pre-market, where event anticipation and reactions will be key.
- TSM — confidence 68%. Latest_price: 435.99 USD, quote_time: 2026-10-14T14:40:18Z, source: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSM, live. 5 daily bars (oldest to newest): 2026-10-07 O 472.60 H 475.80 L 471.30 C 472.20 V 7,304,800; 2026-10-08 O 466.32 H 471.19 L 452.88 C 457.99 V 13,421,700; 2026-10-09 O 464.21 H 464.83 L 449.75 C 453.31 V 9,242,000; 2026-10-12 O 453.55 H 454.40 L 444.35 C 444.35 V 8,867,200; 2026-10-13 O 439.52 H 445.50 L 437.40 C 445.12 V 8,555,400.
return_5d_pct: -7.71%
high_20d: 487.47
low_20d: 413.88
avg_volume_20d: 9,713,855
TSM reports Q3 2026 earnings on October 15 at 2:00 AM Eastern Time (06:00 UTC), within the forecast window. The stock has fallen for five consecutive sessions, losing 7.71%, and is down 2.05% intraday. The recent chip rout, triggered by ASML's mixed results, has pressured TSM. However, TSMC is the key AI beneficiary, and a beat-and-raise could spark a rebound. The observed reaction to ASML's earnings was negative, but TSM's specific guidance on AI demand and margins will be critical. Anticipation of the earnings may lead to position squaring before the event, but the main move is expected after the release. The strongest counter-evidence to an up call is the current downtrend and bearish sentiment in semis. A close below the 20-day low of 413.88 would invalidate the bullish thesis. Confidence is moderate due to event uncertainty.
Return: -5.07%; alpha: -4.43%. - SCHW — confidence 65%. Latest_price: 95.71 USD, quote_time: 2026-10-14T14:38:17Z, source: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SCHW, live. 5 daily bars (oldest to newest): 2026-10-07 O 95.94 H 96.27 L 94.70 C 95.58 V 7,122,100; 2026-10-08 O 95.60 H 97.18 L 95.43 C 96.87 V 6,570,400; 2026-10-09 O 97.48 H 97.48 L 96.37 C 96.70 V 6,499,800; 2026-10-12 O 97.07 H 97.82 L 96.69 C 97.06 V 4,636,300; 2026-10-13 O 97.30 H 97.69 L 95.81 C 95.94 V 6,859,600.
return_5d_pct: -0.89%
high_20d: 100.61
low_20d: 94.70
avg_volume_20d: 6,500,000
SCHW reports Q3 2026 earnings on October 15 before the opening bell. Adjusted net income is anticipated to rise 27% to $1.66 per share. The stock has been range-bound but recently pulled back to near the 20-day low. A strong earnings report could be a positive catalyst, especially if guidance is upbeat. The event is scheduled, not yet occurred. Anticipation may lead to modest buying before the release. The main risk is that expectations are already elevated, and a miss could drive the stock below the 20-day low of 94.70. The observed price action shows consolidation, and volume has been moderate. Confidence is moderate.
Return: -3.33%; alpha: -2.69%. - GME — confidence 60%. Latest_price: 27.87 USD, quote_time: 2026-10-14T14:39:13Z, source: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GME, live. 5 daily bars (oldest to newest): 2026-10-07 O 24.53 H 24.74 L 24.41 C 24.58 V 7,594,200; 2026-10-08 O 24.10 H 25.82 L 24.04 C 25.28 V 13,060,100; 2026-10-09 O 25.23 H 26.76 L 24.90 C 26.56 V 16,294,900; 2026-10-12 O 26.21 H 27.25 L 25.77 C 27.23 V 9,114,200; 2026-10-13 O 27.10 H 27.53 L 26.75 C 27.22 V 12,622,500.
return_5d_pct: 9.94%
high_20d: 27.53
low_20d: 21.39
avg_volume_20d: 10,000,000
GME has surged nearly 10% over five sessions driven by CEO Ryan Cohen's continued buying spree, with the latest disclosure of 844,130 shares purchased. This is a material news event that has already occurred. The stock is up 2.39% intraday. Momentum could continue as retail traders follow the CEO's lead. However, the stock is extended and could face profit-taking. The observed volume has been elevated, supporting the move. The strongest counter-evidence is the lack of a fundamental catalyst beyond insider buying. A break below the 20-day low of 21.39 would invalidate the bullish thesis. Confidence is moderate due to the speculative nature.
Return: -1.61%; alpha: -0.98%. - BAC — confidence 62%. Latest_price: 49.73 USD, quote_time: 2026-10-14T14:39:26Z, source: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BAC, live. 5 daily bars (oldest to newest): 2026-10-07 O 53.19 H 53.68 L 52.91 C 53.52 V 30,913,500; 2026-10-08 O 52.98 H 53.61 L 52.24 C 53.61 V 59,809,500; 2026-10-09 O 53.41 H 54.40 L 53.41 C 54.32 V 28,781,400; 2026-10-12 O 54.50 H 54.93 L 54.24 C 54.58 V 23,975,700; 2026-10-13 O 54.44 H 54.85 L 53.64 C 53.96 V 44,949,900.
return_5d_pct: -0.24%
high_20d: 64.43
low_20d: 52.24
avg_volume_20d: 35,000,000
BAC reported Q3 2026 earnings on October 14 before the open, missing EPS estimates and facing a $1.2 billion fine for money laundering and sanctions violations. The stock is down 7.85% intraday. The negative news is already out, but the magnitude of the fine and the miss may continue to weigh on the stock as analysts revise estimates. The observed reaction is strongly negative, and volume is elevated. The strongest counter-evidence is the possibility of a bounce after the initial sell-off, but the fundamental damage from the fine could persist. A close above the 20-day high of 64.43 would invalidate the bearish thesis. Confidence is moderate.
Return: 3.34%; alpha: -2.70%. - PGR — confidence 60%. Latest_price: 202.65 USD, quote_time: 2026-10-14T14:34:01Z, source: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PGR, live. 5 daily bars (oldest to newest): 2026-10-07 O 211.76 H 215.74 L 211.76 C 214.12 V 2,551,200; 2026-10-08 O 215.31 H 220.04 L 214.65 C 218.73 V 2,749,400; 2026-10-09 O 217.50 H 220.17 L 217.16 C 217.43 V 1,466,200; 2026-10-12 O 219.01 H 220.84 L 218.30 C 220.28 V 1,864,400; 2026-10-13 O 220.96 H 223.78 L 219.86 C 222.88 V 3,501,000.
return_5d_pct: 5.11%
high_20d: 225.45
low_20d: 201.60
avg_volume_20d: 2,500,000
PGR reported Q3 2026 earnings on October 14 before the open, missing EPS by $0.05 and revenue falling short of estimates. The stock is down 9.08% intraday, the largest single-day drop since April 2025. The negative reaction is already significant, but the magnitude of the miss and the potential for further analyst downgrades could extend the decline. The observed volume is elevated, confirming selling pressure. The strongest counter-evidence is the possibility of an oversold bounce, but the fundamental disappointment may cap upside. A close above the 20-day high of 225.45 would invalidate the bearish thesis. Confidence is moderate.
Return: 7.46%; alpha: -6.82%.
How models have done in Event Gaps
ForecastNest's own settled Event Gaps runs at this horizon, up to and including this one. Members' own research is not counted. Event Gaps forecasts must have been created during regular US market hours to enter these statistics. Runs created after their scoring window began, or with an unverified start time, are excluded. The chart is the average alpha vs SPY per run. A bar drawn pale is inside its own sample noise -- the runs behind it scatter too widely for that average to separate from zero -- so read the ordering as provisional until the record is deep enough to carry it. The table below adds how many of the five picks beat SPY, which is a steadier measure on a short record because it counts several picks a run rather than one result.
Chart note — “within noise”: The pale bar means the observed average is not clearly separated from zero by this chart's rule, or there is not enough information to assess it. A solid bar requires an average at least two standard errors from zero (standard error = sample standard deviation ÷ √runs). Fewer than two runs, missing variability, or zero measured variability remain pale. This is a rough uncertainty indicator, not proof of no effect or a guarantee of future performance.
| Model | Runs | Avg picks with positive alpha | Avg alpha vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Opus 5.5 | 3 | 53.33% | +0.85% |
| ChatGPT | 1 | 60.00% | +0.50% |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | 12 | 53.33% | +0.45% |
| DeepSeek | 14 | 53.21% | +0.25% |
| Grok 4.5 | 13 | 44.62% | +0.19% |
| Perplexity | 13 | 44.62% | +0.10% |
| Grok 4 | 1 | 40.00% | -0.09% |
| Claude Opus 5 | 1 | 40.00% | -0.25% |
| GPT-6 | 7 | 37.14% | -0.25% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | 14 | 48.57% | -0.29% |
| Gemini 3 Pro | 2 | 30.00% | -0.60% |
| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | 8 | 32.50% | -1.33% |
| GPT-5.6 Sol | 7 | 40.00% | -1.42% |
| Meta AI - Muse Spark | 1 | 40.00% | -1.84% |
| Kimi | 1 | 20.00% | -5.18% |
View settlement prices
| Symbol | Start | End | Source | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AA | 40.50000000 | 39.66000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AA/history/ | |
| AAPL | 345.71900000 | 344.58000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/history/ | |
| AMZN | 256.72000000 | 252.53000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMZN/history/ | |
| ASML | 1718.65500000 | 1617.49000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ASML/history/ | |
| BAC | 49.76500000 | 51.42500000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BAC/history/ | |
| BLK | 1083.87000000 | 1085.29000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BLK/history/ | |
| BNY | 136.12000000 | 136.66000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BNY/history/ | |
| GME | 27.88000000 | 27.43000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GME/history/ | |
| GOOGL | 355.21190000 | 349.88000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOGL/history/ | |
| MS | 181.41000000 | 178.14500000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MS/history/ | |
| MSFT | 539.15000000 | 534.19500000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history/ | |
| NVDA | 223.41500000 | 215.80000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/history/ | |
| PGR | 203.28330000 | 218.44000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PGR/history/ | |
| PLD | 132.44500000 | 128.97000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PLD/history/ | |
| PNC | 214.69000000 | 216.52000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PNC/history/ | |
| SCHW | 95.76000000 | 92.57500000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SCHW/history/ | |
| SPY | 772.43150000 | 767.54000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY/history/ | |
| TSM | 436.02000000 | 413.93500000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSM/history/ | |
| USB | 56.13500000 | 57.49000000 | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/USB/history/ |
Standard prompt event-gap-v13, SHA-256 4dd64d35123cfa20b56565c026914b7a7d413446bb28a1d3b2e313058539ce65. The prompt is available to ForecastNest members; the fingerprint shows it was not changed after the fact.
Calculation: event-gap-v3-window-direction.